Former U.S. officials analyze chances fragile Iran ceasefire can hold

[0:00] and now for additional perspective on the ceasefire in today's developments we get two views [0:05] barbara leaf was u.s ambassador to the united arab emirates and was the assistant secretary [0:10] of state for near eastern affairs during the biden administration she's now a distinguished [0:15] diplomatic fellow at the middle east institute that's a think tank in washington dc and michael [0:20] doran was senior director for the middle east on the national security council during the george w [0:25] bush administration and is now a senior fellow at the dc-based hudson institute with a welcome to you [0:31] both barbara we'll start with you how confident are you that this ceasefire such as it is this fragile [0:36] truce can hold um i'm very worried i think a lot of people are worried um above all the folks in the [0:43] gulf i spoke to several senior gulf officials today they all turned turned the arrangements as fragile [0:51] one said it was less a ceasefire than it was a tragic a fragile truce but that the prospect of [0:59] of escalation was clearly there it did give time which was good but another official worried about [1:05] the fact that this dispute over over whether lebanon was in or out of the agreement was clearly a point [1:12] of volatility what about that michael the fact that the the us and iran the negotiations are so far [1:18] apart what are the prospects that that they can come together it really depends on how much the [1:24] iranians are hurting and how badly they want this deal i think and it's really really hard to know [1:29] they're clearly trying to pull lebanon into the into the deal and perhaps that's one of the reasons why [1:35] they aren't letting uh ships travel freely through the uh the strait maybe it's part of the reason why [1:41] they continue to hit the gulf states today we're gonna have to see how it goes it might just be that this [1:46] is the messy end uh to this part of the conflict i mean ceasefires are often messy but we're gonna [1:52] have to wait and see the president barbara suggested that iran has capitulated do you see any evidence of [1:58] that not so far not so far i think they are getting ready to see what they can get at the table [2:05] but they clearly believe they have two really profoundly important pieces of leverage one the capacity [2:12] still resilient capacity and will to uh to impose really huge costs on the gulf in and in terms of [2:20] the energy infrastructure and critical infrastructure but more importantly they have a hold on the global [2:27] economy's throat through the strait of hormuz so that is a huge piece of leverage how do you see it [2:33] uh i think they do have those points of leverage for sure uh we didn't destroy their all of their [2:39] uh missiles and drones um and they have this muscle that they can that they can use but they're hurting [2:45] very very badly they they have um you've seen their senior leadership has been destroyed some of their [2:51] repressive apparatus has been destroyed their um defense industrial base has been set back and think [2:57] about this the situation they were in just before the war began their economy is a completely complete [3:03] basket case their currency is uh is worth nothing they're in really horrible shape let's talk a bit [3:09] more about the strait because president trump today proposed this idea of a joint venture between [3:14] the u.s and iran that would charge ships passing through this this key trade corridor what do you [3:20] make of the suggestion that the u.s and iran could somehow jointly manage the strait of hormuz well i was [3:26] gobsmacked um i didn't know what to make of it and i i hardly think that was a reassuring proposition [3:34] to again the gulf countries or to others who around the globe who really depend on that to be an open [3:41] waterway for the free flow of commerce so that is not status quo ante and and that would suggest [3:48] something that will be even harder if anything to arrange this idea that iran is is weakened but still [3:56] dangerous what does that mean for stability in the months ahead i it's going to be very very uh fragile the [4:03] whole the whole situation uh it really does come down to what the new leadership in iran uh wants [4:09] there's clearly a current uh of opinion you heard it in the statements of president peseshkin uh to go [4:16] a different way less support for proxies some kind of agreement with the united states over the nuclear [4:21] program but the guys who are in control of the of the missiles are don't have that point of view we have [4:28] to see once the dust settles here a little bit if if that other opinion that we're hearing through [4:33] president peseshkin can actually have some opinion some influence on the irgc yeah what's what's your [4:39] assessment well i think the the the sad truth is that there has not been regime change as such there has [4:46] been a transition in the regime but it is meant that the irgc has captured the heights of power of every [4:52] element of power the supreme leader is is visible only through statements but in any case uh doubtful [5:02] that he will be uh less hard line than his father uh he won't be as powerful as his father was at the [5:08] end of his life um and so uh as mike said it's it's a very it's an opaque system it's very difficult to [5:16] measure where it's going to come out i frankly believe though that the true test that will be that will [5:22] test the regime is not so much what the us and the israeli militaries are doing as as brutal a [5:29] campaign as it's been uh for the regime but rather when the guns fall silent and they have to face their [5:35] own people and they have to face a shattered economy and that's where getting the strait of hormuz [5:41] out of their hands again uh is so critical because otherwise they have a huge volume of money coming in [5:47] to fill their coffers stepping back in your view is the u.s better off today after striking iran [5:56] absolutely they were the the administration faced and the israelis faced and iran that was building [6:02] up a massive stockpile of uh of missiles and that was going to protect their uh protect their nuclear [6:09] program and we can see how serious this these weapons are they are they've hit uh some of our most [6:16] important radar systems in the um in the middle east they've they've wreaked havoc with our uh with [6:22] our allies it's not easy to eradicate it and if we sat back and let them build up a bigger and bigger [6:28] stockpile we would be in a much worse situation than we are now how do you see it so it really [6:34] fundamentally depends on what we're able to to get for these post-conflict arrangements the the damage that [6:44] my laid out is is is truly epic but it is transient what has been destroyed can be can be rebuilt especially [6:53] if they have revenues coming in from their oil and the strait of hormuz so that all depends whether [7:00] we're better off or not is really fundamentally uh driven by what we can arrange at the negotiating table [7:07] and that will take also uh something that the administration is not fond of doing but really [7:14] creating a multilateral coalition not so much for securing the strait although that there may be [7:19] a role for that but rather for the collaborative political pressure on on the regime barbara leaf [7:25] michael doran thank you so much for your insights deeply appreciate it support journalism you trust [7:31] support pbs news donate now or even better start a monthly contribution today