About this transcript: This is a full AI-generated transcript of Goldman and BAC Sink Into Bear Market Territory on CPI Day — Stock Market Live from TraderTV Live, published October 15, 2026. The transcript contains 37,551 words with timestamps and was generated using Whisper AI.
"Thank you. Thank you. There are three letters in everyone's minds today. CPI, the Consumer Price Index, to be released at 8.30 a.m., exactly half an hour from now. So don't go anywhere because not only will we give you the numbers live, we'll also prepare you for the numbers and we'll react here..."
[00:00:00] Speaker ?: Thank you.
[00:00:30] Speaker 1: Thank you. There are three letters in everyone's minds today. CPI, the Consumer Price Index, to be released at 8.30 a.m., exactly half an hour from now. So don't go anywhere because not only will we give you the numbers live, we'll also prepare you for the numbers and we'll react here once we see what the market does. In the meantime, though, ahead of the CPI print, nice gap up here for the SPY. Sometimes we'll see pretty stagnant or flat markets ahead of these numbers. Definitely not the case today. We'll take a look at the NASDAQ as well. NASDAQ actually relatively flat here. We tried to push higher, but we failed to do so. USO is going to be unfocused, unfortunately, as you can see with the headline to the left side of the screen. There are some more, as Sharif reported, belligerencies here in the Middle East and Iran apparently considering attacking shipping ahead of the US midterms. We know the US doesn't want to strike Iran for the midterm, so that's going to be a bit of a dicey look here. And here's USO gapping to the upside. Now, we know we mentioned CPI at 8.30 a.m. That's going to be core and non-core. At 10 a.m., we get the start of Anthropics Investor Day, so that could be interesting for AI-related headlines. At 1.30 p.m., you get Fed's bargain. And at 2 p.m., you get the very rarely market moving or at all reactionary page book. So a couple of different things to keep an eye on here today. But one of the things to keep an eye on is bank earnings, because BAC here sharply to the downside. You also had MS with those Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reports that major bank earnings season has officially come to a close. We'll definitely talk more about these banks a little bit down the line. You've also got more concerns here about CoreWeave and its financing and how much money they're trying to get here, so that's going to be back in focus here, too. CRWV down, I'm seeing like almost 4% this morning, so certainly not a good look. You've got NVIDIA in the U.K. and a whole bunch of other earnings, including one of Sharif's favourites, ASML. There's a lot to look at today, Sharif.
[00:02:47] Speaker 2: Yeah, ASML reporting a lot of demand going into the 2030s, but flat to start the morning fact down about half a percent here in North American markets. Bank of America, as Adaira mentioned, with their earnings report and obviously that big fine, $1.2 billion Treasury penalty hits their profitability there. We've got Morgan Stanley beating investment banking, but trading does remain in focus. BlackRock, my goodness, $15.5 trillion AUM that they've got in their books now, so obviously the world's largest hoarder of money. USO, we've got more worries in the Middle East as the Houthis and the Saudis continue to basically elevate the tensions there. We'll have to see if anything kinetic happens today. Dell with a downgrade from Barclays. Apple with some reactions here after their smart home launches. Some mixed reviews. I have comments on this one, but maybe we'll talk about it on the midday show. CoreWeave looking to pick up an insurance or targeting an insurance company to pick up new capital. So scarce is the capital now for the AI built out. And GameStop, Ryan Cohen, buying more, Adaira, as we hit local area highs here, $22.8 million more he picked up.
[00:04:04] Speaker 1: And with CoreWeave, you might unfortunately also have the curse of Jim Cramer because I was seeing comments actually where he was like, if you're going to get into one of these NeoClouds, the one that you have to get into is CoreWeave. I mean, it's got to be a little bit uncanny at this point, the way that obviously not intentional. His timing is just not ideal here for some of these stocks. Well, good morning to the guys. I'll start with you this morning, Joe. We do have a lot of, I think, kind of maybe underrated, but certainly prominent AI headlines this morning from CoreWeave to NVIDIA to ASML. So, I mean, which, if you had to pick one semiconductor ticker, and I'm going to ask all of the guys those questions so you guys can prepare, which semiconductor ticker are you going with for today? And that can be a long or a short. You can take this question however you want to take it.
[00:04:48] Speaker 3: Great question. I think that's a no-brainer. And I often say that now. NVDA, yeah. I mean, not only is it your boy's largest holding, it's probably one of the most traded underlying assets from me personally, aside from the NASDAQ, the T-triple-Qs. So, I'm just going to keep my eye on NVDA. I mean, positive tailwinds, I feel like, come out of this name multiple times a week. And I often go on about the fact that, hey, the float is large. Don't be surprised when it goes on these seven to eight-day red streaks. But yesterday, I found a nice bounce after finishing a five-day red streak. So, not too bad of a look there for NVDA. And I said, first thing, I said, I can't wait till 8.30 because it's going to add some volatility into the market. And it's definitely going to be reflected in this name that I've been talking about.
[00:05:39] Speaker 1: Yeah, what about you here, Sean? What's your pick if you had to pick one of these semiconductor names? And again, you can trade in any direction.
[00:05:45] Speaker 4: First of all, I mean, what happened? We knew Joe was going to go with NVDA over there. I mean, you know.
[00:05:52] Speaker 1: He does go up on his blotter.
[00:05:53] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, they got a big dividend, of course, there. It makes Joe happy. And we joke about the dividend, of course. Joe and I went back and forth about that. That was hilarious that day. No, I'm going to go with Corwee just because of what you had mentioned there. I mean, I don't think we want to tap this new market for debt over here. It's not great. They need to raise some more money for their infrastructure build out. I don't like that story. It's the only thing I have Google written down as a long over here. I have Corwee written down as a short, and then we'll wait for CPI and figure out the rest of it. But yeah, I don't like the story. Down 4%, it's like the biggest name that's actually moving around here this morning. ASML's not doing too much. If we leave the bank names alone, I think you've got to look at Corwee breaking back down below through this $80 mark. You know, the next area to bounce is going to be somewhere around $70, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see that today. So, Adair, for me, it's Corwee, Financial Times, dropping another bomb on another company here with Corwee.
[00:06:47] Speaker 1: So you've got NVIDIA, you have Corwee. What's your pick, Neil?
[00:06:51] Speaker 5: Corwee's the chalk one because it's the one that's actually moving.
[00:06:54] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[00:06:54] Speaker 5: Right? So, like, that's the one with the story. It's the one on the watch list, and I think it's sort of obvious. But I'll go with one that there's at least a technical breakdown happening, and there's a lot of things that have looked bearish recently. But this was on – SMCI was on a very good and steady rally for a couple of months. And in the last few days here, specifically, this loss of 50 period, not much was super strong yesterday, but when it did try to bounce, it failed right in that 50 period. It had, like – it had just a brick wall at 39.5, which was exactly the 50 period on the SMA on the dailies. So I think it's got a good technical level for the short. But, yeah, Corwee's the one moving. Like, that's the chalk play out there for sure and not looking too good at all. I did see Bloom Energy on the move, by the way. I wasn't able to cash this for it, but that's one maybe worth keeping an eye on because the market's been – I don't know – not that exciting this morning if you're looking for longs that aren't Greenland. But Bloom just got back to Green with a $7 move to the upside here. So, yeah, it looks like this one might be in play today.
[00:08:01] Speaker 1: Yeah, I could not find anything on Bloom, but they're reporting earnings on October 22nd, which, crazy enough, that's going to be a week from tomorrow. Time flies. I mean, Sharif, I'll ask you the same question. You don't really intraday trade these larger caps. But if you had to kind of pick one of these names on watch today, even just in the shorter term, if you had to trade it, which would you pick in that semiconductor?
[00:08:21] Speaker 2: So I'm going to say Micron. Oh, okay. Because Elon, I don't know if you noticed this yesterday on X. I didn't. It was a little bit later in the day. He came out and he praised Micron, essentially, for not price gouging everybody, like – and he specifically called out Samsung and SK Hinex. He said – he praised them specifically. He said, you know, they've been reasonable. This is a quote regarding future memory prices compared to their competitors. I wonder if they have a place at TeraFab now that he's kind of name-dropped them there and kind of isolated from some of their competitors. I want to see if the market even reacts, cares about what Elon has to say about Micron because it may not. It may not. It's down 1%. It's well off the highs. And to be quite honest with you, like, I was kind of looking at their gross margins. It's 87% gross margins. So it's like, what are the other ones charging? Like, 90-something? Like, because, I mean, the price is what Elon is highlighting here as what they're doing right. So I don't know if, like, the others are charging over 100%. I have no idea. But, yeah, Micron is my pick today.
[00:09:25] Speaker 1: And their margins have actually grown, like, over the last couple quarters, too. So it's interesting. That makes you really wonder. And honestly, Sharif, to go to the TeraFab thing quickly, I think they probably have a better shot at being in TeraFab than SMCI does. And we know SMCI really wants us to think that they could be involved in TeraFab. But, yeah, honestly, Micron. Let's not forget.
[00:09:41] Speaker 2: They're American.
[00:09:42] Speaker 1: They are.
[00:09:43] Speaker 2: Right? So there could be that play to it as well. SK Hynek, Samsung, clearly not. Right? Yeah.
[00:09:48] Speaker 1: And you could totally see Elon playing that way as well. It would make sense. Well, you know, what's also going to make sense here is with just 22 minutes to go until the print, talking about some CPI, Sharif. Because the Consumer Price Index does come out. We'll get the core print. We'll get the non-core print. We're actually expecting a little bit of heating up, unfortunately, for lack of a better term. Heating up, I guess, would be the word for some of these prints.
[00:10:08] Speaker 2: Yeah, sadly. It looks like it's going to be a tough one here. Look, there's going to be a big variance, Joey and I, you and I talking about this as well, between the headline number and the core number. So what we're expecting, at least from what I'm seeing here, 3.6 to 3.7 for the headline number. And we're looking for 2.4 to 2.5 for the core. So you have a spread here of almost 1.2 to 1.3. I mean, I personally haven't seen it this spready in a really long time or at all. We're also looking here for the masking and softening core demand. So they're saying energy is so elevated and the headline number is so high that we're actually going to mask the broader consumer demand destruction for other products. And we can see that with the core, right? Core is close to that 2% target. Not there yet, but closer. Also, widening divergence here between kind of the household expectations that we get from the Michigan consumer sentiment, which is like I think the last print there was expectations of 4.6%. And what we're actually getting from Wall Street of core 2.4. So the street feels one way and Wall Street feels another way or Main Street and Wall Street kind of diverging in their views. And then we're also probably going to see elevated airline pressure because jet fuel has gone up so much. So we're probably going to see some pressure there. And then real wage compression. So average hourly wages expected to slow down to 3% year over year. I don't have the comp, but it says slow. So obviously it was higher this time last year, 3%. We also have the jobs revisions, the numbers down. We talked about July and August being negative 60,000 combined, those two being revised down. So that kind of puts the Fed again in this dichotomy. Yes, we still have a high headline number, core not, jobs, right? So I think they've got their work cut out for them here.
[00:11:57] Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I'm going to start here with Sean. It's a bit tough because I feel like we have this conversation kind of before every number, but we always get new people. So, Sean, what are you going to be looking here for when we get that 830 print in terms of just overall the market and how will it impact perhaps your plans for the trading day?
[00:12:13] Speaker 4: I think the real trade just belongs to these bonds. I mean, the NASDAQ and the market tends to go one way and then reverse almost completely. You talk about the last couple of numbers. That's what's been happening. You know, the market reacts pretty hot to it or cool and then, you know, opposite once 930 hits or as it fades into the market open. So I really want to see what the 10-year does here, you know, in the first 10 or 15 minutes of the number. So let's look back at like at 845 and figure this out because, you know, you're kind of stuck in a little bit of a range here. I'd like to see us break back down. You know, the last time we were below 520 here was back in late September, really. So, you know, we've been above this 5.2 for a little bit of too long of a time for me, and we did bounce off 535. So if we could start to come back in a little bit here on the 10-year, watching the TLT also, another good indication there. Something to look for is the bond market here today as we watch out for that. And I agree with Sharif, the month-over-month number is what we're going to be looking for, right? So that's going to give sort of the Fed the reason and the juice to make the decision in, what is it now, two weeks now? The Fed is coming in with their next decision. So this is a big print, man. As Joe had mentioned earlier, this is something that we're waiting for. It should move the market today. Excited for it. We'll see what this percentage point moves with the interest rates potentially getting raised in October.
[00:13:35] Speaker 3: I was reading this piece the other day, and apparently max pain on the 10-year for the equities market is going to be 6%.
[00:13:43] Speaker 4: Six. Well, if we get to there. I mean, right now you're 5'2".
[00:13:45] Speaker 3: That's what we're talking about when it comes to max pain.
[00:13:47] Speaker 4: But what does that do to the market, this max pain? I mean, a lot of people thought 5% was... We're down 20%. Well, that's exactly it.
[00:13:54] Speaker 3: Yeah. Everyone thought 5%. Sorry, what did you say, Sean?
[00:13:56] Speaker 4: No, I'm saying that the move that this has even had, like we were at in September, at September the 1st, we were at 4.7. Yeah. So we've already moved, you know, almost up there, 0.7% up higher. And the market is pretty much at all-time high.
[00:14:13] Speaker 5: But this is the follow-through print here. Like, you've had the breakout of the 10-year, but it hasn't exploded off of this level. I think that's where you get, if we get to 6%, then you're talking about after the midterms, things still looking bad at that point. And, you know, the Fed's got another wrinkle to look at. I think the print does move the market today. But we have to, like, the Fed's got their other eye on the labor market, like Sharif said. So they got the push and the pull at this particular point. And we still have to wait for some revisions on the numbers that we had in the labor market, like the ADP, because we know there will be revisions. It was super weak, so it'll be interesting to see if that gets backed off a little bit. If those numbers hold true, and then you end up having that weak of a labor market, their hands are tied. Absolutely tied if labor market's going to be. Because how are you going to raise under that point? Like, you can, this 80%, if that ADP is true, is going to be a tough one for them to raise.
[00:15:08] Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to talk here about the Fed in just a little bit, because we're seeing increasing, I think, divergence in terms of who thinks what. And then we're seeing the people who think kind of on either side of the spectrum, so hold versus raise, they're getting a little bit more extreme and a bit more clear about how they feel. So that whole family feud term that Kevin Warsh, Fed chair, keeps throwing around, I think we're really going to see that at the next meeting. Before we talk a little bit of oil, Joe, I mean, you talked about the max pain, but as we had Sharif and Neil say, we thought that 5% was max pain, and it wasn't. So how much more can this market really stand? Because we could, I think, easily see the 10-year at 6% and just keep climbing at the rate we're going.
[00:15:47] Speaker 3: From an equity standpoint, oh, eventually it just wouldn't be worth it, right? Like, you'll just see more of the money funnel into the 10-year, and that has to come from somewhere. So eventually you'll see an outflow within the equity markets, regardless of how strong and how great the earnings reports are. It's just not worth it at the end of the day. And then you also have to think about downside risk as well, too, when it comes to the equity markets. So I'm surprised that the NASDAQ has held up as well as it has with the bond market doing what it's doing. I mean, we talk about market breadth and how weak it actually is, and you do a top-down approach, and you start with some of these tech names that are performing really well. But then as you slowly start to creep a little bit lower, you head into the staples and the banks and so on and so forth. There's actually weakness there, and this might be a little bit of a dramatic way of putting it, but it's almost like a cancer. It spreads, right? And then if it's the look that you give me, and then it goes down. And then, unfortunately, the things that are strong are going to fall into weakness as well, too. So if the 10-year hits 6%, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised, even regardless of what the balance sheets look like in some of these tech names, that you start to see them sell off as well, too.
[00:17:00] Speaker 1: I definitely don't disagree that it's a bit of a dramatic way of putting it, but I see what you mean. And something else here is going to be in focus for inflation, for the Fed, which we're going to talk about in a bit, and for this 10-year is going to be USO. Because we know we were hearing at one point, oh, the US, and President Trump cited himself in Truth Social less than a week ago, the US is not going to touch Iran until after the midterms. Some reports are coming out suggesting that that actually might not be the case. And meanwhile, Iran at the same time trying to pressure the US ahead of November 3rd.
[00:17:29] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's getting a little bit more dicey. Now, I think the strikes probably have a lot to do with when that third carrier group arrives. I think that he, well, the military planners, anyway, have something in plan or in store for that. I think maybe he's kind of holding off, waiting for that carrier group to arrive, and maybe it just kind of happens to overlap with when the elections take place. What day is the election, by the way?
[00:17:53] Speaker 1: November 3rd.
[00:17:53] Speaker 2: 3rd, thank you. So we'll see. We'll see exactly kind of how that goes. But let's talk about the asymmetric recovery now. So we're getting a lot of oil coming out of the Middle East. It's, I don't want to say it's recovered to pre-war levels, but it's pretty close. We have, we increased by 2.5 million barrels per day in September to restore upstream flows. But that's where kind of the good story ends, because we're seeing crude flowing, but we're not seeing the distillates flowing. Specifically, we're talking jet fuel, we're talking diesel. They call this the crack spread, and I don't know why they call it the crack spread. I'll look into it. But they keep calling it that in all the articles I read about this issue. So that is a problem there. It's great to have oil. It's nice to have the supply. But if we're not refining it to the products that we need, what good is it? So that's point number one. Point number two, global gas oil exports dropped about 700,000 barrels per day year over year. And that makes a big difference, because in the northern hemisphere, some states, some areas use it for warming. So this is not a good time to have a shortage of that gas oil. Last but not least, can you believe they're talking about going around the Cape of Good Hope? Because they don't want to go around into the areas where the Houthis are? Like, I mean, it's quite ridiculous. So the Saudi ships don't want to go south in the Red Sea through Bebel Mende because of the Houthis. So they're going through the Suez Canal, going through Egypt, going through the Mediterranean, passing the Strait of Gibraltar between Morocco and Spain, and then going south on the west side of Africa, and then going to Asia. I mean, you know what I mean? Not only the price, but the time. So there's all these things that they're trying to do now to alleviate some of the supply pressures, but it's just logistically a nightmare.
[00:19:47] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, also just really quickly on the crack spread thing, I've also heard that term before. I have no idea where it comes from, so we'll have to look into that. We'll have to look into it, yeah. An interesting one, but I'll start with you here, Neil. I mean, yesterday we heard, first it was reported during the midday, then it was reported again around 3 p.m., or maybe even closer to 3.50. I heard it reported at least three times, this whole, you know, President Trump is talking to Netanyahu, and they could be striking Iran, you know, before the midterms, but the market didn't really react. And this would be like a pretty big change in pace. I mean, what do you think it's going to take for some kind of reaction here in oil, not to the headlines? Do you think the headline sensitivity has kind of calmed down after last week? I mean, what are your thoughts on that? Because that was really interesting. I was expecting a reaction, especially as it kept getting reported.
[00:20:32] Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I think when you go from saying that you, A, we're not going to do anything until after the midterms, to we're going to think about striking before, you probably would, and I hate to say this, you probably would have to see, you know, actual physical evidence of them striking. I think that's, the talk at some point, the more you have these random headlines and tit for tat and sort of going back and forth yo-yo, you know, the market probably just doesn't take it as seriously. Like, right now, you know, we just had a backtrack of, well, you know, we're sanctioning Russia to, we're allowing them to ship small amounts, if they can get it, of diesel to help us. Well, I mean, those amounts of diesel are doing nothing to abate. I mean, Goldman came out and said it's a book of, what, a week and a half? That's if Russia could fulfill what they said they wanted to give to the U.S., a week and a half worth of supply, so it's not really putting a dent into things. It just feels like there hasn't been anything big enough to abate this little energy crunch. And you can say that things are flowing, but ultimately, prices are still remaining high, for the reasons that the Shreve mentioned. But also, it's a diesel story. And you have to remember, this is the type of thing that can bleed and is bleeding into the everyday economy. That puts a lot of pressure on the consumer. Certainly, you start thinking about, okay, well, what's going to happen to growth? What is the effect? How does that affect the labor market down the line? And it's always the labor market that gets affected last. That's why we're starting to think about that, because you keep having these elevated diesel prices, it will eventually, the longer it stays, it will eventually trickle down into the labor market. And once you see that effect start to happen, then you're in an even bigger bind with the Fed. So, pressure on some retail stocks potentially if this continues. But as far as the headlines on oil, there probably have to be strikes for it to move us intraday.
[00:22:34] Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I guess I'll go here to you, Sean. I'll ask you sort of the inverse of this question. I mean, we're, at this point, we could be getting strikes probably, who knows, even on November 4th, because President Trump's really teasing, you know, after the election, he wants oil prices down. He wants to do whatever he can to get there. So, do you think this will trade kind of comes back here on Wednesday, the day after the election? Are you going to be watching the market with that in mind? Or do you think too much speculation, see what happens?
