How does targeting water supply during war worsen the scarcity crisis? — The Stream

[0:00] As the world is focused on oil and the impact of soaring energy prices, there is another vulnerability that could hit much closer to home. [0:08] Oil and gas has built up the countries here in the Gulf. [0:11] But can you guess what is vital for their survival? [0:14] Water, specifically desalinated water. [0:17] And during the U.S. and Israel's war in Iran, desalination plants have been damaged on both sides of the Gulf. [0:22] But, of course, it's not just the Gulf. [0:24] The whole world is facing a water crisis. [0:27] What does it all mean? [0:27] I'm Stephanie Decker, and welcome to The Street. [0:29] Now, to discuss all of this, we are joined by Zeyna Munir, a senior expert in environmental politics and climate programs with a focus on the Middle East and North Africa region. [0:45] She's in Uppsala, Sweden. [0:46] And we have Professor Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, also known as the U.N. think tank on water. [0:56] And he joins us from Toronto. [0:58] Now, before we start our discussion, I want to play a clip, because the decision to target desalination plants could have a major impact. [1:05] On access to drinking water here in the region. [1:08] And that's a terrifying prospect for many living here. [1:11] Drinking water has become a target again in the Iran war. [1:17] Iran struck an electricity and water desalination plant in Kuwait. [1:23] Kuwait still has drinking water. [1:25] It's repairing the damage as we speak, but said the attack was brutal. [1:30] The country urged its people to remain calm. [1:33] It would be hard to remain calm if you're in the region, though. [1:37] Desalination plants remove salt from water to make it drinkable. [1:42] Take that away if you're based in the middle of a desert, like the Gulf countries are, and you're in so much trouble. [1:51] Iran denied that it hit Kuwait's desalination plant. [1:55] And certainly both sides accusing each other of doing the same thing. [1:57] Kaveh, before we broaden it on a more global scale, right, how vital is water, desalinated water, to the Gulf region? [2:08] And what kind of a position is this war putting it in? [2:11] Is there an active threat? [2:12] The Middle East and North Africa is one of the driest regions of the planet where water resources are very scarce, as we know. [2:26] The smaller states of the Persian Gulf rely heavily on desalination plants. [2:33] Indeed, in this war, Iran is the only party that doesn't heavily rely on desalination plants for its water supply. [2:44] So when we don't have diversified resources, that means a damage or disruption of one of the, the only source available can cause major, major disruptions to the whole economy with health implications, with a lot of trouble created for the civilians who have no agency in this war. [3:10] And as we have seen in this war, it's, the war on desalination plants became, I'm afraid, a bit normalized. [3:19] It was for, there was first a report of an attack on the desalination plant in the Khashmai land in the Persian Gulf, then a report of a damage to a desalination facility in Bahrain. [3:32] And then the chain started with reported cases in Kuwait and so on. [3:39] And also an explicit threat of an attack on the desalination plants of Iran by the president of the United States and a threat by the IRGC of retaliation. [3:52] So this was part of the story, the narratives that all sides were promoting. [3:58] And this only means a violation of international law because these infrastructures are to serve the civilians and attacking them serves no military gain. [4:09] Absolutely. And we had that Trump on truth social where he literally said, we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, oil wells, [4:21] cargo island and possibly all desalination plants. I mean, as you mentioned there, this is the violation of the Geneva Conventions, right? [4:28] This is civilian infrastructure, not just drinking water, but, you know, health facilities use water. [4:33] Zeyna, how prepared are these Gulf states for a plan B? Let's say, worst case scenario, there is a direct, we are, you know, speculating here, but I just want to be interested. [4:47] What is the plan B? How could they survive if their major desalination plants get targeted and put out of commission? [4:56] Actually, the desalination network of the Gulf is inherently fragile. [5:01] The majority of desalination facilities are located directly on the coast, making them easy targets for missiles or drone strikes from across the Gulf. [5:12] Furthermore, these plants are massive energy consumers and are often integrated with power plants, creating a dual vulnerability. [5:20] In my opinion, an attack on the energy grid could simultaneously cripple both power and water supplies. [5:26] Direct attacks are not the only threat. A major oil spill, for example, in the narrow waters of the Gulf could contaminate the seawater intakes, forcing desalination plants to halt operation for weeks or even months. [5:42] Actually, intelligent assessments have long recognized this weakness. [5:46] According to CIA report that was launched in 2010, this report warned that attacks on desalination facilities could trigger national crisis in several Gulf countries, as most have water resurface that would last only about a week. [6:03] Therefore, actually, the desalination plants in the Gulf are inherently fragile, and this will, as my colleague explained, could lead to severe humanitarian crisis and wider societal and economic complications. [6:18] We're talking about desalination plants there. [6:20] The GCC is particularly reliant, as we've been saying, on desalination plants for its