Fareed: Trump is looking to ‘simply leave’ Iran war

[0:00] Farid, I want to start with a new timeline the president gave tonight among many of the things [0:04] he said about the war in Iran. He said it will be done in two to three weeks. What does that tell [0:09] you? It tells me that President Trump is trying to find a way to end this war unilaterally. [0:19] The problem he has is that he wants to end the war clearly at this point. The Iranians have [0:25] to get a vote and their vote seems to be to continue it because they want to exact a price [0:31] by stressing the world economy, driving the price of oil up, keeping the Strait of Hormuz [0:38] closed. So the president seems to be in a sense unilaterally saying, look, we're going to wind [0:43] down activities. My guess is what he's doing is saying two to three weeks because that gives him [0:48] enough time to pummel the Iranians even more, which is what his Gulf state allies want, Saudi [0:55] Arabia, the UAE. And then he it seems as though they're they're preparing for a [1:01] strategy where they simply leave. And maybe the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Maybe [1:08] it's not. Maybe they get an agreement. But it's a way out. It doesn't. It strikes me [1:15] as a rather bizarre situation because you would have the the the the Strait of Hormuz [1:21] closed. Oil would still be extremely expensive. But it appears that the White House is searching [1:28] for a way out. And as they have through this entire [1:31] process, they're sort of freelancing and throwing stuff up and seeing if it will work. [1:37] And that seems the new idea. Just quit and go home after after a few more weeks of this [1:43] pounding. And as for the Strait, he really seemed to confirm all the reporting over the [1:48] last few days that he'd been telling A's that we can end this without reopening the Strait [1:52] of Hormuz. He flat out said tonight what happens in the Strait, it's it's not going to be us [1:57] that has anything to do with it. Basically saying the United States will not be the one [2:01] to open the Strait. So where does that leave things? Well, as I say, it's completely bizarre [2:09] because not only are the strategic objectives of the war, they're not achieved. You have [2:14] the same Iranian regime in place with even more hardliners, with the Revolutionary Guards [2:19] in place. They are earning twice as much from their oil as they were before because the [2:26] price of oil has has almost doubled. And they are making potentially hundreds of millions, [2:33] you know, of oil. And they are making potentially hundreds of millions of dollars of oil. And [2:33] they are making potentially hundreds of millions of dollars of oil. And they are making potentially [2:33] hundreds of millions of dollars of oil. And they are making potentially hundreds of millions of [2:33] hundreds of millions of dollars of oil. And they are making potentially hundreds of millions of [2:33] dollars of oil. And they are making potentially hundreds of millions of dollars charging fees, [2:35] two million dollars per boat that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. In that way, they are holding [2:42] hostage the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia. And so you've created a situation which is much, much [2:50] worse for America and its allies, much, much better for Iran. Yes, they are militarily in [2:57] very bad shape, but they have enough power to do what I just described, which is to say, [3:03] it seems to me to be a very, very difficult situation to spin as a win for the United States or its [3:10] allies. You say Iran, they have enough power. The question is, who is they? Because the president, [3:17] I think the third bit of news he made tonight is he flat out said what others have been saying the [3:21] last few days. He said there has been regime change. The regime has changed in Iran, and he's [3:27] claiming the regime now is much more reasonable. So how accurate is that assessment? [3:33] Well, I mean, it's frankly makes absolutely no sense. I don't mean to be disrespectful, but [3:41] look, when you say regime change, what you are referring to is the system of government. [3:46] The system of government in Iran is fully in place. The people who have replaced the old [3:51] office holders appear to be more hardline, more militaristic. They are the ones who [3:58] blocked the Strait of Hormuz. They are the ones who attacked Saudi Arabia and the UAE and [4:04] Qatar. They are the ones who blocked the Strait of Hormuz. They are the ones who attacked Saudi [4:05] Arabia and the UAE and Qatar. They are the ones who attacked Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Qatar. [4:05] They are the ones who are refusing to open the Strait of Hormuz. So how you can claim this is a [4:12] new regime, I don't understand. How you can claim they're being more reasonable while at the same [4:16] time you're admitting they're not coming to a deal. How can they be so reasonable if they're [4:22] not coming to an agreement? The whole thing makes no sense. And I think, frankly, it's just a [4:27] political spin. It would be like saying that the United States had a regime change when, you know, [4:34] when one party changes control of the House of Representatives. That