Everything you need to know about the Welsh elections — BBC Newscast

[0:00] Hello, it's Adam in the ElectionCast studio. [0:03] Hello, it's Alex in the makeshift home ElectionCast studio. [0:06] It's Felicity here in the Cardiff newsroom. [0:09] And sitting with me is pollster and director of More in Common, Luke Trill. [0:12] Hello, Luke. [0:13] Hello. [0:14] Now, Luke, on the last episode of ElectionCast, [0:16] we talked about the basics of the different electoral systems [0:19] in Scotland and Wales. [0:22] This year, the Senate is quite tricky to sort of make predictions [0:27] and to look at the data and then join that up [0:29] to potential results. [0:30] Just explain why. [0:32] Well, because the new system has divided the Senate [0:36] into six-member proportional constituencies. [0:41] And what that means is that particularly when it gets [0:45] to the last seats in the Senate, so the fifth and sixth seat, [0:50] very small shares of the vote could mean the difference [0:53] between one party, let's say Reform, winning the fifth or sixth seat [0:57] or Labour and the Greens winning it and other parties just missing out [1:02] getting in there as well. [1:03] So very small changes in the vote, even though it's a proportional system [1:06] which is designed to even out some of those irregularities, [1:10] actually can make a big difference. [1:12] And we'll get into the politics in a second, [1:13] but this is very important stuff. [1:15] And Felicity, does that electoral system and how it can be interpreted [1:20] or how people can behave in different ways, [1:22] is that a feature of the election campaign in Wales? [1:24] It's interesting, Adam. [1:26] I think it's an open question as to what extent voters in Wales [1:29] actually realise that there is this new election system [1:32] that they're going to have to try to get their heads around [1:35] on polling day on May the 7th. [1:38] A colleague of mine was actually on the train the other day [1:40] and heard someone blaring out an explainer video [1:44] of this new election system. [1:46] So, you know, maybe that's the way to put it on the radar [1:48] of ordinary voters, is to just go on public transport [1:51] and very antisocially just force them to learn about it. [1:55] But other than that, obviously, we here at BBC Wales [1:58] and on Walescast and our colleagues in other broadcast media here [2:03] are trying to talk about it and explain it. [2:05] But it is very complex because it's difficult to predict [2:09] and also because some of the parties, [2:12] particularly the parties that are doing really well in the polls, [2:15] are trying to sell a kind of two-horse race message. [2:18] So, for example, Plaid Cymru, which is doing really well in the polls, [2:22] is saying vote Plaid to stop reform. [2:25] And, of course, if you remember, that happened under the old [2:28] first-past-the-post system in the Kefili by-election last year. [2:31] And Plaid Cymru won that seat. [2:33] Reform didn't. [2:34] So Plaid are really sort of trading on that. [2:37] But, of course, that's the old voting system. [2:39] And Reform, similarly, are saying if you want to stop the independents, [2:43] if you want to stop the pro-independence party like Plaid, vote reform. [2:47] The other parties, the smaller ones, and Labour, [2:51] which is doing less well these days, as we talked about last week, [2:54] is saying, no, no, no, that's not the way to talk about this. [2:57] Your vote will count whoever you vote for. [3:00] So it's really difficult to get consistent messaging on this for voters. [3:04] And I think it's going to be a lot for voters to understand [3:06] in the next few weeks. [3:07] And, Alex, that's a reminder that one of the last times [3:10] the whole UK tuned into Welsh politics [3:12] was for that Kefili by-election. [3:14] And that was a reminder that we just got there from Felicity, [3:17] that you can't just take that as a... [3:19] You can't just read across from that to this set of elections. [3:23] No, you definitely can't. [3:24] And I think it's probably fair to say that [3:26] you should always urge caution in reading across from any by-election [3:29] to a national set of elections, [3:31] because by-elections, by their very nature, [3:34] people can often vote in a different way, [3:37] or the campaigns can be run in a different way, [3:39] parties respond in a different way, [3:40] because there's just one single election in a moment in time, [3:44] as opposed to when you're voting for a government. [3:47] So you should never read across, [3:48] but there is that added layer [3:50] in that it is a different voting system. [3:51] Having said that, [3:53] I think in terms of the sort of politics [3:55] and the feel of the parties [3:57] as they're heading into these really important set of elections, [4:00] that Kefili by-election [4:01] was a really symbolic, important moment, [4:05] because what it did was crystallise in real electoral terms [4:09] when people had gone to the polls [4:11] and had their say in a by-election, [4:12] what a lot of people had been assuming [4:14] and talking about for some time, [4:16] and that was just the jeopardy [4:18] that Labour is potentially facing in Wales right now. [4:20] We will talk about Labour in a second with Luke, [4:23] because you've done a lot of polling at More In Common [4:24] that can shed a light on just what might be going on there. [4:28] But Alex, just remind us [4:29] the main players of the main parties in Wales. [4:32] Yeah, so Labour have dominated in Welsh politics for forever. [4:36] I don't think it's too much