Donald Trump says US to 'blockade' Strait of Hormuz after Iran talks fail — BBC News

[0:00] We are looking at these Truth Social posts from President Trump responding to the breakdown [0:05] in those talks in Islamabad, those marathon talks that took place. [0:10] J.D. Vance on his way back to Washington and we understand that the Vice President [0:14] and the President kept in close contact speaking multiple times during the talks [0:18] but this is the first response that we've had from the President to the breakdown in the talks. [0:24] Let's have a look at what he has just put out on Truth Social. [0:27] Two very, very long posts from him and we'll give you some of the things that we're wanting to highlight [0:35] and then I'll take you through both of those comments. [0:38] He says, so there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to [0:44] but the only point that really mattered, nuclear, was not. [0:48] And here you have it, effective immediately, the United States Navy, the finest in the world [0:53] will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. [1:00] At some point we will reach and all being allowed to go in, all being allowed to go out. [1:05] But then further on he says, any Iranian who fires at us or a peaceful vessel will be blown to hell. [1:16] Iran knows better than anyone how to end the situation which has already devastated their country, [1:21] their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their anti-aircraft and radar are useless. [1:26] Hominay and most of their leaders are dead because of their nuclear ambitions. [1:30] Then he says the blockade will begin shortly, other countries will be involved in this blockade. [1:36] Iran will not be allowed to profit off this illegal act of extortion. [1:40] They want money and more importantly they want nuclear. [1:42] Additionally, and at an appropriate moment, we are fully locked and loaded [1:47] and our military will finish up the little that is left of Iran. [1:51] And then what you're seeing on your screen now is the true social post that followed very quickly [1:57] after that one in which he talks more extensively about the Strait of Hormuz, [2:03] saying that Iran promised to open it and they knowingly failed to do so. [2:07] This caused anxiety, dislocation and pain to many people and countries throughout the world. [2:12] So he goes on to say the meeting with Iran began early in the morning. [2:18] It lasted throughout the night, close to 20 hours. [2:21] I could go into great detail and talk about much that has been gotten, [2:24] but there is one thing that matters. [2:26] Iran is unwilling to give up its nuclear ambitions. [2:29] In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our military operations [2:34] to its conclusion, but all those points don't matter compared to allowing nuclear power [2:39] to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult and unpredictable people. [2:44] Ending it by saying, as I've always said right from the beginning and many years ago, [2:49] Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. [2:53] There is a lot to unpick from these two posts from President Trump talking about the US Navy blockading [3:01] the Strait of Hormuz. [3:03] Of course, there's very few vessels passing through at the moment as it is, [3:08] but also the US does have military vessels in the area. [3:13] They have a few warships in the area at the moment, [3:16] so perhaps he's thinking of using those to block the strait. [3:19] In terms of Iran's nuclear ambitions, [3:22] it was always thought that that would be a key sticking point at the talks, [3:26] and it seems that we can tell from this truth social that progress has been made on other issues, [3:31] but that indeed is the one that caused the talks to fall apart. [3:36] So we'll continue to look into this truth social comment from President Trump, [3:42] quite a few contradictions in there as well, [3:45] and see what we can make of it. [3:48] But let's bring in more now about the actual Strait of Hormuz, [3:54] this vital waterway that we talk about so often, [3:57] so important to people here in the Gulf as well, [4:01] what will happen there. [4:03] The US Navy says President Trump is going to start blockading any and all ships, [4:07] trying to enter or leave it. [4:10] But remember, a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz. [4:15] It's this narrow stretch of waterway located between Iran, the UAE, and Oman. [4:20] It's only 33 kilometres at its tightest point, [4:24] so its future is incredibly important. [4:27] As I mentioned, 20% of the world's oil and liquefied gas [4:30] usually pass through the Strait, [4:32] and the fact that it's been blocked has led to surging oil prices, [4:36] surging