How are political parties really feeling ahead of May elections? — BBC News

[0:00] Laura is clutching some books that look like old photo albums. [0:04] They are old photo albums from the 1990s. [0:06] We have to find them on eBay. [0:08] What's in them? [0:09] Do you really want to know? [0:10] You look like you've just raided the stationery cupboard at school. [0:13] I'm so excited. [0:15] So these are my election flippers. [0:17] Right. [0:17] And I have an amazing producer who very, very, very kindly compiles all these for me [0:21] so I can look like I know what I'm talking about on Thursday and Friday night. [0:25] And then inside are all my notes about all the different constituencies and councils in the country. [0:32] So what's the colour coding? [0:33] There's two blue, two red. [0:34] So because the elections are mega maze, we've been saying for months, which marvellously other people are now calling it, [0:39] there are going to be a set of elections which will have the results coming in on Thursday night from English councils. [0:46] This is the English council flipper. [0:49] Right. [0:50] And you'll see it's not completely chock full because there's the smallest number of results. [0:55] This is good, this isn't it? [0:58] Then we've got the Friday English results. [1:02] Absolutely chock-a-block. [1:04] Friday English councils coming up. [1:06] Thousands and thousands of seats up for grabs. [1:09] This is also for Friday. [1:10] This is all the Welsh names, which you've got to get good at saying. [1:13] And Young Pike has arrived. [1:14] Do come in and you can also see my flippers. [1:16] I don't show everyone my flippers. [1:18] And then these are all the Scottish constituencies, which will also be on Friday. [1:22] So I'm very excited. [1:23] And this is a very laborious way of saying that we're doing all our election homework because the elections are nearly here. [1:30] Yes. [1:30] So, look, this is meant to be the introduction to the podcast, Joe. [1:33] You're not here yet. [1:34] We're just saying. [1:35] I'll keep quiet. [1:36] He is, though. [1:36] Journalism is about looking out the window and saying what you can see. [1:38] So we're getting underway by saying welcome to this Sunday newscast. [1:42] Laura's got some political thing. [1:45] Joe Pike will talk to us about the Sunday shows and we'll get underway with the newscast edition of Sunday. [1:51] Hello, it's Paddy in the studio. [1:53] And it's Laura in the studio. [1:53] And I want to just say that the wonderful production team Through the Glass are already laughing at us. [1:57] And it's only, we're not even two minutes in. [1:59] And it's also Joe Pike in the studio. [2:00] Hi, guys. [2:01] Hello. [2:02] Nice of you to join us. [2:03] My pleasure, as ever. [2:05] What are we talking about today? [2:07] Well, I think we're talking about one thing, which is the huge political unfolding complicated picture in front of our eyes with enormous elections coming on Thursday, which, of course, will be the outcomes, will be the product of millions of people's decisions across the country. [2:23] Do you know that more than 20 million people have got the chance to have a vote? [2:26] I did not, actually. [2:27] And some 16-year-olds. [2:28] Yes, 16-year-olds in Wales and Scotland. [2:30] Although the rate of registration, I was told last week in Wales for 16-year-olds, has been less than 50%. [2:36] So all that kind of excitement that there might have been about young people voting doesn't seem to be translating necessarily into a rush to vote. [2:42] How are the parties feeling? [2:44] I think it depends which party you're talking about, Paddy. [2:46] I think the real art, or maybe it's a science in political campaigning, is being able to land your message or frame the race in your perfect way in those final days. [2:58] So people are going into the polling booths, ringing in their ears your message. [3:05] Now, it is very difficult. [3:07] Some are doing it with a sort of classic political change message. [3:10] Some are doing it by focusing on policy, local or national, or I suppose international, is this sort of debate on your show today, Laura. [3:20] Some, of course, would have been very focused on what message was in people's minds when postal votes landed, sort of 10 days to two weeks ago. [3:31] But I suppose different parties are feeling very differently about their chances. [3:36] Shall we just quickly then whiz through them? [3:37] Because we had six of them in the studio this morning. [3:39] But in terms of the parties, OK, Labour, I would say nervous, worried, restless, possibly anticipating a real kicking. [3:49] And then potentially this time next week, absolute chaos if people have the bottle to try and get rid of Keir Starmer. [3:54] Tories, Joe? [3:56] I think they are also nervous that they could see some challenges in places that have previously been their heartlands. [4:03] And yet there is an optimism that Cammie Baden-Ock's leadership seems stronger than it was perhaps six months ago, partly because the most prominent of her challenges is no longer in her party. [4:17] Robert Jenrick. [4:17] But also the question that's discussed here often with the general journalist like me and the specialist like you is Westminster bounce. [4:25] She's got the mo, hasn't she? [4:26] Yeah, in Westminster. [4:27] Does that go to the doors? [4:30] No, not if the polls are correct, which is still at this stage a big if. [4:33] So if you talk to people who've been around the country for the Tories, they say that the conversations on the doorstep aren't as bad as they were last year. [4:40] But they don't expect that to be showing up in any sort of, ah, hurrah, we can put our faith back in the Conservatives once again and the English counties will turn true blue. [4:50] We are still in a situation where it looks like the Tories are going to be going backwards in this election. [4:55] And, you know, there might come a point where actually you might want to ask, well, hang on a minute, are the Westminster Tories kidding themselves? [5:03] Because people