How far is Iran willing to go to protect its friends and allies? — Inside Story

[0:00] Iran is demanding an end to attacks on Hezbollah, while Israel and the U.S. say Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire. [0:08] Iran's regional allies have already been degraded. [0:11] So with the future of Hezbollah at stake, can Tehran afford to compromise? [0:16] And what does that mean for its influence? [0:18] This is Inside Story. [0:35] Hello again, I'm James Bayes. [0:37] For decades, Iran has been cultivating what it calls the axis of resistance. [0:42] It's a coalition of armed groups backed by Tehran's money and weapons. [0:48] They aim to tip the scales of regional power in Iran's favour. [0:52] But that influence looks to be on shaky ground. [0:54] Israeli forces are expanding their invasion in southern Lebanon and bombarding Beirut. [1:00] They say it's part of a campaign to eliminate Hezbollah. [1:03] So could Hezbollah be a sticking point in ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran? [1:09] And how far is Iran willing to go to back its allies? [1:12] We'll put those questions and others to our panel of guests in a moment. [1:16] But first, this report from Michael Appel. [1:20] The Israeli military says it hit more than 100 targets across Lebanon on Wednesday. [1:27] Daylight revealed the aftermath of one of its heaviest bombardments since early March, [1:32] when Hezbollah attacked Israel in response to the assassination of Iran's supreme leader. [1:37] Ostensibly, a ceasefire had been in effect in Lebanon since November 2024, [1:43] but the Israeli military violated it daily. [1:47] And despite Iran's objection, the ceasefire with the U.S. [1:51] hasn't stopped the Israeli assault on Hezbollah or its invasion of southern Lebanon, [1:57] putting Tehran in a difficult position, [2:00] caught between support for its ally and a path out of the war. [2:03] Our choice is to confront them to the utmost degree of self-sacrifice. [2:10] We will not surrender. [2:12] We will defend ourselves with our capabilities and our faith, no matter the sacrifice. [2:17] It's that resistance to Israeli occupation that led to the founding of Hezbollah, [2:23] with Iranian funding and training 44 years ago. [2:27] Israel assassinated its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, [2:31] in an airstrike in September 2024. [2:34] Hamas in Gaza is another armed group that's received significant Iranian support. [2:41] Israel killed its founders, Ahmed Yasin and Abdulaziz Al-Rantisi, back in 2004, [2:48] and more recently several senior officials during the war on Gaza, [2:52] among them Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. [2:57] Instrumental in Iran's ability to build up these proxies in the region [3:00] was the Quds Force, led for decades by Qasem Soleimani. [3:06] Qasem Soleimani has been killed and his bloody rampage is now forever. [3:15] Iran also maintains influence in neighboring Iraq through a network of armed groups, [3:21] including Qatayb Hezbollah, established after the 2003 U.S. invasion. [3:26] Many of these groups are interwoven into the Iraqi government and security forces [3:33] under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces. [3:37] Another lever of influence at Tehran's disposal is the Ansarallah movement, [3:43] known as the Houthis. [3:44] Their location in Yemen places them within striking distance of Israel [3:48] and enables them to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea through the Babal-Mandab choke point. [3:54] Collectively, these Iranian-backed groups are known as the Axis of Resistance. [4:00] Although degraded by years of Israeli and U.S. attacks, [4:04] they have proved they're still capable of waging asymmetric warfare against military superpowers. [4:10] Mike Lappel, Al Jazeera, for Inside Story. [4:17] Well, let's take a closer look at that relationship between Iran and its regional allies now [4:22] with our panel of guests who are joining us. [4:24] And with me in the studio is Hassan Ahmadiyan, Associate Professor at the University of Tehran. [4:30] He specializes in Iranian foreign policy. [4:34] From Bologna in Italy, we're joined by Rob Geist-Penfold. [4:37] He's a lecturer in international security at King's College London. [4:41] And in Paris, Nadine Khoury, the Executive Director of the Arab Reform Initiative. [4:46] Thank you all for joining us on Inside Story. [4:49] Let me start