Fed’s Waller Sparks Larger Rate Hike Debate After Hot Inflation

[00:00:00] Tiffany Wilding: Well, clearly the Fed has missed their inflation target for, I think, a more prolonged period than they're clearly comfortable with right now. And ultimately, I think that's why you're seeing Chris Waller come out before the CPI report, you know, basically warning that if it's strong, that, you know, 50 basis point hike in December is on the table for discussion. You know, and when we look at the underlying details of this report, you know, it does like we're, it does look like we are seeing, you know, a broadening out of inflation. Now, we think that it's related to passing through of higher energy costs, diesel, shipping costs and things like that. If you look all across core goods prices, they were just unanimously strong, but also on the services side, you know, public transportation outside of airfares, you're seeing broadening out of increases there to offset higher energy costs. But then more generally, services, ex-shelter, recreation services and things like that, they're also accelerating. You know, this is one of those prints that, you know, is incredibly disappointing for a central bank that wants to make sure that, you know, what should be price level adjustments are not broadening out into more inflationary pressures. [00:01:10] Speaker 2: Damien Sansar, what Tiffany Wilding just described is how I feel at home. That symbol. [00:01:18] Damien Sansar: Well, look, I mean, Tiffany, you know, look, you rightly to point out that Chris Waller's comments earlier this morning, but this is just the tip of the iceberg this week. You know, I mean, we see a lot of Fed speak coming through. Can we can can any Fed governor out gov what Waller just said this morning? [00:01:34] Tiffany Wilding: Well, I think what we're looking for now is is that you have some consistency across the the language of other Federal Reserve officials. You know, so it does seem like as you've had chair Warshad has stepped back from any kind of guidance, whether it be framework or forward or what have you, that that Christopher Waller has sort of stepped in and, you know, provided a bit of a guiding light on what the central bank may do. And it does seem like after he speaks, there is more of a, you know, a thematic effort from others to sort of echo and emphasize, you know, what he has said. So I think what we're going to be looking for is other central bank officials and how they're viewing this report. You know, clearly 50 basis points is on the table. You know, now what I would say here as well is, you know, when we look across the inflation data and the broader economy, we don't think the Federal Reserve is sort of behind the curve like what it looked like in 2022. Now, of course, you know, that early on, you know, did appear to have more transitory factors, you know, clearly than inflation broadened out. You know, but if we look now at, you know, the Fed's own Taylor rules, for example, you know, they're not that far away from what monetary policy rules would suggest they should be. You know, whereas in, you know, in 2022, you know, those simple Taylor rules were suggesting that the Fed was, you know, you know, much lower than they should have been. So we still think this looks like an adjustment, but nevertheless, it's concerning that inflation, you know, does look like it's broadening out a bit here. [00:03:11] Speaker 2: I want to get back to first principles, folks. Codified by Greenspan, they used to do eighth of a point. Codified by Greenspan was a quarter of a point, 0.25 or 25 basis points. And all of a sudden today, we're talking, Tiffany Wilding even said the 50 basis point phrase there, folks. I mean, Damien, it's just too much. [00:03:32] Damien Sansar: Well, Tiffany, I'd really love to get your opinion on the true state of the U.S. consumer here. And more to the point, you know, what is your belief? Like, what is the impact of equity market valuations and, of course, housing affordability on the U.S. consumer? Do you see it sentiment deteriorating at all here? [00:03:49] Tiffany Wilding: Yeah, I mean, I mean, I think higher prices are certainly, you know, weighing on on the consumer, at least certain consumers. You know, we've been talking about the so-called K-shaped economy for for quite some time where you have, you know, higher income that's doing quite well because they are enjoying the equity market gains that they've received over the last number of years, several years. And I think that's still the case. But, you know, I think what we're seeing is just that demand in the U.S. economy, you know, is incredibly strong. And that is, you know, despite the various shocks and headwinds that we've seen this year, the energy shock, you know, tariffs and otherwise, we've seen consumption and also, obviously, investment, which is related to the AI buildout that's been incredibly strong. Now, we think some of it cools from the kind of breakneck pace that we saw in the third quarter. And you get some of cooling that is happening in the fourth quarter, the first quarter of next year. But nevertheless, I think what the Federal Reserve is concerned about is that you have an economy that looks incredibly strong from a demand perspective, final domestic demand, and you have inflation that looks stickier than they would like here. And so they want to make sure that they keep financial conditions, you know, broadly tight and from, you know, easing anything here to reduce the risk that, you know, these inflationary pressures broaden out.