Enten: Trump is fueling a nationwide blue wave

[0:00] So you want to talk about a state that Donald Trump has won three times, three times, but it [0:05] looks to me that Roy Cooper, the former governor of the great state of North Carolina, has a real [0:11] shot here. Look at the cash prediction market. Chance Cooper, the Dem, actually wins this race. [0:15] His chances have gone way up. Back on October 7th, it was 63 percent. Of course, that was six [0:20] months ago. Now look at this, an 86 percent chance to flip a Senate seat in a state that Donald [0:27] Trump won by three points, and he is the clear favorite at this point, the former governor. [0:33] Now we call it, we call a chance for a Democratic breakthrough, right? [0:36] Yes. [0:37] But one thing I do want to point out is there have been Democrats in the Senate from North [0:41] Carolina before, fairly recently, but maybe I'm dating myself here. [0:45] I think you're dating yourself a little bit here, Mr. Berman. Why do I say that? Because in fact, [0:49] the last Democrat to actually win a Senate race in North Carolina was back when I was in college. [0:56] It was Kay Hagan. [0:57] Back in 2008. In fact, the only living former Democratic senator is John Edwards, [1:03] who won all the way back the last midterm win, was in 1998. I was in elementary school there, [1:10] grammar school there, to really dating myself. That is how long ago. But as you pointed out, [1:15] this 2008 was a wave year, and what you see is when Democrats do well nationally, [1:21] and they are doing well right now, you can, in fact, flip a Senate seat, as right now, [1:26] Roy Cooley. [1:27] So, in a wave year, Democrats can do well because maybe the president's dragging the [1:35] incumbent party down in the state. What is the president's approval in North Carolina? [1:38] Yeah, okay. So, Donald Trump has won North Carolina three times. He won it by three points [1:43] back in 2024. But right now, he is dragging. He is dragging Democrats down because just take a [1:49] look here. Look at this. Okay, Trump's net approval rating in North Carolina. John's [1:53] off on the side laughing. Look at this. In spring of 2025, [1:57] Donald Trump was three points underwater overall. Among independents, he was 18 points [2:01] underwater. Look at how low he has fallen now. Among independents, he's 42 points underwater, [2:07] and overall, he's 15 points underwater. Right now, North Carolina is not a pink state. It is [2:12] much more of a purple, dare I say, light blue state with how unpopular Donald Trump is, [2:18] dragging down Republicans, and he may, in fact, push Roy Cooper into the Senate. [2:23] And again, once again, I'll just point out the independents here, and that is a stagnation. [2:27] And I was only laughing at your physicality. You must burn thousands of calories during this [2:31] segment. All right, we're talking about it. The president's net approval there. How about the war? [2:34] How about the war? This is just another thing that I think is dragging down Republicans in [2:38] the state. Look at this. Net approval of U.S. military action in Iran among North Carolinians, [2:42] among all voters, 19 points underwater. Again, this independent number. Look at this. We're [2:48] talking 41 points underwater. This war, if it continues on, will continue to drag Republican [2:53] candidates down across the political map. All right, very interesting to see that. [2:57] Particularly in a state where there is a large military presence. And this one is for political [3:00] junkies out there, because I think there's no Supreme Court in the country that is as closely [3:04] watched, for whatever reason, as the Wisconsin court. There is a Supreme Court seat up tomorrow. [3:11] It is a, right now, conservative-held seat. And if liberals are able to flip it, again, [3:17] it's not party registration there, but think R&D, conservative-liberal. If liberals are able to [3:22] switch, it would give them really an overwhelming majority on that court. Let's get to CNN chief [3:26] data analyst, Harry. [3:27] And I can't explain why everyone cares so much about Wisconsin Supreme Court. So just take my [3:31] word for it, we do. What are the prediction markets saying about this race, first of all? [3:35] I'm just a big fan of Green Bay. That's what's going on here. Look, the bottom line is this. [3:39] Chris Taylor, the liberal candidate, a heavy, heavy favorite going into tomorrow's chance. [3:45] Taylor wins the Supreme Court race. Look at this. 99%, according to the Cal State prediction [3:50] markets. Again, this race is officially nonpartisan, but she's the liberal in this race. [3:54] This would take the court from 4-3 liberal, [3:57] to 5-2 liberal. Democrats, liberals, very ecstatic going into the polls tomorrow. Of course, [4:03] we'll have to wait and see. One of the reasons I know we watch Wisconsin so closely is because [4:06] it's the closest thing I think that we have to a 50-50 state. It's basically 50-50 in presidential [4:11] elections. So we're always looking for trends on who might have an edge there. Where's the [4:15] enthusiasm? Okay, I think this is why it's so important. Look, political junkies like John and [4:19] myself, we're very interested in who controls Wisconsin Supreme Court. For the rest of you out [4:23] there, the normies out there, why is Wisconsin so important? [4:27] John mentioned, of course, it's split on the presidential level. But more than that, [4:30] the trends in Wisconsin tend to go countrywide. What are we talking about in terms of this? [4:36] Enthusiasms, enthusiasms, enthusiasms, to quote my dear friend John Berman there, [4:40] quoting somebody else. More enthusiastic voters for 2026. Look at this. At this point for the [4:45] Wisconsin Supreme Court race, Democrats have a 19-point edge on extremely