Hormuz brief: Iran's '2 navies', mine removal tactics & stranded ship crews

[0:00] President Trump is saying he's the one keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. He posted on social [0:05] media, Iran is collapsing financially. They want the Strait of Hormuz open immediately, [0:10] starving for cash, losing $500 million a day. Military and police complaining that they are [0:15] not getting paid SOS. Kenneth Braithwaite is with us now. He served as Secretary of the Navy [0:21] during the first Trump administration. Thank you so much for being with us to talk about [0:26] this critical time that we're looking at here. And in the middle of the ceasefire extension, [0:31] Iran has seized these two ships in the Strait. A Greek-linked cargo ship was also attacked. [0:36] How are you looking at Iran's actions here? Well, again, I think they're desperate. [0:40] The blockade's working. I mean, we have the most formidable naval armada that we've ever put [0:46] together in decades there. We have three carrier strike groups. We have two amphibious readiness [0:51] groups. There's over 10 destroyers there. I mean, the firepower that's been amassed there by the U.S. [0:56] Navy is unprecedented. So I think they're just grasping for straws. [1:01] I wonder what this does tell you, though, about the status of Iran's Navy, because obviously [1:05] completely making it non-operational is one of the stated objectives of this administration, [1:14] and they have championed that they've been able to do that. But then you look at what's happened [1:20] here and the capabilities. How much capability does it take to do something like this? [1:24] So there's actually two navies, Sebriana. There's the Iranian Navy, which was decimated, [1:29] as the president indicated, in some of the initial strikes. So a navy, as we know it, doesn't exist [1:35] anymore. But what Iran has is the guards' navy. These are the small, commercially acquired high-speed [1:45] boats with, you know, different weapons on board that are close in. And enough of those are swarmed [1:53] together. It makes a real challenge. There is quality and quantity. And so that's what we're up against [2:00] now with these small guards' navy craft. [2:03] That sort of drives home the asymmetric nature that the U.S. is facing here. [2:07] Absolutely. [2:08] So does it matter then, in a way, if you have the big war? Yes, it's such a huge, I think, win when it [2:17] comes to the narrative to see these pictures of big warships that are destroyed. But when you're [2:21] looking at what even these small vessels can do armed with the right weapons, does it take away from [2:27] what the Trump administration has said they've accomplished thus far? I don't think so. But [2:32] remember, the theater of operations matters, right? You and I both know how narrow the strait is. [2:38] The channel that goes through there is only two miles wide. I mean, the Iranians can stand off [2:43] up to 1,000 kilometers and be able to target that with Chinese-provided anti-ship missiles. [2:50] Then on top of that, you have the guards' navy and the asymmetrical aspect that you just alluded to. [2:56] And then you have mines that are put in the water. I mean, again, it is a very constrained [3:01] area to operate in. You could have the greatest navy, which we do in the world, and still be up [3:07] against some of these challenges just because of the environment in which you're operating. [3:10] The ceasefire extension that the president agreed to last night does not have a specified end date. [3:17] And I wonder how much you think that matters. [3:19] I think it does matter. I think, you know, to really do what we need to do there, [3:29] which is to seize the enriched uranium, that's our strategic objective. To do that, [3:35] we'd have to put boots on the ground. And I think every military leader, all that I've spoken to, [3:40] many that you've had on this show, that's untenable for America to wrap their arms around, [3:44] right? I don't think there's the support for that in the United States. So, therefore, [3:53] the president needs this time in order to be able to get to a deal. I'm just hoping that that deal [3:59] includes making sure that the enriched uranium is ours. And of course, it has to open the strait. [4:06] The fractured leadership, the damage that has been done to the leadership, and the way that may [4:14] have fractured some of the communications and the ability to operate as usual, is part of the [4:20] reason why the president's top aides believe they did not hear back from the Iranians yesterday. [4:27] How are you seeing that? [4:29] Yeah, no, I absolutely believe that. The command and control that existed before [4:33] with the Supreme Leader, there was no question. Today, really, who is in control? Who is in [4:40] command of both the Iranian forces, the IRGC, what's left of the Iranian Navy? Who's speaking [4:47] on behalf of who? I'm not sure that we really have identified or understood that. [4:53] Former Navy Explosive Ordinance Disposal Officer Tom Sauer is over at the Magic Wall. Tom, [4:59] boy, am I glad that you are here because this big question of what do these mines look like? And I [5:05] just would love for you to walk us through what it would even take to safely remove them. [5:12] Sure. Thanks for having me, Laura. So this is an example of some of the mines that we're likely to [5:17] see find in Iran. Now, keep in mind, as of a couple hours ago, no