Everything it takes to blockade Hormuz: Military experts explain

[0:00] Joining me right now, CNN, senior military analyst, retired Admiral James Stavridis. [0:04] Thank you so much for being here, focusing in on this blockade that is set to set in, [0:08] according to U.S. Central Command, at 10 a.m. Eastern. [0:11] If this happens, what is a blockade going to look like in reality, Admiral? [0:17] And practically, what is going to be required of the U.S. Navy to pull it off? [0:23] Well, let's start with a little bit of confusion over what the intent is here. [0:29] What we heard from President Trump initially was a full and complete blockade, [0:34] a shutdown, if you will, of the Strait of Hormuz. [0:38] What has now developed and what we're hearing from Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander, [0:44] is more nuanced than I think the right answer, which is to blockade the Iranian ports. [0:51] That's an important distinction. [0:53] So let's assume it's the latter. [0:56] How do you do that? [0:57] You need one or two aircraft carriers in the region to put up air cover. [1:01] You need a dozen surface combatants, Kate, so cruisers, frigates, destroyers, [1:07] to actually station themselves off the Iranian ports. [1:12] You need a couple of dozen small, fast patrol craft. [1:16] The Emirates and the Saudis have these kind of craft, corvettes, patrol boats. [1:24] And then you're going to need land-based air to maintain air superiority. [1:29] So this will be a huge and resource-intensive effort. [1:33] And I'll close with this. [1:35] The good news is, having now pounded the Iranians militarily, this goes after their economy. [1:44] But it does it in a way that doesn't blow up the entire oil infrastructure. [1:49] So let's see how the blockade unfolds. [1:53] But it's going to be resource-intensive, and it could be very risky. [1:57] I want to play something that Democratic Senator Mark Warner said about this and the question on the connection between imposing a blockade [2:07] and the broader objective of the United States to get the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened. [2:15] Let me play this. [2:15] But I don't understand how blockading the Strait is going to somehow push the Iranians into opening it. [2:25] I don't get the connection there. [2:27] You're going to see these energy prices continue at record levels, not for weeks, but months and years. [2:33] And how blockading the Strait gets it open suddenly, I don't get that logic. [2:40] What do you think of that? [2:43] I think that is a very common response across the country, is just head-scratching. [2:49] How does this work? [2:51] And this gets back, Kate, to where we started the conversation. [2:54] It's the distinction between simply shutting down the Strait completely, which is what I think Senator Warner is responding to, [3:02] and the more nuanced closure of the Iranian ports. [3:06] Because these are two different tasks. [3:09] Blockading Iran will, in fact, hurt their economy deeply. [3:14] They depend on oil coming out of those ports. [3:16] The second task is to open the Strait for everybody else. [3:21] That's where I think this has landed, in the cold light of a Monday morning. [3:25] So watch for U.S. Navy and hopefully European minesweepers to go into that Strait next. [3:34] Clear it for everybody else while we blockade the Iranian ports. [3:38] I think that is what the administration is intending here. [3:41] Does it effectively do what they are intending, which would be cripple the Iranian economy? [3:52] Do you think a blockade like this can completely stop Iranians from getting their oil out? [3:58] Or are there cracks in the system? [4:04] Of course there will be cracks in the system. [4:07] Think back to our own history, Kate. [4:09] American Civil War. [4:10] The North blockaded the South. [4:13] Thousands of miles of coastline took hundreds and hundreds of U.S. Navy ships. [4:19] Plan Anaconda, named for the snake, that constricts its opponent. [4:24] What the administration aims to do is to accomplish that. [4:27] But it could take time. [4:29] It took three years plus in the American Civil War [4:32] to really bring that Confederate economy to its knees. [4:36] That's the hope here. [4:37] And last thought, we should recognize Iran will continue to have options here. [4:43] They can put more mines in the Strait. [4:45] They can use terrorism globally. [4:47] They can use cyber attacks, perhaps aided by the Russians. [4:51] They still have cards to play. [4:53] And the one that worries me the most, [4:55] they could go after the Gulf Arab state's oil infrastructure, [5:00] using short-range ballistic missiles and terror. [5:03] So this staring contest between Tehran and Washington [5:09] is about to come to a culmination. [5:13] We'll see who blinks. [5:15] Joining me now is Colonel Cedric Layton to help us understand this morning's development. [5:19] So, Colonel, can you explain to our viewers how a blockade like this would actually work? [5:25] And what are the ramifications of that move? [5:29] Yeah, Manu, good morning to you. [5:31] One of the things that you have to look out for is, of course, [5:33] the geography of the place that we're looking at here, [5:36] and that's the Strait of Hormuz in this case. [5:38] So, theoretically, from a geographical standpoint, [5:41] this is going to be easier to do than, let's say, Venezuela or