Experts decode Iran supreme leader's new warning

[0:00] Well, as war with the U.S. and Israel nears the 60-day mark, Iran's tone is becoming increasingly [0:05] defiant. According to state media, the country's supreme leader is warning there's no place for [0:10] foreign forces except, quote, the depths of its water. Shabba Khamenei hasn't been seen publicly [0:16] now in seven weeks. And a senior military official has reportedly threatened to respond to further [0:22] U.S. bombing with long and painful strikes. Iran's top judge is also making inflammatory [0:28] statements, too, claiming executions reflect legitimate demands of the people. [0:34] Kareem Sajipour is a CNN Global Affairs analyst, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for [0:38] International Peace, and the man I turn to for all things Iran-related. Kareem, great to have you [0:44] on the program as well. So once again, we hear, we don't see, we hear from the supreme leader, [0:50] Meshama Khamenei, claiming that the grip on the strait will bring economic progress. When we look [0:55] at the reality, though, in Iran right now, inflation is at 70 percent. The rial hit a record low. Is his [1:03] threshold for pain at this point higher than his father's? Or is this a scenario where they're really [1:10] starting to feel the squeeze? How are you interpreting this? [1:13] It's a great question, Biana. And what's significant is that we haven't seen Meshama Khamenei since he was [1:21] named supreme leader, and we haven't even heard his voice. So that unto itself is pretty significant, [1:27] that ostensibly the most powerful man in Iran hasn't been seen or heard from. And his messages [1:33] publicly are always bellicose, always projecting strength. But in reality, when you speak to people [1:40] in Tehran, this is a society and an economy which even before this war had been decimated. We saw [1:47] last January massive national protests because of the country's increasing economic bankruptcy. [1:55] And obviously, this war has only amplified those economic vulnerabilities. So there is a huge gap [2:01] here between Iran's public statements projecting strength and confidence and the realities of an [2:08] economy which is really floundering. As we know, President Trump is set to receive a briefing from [2:16] U.S. Central Command, just really on the military options in terms of dealing with Iran. Karim, [2:22] can you hear me? Because I saw you touch your earpiece there. Can you hear me? Okay, good. [2:26] So just in terms of what those options, A, are, and B, what is actually going to get Iran back to [2:33] the negotiation table in a way that allows the U.S. to have the most leverage? What makes sense [2:40] in terms of President Trump's options at this point? Because obviously, this is an existential [2:44] threat for Iran. And that means that they are going to be willing to hold on for as long as it takes. [2:52] So, Zain, the way I think about this, the metaphor I think about is essentially two adversaries with [2:57] their hands on one another's throats. Iran is trying to choke the global economy. It's obviously [3:05] its entire strategy is to spike the price of oil. So American citizens will put pressure on President [3:12] Trump to end this war. And in retaliation, President Trump has his hands on Iran's throat, [3:20] trying to choke the Iranian economy and trying to force this regime to capitulate. [3:26] And the process is, it's obviously a test of wills. It's a test of resolve. And that process on its [3:34] own could take many more weeks, if not months. And so I think President Trump is trying to expedite [3:41] that process, trying to get Iran to the negotiating table by threatening more military action. [3:48] Doesn't seem, however, that there are going to be any silver bullets which quickly end this war. [3:55] You know, my view is that we're probably looking at months ahead of this test of resolve. And even [4:05] when and if we get back to the negotiating table, we're probably looking at months of negotiations, [4:10] based on what we know of 47 year history of Iran's negotiating posture. [4:15] And as we've heard from the Secretary of State, the President himself, Iran, they're very capable, [4:21] very good negotiators, given all of their years of experience. There's reports of perhaps a new proposal [4:26] that Iran will be presenting as soon as Friday. But Karim, going back to your earlier point that we have [4:31] yet to see or hear from Mashtaba Khomeini at this point, so many weeks later, does that tell you, [4:39] are you hearing from sources? Because there are rumors that he may not even be alive or be in a position [4:45] of making decisions. And if he's not the one making decisions, is it the IRGC head, Ahmed Vahidi, [4:53] who is in charge right now? [4:55] So, Bianna, as an institution, the institution that is ruling Iran now is the Revolutionary Guards. [5:03] When this regime began in 1979, it was the clergy, the clerics who were ruling Iran. And over the last two [5:10] decades, the country has transformed from a clerical dictatorship to a military dictatorship. Now, [5:16] when Mashtaba's father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was ruling, he was still at the top of that power [5:22] pyramid. It was a cleric ruling Iran, but all of his most important appointees were Revolutionary Guard [5:31] commanders. Now, what is frankly not clear from afar is to what extent is Mashtaba actively involved in [5:39] major decisions. We don't really know the state of his health. There's a lot of mixed rumors about [5:44] that. But yes, indeed, we know that Ahmed Vahidi, Revolutionary Guard commander, is an important [5:50] player. Mohamed Baghir Qalibov, current Speaker of Parliament. When you look at, let's say, the top 10, [5:56] 15, top 10 or 15 men ruling Iran, probably two thirds, three quarters of them are men who have military [6:04] backgrounds, not clerics. And one additional thing