[00:22:59] Speaker 4: No, I just think it's like Trump is openly treating the oil and this idea as an election variable. It's like, so what? The calendar turns one day over and then all of a sudden now you have a strategy? Like, that to me, he needs to say something now. What are they going to do on November 4th? You know, what is the strategy moving forward? Like, this whole thing, like, oh, we got to wait, we got to get elected, and when we do, then we'll solve everything. It's like, come on. Like, we're looking for those little tidbits. And until we get them, I mean, now USO, I mean, right here on the daily chart, it's now right back to a five or six day winning streak, and people aren't believing that oil is coming back down in. So, until the president and his administration actually comes up with a solution here, I don't really think this election variable is something that we need to really consider. I mean, I think November 3rd is going to come and go, and we see where it lies after that. And I think oil actually probably spikes on November the 4th, because people will be like, okay, now what, you know? And if nothing's happening, remember, this is controlled by traders, right? You talked about the crack spread there. I mean, we got to figure out how much it's going to cost us. We're going to start to heat our homes. We got to start to, you know, look at some of these winter, generally speaking, you know, this is when seasonality starts to kick in, right? So, you need to be careful of oil for that reason as well. And then, possibly, calling the president's bluff on November 4th, because I don't even know what game we're playing anymore. Are we playing poker? Are we playing gin? What are we even playing over here? Like, so, I wish the president let us know some of the rules of engagement here, so that we can assess where oil is going. But for me, I think seasonality takes its name higher, and stay in the refiners.
[00:24:38] Speaker 1: Maybe they're playing Monopoly, because we know, we've talked about Gaza, we've talked about Cuba. I mean, all jokes aside, if we're going to use an analogy, perhaps. But before we go to Joe and these options, I do want to talk. We actually have headlines coming out of, unfortunately, the Middle East here, so this is pretty timely. Maritime security sources reporting that a dry bulk ship is sinking after being hit by a projectile close to the Strait of Hormuz. So, that was one incident. Looks like there was another incident here as well. Container ships sinking near the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by a projectile. So, both the container ship, unfortunately, and a dry bulk ship being hit in the Strait. Let's go straight over to Joe with a look at the options.
[00:25:15] Speaker 3: Anybody can get it. All right, guys. Yeah, I'm just trying to own BoardWalk over here, Adara. So, if we're playing Monopoly, I'm trying to get it over there. All right, guys. B-A-C. Let's take a look at it. Now, guys, we're starting to sell off here. That $1.2 billion fine didn't help Bank of America here. So, what we're going to be looking at is this $56 strike price, all right? So, we couldn't breach that level. So, what's happening now in the pre-market is that you're getting that downward pressure. Is that correlated with what's happening in the derivatives market? I don't think so. But after the open, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a little bit more downward and having the inability to breach this 56 marker. Why 33,000 contracts, okay, leading into the report this morning, still open with volume around 20,000, open and closed on yesterday's session. Going to be expiring on Friday. Now, you can see that we're sitting on a $0.02 spread. The liquidity is there. It's going on under Zinc and Scottish. $0.50 and $0.48. Our delta is sitting at $0.33. And then our gamma exposure sitting at $0.16 and only a penny on our vega. So, implied volatility, not paying too much of an effect into these contracts itself. You see from yesterday's session, you drop 34% in the contract. Once you open up after the bell at 9.30, you're going to probably see a dramatic reduction in the price of this specific contract as well, too. So, I wouldn't be surprised if it's cut by 66%. You're talking about $0.15 or $0.20 at the most after the bell. Moving forward, last but not least, we've got Morgan Stanley up here as well, too, ladies and gentlemen. $2.05 is that level that we're going to be looking at. Open interest sitting at $12,600 and then $12,100 open and closed on yesterday's session. A little bit wider of a spread. We're looking at $0.08 there. And then as for our Greeks, relatively cool, but don't be surprised, right? You've seen that we stayed within the expected move here. But this contract over the past X amount of days, was it, how many days is that, since September, has lost 93% of its value. Just understand the objective when it comes to this. You're not going to find any full-blown recovery unless Morgan Stanley decides to go parabolic after the bell. But you can still make some profit off of that. Just make sure that you keep your risk measures in place. Obviously, it's fist risk premium paid. So those are your two levels on the banks this morning. Let's see if they can find any form of a rebound. But BAC might be in a little bit of trouble here.
[00:27:47] Speaker 1: We actually here with just four minutes, less than four minutes to go until the CPI print. Let's talk about something related here, which is the Fed. Now, this man on my screen, his name is John Williams, not the composer, the New York Fed president. And he gave the market a little bit of a boost here around 2 p.m. when he said that he actually, you know, he sees one more hike throughout the rest of the year. But he doesn't see any hikes in 27 as it stands currently.
[00:28:08] Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's a permanent voting member being the New York Fed president, as you mentioned last time. So, you know, even though he only gets one vote, his vote isn't rotating. So maybe he just has a little bit more persuasion there on the dot plot. I don't think that that's really an argument there. But what he did say was he was trying to basically say energy and AI CapEx are the real drivers of inflation. He doesn't see inflation in other parts of the economy. And he feels that this is more of a supply chain inflation push rather than a demand push where, you know, you have rising wages. People want to take their money, do stuff, buy stuff. That's not what he's saying is happening this year. And then he also pounded the table on another argument that we've been talking about lately, which is the 10 years doing the Fed's jobs for it. Right. We know mortgages linked to the 10 year. What else? Corporate capital expenditures all linked to the 10 year. So as that 10 year, which is now at five and a quarter or wherever it is right now, anyway, at the time of the writing of this article, it was continues to inch up. And we just had the discussion about 6 percent. You know, there's going to be that pressure on other sides. The thing is, though, Adara, like our corporations not going into the debt market because the 10 year is going up. No, they're going into the debt market and they're offering you higher yields to persuade you from not going into the zero risk treasury at five and a quarter and coming into theirs at eight, nine and ten percent. We saw someone raise at nine the other day. I don't remember who it was, but someone was offering nine on a corporate on a corporate bond. So to me, his argument makes sense normally. But what we're seeing in reality is corporations say, well, OK, whatever. The 10 year is elevated. I still need the money. So here's what we're going to offer. Give me give me the money. I need it. So I don't know, man. I don't really see an effective tightening here by the 10 year being at elevated levels. I think we're probably going to continue to trend up.
[00:30:11] Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it'll be an interesting conversation. And sure, if it'll be a conversation we'll have a bit more context for in just 40 seconds. Once we get the CPI prints, we're going to get everybody's thoughts, the guys here, Neil, Sean and Joe, on this Fed once we get the CPI print. So let's go over what we're expecting from the numbers. CPI year over year, 3.6 percent is the forecast. That will be hotter than the prior print of 3.4 percent. Month over month, 0.6 percent forecast versus 0.4 percent previous. Core year over year, 2.5 percent hotter than the 2.4 percent previous. So that heating up here is really prevalent in all of the prints, but the core CPI month over month, we were expecting actually a little bit of cooling. 0.2 percent is the forecast, 0.3 percent previous with just five seconds to go. Guys, don't go anywhere. The consumer price index CPI will be out at any moment. And we're just waiting for it to populate 0.3 percent here. So that's going to be actually hotter than the forecast of 0.2, but in line with 0.3 previous for the core CPI month over month. Core CPI year over year, 2.6 percent versus 2.5 percent expected. That's going to be hotter than expected. CPI year over year, non-core, also hotter than expected, 3.7 percent. And CPI month over month, 0.6 percent in line with estimates of 0.6 percent, but hotter than the previous prints. So as we expected here, you get CPI year over year, CPI month over month, and core year over year, all hotter than the previous prints. In the case of both year over year prints, even hotter than we were expecting. But then we get core CPI month over month again. We were expecting this to be, you know, a little bit cooler than the previous print. It comes in in line with the previous print. So here's a look at the NASDAQ dropping here again on this generally hotter than expected CPI reading. It's a bad look. But let's talk a little bit about these prints here and, you know, maybe how it changes the Fed's job. I'll start with you, Joe.
[00:32:00] Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going with a rate hike guy over here. A little bit tougher of a look at there, as you can see that the market is selling off. And I said to everyone in the chat, just from a trading perspective, allow this volatility to cool off. Right. So, again, I'm not overly worried about it at the end of the day. The market obviously reacted how it's going to react. Be patient. I wouldn't be surprised if the market goes on a little bit of a rally after the bell.
[00:32:27] Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right. We've had kind of those inverse reactions. Let's keep going down the line, though, here, Sean. What are your thoughts on the CPI print?
[00:32:33] Speaker 4: I thought bad. So we just talked about, you know, is 6% going to be a problem? We just shot the moon there up 0.5. We went from 5.19, essentially, up to 5.25 and going longer right now. So, yeah, I mean, you know, a hot CPI, the Fed needs to do more to obviously cool this economy down. It's quite heated. We talked about the month over month. So there it goes to the upside. It looks like they will look at, and we'll check the interest rate, you know, schedule in a couple minutes. But it does look like they're going to have to go for a raise at least one time. So we'll see if Williams is going to be right here heading into the new year, into 27. So, yeah, look what's happening now. Now 5.26 right there. So a big move, huge move, actually, right now in the 10-year. So, yeah, I mean, it's confirming that right now the Fed needs more work to do as, you know, money chases the 10-year higher. So, yeah, market NASDAQ down right now. Joe's going to get his wish to buy some more NVIDIA.
[00:33:30] Speaker 1: What about you, Neil?
[00:33:32] Speaker 5: This is exactly what you didn't want to see. You didn't want it to be too hot after what just happened with those ADP numbers. It's kind of like almost like the worst-case scenario. It puts them in the bottom. Like, they're not going to have a choice with this kind of a hot print. You know, the whole notion of being able to pause a little bit longer, forget about it. Like, that's why you're seeing, like, the SPY just put a down candle, which is equivalent to yesterday's range. Remember how low the volume was yesterday because everyone was waiting for this? Well, this is the reason why. So, Lushan said, you know, rates are going to be going up here. If you can find kernels of strength that didn't get a little bit of a dump in here, that's going to be a little bit of a key, I think, today. We try not to react to the fringes of an 830 number. So, you look at yesterday's lows and see if we can hold on to that. You can look at specifically, and I'll call it TLT just because, you know, obviously, you know, this is something we can actually look at and trade as opposed to the 10-year. That blew through yesterday's bottoms, and you're approaching some key levels from last week when we start thinking about yield. But there's one point that I wanted to go back to, if we could, because when we were talking about the 10-year, and I just wanted to put a little perspective on it, because I don't think we had too much of an opportunity to do that with the whole 5%, 6% conversation. We first touched 5% in 2023. We held this range for three years. This breakout is just really starting when you look at a higher time frame chart. That's where the notion of gliding to a 6%, like the 5%, that's just a touch. Like, we've been flirting with that for two or three years. We've been over four, half, multiple times in that range. So, the breakout is just really a start. And we haven't even talked about international, other countries' debt as well. Like, the international debt market is a huge problem. Every government is in debt. You've got, you're almost at 100%. If you look at developed nations' debt to GDP, you're almost at 100% now. You're ready to crack that. So, there's lots of pressure on yields that isn't just coming from, oh, this is all about energy in the war. No, government spending is also out of control worldwide. That's even more pressure on yields. Not a great look today.
[00:35:53] Speaker 3: Japan is a big-time issue. Oh, of course. But they're always up. Always, always, always a big-time issue.
[00:35:58] Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to bring in Luis Barbato in just a second. But quickly, Sharif, what are your thoughts on this CPI print? Because I did not get to get to you, and that's my bad.
[00:36:04] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting here, Dara. I mean, you know what I say. I'm always going to dive in to see where the inflation is. I suspect we kind of know it's probably going to be electronics and energy, right? What did catch me off guard was the core came in a little bit higher year-over-year at 2.6. We were expecting 2.4 to 2.5. That was a concern of mine because we were pounding the table on the spread between the headline and the core. It's still there. I mean, the spread is still there, but core is making a move a little bit higher. To me, that kind of puts a little bit of a counter-argument to we've got two different economies. We've got the AI and the CapEx for that, as well as energy going one way, everything else going the other. Is it, though? Because core wouldn't have gone up 0.1% year-over-year if that had been the case.
[00:36:48] Speaker 1: I think that's a good point here. And we'll bring in our friend Luis Barbato away from CPI land, over from small-cap land, and more specifically, actually, from Barcelona, Spain, at A Day Trading. Great to have you with us, Luis. I want to start with a name I'm seeing a lot of people in our chat mention, and that is GLND. This is called Greenland Energy, a name that I know has gotten attention before on this show. It's a name that's rallied in the past. What are your thoughts here on GLND, if you have any?
[00:37:15] Speaker 6: Yeah, it was a stock that was moving when the news about Greenland and Trump having this deal with the Greenland and Denmark government. It was in play. And we have seen now a pop here to around $4. So this one and GRML, same environment, same sector, Greenland, Red Minerals. So we're waiting a little bit higher to short these ones. Probably Greenland around $5 resistance. We will see how the opening bell works. You know, sometimes when we have this gap up, they just sell right out the open. And then we will try to short with a pre-market high as a stop. If after the open, we see some consolidations and some buying pressure yet after the bell, we will wait for net resistance. And this would be around $5. When we're talking about GRML, we're talking about $8.58.80 as a resistance. You can go there. The same if in the opening bell, we see selling pressure. We'll go short against pre-market highs. VWAP right now, and both of the tickers are quite far with having the VWAP around $7 in GRML, $3.70 on Greenland. So both of them, the idea is waiting for the bell. If it's selling pressure, we'll go short. At least first profits are on VWAP. But if we see buying pressure, just wait for the next resistance, guys. Because, look, the market has been crazy in the small cap world last day, as you can realize.
[00:38:42] Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about another small cap here that actually already kind of gave up the move. It's another repeat offender, as we call it. I wonder if you were involved in this TGL at all, this treasure global. They did have a catalyst, I think, from yesterday, midday or mid-morning. So it wasn't a brand new catalyst. I mean, did you play this TGL at all?
[00:39:01] Speaker 6: Not real, because it was too early for us. You know, we can trade here from 6 a.m. in the eastern time. So this movement was a little bit earlier, 4 a.m., around 4 a.m. Nice movement on the short side. Maybe not there front side in the first candle, but after it lost volume and losing VWAP, you have like 60% movement down. It's a very nice ticker, but we were not able to trade that early here.
[00:39:29] Speaker 1: Well, another name I have a question for you before we have you get into some of your trades here, other things you're watching. This FFAI, this Faraday Future Intelligent Electric, this has run in the past. And today, I mean, you've got this. It's above a dollar. It rejected that 156 level. Kind of an interesting look here. Is this one that you've shorted or you would be watching for a potential short later today?
[00:39:52] Speaker 6: We should have. I think I have to admit we didn't have this one on our radar so far, but it's almost the perfect microstructure for a short cap. An attention movement, recall the VWAP here for a long on the pullback, and then fail highs, failing VWAP, and very likely failing for the rest of the day. Very nice movement. We were not aware of this one in the pre-market, but very good one, actually.
[00:40:20] Speaker 1: Well, I'm happy to bring it to your attention then, I guess. Are there any other names that you're watching today or any trades that you've had for the last day or so that you want to share with us here?
[00:40:29] Speaker 6: Well, first, main two tickers, as you said, were the Greenland Rare Minerals. Those are the ones that are very interesting right now. And we will see. We are waiting a little bit for the second and third day. Look, we are having crazy market these days in the small cap runner of 300%, 500%. You remember WFF. Yesterday, we have JBDI. JBDI, as you can see, I'm going to put it here. JBDI was crazy movement yesterday from $1.20, $2, halted on $2.20, open back in $5, $6, went to $9, crazy, crazy movement. We had also FLW, sorry, Y-E, also crazy movement, halting around $4 and opening back in $6. So we are having a lot of these kind of crazy movements. So sorting those one front side or even sometimes back side is getting very, very risky. So we are waiting until they lose all the attention and the volume goes to other tickers and then they fade. The perfect example was WFF, that it went to $50 from $2 or $3 to $50. The next day was holding pretty nicely. And then when nobody was watching yesterday because we were messing up with JBDI and all these other tickers, look, 90% down. So be very patient. Don't short these ones front side because it can get very, very difficult. Wait until no one is looking the stock. And when nobody is looking the stock, it might fade during all the day without bullying because the people is somewhere else.
[00:42:07] Speaker 1: So I understand someone else here from our team has a question for you here. So I think so. We'll go to that if we can.
[00:42:14] Speaker ?: Yeah.
[00:42:17] Speaker 3: Oh, Luis, what's going on? Sharif, why are you laughing? No, in all seriousness, I'll make it quick. We got some market data to go over. With that being said, that is going to lead into my question. How much of a factor are these American macroeconomic data prints play into your day trading? Do you notice that, hey, if there's a potential Fed rate hike on the horizon, do you see that affect the trading style or how you go to your day-by-day operations?
[00:42:47] Speaker 6: I think it doesn't affect a lot when we are talking about the small cash, very, very low float companies. You know, most of them, look, there are companies that they're looking for money. They need money to keep on going with the project. They need financials. And that's why they go to the stock market. It is not that much about interest rates or CPIs or anything like that. They need to finance their projects. They go into the stock market. They start to release news to, you know, play with this raising capital through offerings or warrants, convertibles, and so on. So, actually, for us, it's kind of okay that this doesn't impact our trading because we can be more safe that we don't have highlights of Trump tweeting or, you know, some news about the world. We are kind of more safe in this kind of environment.
[00:43:38] Speaker 3: Perfect. Thank you.
[00:43:39] Speaker 1: And we'll see Luis again later today at 1 p.m., I believe, with both Joe and Sharif on the midday. Thank you so much for being here with us. Luis Barbato from Academy Day Trading or A Day Trading in Barcelona. You can also often find him in our chat as A Day Trading. We'll see you at 1, Luis.
[00:43:58] Speaker 6: Thank you very much, Alara. See you later.
[00:44:00] Speaker 1: See you later. We're going to send it over to Joe with the upgrades and downgrades for today.
[00:44:05] Speaker 3: All right, guys. Let's get right into some of these analyst actions here. And then we're going to talk some more CPI. Now, on the top of our list, downgrade here. Market perform rating by Keefe. But with a price target reduction, a staggering $30 here, guys. So, going from $1,130 to $1,000 price target. Goldman's earnings profile continues to shift towards more durable, repeatable revenue sources, which, over time, should lead to a higher multiple. Look at Citibank. Again, another big-time price cut here, guys. $156 down to a staggering $155. Watch out for that one. Buy rating by Goldman Sachs. But the company increased its 2026 net interest income, something a metric that Sharif is consistently talking about. And we've seen that was kind of the common denominator amongst all these banks is net interest income continuing to increase. The negative market reaction to results is primarily positioning-driven. All right. Now, we'll take a look at some more positive things. Uh-oh, Sean. JP Morgan getting the overweight rating. And another big-time price increase. $420 over to $425, that is. So, a $5 bump from Barclays. The analyst cites the banks reported a rare earnings miss. But its net 2027 net interest income is trending much higher. You can see how that has been the narrative. Last but not least, ladies and gentlemen, Lockheed Martin getting the nod, going from a hold to a buy. And a $600 price target. Vertical research giving them the nod. But there's much uncertainty about the outlook for the U.S. defense budget. An area where there is a bipartisan support for is increased spending on missiles. Guys, those are your analyst actions here this morning. Let's send it back to Adair.
[00:45:57] Speaker 1: I'm talking about IONQ. I put this on, this headline on the screen here while Luis was here. But we actually have a rough headline on this one. IONQ dropping sharply. They filed to offer 20.5 million shares. So, in case you're running for IONQ is down, it's not purely CPI related. This thing is just dropping because of its own catalyst. Although, related to CPI, you have super core CPI. I just saw this come through. 3.13% versus 3.02% expected. I mean, this CPI print is still a really rough look here, guys. The SPY, I mean, we got as high as 780 and halves this morning. Currently trading around 775. So, trying to bounce off that level. Here's the NASDAQ high, pre-market high here around 746. Doubled half of 746. Now trading around 738. I mean, it's still a really rough look here, Sheree, for the CPI prints, to be sure.
[00:46:47] Speaker 2: Yeah. Oh, absolutely. And the fact that the NASDAQ, the Qs now, are at day's lows tells you that. I just wonder if we continue to break down like this during the regular trading hours or there's a bit of a recovery. Like, look, again, the one thing that I really want to state is core came in a little bit higher. So, to me, that puts the argument here that was being pressed earlier into question. It is not just a matter of, you know, one or two areas of the economy that are responsible for the inflation. There could be that demand cycle inflation rather than that supply side. If you have that demand side, then that really strengthens the case for the rate hikes because that's what rate hikes are supposed to kind of taper down.