Cuba. [5:44] But there's a lot of traffic that is supposed to go through the Strait of Hormuz, [5:49] you know, on average 135 ships a day before the war. [5:54] So there's a lot that has to be controlled here. [5:57] And so what the blockade would probably look like [5:59] is that the U.S. forces would principally be focused in the southern approaches, [6:04] basically from the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea [6:07] into the Strait of Hormuz, that 21-mile-wide gap that we're seeing right there. [6:12] And the other part of it, the northern part, [6:16] may very well be controlled by the Emirati and Saudi and other Gulf Arab states. [6:25] So what they would have to do is they'd have to work together. [6:28] Now, the president of the United States has not said anything about the Saudis [6:32] or the Emiratis or the Bahrainis or anybody else getting involved in this. [6:36] So that would make it easier if they did. [6:39] But let's assume for a second that the U.S. was the sole country to do this. [6:44] You would have to have basically a fleet of destroyers out there, [6:48] coupled with at least one, preferably two aircraft carriers [6:52] that could maintain maritime surveillance over the area. [6:56] And then what they're trying to do is they're trying to prevent any ships [7:00] that paid Iranian tolls from getting through the Strait of Hormuz. [7:05] So if that's the case, that could set us up for a conflict [7:09] not only between Iran and the United States, which is already happening, [7:13] but also potentially with other countries such as China, [7:16] which have paid tolls that allow their ships to go through. [7:21] So it's an area where we have to be very careful what happens next. [7:26] But that's basically what this blockade would look like. [7:29] On the surface, it's simple. [7:31] In fact, it's going to be really complicated. [7:32] Yeah, and I wonder, could this backfire in any way, Colonel? [7:36] Because the U.S., of course, needs the Strait of Hormuz open as well. [7:41] I mean, couldn't this blockade backfire on the U.S. in any way? [7:45] It could. [7:46] For example, the Iranians could decide to put more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, [7:52] and that would complicate any mine-clearing operations, [7:54] which, according to President Trump, have already begun. [7:57] So you've got, you know, mine-clearing operations that could be complicated by extra mines. [8:03] There could be attacks by small vessels, such as the Dows, [8:08] which is basically the native ships in the Persian Gulf area, [8:12] and also the other small boats and fast boats that the Iranians still have. [8:16] So in spite of their navy being basically decimated, you would have the capability, [8:23] the Iranians would have the capability of putting a stop to traffic using smaller craft [8:27] and asymmetric attacks such as mines and other efforts, such as even missiles from shore-based batteries. [8:36] Colonel, is Iran really susceptible to this kind of economic pressure from the United States? [8:41] It depends. To some extent, yes, because, you know, 90 percent of their oil pre-war [8:49] goes through the Strait of Hormuz and through the Karg Island terminals. [8:54] So if you combine the blockade with, let's say, an attack on Karg Island and an occupation, [9:00] even a temporary occupation of Karg Island, that would have a major impact on the Iranians, [9:06] no question about it. [9:08] So they are susceptible to this, but there are also other ways for the Iranians to circumvent this. [9:14] They have a Caspian Sea connection with Russia, for example, [9:18] so they could use the Caspian Sea for trade between Iran and Russia. [9:22] It would minimize a lot of what they're able to do through the Strait of Hormuz currently, [9:27] but it would allow them to at least have a lifeline, [9:30] and that would not be controllable by the U.S. in any meaningful way. [9:34] It also impacts the Gulf states, the Arab Gulf states, [9:37] and they will be clamoring for a resolution to this issue. [9:42] With us now is retired General Wesley Clark. [9:44] He's the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander. [9:47] So the Strait is already effectively closed. [9:50] Is this blockade likely to either get Iran back to the negotiating table, [9:54] forced to reopen the Strait, or does Iran have the leverage here? [9:58] How are you seeing this? [10:00] Well, I see this blockade is helping the United States by giving us leverage. [10:05] We're blockading not only the Strait, but all the Iranian coastline. [10:09] So you may recall that last week a couple of Chinese ships docked in Iran, [10:15] not through the Strait, but along the Arabian Sea, [10:17] and they delivered rocket fuel, or what's required as a component of the rocket fuel, to Iran. [10:25] We didn't stop that, apparently. [10:26] But we'll stop it from here on. [10:29] And so this cuts off their ability to do trade. [10:32] They can't come out of the Strait or use other ports along the Iranian coastline. [10:38] So it definitely gives us leverage. [10:39] It's difficult, takes a lot of ships, a lot of attention, [10:43] but I'm sure we're going to be able to do it. [10:46] Yeah, tell us a little bit more about that. [10:48] What's needed here, the military assets. [10:50] What would go in to creating a blockade like this? [10:57] The question is, how close can you