Everything You Need To Know About The May UK Elections

[0:00] Hello, it's Adam in the Newscast Studio. [0:01] It's Joe Pike, also in the Newscast Studio. [0:04] It's James in Glasgow. [0:05] And joining us throughout this mini-series of ElectionCast, [0:08] it's Felicity Evans, host of Walescast and BBC Wales' Money Editor. [0:12] Hello, Felicity. [0:13] Hey, Adam, how are you? [0:14] Thank you for joining us. [0:15] Pleasure. [0:15] So we're here for the next few weeks. [0:17] We'll pop up every Friday, [0:19] although maybe we'll assemble with bonus episodes if necessary. [0:24] Absolutely. [0:24] Some big campaign trail revelations. [0:26] We will be decoding every twist and turn of the campaigns [0:30] in the various bits of the UK. [0:31] But first of all, we're going to go back to basics. [0:33] We're going to start filling in our ElectionCast binder. [0:37] And Joe, would you like to kick us off with just actually [0:39] what is happening in May? [0:42] Well, big elections for the Scottish Parliament, [0:46] the Welsh Senate and lots of English local council elections too. [0:50] 5,000 seats up for grabs in England across 136 districts. [0:56] Different councils, some mayoralties too. [0:59] Many different narratives that different parties are trying to spin. [1:03] But I think the most significant one is what this means for Keir Starmer's grip [1:07] on the Labour leadership and on the keys to number 10. [1:11] So much talk that if May is bad for him, we could see a leadership challenge. [1:17] And certainly in terms of the English council elections, [1:20] we are not talking about any Labour target seats. [1:23] This is a defensive election for the Labour Party. [1:25] What is it? [1:26] Well, how many seats they can hold on to? [1:29] How they can sort of stem the flow of seats they could lose to other parties? [1:33] Because we're mainly talking about seats that were last contested in 2022, [1:37] where Labour were doing far better in the polls than they are doing now. [1:42] In those elections, so in terms of the 5,000 seats we're talking about this time, [1:46] Labour hold about half of them. [1:48] The Conservatives hold about a quarter of them. [1:50] And back then, reform didn't really exist. [1:53] So we could see possibly a repeat of what we saw last year. [1:56] Which is reform doing particularly well. [1:58] James, just give us a reminder of how the Scottish Parliament is actually elected and the system, [2:04] because it's not the same as the Westminster Parliament. [2:07] No, and that's, as you rightly point out, Adam, a good place to start, [2:12] because it's really important to remember that they're different. [2:14] We've had the Scottish Parliament since 1999, [2:18] introduced after a referendum under the Labour government of Tony Blair. [2:22] And there are 129 members of the Scottish Parliament, [2:25] known as MSPs, of them 73 represent individual constituencies. [2:32] And straightforward there, you have one vote on the constituency ballot, [2:37] and the person who gets the most votes in the constituency wins. [2:41] And that is the same as Westminster. [2:42] But they are supplemented by 56 additional seats who are elected using a system of proportional representation. [2:50] That's sometimes referred to as list seats, because the way that people [2:55] put forward for an election there is that the parties, the individual political parties, [3:00] decide on a list of the candidates, they rank them, one, two, three, and so on. [3:05] And you get a second vote when you go into the polling booth. [3:09] And your second vote, you can vote for a party on the list. [3:13] And then what happens then is quite complicated. [3:16] But basically, it's, and you, Adam, are, I bet you can explain this, the de Haunt method, [3:23] because this is right up your... [3:25] You write up your street of, it's called the de Haunt method. [3:30] And what is that? [3:31] It is a mathematical formula that basically determines how many seats you get on the second vote. [3:36] And what it does is it weights them. [3:39] So the more you get in the constituencies, the less you get on the list, [3:43] and more the other parties might get on the list. [3:45] Obviously, it depends on, to a certain degree, how many people vote for you. [3:48] But it balances this out to try to ensure, the idea is to ensure more proportionality in the Parliament. [3:53] And what that leads to in the end, [3:55] and what it's supposed to lead to anyway, [3:57] is a Parliament that is not usually a Parliament that has a majority government. [4:02] A majority is not the bunger for success in Scottish elections. [4:06] It's only been achieved once in 2011 by the SNP. [4:10] And that was regarded as something of a freak result, [4:12] although the SNP are talking about the potential of doing it again this time. [4:15] But basically, the whole idea of Holyrood was to have a more consensual politics, [4:19] more collegiate politics, more discussions between parties. [4:23] I mean, a lot of people don't think it's achieved that. [4:25] But that was the idea. [4:27] And Felicity, before we go into the voting system in Wales, [4:31] please just give me the legit pronunciation of Senedd, [4:35] because I think I'm doing the right thing by turning those two Ds into a sort of a th and a bit of a d, [4:41] but then people do even then say that's not right, [4:43] even though I'm putting the effort in. [4:45] Okay, we're going to go for it together, Adam. [4:47] Ready? Senedd. [4:48] Senedd. [4:49] Yeah, that's right. [4:50] So it's, think of it like the TH basically is probably the best way to do it. [4:53] So the Senedd, [4:55] which is, [4:55] it's Welsh for Parliament. [4:56] It's the Welsh Parliament, basically. [4:58] So well done. [4:59] You get 100% for that pronunciation. [5:01] Thank you very much. [5:02] This is taking me back to my, [5:04] no, I didn't do A-level politics. [5:05] I didn't even do higher politics. [5:07] I didn't