Forecaster shifts 19 more House races away from GOP

[0:00] As millions of Americans cast their ballots early, a new midterm forecast pointing to growing [0:05] trouble for the GOP. According to the Cook Political Report, the party's path to keeping [0:10] control of the House has, quote, all but evaporated. Its latest projections have moved another 19 races, [0:16] 19, into the Democrats' direction. Dave Wasserman is with us now to talk about this. He's a senior [0:22] editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report. Dave, great to have you here to talk [0:27] about this. Several of the ratings changes are tied to Republicans underperforming at the top of the [0:34] ticket. Where are candidates in statewide races bringing down candidates who are down ballot? [0:42] Brianna, with these changes, what's significant is that we now have a majority of House seats at least [0:47] leaning towards the Democrats, 220 of them. And a big reason is that Republicans have specific top [0:53] of ticket problems in several states. For example, North Carolina is a state where Republicans have [0:58] pulled out of the Senate race. National Republicans have stopped spending money there. Roy Cooper's [1:03] on track to win. That could be detrimental to Republican House candidates. We've actually moved [1:07] three House races towards the Democrats, including some seats that Republicans didn't anticipate would [1:14] be vulnerable at all. And that's after Republicans redistricted the state to their benefit. Ohio, where you [1:21] have this bloodletting within the Republican Party over the Ramaswamy ad. The critical block there is [1:29] Mike DeWine Republicans. And in a way, DeWine's condemnation of the ad without outright coming out [1:35] in favor of Amy Acton is more powerful than if he were to switch his endorsement. It could depress [1:41] Republican turnout to the point where several Republican seats would be in jeopardy in Dayton, [1:46] in suburban Columbus. Republicans have been trying to oust Marcy Captor in Toledo. That looks less [1:52] likely to happen. Max Miller could lose outside Cleveland. And even in Kentucky, a place where [1:57] there isn't a competitive statewide race, low turnout could be problematic for Republicans' chances of [2:03] holding the sixth district in Lexington. So for Republicans, it's like a game of whack-a-mole where [2:08] they can't keep up with all the emerging problems and headache races. Wow. And if you follow the money [2:16] here, where are you seeing Republicans and Democrats invest in these final days? And what is that telling [2:22] you? The bulk of the spending is happening in states that did not gerrymander their districts for [2:29] 2026. We have clusters of very competitive seats in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, [2:36] Virginia. There are also a lot of competitive seats, though, in Florida and Texas where Republicans did [2:42] draw the map to their benefit and where we're seeing overperformance for Democrats relative to 2024 among [2:48] Hispanic voters. There are three to four seats that Republicans drew in South Texas with the aim of [2:55] converting them to their side that we think Democrats stand a very good chance to win. If that happens, [3:01] Republicans' efforts to gerrymander might not yield them any more than two or three House seats. Keep [3:09] in mind, Democrats only need to flip three Republican seats on net to win the House majority. This could [3:15] end up being pretty big where Democrats either match or possibly exceed the 235-seat majority that they won [3:24] in 2018. Yeah. So they currently hold 215. You now have 220 seats rated either solid, likely, or lean Democrat. [3:36] So that is, I mean, that is quite the switch here. What are you, I mean, at this point in time, [3:44] it seems like Republicans are just trying to stem the bleeding. That's right. And they're shifting a lot [3:50] of resources out of seats that used to be in the toss-up column into seats that are in lean or likely [3:58] Republican to try and shore up incumbents who are getting dragged down by Trump's low approval rating. [4:05] And look, there are plenty of Republicans out there who have distinct brands independent of Trump who [4:10] are still in the game. For example, Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, Ashley Hinson running for Senate in [4:16] Iowa. But then less well-known Republicans are the ones who we're seeing shocking polling for, [4:23] especially in some of these open seats where the candidates are not well-defined and it's more of [4:29] a referendum on Trump's performance. So whether it's Iowa's 2nd District or North Carolina 11 or [4:35] Nevada 2, these are all double-digit Trump seats that Republicans are struggling to hold and where [4:40] they're pouring money in at this minute. Really interesting to watch here. Dave Wasserman, [4:46] thank you so much. Thanks, Brianna. Democratic House Minority Leader says a path to victory [4:52] is in sight, but knows that the fight is far from over. Listen. Donald Trump and migrant extremists [5:00] are on the run because they have failed. They've broken every promise that they've made to the [5:05] American people. Life has not gotten more affordable. Life is far too expensive. Trump policies, [5:12] like the tariffs, have increased costs on everyday Americans by thousands of dollars per year. But we [5:19] take nothing for granted. We're going to work hard to turn out every vote. CNN Chief Washington [5:28] Correspondent, our friend Jake Kapper, is here with more. Jake, thanks so much for taking the time to join [5:35] us today. So as noted, the Cook Political Report just moved 19 House races towards the Democrat. [5:40] It comes at a time when oil just hit $115 a barrel. So are Republicans facing what the president even [5:51] himself describes as midterm backlash that is typical for the incumbent party? Or is something [5:58] deeper happening? Is there a deeper rejection of the president's policies, specifically the impact [6:04] of the war in Iran on American consumers? It's deeper than just normal midterm blues. They're [6:14] obviously, as you just noted, higher prices, partly because of the tariffs, which are not popular, [6:20] partly because of the war in Iran that's not popular. I don't know in recent history of a president [6:28] president that has gone into the midterms with such low approval ratings. I think you have to go back [6:36] to Harry Truman to find somebody as unpopular as President Trump is right now. And about three [6:45] quarters of the American people think that the