Doha Debates: Do conspiracy theories hold value?

[0:07] Was the moon landing real? [0:09] Do lizard people walk among us? [0:12] Did the CIA run a covert mind-controlled program [0:15] on U.S. citizens? [0:17] Conspiracy theories, they can be imaginative, even fun. [0:21] They can also be dangerous. [0:24] Every now and then, one may even turn out to be true. [0:28] I'm Dereen Abougeida. This is the Doha Debates Podcast. [0:31] But they're so satisfying because everything ties together [0:48] in a way that just doesn't happen in real life. [0:50] Active propagation of conspiracy theory and hate speech [0:56] against Rohingya in 2017 led to genocide. [1:00] You know, we may not have lizard brains, but we definitely have monkey brains. [1:03] And I don't know what we're going to do, you know, in five years. [1:05] We want free speech. We want to know what people are really thinking. [1:10] Today's debate, is there anything worthwhile in conspiracy theories? [1:16] I'd like to welcome our guests. [1:24] Alex Berenson is a former New York Times reporter [1:27] and writer of the Substack newsletter, Unreported Truths. [1:31] Noriyanti Jhali is the co-author of Misguided Democracy in Malaysia and Indonesia, [1:36] Digital Propaganda in Southeast Asia. [1:39] Andrea Kitta is a professor of folklore at East Carolina University. [1:43] And Heather Berlin is an associate clinical professor of psychiatry and neuroscience [1:48] at the ICANN School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. [1:51] Welcome to you all. [1:52] So the first question to the table. [1:55] Andrea, start us off. [1:57] Do conspiracy theories hold any value? [1:59] So I think they're really important to look at because they actually tell us a lot [2:03] about the temperature of what's happening in the world. [2:06] So they tell us a little bit about what people are afraid of, [2:08] what they're concerned about, kind of what's going on, [2:11] and what their real fears are. [2:13] So I think they do have some value, although they definitely do have some problems as well. [2:18] Alex? [2:20] Yeah, they absolutely have value because sometimes they're true [2:25] and sometimes they point people in the direction of things that are true. [2:30] I would say the most obvious one in the last few years that everyone knows about [2:35] was the argument over whether or not COVID was natural and leapt to humans from bats via raccoon dog [2:49] or whatever animal supposedly was the intermediary or whether it much more likely leaked [2:55] or I should say whether it leaked from a lab in Wuhan, China. [2:59] And, you know, in 2020 when people dared to raise that possibility, [3:04] they were very loudly called conspiracy theorists. [3:07] And I think today most serious people agree that COVID almost, you know, [3:15] almost surely came out of a lab, out of that lab. [3:18] Now we can argue about why, what happened and whether it was a mistake or whether, [3:23] I mean, I personally think it probably was a mistake, but the idea that this virus came out of a bat [3:32] in this natural form, even though no one's been able to find any precursor that looks anything like it. [3:39] You know, I think that's an example of a case where the quote-unquote conspiracy theorists were 100% right. [3:46] And we need to acknowledge that and we need to acknowledge that conspiracy theories have value. [3:51] Nuryanti, is there a nodding along acknowledgments or what's going on? [3:55] Like for me, the way I see it, conspiracy theories, instead of having social values, [4:00] it has instrumental values for platforms, for political actors that benefit from informational chaos. [4:08] We're talking about like how platforms such as meta platforms, WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram benefit from this heavy engagement on the platform. [4:18] So the more engagement that they have on the platform, the more advertising revenue they can generate. [4:24] So that's one. [4:25] And secondly, we're talking about like political actors, especially in authoritarian states or weak democracies, [4:32] they can use conspiracy theories to maintain power and to gain power. [4:36] So that's how I see it. [4:38] Heather? [4:40] So, you know, I think that they have value in the sense that they help us understand a bit more about the human brain [4:47] and about psychology, regardless of whether they're true or not. [4:52] So, you know, our brains are wired for survival, not for truth. [4:58] And while, you know, the outcome could vary, meaning let's say the, you know, conspiracy theory that, you know, the coronavirus started in a lab ends up to be true. [5:11] That's because enough evidence then builds up to suggest that. [5:14] I think the problems come in when there's conspiracy theory and the overwhelming evidence is in the opposite direction, but people consistently hold on to those beliefs. [5:25] And that's based on our wiring. [5:27] It's based on confirmation bias and pattern detection and, you know, fear. [5:32] We, when, when we have inconsistency or uncertainty, we seek for comfort in explanations. [5:41] And so I think we're wired to, to want to believe in some underlying foundational like explanation and meaning for things. [5:49] And so it's important to give us some sort of solace and comfort. [5:53] I think the problems come in when people adhere to these ideas because of maybe group identity and all the overwhelming evidence is false. [6:01] Yet they continue to adhere to them like some, some people, you know, who are anti-vax for various reasons where that can actually have real world harmful impacts. [6:10] So I think it's a kind of mixed bag. [6:12] So, I mean, like, you know, I agree with that point because, especially during COVID-19, where I'm from, I'm from Malaysia. [6:19] So there's a lot of issue with anti-vax movement, where I'm from. [6:23] And a lot of time, this anti-vax narrative kind of like associated with releases values, right? [6:30] So a lot of Malaysia, if you know, Malaysia is a Muslim majority country. [6:35] And one of the key conspiracy theories among anti-vax believers, right? [6:41] They were saying there's porcine DNA in a vaccine and a lot of anti-hala, non-hala components in vaccine. [6:50] So this, this, this, this conspiracy theories kind of like spread on Facebook across different social media platforms. [6:59] And because people have no idea about what's going on during COVID-19, that