Hormuz on edge: Trump’s Iran strategy under strain

[0:09] This is America. And right now, America is weighing how to leave a war without losing control over a vital waterway. [0:16] What happens if the United States exit Iran before answering critical questions over the Strait of Hormuz? [0:22] And what is America's obligation as a global power to ensure freedom of navigation? [0:28] I'll be back later in the show to explore more on that. But first, here's Anna Burns-Francis. [0:32] Thanks, Manny. America's entanglement in Iran has left shipments through that strait completely stranded. [0:38] So who's responsible for reopening the vital waterway? [0:42] In a moment, we'll be joined by Kimberly Halkett, who is live at the White House today. [0:45] And Richard Gaisford is live for us in New Jersey. [0:49] Because America's war with Iran has been going on for more than 30 days now. [0:54] Last night, the president took to the national stage with an address many expected would shed new light on where he saw the conflict going. [1:02] We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. [1:07] We're going to bring them back. [1:09] To the Stone Ages, where they belong. [1:13] So, no marked change in strategy then. [1:15] But Donald Trump was also keen to reinforce one of the favorite messages of this administration, economic prosperity. [1:23] We built the strongest economy in history. [1:26] We're going through it right now, the strongest in history. [1:29] A lot of other countries might have tuned in to watch that and be wondering what the message was for them. [1:36] Economies around the world are facing an oil and energy crisis. [1:40] Across Europe, Asia and the Pacific, [1:42] countries are counting the days till they run out of fuel. [1:45] And the countries that supply it are trapped. [1:47] Tankers with no way out of a strait that's been shut down by Iran as revenge for America's attack. [1:53] Just a month ago, America was promising any help necessary to get those ships through the strait. [2:00] No matter what, Trump said, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world. [2:07] But over time, that message has changed. [2:09] A couple of weeks later, the president was telling other countries it was their job, [2:13] then that the strait would reopen naturally at the end of the war. [2:17] Last night, he said, [2:18] The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz strait and won't be taking any in the future. [2:27] We don't need it. We haven't needed it and we don't need it. [2:30] The U.S., it appears, has no interest in leading efforts to reopen the strait. [2:36] But those other countries aren't exactly leaping up to take over. [2:39] So where does that leave things with one of the most vital waterways in the world? [2:44] Let's go to our correspondent. [2:45] Now, Kimberly Halkett is at the White House. [2:47] And Richard Gaisford joins us from an oil refinery in New Jersey. [2:50] Kimberly, the president at pains to point out the U.S. doesn't need the strait or its oil. [2:55] So how does he see it being reopened? [2:57] Yeah, that's right, Anna. [2:58] What we know is that the U.S. president has repeatedly argued that the U.S. is mostly not dependent on oil that flows through the Strait of Hormuz. [3:08] And that really frames how he thinks it should be reopened. [3:12] The U.S. president arguing that [3:14] those that are dependent, primarily Asia, that that is the sort of area where the country should come from that should be involved in forming the base of the coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. [3:27] Now, Trump has argued that those nations should, in his words, take the lead. [3:32] It's clear that his expectation is that the Strait of Hormuz should open without any U.S. action. [3:39] In fact, he's even suggested that it could automatically open after the conflict. [3:44] It does wind down. [3:45] But of note is the fact that even though the United States is less dependent on oil from the Strait of Hormuz, it is tied to the global oil and financial markets. [3:56] And as a result, that does affect the United States and U.S. consumers, regardless of what the president might say. [4:03] Indeed. Thank you, Kimberly. [4:04] Let's go to Richard now. [4:05] Richard, what is the impact of the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz having on U.S. energy and oil? [4:15] Well, it might be a long way away. [4:16] But it's exactly the same. [4:17] It's exactly the same as the rest of the world. [4:18] As that crude oil price goes up, it has a knock-on effect to absolutely everything else in the chain. [4:24] And, of course, we're seeing that in the gasoline