Does a US-Iran ceasefire mean the end of the war? — The Take

[0:00] Today. The U.S. steps back from the brink with Iran. Now what? [0:05] Most of the world, to be honest with you, is probably in a wait-and-see mode. [0:10] I think everybody's just holding their breath to see what actually happens. [0:14] With a meeting set for Friday in Pakistan, what are the prospects for a diplomatic in to the war? [0:20] I'm Malika Bilal and this is The Take. [0:28] Hey everyone, today would be a really great day to subscribe to The Take on your podcast app. [0:34] We ask because we want more people to get their daily news podcasts from Al Jazeera. [0:39] And leave us a review. Five Stars helps other people discover the show you already know and love. [0:46] Thank you. [0:50] I'm Imran Khan. I'm a senior presenter and senior correspondent with Al Jazeera English. [0:56] Imran, welcome back to The Take. [0:58] It has been nearly 40 days since we last spoke. [1:02] You and I sat down at the very beginning of this war. [1:05] And now here we are again. [1:07] We're speaking on Wednesday afternoon Doha time. [1:10] And like last time, you're just coming off of a shift telling the world what has happened [1:17] with this potential two-week ceasefire. [1:21] And I say potential because we're seeing breaking news lines as we speak. [1:25] But let's start with how this past day looked like from your vantage point. [1:30] Well, we started off with one of the most extraordinary social media posts [1:35] any president, any world leader has ever posted. [1:43] He was talking about destroying a civilization. [1:47] Donald Trump has posted just in the last minute or so on his social media saying, [1:53] a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. [1:57] I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. [2:01] And that was preceded by an even more extraordinary social media post. [2:07] There were swear words involved in saying, you've got to open the street, you crazy effers, [2:11] you know, and all of this. [2:13] And it was the kind of language that was being presented was almost nihilistic. [2:20] It was almost, this is a done deal. [2:23] And it felt like that Donald Trump had made the decision to bomb Iran back to the Stone [2:32] Ages, which is what he'd been talking about. [2:35] And we were at this stage where everybody, I mean, I put on a personal level, I actually, [2:41] when I read it, I screamed out loud in frustration because that's not how you do diplomacy. [2:49] That's not how you talk to nations. [2:50] That's not how you calm things down. [2:52] And it felt like that the true social post was designed for Iran to batten down the hatches [3:00] and break all ties. [3:03] And then we had this kind of, you know, extraordinary Pakistani diplomatic effort. [3:09] And then suddenly a complete about term. [3:12] We went from, you know, civilization destroying threat to actually, I've got the 10 point plan [3:21] now from Iran. [3:22] We believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate almost all of the various points [3:28] of the past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran. [3:33] He then goes on to say, we are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning a long [3:40] term peace with Iran. [3:42] And the language changed within, you know, hours as bombers were heading to Iran. [3:51] And then suddenly this breakthrough. [3:53] So it's been, we've used the term whiplash diplomacy. [3:58] It's been whiplash, just trying to keep up. [4:02] Of course, you are in Doha. [4:04] What has the reaction been from people there? [4:08] Because I know that there were strikes or at least there was some fallout that caused some injuries. [4:16] During the announcement of the ceasefire and in the, in just the aftermath here in Doha, [4:22] there were actually very loud explosions that we hadn't heard for a couple of weeks. [4:27] The sound of interceptors in the sky and some debris fell on a house, injuring four people, [4:35] including a child. [4:37] Just around the same time as, as all of this is going down and it looks like there's going [4:41] to be a ceasefire that's holding. [4:42] So what have people been feeling, doing and talking about? [4:46] Well, amongst my sort of friends in my, my circle of people that I speak to, um, there's [4:52] a sense of relief. [4:54] Um, but also there's a sense of kind of deja vu because we feel like people feel like they've [4:59] been here before, not necessarily in Doha, but we've been through an American ceasefire [5:03] before in Gaza. [5:05] We've been through, uh, an American ceasefire before that was brokered for Lebanon. [5:11] And neither of those have been particularly successful. [5:15] Um, there have been ceasefire violations every single day in those two places. [5:20] So there's a sense of relief that maybe we are turning a corner, uh, but there's a sense [5:26] of nervousness that we may well be back here. [5:29] If not in two weeks, then maybe in six months time, most of the world, to be honest with [5:34] you, is