around the country maybe feel less vitriolic towards them, but they're not actually moving their votes across yet. [5:11] Anyway, we will see, as Joe says, no question about it. [5:14] Kemi Badenoch's leadership is secure unless something really weird happens. [5:18] And this time last year, people might have said, oh, well, if there's another set of difficult local elections, she might be shown the door. [5:26] We're not in that circumstance now. [5:28] Liberal Democrat. [5:29] Well, as Sir John Curtis said on Laura's show, they seem to be flatlining. [5:33] They are seen historically as good local campaigners and therefore we have seen them focusing on their south of England and a southwestern heartland, you could call it that. [5:46] Often seats and areas that have been conservative in the past, often wealthier parts of the country. [5:56] But in Scotland and Wales, they certainly face challenges, partly because it's such a sort of multi-party stramash. [6:03] The critics and their foes like to portray them as the Gales party, don't they? [6:09] The Gales bakery party. [6:10] Well, it was a strategy. [6:11] I mean, it was a strategy that Liberal Democrats were quite happy to talk about privately at the general election, where Gales bakeries, if you're not a fan or even not a fan, but if you've never heard of them, Gales bakery is a chain of very expensive, quite fancy bakeries. [6:25] And where Gales open in town centres, Lib Dems went, ah, right, we'll have a bit of that because it matched the sort of demographic of the kinds of voters who they would be able to go after. [6:36] And I think that's really, it's a, it's a, it's a lighthearted, but a example of what the Lib Dem strategy has been since their terrible general election of 2019. [6:47] If you go, I was talking to a Lib Dem strategist about this week, go back to that. [6:51] Joe Swinson was going around, the leader at the time, saying, I can be the prime minister. [6:54] And then the country went, no, you really, really can't. [6:57] You can't be an MP, they said. [6:58] Exactly. [6:59] And she lost her seat. [7:00] And they were trying then to run a sort of big, giant, national, big style campaign. [7:05] After that, they went, oh, right, that's not really going to work for us. [7:07] And since then, they've run what the strategist was saying to me. [7:11] Basically, it's tortoise and hare. [7:13] So Ed Davey is a tortoise. [7:15] Might he dress up as a tortoise? [7:17] I don't know. [7:18] Don't give him any ideas, said a Lib Dem on our programme this morning. [7:21] What they're doing is this very, very localised campaigning. [7:24] They look very carefully, very deliberately at where they think they might win, try and [7:30] pile in on the council, build up in that way, and then hope to get MPs in that area. [7:35] So they're playing a different game to the other political parties, which we should bear [7:39] in mind when we look at their numbers, their numbers of councillors, get this, they might [7:44] end up, did I say this yesterday, being the biggest party in English local government this [7:50] time next week. [7:51] Right. [7:51] So that's because I was going to say we still must talk about reform, plied, SNP. [7:56] Oh, we're only just getting started. [7:57] But I just wanted to say that in the coverage that I've heard, it's almost like the chattering [8:02] classes have forgotten that this is kind of about education in Scotland, health in Wales. [8:06] It's about my bins. [8:09] It's about homelessness on the streets where I live. [8:11] It's about me voting for the people who deliver the services closest to my front door. [8:16] And we keep talking about Keir Starmer's, Keir Starmer's in trouble. [8:19] Hey, Keir Starmer. [8:20] And actually, why can't it be about the issues that my council run in England and all the devolved [8:27] powers of Scotland? [8:28] Do you think we've forgotten the whole point of these elections? [8:30] I think it's about both. [8:31] I think that what happens is our wonderful colleagues in the Westminster Press Pack, of [8:35] which I'm still just about a proud member. [8:38] Obviously, we tend to see things through the lens of the national leader, because that is [8:45] also what MPs are really talking about. [8:47] Look, Keir Starmer's in deep trouble. [8:48] Many MPs see this might be the moment to be shoved out. [8:51] It would be completely wrong. [8:52] Therefore, if we said, no, no, we will only talk about your bins. [8:55] However, it is well worth making the point. [8:57] This is not just about whether or not Keir Starmer is going to get his P45. [9:01] It's about real decisions being made by councillors, being made by members of the Scottish [9:06] government, the Welsh Senate, decisions that will affect how people's lives are. [9:10] And Keir Starmer himself in Today's Observer has this piece where he is focusing on policy, [9:15] talking about defence spending, talking about a closer economic relationship with the EU. [9:22] A very, very interestingly placed article in a newspaper read by, I imagine, a lot of Labour [9:27] MPs and Labour members. [9:28] Seemingly, if you're trying to read between the lines in that piece, saying it's not worth [9:34] the risk of internal wrangling. [9:37] Let's keep focusing on the end goal. [9:41] Keep your eyes on the goal. [9:42] And he's not saying it, but he's implying, you know, stick with me. [9:47] Let's see what's in the King's speech and let's carry on a bit further. [9:49] It's unusual to mention the King's speech, I feel. [9:53] It's a very good film. [9:54] Yeah. [9:55] And the King did do a good speech. [9:57] The King did do a very good speech, which is still absolutely ramping up lots of press [10:02] commentary and coverage, you know, some days after it. [10:05] But the King's speech for the uninitiated is also when the government stands up and says, [10:09] through the voice of the monarch, these are the plans and the new laws that they want [10:14] to pass during the next session of government. [10:16] And one of the things that Keir Starmer's apparatchiks did a few