energy bills around the world. [4:38] So it was really interesting when I spoke to Dr Omar Ashour. [4:41] He's a professor of security and military studies [4:43] and the founder of the Security Studies Programme [4:46] at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. [4:49] He has done extensive research on security right around this region. [4:54] He told me more about what is actually happening right now in the Strait. [4:57] The main worry is the continuation of the conflict. [5:01] Both Qatar and Oman are very worried about that. [5:03] Others are as well quite worried because they were targeted even with heavier intensity. [5:09] The main problem across the Gulf is that the targets are large. [5:15] The desalination facilities, the gas facilities, the petroleum facilities, airports, [5:20] all of them are very large. [5:22] They are fixed. [5:23] They cannot be moved. [5:25] Their location is very well known. [5:27] So pre-programmed Shahid-136 loitering munitions can go directly there in tens or hundreds. [5:35] So how well protected them are these places? [5:37] Even if you protect them very well, [5:40] even if the Iranians, like the Russians do, [5:43] send 200 of those Shahids per day, [5:46] if you get 195 of them and five made it through, [5:50] then you still damage the airport, [5:51] you still damage the salination facility, [5:53] you still damage the energy facility and so on. [5:55] So this is the main worry. [5:57] This is defensively. [5:58] So they are investing a lot in air defenses. [6:01] On one end, this is across the Gulf, [6:03] especially the short-range air defenses, [6:05] and they are seeking assistance from Ukraine in that sense. [6:09] But on the offensive side, in terms of opening the straits, [6:13] all of them have that challenge. [6:16] We're talking about over 600 ship and tankers are stuck inside the Gulf. [6:22] We're talking about LNG facilities [6:23] and other facilities are unable to get their products outside, [6:28] and therefore they stopped, pretty much. [6:29] So forcing an opening is also a very challenging task. [6:33] Can you give us an idea of how dangerous the Strait of Hormuz is right now [6:36] for a ship that wanted to pass through? [6:38] So right now, frankly speaking, it's a strategic win for Iran. [6:42] Iran has shifted the maritime lane towards close to its borders, [6:47] and it is able, because of the nature of its strike architecture, [6:50] despite not having a navy, despite losing operationally in the sea [6:53] by the U.S., via the U.S. strikes, [6:57] it still maintains small boats that can attack. [7:00] It's not just mines. [7:01] It's more complex than mines, [7:03] because also cruise missiles from the shores can strike very accurately. [7:07] Anti-ship ballistic missiles, which are very hard to defend against, [7:10] are very fast, and also are available, [7:13] plus the loitering munitions and drone threats, [7:16] whether in the air or in the sea. [7:18] So it's a very complex architecture. [7:20] We've been there before in the 80s, [7:23] you know, playing Mantis and Ernest Will and all these operations. [7:26] The U.S. conducted between 87 till 89, [7:29] even after the war, after the Iraq-Iran war, [7:31] four operations. [7:33] One-year-long escort operation [7:35] that was escorting Kuwaiti ships [7:38] 600 miles from the Kuwaiti ports [7:40] all the way outside of the Hormuz Straits [7:43] to avoid being struck by Iran. [7:45] It was very... [7:47] It kind of had a success, [7:50] but it was accompanied by also special operations, [7:53] playing Mantis, [7:54] which were... [7:55] They were going after the Iranian assets [7:56] to undermine the threat. [7:58] And also, this lasted for almost two years. [8:02] So we were talking about [8:03] very long security investments [8:05] with the U.S. capabilities of the Cold War era. [8:09] It was different type of capabilities [8:11] and with a threat that was much less [8:14] than what we have now, [8:16] and much less complex. [8:16] One of the key threats now, surely, [8:18] and the change since those days [8:19] is the use of drones. [8:21] Absolutely. [8:21] That's one key area. [8:23] And not just the use of drones, [8:25] the use of drones with that type of quantity [8:27] and with the capability of regenerating them [8:31] even after being destroyed, [8:32] even after 13,000 targets that the U.S. have hit [8:35] and about 7,000 that the Israelis have hit. [8:38] So you were able to still sustain the fight this way. [8:41] And this is the real issue there. [8:42] I mean, when you talk about those numbers, [8:44] the amount of strikes [8:45] and the thousands from the U.S. and the Israelis, [8:49] how much do we actually know [8:50] about Iran's capabilities