EU-Israel relations under strain over Middle East tensions — Inside Story

[0:01] Within the EU, a split is growing over how to respond to Israel's actions in the Middle East. [0:06] Some members want to suspend a trade deal, but its staunchest allies have filed the move. [0:11] Can a divided bloc become a voice against Israel's aggression? This is Inside Story. [0:17] And welcome to the program. I'm Imran Khan. More than a million people have signed a petition [0:39] asking the EU to suspend a trade deal with Israel for its atrocities in Gaza. And three [0:45] member states Spain, Ireland and Slovenia tabled a proposal backing that call. Suspension would [0:52] have required a unanimous approval, but Israel's close partners like Germany blocked the move. [0:57] Still, the relationship between Brussels and its biggest trading partner is under increasing [1:02] scrutiny. So can the EU become a strong force opposing Israel's actions in the Middle East? [1:08] Will it stand on the side of human rights and international law against Washington? [1:12] We'll discuss all of this with our guests shortly. But first, this report from Imogen Kimber. [1:19] Israel's relationship with Europe is being tested once again. Spain, Ireland and Slovenia have called [1:25] for the suspension of the European Union's special partnership with Israel. They point to the new [1:30] death penalty law for Palestinians, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the increase in construction of [1:37] illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank. We are a people who are friends of the people of Israel. [1:43] But no, we do not agree with the actions being taken by their government. And a government that [1:48] violates international law and therefore violates the principles and values of the European Union [1:53] cannot be a partner of the European Union. The association agreement has been in place since [2:02] 2000 and allows for free trade between Israel and the EU. The exchange of goods and services amounted [2:09] to about 50 billion dollars in 2024. It includes an obligation to respect human rights and democratic [2:16] principles, which the countries say Israel is in breach of. Speaking alongside the Lebanese prime [2:23] minister, the French president also questioned Israel's commitment to the terms. [2:27] It is clear that if Israel continues with this policy, which ultimately runs counter to its very [2:36] own history, we cannot simply carry on as though nothing was happening. Since the Israeli military [2:43] intensified its attacks on Lebanon in March and expanded its occupation, it's killed more than 2,400 [2:50] people, displaced 1.2 million and razed towns and villages across the south of the country. [2:56] Last week, Italy canceled its defense cooperation deal with Israel after Israeli troops fired on [3:03] Italian UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. However, it joined Germany in blocking the halt to the trade accord. [3:09] Given that the suspension of the association agreement needs anonymity, there was no support for this [3:17] that is needed in the room. And the measures that we have already on the table that require qualified [3:25] majority will require states shifting their position. [3:29] Some EU members are calling for dialogue with Israel, while others argue European countries are expected to [3:36] defend international law. So the matter is likely to be debated again when the bloc's foreign ministers meet [3:42] next month. Imogen Kimba, Al Jazeera for Inside Story. [3:46] Now, let's bring in our guests. Joining us from Dublin is Bobby McDonough, a former Irish ambassador [3:56] to the EU, Italy and the UK. Daniel Levy is in London. He's the president of the US Middle East Project [4:03] and a former Israeli negotiator. And in Tel Aviv, Dan Perry, the publisher of Ask Questions Later on [4:09] Substack and a former editor for the Associated Press for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. A warm [4:15] welcome to you all. Let's go to Dublin and Bobby McDonough. Bobby, let me just ask the obvious [4:20] question first. Is Israel losing support within the European Union? [4:27] I think there are two levels. There's first of all a government level and then there's a public level. [4:32] I think at government level, I think there is a shift. I mean, we've seen Italy change its position. [4:37] We also have a new government in Hungary, which is likely to take a less sympathetic attitude to what [4:42] Israel has been doing. At public level, I think there's a very wide measure of public anger about [4:49] some of the things that the Israeli government has