[00:47:27] Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm seeing now, apparently, I'm always cautious to check this evening if I'd watch too close to these numbers because I find it takes a little bit of time to react. But I'm seeing, apparently, people are expecting now three hikes for sure priced in in 2027. As of yesterday, I believe we were seeing two, one in March, one in April. I'm still seeing some struggles updating this thing, so I'm going to keep an eye on it. But it looks like we are seeing a little bit more hawkishness, as was kind of expected. Let's talk here about banks a little bit as well, which is something else here we're seeing more of a drop in as we digest the CPI print. So, we will continue to talk about that. BAC, I believe, currently holding its earnings call. Saw a couple comments from CEO Brian Moynihan, but we're going to talk more about this in the rundown. Both BAC and MS, though, to the downside. I mean, what are some kind of takeaways now that we've got these six major financial institutions that are reported?
[00:48:12] Speaker 2: So, some of the stuff that we saw, you know, just from the banks that have already reported is stuff that we had predicted before the reports Monday morning, which was we would get a fleeing of capital from accounts that don't pay high interest into accounts that do. Joe just mentioned it. I've been mentioning it for the last three days. Net interest income, net interest margins get hurt when you take money out from low-yielding accounts, where the banks maybe give you 1%. Now, they're forced to kind of give you 5% on that because that spread difference was how they were making net interest margins. So, that hurts them. It's good for people. It's not great for banks. So, make of that what you will. Schwab, reports tomorrow. What are we waiting for for Schwab? While Schwab was one of the unique cases during the regional banking crisis, if you recall, in 23 and 24, they actually took out a lot of debt, Adara, to help kind of assuage some of the pressures in the industry. And they're going to try to pay. We want to hear about how much they paid down from that debt because that also is affecting their net interest margins as well as EPS. So, I'd be interested to see how quickly they can get that done. And then we're seeing very good equities trading from almost all the banks who have come in. And that doesn't surprise me. There's been plenty of volatility in the markets. Volatility breeds, of course, opportunity. So, you've seen that from JPM, GS, MS, and we're expecting it as well from Schwab tomorrow. So, let's see if they can kind of meet some of their competitors' expectations there.
[00:49:44] Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean, if you had to pick a day one bank earnings play for today, BAC or MS, which one are you going to?
[00:49:49] Speaker 4: I mean, I was about to write down BAC on my list here today. I don't have a bank on there. But, yeah, I would say BAC, man. I mean, it's down 8% right now. This is like an absolute monster move to the low end right here. And we are breaking below 50. We just did, actually. That level has been pretty, you know, well looked at here over the last little while. We did spend a little bit of time underneath. And, again, all of the bank names, I mean, I just looked at Morgan is red on the year. BAC now red on the year. So, if you've been sitting in these names, all you have done is just collect a little small dividend. And it sucks to have been in these names. And I don't think it's getting any better. So, for me, Adara, I look at BAC and I look to fade, you know, anywhere if we can get back up to this 51 market. We're not too far away from that. I mean, look, these, the CPI has started to make these things a little bit worse. But in banks, this season, it's been, okay, if you beat, then you just get faded. If you miss, then you just get wrecked. So, right now, you know, Goldman Sachs had an incredible quarter, beat absolutely everywhere. And we saw what happened to Goldman Sachs yesterday. And maybe Goldman does suck, after all. Because, you know, yesterday was just a very, very brutal. And I bought this name. I'm long about 900. I think it was 904 or something. So, we were really excited yesterday. Look at the big beat. You know, huge moves up to 938. We're like, yay, Goldman, you're so good, right? And then the market opens up and there's just like smack, smack, smack, smack, smack. Like, it tries to get going there. No, it doesn't. Under view up. No, it doesn't. Under view up. Under, under, under. And then now, today, we look and we're down to 878. So, you know, if you're going to put up a quarter like the one Goldman did and you're still going to get hit, I'm fearful for what may happen to a name like Morgan Stanley. Now, basically, zeros on the year for this name, down 2.27%. So, yeah, I'm a little fear for all of this. So, to answer your question, yeah, I think you've got to go where the money's going today and that's going to be a short of BAC.
[00:51:43] Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a question here for Neil as well. Before we get to that, though, I want to talk a little bit more about the CPI numbers because you've got GLD sharply to the downside here as well. This, again, you've got CPI inflation hotter than expected pretty much across the board. Actually, I have an infographic for this that I posted quickly, so we'll pull this up here. You've got CPI month-over-month, 0.6%. It's going to be hotter than the 0.4% prior, but in line with estimates. Core CPI month-over-month, 0.3%, hotter than estimates of 0.2%. CPI year-over-year, 3.7% versus the prior print of 3.4% and estimates of 3.6%. And core CPI year-over-year, 2.6% versus 2.5% expected in the prior print of 2.4%. So it's those year-over-year prints and the core prints especially that are going to be a little bit hotter just to kind of go over that here, guys. Again, gold dropping, this is why. Neil, we talk a lot here. I know you talk a lot about how sometimes we let the day-two earnings plays go to the wayside. So what are your day-two bank earnings plans, if you have any, for JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and or Citigroup?
[00:52:46] Speaker 5: I tend to think because they do the staggered approach where you get a few each day, I think the whole settle-down period does mean you almost want to wait till tomorrow if you're thinking about some kind of reversal. It's hard not to look at BAC before we even got this print. Before that even happened, BAC looked like a short. But to Sean's point, if we're going to talk about day two and that's where we're going to pivot, I guess we can talk about BAC a little bit more. You've got to be able to put into perspective. You can say, oh, Goldman's down and had a good quarter. This is a weekly of Morgan Stanley. Here's a weekly of Goldman Sachs if it ever decides to load up. If you look at all the, if you look at the most recent drawdowns, the sustained drawdowns, you got, you got February 2025. We have the local top here at the beginning of the year. And then we have this current high. It hasn't held, the moving averages haven't really mattered too much. But really, it's like when you get this sustained move down, first green week has been go on the banks. It's already happened twice in the last two years. And I think that's something to look forward to. Maybe go out to the higher time frame to calm this one down. Because, you know, the housing market's going to be pretty weak off. I don't know if we've talked about the housing market, but obviously this increasing of the rates, which is now obviously a little bit more likely after these hot seat backgrounds. That's just another, another dagger to the housing market, which again is going to be something that hurts the banks and why they'll be down. But when I look at these drawdowns that they've had each time, like there's been great buying opportunities. Green week, that's a good spot to look for the buy rather than, oh, well, it's simple. Just buy them on the next day kind of ideas. It feels like it's a little bit different, but sometimes you zoom it out, go to that higher time frame and see what an opportunity it's generally been. Like, obviously, you know, Warren Buffett used to say, when other people are fearful, be greedy. I think with the banks, that's generally speaking what you want to be doing is not being, not running away when they're pulling back. That's usually the best time to be getting in.
[00:54:52] Speaker 1: What about you, Joe? I know you like these banks here in the longer term, specifically JP Morgan. Do you have any day trade ideas for this? Are you going to be watching any of these? Because there is some volatility, especially in, as Sean mentioned, that BAC move.
[00:55:03] Speaker 3: Yeah, I typically don't look at these as day trading vehicles. I mean, obviously, inside of earnings, you get the increase in volume, right? So you can see some more liquidity step into them. But you know what? I see that the majority of these names are down 20 plus percent, right? Like Goldman Sachs is now down 23 percent. BAC is now down 23 percent as well, too. So you're officially entering bear market territory. JP Morgan is down 10 percent. But if the camera was on me not too long ago, you would have seen I've been I've been grinning from ear to ear. And I think my guy Katina man should be, too, is I understand that you lose. And I'm not grinning at all. I want I want all the stocks that I own to go up.
[00:55:48] Speaker 4: OK, but that's fine. But that's not the reality of the market. So I mean, you can't be happy. There's no way that Joe, there's no way as an as an equity investor currently in the market. Right. You're happy with the current state of these banks.
[00:55:59] Speaker 3: So you you just bought Goldman Sachs down 20 percent. And you said this to me the other day. So you don't. Yeah, now I feel like an idiot. But you don't like it down 23 percent now. I just lost three percent, Joe. Yeah, but you don't like it now at 23 percent.
[00:56:13] Speaker 4: It's not about liking a stock. It's about saying that, you know, you can't look. You can't always look at it when your stocks go down and be like, oh, man, this is a great opportunity to buy.
[00:56:20] Speaker 3: Because eventually you run out of cash and you need inflows of cash. But what I'm getting at is that, OK, you bought some down 20 percent. You don't like it at an additional three.
[00:56:30] Speaker 4: No, I mean, I don't like what the market's doing. I mean, stocks don't just trade on their own validity. You understand that, right? They trade with the market. Well, a lot of stock like like the banks aren't going to just recover.
[00:56:43] Speaker 5: Here's a better question. Imagine you were not invested in the market and you were started.
[00:56:49] Speaker 4: Perfect.
[00:56:49] Speaker 5: Would you be would you be happy that you get a chance to buy it today as opposed to yesterday?
[00:56:56] Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah.
[00:56:57] Speaker 5: I mean, I think that's a that's a more fair question. That's what I'm trying to say to Joe. I think that's what you're trying. I think that's what you're getting at. Exactly.
[00:57:03] Speaker 3: But I mean, what is the difference of two days? Like if you bought it two days ago, it's down additional three percent. It's not like you threw the whole thing. But we have new information is what I'm saying. Yeah, that's fine. But you didn't throw the kitchen sink at it. So it's like, OK, so so if you liked it two days ago, down 20 percent, it's now down 23 percent. Shouldn't it be more attractive?
[00:57:20] Speaker 4: No, I like it less. But you just because it's because it's not reacting the way you just mentioned how fantastic the earnings are. They are. That's what I'm saying.
[00:57:26] Speaker 3: And that's what I'm saying. I cannot believe how it's reacting. So if the fund so exactly. So if the market's pricing this in and it's down an additional three percent with great fundamentals, maybe it's just a little bit of an overreaction.
[00:57:36] Speaker 4: I do think it's an overreaction. But the thing is, I don't control the way these where these stocks are going. None of us do. Exactly. So we have to trade off price action. And right now, I'm wrong by buying it three days ago because it's down three.
[00:57:48] Speaker 3: But you can you can be down another three percent and like it equally as much is what I'm getting at. Oh, no, no. I could like the stock.
[00:57:55] Speaker 4: I'm not selling it here. What I'm saying is I can't be happy owning stocks in this current environment.
[00:58:01] Speaker 3: But I think you should look at it from an opportunity. Oh, I do. I do. I'm forever long. I just don't think that if you're forever long, then down 23 percent should be more attractive.
[00:58:11] Speaker 4: Yeah. But what about when this goes down 30 percent? Then it should be even more attractive. Right.
[00:58:14] Speaker 3: And if you don't think Goldman Sachs is going to recover, then I don't I don't know what else.
[00:58:19] Speaker 4: No, I do think it's going to recover. But what I'm saying to you is, is that you have to look at stocks sometimes in a vacuum a little bit. Right. You can't just be like, oh, my God, this stock is down three percent today. I'm buying more three percent tomorrow. I'm buying more because eventually it gets down 20 percent and all of a sudden you're crushed. That's what I'm trying to get at. Absolutely.
[00:58:36] Speaker 3: But look, look, look at the trajectory of these bank stocks. They're very, very red. Dude, I mean, I'm involved with them just as much as you are. I mean, I've been in JPM for quite some time. And you're happy with the reaction this earnings season. Yeah, because I get the fundamentals are great, as you just mentioned. So why wouldn't we look to buy these stocks?
[00:58:54] Speaker 4: I mean, if you're happy with the bank's reactions in this earnings season, then that's great. But I'm not.
[00:59:00] Speaker 5: Well, here's the thing. They drew back 25 percent in the beginning of the year. They're drawn back 25 percent now. I think, to me, the concern becomes when you look at the monthlies and the weeklies and the monthlies, when you start extending the drawback further than usual. Like, that's where, like, things like, I'm not saying 08's happening, but that's where things like 08, where it gets too extreme, and that's what you're talking about. You don't have enough money left. Right now, you're at the point where you haven't broken down. But usually, when you're drawing back on your earnings and the fundamentals are good, that's like the buy spot because they pulled back so far that you want them snapping back. Usually, what we talk about is on day one, day two, after the banks have pulled back and they have strong earnings, you buy on day two. Or literally, sometimes you actually even buy it just in the pre-market. The difference here is that they're still drawing back. Now, me, I think you wait for the weekly print. We actually, if we're down the next week, I think that's a bigger tell. I don't want to overreact to a day or two. I think if you like it for that long term, try to draw back and maybe look at the higher time frame chart. But we are used to blindly buying banks when fundamentals good down on day one. It's been working.
[01:00:14] Speaker 3: Isn't that the exact scenario that we're sitting in right now? Good numbers, great net interest income. JPM actually was one of the worst. It missed on the bottom.
[01:00:23] Speaker 5: No, but if you look at Goldman yesterday, I'm just using the example of what we're used to seeing, right? Goldman, a good quarter. Down early, buys it back up in the pre-market in the call. Then spent the rest of the day selling off and is now lower. That's where I think it's a little bit different. Now, I'm going to care about the weeklies. If this weekly continues weak, I think you've got a bigger problem. We've got a couple of days for this to calm down. We just had a hot CPI print. I think overreacting to it is a mistake.
[01:00:54] Speaker 1: Yeah, and let's talk about this CPI print again, guys, before we get into the rundown, because we're at 56.3% here for the October meeting now of getting that hold. We've gone up to 43.7% for a hike. That's about 20% higher than we were, Sharif, before this number. Let's look ahead at the probabilities. We're now seeing a hike, again, potentially here in October, but still not leading towards it. For sure, a hike in December. We're pricing a hike in January. We're pricing a hike in March of 2027. So that's three back-to-back hikes. Then another hike in September. We could potentially get a cut in December of 2027, but that's so far away here. I mean, Sharif, now we've got PPI tomorrow. What? I mean, things get a little bit dicey here when you look at what's happening with this CPI and especially the inflation heating up here.
[01:01:36] Speaker 2: And you and I talked about this, I think, on Monday, about the fact that PPI has those core components that are contained within the PCE, which, of course, if you still believe that that is their preferred measure of inflation, used to be under the prior administration, under Jerome Powell. I don't know if it is with Chair Warsh, but those have three main components. I think one of them is manufacturing, a couple of others that are not coming to mind at the moment. So I think PPI will absolutely be important for the inflation, for the rate hike discussion as opposed to the inflation discussion. So focus on that, definitely.
[01:02:11] Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely focus on that, guys. We are going to, and I'm going to go over these prints here one more time as we get ready for the futures with Sharif. But CPI, month over month, you're 0.6%, in line with estimates of 0.6%, but higher than the prior print of 0.4. Of course, CPI, month over month, 0.3% versus estimates of 0.2%, and in line with the prior print of 0.3%. So harder than expected, in line with the prior print. CPI year over year, this was just hot across the board. 3.7% versus 3.6% estimate, and 3.4% prior. And of course, CPI year over year, 2.6% versus 2.5% estimate, and 2.4% prior. So that's the CPI print, guys. Again, it's going to be the year over year, and the core prints especially, being a little bit hotter for these prints. But let's see how the futures are looking, because you know the futures cooled down, Sharif, after these hotter CPI prints. To put it mildly.
[01:02:59] Speaker 2: No doubt about it, Adaira. We closed at 778. So within earshot of all-time highs, 781.5%, I believe, all-time highs. We're below now, though, because the CPI print, not pleasing this market. Adaira, we're still holding 775, believe it or not. We're above it right now. Are we above it when the bell rings or half an hour? Subsequent, your guess is as good as mine, but we're going to say sport level 1, 775 on the SPY. We're down a third of a percent right now. We continue selling off, and there's a good chance we do. We're looking at 772.5 as sport level 2, 770 as sport level 3. I doubt we'll really take a turn for the higher here. But if we do, we're looking at yesterday's closing print, Adaira, 778 as resistance 1.
[01:03:42] Speaker 1: Now, let's take a look here at this BAT, if I can pull it up, because, um, oh, I took a
[01:03:48] Speaker ?: minute.
[01:03:48] Speaker 2: Okay. Absolutely. Let's take a look at Bank of America, guys. They reported earnings this morning, and they're not looking good here to start the morning. Here's what we were looking for in terms of expectations. EPS was supposed to come in at $1.08 to $1.10. What it ended up coming in at is 91 pennies versus that $1.10 expected, so a significant miss on the bottom line there, with a miss on the top line as well, $30 billion in revenue. The street was looking for 30.5 to 30.69, so a miss on the top and bottom line there. There was some good stuff, but let's start with the bad, the $1.2 billion anti-money laundering regulatory charge getting hit there pretty hard, $1.2 billion just right like that on the quarter. They are realizing it all this quarter. Net interest income, again, despite some of the top line misses there. This actually rose 8% over a year. They brought in $16.45 billion Adaira in net interest income. That confirms their underlying lending engine and yield recovery kind of remain intact, so some weakness in other spots. This wasn't one of them. What else we got? We got fixed income and currencies and commodities. That's our FICC division. Did pretty bad. $2.55 billion versus a $2.86 expected, especially when you look at the fact that JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley just absolutely killed it in their equity section. So, this isn't the exact same because it's more of a debt market investment or trading as opposed to equities trading, but they missed there. That's not good. Last but not least, they put some money back into shareholders' block. It's always good to report on this. $8.3 billion in share buybacks and dividends.
[01:05:33] Speaker 1: Yeah, let's take a look here. Guys, what are your thoughts on BAC downside here on this hot CPI day, but also because of reaction to this print?
[01:05:41] Speaker 5: I actually think it would have been a lot more simple if there hadn't been the hot CPI number because BAC was the, oh, this is the easy one to pick on based on the quarter. It's the clear short on multiple time frames. You get the gap down. You had the sell-off yesterday and even like the Goldman's of the world after the early spike. It's such a clear flat bottom break. There was so much going for it in here and then room to $50, which was the most local support. And then, of course, we get the hot CPI print and we're already at that $50 level. That's, I hate the term, it is what it is, but the kind of stuff that you can do about it that, you can't do anything about it at this point. All I can look at is, look at it ride VWAP pretty much the entirety of the morning. Now, on any morning, we are very, very accustomed to seeing when you have a morning report, some kind of a crazy move off of the open. Yesterday, you had already moved up on Goldman, so there was a big flashback down right away at 9.30. I think in BAC's case, it's probably making sense to anticipate the opposite of that. It's down a bunch, thinking some buying can come into this at said open. So, right in around VWAP in the 51 level is where I'd look for the first available fade. I might have wrote down 52. Those prices are relevant after CPI at this point. But, you know, if it does get that much farther upside, I think it'll be a little bit of patience if you have that blast up initially. But, yeah, the look is to be fading BAC. Remember, even without this loss, even without that $1.2 billion settlement, they still had declining revenues. And that's the big thing, which might get lost because that big $1.2 billion sort of headline takes away from the fact that structurally this was, you know, the weakest quarter of the banks.
[01:07:38] Speaker 4: Before we get going here, we've got to have a quick word from our market open sponsor, Venhub. This is more than a concept. Venhub lists operating smart store locations at the LAX Metro Transit Center, Union Station, and Hollywood in Los Angeles. Its stores combine app-based ordering, robotic fulfillment, and automated pickup to provide around-the-clock access to products and locations where conventional retail can be challenging to operate. To see how Venhub's AI-powered smart stores work, visit Venhub.com. We like us some Venhub there. I really like that idea. We talked about that before. You know, just the sort of the vending machine style there, Carvana style, for your electronic needs there as well. Yeah, we can, I mean, we can look at all the banks, really. I mean, we just, Adair brought it to me. I know Neil just did BAC, but I think it is where you want to look here today. I'm a little bit surprised that the NASDAQ hasn't bounced back, you know, from that CPI number. Generally, we do start to trend higher. We tried right there and got hit again. So, yeah, I don't think this is a great environment for the banks, as you might have just heard our last conversation. So, yeah, banks really breaking down. I mean, we can't sit here as a group and say we like to buy stock at the 200-period moving average, and then when it's well off of that, it's down 10% from your 200-period moving average. So, yeah, this is a falling knife, right? And I don't think it's worth catching it right now. These may be the bottoms. I mean, you know, to Joe's point, you want to buy good companies when they're getting hit. And the banks have, you know, traditionally been good returns. You get a dividend in them as well. But I definitely think that all of these names are like three-day plays, right? You want to give them a little bit of a rest. Will I be buying more Goldman Sachs down? Yes, I will. Will it be today or tomorrow? Maybe not. I mean, the market continues to get hit, and XLF right here. If there's a saving grace, you could be in the KWB, KBW, sorry, or XLF, both right now hovering around that 200-period moving average. So, although individual bank names are definitely getting hit this earnings season, and we're almost through it, by the way, right? There's only a couple more days of banks, and then we're done. But, yeah, I think, you know, 200-period moving average looks pretty good to me here on the XLF. So, instead of picking your poison with all the different ones, I'm invested in J.P. Morgan, Schwab, and now Goldman Sachs. And then the worst one of them all, of course, is SoFi, and that just took out 15 bucks. This is the one I have the most money in, I think. And it is absolutely getting hammered right now, SoFi. So, see you later on this one, man, and it's like, I don't know, maybe I like it too much, I should be buying more. But, as I said, eventually I'm going to be running out of cash to start to buy some SoFi. But you're right out of Flat Bottom area, right there, 1480. This name looks pretty weak. I think SoFi and BAC, good shorts here today.
