Electioncast: What’s Happening in Scotland? — BBC Newscast

[0:00] Hello, it's Adam in the newscast slash election cast studio. [0:04] Hello, it's James in Glasgow. [0:06] Hello, it's Alex in her makeshift home election cast studio. [0:10] And as always, we're joined by Luke Trill, pollster and boss of More in Common. [0:13] Hello. [0:14] Great to be here. [0:15] And you've got your own podcast now, haven't you? [0:17] We do, the opinion brief. [0:18] Right, okay. [0:18] That's the advertising out of the way. [0:21] Will you be reading adverts in your podcast like the American podcasters do? [0:25] I'd actually really like to do that. [0:27] Talk about like AI chatbots and mattresses and things. [0:29] I haven't thought of that, crypto or something like that. [0:31] Yeah, crypto, yes. [0:31] That's where we should be getting it. [0:33] So this week we're going to focus on the Scottish Parliament because we spent a lot of time talking about the Welsh Senate last week. [0:38] But I'm sure all sorts of wires will cross in this episode anyway. [0:42] Luke, you've done a voting intention poll. [0:45] Before we dig into any kind of numbers and any trends, are there some things we need to think about when we look at any poll to do with the Scottish Parliament? [0:52] Well, yes. [0:53] So one of the things to remember about Scotland is that they used what's called a mixed electoral system. [0:59] So last week we talked about the Welsh voting system, which is a PR system, constituencies of six. [1:08] As the name implies, in Scotland it's a mixed system. [1:11] So the bulk of seats are first past the post seat. [1:15] So as you would expect in a Westminster election, you cast your vote, the party that gets the most vote wins the seat. [1:21] So they've then got a number of what are sometimes called top-up seats on top of that. [1:26] So you get a second vote for your region. [1:29] So, for instance, like Glasgow is one of the regions. [1:34] And what that is designed to do is designed to sort of iron out some of the quirks of first past the post, where one party can win lots of seats on a relatively small share of the vote. [1:45] It compensates parties who've missed out on those seats. [1:49] So two electoral systems sort of working in one to produce this kind of semi-proportional system. [1:56] And James, you actually see that some of the parties have been quite explicit when they're talking to their potential voters, saying, oh, vote for us on this ballot paper because this is where we will do better. [2:05] Yes, so particularly some of the smaller parties stressing the importance of that second vote because they know they're unlikely to win in a constituency. [2:13] And so they are trying to encourage you to vote for them on the second vote in the regional list, as it's called. [2:22] And it's called a list because the parties decide, they submit a list of candidates and you vote for the party and then they go to that list. [2:31] And if you get enough, you get the first person on your list. [2:33] And if you, after a lot of complicated calculations, get enough for another seat on the list, you get the second person on the list and so on. [2:39] So being at the top of that list is really important. [2:42] You've been doing lots of the news bit this week. [2:44] For example, on Sunday night, I saw on the 10 o'clock news, a lovely lineup of Rita wearing a big coat. [2:51] You're wearing a natty scarf and Chris Mason, as usual, not wearing any weather appropriate clothing. [2:56] You stood outside a building in Paisley to the west of Glasgow because it had been the BBC leaders debate. [3:01] What were the big stories that emerged from that? [3:03] Well, a beautifully refurbished town hall in Paisley. [3:06] The one thing that I have to tell you is that I couldn't hear very well. [3:12] So I'm not necessarily the best person to ask. [3:14] No, I was sitting on the balcony and the acoustic up there was quite poor. [3:20] But it was. [3:21] That was just the media. [3:23] We don't matter. [3:23] We were just sitting observing. [3:24] The people who needed to hear the debate could hear it. [3:26] I thought what was striking, Adam, is there was a lot of pressure on John Swinney. [3:32] The SNP have been in power in Scotland for 19 years, as we were saying on another episode of Newscast. [3:38] And newscasters might remember the SNP entered government before the first iPhone went on sale. [3:44] That's how long we're talking about here. [3:46] There was a lot of pressure on him. [3:48] Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, you know, locking horns with John Swinney quite a lot. [3:54] I thought Malcolm Offord of Reform UK, who some people thought would make a big splash, [4:00] was maybe a little bit quieter than you might have anticipated. [4:03] Ross Greer of the Scottish Greens was thought to have done pretty well. [4:07] It has to be said, Anas Sarwar skipped out as well, looking absolutely delighted with his performance. [4:13] And also Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Conservatives there as well. [4:17] A lot of feeling in the room