militarily? [8:53] It was significantly degraded, [8:55] so they entered the negotiations bloodied, [8:57] but for sure not in a defeat. [9:01] The U.S. and Israel were successful [9:04] in suppression and destruction of air defenses. [9:06] They were, according to the reports that came out, [9:09] the intelligence estimates [9:10] that one-third of Iranians' ballistic missile capabilities [9:14] were destroyed. [9:15] The other two-thirds, [9:16] they're not sure about it, what happened. [9:19] At least two-thirds, they may be under rubble. [9:21] So the capabilities are degraded, [9:24] but it's not over. [9:26] Why? [9:26] Because Iran has a lot more capabilities [9:28] when it comes to, one, regenerating these forces, [9:31] two, reconstitutions of units, [9:34] three, the continuous Iran ended this fight [9:38] on the 39th day [9:39] with waves of hundreds of drones [9:42] and tens of ballistic missiles [9:44] and a number of cruise missiles as well. [9:46] This is only in the Gulf, [9:48] plus its allies in the region. [9:51] So the non-state forces [9:52] that Iran invested militarily and politically in, [9:56] you have the Houthis, for example, [9:58] that did not escalate as much as possible [10:00] in Bab el-Mandeb Straits. [10:02] This is a, if you consider it a non-state force, [10:04] this is the first non-state force [10:06] that has anti-Shik ballistic missiles [10:08] and used them with accuracy, [10:10] a very dangerous type of capability [10:12] for a non-state force [10:13] and in a very strategic strait in Bab el-Mandeb. [10:17] Until today, the IDF has six divisions [10:21] south of the Litani, [10:22] an area of about 250 square kilometers. [10:25] So we're talking about a sort of a regional war [10:28] with Iran's non-state allies still operating. [10:32] So you've got the long [10:33] and mid-range strike capability still evident. [10:35] The non-state forces in strategic locations still active. [10:39] They have the capabilities to choose who passes [10:43] and who gets blocked in the strait of Hormuz, [10:47] who gets to pay. [10:48] I mean, their allies are not paying the toll, [10:51] the booth toll in the... [10:53] So they're very selective on who passes with money, [10:56] who passes without money, [10:58] and who does not pass at all. [11:00] So with that picture, [11:01] it looks to me that they are entering this bloodied [11:04] but have a significant course of leverage. [11:08] So just to confirm what we've been hearing [11:11] from President Trump and what we've learned [11:14] brought an end to the talks taking place in Islamabad. [11:17] It was, as expected, the stalemate [11:20] over Iran's nuclear ambitions [11:22] and Iran's nuclear stockpile [11:24] and also its refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. [11:27] We've learned quite a bit actually [11:29] from President Trump's truth social comments. [11:31] Let's just show you them again [11:33] as we continue to look into what he means [11:36] with some of his comments. [11:37] But he has said the US Navy [11:39] will start preventing ships [11:41] from passing through the Strait of Hormuz [11:43] and will stop any vessel that pays a toll to Iran [11:46] for use of the waterway. [11:48] And in this post, [11:49] he accuses Tehran of extortion. [11:53] Global energy supplies, of course, [11:55] will remain trapped [11:58] in the absence of any kind of deal. [12:01] That will be very worrying [12:02] when markets open again tomorrow. [12:04] And for people in this region concerned [12:07] about what is happening to supplies [12:10] going through that vital shipping lane as well. [12:13] So that really dashing hopes [12:16] that any agreement could have been reached. [12:19] And to remind you, [12:20] 10 days remain in this tenuous ceasefire [12:23] that we see at the moment. [12:24] And no word of whether that will continue [12:26] from President Trump. [12:28] But what he does say at the end [12:30] is that the blockade will begin shortly. [12:33] Other countries will be involved in this blockade. [12:36] No more details on that yet. [12:37] Iran will not be allowed to profit [12:39] off this illegal act of extortion. [12:41] They want money. [12:42] More importantly, they want nuclear. [12:44] Additionally, [12:44] and at an appropriate moment, [12:45] we are fully locked and loaded [12:47] and our military will finish up [12:50] the little that is left of Iran. [12:52] So that comment, that threat, [12:55] finishing off that truth social post there as well. [12:58] And in one that he wrote after that, [13:00] he says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. [13:02] Just saying that it's the nuclear ambitions of Iran [13:05] that has brought an end to those talks. [13:07] Thank you.