with you, Hassan. [4:52] And let's start with a big picture question. [4:54] How important is what we know as the Axis of Resistance? [4:59] How important is that to Iran and in its foreign policy strategy? [5:04] Well, it's very important, taking into account that Israel and the United States, [5:10] two nuclear powers, with obvious hostility towards Iran and the war that we saw just, [5:17] you know, the ceasefire starting, but not in Lebanon. [5:21] All of that is very important to Iran because these two don't hide their intentions towards Iran. [5:28] Also, they don't hide their intentions towards Lebanon, towards the Palestinians, [5:32] towards many of these parties that are party to the axis of resistance. [5:38] So there is a common goal of standing up to U.S. impositions in the region and Israeli occupation [5:47] in Palestine, but also around it in southern Lebanon, in Syria, elsewhere. [5:52] And so that common goal brought these groups together to balance off the threat of Israel [5:58] and, in extension, the Israeli, the American threat. [6:02] And so it's, you know, strategically very much important to Iran, [6:06] but also to these parties who have their national agenda. [6:10] In Lebanon, Hezbollah has the South that is under occupation. [6:14] In Palestine, Palestinian struggle, you know, it dates way earlier than the Iranian Revolution of 79. [6:23] So to call them proxies defies the logic that they have their own national agenda. [6:29] But they are connected to Iran because there is a common and shared goal of standing up to occupation [6:35] and also U.S. presence that is, that has been harmful to all of them. [6:41] Nadim, I mean, this is at the center right now of the diplomacy that is supposed to take place [6:48] because the war with Iran, the bombardment by the U.S. and Israel, has ended for now. [6:56] But the war in Lebanon has not. [6:59] And Iran says the deal was that that had to end too. [7:06] Exactly. [7:07] And I think that the real point of tension here is for these groups, [7:12] between the agenda that is Iranian versus the agenda that is national, [7:19] how much weight is given to each one of these elements. [7:24] Sometimes they may be aligned, for instance, when Hezbollah was liberating southern Lebanon. [7:30] But there have been other instances since then where it clearly, Hezbollah has favored points [7:38] that go more, you know, has prioritized the Iranian part of its strategy as opposed to a purely national strategy. [7:46] So, for instance, when Israel was violating the ceasefire after 2024, [7:51] Hezbollah did not respond almost for a year and a half. [7:56] And it was only when the Supreme Leader Khamenei was actually assassinated that Hezbollah entered into the force. [8:05] And of course, same issue happened in 2000 when the Israeli army receded. [8:10] Hezbollah should have turned at that point to the Lebanese state and said, [8:13] look, I did all of this, but now we need to build a national strategy of defense. [8:18] They didn't do that. [8:20] And I think that's the core point. [8:22] And again, the different groups are not the same. [8:25] So maybe where the balance is with Hezbollah is different than where the Houthis are, [8:29] which is also different where some of the Iraqi groups are. [8:32] Rob, I mean, one of the reasons we're talking so much about this is obviously the bombardment in Lebanon. [8:39] I'll come to that in a moment. [8:40] But the fact that Trump accepted the Iranian plan, not accepted the points in it, [8:47] but accepted it as a basis for negotiation in Islamabad. [8:52] These 10 points, which are pretty maximalist if you look at them in full, that Iran wants. [8:59] But Trump said, and I quote, we received a 10 point presupposal from Iran. [9:04] And I believe it's a workable basis on which to negotiate. [9:07] Now, among those 10 points, an end of the war against all components of the axis of resistance. [9:14] That's one of the things that Iran is demanding in these points. [9:17] Well, this goes way further than the Iran deal back in 2015. [9:22] This is something that the U.S. wouldn't discuss then, would it? [9:25] It was only going to discuss the nuclear side of things. [9:31] Right. [9:31] And this is the issue with this so-called ceasefire overall, in that not only is it contentious in itself, [9:40] what remains even more contentious is the fact that no one seems to agree about what everyone agreed