get to the Iranian coast? [11:01] And then how much do you need to seize or secure these vessels if they're trying to run the blockade? [11:08] So we'll take, let's say, eight to ten destroyers or frigates, spread them along the coastline. [11:16] We'll have a couple of carrier task forces behind that, deeper away from the Iranian coastline. [11:23] We'll have aircraft overhead. [11:25] We'll be observing. [11:26] We'll also have satellite coverage. [11:28] We'll see the ships. [11:29] We'll know who they are and the ones that are not affected, not going and working with Iran. [11:35] No problem. [11:37] If they're going into the port, coming out of the port, [11:39] or destined to go through the Strait of Hormuz for Iranian ports or come out from those ports, [11:45] they will be stopped and seized according to Central Command. [11:49] So it is a big military commitment. [11:52] It's both carrier task forces, but that's what they're trained to do. [11:57] What about the risk here for the service members? [12:00] There's no R&R for the people that are out there. [12:08] I mean, this is an extended deployment, so they're going to be out there for a long time. [12:13] Now, we have to be aware that Iran has area anti-access, area denial munitions. [12:24] As President Trump said, the carrier Lincoln was attacked by 101 missiles. [12:30] So we're not going to get the carriers very close to the coast. [12:35] The destroyers will have to pace themselves. [12:37] Will they be 100 miles, 200 miles? [12:40] Got to have some standoff. [12:41] They've got to have air cover on them out there. [12:45] And so this is a tricky mission. [12:47] But right now, the ceasefire is still in effect. [12:50] Now, Iran has said this blockade violates the ceasefire. [12:55] But it's one thing to say that. [12:57] It's another thing to start shooting. [12:59] If the shooting starts, it will certainly be returned, and it will be returned very forcefully. [13:05] So I think this is a necessary step up in leverage for the United States. [13:11] I'm sorry that all of our European allies haven't participated in this, but that's okay. [13:18] We've got an adequate force out there to do this, and hopefully it will have its effect, [13:24] and we'll be back to the negotiating table with greater leverage soon. [13:29] U.S. Central Command says this blockade, scheduled to begin right now, will be enforced, and I quote, [13:36] against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas. [13:43] What does that actually look like in practice, to your mind? [13:46] Well, in practice, Becky, the U.S. Navy is going to be working hard to have visibility on all the ports [13:59] as well as all the ships. [14:01] And just watching your graphic earlier, you can see there's still a lot of activity out there, [14:06] even if it's not moving through the strait. [14:08] So having the effect of an unblinking eye that is constantly watching everything, potential threats, [14:16] potential ships that might need to be stopped. [14:19] And, of course, they'll know which ships are Iranian ships or they're flagged by other countries, [14:25] which ones may have already paid some sort of a toll. [14:30] This will be an important part of the operation. [14:32] It's not just the ships that are out there, but it's knowing about what is out there and what's moving. [14:37] And how will they intervene to prevent vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas? [14:51] Right. [14:52] So, of course, there's maritime traffic. [14:55] There's rules for moving at sea. [14:57] There's communications that all of the different ships' captains are speaking over. [15:04] And so the Navy's commanders will address the ship, you know, to tell them to stop, wait to be boarded, [15:15] or to respond to whatever orders they might get from the U.S. Navy. [15:19] So there's a lot of communication that's going on between the blockading force and those ships [15:25] that may be subject to either boarding or the need to return to port [15:30] or whatever instructions are going to be given. [15:32] So it's not like they're out there banging into each other. [15:35] There's a lot of communication that has to go on. [15:38] Obviously, if somebody disobeys or disregards what they're being told by the U.S. Navy, [15:44] then it gets a little bit more dicey. [15:46] Just to bring people up to speed here, okay, this is the Strait of Hormuz. [15:50] This is the 20-mile stretch separating Iran from Oman here, only about a two-mile shipping lane. [15:55] And for the last six weeks, there's been virtually no traffic through, [15:59] just one, two, maybe three ships a day. [16:02] And it's important to note that almost all of those vessels have been leaving from Iran. [16:08] These are the various oil ports on Iran's coast. [16:10] They've been Iranian vessels, or they've been vessels that Iran let through, [16:13] carrying Iranian oil, bringing back money, sort of, to Iran. [16:19] So, if the United States does carry out this blockade, talk to me about what the goal here is. [16:28] Well, John, you had it right. [16:29] Look, every time I've negotiated with Iran, they come in, they're the weaker power, [16:34] but they come in with something. [16:35] They understand that no negotiations work without leverage. [16:38] And they come in, they're holding hostages, or they're attacking American troops, [16:42] or I've been with the Iranians in