cover politics at school. [5:08] Anyway, this is an education. [5:09] So Felicity, yeah, the voting system there, [5:12] and also the fact that there's been some changes as well this time around. [5:15] There are massive changes this time around. [5:17] So there's a lot for voters in Wales to get their heads around, really. [5:20] And de Haunt is going to rear its ugly head again, [5:23] I'm afraid, because that is now the voting system, [5:24] that will be used in its entirety in this election in Wales. [5:30] I was talking to a Senedd official the other day about this actually, [5:33] and she joked that she was thinking of getting t-shirts printed saying, [5:36] I get de Haunt. [5:37] So if she does that, Adam, [5:38] I'll be sure to send one to you, [5:40] because I think you're probably the only person who can wear it legitimately. [5:42] But basically what's happening is that the Senedd is going from a system, [5:48] very similar to the one that James has described, [5:51] although the Senedd has always been a lot smaller than the Scottish Parliament. [5:55] But what we had was 60 MSs, [5:59] 40 of them were elected via the first-past-the-post system [6:02] that we're all familiar with from Westminster elections, [6:05] and then 20 of them were elected by this proportional representation system called de Haunt. [6:11] Now what is happening is that the Senedd is going to be a lot bigger. [6:15] So there will be 96 members of the Senedd, or MSs, [6:19] and they will be elected entirely using that de Haunt proportional representation system. [6:25] And the idea, of course, is that that better reflects the way that people vote around the country, [6:33] although obviously it's worth saying that no system is perfect. [6:37] So with this de Haunt system, really, [6:39] it does tend to favour parties that have a lot of momentum, the bigger parties. [6:43] And also you need to sort of be hitting around about the 12% support mark in each constituency to start winning seats, [6:50] roughly speaking. [6:51] It's a rule of thumb, but around about 12% to start winning those seats. [6:56] When voters go to the polls, instead of two votes, they will only have one vote. [7:01] They will exercise that vote for the party rather than for candidates who are standing, [7:06] although the candidates will be listed. [7:08] There will be six candidates in 16 constituencies, [7:11] and then de Haunt swings into action and we find out who wins. [7:15] What a legacy, Adam, of that Belgian lawyer and jurist who, what, 150 years ago, [7:21] Victor de Haunt invented this system and we're still talking about his work. [7:26] How random. [7:26] I mean, only every four or five years, though, on a really daily basis. [7:30] Maybe for you. [7:31] I think it's always at the front of your mind. [7:34] Oh, Victor. [7:35] And then talking about electoral systems and nuances, Joe, just then run us through, [7:40] let's just be really clear about the different things that are happening in England [7:43] and also maybe some of the things that are not happening. [7:46] Well, we have every single London borough, all 32, having elections. [7:53] We have a similar number of metropolitan boroughs [7:57] around the country. [7:57] Those are mainly in big cities in the Midlands and the north, seats up for grabs there. [8:02] We've got district council elections. [8:03] We've got unitary council elections. [8:05] We've got six county council elections that had been postponed. [8:09] So places like Norfolk and Suffolk and Essex. [8:12] So lots of different contests. [8:15] Some of them will be all out, i.e. every single council is re-elected. [8:19] Some will be in thirds. [8:22] And therefore, for a party like Reform, [8:25] even though they could do, [8:26] well, it's actually more difficult for them to gain control of a council [8:31] because only a third of seats might be up for grabs, [8:34] depending on which part of the country we're looking at. [8:37] And one of the basics I learnt as a political correspondent [8:40] when you're covering elections is you've always got to go back to the baseline. [8:44] In other words, what are you comparing this set of results to? [8:47] So, James, take us to the baseline, which was the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021. [8:53] Yes. So the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021, [8:56] the actual result, the SNP under Nicola Sturgeon, [8:59] just as the country was still dealing with Covid, [9:02] really, had a fantastic election result from their point of view. [9:05] Sixty four seats, one short of a majority. [9:08] The Conservatives were the second biggest party on 31. [9:12] Labour still struggling, still really in the political wilderness. [9:17] After having dominated Scottish politics for decades, [9:20] they'd struggled in the past like 15, 20 years to cope with the rise, [9:26] of the SNP and the rise of support for Scottish independence as well. [9:30] They were on 22. The Greens had eight and the Liberal Democrats had four seats. [9:35] Although, not to be pedantic, but strictly speaking, [9:39] we're on the night when we refer to the baseline. [9:42] The baseline will actually be a notional baseline [9:46] because there have been a few, not a huge amount, [9:48] but a few boundary changes for this election and they just changed that result very slightly. [9:52] So on the night, that's not the result we'll be referring back to in terms of gains and losses. [9:56] It'll be a slight change and basically Labour lose a seat, [9:59] the Greens gain a seat notionally because the boffins have decided [10:04] that that's probably what would have happened [10:05] had these boundaries been in place at the last election. [10:07] Just so we're really comparing like with like, [10:09] even though the previous like didn't actually exist. [10:13] And Felicity, go back in your time machine to 2021 in Wales. [10:16] Well, we have no baseline, Adam, now anymore, [10:19] because, of