water. [6:25] Now, as you can see on this map, the Gulf countries rely heavily on desalination for their drinking water needs, since the Middle East contains less than 2% of the world's renewable freshwater resources. [6:37] Now, along with North Africa, it accounts for more than 40% of global seawater desalination capacity. [6:46] Kave, how we've seen some of the desalination plants damaged, right? [6:52] There is a lot of talk. We're now in very uncertain times, I would say, right? [6:56] Are you concerned that things could escalate when it comes to the desalination plants? [7:02] And would that have not just a local impact, but a regional one, too? Or would it be contained? [7:10] Yes, I'm extremely concerned because, you know, the war started with the violation of international law. [7:17] And after it started, we have seen no shame in frequent violation of the laws of war. [7:27] It's a little, I mean, it's strange and ironic to say that even wars have laws and regulations that must be respected. [7:36] What we saw in this war is normalization of a violation of a crime. [7:43] This is something that should get us worried not only about this region, but the rest of the world. [7:50] Like if we continue to undermine the laws and regulations that we have collectively developed, a system that is in place to protect us during these hard times, then the future can be chaotic. [8:05] If you think it's normal to create thirst for the civilians, if you think it's normal and okay to disrupt industrial and economic activities, hurt the tourists, hurt the economy of these nations, [8:20] then I think it's very clear that you have no respect for humanity. [8:25] So it creates a major crisis. [8:29] And as we heard, it's not only about a direct attack on a desalination plan. [8:34] You get a power system out of business, you can't hurt the water system. [8:39] We know that Iran, for example, is not relying heavily on desalination plans, but it has other sources. [8:45] If you attack the power plants in Iran, that is enough to stop the pumping stations from working, the water distribution system can't stop working, and desalination plans can't stop working. [8:59] So there are other components of the water system that are also heavily relying on the electrical system. [9:09] Then we have the issue of pollution in the Persian Gulf, in the coastal regions. [9:14] If you're sinking tankers, oil tankers, ships, and other things, you're creating pollution, and you're hurting the marine environment, the intake of desalination plans can be exposed. [9:25] There have been also extreme cyber attacks on the water infrastructure during this war. [9:30] Fortunately, no success yet, but the fact that this is okay and there is no act, there is no Security Council decision on it or resolution on it, [9:42] or even reporting on it is worrying me because that can create major lasting impacts, and more importantly, a fact like, I think, normalization of hurting humans. [9:57] As we saw it during the previous wars, we have seen it in the Gulf Wars, we have seen it in the invasion of Gaza, that water can be weaponized. [10:08] And I think this is an important thing for humanity. [10:11] We have to help stop this madness. [10:14] Well, certainly it's leading a lot of people to question whether international law even still stands, right? [10:21] When it's only applied, it seems, not to everyone in the same way. [10:26] Zayna, we were hearing there about all the potential scenarios and the concerns and how serious this is. [10:32] What kind of contingency plans do these countries have for, let's say, if the desalination plans are taken out of commission, right? [10:41] Are we looking at a couple of days, a couple of weeks that they can sustain themselves, months? [10:46] Like, what is the time frame? [10:51] Actually, the efforts in the GCC countries have been accelerating in the last period in order to enhance desalination plans infrastructure. [11:02] However, at a time of crisis, actually, these desalination plans cannot survive for long times. [11:09] As I mentioned, only a few days or maybe a few weeks. [11:12] Therefore, actually, in my opinion, weaponizing water infrastructure in the GCC countries has become kind of grave patterns in nowadays conflicts. [11:24] And actually, it reflects multiple overlapping motives that go far beyond the immediate physical damage. [11:31] In my opinion, research on weaponization of water shows that water system carries strategic, tactical, and psychological value, [11:38] which often drives their targeting during conflict. [11:42] Cutting off water supplies can serve tactical military purposes, as we have seen when Iran claimed that the U.S.-Israeli military coalition has targeted desalination plants in Qashma Island. [11:57] This actually served a military purpose, such as designating bombing station or desalination plants as military objective to slow the advance of the adversaries or the opposing party. [12:08] At the same time, broader strategic goals often include undermining governance, coerging political concession, and even manipulating demographic conditions by forcing displacement or collectively punishing civilian population, turning essential water infrastructure into a tool of coercion and societal pressure. [12:26] Even when not directly attacked, water system frequently collapse under the cumulative effects of urban warfare, magnifying the humanitarian crisis and the societal impacts on innocent civilians. [12:39] However, in my assessment, the most significant impact is psychological. [12:45] In conflict affecting regions and in the context of the recent escalation in the Gulf region, families actually live with constant fear and anxiety about when and whether they will