Hormuz blockade and nuclear deadlock reshape US–Iran negotiations, analysts say

[0:00] Tuesday marks two months of a war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, [0:04] a war that's reshaped the region and is hurting countries far beyond. [0:08] On February 28th, the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, [0:12] assassinating its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. [0:15] Khamenei was replaced by his son, [0:16] and government institutions remain largely unchanged. [0:20] A temporary ceasefire is now in place. [0:22] Iran's health minister says that U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed [0:26] more than 3,000 Iranians over the five and a half weeks of fighting. [0:30] Hospitals, homes at historic sites lie in ruins. [0:34] So does the Iranian economy, [0:36] already crippled by years of Western sanctions. [0:40] The conflict spilled over across the region, [0:42] most acutely in Lebanon, [0:43] where Iran-allied Hezbollah attacked Israel on March 2nd. [0:47] Israeli attacks have since killed thousands of Lebanese, [0:51] displaced more than a million more. [0:53] And it's invaded southern Lebanon, [0:55] raising villages to the ground. [0:57] A ceasefire there is on the brink of collapse. [1:00] Gulf nations weren't spared either. [1:03] Iran tried to spread the cost of war [1:05] by attacking its own neighbours, [1:07] hitting energy infrastructure and civilian sites. [1:10] The cost of the war has been felt worldwide. [1:13] Rival blockades by Iran and the U.S. on the Strait of Hormuz [1:16] have upended global energy markets. [1:19] Qatar's foreign ministry says that using the Strait of Hormuz [1:22] as a political weapon is not acceptable [1:26] and has warned against the possibility of a frozen conflict in the Gulf [1:30] as the talks between the U.S. and Iran hit an impasse. [1:34] On reopening the Strait, first of all, we have said from day one, [1:39] the act of blocking navigation through the Strait [1:44] is not something that can be justified or accepted in any situation. [1:48] And using the Strait as leverage in any political or military conflict [1:54] is something that we refuse as a premise. [1:56] And therefore, anything that justifies or legitimizes [2:02] the use of the Strait as a political weapon, [2:05] for us this is not accepted in any means. [2:08] But we are engaging with all our interlocutors [2:11] to get the Strait opened as soon as possible. [2:13] We believe it should have never been closed [2:15] and it should be opened immediately [2:17] regardless of other considerations going on in the region. [2:21] Let's bring in our guests here in Doha. [2:24] We're joined by Mark Kimmett, [2:26] a retired U.S. general and former Assistant Secretary of State [2:29] for Political and Military Affairs. [2:31] Joining us from Tehran is Mohamed Aslami, [2:34] who's a political researcher, columnist and economist. [2:37] And also here in Doha, Zaydoun Al-Qinani, [2:40] the founding director of the Arab Perspectives Institute. [2:43] Gentlemen, welcome to you all. [2:44] General, let's start with you. [2:45] We just heard Qatar cautioning against the possibility [2:47] of a frozen conflict in the Gulf. [2:50] Two months on, is that a realistic possibility? [2:53] I really don't. [2:54] I think that the significant pressure on the world economy [2:57] and what would look to be a formation of a coalition of nations [3:03] willing to escort the tankers in and out [3:05] and the fertilizer in and out, [3:07] I don't see this as a frozen conflict, [3:10] but an emerging solution. [3:12] Mohamed Aslami, we were hearing earlier [3:15] that the White House is considering the latest Iranian proposals. [3:20] Do we happen to know? [3:21] Would you like to speculate what's actually in those proposals? [3:25] I think that, first of all, thank you so much for having me. [3:31] I think that the Iranians have declared that [3:33] the state of the promise will not open in any ways [3:37] unless the Americans stop in the naval blockade. [3:42] And regarding the negotiations, [3:45] the Iranians will not going to negotiate with the Americans [3:48] if the Americans wouldn't change their decision [3:53] regarding the naval blockade too. [3:55] So I think that, yes, [3:57] the Iranians are thinking about the framework [3:58] for considering some diplomatic settlements, [4:01] but we have yet to