Enten runs all the numbers on Iran war: From Kharg to Trump

[0:00] Hey there, I'm Harry Enten, and today we're not just running the numbers on the war in Iran, [0:04] we are running all the numbers on the war in Iran, and you won't see this on television. [0:08] Let's start off by talking about two key terms that basically before this war began, [0:13] nobody was really talking about, and you might not have even heard of them. [0:16] We're talking about Karg Island and the Strait of Hormuz, of course, [0:19] very much having to do with oil that is exported by Iran. [0:23] And you can see her Google searches in March up like a rocket. [0:26] I mean, my goodness gracious, record high speeds for Karg Island. [0:29] Look at this, Google searches up over 20,000, 20,000 percent. [0:35] That's insane, versus a month ago. [0:37] And then the Strait of Hormuz up 1,900 percent versus a month ago. [0:41] Again, record highs in Google dating all the way back since 2004. [0:45] So if you hadn't heard of either Karg Island or the Strait of Hormuz before the war in Iran, [0:50] guess what? You were not alone. [0:52] Now, I mentioned, of course, oil. [0:54] That is why we're talking about Karg Island and the Strait of Hormuz, [0:57] and we're talking about gas prices here. [0:59] We're talking about gas prices in the United States, [1:02] and we are talking about increases that, frankly, [1:05] we have never seen, at least over the last 35 years. [1:08] Take a look here at gas prices. [1:10] Okay, now, right now, the largest four-week gas price increase since at least 1991. [1:17] You have to go all the way back since the Bills played in their first Super Bowl [1:22] to find increases this high. [1:23] We're talking about up 33 percent, up 33 percent just over the last four weeks. [1:29] In fact, I went back through the record books. [1:32] We're talking about an increase of a dollar over just a four-week period for the first time ever. [1:38] The first time ever. [1:40] That is why the Strait of Hormuz and Karg Island are so important, [1:44] because essentially what has gone on, of course, is that the Strait of Hormuz has closed, [1:48] and it has choked off, choked off the oil supply that is heading out of Iran. [1:53] And that, of course, has driven up gas prices here in the United States of America. [1:57] But that is not all that's been going on. [1:59] Take a look here. [2:00] This, I think, really sort of gives the game away. [2:02] Look at this. [2:03] Economic measures since the Iran war began. [2:06] Well, we spoke about gas prices, right, being up 33 percent. [2:10] But look at the Dow Jones. [2:12] Down it goes through the floor. [2:14] We're talking about down 8 percent, down 8 percent since the war in Iran began. [2:19] And guess what? [2:20] That means, along with the downflow that we saw earlier on, just before the Iran war started, [2:26] that the Dow Jones has actually entered correction territory. [2:30] It's entered correction territory. [2:32] So, oil prices climb ever higher, but the rest of the economy has been suffering. [2:37] It has been suffering because of the war in Iran. [2:40] Of course, we had all those years, right, all those years in which the stock market had been climbing, climbing, climbing. [2:47] But basically, what we've seen over the last month and change is that stocks are finally entering correction territory, [2:54] which, if you have a 401 , like myself, that's not exactly welcome news. [2:59] Of course, [3:00] if you own oil, it's actually quite welcome news that you've seen gas prices go up and oil prices climb ever higher. [3:06] Now, of course, one of the key things that folks have spoken about, right, that we've been hearing about, [3:13] is potentially ground troops entering Iran, specifically Karg Island, because of these gas prices climbing higher. [3:21] Well, that is not something that the American people want at all. [3:26] I mean, you rarely see polling data like this. [3:29] I mean, just take a look. [3:30] Okay, this is a recent AP Newark poll. [3:32] U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, look at this, we're talking about 12, 12%. [3:38] That is less than a bar mitzvah, less than a bar mitzvah support at 12%. [3:43] Of course, if you don't know, you get your bar mitzvah at age 13. [3:45] I had mine. [3:47] It was an interesting experience. [3:48] But look at this, we're talking about three in five, three in five Americans already oppose ground troops in Iran and even among Republicans, [3:58] even among Republicans who stick through it. [4:00] They stick through it with Donald Trump through thick and thin. [4:03] Just a fifth, just a fifth of Republicans right now