of concern about the direction of travel, [4:22] and particularly about the cost of living. [4:25] A lot of worries about the world. [4:27] I mean, it's not a country that's in a particularly good mood, I think was my main takeaway. [4:31] And the last thing, Adam, that is really striking, all men in suits on the stage. [4:37] You know, we've gone from a position where we had quite a few female leaders of Scottish parties. [4:42] We had Ruth Davidson of the Conservatives. [4:45] We had Kezia Dugdale for Labour. [4:46] We obviously had Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister. [4:48] So we've gone from that to this all-male line-up again. [4:52] Albeit, it should be said, the Greens have a co-leadership position. [4:55] So that's shared between Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay. [4:58] And she appeared on this Channel 4 leaders debate, which we might get on to. [5:02] My takeaway from watching the debate, which I watched on iPlayer on my sofa at home, which is quite unusual for me, because normally I'd be in a spin room or in the studio watching it with a notepad and thinking about sort of reporting on it in slightly more real time, as opposed to catching up on it the next day. [5:19] For me, watching it as a viewer at home, like kind of a goggle box, was it was very, it was thematic, James. [5:27] Like they didn't get into very detailed arguments about what people's positions or policies or pros and cons of what people were proposing was. [5:34] It was quite, sort of felt like the same argument for every section. [5:40] Yeah, I think that's fair. [5:41] And I suppose part of the reason for that, it might have been that we were halfway through the publication of manifestos at that point. [5:48] So it's quite difficult to say, you know, to the SNP who hadn't published their manifesto until today at that debate, we expect you right now to set out precisely all of your policies. [6:00] I mean, I suppose that's just the nature of going first with these debates. [6:03] There's been another one since then, and there'll be another one later, an STV, Scottish television one later in the campaign. [6:09] Maybe that'll get into more of the details. [6:11] But I think you're right. [6:12] I think it was thematic. [6:13] Also, the other problem, I mean, I say problem, that's really unfair. [6:16] It's a democracy, you know. [6:18] But the other effect of having six people on the stage is that it is difficult to get into a great deal of detail at all on anything. [6:26] Yeah. [6:27] Alex, of course, you host a debate every single week around the UK on any questions, [6:32] rather than just at election time. [6:34] But you had an episode in Scotland. [6:37] Yeah, we were in Edinburgh, actually, for the programme last week, which was really interesting, [6:40] because like you say, we just do the programme every week regardless. [6:43] And then when it comes down to this time of year, when you've got elections going on, [6:46] you find yourself in the middle, particularly in Scotland, of a really kind of fiercely fought election campaign. [6:52] And that's because I think for this Scottish election, there does feel like there is quite a lot at stake. [6:57] And I think that's where you get to kind of the politics of it all. [7:01] So it's interesting, because when we were talking about the election that's taking place in Wales, [7:04] and of course, there are elections in England as well, we've mentioned how there are kind of echoes or themes, [7:10] as you put it, Adam, or issues that just keep cropping up again and again, no matter where you are in the country. [7:16] So it is things like the cost of living, it is the NHS and the state of public services, it is immigration, [7:21] even though in Scotland, for example, that's an issue that's reserved to Westminster, [7:24] it's still an issue that voters are talking about, it is that kind of sense of the state of the world. [7:29] So they're the things that people care about. [7:30] And then where the politics comes in, it's about who is persuading or convincing people [7:35] that they've got the answers to those particular issues. [7:38] And I think in Scotland right now, if you just think about it politically, [7:41] as James said, the SNP has been in power in Scotland for a long time. [7:47] So they are now the ones in Scotland who are voting the incumbency factor in Scotland. [7:51] But then you've got Labour, who were not so long ago, widely deemed politically to be [7:57] in with a good chance of ousting the SNP from power. [8:01] Now, since the general election, they're in a situation where they are fighting the incumbency [8:06] factor in Westminster, and then still trying to deliver a message of change [8:11] for Scotland. [8:12] So that's kind of shifted things on its head a bit and made the politics fascinating. [8:17] And at the same time, where we've seen what some people call the insurgency of Reform UK, [8:22] that is having an impact in this Scottish election as well. [8:25] And that's before we get to the other three parties who are standing