Dems win VA redistricting battle: What it means for the midterms

[0:00] We have some breaking news tonight as CNN can now project that Virginia voters have approved [0:04] a Democratic plan to dramatically redraw the state's congressional map. 92% of the results [0:10] are in with just over 51% voting yes on the ballot measure. Now if this map is enacted it [0:16] means Democrats could win 10 out of the state's 11 congressional districts which would boost the [0:20] party at large in the fight for control of Congress. Harrington is here to join us and [0:25] Harry obviously there are a lot of questions of how this would go tonight. Tell us what we're [0:29] seeing in these numbers so far. Yeah I would just say look the yes side won. Yes they are probably [0:34] going to end up lower than the percentage that Kamala Harris won in terms of the margin but you [0:39] know what a win is a win is a win and this means a lot for Virginia and I will just note just look at [0:45] this they have basically going to gerrymander this state Rodden. They are basically going to lock [0:48] Republicans out of power in a state where Donald Trump got 46% of the vote back in 2024. House [0:54] Republicans in Virginia are only going to really end up with 9%. That is quite the imbalance that's [1:00] going on here right. Of course this is part of a larger national picture as well in terms of [1:05] redistricting and this to me is what is so interesting right. We've had all this redistricting [1:10] right it started in Texas then it was California we've done Ohio we've done North Carolina we've done [1:15] Utah but heading into tonight pre-Virginia results the net gain from this mid-decade redistricting [1:21] was really zero seats neither side gaining but now is where we are right now with the Virginia [1:28] measure passing Democrats jump out ahead they are the ones leading in mid-decade redistricting [1:33] leading right now by four seats on the strength of that yes vote however thin that margin actually is. [1:39] So Harry I mean obviously Senator Warren was just talking about six months from now the midterm [1:43] elections what could this mean for the fight for for who controls Congress here? Yeah I mean if you know [1:49] anything about the House of Representatives and you're down in Washington DC so you'll know a heck [1:52] of a lot more than I do I would just say this the power right now it's so tight right every vote is [1:57] so tight in the U.S. House of Representatives so you just take a look here and this gives you the math [2:02] of why this vote was so important. If you talk about the margin of the GOP majority in the House [2:07] post the 2024 election it was two seats two seats that's how many seats they could lose on a vote [2:12] before losing the majority. Now all of a sudden we're talking about Democrats gaining one two three [2:18] four seats four seats in Virginia the simple math here is four is greater than two without Democrats [2:25] need to pick up any more seats this would eliminate the Republican majority and instill a Democratic [2:30] majority because the margins are so tight this vote in Virginia means so very much and that's why all [2:35] that money was spent on it my goodness gracious. Yeah a ton of money Harry thank you for doing that math [2:41] for us. I know it's very hard very hard. This is why we keep you around. That's right. Harriet and [2:46] thank you for that. For more on this my political sources are here tonight. Sure Michael what's your [2:50] assessment of what's happening? I mean look I'm not happy about this what we're seeing is a gradual [2:54] destruction of institutions in our country so what happens when you create an atmosphere in an [3:00] environment where compromise no longer exists. Yeah maybe this is good for Democrats today but it but is [3:07] it good for the long run? Probably not. For four years there was an argument from my friends on the other side about [3:13] democracy. About democracy falling in darkness. Well how in the hell is this preserving democracy? And look I'm not [3:19] saying that one side over the other doesn't. Hell they all gerrymandered. It's just not a good thing at all. The American [3:24] people don't benefit from this. And as someone who resides in Virginia where you have what 40 plus percent of the [3:30] state that voted for the previous for the current president rather leaving only one Republican [3:34] congressional seat seems to be in in force of democracy and protecting the Constitution and the [3:41] preservation of these great ideals? I would think not. Well Nira I mean what do you say to that because [3:46] that was a question we asked a lot of Democrats once they launched their own redistricting efforts [3:51] after we saw what happened in Texas. But a lot of them argued to us was well if the Republicans are doing [3:57] it we're also going to do it. Yeah I mean the real problem here is that Republicans launched a mid-decade [4:03] redistricting project in Texas. Virginia came up with its results but Florida is likely to redistrict [4:10] in the next couple of days. In fact they held off for the vote I think for political reasons but they [4:16] are likely to redistrict. So at the end of the day I think Democrats and Republicans will roughly match out [4:20] to be equal. We don't know what Florida will do. I think maybe they'll be concerned that redistricting [4:26] could end up you know they could end up losing some of those seats because there could be such [4:30] a great wave. But I think the truth is that Democrats have supported a national a nationwide [4:36] ban on partisan gerrymandering. Republicans have opposed that. This was a part of legislation they [4:42] tried to pass in the last cycle. Republicans have opposed that. I believe that we should have a [4:47] nationwide ban on partisan gerrymandering. The real thing that set this all off was Donald Trump called [4:53] into Texas and asked them not by not by anyone voting but just asked the legislature to change [5:00] and in California and Virginia at least they asked the voters to weigh in. This is very different than [5:06] what happened in Texas. Voters have said they would like to move forward on this because they [5:11] recognize the states with Trump ending accountability through gerrymandering mid-decade. Scott what's your [5:17] take? Virginia had literally had the fairest maps in the nation. They had a 6-5 map, six Democrats, [5:25] five