course, the system is so radically different this time around. [10:23] We can't compare the performance [10:26] after the results come in this time to what happened in 2021, [10:28] because then we had 60 seats. [10:30] Now we're going to have 96 seats. [10:31] Then we had a completely different voting system and so on and so forth. [10:35] But just to give you a broad brush of what we're looking out for, [10:38] really, Labour had a good election last time around, the Conservatives too. [10:43] Both of those parties are now very much on the ropes, [10:47] particularly the Labour dominance in Wales, [10:51] really, that's gone on for a century, [10:54] if you think about it. [10:55] For a hundred years, [10:55] Labour has always been the biggest party after a general election [11:02] or a Senate election in Wales. [11:05] And it looks as if this time that might not be the case. [11:10] So, you know, Joe was talking earlier about what's riding on this for Keir Starmer. [11:15] Keir Starmer could potentially be the Labour prime minister [11:19] who loses dominance in Wales if the polling trends are to be believed. [11:24] And of course, they are not, [11:25] they're not predictions, these trends. [11:27] And, you know, the only vote that counts is the one on the day and all of that. [11:29] But consistently, the polling trends have suggested that Welsh Labour is really struggling to catch up [11:36] with Plaid Cymru, the Independence Party in Wales, [11:40] and Reform, who the polling suggests are duking it out, [11:43] really, to be largest party. [11:45] And last time around, Reform obviously didn't have any seats at all in the Welsh Parliament. [11:50] So it really is all change here. [11:52] And we may as well get into the politics now. [11:55] Now that we've done the basics and kind of like the science bit of the elections. [11:58] But I suppose it's a similar story for Labour in Scotland, James, isn't it? [12:02] Yeah. And I think what is really striking here, [12:05] Adam, is if you take a step back, [12:07] what is going on? There is discontent, distrust, frustration, [12:12] even anger with mainstream established parties across Western democracies. [12:17] And we've talked about this, you and I, on Newscast many, many, many times. [12:22] What has happened as a result of that? Voters have increasingly, [12:25] turned away from the mainstream to radical alternatives, [12:30] populist alternatives, nationalist alternatives. [12:34] And you have a slightly complicating factor now in Scotland, [12:37] in the fact that the SNP have been in power for 19 years. [12:40] The iPhone wasn't on sale when the SNP came to power. [12:44] So a certain degree, the SNP are their own establishment now, [12:48] and they form a new Scottish establishment. [12:50] So that slightly complicates the picture. [12:52] But the general picture stands that there's been [12:55] a rotation of politics across the West and across the United Kingdom. [12:59] We now have the situation where the largest party electorally [13:03] in Northern Ireland is an Irish nationalist party, Sinn Féin. [13:06] We have the potential, as Felicity was just saying, [13:09] for Plaid Cymru to be the largest party, [13:12] a Welsh nationalist party in government in Cardiff. [13:15] A nationalist party in the SNP still on track on the polls to win this election. [13:19] I'm not prejudging this, that voters can do what they like, [13:21] and this may be wrong, but as things stand. [13:24] And then what some people [13:25] identify as effectively an English or British nationalist party, [13:29] or certainly a party rooted in those traditions, [13:31] Reform UK potentially sweeping the border, [13:34] doing very well in England. [13:35] So an extraordinary fragmentation and a real challenge to the centre [13:40] and to the mainstream parties, [13:42] potentially depending on what the voters themselves [13:45] and newscasters among them decide to do. [13:47] And Joe, it's interesting, all year Chris Mason has been saying, [13:51] oh, lots of the talk in Labour is about London. [13:54] And not just because they're metropolitan elites [13:56] or just the fact there's a lot of Labour MPs in London, [13:59] but the fact that London Labour is battling on all fronts, [14:03] on all kind of bits of the political compass. [14:05] Absolutely. [14:06] So in central London, I think the Green Party are certainly a threat. [14:11] If you think of places like Hackney and Camden and Islington [14:15] and maybe Southwark and Lewisham too, [14:17] you've got the Conservatives who might want to win back some of their big councils, [14:22] places like Westminster or Wandsworth, [14:24] now in Westminster parliamentary terms, [14:29] London is pretty red with a few Conservatives around the edges [14:34] and Jeremy Corbyn is independent in the middle. [14:35] But in the bottom left corner, [14:38] so in the southwest of the city, [14:41] the Lib Dems in some quite affluent seats have picked up Westminster seats [14:46] and want to lock in a lot of those gains. [14:48] If you think about Wimbledon, about Richmond, Twickenham, [14:54] those sorts of things, [14:54] those sorts of places and reform on the edges of the city as well, [15:00] outer London and I think they'll be looking at Essex as well. [15:03] So London could be really difficult and it's very difficult for a party to try [15:08] and shape their messages in terms of their leaflets [15:12] or their door-knocking pitches when you have so many different threats. [15:17] And as James said, this is about how our politics has fractured. [15:21] And Felicity, I mean there are loads of polls about how people are thinking [15:24] about voting in terms of their parties [15:26] and then people extrapolate that on to try and generate a result. [15:29] But in terms of what people are actually thinking about in terms of issues, [15:33] have we managed to like peer into the minds of the Welsh people? [15:36] Yeah, we've been out and