there, [8:27] the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and of course, the Conservatives. [8:31] So it is a really fascinating battle. [8:33] And even though we were doing our regular Any Questions programme, [8:36] was there any lots of politics in that programme? [8:38] Did you know you're in the middle of an election campaign? [8:41] Absolutely, you did. [8:42] And just look on this cost of living point, which is at the top of every survey of what [8:47] people care about the most everywhere in the UK at the moment. [8:50] Are there ways of thinking about what the cost of living is actually as an issue? [8:54] Because I think we just assume it's things being expensive. [8:57] But there's more to it than that, isn't there? [9:00] There is. [9:01] It's a sense that, you know, whenever we chat to people in all of our Scottish focus groups, [9:05] it's the first issue that comes up, so the constitutional question or anything like that. [9:11] It is this sense that people are going backwards, that progress that people thought they made [9:17] hasn't been made. [9:19] You know, I had one person in the focus group who said, you know, [9:21] I actually earn more than both of my parents earn put together, and yet I'm not going to be able [9:27] to get on the housing ladder. [9:28] So yes, it's things like the weekly shop, the price of energy, they're the immediate things. [9:32] But there's this deeper sense that it is too hard in Britain at the moment, across England, [9:39] Scotland and Wales, to live a good life. [9:41] And I think it's that deeper sense of a broken social contract almost. [9:45] I would go that far, the cost of living crisis. [9:48] I think that's what it makes people think. [9:49] That is driving people towards these newer insurgent parties, you put it in particular, Reform UK. [9:59] Because what's really striking, you know, if you look at some of our polling in Scotland, [10:07] not the party polling, but if you ask people in Scotland, [10:11] do you think in Scotland it's time for change, or should we stick with the plan? [10:16] 70%, over 70%, 73% of Scots say it's time for change. [10:21] So that time for change mood that is driving reform and the Greens in England [10:26] is happening in Scotland as well. [10:29] And in any normal circumstance, 70% of a country saying it's time for change [10:35] would be an electoral death knell for the incumbent government. [10:39] But of course, in Scotland, you've got a tale of two unpopular. [10:44] You know, last week in Wales, we talked about the double incumbency. [10:48] Here, you've got warring incumbency playing out. [10:50] You've got Labour in Westminster, SNP in Scotland. [10:53] And so it's not quite clear who is the change from. [10:56] Although it's interesting, though, that when you talk about focus groups wanting a big change, [11:01] just sort of like kind of a structural thing, we'd maybe call it. [11:04] Actually, James, when you look at the manifestos of the various parties, [11:07] and we've got all of them in Scotland now, apart from the Scottish Liberal Democrats, [11:10] the cost of living measures are quite kind of retailish things, [11:14] like your classic things, like cheaper bus fares or tax cuts for middle earners, [11:22] or I know it's the SNP are saying they would put a law in place [11:26] to limit the price of certain things in the shops. [11:30] Yeah, that's right. [11:31] I mean, I've got a pile of the manifestos here that we've had so far. [11:36] As you say, we've not got all of them, but we've got, [11:38] I'm just waiving them for those who might be watching rather than listening to this. [11:41] A big pile of manifestos. [11:43] Like an audio drama. [11:45] Or an ASMR video. [11:49] Anyway, sorry, I interrupt. [11:50] Anyway, sorry, I digress. [11:52] We have these manifestos. [11:54] As you say, yeah, there's a lot of what you call retail politics, isn't it? [11:58] I mean, obviously, no one's writing a manifesto and not thinking straight away, [12:02] well, Luke and his pollster colleagues are telling them [12:06] that cost of living is the one thing people are screaming about. [12:09] And even if they didn't look at a single poll, they know that [12:11] because every single candidate I've spoken to, [12:13] and I've spoken to quite a few in the last few weeks, [12:15] have said every door we knock on, it's cost of living, cost of living, cost of living. [12:19] And then, you know, then you have a question, Luke, [12:21] as you're rightly saying, you know, change from what? [12:24] You know, the SNP are saying, well, it's changed from what they call broken Brexit Britain. [12:28] It's changed from the establishment. [12:30] Independence, they would say, is the change Scotland needs. [12:32] The Greens would agree with that. [12:34] Conservatives and reforms say, no, the change we need is to lower the tax space, [12:38] to take the boot of the state off the necks of people, [12:42] to reduce welfare spending, to generate growth. [12:45] Everyone, apart from the Greens, talk about the importance of generating growth. [12:50] And so you have a big argument about