prices here in America, which are rising quite dramatically. [4:30] President Trump might say that the U.S. has more crude oil than it needs. [4:34] He wants to sell it to the rest of the world. [4:36] That is true, but only of certain types of crude oil. [4:40] Actually, America needs lots of different types to come into the country to make a wider range of fuel products. [4:46] That's happening here at the Bayway Refinery. [4:49] It can process very nearly up to a quarter of a million barrels of crude oil every day, create huge amounts of gasoline. [4:58] But to do that, it needs to not only take the shale oil that comes in by train from North Dakota. [5:04] It needs to bring oil in by ship from Canada, sometimes from the North Sea, sometimes from West Africa as well. [5:11] So you can see this whole business is completely interlinked. [5:14] It's a completely different world. [5:15] It's a completely global industry. [5:17] That is why the effect is being felt here in America, thousands of miles away from the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, [5:25] where, of course, the problem might lie, but it is still America's issue, too. [5:29] Their equipment's been totally decimated. [5:34] Donald Trump's view on the Strait of Hormuz is clear. [5:38] What happens to the Strait, we're not going to have anything to do with. [5:41] In one way, he's right. [5:43] Very few of the oil tankers and ships currently blocked from passing by [5:47] through this crucial channel will be headed to the U.S. [5:51] Twenty percent of the world's oil flows through this narrow sea passage bordered on one side by Iran. [5:58] But it's the impact on global oil prices and the knock-on effects to economies around the world [6:04] that's most definitely of concern to the president, [6:07] with warnings that if the Strait isn't opened, the situation this month will be much worse than last. [6:14] The loss of oil in April, [6:15] The loss of oil in April, [6:16] the loss of oil in April, [6:19] will be twice the loss of oil in March. [6:23] I think it will cut the economic growth in many countries, [6:27] and especially in emerging and developing countries, [6:31] where they don't have the hard currencies, [6:33] they may be even a bigger difficulty. [6:36] We may well see, Nikola, in many countries, [6:40] the rationing of energy may be coming soon. [6:44] Whilst the U.S. is a major producer of crude oil, [6:45] Whilst the U.S. is a major producer of crude oil, [6:46] much of which is exported, [6:48] it also has to import different types of oil to supplement production at domestic refineries. [6:55] That means it buys and sells on the global market, [6:59] with prices spiking due to the conflict. [7:02] The fact that much of what the U.S. imports comes from near neighbors in Canada and Mexico [7:08] might help guarantee supply, [7:11] but it doesn't negate the effects of rising costs worldwide. [7:15] But it doesn't negate the effects of rising costs worldwide. [7:16] That means fuel prices are fast going up across the United States, [7:20] and that is very much the President's problem. [7:23] Despite still being much lower than elsewhere in the world, [7:27] the price at the pump here impacts political popularity. [7:31] In many ways, this is Donald Trump's Suez moment. [7:35] In 1956, Egypt nationalized the canal that links the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. [7:42] Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt to regain control. [7:47] Despite their military success, [7:50] they were forced to withdraw after pressure from the U.S. and Soviet Union. [7:55] It weakened their global influence. [7:57] And maintaining global influence will be key to a President [8:01] who, despite his mantra of America first, [8:04] still wants his country to be the leading world power. [8:08] Richard Gaisford, Al Jazeera, New York. [8:11] As President Trump outlines a possible path out of the war with Iran, [8:16] U.S. media coverage is shifting fast. [8:18] It's no longer just about how the conflict ends, [8:21] but whether the U.S. can step away without securing one of the world's most critical waterways. [8:27] Manny Rapolo looks at how that question is shaping the headlines. [8:30] U.S. news outlets are not just asking how this war ends, [8:38] but whether the U.S. can walk away without controlling the Strait of Hormuz. [8:42] Let's start with how some outlets are framing the President's exit strategy. [8:46] Here's the Washington Examiner. [8:47] Trump lays out exit strategy for Iran war. [8:50] Just pack up and leave. [8:51] The reporting goes on to say, [8:53] after considering the various unpalatable options [8:56] for using military force to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, [8:59] Trump decided there was no need to do anything. [9:02] The Strait, he says, will just open up by itself. [9:05] Let's hop on over to CNN. [9:06] This was just after President Trump's national address on Wednesday night. [9:10] Let's take a listen to this exchange. [9:12] The other thing here is the Strait of Hormuz. [9:14] The President seemed to back up and confirm reporting there [9:17] that he's not interested in the United States having control of it [9:20] or having that settled [9:21] if the United States does end this war. [9:23] If Iran comes out of this controlling the Strait of Hormuz [9:26] and being able to meter ships that go through there [9:28] and taking a cut of every ship, [9:29] they're going to make hundreds of millions and billions of dollars. [9:32] So if that is the outcome here strategically, [9:35] that is not good if our objective is to contain Iran. [9:38] That reporting captures a growing concern in the U.S. media [9:41] that exiting this war may not necessarily mean [9:44] resolving the question over the Strait of Hormuz. [9:46] And that points to something else very important, [9:49] a shift from maximum pressure to a message of self-reliance. [9:52] Directed toward U.S. allies. [9:54] This is NPR with the headline, [9:56] Trump to allies who need access to Strait of Hormuz, [9:59] go get your own oil. [10:01] Now let's hop on over to CBS for a bit more of that perspective. [10:05] Take a listen. [10:06] With great respect to our allies, [10:08] the British, the French, the Japanese, etc., [10:10] that their navies are going to come in here [10:12] and volunteer to solve this problem [10:14] in the absence of the United States Navy [10:16] seems a little fanciful to me. [10:18] In other words, U.S. allies may be on their own. [10:21] Which brings us to another theme, [10:23] the potential end of the United States' historic role [10:25] as the global protector of freedom of navigation. [10:28] Let's hop on over to MSNOW. [10:30] This is Mika Brzezinski. Have a listen. [10:32] As more than 30 countries will meet virtually today [10:35] to discuss ways to get heavy traffic [10:38] moving again through the Strait, [10:40] the meeting will be chaired by the U.K.'s foreign secretary. [10:44] The United States will not attend. [10:47] So as the U.S. media continues to track [10:50] President Trump's exit strategy, [10:52] the question again isn't just over how this war is going to end, [10:55] but what is going to happen with the Strait of Hormuz. [10:58] Because if questions over the waterway remain unanswered, [11:01] the cost may be more than just oil prices. [11:04] Maybe whether or not the U.S. is stepping back [11:06] from its role of guarantor of global navigation. [11:09] In the studio to discuss this crucial issue with us [11:13] is Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman, [11:15] and David Hale, former U.S. ambassador [11:18] and under secretary of state for political affairs. [11:20] Thank you both for joining us. [11:21] Thank you for having me today. [11:23] Tom, I'll start with you. [11:24] Is the U.S. responsible for getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened? [11:27] Well, I think we bear some responsibility for starting this, [11:30] with Israel starting this in the first place. [11:32] That doesn't mean we have to do it all by ourselves. [11:35] I think it's going to take a coalition of some kind to get it straight. [11:38] But, sure, we bear some responsibility. [11:41] Probably there the answer was not what I was expecting, David, [11:44] because we have seen clearly a message from the administration [11:47] that they don't believe that they should be taking the lead in this, [11:50] at least. [11:51] And there's no guarantee that they will take part in reopening the Strait. [11:54] How do you see that obligation playing out? [11:56] Well, I think there's more than one way to go about this. [12:00] And what we're seeing with the British initiative that was referenced [12:04] is that there's a coalition of producers and consumers [12:07] who are recognizing that it is in their interests [12:09] to make sure that once the American military operation is over with, [12:12] that they're doing what they can to keep the Straits open at that stage. [12:16] And so it may be better that the U.S. isn't in the leadership role. [12:19] That's actually an interesting point. [12:20] The problem will be, [12:21] this still has to be in conjunction with the U.S. [12:23] because there is an ongoing military operation in that area. [12:26] Well, the question was, do we bear