[01:10:31] Speaker 1: Let's take a look here now. I mean, Netflix actually with a headline, they are cutting 6% of their staff, roughly 1,000 jobs, according to Wall Street Journal. This is not the first time we've gotten reports of Netflix cutting jobs. This actually happened last week as well, an outlet called Puck on Friday reported Netflix would be cutting jobs. But that story is going to be back in focus here today. Let's talk about CoreWeave, because CRWB has a headline here, Brandon McBee, the company's co-founder, coming to Financial Times and saying they're looking for unlimited insurance capital to fuel, guess what, Sharif, AI expansion.
[01:10:59] Speaker 2: What a shock, Adira. And look, this is actually quite an interesting development. So many parts of this. Let's start with the first part. To be able to access insurance capital, you have to be what they call investment. You have to have an investment grade credit rating. Otherwise, insurance companies are statutorily prohibited from investing in you. So the first things first, you got to get that kind of investment grade rating. And then you can kind of move on to step number two. Step number two is to try to lower the insane 15% that they're paying high yield on their long-term debt. And they want to obviously lower it because they have expansionary visions here. They want to grow from one and a half gigawatts to eight gigawatts by the end of the decade. The only way to do that is with debt. And because they're paying 15%, they want to definitely lower some of that debt. Just to give you an idea, they got $52 billion in total debt right now as of mid-26. Every 100 basis points that they can reduce the interest rate by cuts $520 million annually from their expenses, their interest expenses. So definitely a lot of motivation to do that. Continuing on, I mentioned already that they have that investment grade rating and to be able to access this insurance loan. And then last but not least, they have this $8.5 billion chip-back loan, which is secured by a takeoff agreement with Meta. And it was the first chip collateralized loan that actually achieved full grade, investment grade rating. So they do have part of their debt, which has been kind of earmarked already as investment grade. Let's see if they're able to get some more money out of these insurance companies, Adara.
[01:12:50] Speaker 1: Again, I want to go over this again here before we go back to the guys. The reason the market's down here is, of course, the harder than expected CTI prints. They all came in harder than expected in some cases, especially with the likes of, you know, the year over years and the core prints coming in higher than the previous print or in line with the previous print as well. So not a good look, not what the market was expecting. We're now pricing in three rate hikes in 2027 and at least one for sure for the rest of this year. We're even seeing odds of the October rate hike increase as well.
[01:13:18] Speaker 5: Yeah. Is there a company that's going to hate that more than CoreWeave? And that's sort of the thing. CoreWeave is the sort of the epicenter of the AI trade when it comes to debt. And you're seeing another example of that here. Like, what are the two names? We just talked about BAC being down eight points. And then you've got CoreWeave down seven and a half as well. Now, the difference between the two, I would say, is CoreWeave, it has a lot of room to the next level support where there was a big key level that, you know, Bank of America is kind of cresting to right now, that 50. But yeah, you're looking at the low $60 range where this bounced back earlier in the year. And that's generally been the spot where, oh, you've been able to buy CoreWeave when it gets under the $70 level. Like somewhere underneath $70, it's made a bit of a bounce. So that gives you room for this thing to flush today. Now, I liked NVIDIA at levels that are obviously not going to happen today. BAC at levels that are seemingly unlikely to happen today. CoreWeave, when I look at things, I always go support to resistance. You can throw all of that out the window at this point. If it even sniffs $76, I don't think, like that's like V-shaped recovery and breaking out. So I think you just got to look at the volume-weighted average price as a bit of a guide here. Now, this will not be a candidate for an SSR bounce. If this gets down 10%, I'm not going to care. It's not that type of a stock. You know, if Tesla goes down 10%, I'm looking for an SSR bounce. And CoreWeave, if it gets down to that 10% marker, I wouldn't be looking for some kind of a bid. I think you just want to look to short the volume-weighted average price here. Until the market can prove that we're ready to shrug this one off, there's two names that don't get the benefit of the doubt. And we just talked about one, and this is the other.
[01:15:08] Speaker 4: All right. Here's a note today. I just put it in the chat. Yeah, man. I mean, I have CoreWeave at $77 short. I mean, we're going to have to adjust that, right? I mean, this AI build-out funding is not going to go well, especially as rates start to get... I mean, it's even worse now for CoreWeave because rates have just gotten more expensive. So, you know, I have CoreWeave written down on the note. And again, we wrote it down when it was at $75, right? I mean, the problem is I told you before CPI, we only had two names written down, and it was Google and CoreWeave. And unfortunately, when it was at $75, it was looking much more like if we did get, you know, a cool or, you know, sort of expected CPI number, that maybe CoreWeave would come back up to $77. But look how good this looks for support yesterday. I mean, that $77 was huge. So I don't think we're going to get that here today. $77, when we wrote it, was where the 200-period moving average is. You guys know where I'm always looking at that. So $75 and change rate there for CoreWeave. Definitely something to look at for myself. And I think that's what we'll be doing. $75 on the fade for CoreWeave. I don't... Like, we most likely don't get back up there. You're already down 8%. When we first looked at this, like I said, it was down 4%. So it's gotten going there. We may have to use VWAP. CoreWeave is definitely a name. And maybe I should just test it with 100 shares here. All right, I'm going to go back, back, back, back, back. Oh, no, I have to pay for shorts. We don't have shorts. No, so there you go, Neil. So see, this is what I'm saying. Saving people one trade at a time, including myself, over here with CoreWeave.
[01:16:30] Speaker 5: Bending spoons up 19%. There we go. We love some bending spoons. Just now. Thank you, Rob. That headline just dropped. Berkshire invest another $330 million. They got plenty of cash. They are watching the show. In bending spoons, lifting its stake to 4%. Only 4%, which means, I'm not saying they're going to buy more, but, I mean, it means they could buy more if they wanted to. 20%. It's only 100,000 shares of volume. So very, I mean, that's obviously very light volume, but compared to what it normally does in the pre-market, this is good pre-market volume for bending spoons. Maybe not liquid in the traditional sense, but looking super strong here and definitely on a breakout. So there's a few names that are up today that aren't just Apple and Netflix because they're doing the reverse of the chip trade. Bending spoons and Berkshire to the upside. What should have been to the upside on a normal day, ASML was a strong report. Doesn't seem to matter because it's back in the red.
[01:17:25] Speaker 1: I want to talk as well here about this BSP, contextualize a little bit more, as we saw here. BRK investing another $330 million in the company. They now have a 4% stake in Bending Spoon. How they did this here, Sharif and everybody, was through a 10 million share private placement, $33 per share. Berkshire also invested $600 million. So they invest just under a billion total here in Bending Spoon. That's $600 million at the time of the BSP IPO back in early July. I believe it was July 1st. I think it was Canada Day. So nice. Look here. Four Bending Spoons continuing to bend to the upside. But let's talk about another European company and a good friend of yours here, Sharif. It's ASML. ASML, there's your strong earnings. They're guiding here into 2030. Christophe Foucault and company, or Foucault, they seem to be doing well. But the market, not liking what they have to say.
[01:18:12] Speaker 2: No, no. The market's going to be a little bit negative, I feel, today, probably, for most of these chip names as we talk more about inflation. But look, these are solid reports, guys. Full disclosure, you know, we've got a position here. Look, net sales, let's just say 11.7 billion euros. Net profit of a little bit less than 5 billion euros. Record gross margins at 57.5%. Part of that 500 million euro profit, though, was a re-evaluation of their investment into Mistral, which is that European agentic LLM. If you remove that out, it's more about like 4.5 billion. So about a $500 million repricing of the investment there. Installed base service upgrades here. So what does that mean? That means like, you know, any machines that need servicing, anything like that. Record gross margins there, 57.5%. Not driven by tool shipments, but driven by services. So a higher margin business for them. Now, with respect to them being able to meet demand. Demand is through the roof. Again, I got Christophe Fouquet, or however his name is spelled. He says, look, demand for EUV and DUV is through the roof. That's going to force the company to spend more money on CapEx and expand production. Something they hadn't planned on doing. That could hurt EPS, at least in the short term. So something to watch out for there. And then what's the next step, Adara? We've been talking about DUV. We've been talking about EUV. Have you heard of NA EUV? I don't even know what the NA stands for. But it's the next step here for ASML. Now, the question is, when are they going to start deploying it? And who's going to buy it? Well, Samsung has confirmed they're going to include that NA EUV machine in their factories by 2028. Taiwan sent me those like, nice that Samsung's doing it. I won't be able to get to it until 2030. So that next step for ASML could be a little bit longer dated in the future. Now, they also raised guidance pretty aggressively. For sales for full year 26, they're saying 44 to 45 billion euros, 56% gross margins. They also boosted Q4 revenue guidance, saying $4.2 to $15.2 billion for EUV shipments. And that should be a 45% jump year over year. Let's see if they can do it.
[01:20:24] Speaker 1: Yeah, let's see if they can get this NA EUV interesting look here. ASML guys, how are your thoughts on this and some of the other chip names here this morning?
[01:20:31] Speaker 5: Yeah, well, again, if it wasn't for CPI, if this had been 2.5% down without the print, then you always look at it as a bit of a bellwether for the chip. Because they basically affirmed that the demand is still going to be there going forward with Samsung and TSM's order flow. They remain a couple of steps ahead of China's attempts to break into their market. Even at the lower end, they still have a very good market share on less advanced machinery in China. So all of the strength is still there for ASML, but you can't really ignore where it bounced here today. Like this is a, the dark line is that 200 period moving average, it just recently bounced there without making a fresh high. You could argue it bounced twice without getting back to highs already, even if the last one didn't quite get there. So I think if you're, if you're unable to hold the 200 period moving average, then you've got to, I'm talking about for the next week or so, but I think you've got to look at this as a, maybe some of these stocks are going to give you a bigger dip than you were anticipating. I do still think I'm going to be looking to the short side. Again, if it wasn't for, if it wasn't for SMC or the CPI print was probably looking negative on the chips based on the reaction of SMM. ASML and one of the names that I liked Southbound, that'd be a cool print. If you could have gotten to the upside there on that dark pool print on SMCI, I liked this one. And we mentioned, mentioned stocks that we're interested in at key price levels. Well, the levels that you had before CPI, you've got to throw out the window. Like when Adara came to us at the beginning of the show, I said, oh, look at that triple or quadruple top on SMCI, 3950. It's the 50 period on the daily. Again, that's not going to matter. It would have to rally $1.60 from this point. You know, you got to, wait, you're going to go four or five percent? If it goes four or five percent up at the open, I probably don't want to short it. So now I go obviously to the prior day lows. It can bounce into that. And if it starts breaking away, you give up on the shorts. But based on that ASML reaction, not the report, everything about it continued to show strength. But the reaction was still downside. And unless that goes back into the green, I'm going to stay looking short chips.
[01:22:49] Speaker 4: OK, I wanted to just refresh here and have a quick look at this Fed rate watch tool. But yeah, now it's taking, oh, there it is, taking a minute to load. So all right, here we go, man. Yesterday, this was 80 percent chance of no rate hike. Yesterday, 80 percent. That's one day ago right there. 78 percent chance. Now, today, 48 percent chance. What a change that CPI number has just given to us right there. So as I was saying before, man, it's not a great opportunity, not a great time to be holding on to some of these equities, no matter what you're talking about, ASML or whatever. But yeah, that's not good. And if you go to December, there we go. Now we are officially now, I guess, the majority. I mean, it's not it's a it's a coin toss right now, whether or not we get that second rate hike come in December. So, yeah, that's going to be really, really interesting coming the ninth of December right now, back to 49 percent. And if you look right, that's four to four, 25 to four, 50 yesterday, 18 percent chance. Oh, you can't see anything because this headline is up. Maybe we get that down. Let me clear that out right there. See you pass it. Yeah. So if you just look down here, you can see it was it might be hard to see, but that's 18 percent there yesterday, 49 percent here today as the CPI story continues to be one that we need to focus on here. And, you know, if you're continuing to look at it, look at TLT right now as well as that's starting to move around. We are I could call up the 10 year. I actually don't have it over here. I have it on my other screen back there. But TLT continues to go to the downside again and again and again. So, yeah, I'm not happy with the current state of this market. NASDAQ will be only down 0.76. I think this gets a lot worse. So let's go talk about some of these memory names. We have seven, six minutes now until open.
[01:24:38] Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk here about Micron MU coming through. I mean, we still have comments from Hassett. Sharif and I were just talking off camera about his commenting on the visible strength of the economy. But MU, I mean, you mentioned here they're getting some love from Elon, but they're not getting any love here from the market because these memory names continue to get beaten up after that CXMT news that we had here over earlier this week.
[01:24:58] Speaker 2: Yeah, you're absolutely right. Today, Rosenblatt analyst here, Kevin Cassidy, he wanted to chime in on the issue. He has some thoughts. I'm just going to repeat some of his thinking here. Look, he says, look, great technological achievement that you're able to stack these, I think, horizontally or vertically or whatever to kind of sidestep the EUV machine from ASML. And this is exactly why this technological achievement by CXMT was achieved, because they couldn't use the EUV. The EUV machine for the regular processing. So they had to find a different technical way that the credit to them there. But this is almost like a paper tiger, because we haven't seen anything publicly in terms of specs, speeds, yield metrics. So we're just kind of going on what they're telling us. No verified, you know, assessment by a third party, anything like that. So we have to take their word for it. And then the other part is the thing that I really pounded the table on yesterday. Look, this is a Chinese company, man. And, you know, whether or not they're prohibited now from dealing with the hyperskillers, which are not, unless the hyperskillers are going to do something defense related or national security related. But at a moment's notice, the Commerce Department could say, no, you can't buy from CXMT. So the geopolitics is probably front and center here more than anything else. So last but not least, this is a great technological achievement in DDR4 and DDR5. It is not for HBM high bandwidth memory. And that's the high margin product. That's the product that all the hyperskillers want. So when we talk DDR4, we talk DDR5, we don't talk about the best and the greatest, right? So does that really change the CapEx landscape? Are these hyperskillers all of a sudden going to start buying DDR4 and DDR5? No, no. They need HBM. And that's not what we're talking about here.
[01:26:46] Speaker 1: So it's an interesting look here for MU and its friends. Also, Hassett saying that this month's core inflation was a blip. So make of that what you will. But we'll send you over to Neil here for Micron.
[01:26:57] Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the question everyone's sort of asking themselves is, is this different for Micron? Like, I think we're sort of past the honeymoon phase of everything being parabolic. We had that massive, also the massive is the wrong word. We had that big drawdown from the 1200 level. And again, I'm looking at a weekly chart because I think in these types of pullbacks, the weeklies are a little bit better. Is this going to be different? We've been in a channel on this weekly of higher highs and higher lows since getting to 800. You threaten to break that if you lose 900 bucks. I think that's the level of concern for Micron. Are we a stone's throw away from that today? Absolutely. That's the big level that I think if it breaks down, you can start talking about the trend being weak. But it's already pulled back so heavily, I do think. I'm not looking at DRAM today. Yesterday, I just felt in a weak market and a weak environment from memory that SK Hynix is the right way to go. I'll be the first to admit it. We shorted the pop at the open off 155 and it went to VWAP. But it ended up being a long. And I think I want to listen to the market a bit better when it comes to SK Hynix. So, yes, do I like pop and fades in places like CoreWeave and NVIDIA 230 is not going to happen. SMCI. SK Hynix into resistance. Sure. But if we come back at 10.30, 11 o'clock, and all we've done is bounce VWAP and make fresh highs, and then we're threatening to bounce VWAP and do it again, I don't think you ignore that today with the memory names. Like, that's the thing that caught me. I've got it. I didn't mind the successful early shorts, but it was not recognizing when these things turned into a long a little bit later on. It's one thing to have a direction that you like, take advantage of it when it makes sense. But when it starts telling you that it's going in the other way, then probably more willing and flexible to flip at some point in the midday to looking at longs on SK Hynix. But I just think the same playbook as yesterday because all the reasons why I thought it was a short or they were shorts, they're all still very valid here, if not more so today.
[01:29:05] Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to choose DRAM. I mean, you know, a name we talk about, you know, DCAing or whatever into the banks. Like, I really think that memory is something that, if I remember correctly, we all need for this AI build out. So, you know, DRAM is there, should be something good. I don't mind buying this. I thought maybe Micron was going to be the best name to look at there. But, oh, see, I tape in MU and then, oh, man, there's something. What's a mess? Yeah, no, it came up, DRAM was the first one that came up there. Yeah, so Micron dipping down in, we're still way, we already looked at this yesterday, we're still well away from the 200 period moving average. So, you know, in this little bit of a bloodbath that may happen in the market with the rates going where they are, I think Micron's a buy with a minute left. Let's go talk about metals and then we're ready to rock and roll.
[01:29:52] Speaker 1: Why are we talking about metals? Because CPI came in hotter than expected across the board. I mean, we have Kevin Hassett basically saying this is just kind of a blip, the Fed shouldn't react yet. But, I mean, metals certainly are reacting here, again, to harder than expected, especially year-over-year CPI. You've got that 2.6% here for, you know, some of the, one of the prints, you had that 3.7% for the other print. It's a bad look.
[01:30:14] Speaker 2: It is a bad look. And when we have higher yields, we have lower metal prices because these things don't pay any yield, right? These are non-yielding assets and there's an opportunity cost here. How much do you get for buying a non-yielding asset versus how much are you losing if you don't get that treasury that's giving you essentially 5% risk-free, Adaira? We're 27% off the highs on gold, 53% off the highs in silver.
[01:30:36] Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a bad look here. And, again, hot CPI day. Good luck to all metals. Thoughts?
[01:30:42] Speaker 5: I thank you there, Adaira. With 10 seconds to go, first thing, if SLV sees 50, that's a support level. That would be a name to look for a reversal. We like those little trend breaks. And if that does get another couple of percentage points to the downside, that will be a play that we look for right away off of the bat. I know we didn't really talk about the, well, we did. We didn't really focus in too much on NVIDIA. It's going to show this one down one point. I like 230 for a short there. But, again, for all of these names, I think looking at the volume weighted average price on the way back upside, if we're even able to get back to the upside, it's going to be the key. First thing that just happened is NVIDIA just broke the lows, the Qs just broke down underneath these lows, these CPI lows. We're still very much in trend down mode whatsoever. I had one long written down. It was Alibaba. So, if this can get back above VWAP, I'd take a shot there. It was the glasses with Baba.
[01:31:36] Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, that's right. Yeah, I don't mind it. I mean, we have one.
[01:31:38] Speaker 5: Not that I love the glasses, but.
[01:31:40] Speaker 4: I don't love the glasses idea. I really actually, I don't like the glasses idea. I don't like it for meta. I don't like it for anybody. But, yeah, so 355 was what we wrote down for Google. It's a little too early to probably, you know, be really focused on these names right now for alongside trade. So, we'll take a quarter of a unit right now. We'll see if we can get something out near 50s. But, you know, just trying to give this one maybe down to 354, like where did we close yesterday on Google? It was upside. They had some good stories today, of course, with Google. What I wrote down was, oh, yeah, they're advancing new AI models and whatnot in Europe. Good deal there for them. So, yeah, 354, where did we close? We like to see red on the candles there. So, you've got to break through 354 there on Google. And I think it's worth buying a little bit of these dips, but still understanding that, man, it's early right here for Google. So, 353.99 will be our stop, and we'll try to get a little bit more down. Oh, we did get a 50 print there. Okay, so we'll go one for one right there so far. But, you know, still more to come here on Google. We're long right now, 355.20. So, let's see if it can go up to the upside. But that's a play that I liked. And the other one was Corweave short. We paid for that. So, let's go have a quick look to see. Wow, okay. Now, Corweave's down now 8%. Not 10%. What am I talking about? We were down 4 when we started. We were down 8 when they called it to us. But now, Corweave getting absolutely punked to that downside. Right here on CPI, nice move up. And guess what we bounced off of again? It looks like 535 or so was the bounce spot there for the 10-year. It was 533. Now coming back in. So, maybe the market does have a little bit of legs back up to the upside if we can control these rates a little bit. So far, so good. 55 cents now in the money with Google. Could we have our first dollar club winner of the day? It might be small, but there it is, man. There we go, man. We are doing it again right here. Let's see if we can get going on Google. 355, the number one trade on the sticky note. And there it is. We have it. And welcome to a dollar right there, guys. The trader is trading again. It's Google to the upside. Let's see what winds up happening here. Neil's got Baba. We like that for the glasses.