months ago, and which [10:22] they decided quite some time ago, which was quite cunning, is they put a date in notionally [10:27] for the King's speech, which was only a few days after they expected kicking at the elections. [10:34] Therefore, it was one of the tactics that might make it harder for people to organise [10:40] plots against him, because they say, oh, but just a couple of days later, you're going [10:43] to get all these fancy goods, might that, you know, get MPs just to hold off. [10:47] And it allows Keir Starmer, Laura, in this article today to say, this government will reshape [10:53] our nation over the coming weeks through the King's speech and beyond. [10:56] We will set out our agenda of radical reform with activist, interventionist government [11:01] building a stronger, fairer country. [11:05] Muscular liberalism. [11:06] He's basically sort of ramping up, I think, the significance. [11:09] It's no time for changing. [11:11] We need a strong, competent leader. [11:13] But of course, there are people within his own party who are not sure that that is him. [11:16] Well, that's the problem. [11:17] And if the results suggest that the country is very firmly of the view that he is not a [11:21] strong or competent leader, then for how long, say some people in the Labour Party, [11:25] do they ignore that? [11:27] That's the point here. [11:28] Where is the evidence that Keir Starmer is able to turn things around? [11:34] Flip side, where's the evidence that anyone else would be able to do a better job and be [11:37] popular? [11:38] We don't know the answers to either of those questions. [11:41] But many Labour MPs look at the evidence and think, is there proof that Keir Starmer can [11:46] turn this around? [11:47] Huh. [11:48] Don't know. [11:48] And I think those are going to be the big questions looming over everything next weekend. [11:51] We should go to the other parties, though, too. [11:53] Yes, we must. [11:54] Yes. [11:54] So let's turn to reform. [11:56] So I wonder if it's fair to say that if you were looking at this podcast six months ago, [12:02] you'd have said reform are a sore way in the polls. [12:06] They're amazing disruptor status secured. [12:09] They're the biggest party in the polls. [12:11] And then somehow it looks like they've lost a little bit of that patina as the disruptor. [12:17] I mean, I'm not saying they're not going to perform reform. [12:21] I'm just going to rhyme throughout the whole podcast. [12:24] What kind of momentum are they seeing? [12:28] The way I sort of described it the other day, which I think is fair, is that they are enjoying [12:35] an incredible period of success. [12:36] They have been ahead in the polls for many, many, many months. [12:39] You would absolutely expect them to be gaining at least a thousand seats in England next week, [12:44] maybe as many as two thousand at the top end of expectation. [12:46] You would not be surprised if they ended up being the biggest party in Wales. [12:53] They're vying with Plaid Cymru for the top spot. [12:56] It would not be surprising if they were second in Scotland too. [12:59] Really? [12:59] Ahead of Labour. [13:00] That wouldn't be surprising either. [13:01] They're fighting for their, you know, the reform source said to me this week, [13:04] when you say, what are you looking at privately? [13:06] What's your expectation? [13:07] They said four figures and one or two in two. [13:10] In other words, at least a thousand seats in England. [13:12] And then either first or second place in both Wales and Scotland. [13:18] But to your point, Paddy, I think they've been incredibly successful, but the Fizz has gone flat. [13:24] So they've basically stabilised in the polls. [13:27] So from time to time in the last year, they've been hitting 30 percent [13:30] with a big distance between them and Labour and the Tories and everyone else. [13:35] Now they've stabilised in the sort of 25 kind of high 20s. [13:39] So the gap between them and the other parties is narrower than it was, [13:43] which means when you talk to Labour strategists, they say, well, actually, midterm, [13:46] look at the gap between us and reform. [13:48] That's not insurmountable. [13:49] That's not the kind of, oh, my God, they're a clear 10 percent ahead of everyone else. [13:53] The personal project and success of Nigel Farage in, from nowhere, coming to first place [13:59] and sustaining it for 13 months is significant. [14:02] But it has brought with it scrutiny, including just this week, questions over this gift, [14:09] this £5 million gift from a crypto billionaire, Christopher Harbourn, [14:12] that none of us knew about until this week. [14:15] Now, Mr Farage makes it clear that that was an unconditional gift [14:20] before he'd even considered running for Parliament. [14:23] And really, it was about his security. [14:25] But there are some of these issues that pose a bit of a challenge to reform. [14:30] Certainly in the Mail on Sunday today, there's a big piece from Mr Farage on page seven. [14:36] He is framing this election in the final days, [14:38] talking about that sort of campaigning strategy as being vote for us to get rid of Keir Starmer. [14:44] And he seems to be very optimistic, saying, [14:47] let's be clear, the damage reform UK is preparing to inflict on Labour [14:51] in the so-called Redwall areas of this election has simply never been done before. [14:56] So there's a real optimism in the reform camp. [15:00] And yet they didn't turn up at nine o'clock this morning to talk to you. [15:03] Correct. So Nigel Farage was, in case people are wondering, [15:06] Nigel Farage had been arranged and confirmed to come on the programme this morning. [15:11] It's during the election campaign. We've been talking to the party leaders over a period of weeks. [15:16] And then we were told that he'd changed his mind and he's going campaigning in Essex instead. [15:21] Which, of course, all politicians are, you know, there's no expectation. [15:25] There's no law that says they have to come and do things. [15:27] But it is unusual, I think