some responsibility? [12:29] And the answer is, obviously, because we helped start this conflict. [12:33] Do we need to control it? [12:34] Do we need to be part of the solution? [12:36] Do we need to lead? [12:37] That's entirely different. [12:38] And I think that we'll see where these negotiations come out [12:41] and how the continued war effort in Iran goes. [12:44] You don't think the U.S. should be leading the effort? [12:47] Well, I think we'll be a strong part of it. [12:50] Why not lead? [12:51] Let's see what the international crew, [12:53] if we can get out of it and let somebody else take control over there, [12:56] more power to them. [12:58] Why put our ships in harm's way over the next six months [13:02] if we've resolved the Iranian situation? [13:04] Okay. [13:05] Do you see an argument there, if I can pick up on that point, David, [13:08] why put U.S. ships in harm's way? [13:10] There will be some of those countries who are sitting back at the moment saying, [13:13] why would we put our ships in harm's way? [13:16] I think that, again, their interests dictate their actions eventually. [13:20] And it is in the interest of, [13:22] of every economy that is of any significance to help make the straits open. [13:26] The point I think it's worth focusing on is that many of these countries [13:29] do not want to be associated with the ongoing campaign against Iran. [13:32] That doesn't mean that they won't want to be part of a coalition [13:35] that deals with the aftermath effectively. [13:37] And the United States can and should be part of that as well. [13:39] But it's a question of sequential behavior. [13:41] Yeah. [13:42] With or without America's involvement, the President has made it quite clear [13:45] he expects other countries who rely on the energy supplies produced in the Gulf [13:49] to take on a role in reopening the strait. [13:54] The countries of the world that do receive oil through the hormone strait [13:58] must take care of that passage. [14:00] They must cherish it. [14:02] They must grab it and cherish it. [14:04] They can do it easily. [14:06] We will be helpful. [14:08] But they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on. [14:13] So, David, what should those other countries be doing? [14:15] Well, exactly what they are doing. [14:17] I mean, I would like to see more. [14:18] But, frankly, they are getting together. [14:20] I think they are putting aside some of the political antagonism [14:22] directed toward President Trump. [14:24] And they are recognizing what their interests are, [14:26] which means maximum political economic pressure on Iran. [14:31] Look, once our military campaign is phasing out, [14:34] what is the justification for Iran's closure of the straits? [14:37] None. [14:38] And that is going to be the point that's going to bring this coalition against Iran to be effective. [14:43] It's the fact that even China, in the initiative, [14:45] the five-point initiative with Pakistan, [14:47] was focused on maintaining the free flow of navigation through that strait. [14:51] That will put enormous pressure on Iran. [14:52] And I think we can look to other countries to help greatly with that. [14:56] OK. I do want to get to that in a moment. [14:58] Of course, as you saw and have mentioned, [15:00] the UK Ministry of Defense has announced [15:02] there will be a meeting of military planners next week [15:05] to discuss viable options, was the phrase used, [15:08] to make the strait accessible and safe. [15:11] Now, that doesn't use the words open. [15:13] And the word viable maybe is you doing a lot of heavy lifting there, Tom. [15:17] No presence of the US. [15:20] What does a viable option look like? [15:22] Without the US there at the current moment? [15:25] Well, first of all, I think we need to see what the US does [15:27] to continue to degrade Iran's efforts to do anything there and the Houthis. [15:32] Taking down Iran's ability to hit those areas, I think, [15:36] is very, very critical to making this work. [15:38] At that point, they could put their ships through there. [15:41] There can be some takeover of parts of Iran, [15:44] some of the islands there, to try to ensure passage. [15:47] But I think there are numerous options ahead [15:49] that I think these countries will decide how they want to participate. [15:52] I may be backtracking a bit here, David, [15:55] but can we talk about this a bit more? [15:57] The countries that are expected to take some role in reopening the strait, [16:02] they didn't start the war. [16:04] They certainly have refused to be, by and large, [16:06] certainly not directly militarily involved in the war. [16:09] And I