Enten: Trump gaining ground among Black voters

[0:00] President Trump celebrated after the Supreme Court's decision. Here's that moment. [0:05] When did it come out? Just now? [0:07] No, it came out this morning, but basically very much narrows the Voting Rights Act. [0:11] Was it considered a win for a movie? [0:12] A win for Republicans. [0:13] I love it. [0:16] CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten running the numbers on this one. [0:19] Harry, let's kind of baseline it for everyone right now. [0:22] How is the president doing right now with African-American voters, with black voters, [0:26] now versus this point in the first term? [0:28] Yeah, I think what we're seeing right now in the numbers is President Trump and the Republican Party [0:32] are chipping away at the long-term advantage that Democrats have had with black voters, [0:37] with African-Americans. [0:38] You can see it right here. [0:39] Look, Trump's approval among African-Americans at this point in term one, he was at 12%. [0:43] You know, he's been losing ground with a lot of people. [0:45] He's gaining. [0:47] He's gaining ground with African-Americans. [0:49] He's up to 16% at this point. [0:51] And you say, this isn't that big of a shift. [0:53] But I will tell you, Republicans absolutely love this shift that's going on [0:57] because Democrats have had such a long-term advantage. [1:00] The fact that he's actually gaining ground versus where he was in term number one, [1:05] this has major implications for elections down the line because Democrats, [1:10] especially in a lot of these tight races, you talk about places like Georgia right down in the south, [1:14] you see this type of movement for Trump actually gaining ground, [1:16] this could have major ramifications and help put Republicans over the top [1:21] in a number of southern places in the midterm elections. [1:23] But do you see this as part of a bigger trend? [1:25] I see this as absolutely part of a bigger trend. [1:28] Again, Donald Trump's Republican Party is absolutely gaining ground, [1:33] not just him gaining in terms of his approval rating, [1:35] but look at the party ID margin, Kate, because this to me was absolutely stunning. [1:40] Look at this party ID margin among African-Americans at this point. [1:43] In Trump term number one, Democrats had a 63-point advantage. [1:46] That is absolutely falling. [1:47] Look at where it is now. [1:48] A double-digit shift away. [1:51] Democrats, of course, still have the advantage, [1:52] but it's a 12-point shift to the Republican Party. [1:55] And I look back through Gallup's records. [1:57] They sent me their records. [1:58] And this, in fact, lead that Democrats have is actually smaller than any lead from 2006 to 2021. [2:06] So Democrats are leading. [2:07] But again, we're talking about chipping away. [2:09] Republicans are chipping away at this long-term advantage that Democrats have had among African-Americans. [2:15] We see it in terms of Trump's approval rating, [2:16] and we even see it to a wider degree among the party ID margin, [2:20] where all of a sudden there are a number of African-Americans who are walking away from the Democratic Party [2:25] and a number of them who are walking into the Republican tent. [2:28] That is very interesting, looking at that past Gallup information. [2:31] Yeah. [2:31] What does this mean for the race for control in Congress? [2:34] Okay, so you see this right here. [2:35] You see this 51-point advantage that Democrats have? [2:39] Significantly less than you see that 63-point advantage. [2:41] And what we will note is back in 2024, right, [2:44] Donald Trump put in a historically strong performance among African-Americans. [2:48] Democrats performed the worst in the generation. [2:51] Have they gained any of that coalition back from where they fell down to in 2024? [2:57] But take a look here. [2:58] Okay. [2:59] Choice for election among African-Americans. [3:01] Kamala Harris was leading amongst that group in the pre-election polling by 63 points. [3:05] Are Democrats gaining back any of that ground? [3:08] Uh-uh. [3:09] It's a 62-point advantage now. [3:10] Republicans are holding on to the gains that they made among African-Americans in 2024. [3:15] Republicans are gaining among African-Americans. [3:18] They are chipping away at that long-term advantage. [3:20] The Donald Trump-led Republican Party is making gains among African-Americans [3:23] that we simply put have not seen the Republican Party make in a generation. [3:27] Fascinating. [3:27] Good to see you here. [3:28] Thanks so much for putting it together. [3:30] Six justices all but threw away the Voting Rights Act of 1965. [3:35] Now, they left