Dems' election odds improving? A report from rural NC

[0:00] Everywhere there's a sprout, that's where they'll produce a vine. [0:06] Ed Weinbarger is a farmer and a chef, [0:08] with family ties to this North Carolina land dating back 200 years. [0:13] Everywhere you look, key staples for his catering business, [0:17] the hillside garlic patch, tree limbs stacked along the stream, [0:22] a brilliant nursery for shiitake mushrooms. [0:25] I got to the gym this morning, but this is good. [0:28] A visitor put to work. [0:30] Early spring, the best time to borrow the fingerling potatoes. [0:33] The fall harvest will be not long before the midterm election, [0:37] and North Carolina has a Senate seat within reach for the Democrats, [0:41] plus maybe, just maybe, a house seat or two. [0:44] But Weinbarger sees the party as still missing a critical ingredient. [0:49] This right here, getting it under your fingernails. [0:53] Democrats have a hard time with this. [0:56] They can't show a connection to the working class. [1:00] Rural America is synonymous with Trump country, [1:03] but Weinbarger says Trump policies are making a tough economy worse. [1:06] First tariffs, now Iran. [1:08] Everything's expensive. [1:11] Inflation hasn't stopped. [1:13] It's continuing for supplies and now for fuel. [1:17] Now we're at war. [1:18] Transportation costs, fuel, machinery, equipment, labor, amendments, fertilizers, all more expensive. [1:29] North Carolina's success could help the Democrats make a good midterm year great, [1:34] but it would require reversing five decades of rural decline. [1:38] Take a look. [1:40] Here are 1,322 counties where at least 75 percent of the population live in rural areas. [1:45] Fifty years ago, 1976, Jimmy Carter carried 798 of the 1,322. [1:52] See all that blue? [1:53] And won 54 percent of the vote in them. [1:56] In 2000, though, Al Gore carried only 213 of the 1,322. [2:01] His share of the vote in rural counties dropped to 37 percent. [2:05] And in 2024, a rural red tsunami. [2:09] Kamala Harris won just 79 of the 1,322 counties and just 25 percent of their votes. [2:16] The then and now is stunning. [2:21] Here in North Carolina, that rural shift from blue to red looks like this. [2:26] It's been 11 years since North Carolina was represented by a Democrat in the U.S. Senate. [2:31] And the state's House delegation in Washington right now? [2:34] Just four Democrats and 10 Republicans. [2:37] There's a lot of anger with the voting base. [2:42] And America has traditionally gone after the angry candidate. [2:46] They feel represented by that anger. [2:48] Democrats need to do more to connect to rural America. [2:52] Again, be skeptical. [2:54] But even a modest rural rebound for the Democrats would greatly expand their map, [2:58] their targets, the possibilities in this critical midterm year. [3:01] House races here in North Carolina, for example, and in places like Texas, Montana, Iowa, and elsewhere. [3:08] And the party is hoping to find Senate pickups, U.S. Senate pickups. [3:12] Where would they look? [3:13] Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Montana, Iowa, and right here in North Carolina. [3:19] Marshall is along the French Broad River in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. [3:25] Hurricane Helene's floodwaters rose above this bridge and pummeled the town. [3:30] 18 months later, yes, a lot of progress. [3:33] This was the American Legion post during our visit nine months ago. [3:37] Rebuilt with a patriotic new mural now. [3:40] Sounds and signs of progress, but also lingering scars, lingering frustration. [3:46] It still feels slow. [3:47] It still feels like we haven't seen the government step in in ways that are meaningful. [3:53] Tourism is the economy here. [3:57] Right here. [3:58] Lean back. [3:59] We're good to go. [4:00] See ya. [4:03] Corey Hampton's outdoor adventure company saw sales drop 40 percent last summer. [4:07] Clear for guide. [4:08] Hikers and campers, rafters, and zip liners thought it best, or safest, to stay away. [4:14] We all knew that that first season after the storm was going to be difficult, but we're hoping that this is the turning point for us. [4:23] But now, a new worry. [4:25] That folks are just not going to be as willing to travel, and on top of everything else that's happened to us. [4:30] You drive a lot if you live in a rural place like Marshall, or if you