accept that obviously there is some benefit to them, [16:12] quite a lot of benefit to them in terms of energy and fuel resources. [16:15] But is there a risk here that they are being asked to incur [16:19] some kind of military loss, huge economic cost, [16:22] perhaps even lives lost, should they head into that area [16:26] while it is still potentially quite fraught with Iran's possibility [16:30] of reigniting the conflict? [16:32] Well, a lot of hypotheticals there. [16:34] Sure, but not unreasonable necessarily. [16:36] No, no, but they have a lot at stake as well. [16:38] And frankly, what we're seeing is there was a shadow hanging over all of us, [16:42] including the Gulf Arabs. [16:44] It was called the Iranian terrorist threat. [16:46] We are now seeing what they potentially could do. [16:48] So we have a president who has taken steps [16:50] that no previous president was willing to take. [16:52] to change that equation. [16:54] And I think once we're done with the intense military part of this, [16:58] other countries can step in and help us out. [17:00] I don't think the United States is going to be able to be [17:02] completely absent from that. [17:03] The value of our intelligence, our political relationships, [17:06] our communication skills, the economic things we can do [17:09] directed toward Iran will all play part of this [17:11] in pressuring them to do the right thing or the necessary thing. [17:14] The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, of course, [17:17] presents another worrying concern, [17:19] the potential for other nations to unilaterally close vital waterways. [17:22] Something the Secretary of State is acutely aware of. [17:25] Not only is the sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz not acceptable to us, [17:29] it won't be acceptable to the world. [17:31] No one in the world can accept it. [17:33] Number one, it sets an incredible precedent. [17:35] So this means that nations can now take over international waterways [17:38] and claim them as their own? [17:40] The United States could do that now. [17:43] All right, Tom, is this another Suez Canal? [17:46] I don't think so. [17:47] I think it's going to be resolved shortly, in the next couple of months. [17:50] But degrading, continuing to degrade Iran [17:53] is a critical part of this. [17:55] Getting international forces or ships in there [17:58] to ensure that the straits are free and clear [18:01] I think is a part of that. [18:02] I think it's all in the doable range. [18:04] Just remember this. [18:05] Sooner or later, Iran was going to get a nuclear weapon. [18:08] And at that point, some of these European countries [18:10] could have been the targets [18:12] as they put these long-range ballistic missiles in there. [18:15] So I think this was going to happen sooner or later [18:17] and I think the president felt this was the right time. [18:19] Okay. [18:20] David, can I ask you, [18:21] and I'm sorry to keep putting these hypotheticals to you, [18:22] I'll apologise in advance, [18:23] but what is the risk that other waterways [18:25] become subjected to this kind of conflict chokehold? [18:28] And I'm thinking, you know, [18:30] a portion of the South China Sea [18:32] or a Northwest Passage-type conflict. [18:34] Right, it's a lesson to all of us. [18:35] And that's why certain principles need to be laid down. [18:38] And because the Straits of Malacca is one example. [18:42] There are a dozen places around the world you can pinpoint [18:45] where it's not just energy [18:46] but basically international trade is primarily ship-borne. [18:49] So it's very important that the United States [18:51] continue to play a strong role with others [18:53] who are dependent upon this to lay the principle down. [18:57] Tom, where does the US lie then [19:00] in terms of its international obligations? [19:02] Now, I know they're not legally bound to patrol waterways, [19:06] but what obligation does the US have [19:08] in terms of monitoring waterways? [19:10] Well, we're the strongest navy in the world. [19:12] And I think we bear that responsibility at this point. [19:15] I still think we are the lead free country in the world [19:18] in terms of ensuring that the world order is respected. [19:22] And that it's stored and safe for everybody. [19:24] So I think that will continue. [19:26] And I think we recognize at this point [19:28] that military spending has got to continue to be a part [19:30] of where America is. [19:31] It's a dangerous world. [19:33] The UN has also heard from Gulf leaders [19:35] who are of course primarily concerned [19:37] with the ongoing disruption to their economies [19:39] and