country is on the wrong track. So the numbers to [6:50] pay attention to are the president's popularity or unpopularity, the consumer confidence, consumer price [6:57] index, and right track, wrong track. And those are all disastrous for the president. And then, of course, [7:02] you have this curious decision to double down on that Vivek Ramaswamy ad in which Ramaswamy, [7:10] Trump, and Vice President Vance effectively are siding with child predators against a victim of child [7:18] rape and against Ohio law enforcement. Because remember, the stepdad, as you noted, was arrested for [7:24] this and then became a fugitive of justice. And the mom stuck with him and left and abandoned her [7:32] daughter and Amy Acton's brother. So I've never seen a closing argument quite like this one of [7:40] standing with child predators effectively. But that is how this race and these midterms are ending. [7:47] Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. It will be interesting rather to see how Vivek Ramaswamy's ad is going to [7:53] play out among independents in Ohio and women as well. We'll see. But Jay, to your last point about [8:01] Donald Trump being historically unpopular, what's interesting is that when voters are polled, [8:05] it's not as though they believe that Democrats have all the answers either. And so if those who are [8:10] supporting... Yeah. So if those who are supporting Democrats are much more motivated by their opposition [8:16] to Republicans than their actual enthusiasm for Democrats, then what sort of problems does that [8:22] present for Democrats when they do come into power, Jake? Well, it presents a governing challenge, [8:29] no doubt, one that's going to be exacerbated by the fact that there's going to be this tension between [8:34] the far left DSA Democrats and the more moderate centrist Democrats. But I'm sure Hakeem Jeffries would [8:43] love to have that as a problem. There is what Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report referred [8:48] to as a Republican undertow in this wave, which is what you just noted, that Democrats are not popular [8:55] either. President Trump and the Republican Party are the ruling party right now, and therefore they [9:02] probably will be punished by voters. But there is an enthusiasm to vote for Democrats that we're seeing, [9:10] but there's not a lot of enthusiasm for the Democratic Party writ large. And in fact, if I could just note, [9:16] previous midterm elections in which Nancy Pelosi was the chief Democrat, I'm thinking about 2006 and 2018, [9:26] I, just having covered those races, there was much more unanimity, much more policy agenda being presented [9:34] to the American people. These are the things we are standing for. The six in 06, I remember. [9:42] And I don't hear those agenda items, and I have not really been able to get from Democratic guests on [9:49] my show an idea of what they are standing for other than against Trump and against high prices. But I [9:56] don't know if they're going to be pushing a minimum wage increase. I don't know what they're going to do [10:01] about the tariffs or the war, since those are largely in the wheelhouse of whoever's in the [10:06] executive branch. So that is a mitigating factor in all of this. [10:11] Jake, you mentioned past midterms and elections that you've covered. I checked with our good friend [10:17] the internet. And from what I've been able to glean, this would be your eighth midterm election as a [10:24] journalist. So if I'm wrong, blame. 2002 was my first. 2002 was my first. I think this went back to 98. [10:32] I think this went back to 98. So I don't, I don't know. Maybe you were print at the time, but [10:36] aging you. I was print. I was not a national reporter. I'm old enough. I'm old enough. You don't need to add me. [10:43] You were a teenager just doing extra coverage outside of school. Anyway, I guess the question here is, [10:51] what makes this one different from previous midterms that you've covered? And I ask it because [10:58] the New York Times Siena poll found that nearly three quarters of voters trust that the election [11:03] results will be accurate. Yet half of Republicans, they worry that Republicans will try to overturn them [11:12] illegally. Is this a concern? Half of Democrats are going to. Yet half worry that Republicans could [11:20] turn them or try to overturn them illegally. Do you recall ever seeing this as a factor for voters [11:28] going in to vote? No, but no, but I don't. But this is the first election in which President Trump [11:38] is in the White House since January 6, 2021, when he and his supporters tried to overturn the results [11:48] of the election. So it is not unfounded or conspiratorial for people out there to worry. And in fact, [11:57] President Trump has been signaling for quite some time that they are going to do everything they can [12:01] to challenge the elections in various ways. Right now, they're filing legal briefs to notify [12:12] the Alaska Board of Elections that because Senator Dan Sullivan from Alaska, Republican, is running for [12:19] reelection and somebody else named Dan Sullivan is also on the ballot, the Trump White House, [12:24] the Trump Justice Department is warning, we might challenge the results if Dan Sullivan, [12:29] the incumbent senator doesn't win. But beyond that, there are just questions about all this nonsense, [12:34] all this disproven nonsense about elections being stolen and voter fraud on such widespread scales that [12:43] it's changing elections. And so I can understand why people are worried about it. It's certainly something [12:49] that we're paying attention to on my show. What exactly is Trump planning on doing? He's installed all sorts of [12:56] election deniers in various positions of government. And there we keep hearing talk by various conspiracy [13:04] theorists who are connected to Trump, like Tina Peters from Colorado, or Ed Martin and on and on of [13:11] people who don't accept the fact that President Trump lost fair and square in 2020, and are talking [13:17] about taking steps in 2026. And we'll see what they do, if anything. Despite the fact that what one of the [13:24] reasons that makes our voting system so secure is that it is decentralized, it is controlled by the [13:31] states and locally, yet the president is continuing and his supporters there to make threats and wield [13:40] their own power if the outcome is not as they desire. Jake Tapper, whether it was 1998 or 2002, we always turn to [13:49] you for your analysis, brilliant insight. So thank you once again.