want to get to and from a place like this for a family vacation. [4:38] The price of gas matters, especially if things are already tight. [4:43] It's just terrifying, you know. [4:45] We're helping a hundred of our staff put food on the table, and even they're thinking about, can I afford a house? [4:51] Can I afford health care? [4:53] Can I get to work? [4:55] I mean, that's going to make it even harder for us this season. [5:00] They say looks can be deceiving, and they say one picture is worth a thousand words. [5:07] So which is this? [5:08] A recent Monday night in Tiny Marshall, a packed fish fry for a local farmer running for Congress. [5:13] Madison County voted 61% for Trump. [5:16] Jamie Egger is a Democrat. [5:19] We're all thinking about our garden this spring, which is something that mountain Democrats do is grow a garden. [5:25] Josh Kopis owns this hotel and restaurant. [5:28] He went to college with Egger, works his real magic in a ceramic studio on the outskirts of town. [5:34] Why do Democrats struggle so much here? [5:36] I think we lost our way. [5:39] I don't know. [5:40] Like, we got caught up doing something that didn't connect with the people in rural America, [5:46] and that's why we need to run candidates like Jamie, because he is of this place. [5:51] Like, he is our people. [5:54] So, I don't think it's a lost cause. [5:56] The smart money and recent history says be skeptical when Democrats talk up their hopes here in North Carolina, [6:04] especially in this congressional district. [6:06] Donald Trump won North Carolina 11 with 54% of the vote in 2024. [6:11] And the Republican House incumbent, Chuck Edwards, ran even stronger, winning 57%. [6:17] But pain at the pump is just one sign of tougher times for Republicans. [6:22] Even in these rural areas, they have dominated in the decade of Trump. [6:26] I get it. [6:27] You know, I know why people, like, voted for Trump around here, because, you know, everyone [6:31] feels like it's stacked against them. [6:33] But that hasn't changed. [6:34] Like, that, I don't think any of those people are like, oh, we're doing better now than we [6:40] were, because we're not. [6:41] 18 months of struggle and remarkable resilience. [6:47] Seven months more until we learn if all the rebuilding here extends to the Democrats. [6:53] John, you were in North Carolina. [6:58] What did the results in Georgia last night say about voters in rural areas? [7:02] So, Anderson, once again, the margins. [7:04] Democrats lost that race. [7:05] You see right here, Clayton Fuller will be the next Republican congressman in Marjorie [7:09] Taylor Greene's old district. [7:10] So, Republicans say, we win. [7:12] Why do Democrats say this is good for them? [7:15] Well, look at the margin. [7:16] You say that's a big race, right? [7:17] He wins there by 11 points. [7:19] But look at this. [7:20] Marjorie Taylor Greene won this district just two years ago by 29 points. [7:24] And this is part of a pattern in Georgia, in New Jersey, everywhere in 2025 and 2026 [7:30] as we watch elections. [7:31] Last night in a Wisconsin State Supreme Court race as well. [7:34] A mayoral race in Waukesha, Wisconsin. [7:36] Here's just a few of them. [7:37] Kamala Harris wins Virginia by six points. [7:39] Remember, Abigail Spenberger wins the governor's race by 16. [7:42] In New Jersey, it was Harris six. [7:44] Mikey Sherrill wins by 14. [7:46] In a Tennessee special election, yes, the Republican won. [7:49] But the previous Republican had won by more than twice that. [7:52] In Marjorie Taylor Greene's district, as I said, she had won by nearly 30. [7:55] The new Republican wins by 12. [7:57] So, what that tells Democrats, not just in rural America, but in a lot of places where [8:01] they lost last time by six points, eight points, 10 points, maybe even 12 points. [8:05] What six months ago would have been impossible, three months ago was improbable. [8:10] Now, especially in these rural areas, because of the rising gas prices, becomes possible. [8:15] Possible. [8:16] So, Democrats have more opportunities. [8:17] Doesn't mean they're going to win in places like North Carolina 11. [8:20] Doesn't mean they're going to win in Tennessee. [8:21] Doesn't mean they're going to win in Iowa. [8:22] But places where six months or a year ago they thought impossible, now they think maybe. [8:27] nude. [8:28] . [8:29] . [8:34] . [8:38] . [8:39] .