been doing. That is not anti-Israel in principle. [4:54] It's certainly not anti-Semitism in the vast majority of cases. But it isn't possible to watch what's been [5:00] happening in Gaza or the relentless assault on the rights of Palestinians in the West Bank without [5:05] public opinion changing. I don't think that the government as a whole and the Council of Ministers [5:09] is fully in line with what public opinion is feeling here. And that means that the standing [5:14] of the European Union risks being somewhat damaged with its own citizens unless it takes action in this [5:20] area. Let's go to Daniel Levy, who's in London. This is a problem for Israel because it's not just [5:28] losing support within the EU. But like Bobby says, public opinion globally is shifting against Israel, [5:35] right? Well, that is the case. But it only becomes a problem that actually imposes itself [5:47] on Israel's policy orientation, public debate and strategic considerations if it leads to palpable [5:55] consequences. And right now, we're not really in that zone. And the decision not to decide yesterday, [6:03] de facto, therefore, to continue the existing bilateral arrangements with Israel taken at the [6:08] pan-European level, means that Israel can carry on with impunity. And we see that as long as the impunity [6:16] holds, Israel goes up the escalatory ladder. So the question is that after we saw Europe take a pass on acting [6:29] collectively in a serious way, despite the shifts in public opinion that Bobby shared with us, during [6:35] everything we saw done in Gaza, when Europe saw that its own credibility, its own reputation, its own standing [6:46] with its own public, was not enough. That this significantly impacted the international architecture [6:52] of law, the multilateral institutions. None of that was enough. But now we see something else. [7:03] We see what you could call a kind of Israel impunity tax, because that impunity emboldened Israel further, [7:09] and Israel pulled the US into this war against Iran. And this time, what Europeans face isn't that these [7:16] perhaps abstract things, international law, human rights, but they face a situation in which economic [7:23] growth is down, inflation is up. This is the biggest economic energy shock in decades. Every European is [7:32] feeling this now. And make no mistake, it's a consequence of dealing with Israel with impunity. [7:37] And yet, even under these circumstances, they scurry for cover collectively, and they do not act vis-a-vis [7:44] Israel. So I think this has become a much bigger question. It's about the future of Europe, as much [7:49] as it is about the future of Palestinians, or Israelis, or Lebanese, etc. [7:55] Let's go to Dan Perry. Dan, is this unpopularity all down to one man? Is this Benjamin Netanyahu? Or is [8:02] this, as I suspect, you know, the fact that Israel is now much more openly racist, and much more right-wing [8:08] than it ever has been? I'm not sure I'd agree with those assertions, but it's much, much about one man, yes. [8:19] I think Israel faces a major fork in the road, not just in Europe's attitude towards it, and the world's attitude, [8:28] but its entire reality. And down one road goes the Netanyahu coalition, extreme right, ultra-religious, [8:37] and loggerheads with the region and the world continuing. And down the other path goes a major [8:44] course correction, which I think would happen, and would impact how the world deals with Israel. [8:50] Now look, some of the opposition to Israel is visceral and permanent, but I think what is pushing [8:57] things in a direction of an anti-Israel dynamic is indeed the actions that the Netanyahu government [9:03] has taken, especially in the past couple of years, but also its whole zeitgeist. Netanyahu is parts of [9:09] this global cabal of elected autocrats. One of them was just ousted in Hungary, and that changes [9:17] everything about how Europe itself views Hungary. I think something similar will happen in Israel if [9:21] Netanyahu is removed, yeah. Daniel, do you agree with that? Do you agree that it's all down to Netanyahu? [9:26] Well, it's a nice story that people can tell themselves, and there's an element to the [9:35] in-your-face radicalism of the current government. But pause and look for a moment at what the so-called [9:43] opposition, at least on the Zionist benches, this doesn't include the parties representing the [9:48] Palestinian Arab community who have small pockets of support among Israeli Jews, but pause and look [9:53] for a moment among what that Zionist opposition is saying. None of them have opposed the war in Gaza, [9:59] none