conspiracy theory helped them to feel better about themselves and about the ideology. [7:10] But the issue is, you know, it costs more harm in a way that even if it provides comfort to people that, you know, for them, like psycho, psychologically, like you said, you know, human beings are wired to survive, right? [7:26] It's a part of our nature, but also at the same time, it doesn't justify the, what we call it, the impact, the negative impact of having that emotional or what we call it, cognitive comfort towards what's happening like in the real world. [7:42] Like see here, for example, in Malaysia, because of that religious pork DNA vaccine, that led to what we call it vaccine hesitancy among religious groups, right? [7:55] And again, go back to my earlier point, platform benefit from it, that we have a lot of Facebook groups, like on Facebook, and also on WhatsApp, right? [8:04] That are still, you know, still exists until today. [8:08] So some are removed, right? Because people reported it, but some still, you know, remain. Why exactly that, right? [8:15] Did the Malaysian government try to crack down? [8:18] Yes, yes. The Malaysian government, through ministry of, what we call the Ministry of Health, and also they work with the Magis Fatwa, right? [8:27] To clarify, this is like religious misinformation, right? This is like religious and also medical misinformation, and it can cause public health issue in the country still, because people want to believe what they want to believe, right? [8:40] It's motivated reasoning. So we have a psychologist here with us, motivated reasoning, even whatever, like, you know, contrasting ideas with evidence provided by people. [8:52] But if you insist on believing in that, you refuse, like, you know, you refuse that truth, because you, you know, have strong belief in your initial idea. [9:03] Because it's not, it's not really logical. I mean, it's not when we say like cognitive and logical, it's really emotionally based. [9:10] Right. [9:11] It's, you know, when we, we feel threat detection, you know, the amygdala lights up in our brain, and we are seeking comfort. [9:18] And so logic and reason don't really help change belief systems. [9:22] Right. [9:23] So if it comes to something, say like public health issue like vaccines, if you explain to them all the rationale behind it, it's not about that. [9:29] It's about, you know, group identity and feeling threat. And so, so you have to actually reach people more on that emotional level, or calm their fears, or, you know, re identify, give them other kind of different identity. [9:43] Because, you know, that's why there's initiations into different groups, like, sometimes you have to do something so extreme, like adhere to a really crazy belief, like the earth is flat, right? [9:52] And, but there are people who still believe the earth is flat, right? And their group identity might be so strong that that over, you know, that for survival, it made more sense to identify with a group rather than be alone. [10:04] So there are certain people that are more vulnerable to certain conspiracy theories. Again, I think they have value in that people should be able to think outside the box and have an alternative view. [10:14] I think that's great, you know, in terms of conspiracy theories. [10:17] But then once enough evidence has been collected, either that can, you know, support it, that's great, that that means that, okay, they were, you know, they were ahead of their time thinkers. [10:26] But when there's enough evidence to say that is not true, and they continue to adhere to it, that's when all these psychological mechanisms come in confirmation bias, you know, you only take in the information that supports your belief and not the counter information. [10:39] So, but, but in order to change beliefs, we really have to, it's not about just, you know, giving them the information. [10:45] It's really at more at these deeper, more emotional levels. [10:48] So I would say, since I'm sort of been put in the position here of defending conspiracy theory, I think, to the other panelists, I would say in the last 10 years, I think you'd probably agree with me that beliefs that you would argue are generally conspiratorial or sort of anti-liberal have gained attraction. [11:16] You know, for, to take, you know, an example that we're just seeing, it seems that the world, a lot of the world has moved away from efforts to battle climate change, right, what I would call decarbonization. [11:29] Decarbonization may not be dead, but it is certainly hurting. [11:32] And, and my question to you would be, why do you think that is? [11:39] All these nice liberal beliefs, why have they suddenly lost traction? [11:44] Is it, is it Elon Musk's fault? [11:45] Because I don't think it is. [11:46] I think that, I think that the world has actually falsified some of these beliefs. [11:51] And, and so I think that what people on the left don't see is that that's the problem that they're having in this debate. [12:03] It's not, it's not that the platforms are trying to move to the right. [12:08] I mean, you know, Elon certainly believes in free speech, which, again, does promote sometimes an ugly style of argument. [12:16] But I would say, you know, my question to you is, why has this idea that we need to decarbonize the West, you know, seemingly run aground? [12:26] And you can't just tell me, well, you can tell me whatever you're like, but it doesn't seem to me, it's just a conspiracy theory winning. [12:33] Okay. [12:34] Who wants to take that off? [12:36] I was going to say, actually, one of the things I wanted to interrupt with is, we're really getting into this debate about it being this or that. [12:42] And there's a lot in between. [12:43] So what's missing? [12:44] So we're missing everybody that's in between, because I think when we think of conspiracy theories, we think you're either a believer or you're not. [12:50] And there's a lot of people in between. [12:52] And I refer to them as conspiracy thinkers. [12:54] They're not necessarily theorists. [12:56] They're not contributing to it, but they're reading it. [12:58] And there's so much in between there. [13:00] And there's also there are liberal conspiracy theories. [13:03] So there are less of them. [13:05] Yes, definitely. [13:06] But there certainly are some. [13:07] So I think when we start to divide, that doesn't really help us to come to any sort of conclusion