about talking to people [15:39] and of course the various pollsters also do these issue tracker questions. [15:43] As you know, Adam, it's worth saying though, [15:44] just as a sidebar before we get into that, [15:46] that I do think, especially with this Welsh Senedd election, [15:51] that the seat projections really are a little bit sketchy. [15:54] To be honest, because the possible permutations [15:57] for the percentages that come out are really vast. [16:00] I was talking to one polling expert who was saying [16:02] there are a thousand different possible permutations of seats [16:06] from one particular poll that we were talking about. [16:08] So when people start trying to predict numbers of seats, [16:11] I think that's when we really get into territory that we should say, [16:14] okay, well, you know, let's not spend too much time thinking about that. [16:17] In terms of the big issues, really, as I suspect is happening everywhere, [16:22] cost of living is... [16:24] a really big issue for voters and something that they're talking about a lot. [16:28] And obviously, the war in Iran has had a major impact there. [16:32] But in Wales, to be honest, the persistence of that as an issue for people [16:36] is something that's been a real theme pretty much since the invasion of Ukraine, [16:41] but starting to happen before that, obviously, as we came out of the pandemic [16:45] and there were all those pressures on supply chains starting to gear up again. [16:48] And since then, really, people have taken hit after hit after hit [16:51] to their household budgets. [16:55] Salaries tend to be lower than the UK average, [16:58] so people are earning less anyway. [17:01] And things like the freeze on income tax thresholds, for example, [17:06] which has the effect of pulling more people into paying tax over time [17:09] or pulling people into higher tax brackets over time, [17:12] that is having a disproportionate impact in Wales [17:15] because salaries are lower in the first place. [17:18] So there's a richer harvest of people, if you like, [17:20] that you can start pulling into the tax regime. [17:23] So there's all that sort of stuff happening. [17:25] A really big issue here in Wales is the NHS. [17:28] We've had real concerns around NHS performance, [17:32] around waiting times for treatment, [17:33] and particularly the health board in North Wales, [17:36] which has had persistent problems for many years. [17:39] We'll come back to the issues and the polling on the issues in a second. [17:41] But James, Felicity brings up the issue of income tax thresholds. [17:46] In Scotland, because of devolution, [17:47] there are loads of different income tax rates, aren't there? [17:51] Yeah, and this does actually relate right into those issues. [17:55] And to what pollsters or people are telling pollsters [17:58] that they think are important at these elections, [18:00] because as you say, public services feature highly in that. [18:03] Immigration has crept up the list of concerns as well. [18:05] But this is quite striking at this election, Adam. [18:09] In 2026, this is the greatest extent to which a Holyrood election [18:13] has not just been a public services election, [18:15] but a tax and welfare election, [18:17] because as you rightly say, in the past five years, [18:20] Scotland has diverged significantly from other parts of the UK. [18:25] There is a more complicated system. [18:27] There are more tax bans in Scotland than there are in other parts of the UK, [18:31] and they are for middle and high earners under the SNP at higher levels. [18:36] At the same time, there are more generous welfare payments [18:40] in some regards in Scotland, [18:41] both in terms of the way that disability allowance, [18:45] which is now controlled by Holyrood, [18:47] has been treated in terms of the generosity and the conditions [18:51] and the likelihood of people being approved for that allowance. [18:55] It seems that it's easier to get in Scotland. [18:59] And secondly, with an introduction of benefits, [19:01] including a payment called the Scottish Child Payment, [19:05] which is designed to reduce poverty. [19:07] And indeed, some experts, including the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, [19:10] says that it's been successful in bringing down levels of poverty. [19:13] So what you have now are two strikingly different visions, [19:17] really, for Scotland, to varying degrees for the SNP, [19:21] the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Scottish Greens. [19:25] Their priority really is cutting poverty [19:28] with a relatively speaking more generous welfare state [19:31] and relatively speaking higher levels of taxation on middle and high earners. [19:34] And the parties differ on what those levels precisely should be [19:37] or exactly how that should be handled. [19:39] But that's their broad ideological position. [19:41] And then on the other side, [19:42] you've got the Conservatives and Reform UK, [19:44] who are running in Scotland and are doing pretty well in the polls, [19:47] neck and neck with Labour at the moment, [19:49] arguing for a different approach, [19:51] saying the focus should be on growing the economy [19:54] and that they would improve, [19:55] improve lives by cutting taxes, [19:57] cutting welfare spending and going for growth. [20:00] Now, obviously, you can challenge both of those positions, [20:03] both in terms of politicians always say they'll go for growth [20:06] and sometimes it's harder than they think. [20:08] And is the welfare bill sustainable? [20:10] Well, lots of independent experts say on the trajectory it's currently on, [20:13] it's not, but that's the broad ideological divide [20:16] along those issues in Scotland at these elections. [20:19] And Joe, this is a bit of a thought experiment now, [20:21] so I'm putting you on the spot, but OK, local authorities in England, [20:25] have got the power to increase council tax up to a certain