support ground troops in Iran, about half oppose. [4:10] So, even among Donald Trump's base, we see real opposition, real opposition to troops on the ground in Iran, [4:18] even in places like Karg Island, to help open up that oil supply chain, right? [4:23] So, this might make you ask the question, it obviously makes me beg the question, [4:29] how has this war had an impact on the country? [4:31] how has this war had an impact on the country? [4:31] impact on Donald Trump, and how are Americans viewing Donald Trump on the war in Iran? [4:37] It ain't good, folks. [4:38] It ain't good. [4:39] I mean, look at these numbers, and I want you to take a look. [4:41] We have a comparison point here. [4:43] Warnet approval rating a month in. [4:45] The Iraq war, of course, that was George W. Bush. [4:47] We're talking about April in 2003, and we're talking about the Iran war now with Donald [4:51] Trump. [4:52] Look at this. [4:53] Look how popular Bush was when it came to the war in Iran a month in. [4:57] Now, of course, the war in Iraq, excuse me, not the war in Iran. [5:00] The war in Iraq a month in. [5:02] Look, his approval rating on the war would go way down, but his net approval rating a [5:06] month in, look at this. [5:07] It was plus 56 points. [5:10] Plus 56 points with his net approval rating. [5:13] It gave him a real boost in his approval rating. [5:15] There really was a rally around the flag event for George W. Bush back in 2003. [5:21] Compare that to Donald Trump. [5:22] This is just, this isn't on another planet, folks. [5:25] This is an entirely other different galaxy. [5:28] I mean, look at this. [5:30] He's 28 points underwater, underwater. [5:33] He's down there with the Titanic Donald Trump is when it comes to how people view him when [5:38] it comes to the war in Iran, while George W. Bush was up there in the clouds, up there [5:42] in the clouds when it came to the war in Iraq. [5:44] So this is just not a good starting place for Donald Trump, even a month in. [5:49] And of course, this is having a big impact, or at least a negative impact, on Donald Trump's [5:56] overall popularity. [5:57] Because, take a look here. [5:59] Take a look at Donald Trump's overall net approval rating. [6:02] This is the lowest of his term, the lowest of his second term. [6:05] We're talking about minus 17 points, 17 points underwater. [6:10] And unlike in Donald Trump's first term, in which he was negative basically throughout [6:15] his entire term, Trump actually started off in positive territory here in his second term. [6:19] But now he's at the lowest point of his second term. [6:23] But there's an even bigger comparison to be made. [6:26] Okay? [6:27] So obviously, Trump was elected once back in 2016. [6:29] Then he took a four-year break. [6:32] And then, of course, he's serving his second term, and it's his second presidency. [6:36] So I went back and I looked at all of the presidents at this point in a presidency. [6:41] All of them. [6:42] All of them at this point in a presidency. [6:43] And guess what? [6:44] Donald Trump is the lowest ever, the lowest ever at this point in a presidency. [6:50] Lower than Joe Biden. [6:52] Lower than Jimmy Carter. [6:54] Lower than Ronald Reagan. [6:55] He's lower than all of them. [6:57] All of them. [6:58] All of them. [6:59] And he's the lowest ever at this point in a presidency. [7:01] You can make any sort of swimming comparison you want. [7:04] Maybe you want to make a comparison with a diver like Greg Louganis. [7:08] Maybe you want to make a swimming comparison, Michael Phelps. [7:12] Maybe if you're me, like an old Jewish soul, you want to make a comparison with Mark Spitz. [7:16] Either way, he is very much down there. [7:20] Now, of course, this may in fact be having an impact on the midterm elections. [7:25] Right? [7:26] Donald Trump is not on the ballot come November. [7:29] Right? [7:29] There's a two-term limit here in the United States of America, so he can't be reelected [7:34] to a third term come 2028, unless, of course, the Constitution gets changed. [7:38] But we do have a midterm election coming up in November. [7:41] And this shows that at least those who are putting their money where their mouth is see [7:46] that the Republicans' chances of holding onto the Senate, they have gone down. [7:50] What is occurring in the White House, those who are putting their money where their mouth [7:53] is don't expect it to stay in the White House. [7:55] They expect it to spread out across the electoral map. [7:58] Chance the GOP wins the Senate. [7:59] The top of the spielen for the Senate in 2026. [8:03] Pre-Iran war, look at this. [8:05] It was at 59 percent, was