about this. [13:14] It just reinforces our own beliefs about people who believe in conspiracy theories or don't. [13:18] So when does a theory actually become conspiratorial? [13:21] Meaning what makes a conspiracy versus legitimate skepticism? [13:25] Well, that's it. [13:26] Yeah, that's a great question, because I think in a lot of ways we are a little bit hardwired for conspiracy. [13:34] And I think that's actually not always a bad thing. [13:37] Right. [13:38] There is this, you know, if we walked around and just believed everything, if we didn't question things, being a little bit of a skeptic is a good thing. [13:45] Right. Things happen to us in our lives. [13:47] Partners cheat. [13:48] Friends, you know, do things to us. [13:51] So there's there's, you know, it's a good thing for us to be a little bit suspicious. [13:55] It's just when that turns into a lifestyle, I guess, that it really becomes a problem. [14:00] I think the difference also is that with a conspiracy, like there's theoretically this whole underlying secret like network of people that are organizing things. [14:10] And, you know, often like and they're often government conspiracies and like the government is actually when you get closer into it, it's not as organized to be able to pull off like such a conspiracy theory that there's no leaks and nobody knows. [14:23] And everyone's coordinating like that's more illogical than not. [14:27] But but I agree with you in that it's not right or left. [14:30] I mean, there's conspiracy theories on both on both ends of the spectrum. [14:33] I think anybody goes to the extremes, you know, and they become a group of almost like cult like. [14:38] But to answer the question about the climate change, I think it's a larger issue in that people want that again, they want to survive. [14:48] They want their immediate comfort. [14:50] Thinking about something large like climate change and the future is very abstract in a lot of to a lot of people. [14:55] And so what do we want? We want our creature comforts. [14:57] You know, we want to be able to like maybe, you know, consume as much as we want and just don't worry about the trash and whatever. [15:05] Or maybe, you know, people are well aware that in the last hundred years, you know, using carbon and oil has improved living standards worldwide. [15:14] There are far fewer deaths from climate change and from climate events than there were 100 years ago. [15:20] That's actually true. It's something that most people on the left, I think, don't actually know. [15:23] But it is true. And they don't want to be lectured by people who are lecturing them from the backs of private jets. [15:30] And so if you're in the UK and you're paying 36 cents a kilowatt hour for your electricity, you suddenly wake up and say, why am I doing this? [15:40] Who is, you know, who is benefiting from this aside from, you know, a few financiers who are putting in tax subsidized windmills and Greta Thunberg, who, you know, feels good about herself. [15:52] So what I'm saying to you is that on some of the most important issues where people get tagged as conspiracy theorists, they're being perfectly logical and reasonable. [16:02] Now, I'm not going to defend, you know, some, there's a lot of conspiracy theories I'm not interested in defending, but I think on these really core, large issues, the left just doesn't see its own blinders. [16:14] I think because I research information ecosystem, and I would say that two contributing factors to it is one is that, again, I believe platforms play a role in this because, again, we go back to the point where... [16:28] Do you really think Meta cares whether its oil comes from natural or its electricity comes from natural gas or solar power? Because I don't think Meta cares about that at all. [16:35] They don't care about the content, they care about the engagement like on the platform, right? So it can be like problematic content, like we're talking about hate speech, we're talking about all various problematic content, including climate change related like content. [16:51] Platform, they care about, it's a business model. They care about making profits. So whatever content that generates a lot of engagement, good or bad, they care for those, right? [17:01] And also, Doreen, I want to answer that question. What's the differences between, was that... [17:07] Conspiracy and legitimate skepticism. [17:10] Yeah, it's evidence. For me, it's evidence, right? Legitimate skepticism often use evidence to help them understand what's going on. [17:21] But conspiracy theory often, you know, often move away from that and just focus on their personal belief. [17:28] So here, one of the key differences, I believe, would be the evidence component to it, right? [17:34] There's often a kernel of truth in these conspiracy theories. That's the problem, right? [17:39] They pick this kernel of truth and there is some evidence, like, we didn't really land on the moon. [17:43] And, you know, look, we can make these images that look like you land on the moon. [17:47] And so, like, there are certain, you know, you can pick and choose bits and then you tie it together because our brains are meaning maker machines and they want to find patterns. [17:56] Right. [17:57] We're pattern detectors. And so I don't think it's not based on some sort of evidence. [18:02] Why do people bind to conspiracy theories? [18:04] You know, I think there's really something satisfying about a conspiracy theory. [18:07] Not only do they give that narrative component, we're human beings, we like stories, but they're so satisfying because everything ties together in a way that just doesn't happen in real life. [18:18] I mean, we don't get the kind of closure that we would like to have in our everyday lives. [18:22] But in conspiracy theory, you get all of that. You get this closure. Everything has a reason behind it. Everything is organized. It all makes sense. [18:31] And I think our lives aren't like that. And if we think about, like, going back to COVID, that's such a great example of us really filling in the gaps when we didn't have knowledge. [18:40] And I think that's what we're doing a lot of times, too, with conspiracy theory, especially when it's something emergent, is that we're trying to create a narrative. [18:48] And in the case of COVID, we're trying to create a way to protect ourselves. So we did that via narrative. We actually said, well, you