[01:33:43] Speaker 5: Well, I don't actually like the glasses. I think the glasses are a... Fuck yeah. I think that's a precarious product, but it doesn't really matter what I think. I just like the price action, what Baba did yesterday. I know we shorted Baba yesterday, but overall, it was a big-time buy into $111.50. So, we're longer than 12. It did just get up to $112.50, but didn't take it. We're going to look for this to get back, hold the lows, try to get back into the highs. So, SMCI, that'll be a disappointment. If you just short it where it lies, obviously, the stock just dropped another dollar here, now down 4%. Yeah, this one's bleeding. I'm not really seeing an opportunity to get into the short here on SMCI. So, I'm trying to be very patient with this one, because that is the name I like, short. For whatever reason, Intel's going higher. I'm not really sure what the deal is with Intel. But when the market catches a bit of a bid, these guys are back above the $100 level, which has been a good over-under for INTC. We didn't talk about crypto. Obviously, like everything else, it's going to be relatively weak. I do like Bitcoin at the $83,000 level if it can hold, and that's this $47 spot right in here. But I play it as over-under. If you get a topping tail, we're going to look for a reversal in that bad boy. So, just BABA, SMCI, as I said, really just waiting for it to try to, I mean, even attempt to bounce. I'm just not sure you can short it down here. Like, this in BAC and CoreWeave, like, what are you going to do? It's just so far down and bleeding at this point that you can't really rush into the short. So, I'm going to fight a sneeze here.
[01:35:12] Speaker 4: All right, yeah, no problem. $2 now as we go on Google. We'll hope that BABA can get going in good little look there. We'll have to look at maybe some bank names as well. But, you know, well-extended out now. We still have half of this trade on board. I'm going to punch out a little bit more. We'll wait for three. We don't have $57,000, but there it goes there. Yeah, look, this was our number one idea. If you're following, if you follow people for trade ideas, why not give this a little bit of a shout right there? There it is. Your number one trade of the day was Google. Oh, $335, oops. It's $3.55 long. I've got to actually edit that. But $3.55 long there on Google. We got it, and it's going upside. So, we like that stock. Let's see where it winds up. Going from here, $3.55 long. We just got out at $3.50. I mean, that was $2. We just got out at $3.57. So, we're going to look there again. BAC was a bleed. We sort of looked at that earlier. Bouncing off $50 could be there. The bond's coming back in just a bit. So, that's not great. That's good for us. But the market also coming back in, not good right there. All right, man. Now we're officially $2. I'm going to take another piece right there on Google at $357.30. I mean, we're trying to ring some registers right here, and we're doing it on the upside with Google. DRAM and IBIT. Oh, I like the IBIT short there today. What did I write down here? $47.25. I mean, yeah, we got to get back up there, man. So, we'll see. That's sort of where yesterday's area was. But $47.25 and change there for IBIT. Google's coming back in. Like I said, some of these NASDAQ is a little long in the tooth right now. That move gets rejected pretty good there on the upside, as people, like we were just saying, like, why is the market going up right there? But, yeah, making a move back in. Still watching this 10-year makes me think that everything's okay. But Google pulling back just a bit. We are out of 75%, only a quarter left right now on Google. So, we're going to keep on looking at that. You know, Staples probably. Walmart probably doing better. Yeah, there it goes. Up 115. I mean, this is the other thing. We talked about Walmart down here at 103, 104. You just had that gift, Walmart. Shout out to Joe over there. Walmart. One, two, three, four, five. Like, big-time extension there for Walmart on the way back up. So, we like the way that stock is looking today. That's Walmart. Congratulations, anybody in that one. Yeah. GME, right? More shares being bought. Yeah. So, there we go, man. Up another 2% GME. Look at that, man. 18 to 27. You want to talk about me sitting in banks and getting absolutely destroyed? Look what's happening to GameStop right here. Obviously, GameStop a much better investment than banks, right? But there it goes all the way to 28 and change right now. GME. Just if you're extending it out, this may be a level. This goes all the way back to last year, October. So, watch out for 28 bucks. Congratulations to all you. Here, we have something for that. Yeah. No, no, not Bitcoin. Not Bitcoin. To this. These meme stocks right here. There it goes. You have AMC on there. But you got to have diamond hands, as some roaring cat one time said. But there goes Google, man. We got some good hands on this one. Back up through 357.
[01:38:15] Speaker 5: Yeah, 357. We got a great look on Alphabet. We're finally getting short on BAC today. Oh, that's right. I muted myself for the sneeze. My bad. We're back into our first short BAC. But unfortunately, Baba, we get a little bit gritty on the upside. And it breaks out that low. So, a little bit of greed. Didn't take it when it gave you 30, 40 cents. But again, to me, if you're risking underneath the low and like 70 cents, 80 cents, a dollar, like taking 20, 30 cents doesn't make a heck of a lot of sense. So, we are in a BAC and still waiting on SMCI to do any kind of a pop. BAC gave us that 50 area in VWAP. SMCI is now down another percent and just continuing to flush. So, it looks like, like the right name short, just unable to get it is going to be the fail. And you can probably put a little bit of that on CoreWeave as well. Like, CoreWeave has only dropped off the open. It's just cratering at this point. So, you're down 13%. There is a point at which I go into the mode of, I got to look for a reversion because it's fallen too far. Yesterday, most of the first 5, 10-minute reversion trades were fantastic. But those were going short. Today, it's trying to find a spot for a reversion long. 65 is as good a price as any on CoreWeave. But down 13%. I'm not trying to short this sucker at the lows. I think that's almost crazy talk here. 13%. 13 and still bleeding. Like, that's the thing. It's a very heavy bid. Bottom tail candles, trend breaks. Those are the only ways I'm even thinking about going in the other direction on this. It's one thing to have shorted the pops yesterday. It's another thing trying to go long this day.
[01:39:56] Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, I'm definitely with you on that one right there. I mean, I wish we had sort of gotten into CoreWeave. But, all right. NASDAQ fade. I'm just reading my own notes here. NASDAQ fading. Any bumps? I don't know if that's going to happen. DRAM, 52 and a quarter. I don't know about that. IBIT, 47.25. I mean, that would be the one that we'd want to look at again. And just looking here, again, CPI, a little hotter. I think it was, what, 0.6 versus 0.5? No, 0.3 versus 0.2 month over month.
[01:40:22] Speaker 1: Yeah, so both those are right. It was 0.6 here for month over month. And then core month over month, 0.3.
[01:40:28] Speaker 4: Okay, good. So, both are right. We like that. But look what's happening right now. Nice little fade off in the market. So, in the bond market. So, we like that on the 10-year coming back in. It's making me hold. Google. We just got out at 57. 57. 50. Good move there for Google. I mean, we've almost, we haven't made our day because we only had a quarter of a unit. Because we took it immediately. But, again, it is off the note of stickiness. So, oh, Palantir. Let me go have a quick look at that one. Good shout out there, Nick Graham. Yeah, like, again, a huge name. Support it. Wow, support it down there at 205, eh, Nick? Oh, man, that was a good one. Yeah, so, you know, bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, boom. So, right now, I know all longs haven't necessarily worked. But if you were a little patient with the long, maybe, you know, maybe you'd still be able to hold on to it there. All right, let's look at Tesla. We haven't looked at Tesla in a while. So, let's have a quick look at that. 367. Wow, that's a little low, isn't it, for Tesla? Yeah. So, down 2%. Here we go. This is another name that I just said. If you've been patient with the longs, maybe you got something. But not with Tesla, man. That is falling to the wayside right now. TSLA. Oh, my God. 250 now? We're going to take something else out right now on Google. This is starting to get real nice, like, right there. Okay, you finally got BAC on. By the way, SpaceX, man, I mean, still cratering. It does touch down at 152. I think it's a buy near 150. What am I putting a little bit more money into that as well? But, yeah, SpaceX is at 1.7, 1.9% right now.
[01:41:59] Speaker 5: I was looking at the one, I think it was like 148 or something on SpaceX where I was looking for the stink bid. But that was when I was looking at a daily chart there. So you are getting the curl in the market, and one of these two names is depressed between SMCI and our not-good friend, CoreWeave, is looking like they could be putting in a turn. SMCI has a bottoming tail candle, but see how it's giving it up? Doesn't want to buy higher. That would be one to look for the reversion on, given the way this market's trying to come up. And then, obviously, nothing is falling farther or faster than CoreWeave. It just tagged 67. If it can close this candle green, holding 67.3, that can be a trend break potential there on SMCI. Or, sorry, on CoreWeave. BAC is holding under VWAP, so the market's bouncing. But this hole, I'm trying to get filled at the volume weighted average price. I have been unable to do so. So far, we're short at 50. VWAP's at 50.25. That's where we're trying to get filled and play it to the low. The fact that it's not bouncing with the market for now is a good sign. But it's really more about what's going on with CoreWeave here. CoreWeave and SMCI, the two big ones to the downside. Again, if I'm playing a reversion, it's only 9.42. This could bleed for another 20 minutes. This could bleed for another 30 minutes. You just have to try to pick your spots like Cerebrus yesterday if it's going to be this bad in said downside. NVIDIA, nowhere near the levels I want to be short that stock. I feel like there's going to be better opportunities NVIDIA later in the day. I just heard VSTM.
[01:43:32] Speaker 4: Oh, shoot. That's what I got to do. I got to open up my...
[01:43:33] Speaker 5: Yeah, we have a halter on VSTM. That was bleeding all morning. This would have been one of those... Well, we know Luis likes he's under VWAP. I'm sure he would have been looking at VSTM if it had been more volume. But a halted upside after plunging a dollar. Now halted up. Tap is 7.90. Not terribly exciting in terms of a gapper because it's only 5%. I think you're looking at Greenland and Bending Spoons would be the big time runners this morning if you're interested. All right, come on. Give me this fill at VWAP and then get to the low. Fill the VWAP, then get to the low, BAC.
[01:44:10] Speaker 4: Exactly. Let's go. Yeah, BAC is a good trade there. We'll see if it can hold that 50. Obviously, the short side. I'm looking to get out some Google just above 358. I mean, it's now at 358. So I like the stock, but maybe getting a little carried away there all the way back. Google now up 1%. So let's exit out of a little bit more. There we go. We get some 65s. We'll get a little bit out more right now. The bank stocks today, obviously interesting. Mark and Stanley battling back. So definitely a good look there. Still down 2 plus percent, but not down 3 or whatever it was there off the open. We really got rinsed there down to 177. That would have been a good dip opportunity. But if you're going to play the banks, please remember what happened yesterday where Goldman Sachs came out and absolutely smoked the market with their report and then got smoked. So nice to see Goldman up right there today and JP Morgan as well. Let's have a quick look. Are they up? I don't care. I don't know. No, still down half. So it looks like Goldman is being rewarded a little bit for their quarter. So nice to hear there. Goldman Sachs upside, JP Morgan downside. Neil's obviously in BAC. So that's back to 50. So that's good. And then the name that I wanted to dip by, by the way, we just got that level. Wow, man. Google, just an absolute monster right there. Just took out three. We just got 358.10s right there on Google or 358.09s. So that was a good little level there to sort of try to support. So here we go, man. We're still up 200, 200, 276 cents right now on Google. The only trade that I'm in so far there today. Looking for some more opportunities, man. That Bending Spoons, wow. Man, my, it's just, it's great when your kids are smarter than you. That's fantastic. But it just keeps on happening. And I got to fix it. Like, Baxter had been touting this name since its IPO. And it had a great dip by opportunity. And actually came right in to a support and resistance level there of Bending Spoons of 32 bucks. Now, today, it's just up 44%. This recent IPO getting some Berkshire love right there. Again, man, trust the kids. They know what they're talking about. What's up, Tiffany? Hope you're doing well over there. And we're going to go back over to Adara right about now.
[01:46:18] Speaker 1: ASML Earnings Day 1. We're getting comments coming in from CEO Christophe Fouquet. He's saying that they do not see Zeiss, one of their suppliers, as a bottleneck in 2028, saying the main challenge overall with suppliers is to make sure they can meet the 30% increase annually. He does say, though, that the company has confidence that the supply chain can meet more than 30% growth for fiscal 2028. They're currently in fiscal 26. Back to you.
[01:46:43] Speaker 5: I think with Bending Spoons, and thank you, Adara, one of the things to consider with that is the old Berkshire, if they get up to that much, you're like, okay, well, they're going to buy even more. Yes. That's just how they roll. I don't know that you can think of it the same way, to be real. We'll see. I think that's going to be interesting. NVIDIA finally popped down through VWAP. It broke the half dollar. I just got filled at the evens, and I'm looking at LOD. But as long as this 226 holds on, I think we'll give it the shot off. VWAP, Core Weave, you mentioned that as the reversion play. There's your first green candle in Core Weave. Going to give the stop right at the current bar low. Sorry, the prior bar low. Now another three minutes into it. And VWAP's at 69.5. So the 68.5, 69.5, we're looking to play back into those levels. Again, it's a reversion trade. First green candle. Try it for the long side. If that doesn't work, then wait for a bottoming tail or maybe a trend break, something along those lines. BAC is still sort of meandering to the lows. I still haven't been filled at VWAP. I only have the 50 fill. I haven't been able to do anything higher. So it is working its way back into the downside here on BAC. Seven and a half points down. I feel like the other banks have a much better and much more reasonable case to get back into the green. Like if you tell me Morgan Stanley goes green today, like I don't think I'm surprised. If you tell me BAC goes green today, then yeah, color me incredibly surprised if that ends up being the case. Like Morgan Stanley here. But I still think you should be giving these a couple of days.
[01:48:16] Speaker 4: Yeah, good look over there. We actually shorted. I think that's true as well. I'm a little bit disappointed that we didn't give J&J more of a shot there. It's up a little bit. We should have bought some. I'm going to give it a couple more days, as we said there, for J&J. All right, new position alert. We've already taken 30 cents on Amazon, but we only got out of 20%. So let's see if this one wants to come back in. We just got it right there at the 200 period. You guys know the way I trade, man. Support and resistance, 200 period moving average. We're all over that. But we're going to wait for a little bit more, obviously, as this day is still pretty young. Again, the 10-year is still coming back in. So all right, I just said we would wait for a little bit more. Maybe we won't. I'm going to put another bid down there just for 10% down there again near O's. It may come back up. I do want to short this into 260. Let's just see if it gets going Amazon. It looks like it's trying to go right now. So did we just get it? No, we did not. I'm going to cancel my 50. Actually, I'll put a little bit more on here at 50. But what I'm really looking for is a little bit higher. Into 260 would be our stop. So we want to put on almost like not a max pain, but we want to put on a position if we get closer to 260, if that's what we're going to stop out. So let's just see if this move is real here in the NASDAQ for now. Right back up to VWAP. There it goes. OK, so, you know, this Amazon trade, although right now we're now, whoopsies, we are now $4 in right now. It's a chicken dinner winner on our good friend Google. So we might as well, you know, take that one in again. And as we'd written down here on our note that we had Google, we got to refresh it because we actually edited it. We had Google written down there as a three. Oh, that's the wrong one. As a $3.55 long. So right into there, there's our note, $3.55 long. It came in. There's $3.55. Unfortunately, we don't have, you know, our hero size on there at all, but it's a good one there. Google, $3.55 and change. That's the only trade that I have. We're working with Amazon right now as it's trying to come back in just a little bit. That was a good reload there on Amazon. Let's go. Again, man, spin the money round and round. As Amazon, we just got out again at $2.59 flat. So yeah, man, the market's making some moves here today. And thankfully, Amazon just gave us that because this is a wild trader, man. Let's just see what winds up happening. We've got to stop out at $2.60. Right now, being short Amazon, we'll wait to see what the 10-year winds up doing. But long Google has been an absolute monster, man. Four bucks in. Amazon waiting to get a little profitable on that one. We've taken some out, but we're waiting for more here on AMZN. A lot of people looking at Palantir still, I see.
[01:50:45] Speaker 5: Yeah, well, if you're looking at anything related to that's going to follow the market, keep an eye particularly on the TLT here. We've just gone right back into $78 and the volume weighted average price. That's exactly where the NASDAQ just crested to. So this is an opportunity where I'm looking at the log that I'm in. And if you're not going to extend through $68 and a half here, CoreWeave, then this is probably headed right back low. I know I wanted to be short the stock, but if the first thing it does is plunge that far, I'm usually looking for that reversion trade. NVIDIA, as the market's at VWAP, it holds onto that $26. We short that next little pop. I want to try to get some out because as market breaks out, this could turn into a reversal play. But we're still sitting bid VWAP, bid lows. We got the 25s out already. BAC is still – hey, look at that. There's a stock BAC on the CN that's not Bank of America. That's hilarious. Yeah, I just pulled it up. It's some penny stock, apparently. So BAC never gets me filled at VWAP. It tags VWAP at the open. I short it back at 50, but I was also trying to short it right here on the second bar. Never got filled. But it's back in at the low of the day, down 8%. $1.2 billion fine, everybody, which they got the money. But they missed on revenue anyways. Regardless of CPI, these guys missed on their revenue. They were the one bank that you couldn't turn to saying, oh, but it was a good report. Can't say that with BAC. No, I was looking – ooh, XLF. Oh, I like this question. Ours are the six. Are we buying the dip on hardware or software? So let's – you can almost simplify that. Do you like Micron or do you like Microsoft would be the question. I would make the argument that – well, I feel like Microsoft's a bad example because Microsoft hasn't dipped. Microsoft's too good. If Microsoft dips, I think you've got to like this one because of the moat around them. But if you're just talking about overall software and you don't get to pick and choose, I'd rather buy the dip in hardware. But if you're picking best of the best, I mean, Microsoft's been absolutely chilling. Maybe Palantir would be an example for software.
[01:52:57] Speaker 4: Palantir's great. I mean, Palantir's at all-time highs. But that's at highs, too. I think hardware's not even – I think you – I know you had an example there with Micron. You know, that's obviously a very specific hardware. I think, you know, looking at like looking at maybe a Marvell or something like that, that's more – wow. That could be one. Okay, man. We're almost a dollar – we're dollar club – we're dollar club again right there on Amazon. So nice move in. We got you just realizing that – wow. Okay. Good move there on Amazon. We just hit that, Joe. Yeah, but there it goes, man. Nice move to the downside. Thanks, Joe. Appreciate that. $359.50 downside. There it goes, man. And so, you know, we've ho-hummed this move, right? That was $4 right there. I don't know if Amazon's going to give it to us, but I'm glad that we sure talked about it right there on the short side for Amazon. So, so far, so good there as that continues to bleed down. Now a buck and change. And there it is, man. We're getting very, very close now to our goal. So, let's start to just sort of chop out a little bit here. Amazon. Wow. There it goes. Now a buck 35 and going lower. Amazon with the market heading lower. That looks like that was a good trade to short the NASDAQ. I mean, who knows where we're going to go from here. It's only two bucks. Amazon could get lower. It could not. But, again, we're trading props. So, you know, anytime you can get a couple dollars on a trade, I mean, that's the bonus. So, we'll always scalp a little bit out as we go, and then we'll be there to try to grab, you know, a much bigger runner there. And I think we might have done a decent job here with Amazon. So, that's going to be a good one as we just get $258 again. So, nice move to the downside right now. Starbucks, Netflix. Oh, we did talk about J&J. We always get questions about, like, oh, you know, what is the position that maybe, you know, you're into in your long term? I'm into J&J. And it just came into a good price level yesterday on that imbalance, so, sorry, on that earnings report. And we'll have to wait to see if $250 winds up holding there for J&J. But so far, so good. Yeah, the Palantir-Microsoft discussion there I think is a good one. I like the IGV if you're actually going to play software. I mean, that has them all in there. But, yeah, this is what I'm talking about if you're too concentrated into AI. Marvell, downside right here.
[01:55:09] Speaker 5: I kind of feel like I like it rather individual software because the IGV has too many dogs in it.
[01:55:15] Speaker 4: Yep, exactly.
[01:55:15] Speaker 5: That's kind of my thing. I think you get in good with Palantir if it dips. And that was the problem. I'm still trying to think of a software name that's on a dip that I like but can't seem to find it. But it is the dips that are winning right now. It's been kind of a fleshy market. I still maintain that the seller at $226 on NVIDIA, if it does obey that level, I think you can have a good reversal. But just see, like the open range, that's three straight, almost three straight candles in a row failing that $26 and only into $25. So we're able to scalp to VWAP, then the $25, the half dollar, then the even dollar. And then we'll continue to look for that low a day. But this is the one name that's given me that reversal vibe that's not at the lows. Coreweave, it played off of that first green candle. Now it's just going sideways. It's still holding the higher low, so it hasn't stopped at the bottom. But the thing about reversion trades, you kind of want them to go right away. The fact that it already pulled back in here, if we see up top again, I'm relieving more pressure and then getting out as well. I want to make sure I cancel. VWAP's always going to be a moving target. So now VWAP sits at about $69 change. Still like it as a target up there, but I want to release some pressure on that bad boy. BAC continues to fall, now $49.50. Oh, good. Nice. This stock stinks. But the other side of this coin is, hey, I'll be the first to admit, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley didn't just lose the bid now. It's sitting at $180. That's underneath support, underneath the 200 period moving average. Like this is starting to look, starting to look bad. If it wasn't for the monthly chart, these banks are, broken's the wrong word. I'm not going to say they're broken, but they're bleeding badly today. Three and a half points on Morgan's beat. Remember, they beat and Goldman beat yesterday. Like both of the trading banks beat and both of them are down pretty heavily. You really have to hope that the dip buyers start to materialize. Because the usual buy in a day or two, it's not working.
