Historic Market Implosion: Bigger Crash Or Rebound Next Week? — Gareth Soloway

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Happy Halloween, everybody. I'm dressed up as the Grim Reaper today because that's exactly how the market's been behaving, killing your gains, especially if you've been in tech. What an awful week it's been for tech. Google just lost $500 billion over the last 48 hours of market cap, went down 12% after hours trading in Thursday after a disappointing earnings report. Intel went down 30%. NVIDIA down 5%, AMD down 10%. Reddit down double digits. That's not really in the tech sector. But still, Gareth Soloway is going to help us explain exactly what's going on. He's the president of Verified Investing, and he's going to tell us whether or not this spookiness is going to continue past Halloween, or are we going to get a big bounce on Monday? We'll find out. Gareth, [00:00:40] Gareth Soloway: welcome back to the show. Good to see you. Hey, good to see the Grim Reaper here. It certainly was [00:00:45] Speaker 1: that type of week, David. Thanks for having me back. Thanks for coming. Yeah, it's important to note that not everything got killed, so to speak. Gold went down, silver went down. We'll talk about that. Bitcoin went down, probably following tech, probably because of the Binance hack. We can talk about that as well. But I want to show my screen just for a minute here. This is the S&P 500 heat map. And importantly, I want to highlight the distinction between a broad market sell-off within the S&P and a rotation away from tech, which appears to be what happened in the last couple of days, because it wasn't everything that went down. If you look at my screen here, you can see that consumer defensives were pretty much in the green, right? Staples went up. Energy, oil had a big update on Friday. Basic materials, utilities went up. Healthcare was a big gainer. It was really just communications and tech that pulled down the index. And so people commented, well, the S&P is down only two and a half percent. Well, first of all, that's a pretty big deal for a one-day move. But second, it didn't go down further because most stocks within the S&P actually went up on the day. It was just the biggest tech names dragged down the index. So my first question to you is, Gareth, you've been talking about a broad market defensive play for quite some time. This tech sell-off, does this indicate to you that the entire broad market is at risk because we talk about tech pulling down the broad or is this an opportunity to rotate into the defensives right now? [00:02:15] Gareth Soloway: Yeah, I think that it's, first of all, it's a great question. And for me, you know, rotating into the defensive was something to do a month or two ago when the AI trade and the Saspocalypse was kind of fading from the view, meaning that we had that big sell-off in the software names and then they kind of recovered. I mean, if you looked at CrowdStrike, if you looked at a lot of these other names, they really had these monstrous bounces back while the AI trade was getting hot again. And that was the time to rotate into the defensive names like we talked about, like the Cloroxes of the world, the Nikes. I mean, think about this. Nike gapped down on earnings and literally has almost gone up every day since. Incredible move to the upside on Nike. Not because Nike's like the new amazing company, right? It's still Nike. But at the same time, it got too oversold and there was too much money in the tech sector, in the AI trade, in the software stocks, and money is rotating. And that's really what you see here. Remember that hedge funds, hedge fund managers don't want to take money out of the market and put it in cash because they don't make anything. They're 2 and 20, which is what they get paid, right? 2% fees, 20% of profits. In cash, they're not making anything. So they always want to rotate until things get so scary that they panic and pull it out of the market. But until then, the rotation trade is on. But I will say this, for me, being in the defensives, I'm honestly rotating back into some of the beaten up names. For instance, Oracle pulled back significantly after some good news on Thursday, a big pop there. Some of these other names out there as well are getting to levels where they're actually very intriguing for a bounce. [00:03:51] Speaker 1: So this is what I've been wondering. And I've been going over some of the earnings reports of these big tech companies. I looked at Meta, Tesla, Google reported this week. And there's an underlying trend here is that these companies spent a lot on CapEx, probably more than what investors were initially expecting. And they missed EPS by a wide margin. So Google, for example, the initial consensus EPS was $2.12. The reported was, sorry, $3.01. The reported was $2.12. And so they missed it by nearly 30%. Now companies miss EPS all the time, but not by 30%. And not the entire sector seems