Could the EU's alliance with Israel soon change? — Inside Story

[0:00] Israel's alliance with the European Union is under mounting pressure. [0:05] Behind the shift demands to suspend the main agreement underpinning their close relations. [0:10] But their ties survived Israel's war on Gaza. [0:13] So why the difficulties now? [0:16] This is Inside Story. [0:33] Hello again, I'm James Bayes. [0:35] Israel's alliance with the European Union is among its most important. [0:39] But it's coming under pressure not seen before from some of its staunchest allies [0:44] as the Iran war causes huge political difficulties. [0:48] Brussels has condemned Israel's invasion of Lebanon. [0:52] The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank are de facto annexation. [0:59] The Italian leader, Giorgia Maloney, has scrapped a defence cooperation pact with Israel. [1:04] And a petition with more than a million signatures will formally trigger a review [1:09] of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, a vital trade framework. [1:13] Their alliance withstood Israel's war on Gaza, which killed more than 72,000 Palestinians. [1:20] But it seems to be on rockier ground now. [1:23] So why is this happening? [1:24] Is it a long-term shift in relations? [1:26] We'll discuss all of this with our panel of guests. [1:29] But first, this report from Imran Ola Khan. [1:31] In Beijing on Tuesday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez paid particular attention to Israel [1:38] in front of his host Chinese leader, Xi Jinping. [1:40] What we want is for international legality to be respected, for example, in the Middle East. [1:47] Today, international legality is fundamentally being violated by one country, which is the government of Israel. [1:53] There is also an absolutely illegal response from the Iranian regime [1:56] regarding a war that we have classified from the very beginning as a mistake. [2:01] Today, international legality is being trampled on. [2:06] And not only that, but those of us who raise our voices against those governments that are violating international law [2:12] find ourselves contradictorily and paradoxically subjected to threats from those countries. [2:18] In response to what Sanchez called the genocide in Gaza, [2:22] his government approved an embargo on selling arms to Israel in October. [2:25] Since then, Israel's attacks have expanded beyond occupied Palestine, to Iran and Lebanon. [2:36] The war has caused major global energy supply disruptions. [2:40] And now more EU countries are taking action. [2:43] Italy has suspended a defense cooperation agreement with Israel [2:47] after accusing Israeli forces of firing at a convoy of Italian UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. [2:52] Our alignment is European and Western. [2:57] I adhere to that position, which I also fully share. [3:00] Then, when there are things we do not agree with, we act accordingly. [3:04] The government, for example, taking into account the current situation we are experiencing, [3:09] has decided to suspend the automatic renewal of the defense agreement with Israel. [3:14] The European Union and Israel have extensive trade relations under the EU-Israel Association Agreement. [3:20] That agreement took effect in 2000 and structures political dialogue and economic cooperation. [3:26] Currently, the EU is Israel's largest trading partner, [3:30] with total trade in goods and services reaching about $50 billion. [3:34] EU imports about $18.7 billion in goods from Israel. [3:38] That includes machinery and chemicals. [3:40] A civil petition calling for the full suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement [3:45] has currently reached more than 1 million signatures. [3:48] It accuses Israel of war crimes. [3:50] That has triggered the European Parliament to hold a hearing on the campaign. [3:55] Israel has also recently lost one of its staunchest supporters in Europe, [3:59] after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban lost elections on Sunday. [4:03] Under Orban, Budapest had frequently used its veto power in Brussels to block criticism of Israel. [4:10] Orban even took action to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, [4:13] after it issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. [4:17] But Europe is Israel's primary market for defense exports, [4:22] which could lead it to seek middle ground with some of its oldest allies. [4:27] I'm Rana Lachan, Al Jazeera, for Inside Story. [4:30] Well, let's discuss all this further with our guests who are joining us today on Inside Story. [4:38] And from Brussels, we have Barry Andrews, a member of the EU Parliament. [4:44] From Cape Town in South Africa, Sven-Kun von Burgstorf, [4:48] former EU ambassador to the Occupied