main trade route. [19:44] Disruption in the Gulf immediately affects global markets. [19:47] And this has become evident in recent events [19:50] where navigation through the Strait of Hormuz [19:52] has been disrupted. [19:54] This has led to higher oil prices, [19:56] increased shipping and insurance costs, [19:59] and heightened risks to global energy [20:01] and economic stability. [20:04] Tom, I'll come to you. [20:05] If Iran opens up the waterway, [20:07] but wants to maintain control, [20:09] is that a partial compromise [20:11] in terms of at least getting the route open again? [20:13] Well, I think primarily everybody wants the route open. [20:16] The world needs the route open. [20:18] So I think that's primary. [20:19] But what conditions the United States is willing to accept [20:22] so that they don't come in and build a bomb, [20:24] and export terrorism to other countries, [20:26] I think that's a non-negotiable demand. [20:28] There are other sorts of demands [20:29] that could be made here, David. [20:30] I'm thinking of the likes of [20:31] if they maintain control of the Strait, [20:33] imposing taxes or fees. [20:34] And that is one of... [20:35] We do understand from Iranian media [20:37] that there is a draft protocol [20:39] with Oman being prepared. [20:41] And that may be one of the features [20:42] of a report such as that. [20:44] Would that be a concern? [20:45] I suspect it'd be a red line for many nations, [20:47] including the United States. [20:48] Free flow of transportation through these places [20:52] is critically important. [20:53] This isn't some canal that somebody paid for and built. [20:56] This is a natural... [20:57] This is part of the world. [20:59] And there are two sides to the straits. [21:01] So I think that that is something [21:03] that everyone with an interest in free navigation [21:06] would oppose. [21:07] Is there a tipping point [21:08] at which perhaps they would pay a fee? [21:11] I would really doubt it. [21:14] OK. Do you agree? [21:15] I agree with that. [21:16] Maybe on a temporary basis [21:17] to get things as they get clogged up, [21:19] but I don't think the world will stand for it. [21:21] It's a terrible precedent. [21:22] The US does still get in touch [21:24] to get around 10% of its energy from the region, [21:27] but the president was at pains to point out in his address [21:30] that supply is not an issue. [21:33] Remember, because of our drill-baby-drill program, [21:36] America has plenty of gas. [21:37] We have so much gas. [21:39] Under my leadership, [21:40] we are number one producer of oil and gas on the planet [21:44] without even discussing the millions of barrels [21:47] that we're getting from Venezuela. [21:50] All right, David, I'll come to you. [21:51] Is the US going to write off that supply from the Gulf? [21:54] I think that's a short-sighted approach. [21:56] Energy markets are interconnected. [22:00] You know, it's a fungible commodity. [22:03] The United States, since 1945, [22:05] has been committed to the defense [22:07] of the free flow of energy out of the Persian Gulf [22:09] because it's in our global interests. [22:11] Even back then, we were energy independent. [22:13] We are again, which is good, and the president's right. [22:15] That gives us certain strengths, [22:16] but it doesn't make us immune [22:18] to the consequences of turbulence there. [22:20] Tom, do you agree with that? [22:21] I agree. [22:22] It's priced globally, [22:24] so any hindrance of getting that into the marketplace [22:27] is going to affect prices here, [22:29] particularly going into an election cycle. [22:31] He seems pretty determined, though, [22:32] that the US does not need anything [22:33] from that region at the moment. [22:35] Well, I think we want their support, [22:38] but if we have to go it alone, [22:40] I think he's made it clear [22:41] we're willing to do that with Israel. [22:43] There's been a lot made of US domestic production, David. [22:46] Do you feel that that is a message [22:47] meant to reassure the public, [22:49] even if it's perhaps a shifting picture at times? [22:52] Partly, but I also think [22:54] it is, as Tom's, I think, alluding to, [22:56] it's meant to put pressure on others [22:58] who are even more dependent on energy from the Gulf [23:00] to step up and play a role here, [23:02] even if it's not to join the campaign this moment [23:04] to help us with the long-term consequences. [23:06] All right. [23:07] Can we look at any withdrawal from the conflict? [23:11] Where do you see that immediately having an impact [23:13] on energy prices and stability of the market? [23:16] Well, I think once the straits