to be missing at the same quarter. And it makes me wonder, okay, if it's just one company, maybe we can get back into the company by the dip if it's a strong fundamental play. But if it's the entire sector missing expectations because of a similar story, it makes me wonder if like, it's safe to get back. That's [00:04:49] Gareth Soloway: the first question that I have. So I would say is number one is we're entering a period in the market where volatility is starting to spike. We saw the VIX at one point on Friday in the mid 20s, right? Anytime you're in the mid 20s, it's telling you that fear is starting to be the pervasive emotion that people are trading off of, which means the swings are going to be violent. Having said that, I think if you're a shorter term investor, like you're buying for a bounce, like I have the chart up of Google here. I mean, I've isolated down, there's a gap fill here, you got pivot lows coming up, and you got this beautiful ascending trend line right in this zone. And it's still Google. And yes, is there did their ad revenue business, the search business? Is it suffering because of AI? Absolutely. But it's still Google, Google, and you're getting to levels where valuation is very, very attractive, at least in the short term, assuming you get some sort of stabilization in this trade. Same thing could be said for other names out there too. I mean, ServiceNow got absolutely annihilated. I mean, look at the two day drop on this thing. I mean, this went down just for the last two days, 31%. It's getting into levels where it was trading back in April of 2026, April, May, June, July. You got to look for these technical bounces to come up as the fear takes over. And one of the biggest trades I always make is when everyone else is panicking, I buy, right? The old adage is when there's blood in the streets, that's when you step in. When euphoria and greed are rampant, that's when you got to be selling. And I think that's exactly the play right now. So again, it's not to say I'm out of defensives. I still have some of that exposure. But I'm slowly rotating back into some of these beaten up names that are high quality [00:06:25] Speaker 1: names. I've got to ask you about Intel. Speaking of charts, this is one heck of a chart. Look at Intel. Yeah, this 28.6% plunge on Friday. This is the worst single day for Intel since 1974. I read this is not this is not a meme stock. Okay, people are like, well, I've seen this before. Yeah, you've seen this in Dogecoin. You haven't seen this in the blue chip tech stock. Okay, this is not a penny stock. This is Intel. Talking about Google going down double digits in a single day doesn't happen every every Tuesday or Friday. Anyway, you look at this chart. What's your first reaction? What do [00:06:56] Gareth Soloway: you do? So the first thing is I look at my trend lines, right? And I have this trend line here going back to August of 2025 connecting through the pivot low in March of 30th of 2026, right? And we are getting close. Now, do I think Intel is eventually going lower? Yeah, absolutely. I do. I think that it got hyped up basically not only on the AI trade, but the fact that the US government was backing it, which made everyone assume it would get special treatment. That earnings report that we saw tells us, wait a minute, they might get special treatment, but it's not helping. And therefore, we're seeing the big we saw the massive decline. But will I be a buyer for a bounce 10 20% bounce off of the $60 level? That's what the charts are telling me to do. Absolutely. So again, short term, this is more of a market. Listen, if you're a 20 year horizon, you could probably buy it as well. If you're a shorter, like one to three year horizon, I think Intel will eventually go down. If you're a short term like me, like one month, it's getting close to great bounceable opportunities. So it's really about timeframe. Everyone has to decide what is your timeframe, and then look to the charts to give us that insight into it. And again, I mean, incredible selling in tech alone, but then you look at silver and gold and Bitcoin and everything getting rocked except for a few defensive names like you mentioned. [00:08:11] Speaker 1: Before we continue with the video, let's talk about your personal privacy. October is Cybersecurity Awareness Month. And according to the FTC, Americans reported losing over $3.5 billion to imposter scams just last year. So here are three quick tips from today's sponsor, delete me. First, if an unexpected email looks legit, check the domain it came from. Second, don't answer spam calls. Picking up the phone tells scammers your number is currently active. And third, search your own name online. Your address and phone number are often listed on people search sites for anybody to buy. And that last one is where delete me comes in. They find those listings, get them removed and keep checking. Since June 2024, they've been scanning for me and my latest