High gas prices in Nevada help make governor's race more competitive for Dems

[0:00] MSNOW reporter David Noriega joins me from Reno, Nevada. Mark Leibovich is a staff writer for The [0:05] Atlantic and an MSNOW political contributor, Mark McKinnon, a former advisor to George W. Bush and [0:10] John McCain and creator of The Circus. So, David, that was you speaking to the woman we just heard [0:15] from. Just how big of an impact is that affordability issue having in the Nevada governor's [0:22] race? Huge, Chris. I mean, it is the issue in the race. The Democratic contender very much knows [0:29] that. And the incumbent governor, Joe Lombardo, the Republican, knows it as well. Let me tell you a [0:33] little bit more about Mary, the person you heard from, because her story is very illustrative. So [0:37] she has two young children. She just had her second child three months ago. Her husband [0:42] is a union carpenter. So that's a skilled trade. It's a job that brings in a good salary in a part [0:49] of the country where there's plenty of work in the construction industry. And yet, in spite of that, [0:54] they have not been able to find, they wanted to buy a house for their growing family, but they found [0:58] that they were completely priced out of the market. They've been living with her in-laws, [1:01] his parents, for six months now, looking for a place and are realizing that they have to settle [1:05] for a rental. And even that, for them, is proving to be quite the stretch. And again, [1:09] this is not a family that fell on hard times because someone lost a job or medical bills or [1:13] anything like that. This is a stable family with a decent income that they believe should not have [1:19] them in this situation. So they feel this is structural. They feel it's unjust. And frankly, [1:23] they blame both parties. You know, they're disappointed. Both of them voted for Trump. They're [1:28] disappointed in his performance. But that does not, far from it, actually automatically translate [1:33] to a vote for Democrats, including in the governor's race. I sat down yesterday also with [1:38] the Democratic candidate, Aaron Ford. He's currently the attorney general of Nevada. And I put this [1:43] question to him. I said, look, what I hear from voters is that what they want is not words but [1:47] action. So if you're running on affordability, what actually can you do in the short term that will [1:52] make an impact on people's monthly finances? Listen to what he said. [1:56] I am committed to fulfilling the pledges that we've made in our affordable Nevada plan. I've given [2:03] you a few examples. Once we guarantee school lunches to students, that's $1,000 back in the [2:09] pockets of parents that they can spend elsewhere, right? Once we cap the amount of security deposit [2:14] that they can charge, they're not going to get in charge $6,000 for a $2,000 a month rental [2:21] facility. That's money that's back in their pockets. Once we cap, for example, drug prices [2:26] to the Medicare negotiated price for everybody, which is also part of my platform, that's money [2:30] back in their pockets. [2:32] Now, Chris, during the course of my interview with Ford, he repeatedly, this is what his [2:39] campaign is doing in general, tried to tie Governor Lombardo as much as possible to Trump. He repeatedly [2:45] referred to the economy as the Trump Lombardo economy. That is a tactic that many Democrats in [2:50] many races across the country are adopting. When I asked Mary, that voter, though, if she'd [2:55] heard of Aaron Ford or how much she knew about the governor's race, she hadn't heard of Ford. [2:59] She said she wanted to vote in the race, but was undecided. So she is really exactly the kind of [3:03] voter that both of these candidates should be reaching out to. And at this point, the race is [3:08] neck and neck. It's unclear which of these candidates will prevail with voters like this. But it is clear, [3:15] though, I think, that the economic situation is tilting the playing field in favor of the Democrat [3:21] and against the incumbent, Chris. [3:23] Well, Mark Leibovic, that great reporting really, I think, points a finger at what a lot of the [3:29] conversations I'm having with both sides focus on. Is it clear whether or not just because people are [3:35] unhappy with the economy that they're going to vote for a Democrat for Mary Garcia? And I think a lot [3:40] of other people who don't spend every day, unfortunately for us, watching cable news [3:45] or doing a deep dive yet on who they might vote for. There is an opening. Does the opening [3:52] necessarily favor Democrats? And if so, by how much? Well, it seems to favor Democrats if you believe [3:59] polls, if you believe special elections, off-year elections and so forth. But I do think Democrats [4:03] Democrats make a big mistake if they're sort of looking at these numbers and sort of tying their [4:10] own aspirations for this November as an excuse to pat themselves on the back. I mean, this is not the [4:15] case here. I mean, there is not a groundswell of love for the Democratic Party across the country by [4:20] any means. You know, the numbers aren't appreciably bigger than they were a year ago. I do think the [4:27] big