about or didn't agree about. [9:49] So, yes, you know, you're right to mention, James, that Trump said that these 10 points were the basis for negotiation. [9:55] We've since heard from Caroline Levitt, the White House press secretary, [9:59] saying that the 10 points that the U.S. agreed to were not the 10 points that Iran presented publicly. [10:06] So the fact of the matter is, is that we don't know what Iran and the U.S. actually agreed to. [10:11] We don't know what both sides think they agreed to. [10:15] And then you have the added complication, which is particularly pertinent to Lebanon, [10:20] that various parties to the conflict were not represented at the table. [10:25] The Gulf states were not represented at the table, but also Israel was not represented at the table. [10:30] Now, you had Netanyahu come out in a face-saving press conference and say, you know, [10:35] we were consulted, we were involved, we agreed to this ceasefire. [10:38] But looking at reality, the reality in Lebanon, this looks like another case of Israel agreeing to something verbally or on paper, [10:48] but then in practice imposing facts on the ground that seek to change that status quo. [10:53] So I think it's particularly significant that Israel's attacks on Lebanon yesterday were fiercer than we've seen for a very, very long time, [11:01] leading to a significant death toll, the majority of them civilians. [11:04] This is not just about going after Hezbollah. [11:08] You could argue there's a broader strategy at play here. [11:12] That is to put so much stress on the ceasefire that it collapses. [11:16] And I think that is Israel's game plan. [11:19] And unfortunately, Lebanon is once again a pawn in this broader game, [11:25] this power play between Israel and, of course, Iran. [11:29] And it's the Lebanese people who are once again paying the high price. [11:32] Hassan, would you agree with that? [11:35] I mean, the bombardment that we've seen, the worst so far in the war, [11:40] the bombardment of Lebanon led to criticism from some of the U.S.'s close allies. [11:46] France and the U.K. and the European Union have condemned the scale of the bombing. [11:52] I mean, is Israel now trying to destroy the ceasefire with this bombing? [11:58] I think, as we had a discussion before, Israel is bombing the ceasefire through Lebanon. [12:03] By bombing Lebanon, it wants to derail everything. [12:07] And I think we have two parties in the negotiations, not negotiations, [12:12] the back and forth between Iran and the United States with Pakistan as the mediator. [12:18] Pakistan, the mediator, and Iran put Lebanon's name as part of this ceasefire. [12:25] So we are seeing a clear violation of that ceasefire. [12:28] The Americans are saying, no, it wasn't. [12:30] But according to the prime minister in Pakistan, it was. [12:35] And according to the Iranian, it was. [12:37] And so the Iranians are talking about stopping the process that started yesterday, [12:43] that is the ceasefire. [12:44] That's a hard call because that would be giving Israel what it wants. [12:50] But I think the Iranians have made it clear they will not leave Lebanon [12:55] and let it suffer under Israeli bombardment constantly. [13:01] Either the two countries go out of the war together, [13:05] or I think we are up for more escalation. [13:08] Because strategically, Iran has seen, after 7th of October, [13:14] Israeli expanded from one file to the other, to the other, [13:18] until reaching Iran and imposing a war and yet another war after eight months. [13:23] Because there was no unity in this action against Israel [13:30] and its provocations around Palestine and Lebanon and elsewhere. [13:34] And so that strategic mentality is telling the Iranians, [13:39] we cannot leave Lebanon under bombardment. [13:43] We have to do something about it. [13:44] Ergo, you could hear talks about closure of the Strait of Hormuz, [13:49] even worse than before. [13:51] And then, of course, threats by Majid Mousavi, [13:55] the head of the Aerospace Division, [13:57] responsible for the missiles and drone programs, [13:59] the main pillars of Iran's military capabilities, [14:04] that hitting Lebanon is hitting Iran and we will not stand aside. [14:08] And so we are going, I think, towards escalation unless [14:12] and until the United States leashes Israel. [14:16] Nadim, I think it's worth giving a little bit of context for our viewers on