are opened up, [23:18] I think it will take some time, [23:20] but I think oil prices go down. [23:22] And that's important [23:23] for domestic American politics. [23:25] I don't think the president's going to make his decision [23:27] on what's good for the Republican Party per se, [23:29] but I think everybody understands that oil prices, [23:32] gas prices are something the American voters see viscerally [23:35] and has an effect on their voting behavior in November. [23:38] So we're eager to get the straits reopened [23:40] as quickly as we can. [23:41] Yeah. [23:42] The United States' own energy secretary [23:44] doesn't seem too concerned about any immediate impact [23:47] on America's capacity to produce or export oil. [23:51] I mean, markets do what markets do. [23:53] Prices went up to send signals [23:55] to everyone that can produce more, [23:57] please produce more. [23:59] Prices have not risen high enough yet [24:01] to drive meaningful demand destruction. [24:04] But Americans and energy entrepreneurs [24:07] around the world are ingenious. [24:09] So things are being done. [24:12] All right, David, things are being done. [24:14] Do you feel confident in that message? [24:17] Look, I'm not an expert on energy markets, [24:19] so I have to defer to them. [24:21] But I do think that the duration of this campaign, [24:24] it will end, [24:26] and markets will reestablish a balance. [24:29] All right, Tom, any final thoughts? [24:31] No, I think everybody here is hopeful this can be resolved, [24:36] but I don't think the president's going to withdraw [24:38] until we can make sure Iran can no longer export terrorism [24:42] and doesn't have nuclear capability. [24:44] The strait might be closed for a while to go. [24:47] All right, Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman, [24:49] and David Hale, former U.S. ambassador [24:51] and undersecretary of state for political affairs. [24:53] Thank you both. [24:55] Thank you. [24:56] The world's economic choke point, [24:58] the Strait of Hormuz, [24:59] and the world watching Iran's chokehold online. [25:01] Trump had been navigating how to force that open, [25:03] but now increasingly he's leaning back. [25:05] When this conflict is over, [25:07] the strait will open up naturally. [25:09] It'll just open up naturally. [25:11] Political reporter David Hale [25:12] has been at the U.S. embassy in New York [25:14] for the last two weeks. [25:15] He's been in the U.S. for the last three weeks. [25:17] He's been in the U.S. for the last three weeks. [25:19] He's been in the U.S. for the last three weeks. [25:21] He's been in the U.S. for the last three weeks. [25:23] He's been in the U.S. for the last three weeks. [25:26] Pulitzer Prize winner Ann Applebaum [25:27] hearing echoes of his comments on COVID. [25:29] One day, like a miracle, [25:31] it'll disappear. [25:33] Iran's military reminding Trump [25:34] that any dreams of controlling Hormuz [25:37] will be buried together with the U.S. [25:40] AEI videos like this, [25:42] doing the rounds with millions. [25:44] Club Hormuz closed to the president. [25:46] Iran allowing only the tankers [25:47] of a very select few nations through, [25:50] and maritime hawks watching those movements, [25:52] and lack there of, [25:53] in real time. [25:54] real time. Professor Robert Pape saying despite Trump's projection of strength, Iran's power over [26:00] the global economy won't suddenly disappear with some choice words. Going to bring them back to the [26:08] Stone Ages where they belong. That speech from the White House on Wednesday night in D.C. dismissed [26:13] by Democrats. Senator Chuck Schumer saying has there ever been a more rambling, disjointed and [26:19] pathetic presidential war speech? One of America's greatest blunders. But Secretary of State Marco [26:25] Rubio sticking to his president's guns, quite literally peace through strength. Despite that, [26:31] that fatigue is starting to show. Even conservative heavyweights getting tired of that saber rattling. [26:37] The executive producer of The Charlie Kirk Show saying it's time to go home. Let's declare victory [26:42] and leave. Alex Baird reporting. That's all from the team here in Washington, D.C. On This Is America, [26:50] we'll keep following. [26:51] the decisions that shape the U.S. and influence the world. If you want to catch up on this episode [26:56] or previous ones, head to our website aljazeera.com or check out our YouTube channel. For now, [27:02] we'll hand back to Al Jazeera's global headquarters in Doha for more coverage of the Iran war, [27:07] as well as a full update of the rest of the day's news. Thanks for joining us.