[01:57:13] Speaker 4: No, we're, okay. Our short is printing on Amazon, but Google's come all the way back. So we're going to try it again here at $355. I mean, if it breaks lower, we already have where our stop's going to be. We can go get out at $354.50, basically. I'm actually going to change that. It was $354.00. But now that we have that predetermined bottom, we can, and we pretty much got out of everything. So we're just, you can see where we averaged back in. Now our average price is $355.40. So we almost had nothing left of that print. And now we take the average price rate into now. So, you know, hopefully we can get a nice little move higher here. Good averaging so far. I mean, our best fill on that particular trade was $40, $355.40. So there it is, another $0.50 there on Google as it's trying to come back up. Maybe we do get that move. I mean, if we can get $356.00 one more time, I think we can put another offer there. And then let's go to $356.50, which, I mean, I know these kind of like seem pie in the sky. Like, I don't know if this market's actually going to rip back through any of these levels again. You know, so we're going to sit at $355.00 one more time. We're not going to give it all back. I mean, that would be silly. But we're going to wait here to see what we wind up doing. If we do get a little bit of a lower bid coming through on Google, we would, you know, like to trade that. All right, Amazon, take advantage, man. I mean, we're getting dip bought in Google. So, you know, if we want it to work, let's let it work. So we'll get out some more Amazon there. This is the lowest we've been able to get it out. Yes, go, Amazon. Crank lower would be nice. So Amazon now $2.00 in the money. So that's going to be a good one. Shout out to Ozan right there as we respect what's happening in Amazon down to the downside. And we wait to get maybe a little bit more shares involved in Google. But, yeah, did SoFi, I mean, oh, God, take a drink of water. Man.
[01:58:56] Speaker 5: That's all you need to know about SoFi.
[01:58:58] Speaker 4: What a train wreck. Down 4% right now is SoFi getting worse as we sit here. So, yeah, I'm not too pleased with what's happening with SoFi right now.
[01:59:07] Speaker 5: I know. And I promise when things calm down, I want to get to SoFi. And now would be that moment. But if the shorts are going to be working, I can slap the fail on the reversion to core weave. That just broke the low. So yesterday, it was such a different story going short yesterday on moves to the upside than trying a reversion long. It barely got off the schneid. NVIDIA just, you probably would have seen NVIDIA just got down into that low of the day. The thing about NVIDIA, I didn't zoom out for this, you're also playing with yesterday's lows. So when it's getting to the bottom, the NASDAQ has already more than broken through the lows. And NVIDIA is just at that 224 bottom. So I am kind of anticipating that you could get a bounce of support on NVIDIA. It's a mean reversion trade sort of at that VWAP to the low of the day, which we usually like. But to talk about SoFi, if there's a fail to be had, we've been talking about the $15 level for a while on SoFi. And yesterday, it's like, oh, well, you know, it usually bounces off this level.
[02:00:07] Speaker ?: Oh, boy.
[02:00:08] Speaker 5: Today, this rallied to $15 exactly at the open, went about two or three cents, and then defecated all over itself. There was probably not an easier, forget about everything else, and just short the 15 break on SoFi. Because I bet you, you could have had 98s or 99s. It kind of sucks. I was hoping it would hold this level again, but SoFi has broken down. I, you know, I'm not really giving up on it in the long term, but trimming some is going to be a bit of a decision here, at least for myself. BAC, let's go back to what we're actually in. BAC is holding the low. And if I'm moving the target on VWAP, now if it bounces to VWAP, it would actually be a reload at 50, because it's down another point here. If BAC goes 10% down, I'd probably look for a reversion. I mean, it's a bank, but it was astutely pointed out by one of the viewers, which is true. They don't do buybacks within the first 30, within 30 days of earnings. Right. So that's one of the things that could be holding them back, because all the banks, you know, after the recent stress test, they can all do some buybacks. You're going to have to wait them. You're going to have to wait on those, unfortunately.
[02:01:20] Speaker 4: All right. We, you know, we're just playing off ideas that we already have. So $3.55, we just got filled. We just got out for another 50 cents there on Google. Like, we're just kind of stacking it up. I mean, I would love for this move to come back in. You can see down here on our 10-year, it's kind of just hovering, not doing a whole heck of a lot. We're now at 530. So, yeah, man, I mean, the NASDAQ is right back to its lows and not looking like it wants to get any better. So, yeah, we're a little hesitant to average too much into this at this point, right? We're taking up profit where profit lies. It's a CoreWeave story today. I mean, we could talk about banks. We could talk about the NASDAQ. I mean, obviously, CPI is the story, but CoreWeave has an individual name. I mean, just crazy. Like, next time, like, this is just one of those beat-up stories that can't get out of its own way, I guess. And now today, they're going to have to raise more money they're looking at. So, yeah, CoreWeave down 15% and absolutely getting washed. So, I don't, you know, if this is a name that you like, it's right. Today, I was like, oh, yeah, you know, we'll see 70 today. You know, and that was when it was at 75 when we made that comment earlier when we first went on the show. Now it's at 66 and doesn't look like it wants some pounds. It's not just them. So, yeah, well, Nebius, of course. Nebius is down 10 points, too. Yeah, basically the same company. So, I mean, if they're having to raise, someone else is going to have to raise as well. But, you know, NASDAQ downside right here. Maybe we get a little bit of a bounce. We'll take a little bit more Google down here at 55 because it's our playbook. And we want to make sure that we follow said playbook. So, if this one wants to rip back into the 40s, why not just start to scalp out again on Google? But, yeah, you're right here. There it goes. It's going to break and we're going to be out. No, almost out right there on Google on a break of 354. This move is really getting extended. I'm actually going to stop that trigger right there. Let it go a little bit more against us. Let's go to that three because now we've taken some profit. And this is a very dangerous day because of what day it is. It's CPI. So, you are going to get a little more whiplash than potentially you may have in the past. Say that again. Yeah. So, I mean, yeah, that's an easy one to say, I guess. So, we're along right now at 355 flat. So, let's give this a little bit of room here to see if it does want to mature upside right now. That's going to be Google. But, you know, our stop is for a dollar loser. So, we'll celebrate Dollar Club and then we'll let you know if this one breaks it, it gets back into a dollar against us. But right now, Google has broken through that 355 and starting to go lower. Hey, maybe they're taking profits on names that are up and just hitting them lower. So, you know, good. I mean, I know BAC is going down.
[02:03:51] Speaker 5: But if you look at this, the TLT is actually making higher lows than just broke through VWAP. Like, from the bottom, we're seeing rates kind of go the other way and back off a little bit. So, I don't, like, I'm not really thinking short, like, short re-entries if this breaks the downtrend. If anything, like, there should be some more bottoms that are interesting to be able to find. Intel is at exactly $100 and making higher lows. So, I'm trying to find something, if I'm looking for a long off the TLT, that is actually making higher lows. And Intel is the only thing that stands out over $100. And it had a move at the open, which I'm not sure what was up with. It just kind of went when the market was not doing much of anything. But trend up from the open on Intel. So, I'm going to try that one in front of $100 with this strength that we're actually seeing in the TLT, believe it or not.
[02:04:42] Speaker 4: Yeah, let's go, man. We got a big one on right now, like a real big one. Let's see what Google wants to do, man. That's $355. We're just getting it out at $355.50. I think the trade, I'm trying to, like, sit on my hands a little bit here. I think the trade, because we've just gotten out, we got out at 25%. I think the trade is fade pops. Like, we've talked about that, see? So, we've talked, now I've got to get my hands ready to go again. We've talked about trying to fade these pops a little bit, and we're getting one now in Google. So, you know, if we're able to, we should take some more out. Okay, let's take some out even right here at 25s if we can get it. But, yeah, we shouldn't be too, like, weary of these moves, because there it is right back in now on Google. So, yeah, there it goes. Okay, we tried to get a little bit of a bigger winner there by holding on to that, but it looks like it does stop dead in its tracks at $355.55. The market looks like now it wants to retrace lower. So, yeah, man, I mean, Amazon, we can't, you know, we can't forget about this position, because we've still got this one on. So, we'll get a little bit out now as it continues to fall through. That, of course, is Amazon. I'm bidding 46s. I just pushed bid enter. Maybe we should have punched a little higher there. There we go. Oh, did we get that filled? No, we did not. What did I say we were bidding on Amazon? Oh, 46. Okay, so one more move down would be nice. To get that filled, 47s, 46s. There it is. So, we get that. So, that's a nice move there on Amazon as we'll capture that profit. And again, look, 200 period moving average. There's the pop. There's the fade. I mean, that's exactly what we want to do. So, I don't know why we sort of got away from Google there doing that. But let's see what now winds up happening. Our out is $354 breaking. Good question there in the chat. What's up to Losef? I don't know. You said, what's going on with SpaceX? I mean, I can't imagine SpaceX doing very well in a day like today. But only down 2%. Maybe it's doing better, actually. That's not bad. No, that's what I was going to say. Maybe it's actually doing better than I thought right now. But yeah, SpaceX downside right now. And yeah, not doing great there with SPCX. But not too bad either. Only down 153. Just with raising more money, right? We saw Corwee getting smacked. So, I just sort of thought the same for SpaceX.
[02:06:45] Speaker 5: No one's going to be happy. Like today, like who was it? It was IonQ. Yeah. Yeah, it looks like you picked the wrong day for an offering, right? Like it's just, it's not going to bode well for you if you need to raise money today. And you couldn't look. At the end of the day, it is what it is. It's not what you can do about that CPI print. But, you know, like you said, if you're going to the debt markets today or you're diluting today, you're probably going to get punished. I don't think 2% down on SpaceX with its valuation is, that's actually not as bad as I would have expected. I would have expected 4 or 5. Like Intel is down 2%. SpaceX only 2 is not that bad. It is time to go up to the desk. I know we're going over there to Adara as the NASDAQ keeps making lows, despite the fact that you are seeing rates back off. It's not helping the market though.
[02:07:39] Speaker 1: We have the spy hanging out here near Lowe's. Here's why. At 8.30 a.m., crazy to think it was just over an hour and a half ago, we got this CPI data. So to go over CPI again, CPI month over month, 0.6%. That is going to be in line with estimates of 0.6%, but it's going to be hotter than the previous print. CPI year over year, 3.7% versus 3.6% estimate, also hotter than the previous print. 0.3% for core CPI month over month. This is in line with the previous print, but it's hotter than the 0.2% expected. Core CPI year over year, 2.6%. That's going to be hotter than the 2.4% prior print and the 2.5% estimate. So that's the deal here. Let's take a look at the CME FedWatch tool while we're here with you guys. 53% chance here of a hold. So we're still leaning towards a hold in October, but the margin by which we're leaning onto a hold is getting thinner and thinner, with 47% of participants expecting a hike. Now, if you look forward, and if I press the right button here, if you look forward to December, things get incredibly interesting. Guys, we have a 52% chance of a 25 basis point hike and a 41% chance of a 50 basis point hike. So the market's basically saying if we don't get a hike in October, we might as well get a 50 basis point hike in December. And that could do a little bit more damage going off of what we've had people like Fed's hammock say, where they'd rather raise rates more gradually than all at once. We're leaning towards all at once now for December, which is a bit of an unfortunate look. Let's hear through the individual stories because we had a bevy of catalysts today, if I can pull this up. BSP are getting an influx of investment. This is a $10 million share private placement here, $33 a share for $330 million total investment here from Berkshire Hathaway. They previously invested $600 million at the company's IPO in early July, I believe July 1st, which brings their total investment in BSP to, it's pretty substantial here, guys. It's nearly a billion dollars, and it's a 4% stake. You've got BAC here, earnings day one in focus. Q3, EPS and sales, missing estimates. Last but not least, CoreWeave here to the downside. CoreWeave at low, other than the inverse Kramer effect that you have here with Jim Kramer actually speaking positively about CoreWeave. And last night, you also had CoreWeave with a catalyst. Brandon McBee, who is one of the company's co-founders, talking to Financial Times and saying the company is considering more insurance capital to fuel their AI expansion as they continue to need debt. Back to you.
[02:09:53] Speaker 4: All right. Thank you, Adara. And we come back to, again, you know, decent. I mean, we did punch out at $3.54 on Google, but then we just bought it right back, and now it's starting to go back up to the upside. Again, like $3.54, I was looking at it. You know, we had to punch out because if it keeps on going, I mean, and this is sort of the way I've been trading, and it's been really working this month, is that get out at your level, then take a breath, and try to figure out, like, is that level going to hold or what? Because, you know, what you're trying to do, especially in these kind of markets, is avoid those huge catastrophic hits, right? And so, because at any moment, anything can happen. So you've got to be very, like, see, there it goes. Like, we were just at $3.55 and a quarter or something like that. So if we don't take profit, then we don't get any profits. So we've got to make sure that we do, because remember last time it was $3.55.50, and I was like, yeah, we're getting some out here. We're going to see if there's a bigger move, but we should probably be fading pops. So there it goes, man. Now we're going to get some more out at $0.70 if we're able to on this move for Google. There's a lot of liquidity here. Look at the spread, right? The spread can open up to $0.20, $0.30 at points there. So you've got to be sitting around offering your stock, or you're not going to – like, I'm at $0.69. It's not breaking because we actually have a unit there, and I don't know. Like, we've got to hopefully – it just runs right through us, because if you're punching the spread – like, it keeps on bouncing off of me. Like, I'm at $0.69. Maybe we've got to go to something different, but right there, you've got to watch out, because if you're punching the spread, long story short, you're going to lose $0.15 or $0.20 every time. So just be careful. But remember, there is dark pool liquidity, so, you know, your broker should be routing you out, so you won't lose the complete spread, of course. But anyways, that's the story here. Let's see what winds up happening with Google. Hopefully a little bit of an upside. Amazon's bleeding all over itself, so $2.57 and change there. To take Sharif's word there, it's bleeding its own blood. But Amazon, nice downside. Not sure what else it will bleed. Yeah, I don't know either. It has – oh, that's a Sharifism. We only have one – two trades on so far. I keep closing this ad down there. It's Amazon and it's Google. So two trades there. We're going to go two for two. But Google was iffy because it did break through $355, so we had to get out of that and then reload it. So, unfortunately, Google wasn't the greatest clean trade, but it was good early. I mean, if you had Google early, your day was done. I just didn't have enough shares right there. And then we gave it back. Not all of it back. We gave it back when it came back through. So, you know, be careful with Google here so far and be careful with everything. You're still net short BAC. I mean, that's probably – I guess that's working.
[02:12:19] Speaker 5: Yeah, someone asked for an update. I have a trailing stop on it at this particular point. Intel just broke the trend. It didn't break $100, but if I'm playing the trend line, then I'm moving the stop up and losing less. So I can give it to here before, but once it closes a couple of bars, tighten the stop up, there's not much to update with BAC except, you know, since the open, here's the trend all the way down. It's a pretty tight trend. It basically went from 50 down into 49 and a quarter, but it is threatening to break back upside. So I have a kind of a tight trend stop in here to take the profit that actually just triggered. And then we'll look to short the next available pop in BAC. So despite the fact that, as I was saying, you know, the TLT is bouncing higher here. It's still going, and maybe it's not going to matter. I look at the ES. I look at the NASDAQ. They're still falling. There might be opportunities when this curls a little bit to work back into something to the short side. I'm just sort of hoping we get a bit of a pop here on BAC to get back on trend. So yeah, it finally looked like it was trying to break higher, but I've gotten out only to see it go another couple of points to the downside before. But I just can't see rates recovering the way that they are without there being some kind of a dead cat bounce that you can short back into. And then the other name we were in is like NVIDIA. I haven't seen another spot to play into. I keep looking at TLT and trying to be patient to look to short another pop in here. Like everything is telling me if this is going to continue happening and there's going to be a curl and head back lower, wait for an opportunity to jump into the short and try not to short bottoms if the TLT is telling you that we're trying to put one of these like early morning reversals on. Hit F3. It's a good key to hit. That's good. You know, it's hilarious. I saw you in the chat yesterday and I never even made the connection because we were going back and forth a bit. That's a good one. Meta is churning and looking good. Good short. If you don't say which direction, I'm always assuming you mean long. But I can't imagine you're saying it's looking good long. I can't. Like everything else, this is trend down. I'd love to find something counter trend, which is strong into this weak market that's in tech. I'm just not sure you're going to find it. Like maybe it's time to look at GameStop. No, I'm being real. Like BAC, if it doesn't pop up and give me a chance for a re-entry, Ryan Cohen's buying shares at GameStop. GameStop doesn't seem to care, you know what, that the market is going down. It's just hugging VWAP this whole time. Like there's a pretty good bull flag in GameStop. And I've been trying to stay away, thinking if there's better places to go. So you know what? We'll go see what the market's going to tell us for that next bank trade. But this looks like a pretty good breakout potential. I guess it's a normal looking trade. Stock gaps up on Catalyst. Soldates off VWAP, breaks your bull flag to the upside, has a short float. You know, the stock's not going to give you know what. If the market continues down 1%, 2%, it's going to be able to do its own thing. So I'm going to put that on the side chart. Maybe it's one of those days. I said it before. When the market's really, really weak, sometimes the best longs are going to be meme-ish or small caps that are doing their own thing.
[02:15:40] Speaker 4: No, you're definitely not wrong about that one. And that's why I was like, you mentioned GameStop. I was like, yeah, hell yeah. I mean, that's probably a good one to have a look-see right there. Okay, just covering some more Amazon right now. You know, we're long Google right there at 353.80s. We'll see if that one wants to work out. But it's Amazon right now. I like that GameStop look. That is for sure. All right, let's go to DRAM a little bit and see what we'll go on over here. Sia, how are you doing?
[02:16:07] Speaker ?: I'm great.
[02:16:07] Speaker 4: It's really nice to see you.
[02:16:09] Speaker 5: Just want to hear you.
[02:16:09] Speaker 4: Okay, but here it goes upside. DRAM right now trying to go. So 51 and change. I thought she was coming on there, but she's not. All right, so 51.80, 52 bucks right there for DRAM. I mean, you're now taking out the 200-period moving average. Let's go. Like, you know, we're getting lighter on this one, man. We have about 15% left. So let's get out another piece. I'm getting the ideas that maybe the market might want to run. So let's take out some more Amazon, which we just did. And here we go, man. We're almost back into a good position here with Google. But again, like, keeps on getting faded, man. Every time it pops up, we get a little bit of a drop. So pop, drop, shut them down, and open up a shop if you want right now. But there it goes. Google. We're trying to figure this all out. Meanwhile, looking at our good friend Goldman Sachs over here, as that's just hovering around flat as well here today. So Goldman Sachs trying to do its best to make a little bit of move here. Back to the upside, 884. You're already at a BAC, so that was a great trade. And then the other name that I wanted to look at, oh, yeah, SoFi has the bleeding stopped. Because if the market's going to rebound, I mean, let's just call it like it is. I think SoFi does have an opportunity, you know, to rebound off this. But it is a falling tree down 6% right now, which was at one point a good friend of mine, SoFi. Now I hate SoFi and the Los Angeles Rams. Where's Anthony? Buy some shares, bro. Nodo's going to come in here and start to save this. I agree with you. So we'll wait to see what SoFi winds up doing there. I guess I was also wrong on Amazon because it just took another leg lower. So Amazon going lower, we'll take another bid out right now. And, yeah, I guess we're wrong, you know, Google, right to get some out there. Like, look at this. Like, this name just bang, crashed again. So it's like every, I mean, crash, I don't know. But making these moves every single time, you know, fade the pops. That's been the right recipe for success here on Google. But, you know, I'm still waiting for a bigger move. I think the futures can maybe settle down here around $30,500. We get back up to the upside. But, yeah, SoFi has been trashed. You guys are right about that one.