the words on the paper, but they erased the meaning. [3:39] The way poll taxes and literacy tests and jellybean counting tried to negate the 15th Amendment [3:47] that gave black people the right to vote. [3:50] Why? [3:51] Because voting is the single most important power in a democracy. [3:55] Not just the act of going to the polls and filling in some bubbles. [3:59] No, it's the ability to vote for your candidate of choice. [4:03] Now, you are not entitled to vote for the winner, but gerrymandering districts can mean that [4:09] your power is so watered down that you never even had a chance to choose who represents you [4:16] or pretends to. [4:17] Enter Louisiana. [4:20] The court struck down its map today, saying that lawmakers illegally used race to draw a [4:26] majority black district. [4:28] At the heart of the ruling was Section 2 of the Civil Rights Act that LBJ signed. [4:34] And before I explain Section 2, why don't you listen to what LBJ said when he signed it into [4:41] law? [4:41] Millions of Americans are denied the right to vote because of their color. [4:52] This law will ensure them the right to vote. [4:59] The wrong is one which no American in his heart can justify. [5:08] Ensure them the right to vote. [5:12] Section 2, it tried to prevent racial gerrymandering precisely because it diluted voting power. [5:19] And that's now all but out the window. [5:23] And already today, we saw Republican candidates across Alabama and Georgia and Mississippi and [5:28] Tennessee and South Carolina and others all push for the map to be redrawn to benefit their [5:35] party. [5:37] When did it come out? [5:38] Just now? [5:39] No, it came out this morning, but basically very much narrows the Voting Rights Act. [5:43] Was it considered a win for a win for Republicans? [5:45] I love it. [5:49] Do you? [5:51] Because I worked in the Voting Rights Section of the Civil Rights Division. [5:53] So I can tell you how instrumental Section 2 was to getting gerrymandered districts redrawn [6:01] to be fair or prevent the maps from even getting drawn in the first place. [6:07] It was critical to ensuring that voting rights meant anything to minority voters. [6:13] Now, it wasn't a cakewalk, but before today, you had a fighting chance to ensure that the [6:20] blood, the sweat, the tears, and the indignities, and the violence towards those who have the [6:25] audacity to believe in equality didn't fight and legislate in vain. [6:33] It understood that racism, it could be right in your face, but it could also be strategic [6:38] and covert. [6:39] So you could prove that a district was unconstitutionally gerrymandered, even if you couldn't show some [6:46] smoking gun that said, you know why I'm drawing this crazy salamander or goofy-shaped district? [6:53] To make sure that black and brown voters can't gain strength in numbers. [7:00] Who's right in that? [7:03] Now, if you could show that the map had that effect without those words, the map could be [7:09] redrawn. [7:09] But now the Supreme Court says, yeah, you have to bring that smoking gun. [7:15] It's not enough to show that black voters were targeted or that black voters feel the [7:21] brunt of an illegal practice. [7:23] No, now you've got to eliminate the possibility, no matter how remote and in the category of [7:29] pigs flying, that these black voters were targeted because they were black Democrats. [7:36] You likely have to prove that race, not political party, explains the harmful effect. [7:41] Welcome to the wink and the nod portion of what MLK and so many others fighting for civil [7:49] rights had to contend with. [7:53] It's also an extremely high bar that will likely be insurmountable in most cases to prove that. [8:00] And the why. [8:02] Why the majority did this is something you ought to pay close attention to because they said [8:09] that there had been vast social change, that's the phrase, particularly in the South that [8:15] have made these considerations, considerations, unnecessary. [8:21] Are we, are we back on the flawed theory that we live in a post-racial world? [8:28] Wow. [8:29] Tell that to my mother who was 13 years old when the Voting Rights Act of 1965 was passed. [8:35] Or tell it to my 13 year old son who just saw it become what Justice Elena Kagan called [8:41] a dead letter. [8:45] My first guest is a longtime champion of the Civil Rights Act and has not left the fight. [8:51] Former Attorney General under President Obama, Eric Holder, joins me now. [8:55] And I should note, I served as a career prosecutor during his tenure in the Civil Rights Division. [9:01] Attorney General, thank you so much for being here. [9:03] As you can imagine, this feels deeply personal to so many