report shows 293 records reviewed. As you can see, it saved me over 20 hours of searching myself. Scan the QR code on the screen here or go to the link down below. Join delete me.com/DavidLynn and use my promo code DavidLynn for 20% off. Take control of your privacy today. Going into next week. I think everyone's wondering myself included, are we about to see debt cat bounces or is this the buy opportunity of the last two years you think? How do you, how do you [00:09:30] Gareth Soloway: reconcile that? Yes. So then this is, and by the way, I mean, you know, just to look over and this will answer your question is the S and P is still technically bullish. And what I mean by that is we've had these two trend lines that have kind of kept the market in an uptrend up here that one goes back to 2023 February. This one goes back to the bull market high of 2022. And you can see that the market has basically been playing pinball off of these two trend lines. As long as we hold the lower one, to me, that's a buyable level. And the S and P has potential upside to the high end, which is just above 8,000. And what you said about the defensive names, I mean, listen, we see the S and P performing better than the NASDAQ. If you look at the equal weight, the S and P equal weight, which is, you know, every company equal weighted, which gives again, the defense is better waiting. It's actually had an incredible rally off of the lows here. So for me, the S and P remains bullish as long as we hold in this zone, my one caveat, and this is the kind of the determining factor of if I'm gonna believe that the markets can keep climbing next week and we get that bounce. It's all about oil. And I know this sounds crazy, but oil tried to break out on Friday. I mean, this was incredible. Look at this wedge pattern. During the day, we were above this line looking like it was a wedge breakout, which could have said $120 a barrel is on the table again. And by the end of the day, look at the intraday. All of a sudden, in the second half of the day, around one o'clock in the afternoon, sold off all the way down. And we closed back below the level. And the reason why oil is so important here is that oil is now becoming the straw that breaks the camel's back. When this war with Iran and the US started, everyone assumed a week, then it was a month, then it was a quarter. And now it's dragging to the point where the midterms are next week. And there's been no deal. And the market is worrying, wait a minute, if the midterms pass, does then Trump just decide to go military gangbusters on Iran at that point, with no elections for two years? The key here is this. If oil goes up more, it's already breaking the consumer. It's now the AI trade that's starting to break, CapEx starting to look weak. If oil falls, this market will rip, but you've got to get oil to fall to save the economy here. [00:11:44] Speaker 1: Like how much are we talking about that matters? [00:11:47] Gareth Soloway: I think you got to get oil back below $80 a barrel to matter. All right. Now, listen, will it help a little bit if we go back to 85 to 90? Yes. I mean, we're right now we're above 100. Every little bit will help, but sustainability to take the, you know, basically think about it like this. The oil trade has its foot on the throat of the markets via the consumer, via the economy. And we're talking about inflation, right? I mean, diesel prices and being passed through, everything hinges on oil at this point. I didn't think it was that big of a deal early in the year, because I assumed like everyone else that this was going to be a short lived war. It would be over, the straits would be open. But when you have oil at a hundred plus dollars a barrel now since February of this year, it is literally starting to drag down everything. And the markets are beginning to get a little bit concerned. So you got to get oil down here. A deal has to be done or something has to be done to get that oil flowing and back to $70, 70 to $80 a barrel is okay. That can be a huge [00:12:46] Speaker 1: relief and get the market back on track. Well, if oil doesn't come down and the Fed is stuck in a position where they have to address this higher for a longer oil, which makes inflation overall CPI, headline CPI higher. You know, they pretend they care only about core, but really they care about both, I think. And at the same time, the tech sector potentially is seeing a huge slowdown in growth, because like many people pointed out, Elon Musk and Jensen Huang from Nvidia included, debt financing is slowing down. Capital is becoming scarce and these companies rely on debt financing to grow. And so if we start to see more layoffs in the tech sector, while the same time, like you said, oil stays high, what does the [00:13:30] Gareth Soloway: Fed do? Yeah. And that's, that's what's going to be remarkable to watch here. And I think the Fed is probably in a box right now that if oil still around $100 or $90 a