know, as long as I don't do what these people did, I'm safe. [18:58] So if I don't go to that super spreader event, if I don't go to that wedding or that funeral or whatever it was, you know, then I'm safe. [19:06] But then that also meant that we didn't engage in the things that make us human, right? We didn't go to that wedding. We didn't go to that funeral. [19:13] All those things that give us joy or closure or any of the motions we're used to expressing and feeling. [19:20] So instead, you know, we went for those conspiracy theories. And that's why I think that people are so attracted to these things is because they do just tie everything up in this neat little bow in a way that our lives just don't. [19:32] I think there's different. So first of all, I think there's certain people that are much more vulnerable to believe in conspiracy theories, especially groups that have a lot of uncertainty that don't have a strong sense of like self and identity. [19:45] They're looking for group affiliation. Conspiracy theories gives us a narrative that gives us a sense of control. [19:51] Group affiliation gives us dopamine pleasure. When you we start to form these concepts of in group, out group. [19:58] And when there's something that goes counter to your sort of group or your belief system, the insula cortex gets activated. [20:05] It's like almost like a feeling of disgust the other. That's why there's all this anti immigration. [20:09] It's it's and in some sense, our brain evolved in this way to protect us. [20:14] Like when you're pregnant, for example, you have a greater sense of disgust. [20:20] Smells seem stronger. I mean, I remember being pregnant and because it makes sense. [20:25] You want to protect this newborn from any contaminants, right from like actual viruses and germs. [20:31] And we've sort of our cognition, our evolved cortices have led us to then extrapolate to like other people are dangerous. [20:39] They are. And that's what a lot of people who are promoting this anti immigration, they speak at them as if they're carrying diseases. [20:45] They're othering them. But so but we get pleasure from having this group affiliation from having answers. [20:53] Ambiguity doesn't feel good. I often say to my patients who people with OCD and there's like uncertainty. [20:58] Did I lock the door? Did I not lock the door? I'm going to check. They want closure. Right. [21:01] They want that feeling of, OK, I know now. [21:04] But I make them sit with the ambiguity and sit with the uncertainty and tolerate it. [21:08] And I think that's where we can become more open. But it's hard for people. [21:13] I don't think anybody actually. Go on Alex. [21:15] I don't think anybody actually answered my question. [21:17] Why in the last 10 years, you know what I would think the other panelists think of as conspiracy theories have gained traction and why public policy around, you know, quote unquote, good public policy, elite set public policy has been so violently, violently is probably the wrong word, but so soundly rejected. [21:42] And I know, you know, it's funny, like I keep trying to talk about sort of specific events as opposed to this broad idea of conspiracy and conspiracy theory, because I think it's more interesting to to, you know, face these issues one by one. [21:57] But we haven't mentioned none of us have mentioned the biggest conspiracy theory in the US in the last couple of years, one that certainly cuts across party minds and cuts outside the US, which which, of course, the Epstein files and what's in them and what he was really doing and what it says about, again, about sort of our elite architecture. [22:23] And so, you know, that has become the object of much discussion, obviously. [22:29] I mean, here's the thing. I think you would need you would need, you know, several podcasts, right, to talk about not only Epstein, but the different conspiracy theories that are out there. Right. [22:37] But just back to your original question, who wants to take on Alex's question? [22:41] But but but but I do think we should talk about Epstein and what it means and we don't have to talk about the details, but why it has resonated so much. [22:49] And I would let me just I would say it resonated because it to me anyway, it it ties into this broader skepticism of elite behavior and whether there is an inner circle that doesn't have to be a bunch of people meeting in the woods or whatever. [23:04] But a bunch of people looking out for each other, whether it's, you know, the big banks during the 2008 financial crisis or or, you know, deciding to shut the world during covid and not really thinking about what the effects might be on school children in, you know, in Nigeria or, you know, or in the US for that matter. [23:26] And so but we're going to, you know, we're going to protect this, you know, this sort of group of older people in the US. [23:32] Yeah, I don't know what the specific the specific question is, if we were to boil it down. [23:36] But I would I would argue that it's not two things. [23:42] It's not about a particular conspiracy theory, because we can argue the facts are not about those particular things. [23:49] Pizzagate, Epstein files, you know, Tylenol causes autism, all these things and some things are true, some things are not true. [23:57] But it's it's I think it's about a systemic issue with human psychology that we are caveman brains in a modern world and we're still operating on these old operating systems that cause us to be vulnerable to these belief systems. [24:11] You know, whatever the specifics that happened at Epstein, we're interested in it. [24:15] Part of what you said is curiosity that, you know, interesting dopamine. [24:21] Oh, that's so now it's amplified by technology, by social media and all the algorithms that have. [24:27] So I don't know, to your point that you said, how come people now are believing in conspiracy theories more? [24:33] I don't know that it's increased. It might have just been amplified because of the technology that we have now. [24:40] No, no, I guess what I would say is I'm not sure I agree with you. I'm not sure people are believing in conspiracy theories more. [24:45] I think the left and sort of the elite left, you know, whether that's in academia, whether it's in journalism and, you know, these are worlds I know pretty well, very quickly calls, says that public policy changes that it does not like. [25:00] And