Oman, [16:44] where they shut down a passage in the Red Sea through the Houthis, one of their proxies. [16:48] So, what happened in Pakistan, John, Iran came in and basically put a proverbial loaded gun on the table. [16:54] And they said, we control the Strait of Hormuz, the strait will remain closed, [16:59] other than our ships and ships that we approve through a passageway up near the Iranian border. [17:06] There's kind of a separate route. [17:08] And the Americans could have done two things. [17:10] They could have tried to put more on the table to try to open up the Strait of Hormuz, [17:15] or put a bigger gun on the table. [17:16] And that's basically what's happened. [17:19] And this will go into effect, John, in two hours. [17:21] Whether or not it works, we'll see. [17:23] But it's basically the Americans saying, actually, what's going to happen is the strait will be open to everyone but your ships. [17:30] And this is the first time ever we're in uncharted waters, no pun intended, that we have a blockade on Iran. [17:36] They cannot get their oil out of the Gulf. [17:39] And it's a big move that we're making. [17:42] I think the Navy can do it. [17:43] But, you know, we'll see how it plays out. [17:46] Now, importantly, John, the ceasefire is in place. [17:48] The ceasefire lasts until April 22nd. [17:52] And this is kind of, I would see this as, this is still a negotiation. [17:57] It doesn't mean that we're on the precipice of the war starting again. [18:00] But Iran could react here by breaking the ceasefire. [18:02] They could strike ports in the Gulf. [18:04] They could strike some ships. [18:05] I don't think they'll do that. [18:07] But this is going to play out here over the next week. [18:10] It's a big move that President Trump just made. [18:13] And it is going to really bite the Iranians if it works because this is how, this is their economic lifeline. [18:19] So you said something very interesting there. [18:21] And what the president has said is that other vessels leaving from other ports can go through. [18:26] If you're from Qatar, if you're up in Kuwait, the UAE, those vessels can go through. [18:30] But the Iranians have been saying they can't. [18:32] And there's no indication that the Iranians are going to change that position. [18:36] So the end result here might be, at least for the time being, that nothing, nothing gets through the straight-of-form moves. [18:43] And that's what oil markets are reacting to this morning. [18:45] You can see prices up 7 percent West Texas and Brent crude. [18:49] Then the question becomes, is who can sort of withstand more pain for the longest period of time here, Brett? [18:58] Is it Iran suffering because it's not getting anything, or is the rest of the world suffering from the jump in oil prices? [19:05] What's your sense of who can last longer? [19:08] That's right, John. [19:08] I remember standing there by that board very early in this crisis saying, you know, war is ultimately a test of wills. [19:14] And that is still what we see playing out. [19:16] I think the Iranians are very surprised, actually, that the American side made this move. [19:20] I do not think they anticipated it. [19:22] I thought they believed that the economic pressure was really biting [19:26] and that we were going to have to kind of sue at the table to try to get the straight open. [19:30] And we've now done the opposite. [19:32] But, yeah, it's a test of wills. [19:33] I mean, so far here, actually, the American side and the president are showing that they are determined [19:40] to achieve at the negotiating table now what they have demanded from the beginning. [19:46] And that means an abandonment of Iran's enrichment program, [19:48] which is the cornerstone of a nuclear program if you want to have the potential for a weapon, [19:53] and some other things that they're demanding. [19:55] It's a high-stakes game, John. [19:56] I don't know where it's going to go. [19:58] But I do think, given that the Iranians are using the Strait of Hormuz as their main leverage card, [20:04] and they've said it openly, it's what we've known they might always do for decades. [20:08] It's one reason we actually never did a military campaign like this, because of the risk. [20:13] They're now doing it. [20:14] And we're trying to combat it by saying, okay, well, if you're going to shut the Strait of Hormuz, [20:18] it's going to be shut to your tankers, and we will use our assets to open it to others. [20:23] One important thing, John, over the weekend also, while these talks are going on in Pakistan, [20:27] and I don't want to just drive by the fact these are the highest-level talks between the Iranians and the Americans [20:32] since Iran's revolution in 1979. [20:35] So, again, unprecedented. [20:38] But two American naval destroyers went through that international passageway in the Strait of Hormuz [20:43] that's been used for decades that the Iranians have said is mined and is dangerous. [20:47] That was an important show of force, and, again, trying to build confidence for the shippers to use that passageway. [20:53] But this is going to take a long time. [20:54] I dealt with this in the Red Sea. [20:55] Even when we had a military coalition to help open it up, [20:58] it's very difficult for the confidence of the shippers and the insurance companies [21:02] to put those ships and those cargoes through. [21:05] But let's hope it works.