of an overstatement to say. [4:40] So ever since devolution, [4:41] Labour has come out as the biggest party in the Senedd, [4:43] but even before that, [4:44] Labour was the biggest party in Wales for over 100 years. [4:48] So Labour has been the dominant force [4:50] in Welsh politics for some time. [4:51] In this election, [4:52] it feels at this stage like things are really shifting. [4:55] So two of the main challenges are, [4:58] exactly as Felicity said, [4:59] to have Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. [5:02] And alongside that, [5:03] you've got the Conservatives. [5:05] And there's a question about [5:05] how well the Conservatives will do [5:07] in this set of elections, [5:08] because, you know, [5:09] actually in the last set of Senedd elections, [5:11] the Conservatives came second. [5:13] So they too have a real presence in Wales. [5:15] And then you've got the Greens [5:16] and the Liberal Democrats. [5:17] So there's a whole lot of choice out there [5:19] in this set of elections. [5:20] And I think what is really important about them [5:22] and makes it, [5:23] I mean, of course, [5:24] these elections are always important [5:25] because it's about choosing [5:26] who is going to govern Wales. [5:28] But beyond that, [5:29] this set of elections [5:29] is attracting a lot of attention [5:32] because it feels like [5:33] that things are much less certain [5:35] or can be assumed [5:36] in a way that they have typically been in the past [5:39] because of that Welsh Labour dominance [5:41] for such a long period, [5:42] which there is now a question mark hanging over. [5:44] And Felicity, [5:45] remind us the name of all the party leaders in Wales. [5:47] OK, so we have Sreena Pjodworth, [5:49] who is the Plaid Cymru leader. [5:51] Then we have Dan Thomas, [5:53] who is the leader of reform in Wales. [5:56] We have Elinad Morgan, [5:57] who is the Welsh Labour leader [5:59] and up until now has been the first minister in Wales. [6:03] Darren Miller is the Welsh Conservative leader. [6:07] Jane Dodds is the Welsh Liberal Democrat leader. [6:10] And Anthony Slaughter is the Wales Green Party leader. [6:14] Always feel like we're playing a game of Cluedo there [6:16] and you're just handing out the characters. [6:18] No insinuations about any crimes implied there at all. [6:22] So we're recording this episode on Thursday afternoon. [6:25] On Thursday morning, [6:26] Plaid Cymru launched their manifesto, [6:28] which means we've got all of them [6:29] apart from the Liberal Democrats. [6:31] So we'll reflect the Liberal Democrats on another episode. [6:36] Felicity, rather than getting you to read out [6:37] a whole load of pledges [6:38] from five different political parties, [6:40] are there some sort of big themes that emerge, [6:43] some big dividing lines [6:44] now that we've actually seen those manifestos [6:45] in black and white? [6:46] It's interesting. [6:47] The extent to which we're sort of seeing [6:49] the parties split along right and left block lines, actually. [6:54] A lot of them are in agreement [6:55] about what the big issues are that are facing Wales. [6:59] And indeed, we had our first sort of audiences [7:01] asking leaders questions event last night. [7:05] And the topics that came up there [7:07] are the ones really that we have been expecting would. [7:11] So the state of the NHS in Wales is a really big issue. [7:15] The cost of living is a really big issue. [7:18] And those are the two which have really dominated [7:20] the debate so far. [7:22] So what we've been seeing from all of the parties [7:25] are plans to try to tackle the length of waiting lists [7:29] in the Welsh NHS, for example. [7:31] And most of them are talking about putting more money into the NHS [7:38] in order to do that, although not all of them. [7:40] I mean, Dan Thomas of Reform has said that he doesn't think [7:44] just putting more money in is the answer. [7:47] And indeed, other parties as well have been talking about [7:49] trying to improve the productivity of the NHS. [7:52] Plaid, for example, this morning, talking about new surgical hubs. [7:56] The Welsh Conservatives have been doing that as well. [7:58] But where you see them kind of diverging, really, [8:01] is along cost of living lines. [8:04] So on Welsh rates of income tax, this is the first election in Wales [8:08] where we're really seeing an offer on income tax becoming an issue. [8:13] And arguably, this is the first sort of real cost of living [8:17] Senev election, because the last one was in 2021. [8:20] One, we were still in the pandemic, really, [8:23] so the cost of living pressures hadn't really filtered in. [8:27] But what we have is the Conservatives saying [8:30] they will take a penny off the basic rate of income tax. [8:34] Reforms saying they will take a penny off all the rates of income tax. [8:40] So, you know, basic, higher and additional. [8:42] Then we have Welsh Labour saying that they will freeze [8:46] the Welsh rate of income tax. [8:47] In other words, that they won't increase it. [8:50] The Greens aren't really talking about income tax as such. [8:54] They're talking about reforming other sorts of tax, like council tax. [8:58] The Liberal Democrats are talking about potentially putting a penny [9:02] on income tax in order to pay more for social care [9:06] and take pressure off the NHS that way. [9:10] And I've forgotten somebody here. [9:14] And I think I've mentioned the Liberal Democrats. [9:16] I've mentioned the Greens. [9:18] I've mentioned... [9:19] Oh, Plaid Cymru, that's it. [9:20] Whose manifesto came out this morning. [9:21] So