Debate: Does the ceasefire extension mean Trump's running low on options?

[0:00] The fact that the threat of a resumption of hostilities wasn't enough for them to [0:05] scurry something together, what does that tell you about how much leverage the United States has [0:11] by continuing to use force as a threat here? That's a great question. I think they called [0:16] his bluff. I think that the Iranians figured out that the whole taco thing, the whole Trump always [0:23] chickens out. You know, they estimated that his bluster, at first it shocked them and frightened [0:30] them. And then the more they, I guess, became familiar with his MO, the more they saw that he [0:37] was all talk. And that I think that the other big point is Trump wildly underestimated the Iranians [0:47] capacity to suffer. I really think that he thought that by bombing and causing widespread devastation [0:55] and all the rest of it, that he could leverage them into a negotiation. Instead, he watched them [1:02] martyr themselves and strengthen their hand. Yeah, I don't know what's going on behind closed doors [1:08] in Iran by any means. But I suspect that Trump probably does and the Israelis probably do. [1:16] And they've come to the conclusion, and that's why they pulled off yesterday, come to the conclusion [1:21] that it was disastrous to continue. I mean, it's also surprising that they would even schedule [1:28] or even get to the point where they were committing the vice president to go to Pakistan when they [1:34] hadn't even gotten sign-off on broad concepts of a deal. Well, I think that they were obviously [1:41] hopeful. And, you know, to Haralda's point, we don't actually know what's going on behind the [1:44] scenes. I think it's fair to say that part of this is because they are, in fact, fractured. And then, [1:48] of course, makes complete and total sense, given the situation on the ground, that we would doubt [1:52] that there is fractures within their leadership to the extent that it exists is kind of naive to me. [1:58] I think, you know, you want to make sure that you're doing a lasting piece. Yesterday, you had [2:03] brought up, I think it was a Reuters piece that suggested that international leaders were kind [2:09] of worried about whether or not the president was going to lead for a headline and just get something [2:12] done. This shows, again, quite the opposite, that he's being thoughtful and not wanting to just grab a [2:18] headline and is, in fact, willing to take on a political cost so that we can get to a point where [2:22] we have a lasting case. I'm not sure that's what this shows, because it would be one thing if [2:26] the reporting indicated that we were close to something. Headline, a lasting deal. It suggests [2:33] that we weren't close to any of those things. We couldn't get them to even respond to broad strokes. [2:41] You're willing to talk about your nuclear deal. Like, that doesn't suggest that we were close to [2:47] anything at all. No, and we shouldn't be in this war at all. These last seven weeks have been horrible. [2:53] For the United States of America and for people all across the globe. The reality is we've spent [2:57] $60 billion on this war. It's going to be another billion or two by the time this show happens again [3:03] tomorrow. And the cost has been real and has been detrimental. We've had over a dozen service members [3:08] who have died, hundreds who have been wounded. In my community, in the constituents that I represent, [3:12] they're feeling this at the gas pump in the grocery store. People are deciding whether or not [3:17] they're going to be able to afford the medicine or the rent. The consequences have been dire. [3:22] And this administration has done this because we have a wannabe dictator as president of the United [3:26] States. And again, we are in a war that was completely unnecessary. It is. It's an authoritarian, [3:31] an elected authoritarian who is operating as a dictator who thought that he could kill, [3:35] who thought that he could kill, destroy, and bomb an entire nation into submission. [3:40] And that isn't what has happened. I think it's fair and reasonable. I've said this before, [3:45] like to debate the actual issues here and whether or not we think that this was the right move, [3:50] but to immediately go to this lazy talking point that is used by the left all the time, [3:55] just screaming about a dictator in chief. It's not a serious conversation. [4:00] If you say that you're serious about the issues that people are facing, talk about the policies. [4:05] It is serious. Let's talk about the policies. I'm glad you mentioned that. Let's talk about the [4:11] big ugly bill that cost those billions of dollars. I think it is fair to say, I mean, [4:15] in this moment, this war is what's on the agenda. And it is a test for President Trump. It's a test [4:21] for the United States. One of the interesting pieces of reporting also that to come out is that [4:26] our stockpiles of weapons are being depleted. 45% of our precision strike weapons expended. 