level, [20:29] otherwise they have to have a referendum on it. [20:31] But actually, Rachel Reeves was suggesting in her Mays lecture [20:34] the other day there that she wants to go further [20:36] and maybe we'll have a situation where there's more of a direct link [20:39] between local authorities and income tax. [20:43] So not necessarily a Scottish style system [20:45] where Leeds can have a different income tax rate, [20:48] but she is toying with this idea of linking places and tax a bit more. [20:53] And certainly, there are a lot of regional [20:54] mayors, metro mayors, Adam, who want more money raising powers, [20:59] want tax raising powers. [21:01] So that is a sort of constant debate and a constant tension. [21:04] In terms of issues with the English local elections though, [21:07] I think it slightly depends where you are. [21:09] Certainly in Birmingham, I'm sure the bin strikes [21:11] we've heard so much about over the last year may be a big issue for Labour. [21:15] Certainly immigration reform has managed to localise in its campaigning, [21:20] talking about asylum accommodation, asylum hotels, [21:24] in different patches. [21:26] For the Greens, I think they are pitching themselves [21:28] as a more radical left-wing party than Labour. [21:32] Certainly what Zach Polanski has said in the past week [21:34] about being a very anti-war party, I think feeds into that, [21:38] even though that's a sort of international issue [21:39] that has nothing to do with local councils. [21:42] The Lid Dems from my conversations are pitching themselves, [21:45] as they have for decades, as sort of local community champions who are competent. [21:52] And I think the Conservatives, [21:54] and Labour are left actually pitching themselves [21:56] as professionals who have, they argue, run councils well. [22:02] And will there be a slight national change [22:06] with what's happened in the past few weeks on Iran? [22:09] Certainly people within Number 10 think that Keir Starmer has done well on that [22:14] and he made the right calls where they'd argue maybe other party leaders didn't. [22:18] Therefore, could that perhaps feed into this, [22:21] even though when we're talking about councils we are talking about bin [22:23] and collections and potholes? [22:25] What I've found interesting about this current set of elections [22:29] and at this stage in the campaign trail is that we always have rules [22:33] and advice and guidance about how we should cover the elections [22:36] so that we're fair to all the political parties in our coverage on the news. [22:40] In the past, it felt like you could sort of do national politics [22:46] and you just covered national politics as we would always do it. [22:49] And then there was sort of local and Scottish and Welsh election politics, [22:53] and that would be covered in a [22:54] more kind of election-y way. [22:56] But it feels to me that the fragmentation of the political system [22:59] that James was talking about earlier on, [23:01] plus the fact that all issues now seem to be connected in lots of different interconnected ways, [23:07] it does feel that all our politics over the next six weeks is a combination of national politics, [23:14] international politics and election politics, [23:16] whether it's local authorities, [23:18] whether it's Wales, whether it's Scotland. [23:20] What do you think of my theory, Joe? [23:21] That is a very wise point. [23:22] I think you put that well. [23:23] And I think if you, [23:24] if you look at how the Labour Party arguably framing this at a UK level, [23:32] you know, Keir Starmer spent three days, [23:33] Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday of this week, [23:36] talking about Iran, doing stuff around Iran. [23:39] He had on Monday the business leaders meeting, Tuesday Cobra, [23:43] Wednesday he had that news conference. [23:44] Absolutely no policy really coming out of that, Adam. [23:47] Why are Labour wanting to focus on that? [23:51] Because they think that international affairs is something that is strong for them. [23:54] And so they want to bring that to the table. [23:55] And so they're going to go and talk about it, [23:57] and I think that we've dominated some newspapers and news programmes. [24:02] So they may be happy with that, [24:04] even though it's nothing to do with local council elections. [24:07] Yeah, Felicity, I mean, I'm going to be honest here. [24:09] I think, maybe when the Welsh elections were on 15 years ago, [24:15] and if the Prime Minister had done a press conference in Downing Street about a war in the Middle East, [24:18] I'm not sure we necessarily would have gone to Plaid Cymru for their views on what the Prime Minister had said. [24:24] we did that's an example of how our politics has just it's the the bandwidth has expanded i think [24:30] 100 totally agree with you and you can't really to be honest we've sort of struggled with this [24:36] i don't know if you have in in scotland james it's a little bit different for you i know because the [24:40] scottish government tends to have broader powers over some of these things than than the welsh [24:43] government does here in wales but over the 27 odd years of devolution we've we've struggled [24:48] sometimes to decide you know how do we demarcate what is a devolved issue and what is not a [24:55] devolved issue so on cost of living for example which is obviously such a big issue for voters [24:59] these days so many of the levers that could potentially help or hinder that don't sit with [25:04] the welsh government they sit with the treasury and the uk government but voters uh and why should [25:11] they don't have those demarcations in mind if if they feel they are not being well served by a [25:18] labour government [25:19] in westminster they may well take it out on the labour government that's been in power here in [25:25] wales and similarly if they feel that labour having been in power here for 27 years