Early Voting & the Fight for Turnout — Battleground Texas

[0:00] The countdown is on, and the stakes in the Lone Star State have never been higher. [0:06] From top-ticket races to the latest polls, campaign ads, and candidate interviews, [0:13] we're tracking every move on the road to November. [0:16] This is Battleground Texas. [0:21] Hello, everyone. I'm Rudy Kosky in Austin. [0:24] I'm Stephen Dial in Dallas. [0:26] I'm Greg Grugan in Houston. [0:27] All right, guys, we're starting off with a somewhat minor October surprise, [0:33] a surprise announcement that came just a few hours ago. [0:36] President Trump is changing up his plans for his trip to Texas next week from Team Red. [0:43] RNC officials say that President Trump is going to Corpus Christi instead of Waco on Tuesday. [0:49] His Lubbock rally that same day is expected to go on as scheduled. [0:53] Trump won McLellan County, where Waco is located, by 30 points in 2024. [0:58] Early vote turnout there right now and in Bell County on a record-busting pace. [1:04] So taking the Waco bypass may be more about numbers than anything else. [1:09] Many experts believe South Texas congressional races that went Republican in 2024 could be up for grabs. [1:15] So Corpus, with its red voting block, clearly a tactical pivot that could provide a springboard [1:21] into South Texas battlegrounds. [1:24] Greg? [1:25] That news comes as polling shows the race for Senate is as tight as ever. [1:30] A new Fox News poll shows State Representative James Tallarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton [1:35] tied at 49 percent among likely voters. [1:39] Now, back in September, Tallarico led the same poll by about two points. [1:44] Out on the campaign trail today, both candidates said it will all come down to turnout. [1:49] But every poll in this state, Fox just had one yesterday, so we're tied, is going to come [1:53] down to the wire. [1:55] You know early voting started Monday, ends Friday, October 30th, how many of you all voted? [2:01] Good. [2:02] So, I want every single person in the room to early vote and spend the next 10 days, 12 [2:07] days, getting everyone out to the polls, every one of your friends. [2:11] We can win, we will win, if our people show up. [2:14] We are going to do something extraordinary, we are going to do something historic. [2:20] We are going to shock the nation, we're going to shock the world, when we beat the billionaires [2:24] and take that test. [2:26] And in that same Fox News poll, about 28 percent of Republicans who identify as non-MAGA Republicans [2:35] said that they will vote for James Tallarico. [2:37] I'll talk to a TCU political science professor about that. [2:40] The Fox News poll shows 28 percent of, quote, non-MAGA Republicans say that they are willing [2:46] to vote for James Tallarico. [2:48] Is this his only path to victory, Republicans voting for him? [2:52] It is his best path. [2:54] I mean, no Democrat has won statewide in Texas in three decades. [2:58] And that means you've got to pull from Republican voters for a Democrat to win. [3:02] Beto O'Rourke has been close in polls, but lost. [3:05] Colin Allred was close in polls, and that result was really not close. [3:09] So what should people know when they are looking at these polls before and after they go ahead [3:14] and cast their ballot? [3:16] I think you ought to look at these as just being a best guess at what might happen. [3:20] It's a close race. [3:21] It's a close race. [3:22] It can go one way or the other. [3:23] What polls do is they do tell you why people make the choices they make, but we rarely get [3:29] to that point. [3:29] So we keep reporting the horse race, but we really ought to step back from it and ask the [3:34] why. [3:35] So your observation about non-MAGA Republicans, that's incredibly valuable polling. [3:40] It tells us where Tallarico has to go to get his vote. [3:46] Good insight there. [3:47] Now, the same Fox News poll also took a close look at the Texas governor's race. [3:52] Incumbent Greg Abbott has a five-point lead over his Democrat challenger, State Representative [3:56] Gina Hinojosa. [3:58] That's the same margin that he had in the Fox poll last month. [4:01] Now, the governor is getting some blowback over a list that his campaign posted Monday. [4:07] It was claimed that 12 Democrat sheriffs from border communities were backing his re-election [4:12] bid. [4:13] Since then, the sheriffs from Webb, Valverde, Zapata counties have denied endorsing Abbott [4:18] and want off the list. [4:20] Now, I reached out to the governor's office and just about five minutes ago, they called [4:23] me back. [4:24] They said that those three individuals, those three sheriffs did, in fact, endorse the [4:30] governor, but are