you would think that would be freshly baked in my head, wouldn't you? [9:25] What Plaid is saying on income tax [9:26] is actually that they want more powers to vary it. [9:30] In Scotland, not only can they vary the rates of income tax [9:34] within certain thresholds in a band, [9:37] but they can also vary the bands themselves. [9:39] So in Scotland, you have a lot more income tax bands [9:42] than we do here in Wales. [9:44] We have exactly the same as in England. [9:46] Plaid is saying that isn't really suitable for Wales [9:48] where wages tend to be lower than in England. [9:51] So they want the power, actually, to vary the bands as well, [9:54] which they say would then give them more freedom [9:57] to adopt a more appropriate policy for Wales. [10:00] But this is really the first election [10:01] where voters can choose between parties offering cuts, [10:04] parties offering increases, [10:05] parties guaranteeing no increases and so on. [10:08] And Felicity, just to be clear, [10:09] is it that the Welsh government has the power [10:11] to control up to 10% of the tax rate on each band? [10:16] 10% in each band, that's right. [10:18] And they've had that power for some years, Adam, [10:20] but really it's never been exercised [10:23] and hasn't really been an election issue up to this point. [10:26] This time it certainly is [10:28] and it's certainly one that's under discussion. [10:30] And Luke, when you hear those various offers [10:32] from the various parties, [10:33] can you see them connecting their offers [10:35] to certain demands made by certain groups of voters? [10:39] Does that make sense? [10:40] I mean, yeah, I mean, absolutely. [10:42] And, you know, that notion of blocks [10:45] that Felicity was talking about, [10:47] I think is really important [10:48] because obviously the headline is looking like [10:51] a battle between reform and Plaid for first place. [10:54] But actually where most of the parties [10:56] will get their votes from are within their blocks. [10:59] So you've got Labour, Plaid and the Greens [11:02] basically playing for left voters. [11:04] So it's no surprise that they're talking about [11:06] different rates of tax, [11:07] potentially higher rates of tax. [11:09] And then on the right, [11:10] you've got reform and the Conservatives [11:12] battling for the more economically conservative voters [11:15] and playing off against one another there. [11:19] And of course, what reform wants to do [11:20] is convince people, you know, [11:22] the Welsh Conservatives are done. [11:24] If you want a right-leaning Welsh government, [11:26] you've got to vote for us. [11:28] Conservatives obviously want to say, [11:29] look, no, we're still in the game. [11:31] On the flip side, what Plaid will want to do [11:34] is basically, even though it's a proportional system, [11:37] try and mirror what happened in the Kefili by-election [11:40] and really put the squeeze on Labour [11:43] and start to say, look, [11:44] we are the ones that can stop reform [11:46] emerging with the most seats. [11:48] So yes, it's a battle between blocks, [11:50] but perhaps most importantly, [11:51] a battle within those blocks. [11:54] And Alex, what echoes and hints of national politics [11:57] are you picking up? [11:58] I guess there's a couple of things to say. [12:00] I think it's interesting [12:01] because as Felicity was talking about there [12:03] with that first leaders' questions event [12:06] that has been held, [12:08] the issues that seem to keep cropping up, [12:10] and Luke will be able to speak to this more than I do, [12:12] but the issues that seem to be cropping up [12:14] across the board have huge echoes. [12:16] It is about the cost of living. [12:18] It is about the economy. [12:19] It is about public services and notably the NHS. [12:22] And it is about immigration. [12:24] And I think, you know, [12:25] no matter where you are in the United Kingdom, [12:27] if you get to vote in this set of elections, [12:29] there are going to be kind of echoes of those issues [12:31] because they seem to be the things [12:32] that are at the forefront of voters' minds. [12:35] But the other kind of interesting bit [12:36] about this election in Wales [12:38] is that there's also the sort of incumbency question as well. [12:42] So when people are looking for answers [12:44] to those issues that they care about, [12:46] whether it's on the cost of living [12:47] or whether it's on public services, [12:49] the question is, [12:50] are the parties able to make an argument [12:52] about have they got the answers? [12:54] And for Labour in Wales, for example, [12:56] it is about the fact [12:56] they've been in power in Wales for so long. [12:59] And now there is also a Labour government in Westminster. [13:02] What does that do to the argument [13:03] that they are then making to people [13:05] about whether they've got the solutions [13:06] to the problems that people are raising with them? [13:10] And Luke, the polling jargon for that, [13:12] although I suppose it's actually jargon [13:13] across all the politics, [13:14] is double incumbency. [13:16] Yeah, and Labour are really suffering [13:17] because of that double incumbency effect. [13:20] Because, I mean, if you look, [13:22] basically elections in the UK since Brexit, [13:24] they've been votes for change, right? [13:26] You know, Brexit's a vote for change. [13:28] 2019 Boris Johnson is a vote for change [13:30] we've talked about before. [13:31] 2024 vote for change. [13:32] Now, if you ask voters in Wales, [13:35] you know, do they want change [13:36] or do they