see what's going on in the future. [4:05] Zaidoun, as we've been reporting, [4:07] Gulf leaders were meeting today in Saudi Arabia [4:10] after being directly hit during this conflict. [4:13] They're still not shaping the negotiations, [4:17] at least not directly. [4:18] They don't have a seat at the table [4:21] if and when those negotiations resume. [4:23] Why? [4:24] Well, it doesn't necessarily mean [4:26] that they don't have a say in the negotiations. [4:28] The Islamabad talks wasn't unilaterally facilitated [4:31] by the Pakistani mediators. [4:33] Many regional actors have been involved [4:35] in pushing for those negotiations to take place, [4:37] such as Turkey and Egypt, [4:38] and most prominently as well Saudi Arabia. [4:40] Talks between the GCC countries [4:42] and talks between the GCC and their international [4:44] and regional allies have always existed [4:47] since the beginning of the war. [4:49] They are involved in the different format [4:50] of the negotiations. [4:52] It's just the level of the official term [4:55] and the theme of their involvement [4:57] that determines it to be a bit different. [4:59] The Qataris used to be way more involved [5:01] in the past in facilitating talks. [5:03] The Al-Manis were also way more involved. [5:05] The location, the geographical location [5:07] of the negotiations, being in Islamabad, [5:09] does not mean it's completely isolating [5:12] the GCC perspective here. [5:13] General, President Trump says that Iran has asked him [5:16] to lift his blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. [5:19] With the straits still constrained [5:22] and the U.S. continuing to maintain pressure, [5:25] how close are we to a miscalculation at sea [5:28] rather than a diplomatic breakthrough [5:30] the longer this blockade goes on? [5:33] Well, first of all, I'm encouraged [5:34] by the offer made by President Trump [5:36] to lift the American portion of the dual blockade. [5:40] I would just certainly hope [5:41] that the Iranians reciprocate. [5:42] And one of the reasons is for the very notion you mentioned, [5:46] a miscalculation at sea. [5:48] Some young Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps [5:51] motorboat commander, speedboat commander [5:54] goes out in the middle of the Gulf, [5:56] serendipitously hits a tanker [5:59] or an American ship causing casualties. [6:01] I think that could cause the situation [6:04] to blow up again. [6:07] Mohamed Aslani, Iran has in recent days [6:10] engaged Russia, Oman, and other regional mediators. [6:16] Is that a sign of strength on its part, [6:19] of confidence or of mistrust? [6:25] You know that right now the Americans [6:26] missed the chance to negotiate with the Iranians. [6:30] Right now Iranians are engaging [6:32] in so many different informed, [6:35] I mean important discussions [6:37] with Pakistanis, with their Omanic counterparts [6:39] and I should mention Russians. [6:42] The Iranian foreign minister met President Putin. [6:46] Their discussions was not only about the negotiations [6:49] or the diplomatic solutions [6:51] for the Persian Gulf and the Serda Formos. [6:54] It was more than that [6:55] and it was about so many other topics [6:57] that the Iranians and the Russians [6:58] are thinking about collaboratively. [7:01] So I think that when it comes to Serda Formos, [7:04] it is clear that the Iranians [7:05] will not leave their Serda Formos [7:08] to go back to what was before the war. [7:13] Let's pause for a moment [7:15] to take a look at the sticking points. [7:17] Iran's latest ceasefire proposal [7:19] focuses on ending the fighting first. [7:21] Tehran says that it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz [7:24] if Washington lifts its naval blockade [7:27] on Iranian ports, [7:28] but that nuclear talks would be delayed. [7:32] U.S. officials say that Trump [7:33] is unhappy with Iran's proposal [7:35] because it doesn't address Iran's nuclear program. [7:38] Washington is pushing for a 20-year suspension [7:41] of Iran's uranium enrichment program [7:43] and the transfer of its highly enriched uranium stockpile. [7:47] Tehran has rejected demands to abandon enrichment. [7:51] Iran says that its nuclear program is civilian. [7:54] It's also a signatory [7:55] to the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [7:59] Trump demands assurances [8:00] that Iran will never be able