feeling pressure right now from the Democrat side and have backed off. [4:36] So they're saying it's just politics as usual. [4:39] Meanwhile, voters continue to show up in force for this midterm election. [4:44] The numbers dropping on Wednesday show a turnout at levels similar to a presidential election [4:48] during the first two days of early voting. [4:51] The big turnout has both sides taking a victory lap. [4:54] On the Will Cain Show, radio host Mark Davis said the numbers show enthusiasm from Republicans [5:00] that some may not have expected. [5:03] Democrat enthusiasm was already baked in. [5:05] We knew there would be Democrat enthusiasm. [5:07] I don't know how much of that is necessarily Tallarico-led enthusiasm or just a general Trump [5:11] agenda. [5:12] We're tired of that. [5:13] We're tired of Patrick, et cetera, et cetera. [5:14] But the one thing that the high Republican, the high overall numbers have been, you mentioned [5:19] Montgomery, that's just north of Houston. [5:20] McClellan is Waco. [5:21] These are conservative areas. [5:23] And if turnout is high there, then something is happening that I thought would happen all [5:27] along. [5:27] I can't guarantee or predict anything. [5:29] And that is that conservative enthusiasm for Paxton or conservative enthusiasm in general [5:34] has been underplayed, has been understated. [5:39] Ken has what we might call some issues. [5:42] But the main issues that he does not have is, is he the clear and only conservative choice? [5:48] Some issues. [5:49] All right, coming up, we're just getting started. [5:52] We'll have more when Battleground Texas returns. [5:54] Welcome back to the Battleground. [6:02] If you feel like that you're seeing a lot of political ads this year, you are. [6:06] Ad tracking data shows that the Tallarico-Paxton race is on track to be the most expensive U.S. [6:11] Senate contest ever. [6:13] Last month, according to the filings from the FEC, billionaire Elon Musk contributed nearly [6:18] $160 million to a pro-Paxton PAC. [6:22] But he's not letting his money do all of the talking. [6:24] In recent days, Musk made several social media posts about the Texas Senate race, showing [6:30] support for Ken Paxton, others resurfacing past videos of James Tallarico calling him [6:35] a creep and pure evil. [6:38] Paxton himself responded to Musk agreeing by stating there's something, quote, deeply wrong [6:44] with the state representative, unquote. [6:46] Tallarico had his own choice of words for Musk at a rally in Houston last night. [6:50] Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat in Texas. [6:56] We just found out that he is almost single-handedly bankrolling this effort to install Ken Paxton [7:03] in the U.S. Senate and stop our movement here in Texas. [7:07] Our movement is funded by 1.3 million individuals who have given their hard-earned money to our [7:18] campaign. [7:18] Ken Paxton is funded by one dude. [7:26] Elon Musk wants our land. [7:28] He wants our water. [7:30] He wants our wages. [7:32] He wants our tax dollars. [7:34] He wants his very own personal United States senator. [7:37] He is trying to buy Texas. [7:41] But on November 3rd, we are going to deliver a crystal clear message to the world's first [7:46] trillionaire. [7:47] Texas is not for sale. [7:49] Well, thank God he doesn't want our kitchen sink. [7:54] Right, guys? [7:55] You know, politics can certainly turn on a dime. [7:58] Elon Musk was a Democrat darling before teaming up with Trump. [8:01] Then he had to fall out with Trump. [8:02] Then he made up with Trump. [8:04] Greg, his company has saved astronauts, gave us flying cars. [8:08] He's created about 30,000 jobs here across Texas. [8:11] Yet Democrats hate him so much, they're going to vandalize Teslas. [8:14] What do you make of this Senate race donation, brouhaha, and this anti-capitalism rage? [8:21] Rudy, I just want to make something perfectly clear. [8:24] Lack of greenbacks has not been Tallarico's holdback. [8:29] His coffers have been flushed from the get-go and continue to be. [8:33] So spare us the poor David versus mean old big-money Goliath schtick because it's just flat disingenuous. [8:42] And James, that's being kind. [8:44] Tallarico likes to pick and choose. [8:47] Some billionaires good, others evil. [8:50] Voters, if you're not insulted, you should be. [8:53] As for the anti-capitalism rage, it's as old as the human condition. [8:58] The have-nots have been focusing their anger on the haves for centuries. [9:03] Resentment that burns deepest during the thousands of affordability crises [9:07] endured by mankind over the last 300,000 or so years. [9:12] At its core, is this one really any different? [9:16] Guys? [9:17] Thank you, Methuselah. [9:19] You know history. [9:20] All