that. [12:52] But as you say, to come back to your question, Adam, [12:55] yeah, you've got these ideas about how can we, [12:59] where can the Scottish government intervene? [13:01] How much power does it have? [13:02] And actually on the last one you mentioned in terms of putting a ceiling on prices [13:10] for staples such as bread, milk and eggs, not all of them, to be clear. [13:15] The proposal would be that major supermarkets would have to stock at least one of those items [13:22] at a certain low price. [13:25] There was a lot of discussion in the questions from the media the SNP launched today. [13:29] And my colleague from the Times next to me reading out Aldi's website [13:33] and a list of prices saying it's 55p for a pint of milk. [13:37] What do you think a price of a pint of milk should be? [13:39] And John Swinney declining to answer. [13:41] But that gives you a sense of where these arguments are going to go. [13:44] Is this practical? Is this desirable? Is it achievable? [13:47] And there's an argument about governments intervening in the free markets. [13:51] John Swinney says he can do it on the basis of public health grounds. [13:55] They tried to do that previously over introducing a minimum unit price for alcohol [13:59] and they got there in the end. [14:01] But as my colleague, Glenn Campbell, the Scotland political editor pointed out, [14:03] it took five years. [14:04] Yeah. Alex, I know that you've been doing a lot of thinking about energy, [14:08] which of course is a huge issue because of the oil and gas industry in the North Sea. [14:12] Yeah, well, it's particularly acute in Scotland and in this Scottish election campaign, [14:15] I think for exactly that reason. [14:17] I mean, it's an issue that everybody's talking about at the moment [14:18] because of course the war in Iran and the impact that that's had [14:21] on international shipping lanes with all of the knock-on effect that then that has [14:24] on energy prices across the board. [14:26] So it's something that applies everywhere, but it is acute in Scotland [14:29] because of North Sea oil and gas. [14:32] And there is this huge active debate at the moment about really, I think, [14:35] I mean, you can very bluntly characterise it into two schools of thought, [14:39] which are the parties that advocate for the kind of drill baby drill approach, [14:43] which is maximise the oil and gas you can get out of the North Sea [14:47] while you can get it because it is a finite resource. [14:51] And then there are other parties who say that's completely the wrong approach [14:54] and what you need to be doing is focusing on renewables. [14:58] And that is an argument that's playing out right across Great Britain [15:00] through these election campaigns. [15:01] But there's the added element in Scotland, of course, that the industry, [15:05] the jobs are in Scotland as well that could or might be directly affected [15:08] by whatever direction people choose to go in on this. [15:12] And then you've got a couple of really pertinent issues. [15:14] So there are two oil and gas fields, one oil, one gas, Rosebank and Jackdaw, [15:18] which at the moment there's a pending decision about whether they should be [15:22] granted licences to get the oil and gas from those specific fields, [15:25] which at the moment is currently sitting on the desk of the Energy Secretary. [15:29] So it's a sort of, that's like a real tangible example of what direction [15:33] politicians, parties think that the country should go in, [15:38] like should you drill, should you maximise Jackdaw and Rosebank, [15:41] those two fields and the parties take a different position on it for various [15:44] reasons, but it just feels like it's got a very real impact in Scotland [15:47] for those reasons. [15:49] And not just the oil and gas industry, of course, [15:51] but there are parties that would argue the other side, [15:53] what about the renewables industry, which is huge in Scotland as well, [15:56] you know, and actually, is it right? [15:59] Where should the focus be? [16:00] Is it just feels like it's so pertinent as part of this specific election campaign? [16:05] And Adam, just really quickly to add to that, [16:07] I mean, as Alex has ever set out beautifully, but the Scottish Greens, [16:12] of course, being the primary, you know, party who are charging for a complete end [16:18] as quickly as possible to drilling in the North Sea. [16:21] But when Alex talks about differences between the parties, there's also, [16:24] as you know, differences within the parties. [16:27] And the strikingly in the SNP, a difference between the position of the former [16:32] First Minister Hamza Youssef and Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister before him, [16:36] and the position now of John Swinney. [16:38] John Swinney's not explicitly said that Rosebank and Jackdaw should be approved, [16:42] but the implication is that that's what he expects, because he said, [16:45] if they can meet these climate compatibility assessments, [16:48] then Fields should be allowed to go ahead. [16:50] But that is a