to build a nuclear weapon. [8:03] He's repeatedly criticized the 2015 nuclear deal [8:07] for allowing some enrichment. [8:09] So, General, we've just mapped out the standoff, [8:11] no agreement on a deal [8:12] or what a deal actually looks like. [8:15] So, what breaks the deadlock? [8:17] Well, first of all, that's in no way a deal. [8:20] That's a proposal. [8:20] There are two proposals, [8:22] one from the Iranians, [8:23] one from the Americans. [8:24] I think more important than what breaks the deadlock [8:28] is what doesn't move this along. [8:30] And it's the notion that somehow the Iranians are saying, [8:34] for the Strait of Hormuz being opened up, [8:37] we want to kick the nuclear negotiations [8:39] down the road to an indefinite period. [8:41] That's what the Americans went to war for. [8:44] There is very little chance [8:45] that the Americans will accept any proposal [8:47] that kicks the nuclear program down, [8:50] that kicks that can down the road. [8:51] And Zaidoun, with economic pressure continuing, [8:55] as far as the Gulf nations are concerned, [8:59] from the Strait disruption, [9:01] are they pushing harder for a deal, [9:03] any deal or stronger guarantees? [9:06] I think in the short term, [9:08] they're pushing harder, [9:09] given that they're following a mindset [9:11] of an emergency crisis. [9:13] It's an existential direct threat [9:15] to their geopolitical security. [9:17] So, in terms of the short term, [9:19] they're also overlooking the, [9:20] perhaps, the divergences or the differences [9:23] amongst the GCC political house, [9:25] which is why they're trying to prevent [9:28] the continuity of this war in the short term. [9:30] But long term, one can imagine [9:32] that there may be diverse political approaches [9:35] and opinions in the future relationship with Iran, [9:38] in the future relationship between the GCC states, [9:40] perhaps revisiting security arrangements [9:42] that would ensure much more collective coordination [9:45] between one another [9:45] to ensure that they could be stronger together, [9:48] politically, institutionally, [9:50] but also from a security perspective [9:51] to prevent such an attack [9:53] or such a direct threat happening in the future. [9:56] And Mohamed Aslani, [9:57] with the straits still restricted, [9:59] does Iran see its control over the straits [10:01] as its main leverage [10:04] in shaping the form of, [10:07] indeed, the outcome of any negotiations? [10:13] Let me tell you something. [10:14] After the war, [10:15] there was a debate in Iran. [10:17] It was not about the Islamic Republic. [10:19] Most of the policymakers think that, [10:23] but that the not controlling the straits [10:26] of Hormuzh is a historical mistake [10:29] by the Iranians. [10:30] It's not about supporting the Islamic Republic. [10:33] It is for Iranians. [10:35] It's about supporting the Iranian nation [10:37] and their right, [10:39] the right of the nation [10:40] to control their straits of Hormuzh. [10:43] So I think that from the Iranian point of view, [10:46] the straits of Hormuzh is much more [10:48] than a tactical card. [10:50] It's a strategic point of view [10:52] regarding the straits of Hormuzh. [10:53] And right now, [10:54] the Iranians are open to discuss [10:56] with every country [10:57] regarding their free passage [10:59] of the straits of Hormuzh [11:00] based on the bilateral relations. [11:02] And, General, last one to you. [11:04] If talks remain stalled, [11:06] does the military track [11:08] start to take over again by default, [11:11] even if neither side actually [11:12] wants any further escalation? [11:15] Well, I actually think [11:16] the middle point is [11:18] that coalition of nations [11:19] that will be blockade runners [11:21] and escorting the ships [11:23] in and out of the strait of Hormuzh. [11:25] If Iran doesn't have [11:27] that leverage [11:28] of claiming sovereignty [11:30] over the strait of Hormuzh [11:32] and a willingness [11:32] to use military power [11:34] against those blockade runners, [11:36] I think they're going to find themselves [11:37] in a very difficult position [11:38] about trying to not have [11:40] nuclear negotiations [11:42] because without the strait of Hormuzh, [11:44] what do they have? [11:46] General Mount Kermit, [11:47] Mohammed Aslami, [11:48] and Zaidoun Al-Kinani. [11:50] Many thanks indeed to you.