uninterrupted [25:32] it means it's time for change then they will execute that decision if that is indeed [25:37] what they decide to do and i think all of the parties have been trying in wales to come up [25:43] with policies on cost of living that they can deliver that's within their power to deliver [25:49] not only to the government they but to us as business for the people of wales they think [25:54] us as glassy chFinat-laden police if you like and some of the other parties like plight camry for [26:00] example are calling for more power so for example James was talking earlier about how the Scottish [26:04] government can vary tax bans as well as tax rates well that's not the case in wales the government [26:09] can only vary tax rates but plague somethig the tax rates that exist at the tax bans that exists [26:14] forgive me are not suitable in wales where salaries are lower so the welsh government should have that [26:18] which is one of the biggest bills, of course, that households face. [26:22] But we're not really seeing many of them wanting to grasp that nettle. [26:27] We do have a revaluation scheduled in legislation for 2028, [26:31] but obviously the next Welsh government could decide to dodge that if they wanted to. [26:36] And really, the Greens are saying they'd like to see a land valuation tax, [26:39] which they say would be fairer. [26:41] But other parties, Labour, for example, saying they want a fairer tax, [26:44] Reform the Conservatives talking about capping it. [26:48] And Plaid Cymru, again, talking about making it fairer. [26:52] But fairer is in the eye of the beholder, [26:54] and that's a word that's doing a lot of heavy lifting right now in this election. [26:58] Felicity, to answer your question about whether we have that here, we absolutely do. [27:02] And when the Parliament began, [27:05] partly because we thought we sort of had a duty to educate people, [27:08] and I mean right back in 1999, [27:10] we spent a lot of time trying to say, [27:13] no, Holyrood is for this, Westminster is for that. [27:17] And I think we... [27:18] We at the BBC realised over time that while we were trying to do a decent thing, [27:24] to try to just sort of explain how politics now worked, the new politics, [27:28] that voters didn't really buy that. [27:31] And that when it came to... I'll give you a couple of examples. [27:33] So immigration's an example. [27:35] You know, border control's obviously reserved to Westminster, [27:37] but the potential impact of immigration in terms of housing, education, [27:42] health, doctors, public services, or the perceived impact of it anyway, [27:45] let's not get into the actual debate, but it's an example, [27:49] is one area where there's obvious crossover. [27:52] The North Sea is another one, oil and gas. [27:55] You know, a lot of energy policy reserved to Westminster, [27:58] but in terms of the transition from oil and gas to renewables, [28:01] and planning, and jobs, and so on, a big impact for Holyrood as well. [28:05] So there's just a couple of examples where you just... [28:08] I don't think... You know, you're right. [28:09] You just can't say there's this and there's that. [28:12] And another interesting thing for us, [28:15] and again, I don't know whether this is something that's happening in Scotland, [28:17] but we have... [28:18] We have some really big UK political figures [28:21] who are not standing in this Senate election, [28:24] but who are actually spending quite a lot of time here in Wales [28:27] to try to give their parties a boost, even though they're not standing. [28:31] So Nigel Farage for reform, for example. [28:34] The Welsh leader is Dan Thomas, [28:36] a chap who used to run Barnett Council in London, actually, [28:38] but he's a Welshman, he moved back to Wales a few years ago. [28:41] But it's Nigel Farage who's coming for a lot of the big set-piece events [28:46] and sort of kicking them off before he... [28:48] hands over to Dan Thomas. [28:50] And similarly, Zach Polanski for the Green Party. [28:53] The Greens are very hopeful that they will win seats in this Senate election [28:58] and they're feeling very buoyant, [29:00] given some of the polling numbers that they're getting. [29:03] But again, Anthony Slaughter, who leads the Greens here in Wales, [29:06] not a household name. [29:07] Zach Polanski very much is. [29:09] And so Zach Polanski is coming [29:11] and doing a lot of that heavy lifting for the Greens. [29:15] What's not happening, of course, is Keir Starmer coming. [29:18] He's coming for Welsh Labour, because I think, you know, [29:20] there is a feeling that given his low popularity levels, [29:23] he's a bit of a drag for Eluned Morgan, [29:25] the Welsh First Minister and Labour leader. [29:28] So that's not happening. [29:29] But it's interesting how Reform and the Greens [29:31] are deploying those UK national figures, [29:34] even though they are not candidates in this election. [29:37] Yeah, it's a good reminder that politics and personalities [29:41] and just people's opinions don't necessarily conform [29:43] to the demarcations in the textbooks. [29:47] Not that that's an excuse to then talk about the de Haunt method even more. [29:51] Let's talk about, though, about issues of national identity, [29:56] because if you've got, James, the SNP, [29:59] a nationalist party, rebounding in the polls, [30:02] and Felicity, you've got Plaid Cymru, [30:04] a nationalist party jointly leading the polls. [30:07] I'm just wondering, in Wales, for example, [30:09] I mean, we'd call these issues constitutional issues in Scotland, [30:12] how often is just the nature of what Wales is [30:15] and the powers that the Welsh... [30:17] Welsh Government has, does that come up on the campaign trail? [30:22] To be honest, I think you struggle to knock on the door [30:24] and have someone open the door and say, [30:26] I demand that powers over the Crown's estate are devolved to Wales, [30:30] although