Palestinian Territories. [4:52] And also in Brussels, Yves Geddy, [4:54] director of the European Institutions Office at Amnesty International. [4:58] Thank you, all three of you, for joining us. [5:01] Let me start with you, Barry. [5:02] Why does Israel care, or why should Israel care, what the EU thinks? [5:11] Well, thanks for having me on your programme. [5:14] I have to say that we remind ourselves that the European Union is Israel's number one trading partner. [5:22] And so it is very relevant for Israelis. [5:26] And of course, there's a very close security and fence partnership between the EU and Israel, [5:32] whatever you want to say about that. [5:35] So the links are very, very strong. [5:37] And there's, of course, very strong historical, social and cultural links between the European Union and Israel. [5:44] And so from time to time when, as I see it, [5:47] the European Union takes a more principled position on the relationship [5:52] and takes more seriously the terms that have been set out and legal agreements around that relationship, [5:59] Israel really takes that seriously. [6:01] But unfortunately, Europe taking those principled positions has been all too rare [6:07] and not really robust enough to create the changes that are absolutely necessary [6:13] if we're serious about EU values, if we're serious about the protection of international law, [6:19] and if we're serious about Palestinians' right to self-determination. [6:22] So I think it is a very, very important relationship. [6:26] But unfortunately, we haven't seen that principled approach often enough. [6:31] So, Eve, the EU has real leverage, both economically and diplomatically, if it decides to use it. [6:43] Indeed, as Israel's biggest trading partner and as also a partner [6:48] which has its basis for its foreign policy based on a clear human rights obligation, [6:53] the EU has massive leverage on Israel, which it can and which we believe it finally must use [6:59] to help have a permanent end at Israel's genocide and Palestinians in Gaza [7:06] and also violations against Palestinians in the whole occupied territory [7:10] and also the recent violations we've seen against Lebanon and other infringements of international law. [7:16] I think we've seen the recent death penalty law, which Israel has applied, [7:20] which will de facto only apply exclusively to Palestinians, [7:24] has been a clear red line for EU member states in recent time. [7:27] So we think it's really, this is the moment which this preferential agreement, [7:32] this access to the EU market, which also investment and support and education, [7:38] this has to come to an end. [7:39] It has to come to an end, not just because of the EU's human rights obligations, [7:43] because of the text of the agreement itself, [7:46] which requires that these relations and cooperation are based on human rights. [7:50] Sven, I mean, what would you say is the main issue here with regard to Israel, [7:58] which seems to now be waging a continual war? [8:02] It doesn't ever seem to stop fighting on numerous fronts. [8:05] And of course, we have what many describe as the Greater Israel Project. [8:12] Yes, thanks, James, for having me. [8:14] The basic problem is that Mr. Netanyahu and his right-wing annexationist government [8:21] doesn't care about international law and doesn't care about the EU. [8:26] Actually, they think they can do what they want to pursue their political objectives. [8:31] And Mr. Netanyahu's objectives are first and foremost to stay in power. [8:34] And for that, he actually is coinciding his policies with his annexationist right-wing partners [8:45] who dream of a greater Israel. [8:48] Daniel Levy has recently published a very interesting article in The Guardian on this one. [8:53] And if you follow this line of reasoning, it's actually Netanyahu playing Trump [9:01] and any U.S. president over the past 20 years by trying to realize that vision of an Israel [9:09] which is indispensable for the Middle East as the sole dominant power fully supported by the U.S. [9:19] The problem we have in Europe is that our DNA is very much premised on a firm anchoring [9:27] to human rights and international law. [9:29] And if one of our partners completely disregards this, then we are at a loss if we don't act [9:38] with robust measures. [9:40] And that's the key issue right now. [9:42] And that's the reason why in our statement, which you just issued, 350 foreign ambassadors, [9:47] ministers and commissioners, that we call the EU to act, to act by suspending the agreement [9:54] with Israel, by halting all trade and military goods, and by stopping Israel's participation [10:01] in all EU programmes. [10:03] I can elaborate on that in more detail if need be. [10:07] We'll ask you to do that