people. [9:07] And legally and analytically completely unhinged, frankly, to me. [9:12] But I have to ask you what your takeaway is, because there are those who will look at this [9:18] and say, see, gerrymandering is bad, even if it's meant to undo entrenched racial discrimination. [9:26] What's your thought? [9:29] Well, I got to tell you, I take this both personally and professionally. [9:32] I was 13 years old when the 65 Voting Rights Act was passed. [9:38] I was the attorney general who had to deal with that first attack on the Voting Rights Act, [9:43] the Shelby County case that has, unfortunately, my name attached to it. [9:48] And I've seen the dismemberment of the Voting Rights Act by the Roberts court. [9:53] And you have to ask yourself why. [9:56] John Roberts, when he was a young lawyer at the Justice Department, [9:59] apparently was against the Voting Rights Act. [10:02] And now that he is the chief justice of the United States, [10:06] he has finally reached that dream of his to really come up with a way [10:10] in which you get rid of the most important parts of the Voting Rights Act. [10:15] So I feel as personally, as well as professionally. [10:18] And it's something that I think we have to fight. [10:20] And we have to do all that we can to try to manage this crisis that we are presently in, [10:26] but then come up with long-term solutions so that we put this country back on the right path. [10:32] Are you persuaded by Justice Alito's statements that the country is seeing vast social change, [10:36] particularly in the South, as a reason, and what he wrote was, [10:40] black voters now participate in elections at similar rates as the rest of the U.S. [10:45] Is that persuasive enough to gut Section 2? [10:50] No. [10:51] I mean, the reason that people, black people, participate at essentially the same rate, [10:56] to the extent that that's true, is because of the protections that you saw in the Voting Rights Act of 1965. [11:02] Before that act was passed, you did not see significant black voter participation. [11:06] It was difficult to register. [11:08] It was difficult to vote. [11:10] 65 Voting Rights Act goes into effect. [11:12] You see a stark number of people, greater number of people, who register, who vote, [11:18] who ultimately get elected. [11:19] So, you know, and this notion that somehow or another, just because the nation has changed, [11:25] and it has changed, we have to acknowledge that. [11:27] Because if we don't, we do a grave disservice to those who sacrificed to give me opportunities [11:32] that they did not have. [11:34] But the nation is not yet at the place where it should be. [11:38] Race is still a factor. [11:40] If you look at economic factors, maternal death rates, any number of things, wealth, education, [11:47] related, black folks, Hispanic folks, are still not doing nearly as well as their white [11:53] fellow citizens. [11:54] Race is still a factor in this nation. [11:57] And of course, the Supreme Court has described partisan voting and gerrymandering as distinct [12:02] from race-based because of Section 2 and when it actually had teeth. [12:07] I mean, there's also been this debate that's gone on, Attorney General, that for years, [12:12] people have debated whether to expand the Supreme Court. [12:16] Obviously, at a time like this, in this 6-3 decision, along ideological lines, people are [12:21] very angry about the ability to have six people determine and unravel six decades' worth of progress. [12:28] Do you think that part of the conversation moving forward should involve the composition [12:35] or the numbers in the Supreme Court? [12:38] I think that should be a part of the conversation. [12:42] And I think we also have to realize when people say, well, you're just trying to pack the court. [12:46] Well, the court is already packed. [12:49] Merrick Garland never got a hearing. [12:51] And so he never had an opportunity to become a justice on the Supreme Court. [12:55] If rules had been followed as they normally had been, he would have been on the court. [13:00] And the rule was, well, he was too close. [13:03] It was too close to an election for him to get a hearing or even an interview. [13:07] Well, then Amy Coney Barrett comes along later on and is confirmed while people are in the [13:11] process of voting. [13:13] So those are two seats that probably should be seats appointed by a Democratic president. [13:18] So the criticism that in considering expanding the court is packing the court, and that's [13:24] something negative, is again something that Republicans will criticize the very thing that [13:29] they themselves did. [13:31] But I think that has to be a part of the conversation.