it's fair to say, [15:29] it's unusual that at the last minute that a major politician would change their mind about doing an interview. [15:36] And as you say, there has been a big story this week, Joe, [15:38] about five million quid coming from a very wealthy donor, [15:42] which Nigel Farage is accused of breaking the rules by not declaring. [15:47] It's worth noting that he did actually declare other gifts during that same period [15:52] when they're saying, oh, well, he wasn't an MP then and he didn't have to do it. [15:55] He did declare some other things during that same period. [15:57] He denies any wrongdoing, but the voters will think, [16:01] if I was given five million pounds, I might remember. [16:04] That's kind of how, this is a sniff test. [16:06] I mean, and we haven't got time to go on about reform endlessly, [16:09] but nonetheless, the prediction of second in Scotland is still massive. [16:13] Oh, yeah, I mean, undoubtedly. [16:15] And there's a, I think we said it last week, [16:17] but there's been a real kind of reckoning in Scotland [16:21] among the sort of political class in Scotland who for years thought, [16:23] oh, there's no space for Nigel Farage's brand of English politics here, [16:28] that Euroscepticism, and then his sort of brand of what they would accuse him [16:33] of being an English nationalist. [16:34] There's no place for that in Scotland. [16:36] Reform stands to do well, very well, potentially, [16:39] from a base of, you know, kind of more or less zero. [16:42] Joe Pike wrote a book about Scottish politics. [16:44] He did. [16:44] So I won't parley with him on this. [16:48] Let's talk about the SNP then. [16:51] The leader predicted, we will win, [16:55] which is, you know, we felt was quite early out of the... [16:59] Yeah, not just that they would win, [17:00] but they would actually get a majority, [17:02] because newscasters are a smart bunch, [17:03] don't need to be reminded that it's hard to get majorities [17:06] in the devolved parliament. [17:07] Well, let's just talk about that. [17:09] Why is that? [17:10] Because it's a proportional system, [17:12] and it was designed for different parties to come together [17:15] and form governments. [17:17] Yet 2011 is the sort of significant historical point [17:20] where when Alex Salmond was first minister, [17:22] there was an SNP majority. [17:24] That led to the Edinburgh Agreement, [17:26] which led to the Scottish independence referendum. [17:29] So the significance now in Scottish politics, [17:32] and especially in the SNP, over getting a majority, [17:34] is they argue this would mean they have a mandate [17:38] for a second independence referendum, [17:40] something which the UK government would like to stop. [17:44] And if they don't get a majority, [17:45] then they won't make that argument, you see. [17:47] So that's why the majority is not just important, [17:49] because it tells you about how popular the parties are, [17:52] and the SNP would be able to govern on their own [17:54] without having to get other parties on board. [17:57] But it also is the determinant of whether or not [17:59] there's another kind of tussle between Westminster and Holyrood [18:02] about whether or not there should be another referendum. [18:04] Can I insert a Scottish-splaining into two people? [18:07] Excellent. Just don't do the accent. [18:09] No, I won't do the accent. [18:11] So obviously all the accents in Scotland are the same as well. [18:14] At least spend a good portion of your life in Scotland. [18:16] Yes, yes. [18:17] We shouldn't discount that. [18:18] But I'm going to say a thing, and you're going to rate it. [18:22] OK. [18:22] A vote for reform is a vote for the union. [18:26] Yes. [18:26] If they are the second party, [18:28] then it once again puts this issue into a marginal issue again. [18:33] And it was 55-45 when the referendum was held. [18:37] So if reform's second, you could make the case in Westminster [18:41] that even though you don't like them, [18:44] you could say that's clearly, [18:45] there are still plenty of unionist voters in Scotland. [18:48] And if you listen carefully, I'll try and explain this, [18:51] because there might be an absolute head spinner, [18:54] and this is an outside possibility. [18:55] I'm not suggesting this is going to happen. [18:58] But there is an outside chance where there might be a situation [19:02] where there's a unionist majority in Holyrood. [19:06] So if the SNP falls short of John Swinney's very confident prediction [19:10] that they would get an outright majority, [19:11] it's not impossible that the combined seats of Labour, [19:17] of the Lib Dems, of the Tories, and of reform, [19:22] add up to a unionist majority in the Scottish Parliament. [19:28] What on earth happens in that situation? [19:31] Does Anna Sawa think, well, hang on a minute, [19:33] I could have a crack here at being first minister [19:36] and actually lead the country, [19:39] but Labour have said that they wouldn't touch reform with a barge pole. [19:41] So all sorts of really interesting dilemmas [19:47] might be thrown up in this contest. [19:50] It's not impossible there could be a unionist majority in Holyrood. [19:53] Most of the polling suggests the SNP are going to be the biggest party by far, [19:57] but being the biggest party does not automatically give you a majority in Holyrood. [20:01] I think there's an outside chance of that. [20:03] But if you talk to people in Scottish Labour, [20:04] and I'm sure, Jo, you've had conversations with people, [20:07] Labour MPs in Scotland or Scottish Labour this week, [20:09] there's a kind of, hmm, our internal data isn't as bad as the polls are. [20:14] Maybe there's an outside chance that we might end up with more, [20:17] you know, more lead in our pencil than we thought. [20:20] I bumped into a prominent SNP figure the other day, [20:24] just on the street rather randomly, [20:25] who, this person said, yes, but for the SNP, [20:28] and better for Labour than the polls are suggesting. [20:33] I was in Edinburgh last weekend as well, [20:34] and