a little later. [10:09] Barry, I know you've been to Israel-Palestine recently. [10:14] Would you agree with Sven's comments there that Israel does not actually follow any international [10:21] law? [10:22] It doesn't think it has to. [10:24] And that the EU hasn't really pulled it up on it, on not following international law? [10:32] I don't believe that Israel takes seriously international law. [10:36] And in fact, I think President von der Leyen herself even indicated that Europe shouldn't [10:43] be the custodian of an international law that nobody else is protecting, which is really, [10:49] really worrying development. [10:51] One thing I would take issue with is whether Israel takes Europe seriously. [10:57] I think Israel does take Europe seriously, but only when Europe takes a principled position. [11:02] And this is unfortunately extremely rare. [11:05] But we see from the occasions when Europe does take a principled position that it has an effect. [11:11] So, for example, when the 17 member states in the Foreign Affairs Council concluded that [11:19] Article 2 of the association agreement between EU and Israel had in fact been breached, that [11:26] had a very sobering effect on Israel. [11:28] When President von der Leyen, in her State of the Union speech last September, said that [11:34] what was happening in Gaza was a man-made famine, I really believe that the Israeli government [11:41] sat up straight and took notice of this. [11:43] And when the German government placed restrictions on the export of military equipment, we had [11:48] two conservative German politicians explicitly condemning Israel for human rights abuses. [11:56] That has an effect. [11:58] And soon after, there was a ceasefire. [12:01] Now, we can attribute that ceasefire to any number of things. [12:05] But it's my firm belief that when President von der Leyen and Chancellor Mertz took strong [12:10] positions on these issues, it had an impact in Israel. [12:14] And so that's why we don't give up. [12:16] And that's why we are heartened by the fact that the Italian government has suspended its [12:20] defence cooperation agreement. [12:22] It's why we're heartened by the 350 ambassadors and ministers just referred to just now have [12:31] submitted this letter and the one million signatures that have been achieved for an EU petition, [12:38] which will force President von der Leyen to respond to concerns of EU citizens about the [12:43] protection of international law. [12:45] So I do believe Europe has a very critical role to play. [12:48] And I do believe that Israel pays attention. [12:51] Eve, let's go into more depth about the various tools that the EU could use here. [12:57] I mean, it could impose sanctions on individuals. [13:00] It could impose travel bans. [13:03] And as we've heard, there's this EU-Israel Association Agreement, part of which is a trade [13:08] agreement, but it's widened that. [13:11] Isn't the problem with the whole system? [13:14] Some would say it's the benefit of the whole system, but it's 27 countries. [13:18] And for most of these things, they have to act in a unanimous manner. [13:22] So it's very hard to actually take any action. [13:25] Well, indeed, I mean, a lot of the EU's strength has been its coming together of 27 states. [13:33] There are certain parts of the agreement which can only be suspended with the unanimity, [13:38] with 27 states agreeing. [13:41] But there's other parts which only require what is called a qualified majority vote. [13:46] And that's a certain portion. [13:47] The majority of EU member states representing a majority of EU citizens. [13:52] Sorry to stop you there, Eve. [13:53] It gets very confusing and our viewers won't be following all of them, the qualified majority voting. [14:01] It's a complex formula. [14:02] Very quickly explain that to us, for us, if you could. [14:06] I will. [14:07] So what we need in order to suspend the trade element of the association agreement, we just [14:12] need a majority of member states representing a majority of EU citizens to come out in favour. [14:17] We have a foreign affairs council happening on the 21st of April, another on the 11th of May. [14:23] And for us, these will be key for a decision to be made. [14:28] So, Sven, that sounds simple. [14:30] But there have been countries in the European Union who have been asking for that since the [14:37] early part of the Gaza war, have they not? [14:39] Yes, indeed. [14:42] And, I mean, Spain, Slovenia, Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, increasingly as well, [14:49] have recalled to the Commission and the High Representative that we need to act as an EU, [14:57] as a collective force. [14:59] Let me just say to Eva, she rightly said that when it comes to trade measures or development [15:05] on cooperation and research funding measures, we can decide by qualified majority, we don't [15:12] need all 27. [15:13] But when it comes to foreign policy and security sanctions, for instance, extending visa bans [15:20] or applying restrictive measures to individuals like Ben-Gvirens, Modric, these extremist ministers, [15:26] then we need, indeed, all 27. [15:29] And so far, Hungary under Orbán has prevented us from acting. [15:33] And Italy and Germany, plus a couple of other countries, including Slovakia and Austria and [15:41] also Hungary, have prevented us from acting with qualified majority. [15:45] My hope is that the appetite for sanctions is growing. [15:50] People are aware that the European populace at large is very much against the policy of ignoring [15:58] the abhorrent human rights violations and international law violations by Israel. [16:03] And want the EU to act. [16:05] And that's the reason why, like Barry said, today we are celebrating the one million threshold [16:10] signature. [16:10] And there was a meeting in the European Parliament today on that matter. [16:15] So there is a coinciding movement from the populace of Europe at large and more and more [16:22] member states. [16:23] And the latest was Mrs. Meloni yesterday to say enough is enough. [16:26] We have to act against Israel. [16:28] The question is, is the commission, is Madame Callas taking the initiative to bring it to [16:34] the discussion? [16:35] And as you know, we had this discussion in July and September last year, when Madame Callas [16:41] presented a 10-point paper with sanctions. [16:45] It wasn't even brought to a vote because of the belief that it wouldn't pass. [16:49] Madame von der Leyen, in her State of the Union address in September 25, mentioned a number [16:54] of issues. [16:55] And except for suspending few payments to Israel, she didn't move at all and didn't bring it [17:01] to the discussion with the member states. [17:03] My question is, are we now ready to move forward? [17:08] And is the commission ready as well to take its own measures? [17:11] We haven't mentioned this yet, James. [17:13] The EU could actually suspend, in its own right, as the executive body being responsible [17:21] for payment, could actually suspend all payments to Israeli public and private entities benefiting [17:30] from EU research programmes without going for a council decision. [17:34] We have done that with Russia. [17:36] We can do it with Israel. [17:38] Barry, I mean, mention there of Ursula von der Leyen, who is the president of the European [17:43] Commission, and Kaya Kalas, who is the high representative, effectively Europe's foreign minister. [17:49] She was speaking just recently in the UN Security Council about breaches of international law. [17:56] She said the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East were examples. [18:00] And then she named Russia and she named Iran. [18:04] Somehow there was a little bit of a mission. [18:06] She did not name and shame the US or Israel. [18:10] This is the problem, isn't it? [18:11] It certainly is, and it's what completely undermines the credibility of Europe's voice [18:19] on the world stage, where from time to time we call in evidence of the undermining [18:26] of international law events in Russia and Ukraine, which is absolutely correct [18:31] and has the support of the vast majority of people and politicians here in the EU. [18:36] But then failing to extrapolate from that, that exactly the same thing and worse is happening [18:42] to the people of Gaza, to the illegal settlements that are happening in the West Bank and in [18:47] East Jerusalem, and now happening in South Lebanon. [18:51] And, you know, people aren't stupid. [18:53] Other members of the United Nations are very aware of these double standards, whereas on the [18:58] one hand, we're very happy to support the International Criminal Court, which issues an arrest warrant [19:03] against Netanyahu. [19:05] But when it issues an arrest warrant against Putin, there's cheerleaders across Brussels about that. [19:14] And it's just not credible. [19:16] And I'm afraid that High Representative Vice President Callas, by failing to do these, by these [19:23] omissions, is consistently degrading the credibility of the European Union across the world. [19:28] So I fully agree that we need to get to a point where we understand that Article 2 of the [19:37] Association Agreement commits both sides to the protection of human rights and democratic principles, [19:42] and that it is clear that the European Union, the vast majority of Europeans, have concluded [19:48] a long time ago that Israel has very, very profoundly and fundamentally breached that commitment. [19:54] And so we have to move to, if not a suspension