is not what regime change [4:40] means. What regime change means is what President Trump implied in his declaration of war, which was [4:46] that the people of Iran will rise up, throw out this regime, put in place presumably a democracy. [4:53] I'd say there's a very simple test of whether there is regime change in Iran, whether it has [4:58] taken place. Go ask an Iranian in Tehran. Go ask any of the people who have been in Iran for a [5:04] long time, whether they have suffered through this regime for four and a half decades, whether [5:08] they think there's been regime change. And I think they will tell you, no, the same clerical [5:14] military regime that has been oppressing them for the last 47 years is still firmly in place. [5:21] Fareed Zakaria, thank you so much for being with us. [5:24] As always, a pleasure. [5:25] And with us now, New York Times White House correspondent Maggie Haberman. Maggie, [5:29] the White House announced just a few minutes ago the president's going to address the nation [5:33] tomorrow night at 9 p.m. [5:35] Iran. I know this news just broke a few minutes ago, but you have any idea what we can expect him [5:40] to say? I don't think that he is likely to say. But again, John, it's President Trump and we have [5:46] heard various versions of what the U.S. could do over the last days and weeks, frankly. And as you [5:53] noted earlier in the show, it is still within the four to six week time frame. I don't expect that [5:57] he is going to say, yes, we are there for the long haul. I don't expect that he is going to say [6:02] we're going to go, you know, send ground forces in to overtake Karg Island. But [6:07] obviously, anything is possible. Everything that he has indicated, including what he said today, [6:12] is that he wants to start wrapping this up in terms of the U.S. involvement. There are, [6:18] you know, aspects of this campaign that the U.S. can point to as success in terms of [6:23] degrading aspects of Iran's military equipment, in terms of degrading aspects of their of their [6:30] Navy, their air fleet. But, you know, is it a regime change, as Fareed said? Certainly, [6:37] not. [6:37] In terms of, you know, what the country actually looks like. This doesn't seem like it's trending [6:41] toward a democracy. It's a theocracy of 90 million people and has been for many decades now, number [6:46] one. But number two, Iran does have a say in this. And so if what ends up happening is the [6:51] Strait of Hormuz is still closed, even if, you know, there are some permissions allowed, that's [6:56] different than what it was before. And if there is no agreement about the nuclear enrichment [7:01] stockpile, the U.S. is going to be back here at some point, most likely, no matter what. [7:06] Maggie, what are you hearing? [7:07] What are you hearing is going on behind the scenes with the mixed, sometimes conflicting [7:10] messages. Just take the Strait of Hormuz, for instance. Yesterday morning, when I was on TV, [7:14] he put out this statement saying if Iran doesn't open it immediately, we're going to bomb oil [7:18] plants, desalination plants, et cetera, et cetera. And today, he's saying really the exact opposite, [7:24] that we don't need the Strait open. It's not our problem. [7:29] I don't think it is a deep strategy, John, other than the fact that the president on a basic, [7:34] you know, cellular level likes to keep people off balance and likes to preserve what people, [7:39] who have known him for a long time, would describe as optionality. And that certainly [7:43] is optionality. It's just hard to do optionality moment to moment with a military that has to go, [7:48] you know, to the Middle East. And that takes days to get a fleet in place and people contract [7:52] movements and so forth. I know you see this. We all see this. This is much more of a one-man [7:59] ban presidency than what we saw in term one. It is a very small group of advisors around him. [8:05] There are fewer leaks that come out. It doesn't mean that they don't happen at all. But, you know, [8:09] he's a tighter group. And in general, they want to see him succeed. Unlike, you know, term one, [8:16] where people either, you know, actively wanted to stop him or disagreed with what he was doing. [8:21] In this case, he is running his own show. You will notice that you do not see a lot of people [8:27] leaning out ahead of him, other than when you see Pete Hegseth, who is clearly very strongly [8:32] a voice for military action against Iran. And you've seen that over and over again. [8:35] That's also true behind the scenes. But he doesn't say anything that would, [8:39] you know, upset the president or jostle the president. Generally, what you see either [8:43] the White House press office say or the, you know, the Secretary of Defense say or [8:49] others say is the press is trying to harm President Trump by, you know, evaluating this [8:55] war as anything other than the success that he says it is. So there's not some grander thing [9:00] happening here. He is reacting and he is engaging and he is trying to keep people off balance. And [9:04] we will have a better sense of what his plan is tomorrow night. Again, I just don't know what it [9:08] means in terms of what Iran will do. [9:09] Thank you very much for joining us.