probably in a wait and see mode because Friday are the talks in Islamabad supposed to [5:40] be direct talks between the Iranians and, um, the Americans brokered by the Pakistanis. [5:48] But, uh, you know, everybody is, I think everybody's just holding their breath to see what, what [5:53] actually happens on Friday. [5:54] All right. [5:56] So, you know, Imran, you mentioned earlier a 10-point plan that Iran submitted. [6:02] What do we know about what the sides agreed to? [6:05] All three sides, the U.S., Israel, and Iran. [6:08] Well, what we know is, is very much from the Iranian side and, uh, Donald Trump saying it's [6:15] a good framework to start with. [6:17] So I think it's pretty accurate. [6:19] The 10 points outlined by state media, backed by Tehran's leadership, including U.S. commitment [6:26] to ensure no further acts of aggression, continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance [6:32] of uranium enrichment. [6:34] And then there's a compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran. [6:37] Uh, commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran, the release of Iranian funds and frozen assets [6:42] that have been held by the United States. [6:45] And again, an immediate ceasefire on all fronts, um, on approval of all of the above. [6:52] And that includes Gaza and that includes Lebanon. [6:55] Hmm. [6:56] Okay. [6:57] So there's this 10-point plan. [6:59] The U.S. has called it workable, a workable basis for negotiations. [7:04] But many of the points that are in this plan don't feel like things that the U.S. [7:08] actually will accept, including allowing further nuclear enrichment. [7:14] Well, like I say, this is a workable, um, 10-point proposal. [7:18] But all they're really agreeing on is that we are going to talk about these things. [7:24] They're not agreeing that these things are going to happen and some of it will get dropped, [7:30] some of it will change, some of the language will get softened, some of the language will [7:35] get toughened. [7:35] But as a good start, um, it's there. [7:41] And the fact that Donald Trump has said it's workable suggests that he wants to end the war, [7:48] he wants to walk away with a victory, and he wants to play the tough guy. [7:53] Now, the tough guy he's doing through his social media posts, right? [7:56] He can walk away with a victory, um, if he can get Iran to compromise on some of these [8:02] things, soften the language on some of these things, and then Iran will have to do that [8:08] as well. [8:09] It's, you know, Trump's the art of the deal, and this is not a direct quote from the art [8:12] of the deal, but it reminds me of a quote from the art of the deal. [8:17] A good deal is when one party walks away happy, a great deal is when both of them walk away [8:26] unhappy. [8:27] I don't, you know, I don't want to kind of trivialize it, but, you know, Donald Trump [8:32] is a proud dealmaker, and I'm sure that he's thinking, I can, I've got this 10-point plan, [8:38] I can get a deal. [8:39] Okay. [8:41] So then we are expecting to see how that all comes into play on Friday of this week. [8:46] We're expecting to see Mohamed Khalibaf, the Iranian Speaker of Parliament, and U.S. [8:51] Vice President J.D. [8:52] Vance in Pakistan on Friday for talks. [8:56] What do you expect? [8:57] I expect, um, given talks that I've covered in the past, speaking to diplomats, is that [9:05] there will be a initial discussion. [9:10] There are some very technical things here. [9:13] In Richmond, for example, you know, how do you deal with that? [9:18] That requires, you know, two people agreeing that they're going to do this, and then it [9:23] takes technical teams to hash up the details. [9:27] So what I'm expecting on Friday is a wide-ranging discussion from the two parties. [9:33] I'm expecting to get a statement that says we have talked, uh, we've made good progress, [9:41] there are things that we, you know, we need to work on. [9:44] It'll go down to the technical teams and the political teams. [9:48] When I say the political stuff, you know, how does the mechanism work for the Strait of [9:52] Ramuz? [9:53] Who is going to patrol it? [9:54] Is Europe going to be involved? [9:55] That kind of thing. [9:56] Those will be discussed in smaller teams with Iranian and, um, American negotiators. [10:05] If you know, this follows traditional diplomatic norms, but as we know, uh, Donald Trump's not [10:10] a big fan of that. [10:12] So, and JD Vance, uh, certainly has, is looking at the White House in, in three years time. [10:19] So he has an incentive. [10:21] He wants to be able to say, I got this deal and therefore I'm a good person to run for [10:29] president. [10:30] Well, Imran, there are definitely some loose ends here, to put it lightly, even as this [10:35] temporary ceasefire is in effect. [10:37] And so let us talk about the other instigator in this war, that is Israel. [10:42] Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has been clear that this pause doesn't include [10:46] Lebanon. [10:48] As