this, [14:21] because Hezbollah was already damaged and degraded. [14:26] Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, killed in 2024. [14:30] And the rest of this so-called axis of resistance [14:34] is nowhere near as powerful as it once was, [14:37] because it used to include the Assad regime in Syria until that fell. [14:43] And, of course, in Gaza, Hamas has been seriously weakened. [14:47] Yes, the axis of resistance has been weakened. [14:53] And it's also been weakened, frankly, [14:55] because there is less support outside of its usual supporters in the Shia community, [15:04] in large part because Hezbollah, for instance, [15:07] intervened in the war in Syria against Syrians by supporting Assad and others. [15:13] And also in Lebanon, Hezbollah, for instance, is accused. [15:19] And there is a lot of evidence that they were definitely part [15:22] or facilitated some of the assassinations about 10 or 15 years ago. [15:28] And they stood up against the protesters in Lebanon in 2019 [15:31] that wanted to see a reform of the system. [15:33] So the axis of resistance gets a bit more complicated, the story. [15:42] In part, no one wants, I mean, everyone recognizes Israeli war crimes. [15:46] Everyone recognizes the harm that Israel has done to all of Lebanon, [15:51] continues to do, and the occupation. [15:53] And the Lebanese want to see their land liberated. [15:56] The problem is Lebanon does not want to see its sovereign decision [16:00] of entering war and peace, being hijacked by Iran. [16:04] And this is what's happening here. [16:06] So Hezbollah decided first to enter war against Israel [16:10] to support Hamas after October 7th, [16:15] and now to re-attack Israel while the, you know, [16:20] in support and in revenge for the assassination of Khamenei. [16:23] Now, no one is denying that Israel has, as well, [16:28] aggressive intentions towards Lebanon. [16:30] But the best strategy, the sovereign strategy, [16:33] is something that Lebanon should decide. [16:36] And Iran is acting as if there is no Lebanese government. [16:40] The actual Lebanese government, where Hezbollah is represented, [16:43] took a decision to declare the Iranian ambassador persona non grata. [16:48] Now, Iran may like this decision, or it may not like this decision, [16:52] but this is a democratically elected, legitimate government [16:56] where everyone is represented. [16:58] And what does Iran do? [16:59] They decide to ignore that decision. [17:02] OK. [17:03] This is the real fundamental issue. [17:05] Iran has to respect Lebanon as a state. [17:07] You made some important points there, Nadeem. [17:08] Let me bring in Hassan there. [17:10] So Hezbollah is not the Lebanese government. [17:15] It's just one element of Lebanese society. [17:18] It's very powerful militarily, but it can't make decisions for all of Lebanon. [17:23] It's wrong, isn't it? [17:24] Of course. [17:25] I mean, the Lebanese went for a ceasefire eight months ago, [17:29] nine months ago, after Israel... [17:32] I'm sorry, before the Iran war. [17:35] They went for a ceasefire, and it continued for 15 months. [17:39] And during all this time, the Israelis never cease to attack Lebanon. [17:46] We have Israel cats, the Israeli defence minister, talking about Israel getting ready to attack [17:54] Lebanon, but Lebanon started it before their timing. [17:59] And so, you know, talks of Lebanon, Hezbollah putting all Lebanon at risk, I think, defies that [18:08] So why did Hezbollah fire this time, Hassan, at the beginning of the war, 2nd of March, [18:13] when it didn't during the war last year, the 12-day war? [18:17] And is that because the orders came from Tehran? [18:19] It didn't. [18:20] Actually, my understanding of why they entered is that violations kept ongoing. [18:28] Roughly 400 people were assassinated during this so-called ceasefire. [18:34] It was a one-sided ceasefire. [18:35] They wanted to be in this with Iran, to be part of the negotiations afterward. [18:42] And the Iranians seem to be listening to that and insisting on it, that Lebanon is part of it. [18:48] We won't go for a ceasefire without Lebanon. [18:51] We hear all Iranian officials. [18:53] There seem to be no daylight within Iran on the need to support Lebanon against Hezbollah, [19:00] against Israel, because that would defy the logic of this alliance. [19:07] But another point that was mentioned, I think after the war last year and the