barrel in December, they're going to have to hike. But one of the keys, and this goes back to old school Wall Street again, is that what's the cure for high oil prices, high oil prices. And if oil stays high long enough, it's going to come in regardless because it's going to wreck the economy and you're going to destroy demand. And so one way or the other oil's coming in, but there's two scenarios here. If oil stays high, the Fed is going to have to combat inflation. But if they combat inflation by raising rates, it's going to put more pressure on the economy, which then inevitably brings oil down anyway. So for me, at least it's, it's oil will come down. The question is, does it come down because a deal is struck and oil flows again? Or does it come down because the economy gets wrecked? The second one is the one that we as investors have to worry about that kills the 8,000 plus level on the S&P as my bullish case, [00:14:28] Speaker 1: if it wrecks the economy. Okay, I've been getting a lot of questions on my own channel people posting in the comments, what happens to markets after the midterm election, and it looks like according to prediction markets, both Cauchy and Pauli market, we look, it looks like both the House and the Senate may be taken by the Democrats, probably a blue sweep come next week. We'll find out on November 3rd. I just want to share with you this chart. So this is the, this is the Brazil ETF. Okay, Brazil just had its own election. And this is what happened when Bolsonaro was not elected. Okay, went down, it gapped down 20% in a single day. I'm not saying this is going to happen to the US when the Democrats sweep the Congress, but I'm just using this as an example of what, of, of how elections can move markets. Again, not to say that's what's going to happen to the S&P come November 4th, but this is what happened in Brazil. And so to go back to the original question, how do you think midterms are going to impact the markets? What do you think? I actually think it's going to be almost [00:15:30] Gareth Soloway: a non-event and I'll tell you this. So what's interesting about the Brazilian elections is that Calci had a high probability that Bolsonaro was going to win that election. And so the markets had favored and everyone had bought the market on anticipation of that change in the president there. And it didn't happen. It actually went the opposite way as we know. And so it really caught the markets off guard over there in Brazil. Here in the US, we already see that the odds are favoring the Democrats taking over. In addition, it's basically going to be gridlock, right? And the markets historically don't mind gridlock because nothing gets done, which means nothing bad can get done, right? And so I think that's the key. I think the bigger question is once those midterms are over, does the president have any incentive not to just go nuts and go and let's say bomb Iran, you know, maybe take over Karg Island, try to do something militarily that in the near term could spike up oil significantly. And I think, I think that's my bigger concern, not who wins the house, the Senate, that's not going to matter because honestly, I don't think Trump cares deep down whether or not the Republicans hold, he's still the president. And I think the bigger thing is he wants his legacy at the end of the day to be, he didn't keep oil high for very long. So he's either going to make a decision here to make a deal, which I think would have happened before, or there could be military action, further military action in Iran. And remember, even if oil spikes to 120 for a month, if ultimately oil comes back to 50, 60, $70 a barrel within a few months, by the time the next elections come, no one's going to remember that it was 120 for a month. They're not going to care. And I think that's the angle here that the president might think. So I'm more focused on what happens with Iran after the midterms than the midterms themselves. [00:17:13] Speaker 1: I'm thinking maybe there's a scenario where the economy just adjust to $120 a barrel at some point. I mean, once upon a time, oil was 30 and then it was 60 and everyone thought 60 was low and now we're at a hundred. So I don't know. What do you think? [00:17:27] Gareth Soloway: I think, I think it's possible, but I think there's a whole different scenario here where you have 80% of the U S public essentially feeling like they're already in a recession. And if oil is, if the new normal is $120 a barrel, what are diesel prices, which are already basically at all time highs at, and then how does that filter through to inflation? So you have people that already feel like they're in a recession and then you, you push inflation up even more at some point, you know, it just breaks everything. And so I think we're in a different scenario here where the, the economy in the past, I mean, I still remember in 2000, I think it was 2008 when oil went to $146 a barrel. We're not, and by the