want to stick with the plan? [13:38] Eight in ten say that they want change. [13:41] And when you're in power in Westminster [13:43] and the Zenith, [13:44] if eight in ten want change, [13:46] it's going to be very difficult [13:47] for you to hold on. [13:48] And that's what our polling is finding, [13:50] is that Labour are really suffering [13:52] from this incumbency effect. [13:53] I mean, Alex is absolutely right. [13:55] It is, you know, cost of living, [13:56] NHS, immigration, the same everywhere. [13:58] And people are saying, [13:58] look, these things aren't getting better [14:00] fast enough. [14:02] And unfortunately for Eleanor Morgan, [14:05] you know, she is suffering [14:05] as a result of that. [14:07] That's why you're seeing Labour [14:09] in third place in lots of these polls. [14:12] I think there's another challenge, though, [14:14] which I think is really interesting [14:16] that comes up with polling. [14:16] It's not only that double incumbency effect, [14:20] but that people are less likely [14:22] to think that Welsh Labour [14:24] is able to be sufficiently independent [14:27] from the Westminster government. [14:30] So, and actually less likely [14:32] to be independent [14:32] than Scottish Labour are, for instance. [14:35] So what we find is, you know, [14:36] in Scotland, it's about four in ten, [14:38] say that they trust Anas Sawa [14:40] to stand up to Keir Starmer. [14:42] That drops to 27% [14:45] when you're talking about [14:46] Eleanor Morgan in Wales. [14:48] So all of those factors [14:49] kind of coming together. [14:51] And I think, you know, [14:52] if you are Welsh Labour, [14:53] I think you could be [14:54] understandably disgruntled [14:57] because actually when you ask, [14:58] you know, voters, [14:59] who are you most angry against? [15:01] Why have you left Labour? [15:02] So Labour's holding on to [15:04] only about 45% [15:05] of its general election vote in Wales. [15:08] And when we ask why... [15:09] Oh, it's lost half. [15:10] It's lost over half. [15:11] More than half. [15:11] More than half of the vote. [15:13] It's going in all sorts of directions, [15:15] the biggest chunk going to apply. [15:17] But when you ask those switchers, [15:19] why are you switching? [15:20] They tend to blame [15:21] the Westminster government [15:23] rather than the Welsh government [15:25] for them making that switch, [15:26] even though it's a Welsh government election. [15:28] But it was ever thus. [15:29] And Felicity, [15:30] it does seem to me that Eleanor Morgan [15:32] stays quite loyal to Keir Starmer. [15:34] For example, [15:34] she didn't join Anas Sawa in Scotland [15:36] in calling for him to resign. [15:38] She didn't. [15:38] She's been treading a bit of a tightrope [15:41] on this sort of thing, really, Adam, [15:43] because during the general election campaign, [15:48] one of the big arguments in Wales, [15:50] one of the big arguments [15:51] that Labour politicians, [15:53] including Welsh Labour politicians, [15:54] were putting to the electorate was, [15:56] won't it be great [15:58] if we're in power in Westminster [16:00] and in power in Cardiff Bay [16:02] because we'll be able to work together [16:04] for the benefit of Wales? [16:08] Now, there were a lot of us [16:09] who kind of raised an eyebrow [16:10] to that argument [16:13] because it has been the case [16:15] that for many years, [16:17] while the Conservatives [16:18] were in power in Westminster, [16:19] Welsh Labour governments, [16:21] successive Welsh Labour governments, [16:22] made a really good job [16:24] of sort of pointing down the M4 [16:26] and saying, [16:27] well, all of these problems [16:29] aren't really our fault. [16:30] It's their fault [16:31] for not giving us enough money [16:33] or for not giving us the powers [16:34] to do X, Y, and Z [16:35] or what have you. [16:36] And it was easy for them [16:37] to position themselves [16:38] against the Westminster government. [16:41] But, of course, [16:41] once the same party [16:43] is in power in Westminster, [16:45] that becomes very difficult. [16:46] And, of course, [16:47] it's doubly difficult [16:48] if you've made a big argument [16:50] in the general election [16:51] saying, hey, guys, [16:52] isn't it going to be great [16:53] if we can all govern together [16:54] because you're all going to notice [16:56] such great differences? [16:58] So what we've seen [16:59] is Elinad Morgan [17:00] really trying to pick [17:01] her battles [17:01] with Keir Starmer. [17:03] In some cases, [17:05] she's been critical. [17:07] In other cases, [17:09] she's tried to be more [17:10] team Labour, as it were. [17:12] Under the surface [17:12] within Welsh Labour, [17:15] there is undoubtedly tension [17:17] between Welsh Labour politicians [17:19] at Westminster level [17:21] versus those at Cardiff Bay [17:23] about where the problems [17:25] for underperformance may lie, [17:27] whether people are [17:28] on the same page [17:29] when they should be [17:30] and all of that. [17:31] But just to pick up [17:31] on one other point there [17:32] that Luke was making [17:34] about people focusing [17:35] on Westminster issues [17:37] for this election, [17:39] it is difficult, really, [17:40] for all the parties [17:41] on an issue like cost of living, [17:43] which is obviously [17:44] a huge issue [17:45] for so many people [17:46] because so many of the levers [17:47] to deal with cost of living, [17:49] the benefit system [17:50] is an obvious example, [17:52] lie with politicians [17:53] in Westminster, [17:54] not politicians [17:55] in Cardiff Bay. [17:56] So, you