Could 'opening' Strait of Hormuz boost Iran peace talks? — Global News Podcast

[0:00] Welcome to the Global News Podcast. Hello, I'm Valerie Sanderson and I'm joined by our diplomatic [0:05] correspondent Paul Adams. Paul, President Trump says that a peace deal between the US and Iran [0:11] is close. This follows, of course, weeks of war after the US and Israel launched airstrikes on [0:18] Iran. We also have a ceasefire in Lebanon. How does that play into this? Well, look, I think the [0:25] ceasefire in Lebanon certainly helps. That was always one of the main demands of Iran and indeed [0:32] of Pakistan, which brokered that first round of talks in Islamabad. It is having the desired effect [0:38] because already we've seen the Iranians declaring that for the duration of the ceasefire, that is [0:44] the ceasefire between Iran and the United States, which has about another week to run, for the duration [0:50] of the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz will be open to commercial traffic. So that does appear to [0:56] have unlocked one of the things that was causing a problem in the talks between the United States [1:02] and Iran. So how big a step is that, do you think, towards progress? I think it's a huge step because [1:08] the problem of the Strait of Hormuz has become arguably the most important aspect of all this. [1:14] It has been the thing that has caused so much global economic damage. It has led multiple [1:21] countries to try and figure out what they can do to help unblock it. It has been, if you like, [1:26] Iran's newest weapon in its war against the United States, the ability to choke off traffic through the [1:34] Strait of Hormuz. So if the Iranians make good and traffic is able to go through, then that certainly [1:42] eases the pressure in a very significant way. Now, it should be said that the statement that they have [1:49] released says that traffic can move on the coordinated route as already announced by the [1:54] Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Now, that means, in other words, [2:00] that vessels should take the route that the Iranians have been demanding that traffic take north of the [2:07] the old, the traditional transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz, much closer to the Iranian mainland, [2:15] enabling the Iranians to keep a pretty close eye on what it's going through. So that is a condition, [2:20] and it may be that that remains a problem. But what they are saying is, it appears that there's no talk [2:27] of tolls or any kind of intrusive inspections by the Iranians. So we'll have to see whether this results [2:34] in, you know, the movement of traffic through the Strait. There are huge numbers of vessels [2:40] trapped inside the Gulf. They may now take this as a signal that it is safe for them to move. [2:47] But does this also depend on these ceasefires holding between the US and Iran and the between [2:54] Israel and in Hezbollah? In fact, the Iranians have made that very explicit in this statement. [3:00] They're saying that for the duration of the ceasefire. In other words, the week that remains [3:05] of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. Now, the latest ceasefire between Israel [3:10] and Hezbollah in the fighting in Lebanon, that's going to last for 10 days, slightly longer. [3:18] So I think, you know, essentially what we have is now a week or more in which the issue of the Strait [3:24] of Hormuz could be eased significantly. And of course, it may also help to all sides to agree [3:32] on further extensions of the ceasefire if they feel that the negotiations, which may or may not [3:38] resume in Islamabad in the next couple of days, are getting somewhere. [3:42] And what's the impact been on the Middle East so far, Paul? [3:46] You know, if you take the ceasefire in Lebanon, we're seeing, you know, celebrations in Beirut [3:51] and elsewhere in Lebanon at the end of a conflict that the people of Lebanon absolutely did not seek [3:56] and had become increasingly bleak about, you know, with huge numbers of people forced out of their [4:02] homes in the south. Many of those now are trying to return, despite the orders of both the Israeli [4:08] and Lebanese governments who are urging that it is not yet safe to do so. In Israel, we're seeing quite [4:14] a mixed response with a lot of people living in the north of the country feeling that this [4:20] necessary effort to deal with the threat posed by Hezbollah has now been interrupted in the middle [4:27] without some, you know, adequate conclusion and a feeling that this is merely a problem postponed [4:32] rather than dealt with. So it is a political issue that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [4:38] is going to have to address. In the Gulf, I am sure that there will be, you know, huge signs of relief [4:44] at the possibility that all of this traffic on which those Gulf economies depend so much can now start [4:51] to move. And for Iran, you know, this is this does raise the possibility that these talks with the United [4:59] States, which most people think will resume in Islamabad in the coming days, could result in, you know, [5:06] in some kind of significant breakthrough that is, you know, from Iran's point of view, the lifting of [5:11] sanctions, the end of the war, and the regime able to survive and weather this storm. So, you know, [5:19] this is a kind of moment pregnant with possibility, although, of course, there are all sorts of reasons [5:24] why it could all go wrong. And if you think about the issues which need to be discussed quite apart from [5:29] the future of the Strait of Hormuz, we get back to the fundamental thing that lay behind all of this, [5:34] which is Iran's nuclear program. Now, Donald Trump has said that Iran has already agreed to hand over [5:41] the highly enriched uranium, about 440 kilos of the stuff, which has been, it is thought, lies trapped [5:48] under the rubble near Isfahan following last year's brief war. Now, we haven't heard anything [5:55] from the Iranians to suggest that they have agreed to do that. And there are also enormous gaps in terms [6:00] of what the United States will be prepared to allow the Iranians to do in future when it comes [6:06] to enriching uranium. So there are huge issues that remain to be resolved, issues that took [6:12] international negotiators the best part of two years to negotiate in the run-up to the signing [6:19] of the joint protocol, sorry, the joint plan of action, I should say, the joint comprehensive plan [6:26] of action. It's always a bit of a mouthful. The JCPOA that was reached in 2015, you know, [6:32] that the complexity of those negotiations was mind boggling. And all of that stuff still has [6:38] to be sorted out now. So I think Donald Trump, he famously likes quick deals. I think that's going [6:44] to be elusive. But we may see the negotiations which started with that marathon 20-hour session [6:50] in Islamabad continue and start to focus on some of this very tricky stuff. [6:55] And, Paul, what effect is all this having on the global economy? [6:58] Well, look, we've seen as this thing has gone on, and it is more than six weeks now, [7:02] that the ripples from this conflict have just extended further and further around the globe. [7:08] So much of global commerce is dependent on the oil that transits, oil and other goods that [7:14] transit through the Strait of Hormuz, that, you know, the predictions have become increasingly dire [7:20] of the long-term consequences should this blockage continue any longer. You know, some of the oil [7:26] that was already on the water when the blockade was first imposed by Iran at the beginning of March, [7:34] that has now reached its destinations. There isn't much else that's sort of on the way. [7:38] And so, you know, the effects are still very, very considerable. And some people would argue [7:45] that we may not see the full effects for some time. If, as a result of this, we are going to start [7:50] seeing tankers moving out in significant numbers, carrying some of that badly needed oil and fertilizer [7:58] supplies and other goods through the Strait, then people will start to be a bit more optimistic about [8:06] the global economic prospects. And we're already seeing the markets responding to the latest news [8:12] with a, you know, a renewed surge of optimism. So it is quite a significant chink of light [8:18] in this difficult situation. [8:20] That was Paul Adams, our diplomatic correspondent. If you want to hear more on this story, [8:25] just listen to the Global News Podcast. Click on the link below. But that's it from us for now. [8:30] Thanks for watching. And thanks for listening. Bye for now.