motivated, [4:50] extremely enthusiastic voters. Look how similar that is to what we're seeing in the national [4:54] polls for the U.S. race for Congress, right? Look at that. [4:57] Democrats by 17. So what happens in Wisconsin, very unlikely to stay in Wisconsin. It is reflective [5:02] of what we're seeing nationally, which is Democrats are revved up and ready to go. [5:07] Which we, in fact, have seen in other off-year elections, yes? [5:10] Yes, this is exactly right. Wisconsin is part of a trend. Talk about the major statewide elections, [5:16] right? Take a look here in the 2025-2026 cycle so far. Democrats won in New Jersey, Governor. [5:22] They won in Virginia, Governor. Will they win in Wisconsin? Supreme Court, we'll have to wait and [5:26] see. But it looks... [5:27] A whole heck of a lot like what we saw back in the 2017-2018 cycle, right? NJ Gov, Virginia Gov, [5:34] Wisconsin Supreme Court, they flipped the seat there back in 2018. And of course, [5:38] Democrats went on to win the U.S. House bigly, bigly back in 2018. Democrats are hoping to go [5:43] three for three again, and therefore, they would, in fact, go on and win the House come November. [5:49] What has the Trump era meant for the Wisconsin Supreme Court? [5:52] Yeah, okay. So let's bring it back local to Wisconsin to those chiefs heads who are watching, [5:57] us from the Badger State. What does it mean? Okay, liberal held Wisconsin Supreme Court seats [6:02] pre-Trump. Liberals only held 29 percent of the Wisconsin Supreme Court seats. Look at this. If [6:08] the liberal wins tomorrow, if Taylor wins tomorrow, look at that. 71 percent. Donald Trump has made [6:13] Wisconsin, at least on the Supreme Court level, a very liberal state. [6:17] And this will be a trend that Democrats will hope to carry until November. Harry, [6:21] thank you very much. Thank you, John. We got a lot of news. So in the latest CNN poll, [6:27] Democrats have a six-point lead in the race for Congress. Now, there are two ways to look at that, [6:33] a six-point lead. One, and say, hey, the Democrats are ahead there. Democrats should feel good about [6:37] that. The other way to look at it is to say, for Democrats, is six points really enough? [6:43] CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is here. And that's the way that I think a lot of people are [6:49] beginning to question this. Given the political wins and whatnot, is six points really a big [6:53] enough lead for Democrats? Well, I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is [6:57] historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president. Because take a look here, [7:02] and I'm taking a look at the average of all the polls. Dem generic congressional ballot lead at [7:07] this point in the cycle with the Republican president. On average, their lead's actually [7:11] slightly less. It's five points. That's less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points, [7:16] and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points. So yeah, Democrats are ahead, [7:23] but they're only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating [7:27] of minus 20 to minus 30, depending on what polls you look at. You'd make the argument Democrats [7:32] should be way ahead, and they're just only sort of slightly ahead. Now, to be clear, five points [7:37] might be enough for them to retake the House, which is really a narrow margin. Would not take [7:42] much at all for Democrats to get this. The Senate is a different matter. Yeah, the Senate is a [7:47] different matter. I think five points is enough to take back the House. But in the Senate, five [7:51] points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map. Why do I say that? Because [7:58] people would win the Senate with this map. Let's say Republicans only hold onto the states that [8:02] Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49. Why? Because [8:09] what you would see is you would see that the Democrats would flip North Carolina, they would [8:13] flip Maine, but Republicans would hold on to Ohio, they'd hold on to Texas, and they'd hold on to [8:20] Alaska because Donald Trump won all of those states by greater than 10 points. And I will note, [8:28] we have the NCAA tournament going on. This is sort of the chalk scenario going on where the most [8:32] obvious events actually do occur. Because take a look, during the Trump era, look at this, flip the [8:38] Senate seat, midterm and presidential years, states the other party won by 10 plus points in the last [8:42] presidential election, zero, zero, zero times did a party flip those states. So we're talking about [8:48] places like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, where Trump won by double digits. Which is why the Democrats might [8:53] need a bigger lead than they have now if the Senate is really in play. [8:58] What else is going on now for the Democrats that maybe should cause them concern? [9:02] What might cause them concern? Why is that generic congressional ballot lead so low? [9:06] Because just take a look at this, net favorability, party ahead at this point, [9:10] midterm of years with the GOP president. In 2018, Dems were up by 12. In 2006, [9:15] on net favorability, which party you like more, Dems were ahead by 18. [9:18] Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability at this point by five points. So Democrats are [9:23] just simply put running behind their previous benchmarks, and they need to be running well [9:28] if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that map. [9:30] To be clear, both parties are wildly unfavorable right now. However, [9:35] Democrats are even more unpopular than Republicans. [9:38] Some of these charts are something Democrats should look at as they head into November. [9:41] Harriet, and thank you very much. [9:43] Thank you, Mr. Berman.