immediately, at least a review of that agreement [20:01] in order to bring an end and to exercise the leverage. [20:06] I mean, a true friend of Israel will say that the best thing we can do is point you in the [20:11] correct direction of acknowledging the right of Palestinians of self-determination, redirecting [20:17] Israel policy towards a two-state solution, and at the very least, providing for humanitarian [20:22] access in the areas that it's currently occupying, including in South Lebanon. [20:27] Eve, would you say that EU political leaders have been out of step with public opinion? [20:33] Because when you look at the public, and particularly the young people in the European Union, they [20:38] believe there was a genocide in Gaza, and that's not a word their leaders will use. [20:45] For sure, James. [20:46] I mean, we talk to people across, you know, the full breadth of Europe, of all ages, from [20:50] all backgrounds, you know, who support human rights, many of whom, their view of the European [20:54] Union has declined significantly because of the European Union's stance and failure to act [20:59] on the genocide in Gaza, on Israel's illegal occupation across the West Bank as well. [21:05] I mean, a country like my own in Ireland had one of the highest public opinion, you know, [21:10] highest views of the EU across the Union, and that's declined quite dramatically. [21:15] And the main reason given for that in polling was that people just saw, you know, Ursa von der [21:20] Leyen, other European leaders not stepping up and not acting how they feel they should on EU [21:25] values when it came to the situation in Israel. [21:27] So for over a year, we as amnesty and supporters, not only across Europe, but around the globe, [21:33] have been calling on the EU to stop greenlighting Israel's crimes and suspend this agreement. [21:39] As was mentioned, this petition online reaching a million signatures and today crawling towards [21:44] one and a half million signatures of European citizens who are calling for their leaders [21:49] to do better. [21:50] So European leaders are certainly out of step. [21:53] We think the new generation is growing up with a very different view, and I would say a [21:56] very negative view of the European Union, which doesn't really align with their views [22:00] of the world, of the human rights or values which they want this union to be promoting, [22:04] particularly in today's world. [22:07] Sven, I don't want to belittle the smaller members of the European Union, particularly [22:11] as I have two Irish nationals on the panel with me. [22:15] But how important is it that we're seeing things change in countries like Italy and countries [22:22] like France and Germany, which are taking a much tougher line against Israel, the big [22:28] beasts, as it were? [22:31] I mean, I'm a German national, and of course, I was groomed as a baby boomer with a very pro-Israeli [22:39] and pro-Jewish attitude, and rightly so, because of the terrible crimes Germans committed against [22:47] the Jews for centuries, as a matter of fact, and particularly during the Holocaust. [22:52] So there is a bit of what we call Erinnerungskultur or Staatsräson, which makes it so difficult [22:58] for joint political leaders to be critical towards Israel. [23:02] But that is a complete mistaken interpretation of obligations under the Genocide Convention. [23:08] And other countries like Austria, which were part of that sort of cultural inhibition to [23:16] criticize Israel, and Italy in a way as well, I mean, basically, you know, countries which [23:22] during the Second World War had fascist governments and persecuted Jews. [23:28] Now the problem is, we have to actually realize that we only honor the commitment we have of [23:38] a never again, if we actually take the Genocide Convention by its very wording and definition. [23:45] We can never allow that crimes against humanity, crimes against other people because of their [23:51] ethnic affiliations, their religious beliefs, or who they are, can never be justified, whether [23:59] they are Jews, or Muslims, or Hindus, or Christians. [24:03] And that's the reason why I think it is a bit difficult for Germany and other countries [24:08] to come to grips with that new development, that Israel is actually committing war crimes [24:12] and crimes against humanity. [24:15] Now we haven't mentioned international law yet sufficiently well. [24:19] There are two key ICJ rulings which oblige us to act. [24:25] It's not a matter of convenience or whether we want it. [24:28] The first was the advisory opinion in July 24, which clearly said the occupation of Israel [24:36] in Palestine is illegal, is unlawful, and represents the character of either apartheid or segregation. [24:45] The word