shift away from the SNP's previous position, [16:53] which was a presumption against more drilling. [16:56] And just a really quick afterthought on Labour as well. [16:58] There's a slight difference because Anna Sawa, who is the Scottish Labour leader, [17:01] thinks that they should be approved. [17:03] And that decision is currently sitting with Ed Miliband, [17:05] who is the Labour Energy Secretary for the UK. [17:08] So yeah, there isn't, even as James says, consensus within the parties, [17:11] but it feels like it's a very active debate. [17:13] It definitely is. [17:14] And Luke, there's been a sort of like 700-year-long conversation [17:17] about whether Scotland is more left-wing than other bits of the UK. [17:20] But it is interesting watching the Scottish election campaign unfold. [17:24] You do hear more mentions of climate change, for example, [17:27] in the debate around energy than you maybe would do in England at the moment. [17:32] I'm sort of generalising here, but it's just a sort of feel. [17:34] And also the conversation about immigration, [17:37] because Scotland is on the whole more pro-immigration than England is, [17:41] people do talk about that issue in a slightly different way as well. [17:44] Yeah, absolutely. [17:45] And it's also the case that it's not just that people tend to be slightly more pro-immigration [17:50] in Scotland, that comes through in both polling and focus groups. [17:53] It's also a lower salience issue. [17:56] So people, when we ask people their top issues, I mean, I should say, you know, [17:59] it's still levels of immigration are in third, asylum seekers crossing the channel is in fourth, [18:04] so it's still up there. [18:05] But the percentages are lower than they are in England and Wales. [18:10] It just, you know, people are less likely to prioritise it as an issue. [18:14] Climate and the environment, that's on 15% of Scots select that as one of their top three issues. [18:19] So, you know, that's about comparable with the rest of England. [18:22] But again, I guess there is this sort of... [18:25] Oh, so actually that's just a feel I'm getting from what the parties are saying, [18:29] as opposed to definitive proof that Scottish voters think differently from English or Welsh voters. [18:35] I think that might be the case. [18:37] And interestingly, when we did, you've heard of those MRP projections, [18:44] where you look at individual seats and what they think about things. [18:46] And this wasn't on voting intention, this was about concern about climate change. [18:51] And actually, the seat with the lowest concern about climate change in the whole of the UK was in Scotland, actually. [18:58] I believe it was a Dundee seat, or I'll have to double check that. [19:03] So, yes, sometimes this can become a little bit of a myth, [19:07] but certainly on the immigration question, there there is much more of a difference between England and Scotland. [19:13] And James, just give us a sort of temperature check on where the constitutional conversation is at this point in the campaign. [19:19] I mean, I think what Luke's talking about there feeds into that, [19:22] because if we take a little step back, and newscasters will perhaps remember that last year, [19:27] we really had what you might call a battle of the flags in Scotland. [19:30] There were various protests against immigration outside, in some cases, hotels hosting asylum seekers. [19:38] And there have been various marches in favour of independence. [19:41] For a long time, waving the blue and white saltire and the cross of St Andrew [19:46] has been associated in Scotland with support for Scottish independence. [19:51] Some people have always contested that and saying, [19:53] well, it's my flag as much as it is anybody else's, [19:55] even if they were to say that they supported the union. [19:57] Nonetheless, it's been very much associated with that cause. [20:03] What we saw in the last year were these protests outside asylum hotels, [20:07] and you would see a union flag. [20:09] You would also quite often see saltires. [20:11] They were put up on lampposts. [20:13] We saw the St George's Cross going up on lampposts in England, also the union flag. [20:17] There's a lot of confusion about who means what when they're waving these symbols around. [20:21] But the point being that there are competing nationalisms. [20:23] Nationalisms. They're not all competing, but there are different nationalisms in these islands. [20:29] And when we talk about Scottish nationalism and the debate about Scottish independence, [20:34] and polls will suggest it's pretty much split down the middle. [20:36] If there were a referendum tomorrow, there's not going to be a referendum tomorrow, [20:40] and that's an important caveat. [20:41] But if there were, it would be perhaps a very narrow victory for Scotland leaving the UK. [20:47] But there are also other versions of nationalism that other parties have tapped into. [20:52] The Conservatives and Unionist Party, the clue is in their name. [20:55] Reform UK in many respects have tapped into a feeling of English