50% of our [4:36] THAAD. These are missiles that intercept ballistic missiles have been expended. Patriot batteries, 50% [4:42] expended. Tomahawk missiles, 30% expended. It's going to take years to rebuild these stockpiles. And [4:49] the concern is that if there is another conflict, that we're not going to be ready. So that's the [4:55] other thing that's on the horizon here for us. I think that it's a very rational concern because [5:01] there might be a conflict in a completely different area of the world that we haven't [5:06] even anticipated yet. We're worried about a peer conflict with China that we might not have enough [5:12] weapons to support. What I think we need to do a better job at, and by the way, I think this war is [5:19] a disaster. We'll talk about the messaging later. But we do not have a dictator. I'm sorry. We have [5:26] a very unsuccessful dictator. If we have a dictator, he's checked continually all the time by his own [5:31] Congress, by his own courts, by other countries and our allies. There is no conversation about [5:37] the Iranian dictatorship and torturing their own people. I mean, I would just be curious to hear [5:43] what you have to say about that. I appreciate that. So let's be very clear. This Congress has [5:47] capitulated to what this administration has wanted at every turn from the big, ugly bill to cutting [5:53] Medicaid to making it harder for people to live. And I'm not saying that Iran is a perfect nation. [5:58] What I'm saying is this president ran. Can we talk about this? Because we said we had a president [6:04] who said he didn't want to have forever wars. He said he didn't want to have forever wars. And yet [6:09] here we are in one. $60 billion. We have people in this administration as well as Congress people, [6:14] Democrats and Republicans who are making billions. Just to add layers to this, the president is now [6:19] putting on the table a bailout of the UAE. Really? In the middle of a war that is incredibly [6:27] unpopular, that has no end in sight. How is that going to work for the American people? We don't know [6:34] because we're preliminarily talking about this. It's not an official proposal. This is something that [6:38] they're saying. It could potentially be a good idea depending on how it actually works. To lend money to [6:43] the UAE? In this context, depending on the specifics. They walk in golden slippers. [6:50] So we do this with other nations pretty frequently or semi-frequently. Can I say one other thing about [6:56] the you started the piece with the depletion of our stockpiles. How do we know what the depletion of [7:05] our stockpiles are? How is it that all of a sudden every news outlet in the country got the depletion of [7:11] our stockpiles? Who benefits when there's fear over the depletion of stockpiles? Defense contractors [7:18] benefit. In the same way oil companies benefit when price of oil goes up. You can't divorce yourself from the, [7:25] you know, everybody is not all, you know, doopity-doo and rally behind the flag and bad guys that get the, [7:35] you know, there are those with self-serving nefarious motivations. You don't think we actually have a [7:42] depletion? It's an interesting question. I have covered war, 11 assignments in Afghanistan, 11 in Iraq. [7:51] I've seen lots of armaments be depleted over time. You have a, there is a process where there is [8:00] constant replenishment. And to think that we could, we can get a depletion of our stockpiles [8:08] fighting a third-rate country like Iran and this was the army we were going to take against China [8:14] and Russia. I think it's preposterous. That's scary. Yeah. I mean, I, I actually, I hear your [8:22] skepticism, but I do think that there were some unique aspects of this particular conflict that [8:29] would make it possible or even plausible, even if you are skeptical, because Iran had very cheap drones [8:35] that we were using very expensive weapons to shoot down. And that, that, that imbalance is pretty [8:43] unique to this conflict. And it also, I think, suggests that that's a problem that we need to [8:48] resolve. And I think that's one of the things that has been revealed by this. As far as I know, [8:52] we've lost four, we lost three F-35s. We lost one F-18. I don't know, I guess a couple of accidents [9:02] here and there. Yeah. In, in terms of what our, our armed forces have expended, we have a vast [9:09] amount of munitions. Yeah. You're missing Ukraine as well. But here's what I'll say. I just want to say, [9:13] like, you mentioned the policy. Those are policy choices. Those are the choices that when we say, [9:18] are we going to, I'm sorry, when you, the UAE and we bail them out, that is money that is going not [9:24] into the United States, but across the U.S. And that is what Justin is saying in terms of when his folks [9:29] are saying, I thought you were going to put America first and my pocketbook is getting smaller [9:34] and smaller and tighter and tighter. And then the UAE and their golden slippers are getting richer and [9:39] richer. And, and, and, and to Geraldo's point, we know that defense contractors make millions and [9:47] billions of dollars with federal contracts. And yet again, that actually is not going into the [9:53] everyday American pocket. So those are actually policy decisions that this, this administration has [9:57] to account for.