apartheid has been mentioned in this ruling for the first time by an international [24:50] court. [24:51] And the provisionary measures, which are binding, and decided in January, in March, and in May [24:59] 24, to stop, prevent, and punish genocide, also are binding on all UN and EU member states. [25:09] Meaning we have to take obligations with a view to ensuring that genocide in Gaza and elsewhere [25:15] cannot happen. [25:16] And we didn't, we haven't taken a single measure, except for the German government for a couple [25:21] of months last year, stopping or halting military goods to Israel, which can be used in the war [25:28] in Gaza. [25:29] But they have lifted that again. [25:30] Okay, important legal points there, Sven. [25:35] Barry, I'd like to bring in a little bit more of the politics, though. [25:39] Do you think that EU countries, one of the reasons they're being a bit bolder, is because [25:46] they're not so afraid of Donald Trump after tariffs, after Greenland? [25:51] Do you think there is more space now to criticise Israel because they're not worried about the [25:56] repercussions from the US that they might have been worried about during Biden and during [26:01] the beginning of the Trump term? [26:03] Yeah. [26:06] I think that definitely constituted a break on the European forthrightness, if I can use [26:17] that word, on Israel. [26:19] The obvious main priority for European leaders is Ukraine. [26:25] And there was a fear that by taking a more robust position on Israel, it might undermine [26:30] US support for Europe's position on Ukraine and Ukraine's defence against Russian aggression. [26:39] That hasn't gone away. [26:40] Let's be clear about that. [26:41] I think what is additional now is Israel's conduct in Lebanon, which is all the same characteristics [26:48] of what it did in Gaza, which includes a blockade of humanitarian aid, which I saw for myself [26:55] when I visited Beirut just a few weeks ago. [26:58] It includes ethnic cleansing. [27:00] People are leaving South Lebanon taking photographs of their houses, their fields and their villages, [27:06] assuming they may not be back again. [27:08] And there are so many examples of the targeting of civilian infrastructure that we see in our [27:13] news every day, and I think that it's just been an upswell of public opinion so that leaders [27:19] cannot now avoid the conclusion that what's happening in Lebanon is repeated to what's [27:24] happening in Gaza. [27:25] So it went off the boil after October 2025. [27:30] Really there was very little coverage and attention to it, up to and including the American [27:37] attack on Iran. [27:38] But I think since the South Lebanon events have become much clearer and much better reported [27:43] by the way than Gaza, where it was almost impossible for international journalists to access. [27:49] Now international journalists are on the ground and indeed UNIFIL, that is the United Nations [27:55] peacekeeping mission, are present in South Lebanon and the areas occupied by Israel. [28:00] So there's a huge amount of information coming out and I think that's having a very clear effect [28:06] on the public opinion. [28:07] Barry, there was certainly plenty of reporting on Gaza here on Al Jazeera. [28:12] Eve, finally, do you think this can be a moment for change? [28:17] The sort of change that human rights organisations like your own have been calling for? [28:21] I think it quite simply has to be. [28:25] We've seen a swell of growing support. [28:27] I think we remember at the beginning of the genocide, millions of people pouring onto streets [28:32] across Europe. [28:33] I think there was maybe a political sense that that outrage and the demands had dried up. [28:39] But when we see initiatives like the European petition calling for the suspension of the [28:44] agreement, we see that anger is still there and the death penalty law passed by Israel, [28:49] the incursions on southern Lebanon, ongoing attacks, flagrant violations, all of which are [28:54] fuelled by impunity as the international community has stood by and as the European Union has [29:01] continued to see Israel as a close trade cooperative partner. [29:04] Okay. [29:05] Thank you very much. [29:06] Our guests today, Yves Geddy, Sven Kuhn von Bödsdorf and Barry Andrews. [29:11] If you missed any of this discussion, you can see it and all of our programmes again anytime [29:15] you want at our website, aljazeera.com. [29:18] Your thoughts and comments are welcome. [29:20] Go to our Facebook page. [29:21] That's facebook.com forward slash AJ inside story or on X tag us when you make your point. [29:26] We are at AJ inside story from me, James Bays and the team here. [29:30] Stay tuned. [29:31] Al Jazeera's coverage continues in just a moment.