we sat down to talk, um, news broke that 100 airstrikes, um, hit Lebanon, Beirut specifically, [10:58] coming from Israel. [10:59] The military has just launched an attack on Beirut's southern suburbs. [11:03] The assault targeted densely populated residential areas. [11:07] Lebanese security sources say the latest Israeli strikes have been the heaviest since the [11:12] start of the war. [11:14] We know that Israel has a history of hitting really hard before a ceasefire. [11:19] This could be pre-ceasefire escalation. [11:22] And we have seen in the past, the Israeli definition of a ceasefire usually doesn't involve [11:27] a complete cessation of fire. [11:29] So, what was the reception to this news in Israel? [11:35] What do we know? [11:36] Well, Israel came straight out swinging out the bat and said that Lebanon's not on the [11:41] table. [11:42] They said that Lebanon was, uh, part of the deal. [11:45] And then about an hour later, Netanyahu said no. [11:48] And now they're bombing parts of Beirut, uh, and other parts of Lebanon that have nothing [11:53] to do with Hezbollah. [11:55] The Israelis are flexing their muscles. [11:57] They're saying, we want to prove to people that we can do that. [12:00] And Donald Trump won't say anything, right? [12:03] Hmm. [12:04] They welcomed the, uh, ceasefire proposal. [12:06] They said that they were happy with what Donald Trump was saying. [12:09] They were going to back Donald Trump, but they made sure that their backyard was still [12:15] their backyard. [12:17] There is a pattern with the Israelis. [12:21] Let's go all back to the very first Gaza ceasefire. [12:25] The Gaza ceasefire, the very first one, brokered by the Qataris, was controversial because the [12:31] Qataris went with an Israeli proposal to Hamas. [12:35] Hamas agreed to it. [12:36] The Qataris went back to the Israelis and the Israelis said, okay. [12:40] And then they changed it. [12:43] And then Hamas said, but you've changed it after we agreed to it. [12:46] We agreed on all of the points. [12:48] And again, this is, you know, an Israeli, uh, a tactic, uh, and I'm, I'm unsure what [12:54] it actually gets them other than keeping the other side guessing, but we don't have a board [13:02] of peace that's negotiating, you know, a ceasefire in Gaza right now in any serious terms. [13:09] They keep talking about a ceasefire, but there's nothing on the table that either party can sign. [13:15] Israel slowed it down. [13:18] And indications are that Israel, um, wants to slow this down as well. [13:24] And Israeli opposition has already picked up on this. [13:26] Yara Lapid, uh, opposition leader has already said that this just proves, uh, that Netanyahu's [13:32] in the room sat at the table. [13:35] And it's that, you know, that great diplomatic quote that says, if you're, you know, if you're [13:40] not sat at the table, then effectively you're on the menu and they're not sat at this particular table. [13:47] So, in order to give them a voice, give themselves, you know, a, uh, a seat at this table, uh, even [13:56] if it's not physically in Islamabad, is going to be doing something which we've seen in Lebanon and maybe [14:03] even in Gaza and coming out with stronger statements, definitely I think we'll see that happen before Friday. [14:09] So let's talk more in depth about what that calculation in Israel then means for Lebanon. [14:18] Because Hezbollah today paused attacks on Israel, which I think you could say signifies that their [14:24] interest in being included in this ceasefire is cemented. [14:28] And then hours before you and I spoke, Israel unleashed what it called its most severe bombardment [14:34] of, of Lebanon since it escalated against Hezbollah last month, it's striking a hundred targets in ten [14:41] minutes all over the country. [14:43] Um, you know, I had some residents, uh, posting online on social media that the strikes were apocalyptic. [14:49] What do you think this means for the ceasefire? [14:56] It's a violent way of getting your point across. [14:59] It's a way for Israel to say, we're in control here. [15:04] Lebanon is our thing. [15:07] It's not to do with the Americans. [15:09] This is our security. [15:11] This is our war that we are fighting against Hezbollah. [15:14] But to go after non-Hezbollah targets and the Corniche on the sea where, you know, people [15:23] have been displaced are now living. [15:26] Civilians are now living. [15:28] Looks like, feels like to me, uh, collective punishment for Lebanon. [15:32] And that's what Israel does. [15:34] We've seen collective punishment happen time and time again in the occupied West Bank. [15:38] In Gaza, Israel also has the Dahir Doctrine. [15:41] You know, the Dahir Doctrine is named after the neighborhood in South Beirut, where Hezbollah, [15:48] uh, have a presence, a large presence. [15:51] And it says that if there are civilian casualties, that's not in our calculus. [15:55] We're going to attack anyway, because it's our security. [16:00] And now that has been expanded across, um, not just Beirut, but