[02:18:09] Speaker 5: There's another trend break happening in Core Wave. It's like, do I still like it? I don't know. I should take it. If it closes, if it confirms this bar, I should take it. The other thing, I'm still looking for that reload in BAC. I mean, it's trying to go higher. So there you go. Like, it has made a bit of a temporary bottom. And it's trying to get higher. I just like it to press a little bit more to be able to jump into that short. And GameStop, the second I look at it and think it's interesting, it just goes right back. Like, it does not break out the top. It's still holding, which is fine. Like, if it holds on to VWAP, I think eventually you can get that breakout trade. But it is going to end up right back to the names that we were looking at before. So do us a favor. And I'm, again, I'm not going to, it's not to single anybody out here, but I just saw Oracle in the chat, but the dollar sign wasn't put in. Because where I was about to go to was our visualizer as I'm waiting for one of these stocks I'm watching to make another move and give us an entry. And I see Micron, Topside, SoFi. Yeah. I guarantee you SoFi is up here for interest because of how bad it's doing. And it's like, what to do with that stock next? Apple is up today. That's great. SpaceX, I think, is surprising. It's only down 2%. Greenland, of course, 75% to the upside. That's a big time runner. And then AEHL was another one of those running stocks. BAC, we've covered. Palantir, we've covered. Core, we've been covered. The TQs, obviously, we see what the market is doing. And a bunch of small cappers. So a lot of gappers on the board today that are looking pretty interesting here. And I think that's sometimes what you're going to find in the market. I haven't looked at Oracle. Really, it's not. I mean, is it surprising that Oracle is down 7% today? I don't think anybody's surprised. If you're talking about the stocks that are worried about debt, well, Oracle's near the top of that list. I think Core is probably a bigger one, but Oracle's at that list. There is support at $131.5 on the daily chart. That's probably the only thing that you can hang your hat on at this particular point with ORCL. But as I said, I'm trying to be pretty patient with our BAC. It hasn't made the jump I've asked yet there in the chat. I'm looking for the volume-weighted average price. Red is under the fact that it didn't quite get there. There was a couple of topping tails. But once we get in there, close to that 50 spot, look for another topping tail, and then we can look for the reload on BAC. Although, apparently, I'm hearing some stuff from the Morgan Stanley CEO. If the CEO of Morgan Stanley is talking, I might want him to shut up before getting into BAC again. Let's go to Adara for the Small Cap Recap.
[02:20:45] Speaker 1: I've been tracking these Morgan Stanley CEO comments, Neil. I wouldn't worry too much about them. The most recent one I was seeing is basically just, you know, being aware of the AI opportunity here. They remain overweight on the AI opportunity set. It seems more like kind of analyst-type notes here from this Morgan Stanley CEO as opposed to guidance. But if that changes, I'll keep you guys posted. Here's TGL. I mentioned this one with Luis Barbado this morning. We actually had their earnings yesterday after the bell, so losses per share coming in much smaller than they were this time last year. Sales rising. And then yesterday morning, they announced this MOU, the Memorandum of Understanding, to expand medical supply and pharmaceutical distribution across Southeast Asia. This company has a $1.86 million market cap, $1.82 million share float, and a whopping 17% short float. You'll also get a 17% short float with this next name, GLND. This is Greenland Energy. This name and the next name both in focus here. Greenland stocks to the upside as U.S. President Donald Trump hinted in a Truth Social post this morning that there will be, quote, massive oil, gas, and mineral exploration in Greenland. You've also got GRML here to the upside. This is Greenland Mines with a $96.6 million market cap, a 12%—sorry, 12 million share float, and a 7.75% short float. Back to you.
[02:21:59] Speaker 4: All right. Thank you. I saw an interesting fact. It was—I think it was, to this day, 1994, that Pulp Fiction was released. And the funny thing about Pulp Fiction was, guess how much it cost them to make that movie, Neil? Oh, I couldn't even.
[02:22:16] Speaker 5: And I don't have a reasonable guess on that. I remember something about some of the actors— It did $200 million in the box. Some of the actors I know did not make a lot of money. I don't know if some of them didn't make a lot of money off it because it's Tarantino, right? But I couldn't even guess.
[02:22:30] Speaker 4: Yeah, it was $8.5 million. And think about who it had in it. Travolta, Samuel L. Jackson, Uma Thurman, Bruce Willis, amongst more. So, yeah, absolutely crazy how much, you know, that cost and for what it was doing. So, a big shout-out to fans of the Pulp Fiction franchise. I mean, it's not really a franchise, but I guess it's become very much— Yes.
[02:22:55] Speaker 1: It won, like, the biggest award in cinema. It won the Palme d'Or in 1994. It usually goes to European directors, so that's impressive. He won Best Original Screenplay. There you go. Yeah, go Tarantino.
[02:23:04] Speaker 4: Yeah, so that was crazy. I was just doing it. It was, like, 1994. It popped up on one of my daily sort of—
[02:23:09] Speaker 5: It is nice to have dudes that want to work for you. Like, it's—like, he's probably one of those guys where, you know, there's actors that are, oh, and Tarantino calls, and I like the script, so all of a sudden it's a bit of a deal.
[02:23:20] Speaker 4: Yes, yes. But again, like, I mean, Travolta, it's one of those things. He was off of Grease. I don't know when Grease was. Maybe in the 80s or mid-80s. I think it was a comeback film for him. Yeah, that's what I mean. So, he was sort of kind of off on his own there, and then, you know, came back, and Tarantino, I guess, believed in him. But just amazing to see. And it's funny, because we talk about that, and it's like, $8 million nowadays would be like a one-day, like, you know, food budget for some of these movies. You know, as you get to see that.
[02:23:46] Speaker 5: Look at that Tom Cruise film that lost—
[02:23:48] Speaker 4: Yeah, Digger? Yeah, Digger. Is that what it was? Yeah, so—
[02:23:52] Speaker 5: It cost $120-something million?
[02:23:54] Speaker 4: It was a lot. It was a lot. I mean, $8 million? A lot of expenses over there. But yeah, watch out for that one. So yeah, just an interesting little fact there. Small fact. Fact of the day there for that one. But yeah, okay, so I don't know. I don't know what to talk about too much anymore. We were talking about some of the bank names. We were talking about some DRAM. Let's go back over to SpaceX. And if there's anything you guys want us to look at, please put it in the chat. I mean, SpaceX not doing a whole heck of a lot. All right, halter names. TC. Okay. Yeah, this one looks like it might halt again right now, actually. TC right here, up 205%. Zooming out. We've already been here. This was back in July. We went to 470, almost this exact top year, 450. There's the halt again on TC. So another name right now halting back and forth. TC. That's going to be one they could potentially look at. RIBB. That's 18,000 shares. That's not much. ALP. 1.2 million shares on ALP. Right now halting at 480. Look at this runner, man. This must be a reverse split name. Again, all the way to the upside now. Looking for that. I think that's what you want to do. You want to find names at a reverse split, keep them on your radar, and have a quick little look. But ALP right now, 350, looking like a decent low there. We'll see if this name wants to halt out of nowhere. Again, ALP could be one there. Oh, JBDI. Jebediah. This was... Jebediah. Yeah, Jebediah. Shreve was looking at this yesterday. It's moving around a little bit today, halting now at 235, up to 270, back to 230 again. So good old Jebediah here, making some moves around again. And that's about it. AEHL, 3 million shares. This isn't actually... AEHL. Isn't that a real stock? I know. No, not really. It's not. Antelope Enterprises. I mean, it's fine. But you can see right here, the chart's been pretty beat up here on Antelope. And it looks like we might have just reversed split there again. Anyways, on Antelope.
[02:25:43] Speaker 5: I make the same mistake with that one because I'm thinking in my... I'm thinking AEHR.
[02:25:48] Speaker 4: Right, right. Yeah, yeah. So there it is.
[02:25:51] Speaker 5: And it's not to say that these small cappers aren't real stocks and real companies. Good animal. You guys know what we mean. Antelope. When it comes to that. Before we get to... We have a super chat from Michael Webster. I did get a little late to this breakout. The confirmation candle was sort of here on CoreWeave. But you know what? The way this has been going down, tight stock. I'm only going to give it... I'm still going to give it to the prior bar. Forget about giving it to the low. And if it gets to VWAP, we're going to take it. GameStop is now starting to break out. But you got a super chat asking about the time frame to use to look at VWAP bounces, etc. Like Microsoft sitting on it for three months. Sitting on it for three months, but break it on other time frames. I only use the volume-weighted average price intraday. Like VWAP, I think we had Brian on yesterday. I think, you know, when you look at the AVWAP, that's something... If you want to anchor it to like a significant event and you have AVWAP, like what you could do... I'm just using an example here. Like you could have an AVWAP from the lows or a big earnings day. So you could do the AVWAP from like this volume spike on earnings and then have the anchored volume-weighted average price is your support level. The other thing sometimes people will do is they'll go the anchored VWAP from the all-time high, which I would probably venture. I don't have it on this chart, but let's just be real. It's almost certainly broken by now. So I think on the higher time frames, the only people that use the volume-weighted average price on dailies and weeklies and monthlies use the AVWAP. And I know that's something Brian could talk about. So when he's on next week, save that one and we'll bring that up with him. But I'm pretty sure the answer he would give is he'd anchor it off of big events like an earnings high or low or the actual low on the air, like 52-week low or like an earnings low, something like that to give you a support level.
[02:27:40] Speaker 4: We do want to thank all 8,000 of you watching. So let's get into a little bit of something called roll call right now. We'll see if we can say what's up to all of you guys watching us right now. We want to thank you all for being here with us. Again, it's roll call time. If you're in TikTok, shout, let's go. I want to shout you guys out as well. We want to thank everybody that's given Super Chats today as well, including our friends also on TikTok. Southern Nurse, thank you for that. Thank you to Special K on TikTok. Thank you to Icon. Thank you to Uncle Big Bank there on TikTok as well. As they're all coming in right there, we want to say a big shout out to everybody off TikTok for all of your Super Chats as well as all of our friends on YouTube as well. You can watch us everywhere. Wow. Google's now $1.50 in the money going higher. All right. There it is. Yo, what's up, Trader X? Puff the Magic Dragon. That's a good one. Tyler the Trader. We like that. Jay is there. Crazy Dirt Weed. I'd say stick with the good stuff, but it's up to you. Right there. Hi, guys. What's up, F Butter? TMC Trading is here. Verified Visionary says, what's up? Hello, Nick Graham. Hello, Kayla. Hello, Don Baca. I hope you guys are having a good time. Somebody named Mike Derider. Never heard of him. What's up, Adam James Abroad. Welcome to the club as well. You've been here for a minute. No respect, Dan. Bavin is here. Bavin. Boom. Trader Forever. Grandmother's Garden is here as well. The Hangry One is in the building. Juan Padilla and everybody else. Money Clips. And thank you to everybody for watching. Keep the good vibes going in and around these joints. It's Trader TV Live, man. You're rocking with the best. All right. So, there goes Google. I mean, look, man. It's been a little bit of a tumultuous. Thank you, Neil. Tumultuous trading day, that is for sure, especially if you're trying to catch them longs there. And it's been one of those days of trying to catch the longs. And we got another one right there. So, good long off 353. But yeah, catch, catch, catch. Every time, right? Up, fade, pop, bang. Up, fade, pop, bang. Bang, bang. This time, we actually get a little bit of a continuation. Let's see if we can hold just a little bit more of this position on for our good friend, Google. Of course, it's a good friend of mine. It's one of the only names we've been trading. But Amazon keeps on. Oops. Amazon keeps getting lower. We're starting to cover a little bit more of Amazon. Wow, there goes Google. We just got out at 355. So, that's going to be a good out for us there as we continue to march forward on Google. Now, $2 in the money on that one. Amazon, though, it's $3. So, now we're $3 short and $2 long. So, not a bad spot to be in right now. Okay, good. You're in Coral Weave. That was actually one of the next things I want to talk about.
[02:30:18] Speaker 5: That one was bleeding its own blood to steal the Sharifism. Yeah. But we're finally back into BAC. Rightly or wrongly, we're going to stick to the plan of just shorting the volume weighted average price until it proves that that's no longer a thing. You could also, you could look at it like this way, too. Like, from earnings, consolidation, it's been trending down off here anyways. A breakout through 50 would be some kind of a reversal for sure. I don't know that I want to reverse long into the name. As I said, I'm pretty skeptical of them for sure. Like, we're back into Coral Weave. It's not the same price level. And it's a bit of a, like, it's breaking out over here instead of breaking out down here. But it's still going to be the VWAP overall is going to be the target for myself here. And I saw someone mentioning SMCI is making a bounce. Already bounce would be the way I'd go here for SMCI. I was bearish on SMCI. This is one of the names that, you know, we liked some shorts on some higher levels that didn't matriculate. But this is back under VWAP. This is the break above VWAP and now lower. So, if anything, I'm thinking reversal short back into SMCI if this holds underneath. So, yeah, Coral Weave, we're in this one. Again, just to the volume weight, average price. I'm pretty skeptical about this name overall. And we'll be thinking about the short the same way we are in SMCI if it were to get up there. But for now, it's, you know, working its way back up. And we'll see if we can go from there. Tell us what other names you're looking at. The other thing that I want to keep close attention to is we're still getting a big-time recovery on TLT. Like, huge. This is almost back to where we were at the close yesterday. Like, the yields could go, like, the TLT, which is a 20, which is a long end. I know the two-year might matter more for a lot of traders. But this is still a pretty hefty rebound. It's looking pretty good. Sergio, hey, brother. Appreciate you. And thank you to all of our viewers from TikTok.
[02:32:08] Speaker 4: Yes.
[02:32:08] Speaker 5: All viewers in general. But thank you for the message from TikTok. We can always tell because it's all in the red there.
[02:32:13] Speaker 4: Yeah, we love our viewers over there. Thank you for watching us. And continued luck in all of your trading, guys. Because part of trading is luck. I mean, you need to have, you need to pick the right tops, pick the right bottoms, be able to have conviction. I think conviction is a very important word when you're talking about trading. And what an important word is, go long. Because look what JP Morgan just did right there. It made a move all the way back into the near the highs of the day, 334 and change for JPM. So, yeah, hopefully this name can also get going back up to the upside. That's going to be a good little look there. And I know, oh, you're still in BAC. I was going to say, I was waiting to see if BAC was going to go the other way. But let's go over to Goldman just for a quick second to check out some of the banks. Maybe the XLF would be something to look at on a day like today as we wind down on some bank earnings. So, they're still down that 1%. Texas Instruments, Alibaba, IBIT. Yeah, Bitcoin. You know, we wrote down short. It was a late addition to this because of the rates, right? We do not like the discussion of rates today. If you are in favor of the 10-year, then you had your moment in the sun. But now it's fading right back in. Still well above where we were. We're kind of halfway now. During CPI, we raise up to 533. We fall back into 525 right now. The low before that was 519. So, if you're talking about going up 14 basis points, basically, 0.14, and then all the way back down, you're kind of halfway right now. So, the rate's trying to figure it out, as is the NASDAQ, as we go down 1% and hovering near the lows. Will this start to break higher right now? I'm kind of thinking, yes. I'm going to take another opportunity to get out a little bit more Amazon. Like we said, the rate's coming back in. That should be bullish, sorry, for the overall equity markets. We'll see if that's the case, right? And hopefully it is. We'll be able to hold out some hope that Amazon may come back in to the upside. That was, Adara, this story, or Neil, this story was debunked with Starbucks, wasn't it, and Chipotle? Yeah, they're not.
[02:34:09] Speaker 1: No, that's been debunked by Starbucks. Chipotle saying, we're focusing on our strategy. Chipotle kind of seemed like they still wanted it. Starbucks was like, heck no.
[02:34:19] Speaker 4: Well, was it heck no, or was it just they denied it? Who initiated it? Like, I mean, we were talking about Brian Nickel there with Starbucks and Chipotle and Procter & Gamble. But yeah, $90 right there, a decent level. I was just going to, because I was looking at it, because I was looking at some stocks that were coming back in a little bit today. Starbucks green on the day, or almost green. And this is a decent level. So I just wanted to double check, like, if they were going to have to spend a couple billion on Chipotle or not. $90 right there for Starbucks has been a good little level. You know, that puts us basically greenish, flattish on the year. I mean, if you really cherry pick, down here was the start of the year, $88. But, you know, hovering around this $90 mark, not a horrible spot if you are into Starbucks. I thought Dutch Bros, that's been really getting crushed down to the downside. So I think it's like, pick your poison with a lot of these sort of, you know, I don't want to say consumer names, restaurant names. As McDonald's downside, we've seen the consumer, maybe not as strong as we had all hoped. Although, looking at the banking numbers, you clearly see some trading revenues are quite high. And we do get some good banking fees being collected. But I don't know if McDonald's or Dutch Bros are collecting any of those fees. But nice downside play right now for Dutch Bros. Maybe trying to pick some up. You've got to get above $40 before we do that.
[02:35:34] Speaker 5: Yeah, well, McDonald's has its own, has had its own problems, regardless of the consumer. Like, you compare it to some of the other restaurants, and they haven't been looking too good. So I can see why that would still be under pressure. My guess with the Starbucks story, sometimes you have a depressed stock, and people like to... It's not like an activist, necessarily, but it's basically like activism. So start throwing out speculation, oh, well, that combination will look good, and this one would look pretty good. And then if the right person says it, the market starts to believe that maybe it could happen, even if none of that rumbling is coming from a company that's interested. Any time there are buyout rumors, if you don't hear something from the quote-unquote potential acquirer within a day or two, and you had an opportunity to take your profit, you should go ahead and do so. Almost 100% of the time. I don't know how much further Corey wants to go. It's just... Like, it keeps trying, but all it's doing when it makes a bounce is having a consolidative range without making the next step up. So if this range in here, and the bottom's about 66.8, with the top of 67.3, is what it did before. If the range is just going to be a 50-penny range on a stock which has traveled to $10, then that's what it is right now. And scalping inside of the range is going to have to be part of the long story. I did mention SMCI under VWAP. This is one that it was a fail not being short, but you... Like, the opening candle was nasty. It's like a 2.5% down candle. That's a tricky one to get into. Unless you just sat there with the breakdown of the pre-market lows, which is not ever my plan for the short side. But we're in SMCI now under VWAP. If it breaks 37.2, we're out. But I'd almost rather they go upside so CoreWeave can get to VWAP here at 68. Then we can walk away from this one long. And start thinking about where we should have been short again on CoreWeave. BAC, I'll just quickly show you. BAC goes right into our entry point from the morning. Top VWAP, now it's headed right back underneath. I'm just thinking retracement, VWAP to the low like it did before. Nothing too crazy with Bank of America. We had a buddy, one of our buddies. Anytime you'd ever try to borrow money from this guy, he'd be like, What am I, Bank of America? I'd be like, dude, you're Canadian. But he's Canadian. I mean, he used to always drop that line. I think he was trying to be cute with it. Like, saying Bank of America. It's like, dude, what are you talking about? You know who I'm talking about. Yeah, of course.
[02:38:09] Speaker 4: Thank you guys always. What am I, Bank of America? Yeah, so, I don't know. All right. Yeah, Bank of America. Great money center bank. So maybe that's why he's talking about that. $355.52 right now. We just got out a double Google barrel action. There we want to say a big shout out to our good friend Brian Shannon off VWAP fame. Oh, and his own Alpha Trends. He's a great website. Go check him out. But definitely known for his VWAP talk. And it just ripped right. Low of the day back to VWAP in a market that we've already talked about fading pops. Yeah, we're doing that one over and over again. So more outs here. Just three outs there. You know, if this breaks below, let's not be too silly about this. We've seen this number fade against us just over a few times. So pretty much every single time. So I'm going to cancel my stop now and put a new one at $354.50. That'll be the stop there. Breaking through the 25 period moving average. $354. It just happens so quick, right? So I don't want to be not on it. We just cashed out a very good amount. We let this thing rip through. So once it ripped through there, we were sitting at $356.00, out $356.00, $355.80.00, out again right there at $55.00. So that's going to be my stop for now on the space. So there it goes, man. Google, that's going to be the stop. I'm still trying to look at to see if anything's hitting on anything. Apple's been a huge winner in this environment. Whenever tech goes down, it's because of some of the major players. The Microns, it seems like. The NVIDIAs of this world. Apple, with no CapEx there, continues to climb higher. And what a great release they had. Apparently, those HomePod things are really awesome. So that's going to go to the high side there. All the reviews I've been reading have been pretty cool with that and what that's been meaning. So Apple there, we know that there are tons of people in the ecosystem. Apple just continues to work. This has been a saving grace for many, many accounts because Apple has helped out with Microsoft too, has helped the NASDAQ sort of remain where it is. You know, you'd start losing Apple and you start losing Microsoft, the two biggest components of the NASDAQ and of the S&P 500. Then you're going to start to lose the whole market. Like, look at what Microsoft's doing right now. You know, so if we wonder why NASDAQ's at all-time highs, S&P's at all-time highs. Well, I mean, look, they pull back. Don't at me. But if we talk about over the last month or so, you know, you are into an area now that Microsoft is holding a lot of weight in these indexes. And we are starting to maybe tick off some of these highs. But Apple, Microsoft continues to go. And I actually heard today, I thought Meta was going. I heard some stories about Meta. Yeah, downs. Okay. If anything, it was the other way around.
[02:40:39] Speaker 5: It was a curious message we got where someone said. Oh, it was WhatsApp. Someone said Meta's doing well in our chat.