I was rifling, this sounds strange, [20:36] I was rifling through the bin of the stairwell of the place I was staying at, [20:40] the friend's house I was staying at. [20:40] That does sound strange. [20:41] Because it's full of sort of takeaway leaflets, [20:43] but also, of course, this time of year, election leaflets. [20:46] And what was fascinating was the sort of the squeeze messages, [20:52] the tactical voting messages on all of these leaflets. [20:55] One of them saying, this seat, which I won't mention the name of, [20:59] this seat is a toss-up between the Greens and Labour. [21:02] Another party was saying, I think the SNP saying, [21:05] this is a toss-up between the SNP and the Conservatives. [21:08] Now, actually... [21:09] Same seat. [21:09] The same seat. [21:10] The same bin, Paddy. [21:12] Same bin. [21:12] And I think that gives you an idea of... [21:16] I mean, there are, of course, constituencies, [21:19] which could be four-way, five-way battles, [21:22] but you have two votes. [21:24] You have your constituency and your list vote in Scotland. [21:26] There are so many parties. [21:28] The de Haunt system is a sort of confusing formula. [21:31] That's the proportional system. [21:32] And therefore, it could, as Laura said, [21:34] and to some unexpected results. [21:36] And they've changed it. [21:37] Again, this year, they've changed it, so it's different. [21:39] So it's always been a proportional system, [21:41] but they've changed how it works this time. [21:44] And that renders the polling much... [21:48] That potentially renders the polling much less reliable. [21:51] It's the de Haunt variable. [21:53] That's what we're really saying. [21:54] This is what podcasts are invented for. [21:56] Oh, my God. [21:57] Talking about the de Haunt system. [21:58] De Haunt class. [21:59] So Greens, Plaid. [22:01] Yes. [22:02] So let's go Plaid. [22:03] Yes. [22:04] So I spoke to a Welsh veteran. [22:08] Yes. [22:08] Who said currently it's Labour Plaid. [22:10] Yes. [22:11] It could go Plaid Labour. [22:13] Yes. [22:14] What do you think? [22:14] In terms of the mix of the government? [22:15] Yeah. [22:17] Oh, in terms of the government? [22:18] Yeah. [22:18] Yeah, possibly. [22:19] So what's happened, this race, [22:22] or the race for the one and two spot, [22:24] is between Plaid and reform. [22:27] If Plaid are the biggest party, [22:28] but they're incredibly unlikely to have a majority. [22:30] So either the most likely scenarios are Plaid's the biggest party, [22:35] but they get a bit of help from Labour, [22:38] the Lib Dems and the Greens, [22:40] so that Reyn Upjord can become First Minister. [22:43] Or this is a scenario where reform's the biggest party, [22:47] and then it's not quite clear what would happen. [22:49] So the Tories have said they'd work with reform [22:50] if they gave them some of what they wanted, [22:52] like they want a cut to income tax in Wales, [22:54] as does reform. [22:55] You can see they might possibly work together there. [22:57] But it does look like Plaid will have a majority [23:00] with Lib Dems, Labour and the Greens. [23:04] So what you might call, if you're that way inclined, [23:07] it's very likely there'll be a progressive majority in Wales. [23:09] But if reform has more seats by some distance than Plaid, [23:13] then you get into potentially quite a complicated argument [23:16] about legitimacy. [23:18] And so Plaid at the moment are feeling pretty bouncy, [23:21] but I think a bit more trepidish than a couple, [23:23] a bit more trepidish than a couple of weeks ago. [23:26] I think Plaid thought they were very much on course [23:29] to be the biggest party very clearly. [23:32] But now you can sense there's a few nerves around the edges [23:35] about whether or not reform will actually pip them. [23:37] And this is where I introduce turnout. [23:39] Yeah. [23:40] Because all the boffins I speak to, like Joe Pike, [23:43] predict low turnout in these elections, Joe Pike. [23:47] Yeah. [23:47] I mean, that is very possible. [23:49] And that means that the sort of get out the vote operation [23:53] will be central. [23:55] So if parties understand where their most loyal voters are [23:59] and can get them out of the houses to a polling station, [24:02] that could potentially make a big difference in the final result. [24:06] And for parties whose voters may be sceptical [24:11] or may be tempted to stay at home because they are, you know, [24:15] demotivated or fed up, that operation could be quite central. [24:19] And that's often where the squeeze message comes in, [24:21] which is, you know, if you are scared of Paddy and his party, [24:26] well, you better get out and vote for Laura. [24:27] I'm scared of that. [24:29] I'm scared of that, really. [24:30] The only way to stop Paddy is Laura. [24:32] You've got to come out and vote for Laura. [24:34] Do you know what I mean? [24:34] But that is often the message that you hear from parties [24:38] and newscasters will have in leaflets through their letterboxes. [24:40] Yeah, I mean, also, in another podcast world, [24:43] we talk about you rifling through bins for the whole half hour. [24:47] What else did you find in the bin? [24:48] I just put that out there. [24:49] Well, it was just takeaway leaflets and election. [24:53] Yeah, no, no, don't be shy. [24:55] I wanted to see them. [24:56] I think it's fascinating. [24:57] Yeah, niche. [24:57] I put them in my bag and pilfered them. [24:59] Niche is cool. [25:00] That's what people like. [25:01] They like people with strange hobbies. [25:04] So now we do greens. [25:06] So the thing about the greens is that a few years ago, [25:09] they were windmills and moccasins. [25:12] And basically speaking, they were quite well behaved [25:15] and they didn't really want to trouble you very much. [25:18] I had a couple of MPs here, one peer there. [25:21] And now Zach is the leftist populist. [25:25] Yes. [25:25] That's kind of everyone accepts, including... [25:27] Well, he calls himself. [25:28] He says he's an eco-populist. [25:29] Eco-populist. [25:30] Yep. [25:30] And