year before against Hezbollah and against Iran, [19:16] the talks of Iran and Hezbollah being weakened was proliferated in the media. [19:22] And I think that was part of the logic that the Americans were convinced by the Israelis to attack them [19:28] because they were on their knees, they needed the final blow. [19:31] And so we saw what they did in this war, including Hezbollah and Iran. [19:35] Let me bring in Rob, if I may. [19:38] Rob, there's a big question here of how independent these groups that are the axis of resistance are from Tehran. [19:47] Would you say when you look at them that Hezbollah is the most loyal of these groups? [19:54] Because there are reports that there are Iranian officers in Hezbollah. [20:02] Absolutely, James. [20:03] Hezbollah is, you know, the original, I guess, minister, client or ally of Iran, [20:09] whatever you want to call it, within the axis of resistance. [20:12] Remember, it was started, as you mentioned earlier in the program, [20:15] because of Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon. [20:18] So it was a way for Iran to project its power and its influence. [20:24] They are also, of course, they share an ideological affinity, too, [20:30] more so than other groups, for example, like Hamas, who are Sunni Muslims, [20:35] or the Houthis, who are Zaidis, who, despite being Shia, [20:38] is a very different type of Shia to the predominant religion in Iran, for example. [20:44] So there is an ideological component here and a very, very long history. [20:49] Both sides have fought together in, for example, the Syrian civil war. [20:54] So this goes back a very, very long way. [20:57] But I just want to stress here that when we're talking about the axis of resistance, [21:02] the axis of resistance is something that I think is less important in Iranian strategic planning lately. [21:08] We saw in 2024, in April and October, Iran directly attack Israel for the first time [21:16] in order to defend the axis of resistance. [21:19] This was Iran completely inverting the entire strategy here, [21:23] because the whole point of the axis of resistance is to project power and deter Israel [21:28] without inviting retaliation on itself. [21:30] Those attacks, that attempt by Iran to project deterrence, spectacularly failed. [21:35] They did not do enough damage on Israel, and they painted a target on themselves. [21:40] That led us to the 12-day war, and of course, that led us to the most recent conflict as well. [21:45] And that explains Iran's behavior in that recent conflict. [21:49] It is a direct response to the failure of the axis of resistance, [21:53] in that you now have Iran trying to cause so much chaos, [21:56] using U.S. base as an excuse to attack all the GCC states, [22:00] that is causing so much chaos in order to try and restore its deterrent at a state-on-state level. [22:06] It is no longer reliant on the axis of resistance. [22:09] It is trying to do as much damage as it can itself. [22:12] Nadim, we had a discussion when we were planning this program [22:15] of which was the most powerful of these groups. [22:19] Is it Hezbollah? [22:20] Is it the forces in Iraq, because there's a very long border [22:25] and very shared interests with Iraq and Iran and the Shia community in Iran? [22:31] Or is it actually the Houthis? [22:33] Now, the Houthis are further away geographically, [22:36] but strategically, they have real power, do they not? [22:43] They do. [22:43] But look, even a weakened Hezbollah remains, I think, for Iran, the crown jewel [22:49] because of the organic links that exist between Hezbollah and Iran, [22:53] which don't exist with the Houthis. [22:56] So you can't, you know, you're not fully comparing apples to apples. [23:00] Hezbollah believes in the wilayat al-faqir, [23:02] which is a challenge for Lebanese sovereignty [23:04] when you have a key political party that ultimately believes [23:08] in a political entity that is supranational [23:10] and doesn't share the rest of the sort of pact with the rest of the Lebanese. [23:15] But clearly, Hezbollah historically was the most disciplined. [23:21] It actually, Iran was able to use it to train many of the militias in Iraq. [23:27] There were also clear reports of Hezbollah going to train the Houthis. [23:33] So I think Hezbollah remains a formidable power. [23:38] The relationship, you know, there's a lot of discussion going on [23:41] about the autonomy of