have access to safe water. [12:58] We have seen this in other countries or in other cases studies in the region, including Syria, Palestine, and more recently in the Gulf region. [13:07] So actually, the situation is accelerating in a very dangerous and negative way. [13:14] And I think international efforts should come together in order to ensure the protection of water infrastructure, not only in wartime, but also in peacetime. [13:23] Yeah, a lot of people here I know during the last couple of weeks and during times of uncertainty were stocking up on drinking water because they were concerned that that potentially it could come to that, right? [13:34] Well, even if the war now ends without any damage to desalination plants, many people around the world already live with a limited supply of water. [13:42] In fact, earlier this year, the UN published a report saying that the world reached a new level of water scarcity. [13:49] They've termed it water bankruptcy and warned of a major crisis. [13:53] Listen to this. [13:54] We're no longer in a water crisis. [13:57] We're in a global water bankruptcy. [13:59] A new UN report says the world has drained its water savings account. [14:03] We're using and polluting more water than nature can replace. [14:07] And water systems in many regions can't recover to what they used to be. [14:11] Over half of the world's large lakes have shrunk since the 1990s. [14:15] 35% of wetlands have gone since 1970. [14:19] Those at the forefront are small farmers, indigenous communities, and low-income families, while the most powerful have benefited from overuse. [14:26] Now, the data from the UN Institute for Water Environment and Health shows that 75% of people live in countries classified as water insecure or critically water insecure. [14:39] And 2 billion people live on land that is sinking as groundwater aquifers collapse. [14:45] Now, Kava, that is your research. [14:48] Now, water as a weapon of war is not something new, right? [14:53] We've seen this used for centuries. [14:55] But are things different now? [14:57] We are seeing the effects of climate change. [15:00] You're talking about water bankruptcy. [15:02] Like, where are we at globally when it comes to our water supply? [15:06] So, at the global scale, our report claims that we have entered the era of water bankruptcy. [15:16] This doesn't mean that every system around the world, every aquifer or every nation is water bankrupt. [15:22] It simply means that we are seeing more and more nations, river systems, aquifers getting into the mode of water bankruptcy. [15:33] That's a post-crisis stage where even mitigation strategies no longer function and can help you. [15:41] Because systems lose their ability to bounce back. [15:44] The lake you're showing in northwest Iran is a good example of a system that suffers from both insolvency, [15:52] meaning that water use exceeds the renewable rate of water, essentially recharge or water availability, [16:03] but also from irreversibility because the ecosystem has been pressured so much that it has lost its resilience [16:12] and cannot go back to where it was. [16:15] Why does that matter? [16:17] Because, as we've learned in the recent case, when the strain of Hormuz got shut down, the whole world saw its impact and value. [16:29] The world lives based on some equilibrium, is used to or addicted to some equilibrium that it takes for granted. [16:37] We don't appreciate their value until they're interrupted. [16:41] So what happens around the world, that the systems are collapsing one after another, would affect the rest of the world, [16:48] because the whole global risk landscape is being impacted. [16:52] We are interconnected through not only the climate system, but also through trades, through food trades in particular, [17:00] but also other trades of goods, economic relationships, geopolitics, migration, and so on. [17:08] So what happens in India, if a river system or a water basin in India is bankrupt, the Middle East would be impacted. [17:16] The same applies to the rest of the world. [17:18] If you are going to hurt the economy of the United Arab Emirates through attacking its desalination plans, [17:26] the whole world would be impacted and would suffer from the consequences. [17:30] The world was not appreciating the value and significance of the service that this part of the world is providing to the rest of the world. [17:39] We always heard this part of the world being blamed for oil production and greenhouse gas emissions. [17:46] Now that the services have been disrupted, the whole world is appreciating the role that this fragile place is playing in the stability of the world. [17:59] Now, if you make the water systems there even more fragile than what they are right now, then the world would suffer from the consequences. [18:08] It's interesting you talk about interconnectedness there, right? [18:11] Zaina, I want to ask you, do you think, I know your speciality is the Middle East and North Africa, [18:17] but do you think countries in general are preparing themselves? [18:20] We talk about water management, right? The mismanagement, I suppose, of water also being a cause for scarcity. [18:26] Do you think countries are taking what's happening seriously enough and preparing to safeguard, I suppose, salvage what we have left of water? [18:38] As you perfectly described the situation, actually water systems in the region are highly interconnected. [18:46] So disruption in one place can have rebel effects far beyond national borders. [18:51] In the MENA region, this is especially evident in the shared river basins. [18:56] For example, upstream water management on major rivers like the Nile, Tigris, and Euphrates directly affects how much