way, that was just before we saw the financial crisis that we saw, but now you have a whole group of major amounts of Americans that are already in a major pain point on the economy. And it would be [00:18:19] Speaker 1: very hard to tolerate. Going back to the S and P. So you said you're structurally, well, the S and P is showing signs of being structurally bullish right now. Given the tech sell off, the route that we see in the last couple of days to weeks, what are you doing exactly right now? [00:18:34] Gareth Soloway: Yeah. So, so right now, um, with my bias still bullish on the S and P I've been really looking at beaten down names that are looking for a relief rally. So I've been nibbling on a lot of positions here just to give you an idea. Uh, I picked up a little bit of Oracle here. Uh, Oracle had a breakout on Wednesday on news, went up to resistance, got rejected. I picked it up on Friday, as long as it holds this breakout trend line. So I'm basically looking for some of these names that everyone is kind of hating on. Oh, they have a lot of debt. They have this. I'm starting to nibble on them. Like for instance, another one, and this is a smaller company, but like, you know, you look at a stock like Ion Q, which is a super computer one. These are probably companies of the future, regardless of what happens in the near term. And it's into major technical support down here. And so really starting to accumulate some of these names. I haven't really stepped into the microns yet. Micron to me, uh, still has downside to go. Um, Sandisk had a big drop on Friday. I still wouldn't touch this until at least a thousand dollars, but there are other names out there. And even Google, I I've inched into Google down here, starting to accumulate little by little, because again, high quality names, Google's in the AI field, but also has other avenues here. Waymo, et cetera. I think these are the ones that you start to nibble on for a relief rally that I think will come sooner than people think. [00:19:51] Speaker 1: Well, uh, speaking of beaten down names and things that people hate, people really hate Corweave right now. Can we just talk about Corweave? And then I want to get into Micron. Then we'll talk about some other things before we close off. But, uh, yeah, Corweave is another company with a lot of debt, uh, a lot of big, huge CapEx build out and, uh, just highly levered. They're, they're, they're dead after you reach 15 and 16% in bond yields. So anyway, uh, I'll let you talk about this. [00:20:12] Gareth Soloway: Yeah. So Corweave did tag major support. We got a bounce off of it. You can see right here, there was a gap fill and it was also a Fibonacci 886 retrace from this low to this high. So it did get a bounce. Now I'm watching and I'm not in this right now, but I'm watching very closely. Does it hold this $51 level? Um, there are other names out there like CBRS, which is beaten down as a chip play as well, that I'm starting to look interesting. Corweave, I was in for the bounce. I'm out now just because again, this one, like you're saying is a little bit of a trickier scenario because of their debt load. A lot of their debt is secured debt versus unsecured, which makes a little bit of a difference, but either way, this is kind of the poster child for the don't be this company type scenario in this type of market. So for me, I'm staying away from it until I get more clarity. I think the key is in a market where people are scared. Best of breed is number one. Like if you're going to pick up tech, how do you not go with a Google or a, you know, an Oracle, one of the bigger names versus taking up more risk on something like Corweave? [00:21:11] Speaker 1: Because you could probably get 15x return instead of maybe three. I guess that's the only reason you would take on more risk. Yes. And you're right. And then is that [00:21:18] Gareth Soloway: possible on Corweave? Absolutely. But you have to, for me, at least as a more seasoned investor, I learned the hard way that more return when the loss can be even greater too, is not always the best solution if you want to build wealth. [00:21:30] Speaker 1: Micron. Can we just quickly talk about Micron? We've talked about this on my show before. You've actually perfectly called the top around June on my show. People can actually go back and watch that. And then we haven't talked about it in quite a while. What do you think about Micron right now? [00:21:45] Gareth Soloway: I still think it's coming down. I think, again, you have so many factories over the next year to two years coming on online, including new Micron factories. But China's a major player. CXMT. We've talked about that before as well. That, you know, listen, memory is not proprietary. These chips, there was a shortage. People got caught off guard. But now it's been a year plus of this shortage and factories will be coming online. And at some point, I honestly think, and listen, it doesn't mean I won't play it