across southern Lebanon [16:06] and other areas. [16:08] And there is no security reason for you to attack central Beirut. [16:16] As far as I can see, the Israelis will justify this and they will say something that will be [16:22] along the lines of, we've hit Hezbollah targets, Hezbollah infrastructure, this, that. [16:27] It may well blow up the ceasefire if the Iranians insist that Lebanon be a part of it. [16:33] If the mediators can't get to some sort of, uh, you know, compromise. [16:39] And if Israel still continues this. [16:42] So there's where the ceasefire is going to blow up. [16:45] It's going to be because Israel is acting like a wild card. [16:47] Yeah. [16:49] So then who do you think is under the most pressure right now to hold the line [16:57] in the ceasefire to make sure this actually does hold? [17:00] Keeping the idea that this is the bombardment before the ceasefire is allowed to take effect [17:06] for Israel. [17:07] That's a really difficult question to answer because you've got [17:10] two very competing narratives. [17:14] So let's take the American one, for example. [17:16] The American Donald Trump has, you know, chopped and changed his reason for the war constantly [17:23] over the last 40 days. [17:25] At one point, it was about the uprising at the very beginning. [17:28] We need to get the Iranians to up, you know, stand up against their oppressors. [17:32] Then it was about oil. [17:33] Then it was about nuclear weapons. [17:35] And then it was about the Strait of Hormuz. [17:37] And then it was about economics. [17:39] So there's been no real reason, raison d'etre, for the Americans, no real strategy here. [17:47] Israel has been absolutely clear. [17:50] It wants the Iranian regime gone. [17:53] It wants Iran to be inward-looking, in chaos, because it's then not a threat to anybody else. [18:04] And it wants Iran to stop being able to support his proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, as they're called. [18:12] So there's two competing narratives there. [18:15] So when you ask the question, who is going to hold the line? [18:18] I think Donald Trump may well do a deal that gets him Iran. [18:23] And I think he'd be very clear about this. [18:25] More clear than any, perhaps, president has been for the U.S. [18:28] He will say to the Israelis, you come with me, support any decision I make on Iran, and I will [18:36] let you do whatever it is you need to do in southern Lebanon, in Lebanon generally, in Gaza, [18:42] and perhaps even the annexation, the full official annexation of the occupied West Bank. [18:47] And I think that'll be the deal. [18:49] And I think that's what, you know, the language that's coming out of Israel, I think that's [18:52] what they're really pushing. And that makes it easy then for Donald Trump to declare victory. [18:58] Because Iran is what people care about in the U.S. It's an unpopular war. [19:04] Israelis fighting in Lebanon, you know, that's — they don't care about that. [19:09] They care about Americans fighting on Iran. [19:13] Well, given that, my final question is, did Trump blink? [19:21] Did Iran force him into accepting a deal? [19:25] Was it Iran or was it American public opinion? [19:29] Was it the increasingly, increasingly deep distrust of Donald Trump that he's now [19:37] seeing when it comes to war? Was it his Make America Great Again base that was splitting [19:45] into pieces and then unified because of the Iran war? Was it internal pressures? [19:52] Certainly, I think it's economic pressure. And I think Iran really, really weaponized the Strait of [20:01] Hamuz and the amount of money it was costing the world. Pakistan, Indonesia, you know, India, China. [20:09] Everybody is suffering that uses that strait. They were putting pressure on Donald Trump. But that [20:15] pressure came from Iran. Iran knew that the Strait of Hamuz was the key. There is a — just as a quick aside [20:24] here — there's a war game that the State Department play, that diplomats play. It's a very serious war [20:31] game. It's a simulation. I've played it. And it's called Persian Incursion. It's a terrible title. [20:39] But you play various parts. You play the UN, you play America, you play Iran. And one of the times I [20:45] played this game, I was Iran. It was the very first thing I did. I shut down the Strait of Hamuz. Now, [20:53] what I didn't do was attack my neighbors. But I shut down the Strait of Hamuz. And so for the president [20:58] to be surprised that that happened suggests that he was either lied to or misled. And Benjamin Netanyahu, [21:08] apparently — and this is according to reporting coming out of America — was sold by Netanyahu on the [21:15] idea that this was going to be quick, that the Iranians were going to rise up, and this was going [21:21] to be an easy Venezuela-style victory. And none of that happened. [21:26] Well, Imran, I'm grateful we have you to talk to to break this down for us and give us some [21:30] of the behind-the-scenes. I appreciate your analysis. Thank you. [21:33] No, thank you.