mines have been found yet. Nothing [5:25] confirmed, but we do suspect that there are maybe a dozen, maybe more, even in recent days, there [5:31] might have been some more surreptitious mining by the IRGC Navy. So, but the main types of mines [5:36] you're looking at right now that we're thinking about are moored mines, right? It's tethered by a [5:41] cable or a chain that's anchored to the seabed floor, and then it floats, it's buoyant, and it rests [5:46] just below the waterline typically, so it's hard to see. And it's detonated by either contact, [5:52] as it gets hit by a ship, or it has a magnetometer, a giant metal detector on it, whereas if a ship [5:58] comes near it, it would detonate. Those can be very sophisticated. In fact, you could even have [6:03] a ship counter on these mines so that it won't detonate on the first ship that goes past it. [6:09] It might not detonate till the sixth, seventh, or 20th ship that goes past it. So, and also you have [6:13] bottom mines that are meant for more shallow water, generally speaking, that also can be set off by [6:19] a magnetometer or a large chunk of metal or acoustic. It has microphones, hydrophones that [6:25] would listen for a ship, and you can also have those same issues with setting off a ship that [6:30] you've made at the first ship, the sixth ship, we'll see. So these are like really the main threats [6:35] that we're thinking of. Now, keep in mind, the United States Navy and Central, U.S. Central Command [6:40] got left of splash. We destroyed 99% of all their facility, of all their mine facilities and mine [6:47] leaning facilities. Well, talk to me about the vessels or the equipment you would need. And now [6:52] that we know what we're talking about, what do you need in the minesweeping mission to rid the [6:58] seas of this and make it safe? We have an incredible inventory that's led primarily by Navy EOD officers, [7:08] which is my former line of work. It's my family's business. So what we do primarily, you see [7:13] unmanned underwater vehicles, part of expeditionary mine countermeasures. We are currently doing some [7:18] searching right there. It's a little more low visibility. It's less out in the open and it's [7:24] less intense, but we're searching. We're hunting for mines, right? We're looking for anyone that's [7:28] out there. You also have Surface MCM. We have some of our littoral combat ships, and we also have [7:33] two of our Avenger-class minesweepers, the USS Chief and USS Warrior, that are on their way as well, [7:40] coming from Japan. And we also have airborne MCM, which are helicopters, both like that, and also the [7:46] very large helicopter that would tow sweeping and mining equipment. They're on their way from a very [7:51] large ship, the USS John L. Canley, which is an expeditionary support base that's on its way from [7:57] the Indian Ocean right now. So the president has suggested that this is going to be a team effort. [8:02] What role will the United States or will Iran play? Great question, Laura. I could tell you one thing [8:09] right now is that the United States Navy does not ask permission to operate in the Persian Gulf or [8:15] anywhere around it. The United States Navy is the most powerful Navy in the world, and anything that [8:20] is in the air or floats near it right now is doing so because the Navy is allowing it to do so. So we [8:25] don't need Iranian permission to clear the strait. Now, if they want to provide some information to us [8:30] saying, yes, we laid some mines here, here, and here, and we'll go get them. It's not an easy task, [8:35] and it's not easy task for the United States to pull any mines, even our own. I doubt the Iranians [8:41] have any capability whatsoever because if you remember, we destroyed their entire Navy. All [8:46] that they have left are these little gashti boats, which are like speed boats, where they might have [8:50] kicked a few mines over the side in the middle of the night and where we missed them. So it's going to [8:55] be a United States effort. Maybe we'll see some more partners, but we'll see what happens. [8:58] What we want to know is how bad is the situation for stranded seafarers in the Persian Gulf. [9:03] Joining me now, Arsenio Dominguez, head of the International Maritime Organization. Thank you so [9:08] much for joining us, sir. Just give us some of the stories you've been hearing from the Gulf. [9:17] Thank you for the opportunity. And the reality, as you said, is that as long as the crisis continue, [9:23] it will get worse for the innocent seafarers that are trapped in there. We're counting around 20,000 of [9:29] them that have been in the Persian Gulf, not able to live since this conflict started. And for the [9:37] longer it goes, the more difficult it will be to actually maintain their mental health, [9:42] their levels of fatigue and stress. At the same time, the essential supplies that they need [9:49] to live on board the vessels. We're talking about water, food, and even fuel for the vessels to [9:56] continue to be in the area. Are they living off existing supplies? Presumably, they can go to land [10:03] and get other supplies. But there are challenges to that. We have to remember that this is still an [10:12] area in conflict, and that some port facilities have been targeted and have been hit. Also, [10:19] there's the challenges that the supplies are going up in cost. And of course, there's less supply that [10:24] is also going into