🚨GET READY: INFLATION REPORT TOMORROW...

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Losing $667 million in a quarter. And guess what? It's still up 2% during the aftermarket hours. What a time to be alive. Very unexpected earnings report. Honestly, I was surprised. Bitcoin was trading at all-time highs. Coinbase, I thought, was going to report at least one last good earnings, but it was terrible. But before we even get into Coinbase's earnings, I wanted to ask you guys, do you want me to go live tomorrow for the CPI report? Tomorrow, for those that do not know, we have a CPI inflation report tomorrow, Friday, February 13th, one hour before the market opens. Again, I don't want to wake up an hour before, which would be at 6.30 a.m. Arizona time if I don't have to. So if enough people show love to this video, I'll go live. So if this video gets over 1,000 likes, just drop a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel. I'll host a free live session so we can all watch it together as the markets react to the CPI report. For those that are watching for the first time, they're like, Ricky, why do I care about a CPI or what is it? CPI is an inflation report on a monthly basis. The official website, I want you to be aware of it. Make sure you note it down, bls.gov forward slash CPI. It's from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The really cool thing about this is that it tracks if inflation is going up or down month over month. Not only should you care because are you paying more for goods and services, you know, on a monthly basis, but also the Federal Reserve cares. And why do you care if the Federal Reserve cares? Because remember, if you want markets to push up higher, you want inflation to come in lower. Because if inflation comes in lower and it shows that it's closer to the 2% target that the Federal Reserve wants, then at that point, the Federal Reserve would be more likely to cut interest rates because they know that they have inflation under control. But if inflation begins to uptick and it comes in higher than what is expected, then inflation is not under control. And then therefore, the Federal Reserve cannot justify cutting interest rates soon. Because again, there's only one rate cut projected for 2026. So again, if you're a bull, you want inflation to come in lower than what is expected. If you're a bear because you like shorting or you're just looking for good deals, you want inflation to come in higher than what is expected. At least that's based off of the normal response. With that being said, again, inflation report tomorrow. Expectation 2.5% for overall CPI with the previous of 2.7%. Just wanted to make sure that you were well aware. And again, hopefully I earned your thumbs up. Let's talk about Coinbase. Honestly, I'm kind of bummed. I made a video a few days ago. Honestly, I think I've been talking about it for the past two days because Robinhood reported earnings. They reported bad earnings. But I thought Coinbase could do things a little bit better, right? Crypto, Bitcoin hit all-time highs in Q4 of 2025. What the heck? How did it report such terrible earnings? Breaking. Coinbase unexpectedly reports a large quarterly loss, posting quarterly EPS of negative $2.49 compared to its expectation of 96 cents. The company posted a net loss of $667 million last quarter. What? What are they spending their monies on? Where's their monies going? It just doesn't make sense. And on top of that, to add to the uncertainty, Coinbase users currently are unable to buy, sell, or transfer crypto due to the platform issues. Again, I really hope that that's a coincidence. The biggest telling tell, I think, is this. It's just my opinion. It's all speculation. But Brian Armstrong, he's the CEO and founder of Coinbase, and he has sold over 1.5 million Coinbase shares, over half a billion dollars. That's not a small amount. From 2025, April. So you're telling me that as Coinbase was approaching its all-time highs, it was hitting and making you all-time highs around this time. Till January of 2026, he's been dumping half a billion dollars of his Coinbase shares. Again, I want to show you. On the day chart, we can see here, boom, boom, boom. Look, as it's been pumping and becoming more overbought, did he know something that we didn't, right? Came back, founded support, came back up to retest, lower high from $446 per share. Now it's down to lows of $142. This is why I've been talking about it, because I was like, oh, you know, hey, this stock is down 68%. And fundamentally speaking, again, I don't like crypto. I've made it very clear. I think it's been made very clear on Instagram and on YouTube. I don't mess with crypto, but I wouldn't mind owning a business that conducts good business and makes a ton of money in the crypto space. It's an actual business, right? This earnings kind of discouraged me. And