right, let's build off what Greg just said. [9:23] Three big political boogeymen have been created this election cycle. [9:26] Data centers, flock cameras, and billionaires like Elon Musk. [9:30] Now, to be fair, the Democrats have their own fat cat ATM club. [9:33] Soros, Bloomberg, Pritzker, a lot of deep-pocket tech and hedge fund guys. [9:37] Even Tallarico flip-flopped on his big bucks bashing, [9:41] going to New York, L.A., to get money from big-dollar donors. [9:44] So, Stephen, here's my question. [9:46] This seems like another hot issue that Republicans just flat-out misplayed. [9:49] They lost the political outside influence narrative. [9:53] Right? [9:55] Yeah. [9:55] I mean, and it's something that may be playing well with Democrats, [9:59] of this David and Goliath theme that Greg was just talking about. [10:03] And in my interview with Tallarico on Sunday, I asked him, [10:05] you also have a bunch of money. [10:07] It's not like it's a little old Tallarico campaign. [10:11] And so, hey, both candidates are saying what they got to say to reach the candidates [10:15] that they need to reach to influence the thoughts and minds that they need to influence. [10:19] That's great. [10:21] All right. [10:21] We're going to go down ballot to an unexpected battleground on the other side of this break. [10:27] Welcome back. [10:34] All over the Lone Star State, incumbent GOP lawmakers representing districts once considered [10:39] safely Republican are finding themselves in pitched battles to hold their seats. [10:44] Here in the Bayou City, State Representative Mano Deala is a good example. [10:48] The highly respected lawmaker representing affluent West Houston says he's boiled his message down [10:55] to fundamentals, proven economic performance, and hard guardrails on local taxation. [11:03] We have almost as much in savings as the Constitution allows. [11:09] We did the largest funding in public school education in history. [11:12] We're focusing on public safety, infrastructure, and all those things that have made this community [11:19] so phenomenal. [11:21] And what's government's role? [11:23] Let it happen. [11:24] Don't overregulate it. [11:25] Don't overtax it. [11:26] Get a civil justice system that works and make sure that we protect our citizens and have [11:30] a community where you can raise a family and prosper. [11:34] The fact that Commissioner's Court increased our property taxes, not just now, the largest increase [11:40] ever, they did it a couple years ago, and we already have an annual increase in their revenues [11:46] just from appraisal increases and new development and new properties coming online. [11:50] So they have a steady increase in revenue. [11:53] The fact that now we've seen two big increases, 41% overall, in a time when we have this affordability [11:58] crisis, right? [12:00] We have this time where wages just haven't caught up. [12:06] Hopefully a lot of this is temporary. [12:07] Hopefully after the Iran war we get back into check a little bit more. [12:10] But it's real, and it's real today. [12:14] And what does Harris County do? [12:16] They say, we're going to take more from you guys because we know best. [12:19] I think that's insulting. [12:21] Can you as a state lawmaker with your colleagues in Austin be a firewall against future abuses [12:29] of this taxation power? [12:31] And I think that might have been some of the motivation because there's been talk that [12:35] we're going to go into the legislature and make sure that when municipalities, local [12:39] community, local government, when they do a raise in a rate, in a tax rate, that those [12:45] things need to go to the voter. [12:47] And I think Harris County thinking this may actually happen, they decided to jump the gun [12:52] and do it themselves. [12:53] And they did it before looking in their backyard, downsizing where they need to, making sure [12:59] their house is in order. [13:01] You look at their spending. [13:02] Their spending has gone up tremendously. [13:04] Okay, guys, Republican Mano Diallo looking to persuade local voters with kitchen table [13:10] issues. [13:11] Did not mention the president's name even once in our interview. [13:15] And I suspect he has company among GOP colleagues in battleground races around the state. [13:22] Stephen, agree? [13:23] Disagree? [13:25] Very much agree. [13:26] You got to do what you got to do to get that win. [13:29] And then you can go back to supporting, talking about the president, tweeting about him, whatever [13:33] you got to do. [13:34] These state reps and state senators and local officials know their constituents best. [13:40] They know when people aren't too hot on the commander-in-chief and know when people are [13:44] okay with talking