of them have opposed what's being done in Lebanon, none of them have opposed pulling America [10:04] into this war against Iran. They say maybe it could have been conducted differently, maybe the [10:09] shelters should have been better prepared. But what they're fundamentally saying is more of the same [10:16] shorn of some of the most ugly rhetoric. Yes, some of those opposition leaders have said, [10:22] well, alongside the military, we also need to offer political solutions, but none of them are offering [10:28] a political alternative that embraces international law, human rights, or embraces pragmatism and [10:34] realism. And so you don't have something else on offer. It may be enough, by the way, because I don't [10:41] think Europe is looking to use its leverage. Let's acknowledge Europe has massive leverage, but it's [10:46] not looking to use that leverage. And therefore, it may be enough to fend those things off. But the [10:52] malaise may run a lot deeper than what was just described. This is fundamentally about, can the [10:59] Zionist project coexist with the region, with Palestinians in peace? And actual existing Zionism [11:05] as practiced by the state of Israel is telling us time and time again that an ethno-supremacist state [11:11] cannot do that. Dan, did you want to jump in there before I move to Bobby? I did. I did. Daniel's [11:18] right that the issue is hugely complex and it won't be resolved in a total way, in an immediate [11:26] way, by Netanyahu's ouster. I don't want to oversimplify. But you misrepresent the Israeli [11:31] opposition, which is in a bind, because they're trying to maximize the vote and so appeal to right-wing [11:36] voters. I'm sure you're not naive and you understand that. But the opposition in Israel, [11:39] were it to come to power, would absolutely, absolutely end the coddling of extreme [11:47] terrorist settlers, basically, in the West Bank, would seek some sort of partition of the Holy [11:54] Land, essentially, dividing it between Israelis and Palestinians in some way that they think they [11:59] can manage. It might not satisfy all the demands of the Palestinians, but they're going to try, for [12:04] sure. And whereas, of course, most Israelis support the eradication of Hezbollah and Hamas and the [12:12] Iranian regime, something I think the Europeans support as well, just not Israel's methods, [12:18] they would go about it very, very differently. So I think it is just wrong and inaccurate. [12:20] Sorry. Let's bring in Daniel here. Bobby, I'm going to come to you because I want to pick up with it. [12:24] One sentence. I want to pick up with these things with you. But Daniel, go on. Yeah, go ahead. [12:31] Literally one quick comment. I think we take an easy route when we say the problem is radical [12:38] settlers. The settler phenomenon does not exist without the state, without the military, without [12:44] the tax subsidies, without everything that every government of any hue has provided. And secondly, [12:48] I agree with Dan, it would look different. I think the alternatives are genocide or apartheid. [12:55] Apartheid is what the opposition offers, a partition which is banned who stands. I simply am not a fan [13:01] of either apartheid or genocide. Bobby, there's a lot of... Sorry, sorry. I want to come to Bobby first [13:07] because I want to get the European angle on this. I mean, there's a lot of division within Europe when [13:13] it's come to the issue of Israel. But broadly speaking, Israel is an important trading partner. [13:18] It's the biggest trading partner. And it sees itself as being the democracy that's in the [13:23] Middle East and almost part European. So there's a natural affinity there. Is that damaging to the [13:30] European Union? [13:31] I think it's important, Imran, to understand the decision-making procedures of the European [13:39] Union. They may sound a little bit boring, but they're very important. Europe has to decide things [13:45] either by unanimity, in which case all member states have to agree, or by qualified majority, [13:50] in which most of them have to agree. And so it isn't the case, as I think you said earlier, [13:55] that there was a split growing amongst the EU member states. The starting point is that there [14:00] are 27 individual countries with different histories and different perspectives. And it's very, [14:05] very difficult to come together. So on the various actions that could be taken against Israel, [14:10] some require unanimity, such as suspending in full the association agreement. Others are possible by [14:16] qualified majority, like suspending the trade aspects of the