the reason I found it attractive was because it was trading at such a low PE ratio. Relatively, in comparison to its competitors, it's trading at like 12 to 11 times its earnings, which is relatively, you know, competitively very low. So fundamentally, I thought it was going to do good, or at least that's where it was heading. But to me, like, I can film a whole video separate just about this more on the kind of like, it's all speculation in that sense, right? Because technically speaking, you can get it right now for a 68% discount based off previous highs. And if you think that markets are going to recover and just go back to previous highs, if you're bullish on the market, which I respect your opinion, right? We're all entitled to our own opinion. That's what makes America great. I could see, right? It's testing a major support range. And that's what was attracting me to possibly want to buy it. But hear me out. Just speculation. Overall markets are still trading nearly at all time highs, right? QQQ, which is the NASDAQ. Overall markets are down 5%, 6%. Why does it always do that? Let me pull it up here. Overall markets are down 5.5%. We're still very bullish overall for big tech. But while overall tech is bullish, Coinbase is down 68%. So my concern is not only with and because of the CEO selling, it's kind of a red flag. Not just because of what it reported for its Q4 earnings of 2025. But just speaking based off cycles, we know that companies like Coinbase make money through trading fees and through order flow. When trading activity slows down and it enters these dry spells or these bear markets, these companies directly make less money. And again, this is not just an opinion. That is fact. If you look at when it makes the most money, it's during these bull runs. And during the downturns of revenue are during the bear markets. Then the uptick. Are we going to enter a dry spell? So I think a lot of it has to do with your perspective and your outlook for the overall markets. The reason I brought up the overall markets is if overall markets begin to downturn, to me, this means that Coinbase will only continue to sell off further. And I really liked the way that someone on Twitter presented it. The market should care less about Q4 and concerned more about Q1. Subscription and services guidance, 550 million to 630 million. That's what Coinbase projected for Q1 of 2026. That's potentially down meaningfully from Q4 of 727 million. So now for Q1, they're lowering their guidance for Q1 in comparison to Q4, which is a sequential decline of risk, right? And why would a company begin to lower its expectation for revenue if they expect markets to push higher? So to me, it's been made very clear that we should understand that Coinbase in the way that it trades is effectively a leveraged proxy of Bitcoin and crypto market participation. When crypto market participation is high, trading is high, trading fees are high, they make a lot of money. But as it's low and can possibly go lower, then again, does this mean that Coinbase can continue to go lower? Again, Coinbase is no stranger to downturn. It's traded in 300s before in 2021. And then it's sold off to lows of 31. So again, can it, you know, 140 is cheap, but can it get cheaper? It all is based off of your outlook. I hope that I never discourage you from investing in companies that align and meet your criteria. So if you think Coinbase is a good deal, and you're bullish in the market, you could be right. Markets, if they continue to push higher for longer overall, they could provide the condition and the environment for Bitcoin to begin to uptick as well. And for Coinbase to begin to uptick. I agree with that. But in contrast, if markets begin to downturn, that would only add to the selling pressure. Bitcoin would be likely to sell off even further and trading activity were likely to slow down even more. So then Coinbase goes even lower. Again, food for thought. Just because it's cheap doesn't mean that it can't get cheaper. I love talking about this because it really gets you to think. No one can predict the future, but we can all prepare for it. And I think that when you begin to kind of like be more realistic, you begin to understand that, yeah, I think it is likely for possible more downturn, especially if Bitcoin continues to sell off. If Bitcoin begins to uptick and we see another leg up, then it makes sense on why we could possibly entertain the idea of going long on something like Coinbase. So again, very excited to follow up. Very excited for tomorrow's CPI report. I hope to see you there. And whenever you're ready to join our LPP team, I trade live every single morning with them. And it's the second link in the description down below. And I hope to see you there for our live trading. Like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take care, team. Happy Thursday.