about him all the time. [13:47] And it seems like for Mano Diallo and some others, they know that they need to talk about [13:51] things that affect their voters. [13:54] And it's spinning kitchen table items or spinning things that affect voters' pockets. [13:59] Greg? [14:00] Yeah, I'm going to pivot off that. [14:01] Rudy, you've consistently pointed out that tossing one group of bums out only to discover [14:07] that the replacements are worse may well be the Republicans' best reason for hope. [14:13] What's your take on Mano's laser focus on economic competence and guardrails for excessive [14:20] local taxation? [14:23] Yes, Greg, I'm agreeing with Stephen. [14:25] It's all about the economy. [14:26] As we have pointed out for months now, it was the big issue, of course, back in 24. [14:32] And this year, Democrats redefined that same message under the affordability banner. [14:36] So Mano has the right game plan, I believe, in place. [14:40] The problem is that the leadership at the top of the Texas GOP, you know, they haven't [14:44] been helping them out. [14:46] And they wasted the entire summer defending Ken Paxton, tearing down John Cornyn. [14:50] And as a result, it's hard now to remind voters who started the fire six years ago. [14:55] But based on the early vote assessments, the GOP may have already lost the bulk of independent [15:00] voters. [15:01] So I'm expecting in the next week and a half, you got to get out, Greg. [15:08] All right, guys. [15:11] Harris County, one in four early voters thus far did not vote in the last midterm. [15:18] Stephen, quickly, are you seeing the same in DFW? [15:22] Man, we're seeing a different trend in DFW. [15:24] We're seeing a lot of enthusiasm, of course. [15:27] And, of course, we have to figure out who that enthusiasm is. [15:30] Is it both parties? [15:31] Is it one party? [15:32] But I have been hearing from just grassroots people talking about new voters turning out [15:38] to the polls. [15:38] But we'll have to see what the final number is in two weeks. [15:43] All right. [15:43] Take us to break, Stephen. [15:45] Yeah. [15:46] Coming up, our parting shots. [15:53] All right. [15:54] Welcome back to Battleground Texas. [15:55] It's time for our parting shots. [15:56] Mine, Greg gets on me for talking about sports, but it's a sport that y'all aren't going to [16:01] think I'm talking about. [16:02] The WNBA, my hometown, Atlanta Dream, are in the WNBA Finals 1, Game 3. [16:08] So they're up 2-1. [16:09] I just want to give a shout-out, show some love to women's sports. [16:12] Hope the Atlanta Dream pull it off. [16:14] All right. [16:15] Who's next? [16:16] Yeah, but bad form. [16:18] Both teams didn't come out for the National Anthem and stand during that. [16:22] They ran back into the locker room for it. [16:25] Crazy stuff. [16:26] Crazy days. [16:26] All right. [16:26] My parting shot, Big Ben, battleground involving border security there at the park. [16:31] The fight has now gone all the way to the Supreme Court. [16:34] Now, if you believe all the media accounts and accusations from anti-Trumpers, you'd think [16:37] that giant wall was planned for all 500 miles of Big Ben border, even the famous River Canyon. [16:43] Actually, the construction plan costs for only 17 miles of low-profile barriers in the [16:48] park. [16:49] They're not building a giant 30-foot wall or installing stadium-like lighting throughout [16:53] the park. [16:54] What they're doing is adding and proving about 200 miles of patrol roads, installing high-tech [16:59] surveillance systems. [17:00] Far cry from the claim that they're bulldozing the park. [17:04] Paving paradise. [17:06] Greg? [17:07] All right, guys. [17:08] A little breaking news here in the Houston area. [17:10] Democrat Carmen Turner, the sitting Fort Bend County tax assessor-collector, has been indicted [17:16] on federal corruption charges, including fraud, conspiracy, and theft of public funds. [17:22] The crimes, or alleged crimes, paying her mother's caretaker with taxpayer funds and having a [17:28] family member on the county payroll who performed absolutely no work. [17:33] Of course, folks here are questioning the timing of this announcement, exactly 12 days [17:39] before the midterm. [17:40] FYI, latest polling has Tallarico up in Fort Bend by 18 points. [17:45] And President Trump underwater, 60 to 40. [17:50] All right, that's all the time we have. [17:52] You can see more of our interviews and segments by going to our YouTube pages. [17:57] And keep the conversation going by interacting with us on social media. [18:03] All right, with each passing day, the pressure is increasing on the battleground. [18:07] Is an October surprise a big one coming? [18:10] We'll see you tomorrow at 3 on Fox Local.