know, [17:57] what we are seeing [17:58] with the manifestos [17:59] that have been launched [18:00] so far is the parties [18:01] really trying to find [18:03] other levers [18:03] that they do have power over [18:05] that they can offer [18:06] to voters [18:06] that they say [18:07] will help to take [18:08] the edges off. [18:09] So we're seeing [18:10] virtually all of them, [18:11] except the Greens actually, [18:13] making big promises [18:14] to expand childcare [18:15] because they're aware [18:16] of how expensive [18:17] childcare is [18:18] for families [18:20] with young children. [18:21] Questions around [18:22] council tax [18:23] are featuring very heavily. [18:24] We have some parties, [18:26] the Welsh Conservatives, [18:27] reform saying [18:27] that they will cap [18:28] council tax. [18:29] We have Welsh Labour [18:30] and Plaid Cymru [18:31] saying they will make it fairer [18:34] and there is a revaluation [18:35] planned in 2028 [18:37] here in Wales, actually. [18:38] And then we have the Greens [18:39] saying they'll scrap it [18:40] all together [18:41] and introduce a land value tax. [18:43] So the sorts of arguments [18:44] that we're trying to see [18:45] the parties position themselves [18:46] in here [18:47] on a UK-wide issue [18:49] like cost of living [18:49] is very different, actually, [18:51] to what you would [18:52] likely see on this issue [18:53] in a general election campaign. [18:55] And Felicity, [18:56] just to go back [18:57] to the personality thing [18:58] and the Cluedo cards, [18:59] I'm guessing that means [19:00] the politics, [19:02] that there's very little [19:03] Keir Starmer [19:04] on the campaign trail [19:05] but maybe quite a lot [19:06] of Nigel Farage [19:06] and Zach Belansky. [19:08] Yes. [19:08] I mean, [19:09] given Keir Starmer's [19:10] popularity ratings [19:11] or unpopularity ratings [19:13] would perhaps be [19:14] a better way to put it [19:15] and I know Luke can [19:15] speak more to this [19:17] than I can, [19:18] but he's a bit [19:18] of a ball and chain, [19:20] really, [19:20] around Ilyn Ed Morgan's [19:22] ankle in this election campaign [19:23] and he hasn't really [19:25] featured very much [19:26] at all in this campaign. [19:28] There was, [19:29] just before the campaign started, [19:31] he came to Cardiff [19:32] for a big announcement [19:33] on rail funding. [19:34] There has been [19:35] a lot of resentment [19:36] here in Wales [19:37] about a lack [19:38] of consequential funding [19:40] for the HS2 project [19:41] that you're getting [19:42] in England. [19:44] Rail infrastructure [19:45] is not devolved in Wales. [19:47] It's devolved in Scotland [19:48] and it's devolved [19:48] in Northern Ireland. [19:49] So they have had [19:50] millions and in some cases [19:52] billions of pounds worth [19:54] of extra funding, [19:55] consequential funding [19:56] as it's called, [19:57] because of the amount [19:58] of money that's been spent [19:59] on HS2 in England. [20:01] Wales has had [20:02] none of that [20:03] even though there's [20:04] not a centimetre [20:05] of HS2 track [20:06] being laid here. [20:07] And that has been [20:09] something that has been [20:10] a cause of great resentment [20:11] and criticised [20:12] by virtually all [20:13] of the political parties [20:15] at some point or another [20:16] over the last decade. [20:17] Now, what we had [20:19] was Keir Starmer coming [20:20] and making a big promise [20:21] about rail funding [20:22] over the next [20:23] sort of 15 years or so. [20:25] He said there would be [20:25] £14 billion coming. [20:28] Obviously, that was interrogated [20:29] by the other parties [20:30] about, well, you know, [20:31] that's a very long timescale [20:32] and who knows how long [20:33] Keir Starmer's going to be [20:34] Prime Minister for. [20:36] But really, that was [20:37] his only big intervention [20:38] that we've seen [20:39] over the last few months. [20:41] And Luke, talk to [20:42] how popular or unpopular [20:43] UK party leaders [20:45] are in Wales. [20:47] The truth is [20:48] they're all fairly [20:49] underwater [20:49] when it comes to it. [20:51] Oh, it's just all [20:52] relative differences then? [20:53] It is. [20:54] It is. [20:55] But Felicity's [20:56] absolutely right. [20:56] I think ball and chain [20:57] is the right way [20:59] to describe Keir Starmer. [21:02] He is very unpopular [21:03] in Wales. [21:05] But so too, actually, [21:06] I mean, Nigel Farage [21:08] is actually [21:09] underwater as well. [21:12] In Wales, he's less [21:12] unpopular than Keir Starmer, [21:15] Kemi Badenock as well. [21:16] And actually, I mean, [21:17] that's the pattern we see [21:18] UK-wide, actually, [21:21] is that every party leader [21:23] has more people disapproving [21:25] than approving [21:26] of their performance. [21:28] So you can perhaps see [21:29] why the Welsh parties [21:31] have tried to keep it [21:32] as a contest within Wales [21:34] without bringing in [21:35] those GB politicians [21:37] who act as [21:38] negatives for them. [21:40] And I was just, you know, [21:40] looking at some of our [21:41] focus group quotes [21:43] because we've been [21:44] spending quite a lot [21:45] of time in Wales. [21:45] In fact, I'm heading [21:46] back to Merthyr tomorrow [21:47] to chat to voters [21:49] there. [21:51] And I was looking [21:52] at one quote [21:52] which was like, [21:53] I just really want [21:54] more than anything else [21:54] to give Labour [21:55] a bloody nose [21:56] in these elections. [21:57] So you're really [21:58] getting that sense [21:58] voters wanting [21:59] to