nationalism, [20:59] and perhaps increasingly British nationalism in Wales and Scotland as well. [21:03] So, you know, there's a lot going on here when we get into the debate about nationalism and the constitution that is nuanced. [21:11] And I think the immigration debate feeds into the nationalism debate. [21:15] And also just a reminder to election cast listeners, [21:18] John Swinney's position for the SNP is that a majority for the SNP in the Scottish Parliament [21:23] would be his trigger for asking for another referendum. [21:27] A referendum he knows that it would be denied him. [21:29] But it's an SNP majority, not just a pro-independence majority, including other parties. [21:36] He's quite specific. [21:37] Yeah, he is quite specific on that. [21:39] And just for the history book, so at the last Holyrood elections, [21:42] the SNP fell one seat short of a majority. [21:45] And the last time the SNP won an outright majority in Holyrood, [21:49] James will correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it was 2011 under Alex Sullivan. [21:53] So yes, so that is what John Swinney said. [21:55] It can't just be other parties that support independence would count as the majority that he's pointing towards. [22:02] It has to be an SNP majority in Holyrood for him to ask the question about the referendum. [22:08] But as you say, that doesn't automatically lead to a mechanism. [22:10] I asked John Swinney about this this morning and I said to him, [22:13] you're a Democrat, right? [22:15] If there's a pro-independence majority in the parliament comprised of you and the Greens, [22:20] is that not a mandate for a referendum? [22:21] And he danced around and eventually said, but if there's a pro-independence majority is a mandate, [22:26] he said, of course it's a mandate. [22:27] But his argument is, it would not be an effective mandate that the only thing that has ever delivered [22:32] a referendum has been an SNP mandate on its own. [22:35] Now, you can have an argument about surely that was because it's the first time it happened. [22:39] And David Cameron agreed as the UK Conservative Prime Minister. [22:42] And it had to be agreed in the Supreme Court since then, as Alex is hinting at. [22:48] In fact, you were hinting at, Adam, sorry, both of you. [22:51] The Supreme Court has said, look, this is not in the gift of Holyrood. [22:55] It's a Westminster power. [22:56] It needs to have agreement for it to happen. [22:58] John Swinney nonetheless says there could be a referendum by 2028. [23:01] It should be pointed out that's the latest in a very, very long list of dates [23:05] that the SNP have given over the years for the next independence referendum. [23:09] Yeah, in theory, we've had about 10 by now, if they'd all gone ahead. [23:13] Luke? [23:14] Yeah, and the interesting thing, right, is that the SNP could, [23:20] and this is, you know, projections across pollsters show that they're very close to getting a majority, [23:25] but could get that majority whilst being on really quite a low share of the vote. [23:30] In fact, it's possible that they get the lowest share of the vote in Holyrood's history [23:36] for a winning party. [23:38] They're sort of bobbing around where they were in 2007. [23:42] So it's going to be that you get this idea that you've got a majority in seats, [23:45] but you've won quite a small share of the votes [23:48] because the unionist vote is now split even further with the addition of Reform UK. [23:55] And the other number that I would put out there is, you know, [23:57] we talked about that kind of top issues ranking. [24:00] When you ask Scots where independence comes, because entirely right, [24:04] it's about 50-50 on the question itself, but you ask people about where it sits in your top issues, [24:10] just 9% of Scots put Scottish independence in their top issues. [24:15] So yes, it might be a split if it came to it, but it's not top of mind for voters at the moment. [24:20] I think what I would add to that is that some independent supporters would say in response to that, [24:28] yeah, but for me, the cost of living is an independence issue, [24:30] and the funding of the NHS is an independence issue, [24:33] and energy is an independence issue. [24:35] So I totally take your point. [24:37] They're not saying it is my number one priority, [24:39] but I think it probably becomes, [24:41] I'm not saying you're suggesting it's not more complex than that, Luke, [24:44] but I think that might be how an independence supporter might answer that. [24:47] But yeah, is it their number one? [24:49] We are screaming for it right now in this election campaign priority on the polling evidence. [24:53] You're absolutely right. No, it's not. [24:54] Although interesting, the first part of what you were saying there about how you could have a good SNP [24:59] showing in the parliament while having not had a great showing in the actual votes cast [25:04] actually would strengthen the UK government argument for saying no to a referendum, [25:08] where in the past, actually, their arguments have been criticised for