for a long on the way down. But at some point, I think we're going back to $465, this area right back here. And I think that will be within the next [00:22:22] Speaker 1: 12 to 18 months. Wow. Bitcoin. Was it moving down because of tech? Was it moving down because of the Binance hack news? I don't know. I personally think it just follows tech. But the technicals do point to a lot of downside action. Has it hit that? Once it hits that next support of $75,000 and 500, [00:22:44] Gareth Soloway: what happens? Yeah, that's going to be the big question, right? And what's fascinating about this is you could argue that as the tech stocks were collapsing, or Bitcoin was actually holding up relatively well until we got that hack. And then it was almost like it was hanging in there because it was kind of like this digital safe haven asset. And then once that hack, it just broke the back of Bitcoin. And we saw the big drop. Once it broke this 81,000 level, you can see it came down, it tried to get back above, failed, and then we got the hack news. Once we get down to $75,500, that is going to be the next test. Like if you're a bull, you got to see that hold. The reason you have to see that hold is that if we break through this, look at when you have these many green bars, there's no area of support in here until we get down to these levels. And this is around $66,000, $67,000. And so really $75,500 is the level to hold if you're a bull, or you're headed much, much lower, and you'll revisit that $66,000, $67,000 level. So watch that level closely next week. I am a spectator here in that we should get some sort of bounce off $75,500 if it hits early next week, but unless it reclaims $81,000, I have to just sit on the sidelines and let this thing tell me what it's [00:23:58] Speaker 1: going to do. Is this still a tech play right now, Bitcoin? I think to some extent it is, [00:24:05] Gareth Soloway: as much as gold is still and silver is still a tech play. And I say that with kind of some truth, although it seems a little weird that, you know, notice how when tech is crashing, everything's selling off, except for a few defensive names, right? Like we mentioned earlier on. But the key is, is that people early in 2026, when gold and silver were ripping, they bought it because it was like the latest Dogecoin play, like it was the latest tech stock. And, and same thing with Bitcoin's run, right? And so therefore, when, when tech is crashing and people are getting scared, they're selling everything. It's, it's the sell now, ask questions later type event. By the way, we saw this in COVID with gold too, where gold collapsed initially on that March 2020 sell-off, and then came back strong. But again, investors react emotionally, and then they think logically later on, like, oh, was that a good idea? Gold is gold. Bitcoin maybe is Bitcoin. So I think again, it is a tech play panic selling. But again, I actually do still like Bitcoin for the longer term. [00:25:06] Speaker 1: And longer term, you know, what, what, what are the charts tell us for growth? For let's say one [00:25:13] Gareth Soloway: year? On Bitcoin? Yeah, on Bitcoin. Yeah, so I'm optimistic that we've made higher highs. Now we talked about this in our last interview, how you had a high, lower high, lower high. And then from this high, we made a higher high, which should mean this is the bottom around this 58,000 level. So again, if your outlook is a year to two years out, I think Bitcoin's a lot, lot higher. It may come down to 66, 67,000. I'll be a buyer there if it does with a stop underneath this low down here. If it does continue up, my upside target for the next bull move is just easily, I mean, it's as simple as just taking a trend line from the 2017 bull market high through the highs of 2021. I mean, if this line has literally depicted every bull market high, then who am I to say differently? And we're looking at upside to, you know, let's say, in January of 2028, about a year out, this would be 160,000 ish on Bitcoin. [00:26:09] Speaker 1: Okay, gold, quickly on gold, people have asked me as well, why has gold fallen when tech stocks and other things fall? And why is gold not a hedge in that sense? Why doesn't it go up? How do you answer [00:26:23] Gareth Soloway: that? So the answer is, is that people stopped buying gold as a hedge, and that's why it's not a hedge right now until you wipe out those buyers, right? And so what you had was this kind of, you know, for, I mean, we can go back on this chart for a long, long time. I mean, it was defensive hedge, defensive hedge, didn't really do much. And then all of a sudden, the de-dollarization narratives, the inflation stuff kicked in. And especially in this move from August of 2025, where gold was 3300, all the way up to 5600. This is where people started to buy in, not because of hey, I want to be careful, I want to have some security in gold, but because all I can make a crap load of money on gold. So let me just