use this election [22:00] to send a message [22:02] to Keir Starmer. [22:03] I think the interesting [22:04] thing is how big [22:05] is that message [22:06] going to be? [22:06] You know, because [22:07] there's a world in which [22:08] on some of the polling [22:09] you see Welsh Labour [22:10] squeeze so much [22:11] that they even struggle [22:12] with some of those [22:13] final seats [22:14] and getting into [22:16] the Senate. [22:17] I should say, [22:17] our own polling [22:18] is slightly more generous [22:19] to them than that. [22:21] But also, [22:22] and I think, you know, [22:23] this is a story [22:23] which we perhaps [22:25] should focus on more [22:26] is just the growth [22:27] applied [22:28] but also the shift [22:29] in Plaid. [22:30] So one of the things [22:31] that we have found [22:31] in our polling [22:32] is that Plaid's [22:33] supporter base [22:35] has shifted [22:36] quite dramatically [22:37] to the left. [22:38] So when you looked [22:39] at the average [22:39] Plaid voter [22:40] at the last set [22:41] of Welsh elections [22:41] they were basically [22:42] dead in the centre. [22:44] They've now shifted [22:45] to, we use a 10-point scale [22:47] with zero being [22:48] the most left-wing [22:48] to a three or a four. [22:49] So it's not just [22:50] that the party's grown [22:52] it's actually changed [22:53] into a slightly different [22:54] political party as well [22:55] which is quite a [22:55] fascinating dynamic. [22:57] And then that [22:57] dynamic plays out [22:58] at Westminster [22:59] after the results, [23:00] Alex. [23:01] And I suppose [23:01] the direction [23:03] that Keir Starmer [23:03] is pulled in [23:04] depends on the [23:05] performance of [23:06] the left-leaning [23:07] parties in Scotland [23:08] and Wales [23:08] and the performance [23:09] of reform [23:10] in Wales, [23:11] Scotland and England. [23:13] Yeah, it's going [23:13] to be the dilemma [23:14] that has been talked [23:15] about, analysed, [23:16] discussed, debated [23:17] within the Labour Party [23:18] recently really such a lot [23:20] which is [23:20] how does the Labour Party [23:22] respond to what is [23:23] this now sort of [23:24] dual threat [23:25] from the left [23:25] and the right [23:26] and that left [23:27] and right threat [23:28] takes slightly [23:29] different iterations [23:30] depending on where [23:30] you are in the country [23:31] but in Wales [23:32] certainly it's broadly [23:33] characterised [23:34] given where the polls [23:35] are sitting at the moment [23:35] between Plaid [23:36] and reform. [23:38] And so yeah, [23:39] I think it is going to [23:40] completely reignite [23:41] that discussion [23:42] and debate [23:43] within the Labour Party. [23:44] And while I think [23:45] that there is a sort of [23:46] I mean there is [23:47] an awareness [23:47] certainly [23:48] and there has been [23:49] for some time [23:49] within the Labour Party [23:51] about what they're [23:52] potentially facing [23:53] in Wales [23:53] and this kind of [23:55] you know [23:55] dent or collapse [23:56] or whatever it might be [23:58] in what has been [23:59] such a dominant [23:59] part of the United Kingdom [24:01] for so long. [24:02] I think people are aware [24:03] that that could well [24:04] be coming [24:04] but I still think [24:05] there is going to be [24:05] a question to Luke's [24:06] point around the scale [24:07] of that [24:08] and what that tells [24:09] the Labour Party [24:10] or how that shapes [24:11] the mood [24:11] in the Labour Party [24:12] come immediately [24:14] after these elections [24:15] but it's worth remembering [24:16] this isn't all just [24:17] about the Labour Party [24:18] you know there's a lot [24:19] of stake for the other [24:20] parties in this set [24:20] of elections too [24:21] because you know [24:22] Plaid yes has been [24:24] sort of in some sort [24:25] of arrangement [24:26] with Labour and government [24:27] in Wales in the past [24:28] whether it's something [24:28] more formal [24:29] or less formal [24:30] but never before [24:31] have Plaid been in a position [24:32] where they might have [24:33] be the first minister [24:35] in Wales [24:35] so then it becomes [24:36] a question for Plaid [24:37] about A [24:37] can you sustain [24:38] the momentum [24:38] that they appear [24:40] to currently have [24:41] and then B [24:41] what do you do [24:42] if you do end up [24:43] as first minister [24:45] in the Senate [24:45] for reform [24:46] there is a big question [24:47] around momentum [24:48] for them [24:48] in this election [24:50] you know [24:50] again can they sustain [24:52] it and challenges [24:52] they face [24:53] to something Felicity [24:54] mentioned earlier [24:55] about how some [24:56] of the issues [24:56] that are topping [24:57] voter concerns [24:58] aren't necessarily [24:59] things that are [25:00] in the power [25:00] of Welsh politicians [25:01] so for reform [25:03] the key example [25:03] of that would be [25:04] immigration [25:04] you know [25:05] which is not [25:06] a devolved issue [25:07] but something [25:08] that reform [25:08] typically likes [25:09] to talk a lot [25:10] about [25:11] how do they manage [25:12] that in this set [25:12] of elections [25:13] and then questions [25:14] again for example [25:14] the Conservatives [25:15] you know [25:16] as I say [25:16] they came second [25:17] at the last set [25:18] of Senate elections [25:19] and then in the general [25:20] election [25:20] they lost [25:21] every single [25:21] one of their seats [25:22] so for the Conservatives [25:23] there's a question [25:24] of