[02:40:46] Speaker 4: I'm presuming they were shorted. Is Mark Zuckerberg in our chat? No. Yeah, I was just going to say they must be short. Yeah, that's why. I thought Meta was doing better than it is doing. But, yeah, Meta right now bleeding to the downside, 752 right now for Meta not looking so great as a high. We'd like to get back into that, 744. But, again, like Meta doing heavy lifting on the NASDAQ as well. Not a huge component as much as the others as you look at the way market cap has an issue. But up to 780 right now, Meta, you know, nearing those highs as well. So, some of these names still doing well. NVIDIA, you know. So, what is it? I don't know. I mean, it hasn't been doing great the last couple days. Joe just said it was five straight down days. But from 223, the high being 240. Oh, yesterday wasn't down. You got to. Oh, it was. Oh, yeah. Maybe he said it was off of a five-day losing streak or something. But, oh, yeah. NVIDIA, what was it? Yeah, one, two, three, four.
[02:41:38] Speaker 5: No, yesterday was the. Broke the five-day. Yeah, yeah. Yesterday broke the five-day trend. This ran late in the day, like right at the close. Why don't I remember NVIDIA doing that on the imbalances? That's a weird one. It must have had a buy imbalance. I don't remember NVIDIA being crazy off the imbalances. Anyways, you can see it. It's still going lower here. Maybe it fills in the gap to 222. I'm getting increasingly skeptical of Core Weave. It's still going sideways. It hasn't really broken this trend. I think 68 is still going to remain the target. But, you know, the stock has been such a dog. It's been incredibly disappointing here. But, you know, for now, it's holding the line. BAC might be finding a little bit of strength. We're going to go to Adair for sector watch. But it just curled off of VWAP here and then caught a bid at 49.6. I'm still offering to try to get another fill-up at the volume-weight average price for now. But it's trying to go. Like, it's stronger than it was in the morning at the open when it was just all downside. So I'm going to keep an eye on BAC as maybe the buyers are starting to come into the banks. I want to confirm what Morgan Stanley and the others are doing before we, you know, get too far ahead of ourselves. Let's go to Adair. Time for a little sector watch. I'm kind of curious in all this bleeding how bioformers are doing today. Maybe healthcare. Something's got to be strong. Take a look.
[02:43:05] Speaker 1: Neil, you got it in one. Health technology, by far the strongest sector here. You've got AbbVie up 2.5%. Eli Lilly up 3.5%. Pfizer to the upside. Amgen to the upside. Merck and Gilead to the upside. You have some weakness here in the likes of Abbott. You've got some weakness in the likes of ISRG. But generally, these names are going to be stronger. The names that are up are trending much more strongly than the names that are down. You also have some strength in health services with UNH leading these names to the upside on earnings day, too. Energy mineral is relatively strong. Consumer non-durable is relatively strong. And you have some relative strength in retail trade. Now, of course, Carvana trading sharply lower. Amazon red, Home Depot red, but Walmart, Costco, CVS, all up at least 1% each. Then, let's talk about weakness. You're going to get a lot of that in consumer services, a lot of that in utilities, transportation. DoorDash and Uber really weak here. Non-energy minerals weak alongside that sell-off in metals. Producer manufacturing to the downside led by GEV down nearly 6%. And tech services is going to be a rough look across the board. Cyber security getting hit here. Crowd strike in Palo Alto networks. You're selling off by roughly 3% or more, especially Palo Alto networks. Oracle down 7%. You've got Meta down 2%. Microsoft down 1%. And some relative strength, though, in some of these software plays like Accenture and ADP, but not by much. Electronic technology. Apple green. Tech red. Or when I say tech, I mean these names here in the semiconductor space. That pattern continues. Dell, notably down 8%. Shreve mentioned this morning this one called a downgrade. You've also got notable weakness from the likes of Sandus. AMD and Marvell. Back to you.
[02:44:41] Speaker 5: Okay. Thank you, Nero. Look, I cheated. I knew AbbVie was up today. Like, I'm not. I don't want to make it seem like I pulled a rabbit out of the hat. I knew AbbVie was up a couple of points, so it's not a stretch to think that the space was up when tech is looking weak today. So, you know, I'll keep it real for a second there. Like, I'm not omnipotent there or anything like that. But it also does make some sense as to where you're going to find some strength today in the markets if we're bleeding. You know what? Bleeding is the wrong word. The Nasdaq's down 1%. We're not bleeding. No. We're down. We had a hot CPI print. Obviously, some names. When CoreWeave's down 13%, and Nebius, last I checked, was down about 10 points or so. SMCI's down 4%, even though it's rebounding here a little bit. You know, BAC's down 8%. There's a lot of names out there that make it seem more extreme than it is. But then you remember, like Sean was mentioning about Apple looking pretty good, and Microsoft not being too bad. Overall, the market is not in bleed territory. Speaking of a bleeding name here is, again, this time CoreWeave can't break 68 and a half. I might just hop out of this thing. As I said, if it's only going to be a 40 or 50 cent bounce, and it doesn't want to get to VWAP, then that is what it is. Throw the super chat up there, because I think it's a – oh, we can't? Okay, so our things aren't working. But it's like, keep it real. I'll always try to keep it real. Like, let's be real. Like, if I did pull a rabbit out of the hat, and I did just guess that AdV was up, fair enough. But I think a lot of times what's important is to remember the correlations we have in the market. Like, if you were trying to immediately think, okay, where might there be strength? Some of them aren't holding up. Like, if you tell me that the chips are down, usually I'd tell you Netflix is up. That stock's at the low. This should be concerning to people. Netflix was green when the market was looking bad. Netflix was holding the lows when the market was looking worse. And that little, you know, sort of Netflix strength into weakness for the chips, that has been holding. Now it's looking weak. That's a bad sign. Like, if Apple had been down heavy today, that also would be a very, very bad sign. Because in that old correlation of you can just trust Apple when your chip name, the AI trade's bleeding, that would have held true. Netflix used to be a part of that. And it's worth noting that it isn't here today. I think that's got to give us a little bit of pause with that stock going forward. Because, I mean, you could call that one, like, that stock is just a falling knife at this point in Netflix.
[02:47:30] Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't like that. We don't like to chase too many falling knives. Okay, we're in the NASDAQ 100 here with our T-Triple-Q trade. So, yeah, we're going to go into this one. You know, we're trying to buy it, trying to break above now. We finally cracked that 50-period moving average right there. I actually realized I punched too many shares. So, I got some out almost immediately when we got in. So, we're going to have to let this try to mature back to the – I mean, now we're fine. We actually took five units. I whittled it down to two and a half. So, let's give it a go. Because I was thinking to myself, like, I don't really want to try to push too long in this kind of a day. But I do think that the NASDAQ here just has been baselining for quite a while, man. I mean, it's basically been in this range since that's 10 o'clock. So, it's been in here for 45 minutes, kind of just going back and forth. I am sitting down near the lows to see if we can get a bid down there as well. But here we go, man. Nice little upside take so far here on the TQQs as we get into the futures trade here. And we're just going to wait to see if it wants to – see, just kind of stopping a little bit. Let's see if we get a 69-er out. And then we're waiting for 75s. And after that, we'll try to let the rest of this go. We still got our two units on right there. We did take two and a half. So, half a unit out. Right now, I'm waiting at 69. And then we're waiting at 78s for some reason. And then after – because that's right here. You know, this – oh, sorry. It's right this high right there. So, that's 80s. So, we'll sit a little bit in front of that to see if we're able to catch something there. But that's what I'm trying to work with right now is a NASDAQ long. And we'll see if it does wind up holding. I'm trying to average it back in, get a little longer if we do get back into these lows. So, there it goes again. A pop and a fade on the NASDAQ. I think we're going to have to be pretty patient with it right now on that. Like, nothing's really hitting on my scanners right now. I do want to say a big shout-out. We have Jason from TikTok. Thank you so much for that. Super chat as well as Sergio Campos from TikTok. We want to say a thank you to that here. See if we can send them. There it is. Sergio and then Jason. So, thank you so much. I actually realized that I can send these too, Andre. So, we'll just keep doing that. But thank you to – oh, you restarted it now. Perfect. Okay. So, there it goes, man. We want to thank all of you guys for all the super chats, wherever you guys are from and whatever the amount. So, seven cents. It's funny because on TikTok, you can, like, give, like, little flowers or something like that that's all worth different levels. So, thank you so much to whatever you guys are super chatting today. We really want to say thank you for that. But here's just a – like, I know we sort of looked at Sector Watch. But just a little bit of a broader look, like, what's really going down? Affirm. Fintech names. That's down 8.5% today. I-Ren just getting smoked. What's up to Arun there? The guy told me that this is a bad one. And it looks like you are right right there as this one getting crushed to the downside right there is I-Ren. Soxel. SMR. Wow, Neil. You talked about a hat size. Yeah. It's getting to be a hat size.
[02:50:19] Speaker 5: It's going to be my daughter's hat size pretty soon.
[02:50:21] Speaker 4: Yeah. Good call on that one. That's not looking any better, is it? SMR. $6 right now near big-time lows. Robinhood down to 104, down 5%. BMNR. We talked about the crypto plays bleeding. Yeah, so far, I never heard of it. Oh, here we go. Sorry.
[02:50:38] Speaker 5: Emotional damage.
[02:50:39] Speaker 4: It was a bit late.
[02:50:40] Speaker 5: I was trying to find it for SMR.
[02:50:41] Speaker 4: Yeah, good way of putting it. SMR, emotional damage. Marvell down 5% as well. DraftKings. A thing that I like is DraftKings. That's down 3% there today. We'll have to see. I'm not in DraftKings. I think it was breaking $21 or so on DKNG is what we kind of got to see right there. Meta. The market's, by the way, extending to the lows. You can't make money gambling. Yeah, exactly. We just got in to more. Now our average price is $76.40. The last level right now for us, we got just over 3.5 units right now on TQQs as we average that in on the futures. We keep on going lower right now. Eli Lilly, Walmart, Apple upside right there. JPM J&J. So this is why, man. Diversification does pay to some extent. But let's go back over to the desk with Adara. It's Moolah Talks, baby.
[02:51:35] Speaker 1: Here's a look at the U.S. dollar, which is right now here. I mean, we've got a nice green day. We're actually at roughly 18-month highs, our highest level since early April 2025 for the U.S. dollar. This is very much a rounded bottom enough. We go to the weekly chart. This is our fifth straight week of upside for the U.S. dollar. So that's continuing to climb next level of potential resistance here. If you look at the weekly, I mean, you had that prior support around 1.103.45. That support's going back to March of 2025. So that could be a level here. Then I would say you're probably looking here around that 1.06 area. So not a lot of overhead resistance right now for the DXY. Let's talk about CPI because it's the reason we had that climb to the upside here for the U.S. dollar. 6.6% for CPI month of Vermont for September versus the prior print of 0.4%. Core CPI month over month, 0.3% in line with the prior print, but above the estimate of 0.2%. Year over year, 3.7%. That's going to be well above the 3.4% prior print and above the 3.6% estimate. Core CPI year over year, 2.6%. That's above the estimate of 2.5% and the prior print of 2.4%. So all of these prints either above the estimate or above the prior print. And in the case of the year over year prints, both. So this is a lot of heat here in the CPI that we're talking about. Let's take a look at the CMA FedWatch tool. This has been oscillating, but we've seen anywhere from 50% to 60% chance here since the number that rates will be held in place in October. Roughly at this point, 44% or so chance that we'll get that rate hike. But if we don't get a rate hike, guys, in October, December could get a little bit worrying. We're seeing right now a 55% or so chance of a 25 basis point rate hike. We're also seeing a 38% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike. So we're likely going to get, at this point, if we don't get the hike in October, you could worry here, depending on what data we get going forward, that we get a larger hike in December. It's also worth noting, guys, that we have Kevin Hassett coming through. He even acknowledged that these prints were a little bit worrisome, but he said the Fed still doesn't have enough data to justify rate hikes. So we'll have to wait and see what data that gets to tip it over the edge for him. If you look forward here at probabilities, you are seeing a rate hike in December. Again, at either 25 or 50 basis points, a rate hike in January, and another hike in March, followed by a hike in September. This looks more or less like it did after the print. So, again, four hikes, guys, over the next 12 months. Back to you, Paul.
[02:53:55] Speaker 4: That's a lot of hikes. We tried. We have to flush ourselves down the toilet. I mean, everybody in the chat is 100% right, man. You're playing with fire, trying to go long. And, you know, there it goes. It breaks lower. It sucks, man. It'll put us red for the day trying that trade. And, you know, we don't have to talk about keeping it real. Everything I say, hopefully, is what I'm talking about. But the TQs, man, flushed out. We're out of it. Damn it. I mean, I still, like, I like this reversion trade today, but I think Adair just, like, nailed it right there. It's like there's just too much smoke today with the CPI. And it's just, like, it just keeps on going to the downside. I mean, we tried to dance with Google a little bit, which is Google's been fine. Amazon's now $3.50 in the money. So, you know, Amazon's been a saving grace for us. Otherwise, you know, how much worse would it be today? We'll take out another piece of Amazon right here. This is basically the low. There we go. At $3.56, this is the lowest we've sort of gotten on that. But, yeah, I mean, definitely playing with smoke there and got burned on the TQQs there and just tried it. Didn't work out. Hey, man, if you're not sitting here trying something, then, you know, there's another seat for you somewhere else. But at the end of the day, that was maybe not worth it. The reason why I liked it, we finally broke above right there, the 50-period moving average. So it worked for a while but did not work at the end of the day. So, you know, will I try it again? Eh, not right now. First of all, we've got to go to the gym. We're going to get out of here in five minutes. But that move right there does get squashed. So I think now maybe just dip buys there. We have Google has a good level. If we're able to get something into there, maybe. That's bouncing right now off $354. I don't really want to chase anything at this level. But, yeah, the NASDAQ now trying to get bumped. But at the end of the day, not a good long there. Making me think I want to get back into it. But, yeah, I don't know what we're going to have to wait for. The NASDAQ just keeps on going to the downside rate now, now down 1.15%. Ten-year, not the story that I thought it was going to be. I mean, it was a great story early. Come back down. We thought the NASDAQ would have rallied off of that. But, no, not at all. So, ten-year giving us the boogeyman treatment here because it's not moving the way I thought it would. So, downside rate there on the ten-year would have created a nice upside drift for the market. But you can see the NASDAQ still kicking lower right now. Oh, man, TQ is trying to bounce a little bit here.
[02:56:17] Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, they're trying to bounce. But instead of the easy piece, I hope you had it here. Because I'll tell you, like, that core weave, you sold puts, you went long, and met target. Like, for me, this wasn't even that good of a reversion trend. I missed the first dollar of the move. Like, it broke trend here, and I didn't get long until the consolidation. And then it didn't even get all the way into the volume weight average price. So, it's like, missed the first dollar of the move. It doesn't get that half dollar, which is almost a full percentage point on core weave. So, like, that was a very imperfect trade for myself. So, even when it get along, it's just not nearly as good as I wanted to be able to see. And, you know, to the point that Sean was talking about, which is now, now all of a sudden, you've got the TLT. You know, you could have a situation where this holds this trend up or dip, goes dip and rip, which could still signal a bit of a bottoming in the market. And with only three minutes to go, I never did get into this break on GameStop because it hasn't broken. It's trying again. So, GME has not cared what the market is doing. It is the longest. It has been making a bull flag since exactly 930. Made the high at the open. It hasn't broken the first low. It's just trying to break out $28. If it breaks $29, great. That means anyone that took the $28 break has done well, assuming it doesn't flush first. But this is trying to break out the top here. I still want to go long on a break of GameStop. I can't believe it's a half an hour later and it's still in the same range. Here we are. Ryan Cohen buying. Yes. Shoot. It was. You know what? I don't remember how much he bought. Because I'm mixing it up with. Because I know Berkshire bought up to. They're now 4% of Bending Spoons. And for some reason, I was about to say 4%. But I think he owns close to 9% now of GameStop. What? Correct me if I'm wrong. Is that right, Adara? Yeah. So, he now owns like 9% of GameStop as of today. Because apparently he bought more shares. So, I'm going to like this one for a breakout through the $28 level. If and when it does happen. Just to go back to BAC. I don't know. It's not. This is the second time it's crept into the volume weight average price since the open. But it's no longer flushing. It's barcoding off of VWAP. But it's under VWAP. So, that still makes the short valid. But it is. I go back to some of the other banks here. Now, look at Morgan Stanley. Like, that's under VWAP and heading lower. They're not trying to hold. Goldman Sachs is under VWAP and holding lower. So, the bank story is still short. Not as crazy as it was off the open. But there's still some weakness there. And one more bank before we get to what's for lunch. SoFi, SoFi, wherefore art thou, SoFi? If SoFi goes SSR today, it's an SSR bounce potential play for me. It's down 6%. And I don't think it's crazy to think that it could see 10 at some point today. If it does, we'll look for some kind of a lunchtime long reversion in SoFi. But that's the only way I want to go long today on SoFi, if it's down that far.
[02:59:22] Speaker 4: Yeah, SoFi's been getting crushed. We're going to take a little bit out here of our TQ. We got back into it. You know, we basically missed the bottom there by 10 cents. So, you know, we did get stopped out. There we go. We're taking some 37s if it gives it to us. Nice move. Off back upside right there. Like that, you know, that bottom was pretty darn close, man, for us. We saw some wicks there on the five-minute chart. Again, it still didn't save, man. All right. I guess I'll have to. Oh, that's the wrong thing. We want candle bars here, candlesticks, to see what's going on with that one. And there it was. So, that's where we identified that little bottom wick. I mean, there's many bottom wicks. So, I don't know if that's going to be the one, but there it goes through 50. Oh, man. Wish we still had the full load there. We do not. We didn't put as much back on there for the TQs. I'm just actually going to save my layout now before we go over. I'll just pull the bumper up and talk about what's for lunch. And I'll save my layout here, and hopefully it does do saving. This, for me, is the worst lunch that we could possibly have. It's a Swedish flag. I'll just get right to it, man. It's Swedish meatballs with creamy gravy. Even to say it gives me a little bit of, you know. But we'll see. Hopefully it's okay. The tilapia is worse. Yeah, but we don't get the tilapia anymore. No, I know. So, this one kind of came out of nowhere. So, mashed potatoes there. Steamed veg, cranberry sauce. That might be the savior there. Drown it with cranberries. But we'll see. Maybe it's okay. You never know. I don't know. I don't like the creamy gravy situation. No, I don't like that either. That scares me a little bit. It's nothing. Look, Swedish meatballs are fine. It's just, let's just see what this gravy is all about. Maybe we just don't have the gravy. Mix it in with some salad. Get a little bonanza there. So, that's what's for lunch there. Swedish meatballs, creamy gravy with mashed and then steamed vegetables. It's been roasted. We didn't get them yesterday. No, yesterday we just got salad, right? Yesterday was. Oh, this morning with the shashuka was french fries. So, right there. So, depending on how many Sharif's got in his fridge over there, there was quite a lot of eggs there.
[03:01:23] Speaker 5: But who? French fries at breakfast. French fries for breakfast. Like, I get it when I was a student. When I was a student, you got some, you know, you eat anything. But that was a weird one, man. Like hash browns.
[03:01:37] Speaker 4: Yeah, it depends what you're having it with. I guess, yeah, with eggs. Eggs and french fries. Yeah, but hash browns are kind of, you know, it's just a. If we had some drinks. Yeah, good luck there, hangover food.
[03:01:45] Speaker 5: That's what I'm saying. That makes more sense. You're not that picky.
[03:01:47] Speaker 4: Anyways, we're celebrating today. It's been a big day. Obviously, with CPI, we want to thank everybody for watching. It's been a big show, man. Over 8,000 of you. Thank you for always hitting the like, the subscribe, and continuing on with us. We do have right now the big midday show, Ready to Rock and Roll, with Joe and Sharif. That should be a lot of fun. Want to give a big shout out today to, of course, Sia will be on with these guys. Thanks to Sia for everything she's doing. Thank you to Adara as well. We've got over there Andre, Tiffany, big shout out to them. I haven't seen one. Oh, there's one. One's here today. So, shout out to one there. Joe, Sharif, everybody that's been part of the midday. Shout out to Neil. Good job with the hosting today. We're doing it every day. So, hopefully, we'll continue to get better every single day. We are back at 2 p.m., but, Neil, it's the midday show. Yes. So, why don't you throw it over there, because I've been talking way too much.
[03:02:37] Speaker 5: We're going to throw it over to our two best friends. We got Joey Options, Sharif, guarding those eggs like they are a pot of gold over there. And we'll be back at 2, everybody. Enjoy your lunch, but enjoy the midday show. Oh, shout out to Luis, who I think is going to be stopping by as well.
[03:02:57] Speaker 4: Yes, he will.
[03:02:58] Speaker 5: So, maybe he's going to have some full cash.