he's outflanking the left wing of the Labour Party in the way that reform is outflanking the right wing of the Conservative Party. [25:39] But just heading into the election, he's had this unusual storm, which we've addressed here, [25:45] where it's very unusual for the police to call out the politicians. [25:48] It happens about once every three years, I think. [25:52] And this business of what he reposted on social media, which, again, I go back to what I said earlier. [25:58] Is this about health in Scotland? [26:00] Is this about the schooling of my child in Wales? [26:02] Is this about the homeless problem I've got in my street in X council? [26:07] Or is it about my hopes for better bin collections? [26:10] No, it's about a post, a repost on social media. [26:14] Yeah, because Zach Polanski's judgment was brought into question. [26:17] So he re-shared the post that was criticising the way in which the police apprehended the suspects who had been trying to stab Jewish people in Golders Green. [26:26] And Zach Polanski, by re-sharing that, put himself in a place where, as a public political figure, he was questioning the police just at the moment when they had been trying to stop a serious attack on Jewish life becoming much worse. [26:41] So his credibility was then attacked and he'd made the police very upset, which is why Sir Mark Rowley made a very unusual step of criticising him in a letter that he published. [26:50] But it was interesting this morning we asked Zach Polanski if he basically still thought the police had gone too far. [26:56] And I'm paraphrasing, but yeah, I mean, he basically said, yes, he does still think that they've got answers, questions to answer about how they handled it. [27:03] But he did acknowledge that doing so online had not been the right place for him to make that case. [27:10] But I think it's interesting. I think we're into kind of, you know, New Greens 2.0, right? [27:14] So New Greens 1.0 was Zach Polanski. It was all kind of, oh, super wave surge in the polls, amazing funnel. [27:20] Look, here he is raving around, having a great time, adding on members, having incredible success at a by-election. [27:27] Piling on members by the tens of thousands. A couple of months then into that, of course, what happens is journalists start looking more carefully at a party's record when somebody turns up, you know, newly. [27:41] And there have been more questions asked about his, you know, old job as a hypnotist. [27:45] There have been more questions asked about green candidates specifically posting really vile and offensive anti-Semitic views online. [27:54] So Zach Polanski is in a sort of, I think it's a different phase, you know, New Greens 2.0, where Zach Polanski is facing scrutiny, which he, of the kind that he wasn't a while ago. [28:03] What do we say is the upside for these elections? What do we say seats now, seats then? [28:10] Well, I think in terms of English local government, you're looking at what have previously been Labour sort of strongholds in central London. [28:20] Yeah. [28:21] They could do well in some of those seats. [28:22] Yeah, they might even take some of those councils. So they might take Hackney Council, for example. [28:26] They've also been working hard in Lewisham, Southwark, Newham. [28:29] They've been working hard in, and maybe in total, some of the predictions would say sort of 500 seats or so, and perhaps a bit north of that would be decent for the Greens. [28:38] But I think inside the party, there are also actually nerves, because how do they translate this massive surge of excitement, particularly online around them as a party? [28:48] How do they translate that into bums on seats? It might not happen. And how do they actually sort of manage their own internal expectation? [28:57] And you've got to think also about how people consume their own news and information now. [29:01] If you're someone who's a kind of new convert to the Green Party, and you get most of your news off this thing, and you see a lot of it on social media. [29:07] So what you're seeing on social media is all these amazing videos of Zach Polanski and Hannah Spencer, and it's all woo-woo, cheer, all amazing. [29:14] And then actually they go, yes, so we've got 400 extra council seats after the election that you've been so excited about. [29:21] That might the next day feel like a bit of a kind of clunk, you know, and how do you then as a national leader maintain momentum around that? [29:30] I mean, I'm going off into the realms of, you know, party management, but it's quite an interesting thing, because they're basically a vibes party. [29:37] The vibes have become a bit more testy for various reasons in the last few weeks since Polanski first, you know, sprung onto the stage. [29:46] If the council results sort of feel like they fell a bit short, well, what do the vibes feel like then? [29:51] So it's multi-party Britain. [29:53] Did John Curtis buy into that? [29:55] Because famously, John is the sort of barometer. [29:57] Every time someone says, oh, we've entered the new multi-party world. [30:02] Yes. [30:03] John adds everything up and reminds you that actually we've had multi-party in Scotland since before the English started waking up. [30:10] Yeah. [30:11] But also we've had English party before, and then it snaps back. [30:14] So that's the question is there's multi-party, but it's never forever. [30:17] So I always kind of roll my eyes a bit. [30:19] People say, ah, we are definitely into the era of multi-party politics. [30:23] A, as if it's something new. [30:24] Well, no, there was a coalition for five years between 2010 and 2015. [30:28] The SNP have been in charge for donkeys in Scotland. [30:31] Wales has had coalitions. [30:32] And, you know, go back to the 80s with the SNP and then the SDP and then the alliance. [30:38] So, yes, we are absolutely at the moment in a world where there are multiple political parties vying for your attention. [30:48] There is an argument that we've talked about before that politics is basically now about two big blocks, the sort of