relevance [25:25] for example [25:26] and how well [25:27] they're going to do [25:27] in these elections [25:28] will lend [25:29] a lot of questions [25:30] about how relevant [25:31] they still are [25:32] in Wales [25:32] and then you've got [25:33] the Greens [25:33] and the Liberal Democrats [25:34] and the Greens [25:35] again are trying [25:36] to capitalise [25:36] on what has been [25:37] a sense of momentum [25:38] can they translate [25:39] that into some [25:40] of their first seats [25:41] in the Senate [25:41] and the Liberal Democrats [25:43] can they build [25:44] on what in other [25:44] parts of the country [25:45] they like to think [25:46] is that excellent [25:47] ground game [25:48] that they have [25:49] so you know [25:50] there's inevitably [25:51] a huge focus [25:52] on Labour [25:52] because of the [25:53] dominance of Labour [25:54] in Wales [25:54] and because [25:55] what it would mean [25:56] for the party [25:57] if they were [25:57] to really lose [25:58] that dominance [25:58] in this set of elections [25:59] but I just think [26:00] it's important [26:01] not to forget [26:02] that for every single [26:04] party standing here [26:05] there's an awful lot [26:06] at stake [26:06] and that's why [26:07] this set of elections [26:07] is being so fiercely fought [26:09] and is so fascinating [26:11] to watch [26:11] and look [26:12] you get the sort of [26:13] the whiff [26:14] from Labour [26:15] that because [26:16] these elections [26:17] are happening [26:17] at the time [26:17] of an international [26:18] crisis [26:19] maybe Starmer [26:20] comes out of this [26:21] better than he might [26:22] have done otherwise [26:22] because he gets [26:23] to fly off [26:24] to the UAE [26:25] and look statesman [26:26] like at a time [26:27] of crisis [26:28] is that [26:29] is that a sensible [26:30] thing for Labour [26:31] to be thinking about [26:31] or is that [26:32] a road to nowhere [26:34] well look [26:35] I mean there's [26:35] there's no doubt [26:36] that Starmer [26:36] you know gets [26:37] higher ratings [26:38] for his international [26:38] work than he does [26:39] for his domestic work [26:41] but people [26:41] ultimately vote [26:42] on domestic [26:43] issues [26:44] what we're finding [26:45] in our polling [26:46] when it comes to say [26:47] Keir Starmer's approval [26:48] is that [26:48] you know the floor [26:49] had totally fallen out [26:50] after the Mandelson thing [26:52] you know he was down [26:52] at sort of minus 50 [26:53] in our polling [26:54] he's now back up [26:55] at minus 42 [26:56] and has been there [26:58] back up [26:59] at minus 42 [27:00] and you know [27:00] and way behind [27:01] the other leaders [27:02] so I think there might [27:03] be a bit of what's [27:04] known as copium [27:05] going on [27:07] in that [27:09] which is the cross [27:09] between coping [27:10] and opium [27:11] and opium [27:11] exactly [27:13] and so I think [27:15] it's unlikely [27:15] it will give them [27:16] that boost [27:16] and again [27:17] you know [27:17] if you look [27:17] at the voting [27:18] intention polls [27:19] there has not been [27:20] this love actually bounce [27:22] to use small jargon [27:23] in the sense [27:23] that standing up [27:24] to the US president [27:24] as Hugh Grant did [27:26] in love actually [27:28] would lead to a bounce [27:29] for the Prime Minister [27:29] that doesn't seem [27:30] to be translating [27:31] so as I say [27:31] he's probably not [27:32] right at his floor [27:33] he's got some people back [27:34] probably in terms [27:35] of Westminster dynamics [27:36] means that the chatter [27:37] about replacing him [27:38] during a crisis [27:39] has gone [27:39] but in terms of [27:40] public opinion [27:40] I'm not seeing [27:41] that sort of rally [27:42] around the PM effect [27:44] yeah lots of different [27:45] dynamics to think about [27:46] I think it's really [27:47] difficult to know [27:48] quite how bad [27:49] this election [27:50] will be for Labour [27:51] partly because of that [27:52] point Luke was making [27:53] earlier about the [27:55] tiny margins [27:56] on which those final [27:57] seats in each constituency [27:59] seats five [27:59] and seat six [28:00] might be decided [28:02] so that I think [28:03] the party will be [28:03] pinning a lot of hopes [28:04] on those [28:05] but as in certain [28:07] constituencies [28:07] perhaps will be [28:08] the Lib Dems [28:09] and the Conservatives [28:11] but the other thing [28:13] to say about Labour [28:15] is that when you speak [28:16] to Welsh Labour [28:17] politicians [28:18] who are out pounding [28:18] the pavements [28:19] at the moment [28:20] a lot of them say [28:21] to you all [28:22] I don't get the sense [28:23] it's quite as bad [28:23] as the polls are saying [28:25] you know [28:25] there are a lot of people [28:26] who are undecided [28:28] and a lot of those [28:29] Labour politicians [28:30] are pinning quite a lot [28:31] of hope [28:32] on that group [28:33] of undecideds [28:34] if you like [28:34] what's not really [28:35] clear to me anyway [28:36] is whether that group [28:37] is genuinely undecided [28:39] or whether they're [28:39] just being nice [28:40] and being kind [28:41] to the Labour politicians [28:43] that they're speaking to [28:44] because a lot of the [28:45] Labour campaigners [28:46] you speak to [28:47] are telling you a story [28:48] that doesn't really [28:49] reflect what the [28:50] polling trend [28:51] seems to be suggesting [28:54] and the other thing [28:55] is that although [28:56] this is a more [28:57] proportional system [28:58] this