being quite weak, [25:11] and it's been a political argument of like, the prime minister at the time just doesn't want to do it. [25:15] Actually, this is an extra reason that a prime minister could quote to refuse it. [25:20] Well, absolutely. I mean, if you refused it, you know, [25:23] previously when the SNP were getting close to half of the actual votes cast in an election, [25:28] if they're down closer to a third, having lost around a third of their support, [25:32] I think it becomes easier to make the political case to voters. [25:37] But yeah, I mean, that wider point is absolutely right. [25:39] And the number of times I hear in focus groups, people saying things like, [25:44] well, the Scottish government can't do anything on cost of living because it's constrained by Westminster. [25:48] And if we were independent, we'd be able to act to do it. [25:51] So yeah, it is definitely an issue which permeates across in a very different way [25:55] to the conversation we were having about Wales last week. [25:59] James, one of the things that came out of the Channel 4 leaders debate, [26:02] which was a few days after the BBC one, was this claim from Malcolm Offord, [26:08] Lord Offord, the reform leader, that Labour had offered him some kind of deal. [26:15] Yes. Lord Offord. [26:19] This sounds complicated. [26:21] Yes, exactly. [26:22] And it sounds... [26:24] The problem is it's just completely contested. [26:27] Lord Offord said, oh, words to the effect of, [26:31] you, Anas Sarwar, bounced up to me and said, [26:34] we need to work together to get rid of the SNP. [26:38] Anas Sarwar denies saying those words, [26:40] said he is absolutely, 100%, completely, in all circumstances, [26:45] guaranteeing no matter what happens, [26:48] that there will be no deal whatsoever or agreement [26:50] or anything like that between Labour and reform. [26:55] And so, I mean, in a way, who knows, right? [26:58] We're not going to get anywhere. [26:58] They're both saying the other is lying. [27:01] So, but this gets to a wider question, [27:05] which is, are Labour concerned in their traditional heartlands, [27:10] Glasgow, Lanarkshire, you know, [27:12] the post-industrial central belt of Scotland, [27:17] about a right-wing party managing to break through [27:21] where previously the SNP managed to break through [27:24] and win votes that used to be for years and years solid Labour? [27:27] And I think there is some concern that that is the case [27:30] and the evidence for that would probably be [27:31] the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election [27:34] to the Scottish Parliament, [27:36] where reform were very close to beating the SNP into second place. [27:41] Labour won that and, indeed, central to Labour's argument [27:44] at this campaign saying, look, people keep writing us off [27:47] and saying we can't win, [27:48] but we keep proving they say that they could win. [27:50] You know, they say they did better at the general election [27:52] than anyone thought they would in Scotland [27:53] and they did better in that by-election. [27:56] So, that, but I think there's a bit of the, [27:59] that was maybe the demonstration of the battle [28:02] that's possibly going on in the streets [28:03] and between, you know, for voters between Labour and reform. [28:08] What's interesting, which goes to that point [28:10] about Labour being conscious of where they're currently sitting, [28:13] the kind of threats they're facing [28:14] and what they're having to do in this campaign, [28:16] is, of course, what happened with Anasawa [28:19] when he called for the resignation of Keir Starmer. [28:22] And, you know, so what he's done [28:24] is some people saw that as a gamble or a risk. [28:27] He said that it was just him being honest about his perspective, [28:30] but what that also was, in some people's reading, [28:33] is a sort of admission of the fact [28:36] that the Labour government in Westminster [28:38] is not necessarily going well on the, [28:40] down on the doorsteps in Scotland. [28:42] And so, Anasawa has now given himself, [28:45] and some people will think it was the wrong decision, [28:46] some people will think it was the right one, [28:48] he's given himself the case to make on the doorstep [28:51] about what he is saying is Scottish Labour's offer for Scotland, [28:55] which, again, kind of speaks to this awareness [28:57] of some of the difficulties and challenges that Labour, [29:00] not just Labour exclusively, [29:01] but certainly Labour have been facing [29:02] in this particular election campaign. [29:04] And I think that when he says over and over again, [29:07] as Anasawa does, my country, Scotland, [29:10] I think that's also designed to appeal [29:12] to potential supporters of independence. [29:14] And he's explicitly said, [29:15] even if you support independence, [29:16] I'm not really interested, [29:18] this election's not about that, [29:19] you can vote for me anyway. [29:20] I'm just thinking back to where we started [29:21] and the leaders' debate on BBC Scotland. [29:25] And my third takeaway from