it 59 percent? [8:07] About three and five. [8:09] Now, what you see is it's basically a 50-50 split when it comes to the United States Senate. [8:14] Republicans, maybe if you want to use the word slightly favored, I really consider this [8:18] dead heat territory. [8:20] We're talking about a 52 percent chance, which of course is amazing, given the electoral [8:25] map, in which Republicans really are playing on a good playing field for them. [8:29] if this were a neutral year, maybe Maine, [8:32] maybe North Carolina. [8:33] But if you look at some of the individual markets, [8:35] you've seen some real movement towards the Democrats [8:37] away from the Republicans in states like Alaska, [8:40] states like Ohio, places that Donald Trump won [8:43] by double digits back in 2024. [8:46] But now it looks like Democrats have a real shot. [8:50] Of course, the war in Iran is not just having implications [8:54] here in the United States. [8:55] Of course, it is really something that impacts [8:58] the world at large. [8:59] And let's take a look at some how some of the US allies [9:02] are viewing this war and they, [9:04] most of them do not view it favorably. [9:08] What are we talking about? [9:09] Just take a look here. [9:10] I mean, look at this. [9:11] Net approval rating, US military action in Iran, [9:14] Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom. [9:17] Look at these numbers, look at these net approval ratings. [9:21] They are all under 30 points, [9:23] at least 30 points underwater. [9:25] The UK, 34 points underwater. [9:27] Japan, [9:28] Japan, 73 points. [9:30] What do you ever see anything that's 73 points underwater? [9:33] I guess maybe stealing candy from a baby, [9:35] but this is just absolutely atrocious. [9:37] How about in Canada? [9:39] 38 points underwater. [9:41] These of course are key US allies and none of them, [9:45] none of the people, very few of the people in these countries [9:48] actually like what's going on. [9:49] And if you were gonna make a comparison [9:51] to the war in Iraq, of course, I can't believe it. [9:55] I'm counting up the years in my head. [9:56] It's 23 years ago at this point. [9:58] My God, you could have a kid, [9:59] a kid who could already vote, drive a car, smoke, [10:02] have alcohol legally. [10:04] But 20 years, 23 years ago, in each of these countries, [10:07] the war in Iraq was considerably, considerably more popular [10:11] than this war in Iran is right now. [10:13] And that is a key reason why you're not really seeing [10:15] any of these countries really willing to help out [10:18] when it comes to the war in Iran. [10:20] But there is one place where the war in Iran is popular [10:26] and that is Israel. [10:27] Take a look here. [10:28] I mean, just take a look at the comparison here. [10:30] Israelis, satisfied with the war in Iran results, [10:33] the achievements that are going on. [10:35] Israel is a rare country where you see the majority [10:37] of the country's population at least seeing the results [10:41] so far favorably, seeing the achievements so far favorably. [10:43] Look at this, 66% of Israelis, [10:46] at least according to a Channel 12 poll [10:48] over there in Israel, said that they were satisfied [10:50] with the Iran war's results, the achievements so far. [10:54] And you might say, okay, you know, Bibi Netanyahu, [10:58] they are right, Bibi Netanyahu, [10:59] many people worldwide don't like, [11:01] but even among Bibi Netanyahu's opponents, [11:04] those, the opposition to Bibi Netanyahu [11:06] wanna vote for another party. [11:08] Look at this, those who oppose Bibi Netanyahu, [11:10] even there, even there you see the majority right now, [11:15] satisfied with the war in Iran, [11:18] the war in Iran results so far, the achievements going on. [11:21] So Israel kind of on an island of its own [11:24] in terms of how the war is being viewed much more popularly [11:28] in Israel than it is in Israel. [11:29] That is here in the United States [11:30] and certainly in places like the UK, Japan, and Canada. [11:35] We'll see if there are any electoral implications [11:37] down the line in Israel. [11:38] Obviously we have a midterm election coming up [11:40] in the States where I do think there could be implications [11:42] if in fact the war in Iran drags on ever further. [11:45] So this was me running all the numbers this week [11:49] on the war in Iran. [11:50] I hope you enjoyed it, [11:50] but I wanna make sure that going forward, [11:54] what should we dig into next year? [11:55] What should we dig into next? [11:57] Drop it in the comments section. [11:59] I'll take a look and we'll see if we're able to meet again.