is a really [28:58] important point [28:59] to bear in mind [29:00] in terms of how [29:01] the smaller parties [29:02] particularly the Liberal [29:03] Democrats and the [29:04] Welsh Conservatives [29:05] for whom this is [29:06] looking like a very [29:07] very big uphill [29:08] struggle might fare [29:10] is that although [29:11] it's more proportional [29:12] than the previous [29:13] system it is not [29:14] completely proportional [29:15] and you need to hit [29:16] a threshold [29:17] of around about [29:18] 12% of votes [29:20] in each constituency [29:21] to even start [29:22] winning a seat [29:23] so when you are [29:24] consistently polling [29:25] less than that [29:26] you know that is [29:27] arguably a bit [29:28] of an existential threat [29:29] and there's just [29:30] one other thing [29:30] to chuck in on this [29:31] on the way that this [29:32] I'm fascinated by this [29:34] is how the new [29:35] voting system [29:36] will or won't [29:37] impact on tactical [29:38] voting [29:39] because I think [29:39] there's been a sort [29:40] of consensus [29:41] that we have seen [29:42] a bit more tactical [29:43] voting going on [29:44] in recent sets [29:45] of elections [29:45] and to a point [29:46] that Felicity made [29:47] earlier [29:48] lots of the parties [29:49] are trying to pitch [29:50] themselves as the [29:51] alternative to [29:52] so for example [29:53] you know it might [29:54] be sort of [29:54] Plaid saying [29:55] we are the ones [29:56] who can stop reform [29:56] or reform saying [29:58] that you know [29:58] we are the ones [29:59] that can take on [29:59] Plaid or whatever [30:00] it might be [30:01] but you're sort [30:01] of getting parties [30:02] trying to pitch [30:02] themselves against [30:03] another [30:04] and I just wonder [30:05] that with this new [30:07] voting system [30:08] whether or not [30:09] it will be as clear [30:11] to voters [30:11] if they choose [30:13] to vote tactically [30:14] how they do that [30:15] and also Luke [30:17] just talk to me [30:17] about the difference [30:18] between people [30:19] who answer the question [30:21] in opinion polls [30:22] and the people [30:23] who then actually [30:23] go to the polls [30:24] and actually vote [30:25] because there is [30:26] a big difference here [30:27] well there's a huge [30:29] difference [30:29] and you know [30:30] particularly when it [30:31] comes to low [30:33] turnout elections [30:35] of which the senate [30:36] usually is [30:39] our hardest job [30:41] as pollsters [30:42] is not working out [30:43] who people are [30:43] going to vote for [30:44] it's working out [30:46] who turns out [30:47] in the electorate [30:47] because surprise [30:48] surprise you know [30:49] people answering polls [30:50] like to look virtuous [30:51] they tend to [30:52] over exaggerate [30:53] their likelihood [30:54] of going out to vote [30:55] so that is one of [30:56] the big variables [30:57] and that probably [30:58] explains some of [30:59] the differences [30:59] you're seeing [31:00] between pollsters [31:01] is we all have [31:02] slightly different [31:03] models for what [31:04] the electorate [31:04] will actually look like [31:06] but it's interesting [31:07] to Felicity's point [31:09] about Labour [31:09] saying that they [31:10] just don't [31:10] they don't recognise [31:11] the polls on the [31:12] doorstep [31:12] I remember exactly [31:14] the same thing [31:15] during the Gorton [31:16] by-election [31:17] with Labour [31:18] she said well no [31:18] Arvett looks like [31:19] it's holding up [31:20] pretty well [31:21] and you know [31:21] if people are [31:22] sometimes dishonest [31:23] in polls [31:24] I think they're [31:24] even more so [31:25] on the doorstep [31:26] because you know [31:26] most Brits [31:27] are fundamentally [31:28] polite [31:28] they don't want [31:29] to upset people [31:30] there or so [31:32] they're thinking [31:32] so I wouldn't [31:32] put too much [31:33] stock in that [31:35] but I think it is [31:35] you know [31:36] and there is also [31:37] you know [31:37] again to Alex's point [31:38] the added complication [31:40] of the new electoral [31:41] system I don't think [31:41] can be overstated [31:42] I suspect [31:43] you know [31:44] I may be wrong [31:44] but you know [31:45] the average [31:46] Welsh voter [31:47] doesn't quite have [31:48] in their mind [31:49] how under the [31:49] de Haunt system [31:50] 6th and 7th place [31:51] works [31:52] which means [31:53] they're going to be [31:53] leaning on what [31:54] the parties are saying [31:55] about tactical voting [31:56] but again [31:57] as we saw in that [31:58] Gorton by-election [31:59] they're not always [31:59] honest about that [32:00] either [32:00] so a huge range [32:01] of different complexities [32:02] and you know [32:04] it could be [32:04] I probably shouldn't say [32:05] this actually [32:05] it's probably bad [32:06] for me to say [32:07] but it could be the case [32:07] that you know [32:08] come May [32:09] the pollsters have egg [32:10] on their faces [32:11] because actually [32:12] we didn't correctly [32:12] anticipate [32:13] what this new system [32:14] was going to do [32:15] in terms of [32:16] not just translating votes [32:17] to seat [32:17] but voter behaviour as well [32:19] never a dull moment [32:20] on the Welsh [32:21] campaign trail [32:22] Felicity [32:23] thank you very much [32:24] thank you Adam [32:25] it's been a pleasure [32:25] Alex good to catch up [32:27] with you [32:27] pleasure as ever [32:28] and Luke thanks for [32:29] coming into the studio [32:30] thanks for having me