that is something that certainly is talked about a lot [30:33] by Plaid Cymru, for example, and indeed Welsh Labour. [30:37] And just to interrupt, that's the lands around the coast [30:40] that is owned by the Crown on behalf of the nation, [30:43] and there's all sorts of things going on about who gets the money [30:45] from leasing out the seabed for a wind farm. [30:48] That's why that's important. [30:49] Yes, absolutely, Adam, yes. [30:50] That is something, I think, that isn't necessarily impinging [30:52] on people's consciousness in terms of how they're going to vote. [30:55] They are worried about the issues like the cost of living, [30:58] about how they're affording the next bill, [31:00] about what sort of standard of education their kids are getting in school [31:04] and that sort of thing. [31:05] But certainly the political parties do have this push and pull about it, [31:10] if you like. [31:11] So James was talking earlier about how the blocs are dividing up, [31:14] so the parties of the left, for example, Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru, [31:18] the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, in Wales anyway, the main parties, [31:23] and then we have Reform and the Welsh Conservatives on the other side. [31:26] And Reform and the Welsh Conservatives accuse Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour [31:30] of being obsessed with constitutional issues [31:32] that aren't important to ordinary voters. [31:35] And, of course, those parties push back and say, [31:38] oh, but hang on a minute, these things determine how much money we have [31:41] and how much power we have to make a difference [31:43] to the lives of people in Wales. [31:44] So that argument definitely happens. [31:46] I think the question over how much it impinges [31:50] on how the ordinary voter decides to vote [31:53] is very much an open question, though. [31:56] But, interestingly, what we do find from some of the polling, [31:59] you know, the Wales election study, [32:01] when it's gone back to ask people how they voted [32:03] and how they identify themselves [32:06] and sort of relate that to how they vote, [32:09] whether someone identifies as British or Welsh-British [32:13] versus whether they identify primarily as Welsh, [32:17] does seem to have an impact, or at least it has in previous elections, [32:21] on how they've voted across the political spectrum. [32:24] So identity certainly plays into it, [32:27] but some of these constitutional issues, I think, [32:29] are not things that voters are going to put right at the top of their list. [32:34] Certainly, here in Scotland, [32:36] we have a slightly different version of the same argument. [32:39] And you, Adam, and you, Jo, [32:41] both remember the 2014 referendum on independence [32:44] when Scotland voted by 55% to 45% [32:48] to vote by 55% to 45%. [32:48] to stay in the United Kingdom. [32:50] What's happened since then, interestingly, [32:52] is that support for independence, which has gone up a bit, [32:55] the most recent polling puts it just above 50%, [32:58] an average of the most recent polls, [33:00] and support for the Scottish National Party, [33:02] which many people for a long time had regarded as the, [33:05] if it were ever to be delivered, [33:06] the primary vehicle that would deliver independence. [33:08] That makes it sound like it's like a pint of milk or a newspaper, [33:11] but you get the idea. [33:12] Support for those two have diverged. [33:15] So although the SNP are potentially [33:18] on track to do well in this election, [33:20] they've not had a good couple of years. [33:23] In the general election, Labour went from one seat to 39. [33:26] The SNP fell from 48 to nine seats. [33:30] And then they lost a by-election in the Scottish Parliament as well. [33:34] So what John Swinney is doing, the leader of the SNP, [33:37] the First Minister, [33:38] is talking about independence in this election a lot [33:41] because he is trying to narrow that gap. [33:44] He's thinking, look, if we're on, say, 35% the SNP and independence, [33:48] is on 50%, John Swinney's thinking, [33:50] there's some votes that I could usefully get back. [33:53] So he is actually talking about it a lot. [33:55] Of course, there's no obvious mechanism [33:57] by which independence might happen [33:59] after the Supreme Court ruled during this last Holyrood Parliament [34:03] that Holyrood could not unilaterally hold a referendum on independence [34:07] and all the major UK parties are saying [34:09] that they would not agree to one in any circumstances, really. [34:13] So it's a sort of, it's a strange debate about independence here. [34:18] It bubbles up and it's there always under the surface [34:20] and there's a significant number of people who say they want it [34:23] and a significant number of people who don't. [34:25] But there's no one ever quite sure about how it might happen, if at all. [34:28] Felicity, you're very politely raising your hand. [34:30] In the old Brexit cast days, me, Chris, Laura and Katja [34:32] would just all talk over each other. [34:34] So feel free to do that if you'd like. [34:35] Thank you. [34:36] Because I can't see you, so I'm not sure whether you spotted it. [34:41] That's why I was doing that. [34:42] But just on that independence point, [34:44] this is really interesting in Wales [34:45] and it's fascinating to hear what James is saying about it. [34:48] The SNP pushing the independence point [34:49] because it's kind of the converse here at the moment. [34:52] So we have, of the six main parties standing in Wales, [34:56] two of them are pro-independence. [34:57] So Plaid Cymru, obviously, and the Green Party. [35:01] Neither of them are really pushing independence [35:04] as an issue in this election. [35:07] The parties that are raising independence as an issue [35:10] are the parties really who are trying to slag off those two parties. [35:15] So, you know, the Reform, the