agreement, or by putting tariffs on [14:22] products from the occupied territories. So it's not as though there is a monolithic European Union [14:31] sitting in an office in Brussels that's betraying its values. There are 27 independent countries, [14:37] and of course Germany in particular has its own history. So it's very, very difficult for them to [14:43] come together. But I think that there's now a reasonable prospect, with the next meeting of [14:47] ministers on the 11th of May, and with Italy shifting its attitudes somewhat in Hungary, [14:52] and perhaps others, that some sort of action will be taken. I don't believe that there will be unanimity. [14:57] I also think, and I indeed said in my initial comment, that in terms of consistency, the European Union [15:03] should take action. Because in relation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it objects strongly to a large [15:09] country, or a very powerful country, invading and taking over land that doesn't belong to it, and [15:16] the relentless targeting of civilian infrastructure, and so on. So in terms of consistency and its own [15:21] values, the European Union, in my view and in Ireland's view, certainly should take whatever action [15:26] is possible within our decision-making procedures. But I wouldn't say, I wouldn't be quite as negative as [15:32] Daniel, because Europe exists on the basis of the rule of law. And on the one hand, that ought to [15:39] impel it to take stronger action against Israel at the moment. But it also has to respect its own [15:43] rule of law. And its own rule of law means that we cannot act unless our own procedures are followed [15:49] and met. And that's extremely difficult. But I'm a little bit hopeful that Europe will move in the [15:54] direction that it should have been moving in a long time ago. Which direction is that? Just clear that [15:59] up for us, because I'm interested to see, you know, what that means for Ireland, what that means for [16:04] you, for the European Union. Well, Europe is not anti-Israeli or anti-Semitic. Of course, [16:13] there are small pockets of very crass and ignorant people who are anti-Semitic. But I think the starting [16:19] point of most European citizens is that all human lives are of equal value. And what happened in the [16:27] the Hamas attacks on Israeli citizens was absolutely grotesque. And most Europeans and governments [16:33] were immediate in their condemnation of that. But the relentless taking over of Palestinian land and [16:39] the introduction of capital punishment to be administered by military courts and so on, is equally [16:46] abhorrent to most Europeans. So you did say, I think, Imran, that Netanyahu sort of claims that he's [16:53] representing Western values or democratic values. And in an ideal world and going back some time, [16:58] that was a large element of truth in that. But it certainly isn't the case now. And when we hear [17:03] Netanyahu saying, as we did just the other day, that Israel was acting on behalf of humanity, [17:10] we really, I mean, if it wasn't so tragic, we'd have to laugh. I want to bring in Daniel here. I want [17:15] to widen this out slightly to the US. J Street, a very powerful Israeli lobby, has suggested that [17:23] we need to, America needs to normalize its relations with Israel. At the moment, [17:28] America almost has a special nation, a favored nation status when it comes to Israel. They're [17:34] talking about arms here. They're saying Israel shouldn't get a discount on arms. It should pay [17:39] the full price. They're still going to sell them the arms. They just want them to pay the full price. [17:43] That's quite extraordinary coming from a pro-Israeli lobby in the US. Do you think US [17:49] attitudes towards Israel are shifting? Daniel? Well, undoubtedly, they're shifting. You see [17:59] what's happening with public opinion. You see where the center of gravity, very pronounced amongst [18:06] Democrat voters and the inability of Democrat electeds to continue to ignore that. Hence, [18:13] the overwhelming support amongst Democrats in the Senate for a small measure of restricting certain [18:20] arms or bulldozer sales to Israel. But I think this is about a bigger question of where America is [18:27] going. And to go back to our previous conversation, where Europe is going. And here, Israel is making [18:34] a certain bet. It's a bet more suited to the current leadership. But it's a larger bet. Because Bobby [18:43] just mentioned Europe is committed to the rule of law. And my question, I think, would be, [18:48] what is Europe's purpose today? Because I think we are seeing the eclipse of