Downed US pilot trained to survive, evade, resist and escape: Analysis

[0:00] marina miro is a researcher at the defense studies department of king's college london [0:04] she joins us from munich good to have you marina so so firstly um we know of course the clock is [0:10] ticking isn't it on locating this missing pilot of this downed f-15e aircraft from what you understand [0:17] strategically what protocols will the pilot on the ground and the teams involved in the search [0:22] be following right now hello and thank you for having me well first of all uh all air [0:30] crew members are trained uh to survive and evade and then resist and escape soldiers [0:38] s-e-r-e school and also special operations forces in the united states so most likely depending on [0:45] the state of the pilot um he will be trying to blend with the terrain and survive until he is [0:54] found by the rescue mission uh the problem here is the better he hides the more [1:00] difficult it will be to locate him for those conducting the rescue mission and we know that [1:07] iran has announced a reward to civilians who find the pilot so there are two teams looking for the [1:15] pilot one from the air which is the us side and the other one on the ground and depending of course [1:22] on the supplies um that the pilot has on his injuries of course we don't know if he's injured [1:29] if he can walk if he has enough [1:31] food if he can uh somehow uh survive in the difficult terrain because we don't know where [1:38] where he is and so those are all factors that contribute to the difficulty right and it would [1:45] be a political nightmare for the united states not just militarily if the iranian side captures him [1:51] from a strategic standpoint marina at what point does that search and rescue mission transform [1:58] a rescue effort into something that is potentially unacceptable [2:02] risky or could even further escalate the situation well one could assume given the fact that the [2:12] iranian side managed to to shoot down the jet that the iranian air defenses are not all destroyed [2:19] and most likely there is a high risk for low flying um u.s aircraft [2:26] making the mission risky and so the red there has to be some sort of a calculus what if another [2:33] aircraft gets shot down while the rescue mission is ongoing and that could be one of the points [2:40] where this quickly escalates because the us doesn't have any ground troops in iran present [2:48] and that could trigger some sort of a horizontal um and vertical escalation meaning expanding the [2:54] mission but also a possibility of sending in ground troops you've already mentioned that um [3:02] iran is offering essentially a bounceaniックar [3:04] for capturing this particular pilot. [3:08] Let's talk hypothetically here, [3:10] because if that missing pilot is indeed captured, [3:13] they immediately become a very powerful diplomatic lever for Iran. [3:17] What happens then? [3:20] You are correct. [3:21] First of all, if that pilot is captured, [3:25] according to the international law, [3:27] he should be treated as a prisoner of war [3:29] and exchanged when the war is over [3:31] and receive medical assistance and so on. [3:34] How this will look in reality might be different [3:37] so he might be used to extract intelligence [3:41] about the U.S. mission in the Middle East. [3:44] But most notably, he will be used [3:47] for informational and informational psychological purposes. [3:52] And this is a politically important asset [3:56] for the Iranian side. [3:58] So essentially, he might be used as a bargaining chip. [4:02] And that is a serious matter [4:04] if we look at the likes of the, [4:06] of the hostage crisis in the 80s, [4:10] again involving Iran, [4:11] and how the mission unfolded. [4:14] Therefore, it would be detrimental [4:16] for the United States in political terms [4:19] if the pilot got captured [4:20] and he would, of course, be shown on TV, [4:24] most likely interviewed. [4:25] It would send a message also to Iranian allies. [4:29] So that would be a catastrophic thing. [4:31] Isn't that against the Geneva Convention [4:33] to potentially parade those captured in war, [4:36] prisoners of war? [4:37] On television, isn't it? [4:40] Well, it depends on in what way. [4:42] Because it doesn't mean that he will be paraded. [4:47] It could be that he might be interviewed. [4:50] Or it could be that he might want to send a message [4:54] to the U.S. leadership. [4:57] So it depends on the condition. [4:59] I'm not an expert on Geneva Conventions, [5:01] but as with any law, [5:04] you have different interpretations [5:06] and it all depends on the specific conditions. [5:08] And we don't know what a hypothetical case [5:11] of Iran showing the prisoner of war on TV will be. [5:17] It sounds like an extremely high-stakes situation [5:20] for both the U.S. and Iran to be in right now. [5:23] Marina Minran of the Defense Studies Department [5:26] of King's College London. [5:27] Many thanks.