Enten runs the numbers before CNN’s CA gubernatorial primary debate

[0:00] Tomorrow night is going to be one of the final opportunities for voters to actually [0:03] get to hear from the Democrats and Republicans who are fighting to lead the most populous state [0:07] in the nation. CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten joins me now. And Harry, obviously, [0:12] there's going to be a lot of names on stage tomorrow night. What did the numbers that [0:16] you're seeing tell you about where these candidates stand going into this debate tomorrow? [0:22] Caitlin, it's an absolute mess. I mean, that's really the terms I would use for absolute mess, [0:27] because you mentioned the seven folks. And getting seven different candidates, [0:30] the polling numbers on a screen is quite difficult, but I was able to do it. But the reason I wanted [0:35] all seven is because how close they are to each other. I mean, just take a look at the top choices [0:39] of California governor. This is a recent CBS News You Go poll. The top candidate was the Republican, [0:44] Steve Hilton, at 16 percent. But Tom Steyer, a Democrat, was at 15. Then Javier Becerra was at 13. [0:50] Then you got Bianco at 10, another Republican. Katie Porter at 9. Mahan at 4. Villagorosa, [0:56] the former Los Angeles mayor at 4, all within 12 points of each other. And you were hinting [1:00] at it when it comes to the break. The top two advance to the November general election. [1:05] You could easily see two Republicans 16 and 10 advance. You could see two Democrats 15, [1:10] 13, 9 could advance. So the bottom line is that debate tomorrow is so important because this race [1:15] is so freaking close. Well, and you mentioned Tom Steyer. You have him at 15 percent in the polling [1:21] there. He's obviously one of the front runners, given those numbers. He's a billionaire. He's a [1:25] Democrat. People remember likely when he ran for president. How is his money working as he is [1:32] trying to woo voters? Well, I'll just tell you, if I had one dream in my life, besides having the [1:37] love of family, it would be to have the amount of money that Tom Steyer has and has been able to spend [1:43] in this governor's race so far. Because just look, take a look at this. Okay, ad spending for California [1:48] governor's top candidate spenders. Tom Steyer has already spent 145 million dollars. I almost [1:57] sound like, feel like Dr. Evil saying that. 145 million dollars. The next closest is Mahan [2:02] as a candidate spender. He has spent just 6 million dollars. You don't have to be a mathematical genius [2:08] to know that 145 million is way more than 6 million. It's 139 million more. Even when you take into [2:15] account the outside groups that are spending, the top outside group spending for Mahan is spending, [2:19] get this, 23 million dollars so far. So Tom Steyer is spending more money than anybody I could possibly [2:27] imagine spending to want to be the governor of California. But hey, it's a great state, I guess. [2:32] Well, I mean, talking about spending a lot of money, we've just been talking about gas prices with [2:37] Senator Andy Kim over in New Jersey. Here in California, gas is already expensive. The war is [2:42] only adding to that. How are we seeing that play out, Harry? [2:46] Yeah, I mean, let me just tell you, the amount of gas costs in California, top in the United States, [2:52] $6.11. That's the top state. The national average is just $4.46. And I will tell you that when you [2:59] talk to Californians, they see this difference and you can see the impact of gas prices. I mean, [3:03] take a look, difficult or financial hardship among California voters because of gas prices, [3:08] 57 percent of all voters. Then you see the rare trifecta, 63 percent of Republicans, 57 percent [3:12] of Democrats and 51 percent of independents. I think there are going to be a lot of interesting [3:17] answers tomorrow night when it comes to the cost of living in California, including gas prices. [3:21] And that's why I'm going to be tuning in to you, Kaitlin. [3:24] Good. Hopefully we do get some interesting answers to interesting questions. Harry Enten, [3:28] thanks for breaking those numbers down. And Van Jones and David Urban are back with me. Van, [3:33] you know, this race was scrambled when Eric Swalwell dropped out of it. There is no clear front [3:37] runners. You just looked at what Harry was laying out there. What are you watching for in the [3:41] Democratic candidates on stage tomorrow night? Well, this is the first time that, you know, [3:45] on a major stage, you're going to see all of them together. You know, Tom Steyer, very impressive. [3:52] I've known him for a long time, you know, big climate guy. He spent a lot of money to get his word out [3:57] there. But, you know, when you're standing on stage, you