Welsh Conservatives, [35:18] the Liberal Democrats and Welsh Labour [35:21] are all trying to raise the issue of independence [35:24] in the consciousness of voters [35:26] and saying these two parties will take Wales down an independent route. [35:30] You don't want that to happen. [35:32] The Greens and Plaid Cymru are not really talking about it at all, [35:36] though they have said, both of them, [35:38] that they don't really see independence as an issue [35:41] to tackle in this next Senedd term. [35:44] Though Plaid Cymru has said that they will perhaps set up [35:47] a review to have a look at the pathway ahead on the issue, [35:52] but they've both ruled it out as being something [35:54] that they will try to bring on in this Senedd term. [35:57] So it's quite interesting the different tactics [36:00] that the independence parties are taking in Wales [36:02] and in Scotland, by the sounds of it. [36:04] There is a bit of the other parties find it quite useful [36:09] to say, you know, independence, if you vote for SNP, [36:13] in their view, it will be destabilising [36:16] and just focusing on the Constitution, [36:18] and not fixing all the problems that the country has. [36:23] And they accuse the SNP of focusing too much [36:26] on independence over the past 19 years [36:28] and not doing a good enough job in government with public services. [36:31] And Anas Sarwar doesn't want to talk about that Constitution. [36:35] He wants to talk about public services. [36:37] He doesn't want to talk about the Prime Minister either, [36:39] but that's a whole other question, Adam. [36:41] Yes, and we saw him distancing himself from Keir Starmer [36:43] quite dramatically a couple of weeks ago. [36:45] Joe, I'll give you a closing thought, [36:48] and you can make it a closing thought from an English perspective [36:50] or a UK-wide perspective, or maybe both. [36:53] I suppose if we step back, Adam, these are massive, complicated [36:56] and could be hugely consequential elections. [36:59] We're not just speaking about who has control [37:02] of the levers of Scotland and Wales, [37:04] and every council in London [37:06] and 5,000 different councillor jobs across England. [37:10] We are also potentially talking about the future of the Prime Minister, [37:14] whether it's fair or not. [37:15] A lot of people will perhaps go into the vote, [37:18] and think about national issues in the Prime Minister, [37:21] as well as their bin collections and potholes. [37:25] It is still early days in the election campaign, [37:28] but in terms of what a lot of political journalists in Westminster [37:30] will be thinking about, it is what will the narrative [37:33] and the headlines be on the morning of Friday the 8th, [37:38] and as that day and Saturday, with some counting on Saturday, progresses? [37:42] How will Labour MPs in particular be feeling that weekend? [37:47] Has Keir Starmer... [37:48] ...done enough with his leadership on Iran to hold on to the job? [37:51] Is now a good time to challenge him? [37:54] Maybe not, if there's so much global and economic instability. [37:59] But I know political journalists have cleared those days in their diaries, [38:02] and also there are some political aides who work for potential leadership contenders [38:07] who are clearing those parts of their diaries too. [38:11] Getting the phone lines fitted, [38:12] which is a very 1990s reference to potential leadership challenges. [38:16] Exactly. [38:17] So, I mean, [38:18] maybe it will not happen, [38:19] but the potential for these elections being hugely consequential [38:23] for the leadership of the country, [38:24] you know, that's certainly possible. [38:26] At the start of these campaigns, [38:27] I always find myself becoming a little bit nostalgic. [38:30] And it's back to that point we were saying earlier on about the baseline of 2021. [38:34] And it's just a reminder of how much churn and change there is. [38:37] Because in 2021, Boris Johnson was Prime Minister, [38:39] was riding high because of the COVID vaccine rollout. [38:44] Keir Starmer went on to win a massive landslide. [38:48] Nicola Sturgeon was Queen of all. [38:49] She surveyed in a sort of rhetorical sense. [38:52] She's leaving politics with a very different reputation now. [38:56] There'd be no invasion by Russia of the east of Ukraine on a big scale. [39:03] A lot has changed in five years, [39:04] but also a lot has changed in 18 months too. [39:07] That's the crazy thing. [39:08] Are we just having a much shorter electoral cycle? [39:12] Because less than two years ago when Keir Starmer took over, [39:16] you wouldn't necessarily have predicted [39:17] us to be even considering that his leadership could be under threat [39:21] or that we could be seeing really difficult elections for him in Scotland and Wales. [39:25] Although I always find him only nostalgic at the start of the campaigns [39:28] because then there's a whole load of new facts that take over your brain [39:30] and those old facts about old timers disappears. [39:33] Right, Joe, thank you very much. [39:34] Thanks, Adam. [39:35] James, thanks to you. [39:36] Thanks, Adam. Great to see you. [39:38] And Felicity, thanks for joining us. [39:39] It's been a pleasure. Thank you. [39:40] And the plan is we will record new episodes of electioncast, love saying that word, every Thursday, [39:47] which will land in your newscast feeds on a Friday. [39:50] But we will all be standing by to do extra electioncasts as and when might be necessary. [39:55] And there'll be some classic newscasts heading your way after the Easter holidays. [39:59] And in the meantime, you'll be getting a mini series that Chris Mason and I have done delving [40:04] into the history and the issues at the Home Office. [40:08] That's the Home Office, the government department, not where Chris does work when he's at home. [40:12] So that's what will be coming your way in the newscast feed very soon. [40:15] Bye bye.