it, [29:27] which I've just been reminding myself of now, [29:29] is just how scrambled it all is [29:30] when you look at that line of six men on the stage. [29:33] So you've got John Swinney, [29:34] who's like one of the veterans, [29:36] who's sort of becoming like the new guy again. [29:39] You've got Anasawa, [29:40] who's done one of the most epic things [29:42] you can do in politics, [29:42] which is to stab your leader of your party in the back. [29:45] And it sort of doesn't really even get mentioned anymore. [29:48] You've got the leader of Reform UK, [29:50] who very recently was a Tory. [29:52] And actually, sometimes when you listen to him, [29:53] still sounds like an old school Scottish Tory. [29:56] Then you've got the Greens being the insurgents, [29:57] except until quite recently, [29:58] they were actually in the government in Scotland. [30:01] And then you've got the Lib Dems, [30:02] which has been quite consistently Lib Dem, [30:04] even though we've not seen their manifesto yet. [30:06] So it's quite head spinning, actually, [30:09] because you can't quite pigeonhole everybody in a lazy way. [30:13] Let me try then. [30:14] Let me try and split them into a couple of camps. [30:16] And we talked about this a little bit on Newscast the other week. [30:19] And I'll be interested to see whether Luke and Alex agree with this at all. [30:23] But I think you have, broadly speaking, [30:27] four parties, [30:28] the Greens, Labour, [30:30] the Scottish Greens, Labour, [30:31] the SNP, [30:33] and the Liberal Democrats, [30:35] who are fundamentally in favour [30:37] of a relatively generous welfare state, [30:41] of a relatively, what they would call, [30:43] progressive system of taxation, [30:45] and that government can fix things. [30:48] And then you've got two parties of the right, [30:51] the Reform UK and the Scottish Conservatives, [30:54] who say, actually, [30:56] government needs to, very broadly speaking, [30:58] get out of the way more, [30:59] cut taxes, encourage growth. [31:01] I mean, there you go. [31:01] If we're to boil it right down, [31:03] is that fair? [31:05] And without even mentioning the Constitution, [31:06] which is actually the other big fault line. [31:09] Well, I think I totally agree with that. [31:10] I would probably add, [31:11] you've got Constitution, [31:12] you've got, as you described it, James, [31:14] sort of typical left-right. [31:15] I would add another one, [31:17] which is sort of radical change [31:20] versus we can preserve and improve. [31:23] And I would probably put Reform and the Greens together [31:25] in that radical change [31:27] and the other parties in that other camp. [31:30] But again, it's interesting. [31:32] You know, you talk about those six leaders, [31:33] and I'd be interested, James, [31:35] in particular, if you've heard any of this, [31:37] sort of in your feedback, [31:38] is when we speak to people in focus groups, [31:41] they're really underwhelmed across the board. [31:44] And what we often hear is a sort of, [31:47] particularly from nationalists, [31:48] a sort of sense of loss around Sturgeon. [31:50] You know, people say, [31:51] bring up Sturgeon repeatedly in focus groups [31:53] in a way that I don't hear anywhere else. [31:55] But even some of the other characters [31:57] from Scottish politics past. [31:59] You know, the number of people who will say, [32:00] oh, well, I liked it when Ruth Davidson [32:02] was leading the Scottish Conservative. [32:05] She was a character. [32:07] But, you know, it's almost this sense [32:09] that the sort of giants of Scottish politics [32:11] from the voters' eyes aren't there at the moment. [32:13] Yeah, I think also, you know, [32:16] his legacy is contested, [32:18] but you do have some legacy support [32:20] for Alex Salmond and his leadership as well. [32:24] And then there were giants of the Liberal Democrats [32:26] in the, you know, in the past in Scottish politics. [32:29] Charlie Kennedy, perhaps the most famous, [32:31] okay, we're talking in a Westminster context. [32:34] But then I don't know, Alex, [32:35] are we getting into a misty-eyed debate [32:37] about politicians were always better in the past? [32:40] I mean, maybe, not necessarily, [32:41] but I do also just wonder if there's a counter view [32:44] which says certainly when you take politics [32:46] across the board beyond Scotland [32:48] that people have tried and tasted [32:51] personality-led politics [32:53] and they don't always love it. [32:55] And, you know, actually, there are some politicians [32:56] that might make the case for kind of quiet and stable, [33:00] I guess, you know, so perhaps you don't get [33:02] the characters with the same level [33:04] of name recognition out there. [33:06] Is that what people want? [33:08] Question mark. [33:09] And that is where we will leave this episode [33:10] of Election Cast. [33:11] Luke, thanks very much for coming into the studio. [33:13] Thank you for having me. [33:14] Alex, good to catch up. [33:16] Pleasure as ever. [33:16] And James, great to see you too. [33:18] Great to see you, Adam.