progressive block and the block on the right. [30:56] And there are lots of different parties fighting each other in that. [31:00] Some people believe and would argue that means we're going heading into a general election where you might have four parties or even five parties all knocking around, sort of 15, 20%. [31:09] It is also perfectly possible that things will have snapped back to the big red team and the big blue team. [31:14] And we just do not have the answer to those questions. [31:18] One more thing I'd add, Paddy, to what Laura's just said is that what reform seemed to have done and what the Greens, you could argue, have done with the Gorton by-election too is get past the concern of some voters that voting for them might be a wasted vote. [31:33] There's no point voting for one of these parties because it won't actually change the course of the election. [31:40] Certainly, the Greens have proof in Gorton and may add to further proof in these elections and certainly reform have proof from various previous contests that actually, if you vote for them, it can make a difference. [31:53] And that is a real problem for some of the more traditional established parties. [31:57] Yeah, it's a really good point because they've passed that hurdle now. [32:00] Yeah, that's a better way of putting it. Pass the hurdle. [32:01] They've passed the hurdle or bolted over a hurdle or whatever. [32:04] And it used to be, oh, well, it's no point voting for you. [32:07] And if reform ends up somehow in government in Wales, if they were in power for the first time in a national administration, that would be a huge moment. [32:16] And they're likely to take control of more councils. [32:18] You know, remember this time last year how huge it felt that reform won control of some town halls for the first time. [32:25] The established parties all hoped, oh, well, now they're running things. [32:28] They'll find it really hard. [32:29] So people will think that they're dreadful. [32:30] That hasn't happened. [32:31] It has a bit, hasn't it? [32:33] There's been some embarrassments. [32:35] Oh, there have been embarrassments. [32:36] We've put up the council tax. [32:37] But the sort of established parties, I remember during the many hours of election coverage, they were all sort of saying, oh, well, they'll see how they like it now. [32:45] They'll see how hard it is and they'll have scrutiny and voters will decide that they're terrible. [32:50] Yes, there have been challenges and things have gone wrong and they have had to put council tax up. [32:55] But there hasn't been this sort of, oh, terrible fall away dramatically in their support. [33:00] There's not been a collapse. [33:01] No, there hasn't been a collapse. [33:02] We're going to get, they're just telling me to move everything on, not because he's not interested, but he wants to get to newscasters who are actually the point of the whole thing. [33:10] Correct. [33:10] Have we mentioned all the parties yet? [33:13] We haven't mentioned Restore UK, which are huge online, founded by a disgruntled MP, Rupert Lowe, who used to be in reform. [33:23] They're only running in a tiny handful of places, including Great Yarmouth, which is his seat. [33:28] But there might just be a tiny little interesting thing there. [33:31] I just put a note down. [33:33] I'm not saying it's a big deal. [33:34] And they're obviously not in any way, shape or form competing in this nationally, but just as a little sidebar. [33:41] Paddy, time for a gimmick. [33:43] Remoter voter. [33:44] So in case you had forgotten, how could you have forgotten? [33:56] Remoter voter is when we encourage newscasters to write in and tell us how far flung their destination is from where they are. [34:03] Either filling in their postal vote or maybe you're casting a ballot in the somewhere very, very, very remote and far away. [34:10] Maybe you're in John O'Groats. [34:11] Maybe you are up a hill in a tiny remote place in a beautiful part of England and your ballot station is a shepherd's bothy. [34:24] Who knows? [34:25] Anyway, I'm getting lost in my own flights of fancy. [34:27] I thought, yeah, I think I was. [34:28] There's a script for this programme and it says Laura to read. [34:31] Oh, I know. [34:32] But we had to tell people, remind people what it was. [34:34] You can't just say now, remote voter. [34:36] I feel more confused now. [34:37] That shepherd's bothy sounds tempting. [34:39] Yes. [34:40] Can we just, it may have a bin. [34:41] Oh, Laura to read. [34:44] Okay. [34:45] Keith has emailed in. [34:45] Hello, Keith. [34:46] You want to be the remoter voter. [34:48] I'm looking to subvert your usual remoter voter entries by asking you to consider not just geographic distance, but also temporal distance. [34:57] I just voted at nine o'clock on Saturday at my polling station in Cranbrook in Kent. [35:02] We are one of the areas that are trialling early voting on the weekend before the Thursday of the main vote. [35:08] So, on the basis of the distance of time, I consider myself a temporarily remote voter. [35:15] Great. [35:15] Fascinating. [35:16] Thank you, Keith. [35:16] It's like Doctor Who, isn't it? [35:17] This is an email about Sue Francis's son in the Falklands. [35:21] Hello, my name is Sue. [35:22] I'm a fan of the podcast since Brexit cast, Laura. [35:24] I think I've found a remoter voter for you. [35:26] My son, who will be voting in the upcoming Senate election in Wales, is currently serving in the military in the Falkland Islands and will cast his vote by proxy. [35:33] From there, please could you give a shout out to all the serving personnel in the Mount Pleasant complex who are doing a great job in this beautiful remote part of the world. [35:41] Many thanks for keeping us all so well informed in these turbulent times. [35:44] It really makes such a difference. [35:46] That's a very nice email. [35:47] Hello to Sue's son and anybody listening to newscasts in the Falklands. [35:51] But I hope HMS Dragon wasn't bringing their postal votes back. [35:55] Now, Paddy, you very cleverly last week said that