the hegemony of an old [18:56] liberal lord. And what Israel is going along with, it doesn't have to be Viktor Orban. It's something, [19:04] I think, more subtle, which is in a world of geopolitical fluidity, Israel can bring certain power tools, [19:15] certain things that Europe might want to the table in a Europe that is questioning its purpose. And [19:20] therefore, alongside the kinds of measures that Spain, Slovenia, Ireland, others are calling for [19:28] and are bilaterally taking, you have the strengthening of the arms relationship between Israel and certain [19:35] European states, especially Germany. Germany has just signed some of its biggest arms contracts. [19:40] You see energy relationships, for instance, with Greece and Cyprus. You see what are the future nodes of [19:47] connectivity going to be? There was this push for an India-Middle East-Europe corridor, which [19:53] Israel was the centre of gravity. And so I think Europe has to ask itself the question, especially [19:59] with the US, which you referred to, being in the state it's in, going after Europe, showing contempt [20:04] for Europe and for NATO. But the US also offering a different way. Marco Rubio's speech at Munich [20:10] Security Conference basically said, join us in a new century of Western civilisation imposing itself [20:18] imperially on others. And Israel fits right into that picture. So Europe can go back to being an [20:28] enlightened place. It can go in that direction. But Europe can go in other directions. Europe can [20:34] rediscover its ideological extremism. We've seen a Europe that has conducted genocides. And Israel is [20:41] hoping that it is going to be working with a Europe that is willing to put all those other things aside [20:48] and go with what Israel is trying to offer. The counterbalance to that is that I don't think that [20:53] is where most actual Europeans are. So it is up to citizens, to voters, to consumers, to workers, [21:02] to unionists, to drive policy. If politicians are unsure what to do in this moment of fluidity, [21:10] what they do about America. It's the voters and the citizens who are going to have to drive this [21:15] because you have a head of the commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for instance, talking about [21:20] the threat that Turkey represents. Daniel, I'm going to stop you there because I want to, [21:25] we are running out of time and I want to bring in Dan here. Dan, there's a conversation that is [21:31] happening here that is talking about Israel's relationship with Europe, Israel's relationship [21:36] with its closest ally, America, and that that seems to be shifting also probably slightly, [21:42] you know, in a in a way that is perhaps not palatable, but it's like it's happening. But [21:49] my question to you is this, is this a conversation that's happening in Israel? Are Israelis worried about [21:55] the shift or do they think their relationships with Europe and America are solid? The smart ones are, [22:04] but I think the country at large isn't quite as worried as it should be about the potential demise [22:09] of its relationship with Europe, which accounts for over a third of its exports. And if you throw in [22:16] the UK, it approaches half of its exports. It would be disastrous for Israel. [22:20] They know there's a problem, but as Daniel said, Israel has made a bet that politics in the West [22:28] might go a certain direction. And I'm not sure that bet is wrong. It's a vastly different Europe. [22:33] If, let's say, you know, the national rally wins in France, or whether in the UK where Daniel resides, [22:41] the government is headed by Nigel Farage, or the Green Party even, you don't know what's going to happen [22:46] in the UK. I would also, however, distinguish between the Israeli government, which is not [22:52] pursuing Israel's interests, I fear, and Israeli people at large that are divided, as are, as are [22:57] the Europeans, and as are the Americans. America is very different if Rubio wins, or, you know, [23:03] if Trump had a third term, that's one America. A normal Republican is another America, and the American [23:12] left coming to power is vastly different, and would quickly turn on Israel as well. And I think a lot [23:18] of the confusion that Europeans feel about what to do with their anger over the methods, and the [23:25] essence of the Netanyahu coalition, is because they themselves don't quite know what to do about [23:32] their own values. Do their values really align with acquiescence to, and cooperation with, [23:39] the criminal regime in Iran? They don't like the war, which they weren't consulted