rejection of its policies by sort of average people as measured in votes are due to conspiracy theories on the right, rather than thinking about whether or not there might be really good reasons for people to reject those policies. [25:15] And that's why I'm sort of trying to talk specifics. [25:18] I would argue that it happens on both sides of the fence. I don't think it's a left or right issue. [25:21] I do think when you're talking about conspiracy theories, the idea is that people, the powers that be, the man or whatever you want to call it, have some sort of organized, you know, system that's in place that's working against us, the non people in power. [25:39] Right. [25:40] Whether it's right or left, I don't, I don't, I think you can see it from both sides, but it's really the, maybe you want to call it the elites or the people who are controlling things, the government. [25:49] And, but whether it's true is not. [25:50] I guess what I'm saying is, do you see any truth in that? [25:52] Do I see any truth? [25:53] In that broad conception that there are people broadly in power who are not motivated by the good of the average citizen in democracy. [26:02] I mean, of course there are. [26:03] Of course there are. [26:04] Of course there are. [26:05] But there are also people that are motivated by the good. [26:07] Right. [26:08] There's both. [26:09] I mean, there's a certain kind of psychology that wants power and wants to get there for different reasons and everybody has their own, you know, incentives. [26:15] So yes, of course. [26:16] But whether the systems can be that organized to carry out such a conspiracy thing, you know, that, that is so well coordinated and nobody finds out about it. [26:26] And I find that, that I'm becoming more skeptical. [26:28] Of course. [26:29] Of course. [26:30] That like conversation to my part of the world, Southeast Asia and how exactly like people in power use conspiracy theory to, you know, influence policy. [26:39] Right. [26:40] To influence policy and to maintain status quo. [26:43] So this is one of the most famous cases, right, about Rohingya refugee in Myanmar. [26:49] Right. [26:50] So one of the dominant conspiracy theory about Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar is that the Rohingyas are trying to Islamize Buddhist Myanmar, Buddhist Southeast Asia. [27:00] So the government and the military related, what we call it, actors, they use Facebook to propagate this, this conspiracy theory. [27:10] And what happened was, is that that active propagation of conspiracy theory and hate speech against Rohingya in 2017 led to genocide of the Rohingya community. [27:23] You can see that issue like in Malaysia that we have a lot of refugees and many other surrounding countries as well from Myanmar. [27:30] And immediately after that is that they batten social media. [27:34] Right. [27:35] And this is policy. [27:36] Right. [27:37] It's a policy to start to what we call it policy that they use as a weapon to, you know, to do this horrendous thing to the Rohingya people. [27:50] Right. [27:51] And based on the idea that if we, you know, if we let them live here, then they're going to take over. [27:59] Right. [28:00] They're going to take over. [28:01] Right. [28:02] So again, the policy with banning social media to suppress anybody that, you know, question that narrative that they have, the government, the government have about the Rohingya was silenced through policy, that social media ban. [28:15] That also happened in other countries too, like in Indonesia, for example, in 2019. [28:20] This involving a protest in Papua and West Papua, where Papua students, they were harassed in Surabaya by authorities, racist abuse authorities. [28:32] And they were filming it. [28:34] Right. [28:35] They want to share it with the world. [28:37] Right. [28:38] They wanted to share with the journalists coming from all over the world, trying to cover that. [28:42] And the government at a time were saying that foreign actors contribute to this. [28:47] Like, you know, there's some hidden elites are like, you know, contribute to this, you know, to this issue protests in Papua. [28:55] What happened next is that they start to throttle social media, WhatsApp, Facebook and all social media on August 21st. [29:04] And the next day they ban it. They ban social media altogether, like in West Papua. [29:09] So journalists affected. Right. [29:11] People like you and I affected. [29:13] They could not share what happened to them. [29:15] So that's a policy that Indonesia repeatedly used a few times. [29:19] So does that mean we need social media? [29:22] Yeah, we surely need social media. Right. [29:25] But that's not what happened in Indonesia. [29:27] So, for example, in many other countries is that overreach of policy. [29:31] We need to protect democracy. We need to protect, like, you know, people's voices. Right. [29:36] And a lot of time it can be criticism towards the government and not all government are the same. [29:41] So it's something that we need to remember. [29:43] Like you were saying, it's we want free speech. [29:45] We want to know what people are really thinking. Right. [29:47] I think suppressing freedom of speech is bad. [29:50] But that also means what comes with that is you're going to have the amplification of dangerous ideas that actually harm people in the real world. [30:00] And, you know, like I think it was in Samoa where, you know, RFK went and, you know, used this problem where they had a mistake with these measles vaccines and two small children died. [30:15] And then he used that to propagate. He went to the government there and said, look, these measles vaccines are killing everybody, whatever they so they put into policy not to use it anymore. [30:24] There was a huge outbreak. All these children died. [30:27] And eventually the president came back and said, I was wrong, actually. [30:30] This and they reinstated the vaccines and it's ended the epidemic. [30:34] But false and false information can have real world deadly consequences. [30:39] That being said, suppression of free speech is can be just as dangerous. [30:44] So it's like, where is the balance between how much regulation we want to put into social media to prevent, you know, dangerous ideas from spreading, but also allowing freedom of speech because we want to know what people are thinking. [30:55] I want to know who in this room, you know, thinks