there would be gifts between the King and Donald Trump. [36:00] And you said that Scotland would come up. [36:03] Yes. [36:03] And this is one of the occasions when I was right. [36:05] Hooray. [36:06] And this is compared to all the occasions when I was wrong. [36:08] And also Catgate, which we can't go into again. [36:12] You just did. [36:14] Don't be ashamed of your preference for dogs. [36:16] It's okay. [36:17] Don't bring it up again. [36:18] Oh, I just did. [36:19] You did. [36:19] Look, the tariffs on whisky were lifted. [36:23] Yeah, very significant for that key Scottish industry. [36:26] And a sort of battle between various politicians over who should claim credit. [36:31] Well, hang on. [36:32] We're claiming credit because we predicted on this podcast there'd be Scotland would feature in the visit. [36:38] That's what we said. [36:38] We did. [36:39] But John Swinney is sort of claiming that actually it was his persuading of Donald Trump. [36:43] It was this podcast. [36:44] Who led him to raise tariffs and the King, I mean, was it the King or was it whoever? [36:48] The trade minister or whoever. [36:50] You have to take the wins. [36:51] It was you. [36:52] You have to take the wins. [36:53] When you think how criticised the BBC is. [36:55] Yes. [36:55] And then lo and behold, we predicted Scotland would feature in the visit. [36:59] And then the tariffs are lifted. [37:01] So Paddy McConnell is the one. [37:03] It's not me. [37:04] It's this cast. [37:05] Whisky cast. [37:06] Well, many congratulations. [37:07] I'm sure the people of Islay will be. [37:09] Cask. [37:10] Whisky cast. [37:11] Yeah. [37:11] News cast. [37:12] Yeah, it's me if I was dreaming a few minutes ago. [37:16] I think that you've got completely bananas. [37:18] Anyway, so yes, that was a big story out of the visit. [37:21] And people said, thank you very much to the King. [37:23] I would just observe that it's quite a strange thing if in the era of 2026 that you've got [37:27] one man in his 70s who's very, very powerful, able to persuade another man in his 70s who's [37:32] very, very powerful that they just had a little chat and here's a present to an industry [37:36] that affects thousands of people and hundreds of millions of pounds. [37:38] And it's an unusual way of doing business, if I'm allowed to say. [37:42] Other gifts. [37:43] A framed replica of the 1879 design plans for the Resolute Desk as discussed on Newscaster. [37:49] And the Resolute Desk is what? [37:50] It's traditionally the desk in the Oval Office. [37:55] A bell was given by the King from the World War II submarine namesake HMS Trump. [38:00] Now, I was interested in that. [38:01] I wondered why it was called HMS Trump. [38:04] Was it? [38:04] Because it was a sign. [38:05] Anyway, I was going to. [38:06] I know it was an old submarine, but why was it called HMS Trump? [38:08] Back in the day. [38:10] President Trump, however, gave King Charles a custom replica of a letter from 1785 from [38:16] President John Adams to diplomat John Jay detailing Adams' historic meeting with King [38:22] George III at St. James's Palace. [38:25] And Adams' historic meeting was not Adam Fleming's historic meeting, although Adam Fleming did [38:29] discuss it on Newscast last week. [38:31] Fine. [38:31] So we've reached the end of Newscast. [38:34] And can I just say that one thing you said to me earlier struck a note, which is you said, [38:40] you used the word feel. [38:41] And I'm guessing we will really feel these election results, won't we? [38:47] That's the point. [38:48] I think that's right. [38:49] And I think particularly for the Labour Party, knowing that you might get a kicking in the polls [38:56] is one thing. [38:58] Feeling that you have is quite another. [39:01] And if you are a Labour MP who doesn't know whether or not it's the right thing or the [39:07] wrong thing to be part of a move against Keir Starmer, if on Thursday night and Friday afternoon [39:14] your phone is filling up with messages from colleagues, activists that you've worked with [39:21] for years, people who you've walked along pavements with clipboards in the rain, trying [39:26] to persuade them to come out and vote for Labour, if all you're seeing on your phone [39:30] and in your conversation is people saying, this is absolutely horrendous, Bob's lost, [39:36] Jane's lost, so-and-so's lost, all of, if your political world suddenly becomes absolutely [39:42] full of people going, this is unbearable, we can't go on like this. [39:46] That is a very different sentiment to this time seven days before where they're going, [39:51] oh God, it's already difficult, isn't it? [39:52] But oh, who knows? [39:53] We've got no certainty about whether or not anybody would be any better than Keir, and [39:57] the psychology is very important in politics as well as the raw numbers. [40:00] And another part of that psychology, Laura, I'd argue, is that these councillors, if you're [40:04] talking about the English local government, are not just people who decide on issues about [40:10] recycling and potholes, they are also the sort of key level of effectively paid campaigners [40:17] in the campaigning infrastructure for an MP. [40:20] And if you have lots of councillors in your constituency, because they are engaged, because [40:26] they have a small salary and they're part of the decision in the area, they are more [40:32] likely to be out there keeping you in your job. [40:35] And there will be MPs of different parties who lose councillors on Friday morning or on [40:42] Saturday, for whom that maybe is a sign of things to come and a sign of how challenging [40:49] future elections could be. [40:51] Right. [40:52] This is definitely the end. [40:53] We'll put those predictions to the test in seven days' time. [40:56] We say thank you very much indeed for listening. [40:58] Goodbye. [40:59] Goodbye. [40:59] Goodbye. [40:59] Goodbye. [40:59] Goodbye. [40:59] Goodbye. [40:59] Goodbye. [41:00] Goodbye. [41:00] Goodbye. [41:01] Goodbye. [41:01] Goodbye. [41:02] Goodbye. [41:03] Goodbye. [41:03] Goodbye. [41:04] Goodbye.