Republicans. In terms of proportional representation they had the fairest map in [5:29] the nation that was drawn by the way by an independent commission that the voters asked for [5:33] just a few years ago. Now they will have the least fair maps in the nation and I'm not surprised [5:39] that the yes vote won. They had all the money and all the lies and sometimes in politics when you got [5:43] those two things you can put something over the line. Even something as egregious as this, this whole [5:50] thing has driven Spanberger's approval ratings down into the toilet. She lied to the people of Virginia. [5:56] They had to write a ballot question that was a joke. They drew maps that were a joke. Now you're going [6:01] to have huge chunks of rural Virginia represented by five or six Democrats who all live in northern [6:07] Virginia within about 15 miles of each other. It's a complete joke. Everybody knows it and there's a [6:12] reason that all these national Democrats and all their money came into Virginia because they don't [6:17] really care about the people of Virginia. They just care about power. If we could just put that new [6:21] map back up, Neera, I want you to respond to that, but if we could just put that new map back up, [6:26] I mean that's back up that you can see obviously what the proposed districts that were on this ballot [6:31] looked like. I mean here's the thing. Unlike in Texas and other states, in Texas and Florida, [6:37] they are not putting this up to the voters, right? Republicans, I don't know, they have a lot of money in their [6:42] coffers. As far as I can see, the RNC has a lot more money than Democrats. [6:47] Who spent more here, Neera? Who spent more here, Neera? [6:49] They may not have spent more because you know you're going to lose. [6:53] The actual issue is, here's what motivated people in Virginia. The fact is that because Donald Trump [7:01] decided to do a mid-decade redistrict in Texas, people believed that in order to level the playing [7:07] field, you needed to ensure that Virginia acted. But you know what the difference is? [7:12] You know what's so ridiculous? Just to say, no, no, no. Neither one of you said a word about Texas. [7:17] Well, that's not true. I actually talked a lot about Texas, and I wasn't happy about that. [7:22] But let me just say this. The difference is Democrats have a number of seats still in the state of Texas. [7:28] Now, we can disagree on whether this made sense morally, ethically. That's a fair point. [7:34] But in Virginia, you're eliminating all but one. All but one. That's basic math. How is that at all [7:41] fair? How is that fair? You didn't give Texans the right to vote. How is that fair? You didn't put it [7:46] up to a ballot proposition. The question is, but how is it fair in Virginia to leave Republicans with [7:50] one? Would you be okay if we left Democrats with one congressional seat? You know what I would be [7:55] okay with? I would be okay with a ban on partisan gerrymandering across the country. And I wish you guys [8:01] said that when the president, I mean, so clearly wanted this to happen in Texas that it did set [8:06] off this kind of arms race. Of course it is. And now it's resulted in this. And that's my initial [8:10] point. This is not good for the country. Like, I'm a conservative. Hell yes, I want my side to do [8:15] well. I strongly believe in my principles. And I presume Neera here cares a lot about her side, [8:19] and she wants to see Democrats do well. But how in the hell is this good for democracy when both sides [8:25] believe there is no interest in incentivizing on anything? We don't have to compromise. We don't have to [8:29] figure it out. We don't have to work things out. Because you know what? We'll have one red state, [8:32] one blue state. There will be no purple states. There will be no party in the middle. How does [8:37] that move things forward when you look at the things that this country is currently struggling [8:41] with? On the economic front, the education front, health care. You have China, our greatest [8:46] adversary, that are moving leaps and bounds ahead. And we can't even govern ourselves appropriately. [8:51] This should make any person in this country happy about where we are. It's appalling. [8:55] I agree. I just think the way to have dealt with this is to have a ban on gerrymandering in any of [9:02] these states. Mid-decade redistricting is really something most, has really happened very rarely. [9:08] North Carolina did a few years ago. But we should really, most people are used to decennial. Most [9:14] states are used to doing it every decade. We should do it. And we should actually abandon all [9:18] this. And I wish Republicans had joined the Democrats. Scott, if you were a member of Congress, [9:22] would you vote to ban gerrymandering? Well, I actually am rather protective of the states [9:28] making these decisions. That's a no. I don't have, I don't really have a problem with states [9:33] making decisions about this. What I have a problem with in this case, look, Texas did what they did. [9:38] They had a right to do it. Virginia did what they did. What I have a problem with in Virginia is [9:42] you had a fair map and you also had an independent commission draw it. And you also had the governor, [9:48] new governor, tell the people of Virginia during her campaign she wasn't going to do it. [9:53] So this whole thing was built on lies. And the ballot question, if you read it, [9:57] was a total joke. You showed the map of the districts. They're a complete joke. And so I [10:01] think what they've done is they've basically disenfranchised. [10:04] It's like against democracy. It's against democracy to argue you're against the voters. [10:08] I'm a Republican voter in Virginia. I would never do this to Democrats. I don't agree with [10:14] Democrats on a whole lot of issues. There's no way I would do this. You disagree with it on a [10:19] moral front and you just, on a principal front. Of course. But politically, I mean, [10:24] if you're Mike Johnson tonight and you're looking at this, how does that make you feel about November? [10:28] I mean, look, you'd be pretty pissed off, but I'll tell you this, other Republican states are going [10:33] to do the same thing. And Democrats should not be surprised if there's one congressional district [10:37] or if there's zero congressional districts, because that is where we are now.