the lizard people or whatever. [30:59] Like, that's important information for me to know about you. [31:02] But, you know, it's like, where do we draw the line? [31:05] And that's that's just an open question. [31:07] Alex, when do you think conspiracy theories can be dangerous? [31:10] I mean, look, they can clearly be dangerous. [31:14] They can be dangerous when they are directed at like an individual group or, yeah, or when they lead people to, I would say, take, you know, medical action that is contrary to their own interests. [31:28] But I mean, I'm I'm very much a free speech absolutist, but even I have, you know, some limits. [31:35] You know, I think, for example, that, you know, personally libeling people, you know, you should be able to sue for that. [31:42] You know, I think that, for example, the conspiracy theory around the Sandy Hook shootings in that was a school shooting in the United States more than a decade ago now, where, you know, a guy named Alex Jones, who was a podcaster repeatedly, you can you can argue over the details of what he did, but essentially allowed many guests to claim that these might be [32:05] the crisis actors that they weren't real. [32:08] I mean, I think that's a disgusting thing to do. [32:11] And, you know, and obviously psychologically harmful to the parents of the children who were really killed at Sandy Hook. [32:17] And Alex Jones, you know, has never been held accountable in the United States for that. [32:20] I mean, there's an effort to continue to hold them accountable. [32:23] And I think that that's right. [32:24] You know, but that's a civil case. [32:27] I think in general, people should not be criminally published or criminally published criminally prosecuted for speech under, you know, most circumstances, almost any circumstance. [32:38] And I think, frankly, these questions are really only going to get more complicated because AI now, you know, allows people to generate information and voices and video that are increasingly indistinguishable from reality. [32:53] So, you know, we may not have lizard brains, but we definitely have monkey brains and I don't know what we're going to do, you know, in five years when there are three years when there's very, very realistic or one year when there's very, very realistic looking video showing, you know, a murder or, you know, something happening in Ukraine that didn't happen. [33:13] I mean, we've been dependent for the last 50 or 100 years on essentially being able to believe in the voices that we hear on the radio or the images that we see on television or now on our, you know, on our phones or screens. [33:26] And I think we're moving out of that world. [33:29] I mean, I don't have a good answer for this. [33:30] I do. [33:31] I think your business is going to get even more interesting. [33:34] I mean, I think it's problematic because now, you know, our brains, we don't have a one-to-one correspondence with reality, right? [33:43] So we take in the information and we construct a reality and we all see the world in a slightly different way through our own sort of perceptive lens. [33:50] And your brain is just an information processing machine. [33:55] It doesn't know truth from fiction. [33:56] I mean, this is one of the problems. [33:58] I mean, I'm working on a book now about like, can we ever really get to truth given all of our cognitive biases and the way our brain processes information? [34:05] Now you're going to add into that just false information, you know, but the brain is seeing it as real. [34:10] And the more realistic these things become, the more difficult it's going to be. [34:15] And I don't know what the solution is, but I do think it's problematic. [34:19] Yeah. [34:20] This debate is sort of positing that people are more, I guess, affected by conspiracy theory than they have been. [34:28] Maybe I have that wrong, but that we've seen a rise of conspiracy theory. [34:32] Right. [34:33] And I'm not really, I'm not sure that that is really true. [34:37] What we have seen is a rejection of certain neoliberal policies, climate change, immigration in the U.S., you know, trans care. [34:48] And I don't think that it's necessarily that there's some conspiracy on the right to do that or that somebody is pushing any buttons. [35:00] I think that people have seen these policies up close and live them for a while and don't like them. [35:06] And so that has, and, you know, with COVID, here's, you know, here's the example that I probably know the best in the last five years. [35:15] The COVID lockdowns were really, I mean, they were very much a top-down policy. [35:21] They were spread internationally. [35:23] There was really no support in public policy for them. [35:28] In fact, for 20 years, the United States had said in the event of a, you know, moderate respiratory virus epidemic, which is what COVID was, you know, the best thing to do is essentially manage it medically and go on with life. [35:41] And in a matter of weeks, in March of 2020, that was all talks. [35:46] Wait, I'm sorry, I'm just going to disagree with you saying that it's moderate. [35:49] I work at Mount Sinai Hospital. [35:50] It's not moderate. [35:51] There was deaths. [35:52] There was tents outside in Central Park. [35:54] Yeah, and those tents were empty. [35:55] I have colleagues that died. [35:56] Those tents were empty. [35:57] There was death. [35:58] And the hospital ships were empty. [35:59] There was no... [36:00] I was in New York. [36:01] There was no... [36:02] I was in New York too. [36:03] Working in hospitals at Mount Sinai. [36:05] I can't say that in the early stages of the pandemic that it was moderate. [36:10] There were deaths. [36:11] Yeah, of course there were deaths. [36:12] A lot of deaths. [36:13] And I think that there were some, look, I think some of the mitigation efforts really did make a difference. [36:18] Okay, let me ask this then. [36:19] Who do you think conspiracy theories typically serve then? [36:23] I think they serve a lot of different people. [36:25] You know, when it is something emergent like COVID, they're serving people... [36:30] They're giving them comfort. [36:31] They're giving them something to... [36:33] They're giving a way to process the information they're getting. [36:36] Because the thing we're kind of missing in all of this is that a lot of people don't necessarily understand how things like science work. [36:46] Like they have a