water is available downstream, [19:06] impacting agriculture, drinking water supplies, and overall stability in multiple countries. [19:12] This means that decisions made in one country can quickly translate into economic pressure, [19:18] resource scarcity, and even political tensions elsewhere in the region. [19:23] In addition to this, actually, the international humanitarian law explicitly recognize the critical importance of water infrastructure. [19:33] However, there are many gaps. [19:35] And as I mentioned before in my intervention, ensuring water resilience and protecting critical infrastructure requires international and regional collective action in both peace and wartime. [19:46] In the Gulf states are taking important steps by, for example, decentralizing water systems and expanding strategic service. [19:55] I remember now an example that Abu Zhabi, like the government, has taken serious steps in order to develop larger underground freshwater storage capable of supplying the population for up to 90 days. [20:09] While other countries, for example, like Qatar, have invested in major reservoir systems as emergency puffers, there are also efforts to interconnect national water grids across the GCC countries, allowing countries to support each other during disruptions. [20:26] Let me just jump in there, because I want to play a clip. [20:29] You were talking about what countries were doing. [20:31] We're running out of time, and I still want to get a couple of questions in. [20:34] You were talking about what countries can do to sort of try, right, and help the situation. [20:40] Every cloud has a silver lining, so to speak. [20:43] And the concern over water shortages has led to some people to search for innovative solutions. [20:48] Well, here in Doha, Arsina Khalil went to the factory of Skydrops. [20:51] That's a company creating water literally out of thin air. [20:55] You can't see any water around here, right? [20:58] But I'm actually surrounded by it. [21:00] It's called atmospheric water generation, a technology that pulls moisture out of the air and turns it into clean, drinkable water. [21:07] And at a time when water scarcity is becoming a global crisis, innovation like this could be huge. [21:13] We're going to go inside and take a look at the entire process now. [21:16] Check this out. [21:18] First, we take the air inside of this filtration system, and we filter the air. [21:24] So it doesn't matter how dirty the air is, we can clean up prior. [21:27] Then at that point, when the air goes up, we cool the air, and then it goes through the condensation process. [21:33] During the condensation process, we collect those water molecules. [21:36] And following that, that water gets filtered. [21:39] And then after the filtration process, we push it through a mineralization process. [21:43] And then at that point, it's bottled sustainably. [21:45] And that's basically it. [21:47] Each of these units run on about 4.5 kilowatts, which is roughly the same amount of energy as running two air conditioners at home. [21:54] Atmospheric water generation is actually already being used around the world, especially in areas with limited access to traditional water sources. [22:02] Here in Doha, Skydrops is a company that's able to produce more than 40,000 bottles of water a day using this exact method. [22:09] Qatar relies heavily on desalination, a process that's energy intensive and comes with environmental costs too. [22:16] And globally, water scarcity is only getting worse. [22:19] But the question is, how sustainable is all this? [22:23] Sustainability is really about survivability. [22:26] Can you continue to conduct operations like making water in the worst of scenarios? [22:32] And I know right now it's on everybody's mind because of the geopolitical scenario that's happening right now. [22:38] So for us specifically, when we look at how can we continue operations and how can we add on to the resource of desalination, for example, we talk about setting up atmospheric water generator systems that are decentralized. [22:53] So this is what we say when we talk about sustainability and survivability. [22:57] By setting up different systems, you create a much larger choke point that is much more difficult to target and therefore you can continue to make water. [23:06] As promising as it is, turning air into water isn't a replacement for traditional water systems. [23:11] It can't really sustain entire populations, but it can support them. [23:16] So as pressure on water supplies grows, could this be a part of the solution? [23:20] Kaveh, I'm going to come to you. The reality of where we are globally with water, right? [23:28] Can the damage that we've done be undone? [23:31] It's similar to financial bankruptcy. So where you have to make a decision about how to cope with a new reality. [23:44] So when you claim bankruptcy, when you file for bankruptcy, you admit to the fact that some of the damages cannot be undone. [23:52] But there is a chance to prevent further irreversible damages. [23:57] There are things to still mitigate and fix, but there are things to also live with. [24:02] So water bankruptcy is a state in which we admit to the fact that some of the ecosystem damages cannot be fixed. [24:10] Some of the damages, at least we don't know how to fix them. Science doesn't tell us how to bring back the extinct species. [24:18] Or it's very hard for us to reverse land subsidence and fix sinkholes or bring back the glaciers. [24:25] How to cope with a new reality. Unfortunately, that is all we have time for today. [24:30] Zeyna and Kaveh, thank you very much for joining us here on the stream. [24:34] And thank you for watching from me and the entire stream team. I'll see you soon.