decision-making within Hezbollah and vis-a-vis Iran. [23:46] Clearly, someone like Hassan Nasrallah had, [23:50] I think, was widely respected by the Iranian leadership, [23:53] could find a way to reconcile between Iran's interests [23:57] and what he perceived to be Hezbollah [24:00] and, to a certain extent, Lebanon's interests at the time. [24:04] But even in, you know, at Nasrallah's height of power, [24:09] there were reports, actually by Qasem Soleimani himself, [24:12] that in the middle of the 2006 war, [24:15] and this is something that Qasem Soleimani recounted, [24:17] I think, on Iranian TV shortly before his death, [24:20] he was saying he was there in the bunker with Hassan Nasrallah, [24:24] took him by hand to rush away. [24:27] So as a Lebanese, it makes us wonder, [24:29] who was running the war in 2006? [24:31] Was it Qasem Soleimani? [24:33] How many IRGC officers were there on the ground? [24:36] Who are they accountable to? [24:38] We know that in 1982, in the chaos of the Lebanese civil war, [24:42] there were, by some reports, at least 1,500 IRGC members [24:46] that came through Lebanon to the Bicca to form Hezbollah. [24:51] Now, Hezbollah is Lebanese. [24:53] I'm not one of those who says that, you know, [24:54] they're an intricate, essential part of Lebanon today. [24:58] But this organic link to Iran is constantly eroding [25:05] Lebanon's ability to rebuild a state project. [25:11] And today, it's no longer just about rebuilding a state. [25:15] It has deeply affected national cohesion in Lebanon. [25:18] And this has to be addressed. [25:21] If I may, Nadim. [25:22] Hassan, I mean, now the 10 points are there [25:27] and may form a basis for further negotiation in Islamabad, [25:32] if the talks even proceed. [25:35] If they're on the agenda, [25:37] are they something that Iran is prepared to make compromises on? [25:41] If Iran gets other security guarantees, [25:44] the war won't start again. [25:45] Will it make compromises on these regional groups [25:48] and perhaps even give them up completely? [25:50] I don't think so. [25:51] I think some of the points that are in this proposal [25:56] are not for negotiations, [25:58] according to the Iranian rhetoric at this point, [26:01] the official line. [26:02] There are three elements that I think, [26:05] generally taken from these 10 points, [26:08] three elements that are essential to Iran. [26:11] Firstly, I think the economics, sanctions, [26:14] the Strait of Hormuz, [26:16] one of them or one based on the other, [26:18] guaranteed by the other. [26:20] Secondly, the security guarantees, [26:23] which again is not about the U.S. giving guarantees [26:26] because the U.S. words mean nothing to Iran [26:29] due to its past commitments that were all violated. [26:33] Their main guarantees, [26:34] their capabilities and the Strait of Hormuz, [26:38] that's the main guarantee. [26:39] And that's why Iran is insisting on managing it [26:43] because it doesn't want it to see it being used [26:46] by the United States or Israel in the future [26:49] if there is any other conflict. [26:52] The third element that guarantees also, [26:55] and is guaranteed by the Strait, [26:57] but also in the other way around, [27:00] it guarantees is the unity of fronts. [27:04] That is, there's a regional war, [27:06] we need a regional ceasefire [27:08] or there won't be a ceasefire. [27:10] The Iranians are insistent on this. [27:12] There are two out of the 10 points [27:15] that are based on this. [27:17] Lebanon is named in one specifically. [27:19] Lebanon is that point. [27:22] The second is the ceasefire should include [27:25] all Iran allies, [27:26] which I think Iran will not give up. [27:29] Thank you very much, [27:30] Hassan Ahmadiyan, Rob Geist, Penfold, [27:32] and Nadim Khouri. [27:33] And thank you too for watching. [27:35] If you'd like to get more context and analysis [27:37] and detail on all aspects of the war, [27:39] remember to check out our website, aljazeera.com. [27:42] We always want to know what you think too. [27:44] Post your views on our Facebook page. [27:46] That's facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside Story [27:49] or on X, tag us with your comments. [27:51] We are at AJ Inside Story. [27:54] From me, James Bayes and the team here. [27:55] That's it for now. [27:56] Al Jazeera's coverage from across the Middle East [27:59] and around the world continues in a moment.