general idea of how science works. [36:49] And a lot of people unfortunately are working with like their third grade knowledge of science, right? [36:53] What they learned maybe even high school that was, you know, 20, 30, 40 years ago. [36:57] So are they the results, sort of conspiracy theories, are they the result of a low trust environment where people have simply lost faith in institutions and media or what is it? [37:07] It can be that, right? [37:08] It can be that, especially when, again, if we question the people in power, say for example, if you live in a state where you have authoritarian regime controlling your life, right? [37:19] And you do not trust the government and you do not trust the media, say for example, because you believe that the media provided you with information and serve as a government mouthpiece. [37:31] So you start to kind of like, oh, skeptical of everything, right? [37:34] And there's actually a lot of evidence showing that, especially groups that have been marginalized in the past, believe in conspiracy theory more. [37:40] And it's not because, you know, they have more belief or any sort of... [37:44] Because a lot of this, especially in the US, ties into African American communities. [37:48] Right. [37:49] But unfortunately, that also ties into the belief that African American communities believe more in the supernatural. [37:53] And, you know, that's been wildly discredited. [37:55] It's that they still are experiencing conspiracy, right? [38:00] You know, they're still in the middle of these things. [38:03] It's not just that these things happened in the past. [38:05] So you can talk about something like the Tuskegee experiments where a lot of African American men were experimented on for decades [38:13] and not treated for the condition that they had and then passed it on to... [38:17] There was a syphilis experiment and then passed it on to their family, to their children. [38:21] You know, there was this horrible, horrible thing that happened. [38:24] That's a past event that certainly, you know, influences people right now. [38:29] But they're also being like influenced by the fact that there's still ongoing violence towards African American communities. [38:34] What makes a good conspiracy in your opinion? [38:36] Well, I think it has to have like that kernel of truth that has to be there. [38:41] There has to be something that is already a part of the belief system, right? [38:46] So something that sounds true or at least believable. [38:48] We talk about a lot of believability when we talk about urban legends and those kind of narratives. [38:54] So there has to be that little bit of something that's true and it has to kind of tie into already existing narrative. [39:00] So there has to be something there that feels real, even if it's maybe not literally believed. [39:07] One folklorist said it, it typifies life in modern society. [39:11] That's the kind of level of belief. [39:13] Certain people are more open or more easily influenced. [39:18] And when people who are open-minded are willing to say, I'm willing to try anything and I'm willing to be skeptical. [39:25] And a lot of people in the scientific community tend to be that way. [39:28] Not all of them. You know, some have preconceived notions. [39:30] The idea is, though, can I change my belief system with counterevidence? [39:34] And there's a lot of people who are more able to do that as a personality trait versus not. [39:39] I believe in confluence or conspiracy, right? [39:42] I mean, yeah, three can keep a secret if two of them are dead. [39:46] I mean, really, like it really people cannot keep their mouths shut. [39:50] They want to brag. [39:52] It's very difficult to get them to agree on anything. [39:55] No, conspiracy, like big conspiracy theories are not there. [40:00] They're fun, but they're not real. [40:04] So I was a reporter at the New York Times for a long time, which they would like to pretend never happened. [40:08] But it did happen. [40:10] And I left because I started writing very successful spy novels. [40:14] And I realized that, like, the novels, I enjoyed them and I, you know, I enjoyed, you know, doing well on them. [40:23] But fundamentally, what I enjoyed about them the most was that as a reporter, you can never really own the world. [40:31] People always lie to you. [40:33] You know, there's a famous comment from a New York Times reporter in the 1950s that political journalism is standing in marble corridors waiting for powerful people to lie to you. [40:44] And as a novelist, you completely own your world. [40:48] Your characters, they can lie to each other or they can even lie to themselves, but they can't lie to you. [40:53] And that's why I think why so many reporters at least take a stab at writing novels. [40:58] But in the real world, you can't own everybody's thoughts and nor would you want to because you'd know what they were thinking about you, among other good reasons not to. [41:08] And so you're stuck in a world of half-truth and supposition. [41:14] And so, yeah, you want to put an organizing principle on there. [41:18] And if you're not writing a novel, the best way to do it is a conspiracy. [41:21] A conspiracy theory is sort of a novel for a non-novelist. [41:24] So what makes a good one then? [41:25] What makes a good one? [41:26] It's big. [41:27] It is unfalsifiable. [41:30] It can go on and on and on. [41:33] And it has some answers to something that you want answers to. [41:37] How should societies then address conspiracy? [41:40] I think, well, I mean, I think certain institutionalized things need to be put in place. [41:45] And I think that it's something I call structured friction and that there should always, there should, it starts also like at universities. [41:54] And, you know, because universities have gone down these rabbit holes, you know, whether it's being wokeism and all that, but they should be places where we encourage debate like this. [42:04] Right. [42:05] We encourage people with different views interacting, and we reward that. [42:09] We reward people, you know, taking in alternative views. [42:14] We reward, so even just like with the peer review process, I think the scientific method is great because it's the best thing we have so far to get away from our own personal biases. [42:24] So I, you know, I don't think there's much anyone can do to solve this problem. [42:30] And I think, I guess I probably