Enten on WI, GA elections: Dems’ best Trump-era results since 2017

[0:00] these results tell a pretty serious story in wisconsin big shifts toward the democratic party [0:05] holy toledo holy smokes holy cow what are we talking about here i mean look at these shifts [0:12] okay and i want to put this in terms of historical perspective for you dems liberal exceeding the [0:17] previous presidential vote so in 2025 2026 cycle we're talking about exceeding kamala harris look [0:23] at this we're talking about exceeding kamala harris the liberal candidate did by 21 points [0:29] 21 points and this is part of a pattern right in virginia governor we saw the democrat there [0:33] exceeding kamala harris by 10. new jersey governor by 8. and this is even better even better than what [0:40] democrats had back in the 2017-2018 cycles where they were exceeding hillary clinton's baseline but [0:46] by 12 4 and less than a point so this time around oh my goodness gracious holy cow holy smokes holy [0:54] toledo and of course remember democrats took the house in 2018 and i will note that wisconsin supreme [0:58] court performance last night by chris taylor was the best for a liberal candidate in an open seat [1:03] and at least at least 30 years so this was the race that we saw last night in wisconsin wisconsin [1:08] supreme court seat a nine point swing there what about georgia in perspective that was a special [1:14] election for marjorie taylor green's house seat put that in perspective yeah you think a 21 point [1:18] over performance versus the kamala harris baseline is impressive that ain't got nothing on what happened in [1:23] georgia look at this okay again putting this in perspective 2025 2026 u.s house special elections [1:30] how much did the democrats outrun kamala harris's baseline from 2024 look at this in georgia 14 25 [1:37] percentage points my goodness gracious that beat all the other demo performances and they've over [1:42] performed in all of them so we're even getting higher than the highest of heights we're talking 13 in [1:48] tennessee 7 17 in arizona 7 17 virginia 11 16 in florida 6 23 in florida 1 and all of a sudden we're [1:55] talking 25 points the biggest dem over performance in a special congressional election since 2017 when [2:03] doug jones won that alabama special senate election yeah and i gotta say some of the county data in [2:07] georgia and wisconsin that we saw overnight even better for democrats in some key places they're looking [2:11] for here harry we've talked about this before this is i don't like to recycle old things as you know i like [2:16] new but this is super important what does special elections what do they tell us about outcomes in [2:21] midterms yeah i've used this slide before but i'm going to recycle it because i'm going to give it [2:25] extra special energy this morning to make it brand new for you brand new slide okay special elections [2:30] and midterm results when a party outperforms in special elections why are we looking at these [2:35] specials it's because five out of five times since the 2005-2006 cycle that party went on to win [2:40] the u.s house of representatives and mr berman i will note the calcium prediction markets [2:45] really are taking these results and saying oh my goodness gracious because look at this [2:49] chance democrats win in 2026 both the house and senate on january 1 it was 29 percent up like a [2:55] rocket now 51 percent that democrats don't just win the house but win the senate as well yeah that's [3:01] the both thing right there having a more than 50 chance to include the senate also would be big [3:06] for democrats harriet and thank you very much for that holy smokes folks democrats may have lost the [3:11] georgia 14 special election for marjorie taylor green's old seat last night but they had one of [3:17] their best performances at the polls since president trump took office for his second term in a special [3:22] election now last night republican clayton fuller did win he got over 55 of the vote defeating [3:29] democrat sean harris who got 44 of the vote it's a difference of 12 percentage points again that might [3:35] not sound like a reason for democrats to celebrate but if you compare it to how president trump performed [3:40] in this solidly red district in 2024 he won by 37 percentage points that was the biggest swing to [3:48] the left since 2025 and it's part of an emerging trend for democrats heading into november's midterms [3:56] david chalian yeah so you see there he the democrat was able to shave away two-thirds of that trump [4:05] margin from 2024 and as you noted that is the best democratic overperformance as we call it in a [4:11] congressional special election since donald trump has taken office again um but it is the pattern [4:17] that we've seen in every special election uh since donald trump has taken obviously there's no denying [4:25] that that is a good sign for democrats they're motivated it is also true that we are seeing in [4:30] these elections in the trump 2.0 error some actual movement of previous trump voters i mean we saw this in [4:37] the new jersey and virginia gubernatorial races with mikey sheryl and abigail spamberger's victories they [4:41] didn't just have a motivated democratic base they were also peeling away some people that had voted [4:45] for donald trump um so there are all the warning signs for the republicans that being said november [4:52] is going to be a different electorate than shows up in special elections that's important to say [4:56] and i would say that there are two things in the republican toolkit still um one is an overwhelming [5:02] financial advantage so when you're thinking about the midterms and again it's going to be a good year [5:06] for democrats i imagine um that that is one piece that hasn't come about yet like donald trump the [5:11] president has do you have the number yeah 500 million dollars in his war chest that has not [5:16] been spent exactly that has not been spent yet so we have to see how the trump political team is going [5:20] to deploy that as voters focus in on the midterms and how they are hoping that is going to help [5:24] mitigate some of this and the other thing is the map itself obviously in house districts we're very [5:29] gerrymandered the battle for the senate is taking place in in red states that being said as i think we're [5:35] seeing in places like ruby red georgia the map is also changing a bit here with the tide and the [5:41] map is not as fortified for republicans perhaps as as they thought going into the cycle and david was [5:47] talking about the trend in these special elections yesterday on election day we had a list of the [5:54] trend and showed the way that the margins for republicans are shrinking and for democrats are expanding [6:01] now we put the new uh one from yesterday in georgia up there and you can see it even more starkly um [6:07] from 37 percentage points in 2024 to just 12 in this election yesterday and how that shows the trend [6:15] right there on the screen certainly warning signs for the republican party and warning signs that the [6:19] people around trump are well aware of so we've heard for months now that the president's top aides have [6:26] been really pushing him to be out on the campaign trail more because one of the trump administration's [6:31] core concerns is that a lot of the voters who voted for trump are not going to show up and that's been [6:38] a struggle for the republican party is that you have this figurehead who has been able to get voters who [6:44] don't really vote otherwise in the presidential election the question that the administration has is [6:50] how can we now get them to vote for other republicans and so you're seeing them sort of talk internally [6:56] about that but i still think the president needs a little bit of convincing and one thing that i [7:01] really that really stands out to me when the president talks about this topic we've heard him a few times [7:07] kind of lament about how anytime there is a president in office whether it's republican or democrat they [7:12] usually have a bad midterms and to me i wonder if he's almost a little bit resigned of the fact that maybe [7:18] this will be a tough year for republicans