I'd like to say here, Bianna, is that when people [6:10] talk about the Iranian regime being great negotiators, you know, my response to that is that it's easy [6:17] to be a tough negotiator when you don't care about the well-being of your people. If you're willing to [6:22] subject your people to enormous hardship rather than make any compromise, well, you could say that's [6:28] being a tough negotiator, but you're not really advancing the interests or well-being of your nation. [6:33] I do want to read you a statement we just got in a few minutes ago. This is from the new supreme [6:38] leader in Iran, Moshtaba Khamenei, who put out a statement, I should say, it's on paper, [6:42] it's a paper statement. We still have not seen him for the entire duration of this conflict, [6:46] but he talked about Iran entering a new stage on the Strait of Hormuz. We said we and our neighbors [6:52] across the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman share a common destiny and foreign actors who come from [6:56] thousands of kilometers away with greedy intentions have no place here except in the depths of the waters. [7:02] This chain of victory is achieved by the grace of God and through the policies of resistance and [7:06] the strategy of strong Iran marks the beginning of a new regional and global order. What do you [7:12] think he's saying here and what does it mean for the next weeks, months, years in the Strait of Hormuz? [7:22] Look, the goals of this war in Iran were not clearly set from the beginning. President Trump [7:26] talked a lot about regime change and instead by killing the Ayatollah, what he's gotten is Ayatollah 2.0, [7:33] his son, angrier, more determined to resist and a more repressive IRGC rather than regime change. [7:40] And what the new Ayatollah statement is suggesting is that they now know they've got a new weapon. [7:46] Their ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and impact the economy of the world, not just the United [7:52] States, is every bit as powerful a weapon in the hands of the Ayatollah and his repressive and brutal [7:58] regime as would be a potential nuclear weapon. So he's threatening Donald Trump. He knows that we [8:04] don't have the capacity to withstand months and months, maybe years of oil soaring and of the [8:11] other costs that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz are imposing. It's spring planning time. [8:16] Fertilizer costs are going up. Helium is necessary for semiconductor manufacturing. That's also critically [8:23] comes to the Strait of Hormuz. John the Ayatollah is flexing his muscles. And even though President [8:29] Trump thinks that they've been beaten, declares this war over and a military success, the Ayatollah [8:35] is making it clear that his regime intends to resist. It's frankly alarming that they are determined to [8:44] continue to resist, but utterly unsurprising. Nick, there is a blockade on a blockade [8:52] in the Strait of Hormuz. And that is having an enormous impact on the price of oil, of gas, [8:59] of other petrochemical products. We know this. The global economy is suffering as a result of it. [9:05] What more are we learning today about Iran's thinking and US thinking about what happens next? [9:16] Yeah, you're right. It's a blockade on a blockade on both sides thinking that thinking they're putting [9:21] pain, economic pain on the other side. And both sides are thinking the other side is going to crack [9:26] under this pain first. President Trump from the economic pain of the escalating [9:34] impact on the global economy and on the price of gas, the pumps and forecourts in the United States. [9:40] And the language has been very uncompromising and tough. The Iranian leadership today is celebrating [9:45] what it's calling National Persian Gulf Day. It's the day they're celebrating when they liberated [9:52] the Persian Gulf and their occupation as they saw it from the Portuguese 400 or so years ago, 1622. [10:01] And to that point, there have been statements from the supreme leader or statements that purport to [10:07] come from him. And absolutely, the Strait of Hormuz and what happens to it is at the core of that. [10:13] You know, he points to the Portuguese occupation and points at the Americans today and says, [10:18] that's pretty much the same thing. They're greedy. They're coming here to take what's ours. And the [10:23] place for them is at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. He goes on to point out in Gulf countries, [10:28] by the way, that you had US bases, but they didn't provide you security. But I think the line here [10:35] that really circles back and doubles down on what we've heard from Iranian leaders before [10:39] is the notion that Iran wants to have new economic controls over the Strait of Hormuz. He calls them [10:47] administration that he says will bring economic benefit for the Iranians. And I think, you know, [10:53] there's a sort of a trolling backwards and forwards as well. You've heard from the Speaker of the [10:57] Parliament, the chief negotiator, Galibaf. He has put on X a tweet that's aimed at Scott Besant, [11:06] the Treasury Secretary in the U.S., and said, look, three days, our wells didn't explode. Of course, [11:12] the theory was blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Iran couldn't export its oil. Therefore, [11:17] it couldn't store it all. Therefore, it would have problems in its oil fields sort of containing [11:24] and stopping the flow. He said you could put a webcam on there for 30 years, [11:29] for 30 days, rather, and that wouldn't show the blowing up of the wells. And he said, [11:37] so that advice from Scott Besant, he called it junk advice. Look at the price of a barrel of oil now. [11:43] He said $120. So there's really trolling this issue of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade on a [11:50] blockade, the pain on the pain. That's where it stands right now, Becky.