think it's less of a problem than everyone else at the table. [42:35] But, Andrew, you probably know this history better than I do, but it strikes me, you know, so you, you look at these cults, you know, millennial cults. [42:45] And, you know, when the, when the big leader is wrong the first time, people tend to double down and maybe, maybe he gets one more shot. [42:54] But after you've predicted the end of the world twice and the world doesn't end, people tend to walk away, right? [42:59] I mean, so, so, so nothing is unfalsifiable for long, forever. [43:04] Right. [43:05] At some points, people, people will be skeptical, right? [43:08] I, I hope so. [43:10] You know, one of my favorite examples of some of the research I did during COVID was I was interviewing a nurse about, you know, giving up COVID vaccines. [43:17] And she told me this story about how she had someone come in, he did not want to get vaccinated for COVID, but he had to for work. [43:24] And he was worried about microchips. [43:26] That was his, his concern. [43:27] And so she said, you know, I probably shouldn't have done this. [43:29] And she was kind of apologetic to me. [43:31] And she said, you know, I probably shouldn't have done this, but I just showed him the bottle. [43:35] And I said, do you see right here where it says, do not shake? [43:38] And he's like, yeah. [43:39] And she says, well, I get like three or four doses out of each of these bottles. [43:42] So how would I distribute the microchips evenly if I can't shake it? [43:46] And he said, oh, I never thought about that. [43:51] And, and she's like, oh, I shouldn't have said that. [43:53] I'm like, no, that's exactly what you should have said. [43:55] Like, that's actually the perfect example of working with somebody where they are, right? [44:00] If they, if they believe that there are microchips in here, well, let me, let me take this from this, your perspective. [44:05] Like, let me show you how this works. [44:07] And that really did have an impact on him. [44:09] He actually was like, huh, that I never thought about that. [44:12] Alex, ultimately, who do you think bears the responsibility for spreading conspiracy theories? [44:18] And should they even be stopped? [44:20] No one and everyone. [44:21] And no, they shouldn't be stopped. [44:22] They shouldn't be stopped. [44:23] No, there's nowhere to stop them. [44:24] I mean, ultimately, I guess I'm still hopeful on some level that, you know, we all yell and scream and the truth does come out. [44:32] And yes, there are going to be people you can't reach. [44:34] There are going to be people who believe that we are all lizard people or whatever it might be. [44:38] But, you know, there aren't going to be enough of those people to, you know, to set public policy, I certainly hope. [44:45] Okay, look, since you mentioned the word truth, let me ask you this. [44:48] And I'd like everyone to answer the same question as well. [44:50] What conspiracy theory currently out there do you think is going to eventually be proven to be true? [44:57] Well, beyond the lab leak theory, I think it's possible that the Chinese have a strategy to send opioids and other drugs of abuse to the United States, that it's sort of a long term, that they remember the opium war very well. [45:20] I'm not saying that that's definitely true, but it wouldn't shock me if in five or 10 years we have hard evidence of that. [45:26] Okay. [45:27] Andrea, do you want to go for it? [45:30] That's a tough one. [45:33] You know, I think we're definitely going to find out that there, I think the Epstein files is going to probably be the biggest thing that comes out. [45:42] I think when we actually hopefully get more information about that, I think there might be some things in there that are maybe not going to surprise people, but then we'll have maybe more evidence of it. [45:53] But we'll see. [45:54] I think the Russian interference in the election is going to be true. [45:58] I think that, and again, this is conspiracy, so I'm open to like evidence either way, but I think that Trump has an interesting relationship with Putin and Russia, and there might be some- [46:11] Has this not been investigated to smithereens? [46:13] I mean, to almost literal smithereens? [46:15] I think that there is truth to the Russian interference in their election for sure. [46:23] That's going to come out more and more. [46:25] The other is that, you know, I think that there's manipulation from China and other nations via social media, things like TikTok, you know, to influence Americans in a negative way. [46:38] So, you know, things that they don't allow in their own country, but that are allowed here. [46:44] I'd definitely go with that second one, too. [46:45] You would? [46:46] Okay. [46:47] We agree. [46:48] See? [46:49] Common ground. [46:50] For me, I just want to start off like I do not equate conspiracy theories with real conspiracy, because I really want to focus on like the evidence to it. [47:00] But to go to your question, is there any potential real conspiracy that I believe in is that where I'm from, Malaysia, in Southeast Asian regions, we are off middle nations, we're not big nations, we're like developing regions. [47:15] So, one of the things, one of the potentially real conspiracy is that our region are being used as a battleground for greater powers, China, the U.S. [47:29] Is that even a conspiracy? [47:30] Yeah, yeah. [47:31] I mean, I think it's very interesting that three of the four of us, you know, put out theories that relate to China in some way. [47:39] And the fourth, obviously, the Epstein, I mean, but, but I don't think, I mean, I think that's, this is an example of conspiracy theories, you know, offering a glimpse into reality, right, which is that China is fast become the second most powerful, if not the most powerful country in the world, that it dominates a lot of Asia and Asian politics, and the rest of the world has to adapt to it. [48:02] And we're all trying to figure out what that means, right? [48:03] I mean, aside from AI, it's probably the biggest question of the last 10 years, at least. [48:08] We'll have to ask the Chinese for their reaction to this. [48:11] That's right. [48:12] Thank you so much. [48:13] Alex, thank you so much. [48:15] Nurianti, thanks. [48:16] Thank you so much. [48:17] Andrea and Heather, great to have you with us. [48:18] Thank you so much. [48:19] Thank you. [48:20] Thank you.