know, shoulder to shoulder with people, [4:04] you never know what's going to happen. Mahan has been coming on strong. I think he represents, [4:09] you know, a little bit more of a conservative Democrat vote. He's more of a tech guy. He's [4:16] done a great job with his state, with his city as a mayor. And so, you know, right now you got to [4:23] imagine Tom Steyer has bought his pathway to the, you know, one of the top two. The question is, [4:30] can anybody else get in there with him? But you never know. I mean, tomorrow night, [4:34] everybody needs to turn in. Something could happen that completely upset the apple cart. [4:39] And I think people in California do not know who should be leading us. [4:42] Villaraigosa, you're showing there, a great mayor in Los Angeles, very well-respected. [4:48] You know, this can go any way. Anything's possible in California right now. [4:52] Well, I mean, speaking of anything being possible, David, it has been [4:56] two decades since a Republican was last elected governor here. We've got two on stage tomorrow [5:02] night, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco. What are you going to be looking for from the Republican side? [5:09] Yeah. I don't know, Chad. I know Steve pretty well. He's, he's an impressive character. I think [5:13] he'll do extremely well, former television personality. He's going to be purpose-built [5:18] for this debate as long as you don't beat him up too badly. Listen, it's going to be interesting to [5:23] see how far they try to distance themselves from the president, right? And from this administration, [5:28] which is widely, you know, viewed I'm sure as completely unpopular anywhere in California, [5:33] maybe Orange County it's popular, but most of the state is, President Trump is viewed as being [5:39] responsible for high gas prices, the war, lack of affordability, you know, wildfires, blame, [5:45] pick something. Californians don't like Trump. And so it'll be interesting to see how Steve Hilton [5:49] gets away from that. Well, I mean, and Van on, on that note, you know, when you look at this, [5:55] there's 61 people that I think are going to be on the ballot when voters are getting them. [5:59] Obviously there's going to be seven that have qualified for our debate on stage tomorrow night, [6:03] but there are some scenarios that Democrats would not be happy about where maybe two Republicans [6:08] could, could be on the ballot come November, um, based on, on how this works, or it could be two, [6:14] two Democrats potentially on there. Well, well, I mean, this has been the panic in the party, [6:19] you know, the past two months is this fear that we're going to mess around with, you know, [6:24] too many people on the ballot, too many strong Dems on the ballot, and we cannibalize ourselves and [6:29] somehow, you know, both Republicans, you know, sneak on through. I think that's less likely now [6:33] that Swalwell is out. I think it's kind of like, you know, before you had, you know, he has the name [6:38] ID, Steyer's got the name ID, even Katie Porter, who's kind of fallen quite a bit, has a name ID. [6:44] Do you just wind up cannibalizing this party and handing it over? And I mean, [6:48] there were a lot of meetings in California. There was a lot of, you know, begging people [6:52] to drop out, that kind of thing. But listen, if you're a Villaraigosa, who's very well respected, [6:56] if you're a Mahan, who's coming on as a rising star, it's hard to tell anybody to get out, [7:02] and basically nobody did. Yeah. And a lot of them think they can still be [7:06] the candidate after Swalwell exited. David Urban, Gavin Newsom has not endorsed anyone yet in this race. [7:12] He told Mark Leibovich over at the Atlantic, he would do so only in a break glass scenario. [7:18] What happens if he does that? Yeah, again, so I spent a little bit of [7:23] time with Governor Newsom this past weekend. And I think, you know, again, there's baggage, [7:29] right? If you're, if you're Governor Newsom, you endorse somebody that may not help that person. [7:34] Van has a better view of this. He's, you know, Californian and is a Democrat. And, [7:38] you know, Gavin Newsom isn't widely loved by everybody in the state. And so, [7:42] if you get a big bear hug from Gavin Newsom, that may help you with some people and may drag you down [7:47] with others in the state. And so I think it's why, it's why he's probably sitting it out. Doesn't [7:50] want to, doesn't want to hurt the people that he might hurt and doesn't want to help others. [7:55] I see it so, I see it just somewhat differently because I think if you had the two Republicans [8:00] floating up, I think a Newsom bear hug would actually probably elevate somebody. The fact that he [8:07] doesn't have a handpicked successor is interesting at this point. But we'll see.