risk for Republicans here is people will cast protest votes for the Democrat on the ballot, [4:34] or I think more likely people like Mary will stay home. I mean, it sounds like from the initial [4:40] interview that she is not an automatic voter to begin with, either side. And it doesn't sound like [4:44] she's terribly motivated at this point to vote for Ford. So, I mean, I think that's probably something [4:51] that will accrue badly to Republicans, but obviously Democrats would prefer to get the votes also. [4:56] Mark McKinnon, let me pick up where the other mark left off. As Trump's approval rating continues to [5:02] slide, prominent Democrats are expressing an awful lot of optimism. And this was just last night on [5:09] this network. When you are this deep into your second year, if your reflex is to still be trying [5:18] to blame the previous administration, it really shows that you are out of ideas, out of solutions, [5:24] and unwilling to take ownership of your own choices like this Iran war that has cost so much already [5:32] in this country and beyond. He's coming to Congress for a billion dollars for this awful ballroom. [5:38] People want childcare. They don't want chandeliers. But do you agree, Mark McKinnon, [5:45] that there is a risk for Democrats in depending too much on anti-Trump sentiment? [5:51] Certainly. The only thing that's as remarkable is how bad the Trump numbers and Republican numbers [5:59] are, is how bad the Democratic numbers are. People don't like either party. But Mark made a great [6:05] point, which is that the voter that you had on is highly likely to just stay home. Midterm elections, [6:12] ultimately, those parties and candidates who win, it's generally because it's about enthusiasm. [6:19] Most voters don't vote in off-term elections. But those who do are enthusiastic. So it's hard to [6:26] imagine Republican voters who are enthusiastic about the environment right now. All Republican [6:31] candidates do, they're on defense the whole time about particularly affordability and gas prices. [6:38] And so the only thing I found refreshing and surprising about Governor Lombardo's response to all [6:44] that is that for once he's not blaming Joe Biden, he's blaming Gavin Newsom in California. So [6:50] all they can do is try and shift the blame. They can't take responsibility for it because that's a death [6:56] knell. Mark, I was reading your latest column when you argue that, well, not story, that the party, [7:05] Democrats, could use a cold shower before the midterms, which is kind of to the point of what you [7:10] were talking about before. But what specifically do you think would be a warning sign as you watch [7:17] this deeply as you follow us into the midterms? Well, I mean, I think partly part of it is just [7:24] overconfidence. I mean, I think the Democrats have in the not so long ago past been extremely [7:31] disappointed by election night. I mean, there was feeling of momentum going into 2024. There certainly [7:36] was in previous elections to that, 2016. Now, obviously, this is not a presidential election. [7:41] Donald Trump is not on the ballot. So that's different. And Democrats have done really well [7:45] in midterms the last few cycles. But I do think that the Democrats, if they think that their work [7:51] is done just by looking at the positive indicators that are out there, that are out there, is wrong. [7:56] Because, look, they've dug themselves a major hole in 2024. Donald Trump is still in power. [8:03] The Republican Party is still in power. And he is an extremely powerful president right [8:08] now. Whether he sees the weakness that we talk about or not, he's going to try to do a lot of [8:15] things. And we've learned over and over and over again that Donald Trump is going to do what he [8:19] wants to do unless he has stopped. So I do think that Democrats just need to stay vigilant. [8:24] Well, Mark McKinnon, I mentioned Democrats are also hoping to flip the governor's mansion in Ohio. [8:29] Trump won handily in 2024 by 12, 13 points. But Sharon Brown only lost his race by about three. [8:37] So could Vivek Ramaswamy and his ties to the Trump administration's Doge program [8:43] serve as a perfect foil in that race? [8:47] Absolutely. I mean, Chris, how many segments have you done over the last couple of months [8:51] in these primaries where the numbers have flipped from, you know, a plus 10, a plus 20 Trump district [8:58] to something that's even or behind? So, I mean, that's a very consistent thing. The Democrats are [9:04] running way ahead of their numbers from 2024. And Republicans are running way behind. So I don't [9:10] think, you know, Mark talked about Democrats taking things for granted. Republicans really can't take [9:15] things for granted. And I think that's the tendency of those people who are in very big Trump plus [9:21] districts that won comfortably before. But we're just seeing across the board, those numbers are [9:26] raced overnight. So I think the people that really have to be careful about not taking things for [9:31] granted are Republicans. But there's an old adage that we used to have in running campaigns. And [9:36] that was, you know, just always run like you're running 10 points behind.