jump in and push a bunch of money in on the chips right here on the on the table with gold. And that's why now the fear factor is driving it back down because you have all of these buyers from this period, they're slowly exiting the trade in fear more and more. And you can see right here, look at this trend line, we broke it this again. And again, if we go back to past interviews, we talked about the $3,500 level on gold. It's still I mean, this is looking more and more likely that that's where we are headed. Now, like Bitcoin, I'm a huge bull on gold longer term, how can you not be when you see the US deficit and debt and money supply global money supply growing 7% per year. So again, these type of things alternate currencies are going to ultimately play out well. But again, I would not be surprised to see 3500 on gold in the next few weeks. [00:27:50] Speaker 1: Even you mentioned to me offline, you bought a bunch of physical silver right now at $50 an ounce. [00:27:57] Gareth Soloway: What was your rationale there? Yeah, so this is a level that on silver, I had said when we were north of 100, I said, and you know, I got a lot of flack for that saying that, hey, it's going to go back to $50 an ounce. But I said, listen, I will not buy physical and physical. By the way, when I buy physical, it's long term, right? I'm not looking to trade because it's too hard to trade in. And when you sell it back, you get a lower price, etc. So you know, for long term investing, I like physical metals for swing trading. I play GLD for gold, SLV for silver, right? But the point being is we finally pierced silver a level on at $50, where a lot of stops were. So you wiped out a lot of those those people that had kind of gotten in for the wrong reasons, in my opinion. And then we actually came back and look at this, this is a remarkable chart. And this is something that again, a lot of people said, oh, but you know, things are so different from 1980 and 2011. But look at this, your high from 1980. Here's your high from 2011, drag it across. And where did we get to? Look at this. So we came, we have now retraced to what was former resistance, now becoming support. And by the way, I'm not necessarily smart enough to know if this is the low on silver. But for me, this was a starting point where I bought some physical on Friday, just below $50 thing, I got in about my price was locked in around, you know, 4930, give or take. But that to me was a starting point of my longer term investing on silver again. [00:29:24] Speaker 1: Okay, and then finally, on yields, it was interesting how bonds were catching a bid in the last two days as risk assets were selling off. And so it really looks like for the last couple of weeks, 5.2, 5.3 was the peak on the 10 year, what do you think? [00:29:41] Gareth Soloway: Yeah, I think I think at this point, that's the case. And I'm expecting yields to go lower from here. A lot of people think that should be bullish for the markets. I think the best thing that could happen right now is yields go sideways, maybe even slightly up like not a lot of volatility. The reason I say sideways is because the market is now worried about interest rates going up too high and our debt, right, and the debt issues of the market, but the US debt as well and the global debt. And then also when yields collapse, what is it saying? It's saying, oh my goodness, we're headed into a recession, which is also bad for the stock market. So really the best case scenario, it's almost like, you know, what do you want the Fed to do? You want them to not be too hawkish, but not be too, too dovish right in the middle gives the market the confidence that, okay, nothing's going to change. We're okay here. And that's what I think yields need to do if the markets are going to continue up, which again, I think if oil came in, you would see a stabilization in future economic projections of a recession. So really sideways chop in yields would be the best case for this market. Unfortunately, I think that would be a short-term solution maybe to get S&P to 8,000. And then I think we're headed lower because I think the economy is already [00:30:51] Speaker 1: weakening significantly in the underbelly. Okay, great, great summary. Thank you so much for your analysis today on Halloween. Are you dressing up tonight, Gareth? I am, I am, but very simple. The kids [00:31:02] Gareth Soloway: are doing much more. I'm getting like some little weird thing on my head, you know, that looks like [00:31:06] Speaker 1: I've been murdered, basically. That's about it. I was debating between a Grim Reaper or an IRS agent. I didn't want to offend anybody. Both are pretty scary. Yeah, exactly. All right, stay safe tonight. Have a lot of fun. Thank you so much for your analysis. And thank you for watching, guys. Take care. Thank you. Follow Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing. I'll put the links down below. Thanks for watching. Please do like, subscribe.