these countries because shipping is not being able to operate in and out of the [10:29] Strait of Hormuz. So there is still the challenge on the provision of these supplies and the fact that [10:37] very soon, if this extends, the countries in the regions will also have problems. [10:41] Take us through the mental pressures they're living through. As you say, it's a war zone. [10:47] They're concerned about being hit. They want to get out, but they're going to be very concerned [10:52] about going through the Strait because of the threat of being hit for reasons way out of their [10:59] control. Just what is that like for the people on those ships? It's very critical, the situation. [11:07] And of course, it's still safer to be there than venturing, trying to go through the Strait of Hormuz [11:14] when there's the possibility of mines that can cause damage the ships, as well as the fact that [11:20] they've been targeted by Iran if they cross without any agreement of notifications to them. [11:26] And I had the opportunity to speak today with one seafarer that spent nearly six weeks in the Persian [11:34] Gulf. And it was terrible to listen to the stress that him and his co-workers have been going through. [11:41] The fact that at night, one of the main concerns was the debris of missiles that could fall in these [11:47] vessels. And of course, some of them are carrying fuel, which immediately will ignite the vessels [11:52] themselves. The fact that they have to change positions in order not to be targeted. They do get [11:59] that support from the companies. And he was explaining in particularly how it was in this situation that [12:05] they even managed to get some supplies. But they connect with each other in the different vessels [12:10] that are all trapped there, nearly 2,000 vessels, and they exchange their experiences. But all of them [12:16] just want to live. They want to carry on back to the lives where they provide for everyone around the [12:21] world. They don't feel that they are recognized or even valued and they'll be used as leverage. [12:29] Yeah, it's a tragic situation. Arsenio Dominguez, really appreciate you bringing that to light for us. [12:34] How difficult and how long can the United States keep this up if they want to as a key pressure [12:41] point to force Iran to negotiate? Well, thank you for having me this morning, John. And it is a [12:46] difficult challenge for our Navy. I'm, of course, very proud of all our service members in the Middle [12:50] East who are performing their missions very admirably. But as we know, naval blockades can be difficult to [12:55] execute. This is about 100 mile channel, of course, at its narrowest point. It's about six miles wide, [13:01] with two-mile transit channels going in either direction, a two-mile buffer. [13:07] It is obviously easy to control at its most narrowest point. But we're also conducting a naval [13:11] blockade or a naval quarantine on about 10 to 11 other ports along the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of [13:18] Oman as well, too. Five strategic ports. Just yesterday, there were two, several ships that were [13:23] actually stopped from exiting Iranian ports. And so it is a difficult challenge, and it gets more [13:29] difficult as time goes by as well, even with all the forces that we have in place. [13:34] Yeah, it's interesting what you're saying, Secretary, because this is the Strait of Hormuz, [13:37] people can see right here. This is the stretch where the shipping lane is only two miles long. [13:40] This is the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf, depending on you say it. [13:43] This is where so much of the focus has been. But a lot of the work being done in the blockade is down [13:48] here in the Gulf of Oman, in this region here, and then out into the open sea. So you can see [13:54] the level of U.S. forces that it would take, that it does take to continue this, although by all [13:59] accounts, at least right now, it is going well. I do want to focus on a threat that the Iranians make [14:06] regularly. There's been an Iranian general who says, okay, if you continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, [14:10] the U.S., we're going to look down here. We're going to look at the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandeb, [14:15] straight down here, where the Saudis and others have been using to get oil out there. How real [14:21] is the threat of Iran to somehow close this Strait? Well, you're absolutely right, John. It is a real [14:27] threat. And of course, Iran's greatest leverage over the current situation actually is the global [14:33] economy and the negative impact that it will have on the global economy. So if they actually get [14:39] their proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, to continue attacks in the Sea of Aden and through the Straits [14:44] of Bab al-Mandeb, then that creates additional pressure on the global economy as well, too, [14:50] that will create even more difficulty for the negotiations that are going on. And remember, [14:54] we actually fought the Houthis for two years from about September of 2023 to October of 2025. [15:02] The cost of that conflict alone was about $12 billion, $6 billion per year. And of course, [15:08] we're seeing the cost of the current conflict be more around $2 billion per month now. So this is a [15:14] significant impact on our economy. It's a significant impact on the global economy.