about, [23:45] of course they don't, and they don't like the short-term inconvenience. But do they like the [23:50] Iranian regime massacring tens of thousands of protests? They would like democracy, sure, [23:55] but do they really apply democratic principles in all their association agreements? Israel has an [24:01] association agreement, but so does Lebanon, that systematically denies the Palestinians basic [24:05] rights. Danny, you're suggesting that because Israel and other states, Iran and Lebanon, don't have [24:14] perhaps robust democratic institutions that Europe can get away with it. Europe can get away with it [24:20] because they don't do it. I mean, is that what you're suggesting? I'm suggesting that it's not so [24:26] simple who the good and bad guys are. There's a complex, complex situation. Right. We're looking for [24:31] good and bad guys in politics is a fool's errand. But I want to bring in Bobby Donner here. Bobby, [24:37] just this idea that Israel is embedded within Europe, the fabric of European, I just want to [24:43] explore that a bit more because it does come down to money. It does come down to trade. So it's very [24:49] difficult for Europe to have a unified position, but they can have a position on human rights abuses. [24:55] They can have a position. They can take criticism to the floor of the European Union and discuss it, [25:05] but they don't seem to do that either. Israel gets a free pass, I feel. Well, I'm sorry to come back to [25:13] the catch 22 of the rule of law. Europe is committed to the rule of law, but that also means that it has [25:19] to follow its own complex decision making procedures. And I'm extremely disappointed with some of the things [25:24] that von der Leyen has said. I'm extremely disappointed that Europe hasn't yet taken action on what [25:28] Israel is doing, but I am a bit optimistic that Europe will, over the coming weeks, start to take [25:33] action, which even if it isn't very forceful in practical terms, it will send an important message, [25:40] given the sort of narrative that the Israeli government is trying to put forward. And I would also, [25:45] if I may, say one more thing. I wouldn't be too dismissive of the European Union with all its faults. [25:50] The European Union accepts the inevitability of imperfection. It doesn't claim to be perfect like [25:55] Trump. It doesn't claim to be perfect like Putin or like Netanyahu. It accepts that the world is [26:01] imperfect, and that's why the European Union exists. But if you look at the world, where is there [26:06] sufficient heft to put forward decent values? It's certainly not in Putin's Russia. It's certainly not [26:12] in Trump's America. There are a lot of other decent countries like Norway or Canada and so on. But if there [26:18] is to be sufficient heft to assert imperfectly the values that are still important, it will be the [26:24] European Union. So I think it's very useful that Daniel reminds us of the imperfection of the European [26:30] Union and encourages the European Union to be more forceful. But if we don't support the European Union, [26:36] and if we don't, in the European Union, try collectively to prevent Farage and Le Pen and so on [26:41] so on from getting into government, then the world will be a much poorer place. [26:45] Daniel, just really quickly, I mean, the European Union, the UN, these are the institutions that [26:51] we've got that we have to deal with. So, you know, they are flawed, but are they effective? [26:56] If they choose to be, that's the bottom line. And where we come out in this conversation is [27:06] that there is tremendous leverage that can be used. Europe is Israel's largest trade partner by far. [27:14] Europe is where Israel has much of its overseas assets parked. We've seen those gone after in [27:19] other instances. Europe is where Israelis go for tourism. Now, should Israelis be asked to at least [27:24] sign a declaration that they haven't committed war crimes in Gaza if they are going to go to [27:28] third countries? And Europe helped set a norm. Sorry, Daniel. We've actually run out of time now, [27:35] but I want to thank all our guests, Stan Perry, Bobby McDonough, and Daniel Levy. And thank you [27:40] two for watching. You can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. [27:45] And for further discussion, go to our Facebook page. That's facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside [27:50] Story. And you could also join the conversation on X. Our handle is at AJ Inside Story. That's [27:56] it from me, Imran Khan, and the team here. Al Jazeera's coverage continues in a moment. So stay tuned.