Can the US really block Iran’s ports? Experts analyse Trump's threats

[0:00] Mohammed Eslami is a research fellow in Middle East and North African Studies at Tehran University. [0:04] He's joining us live from the Iranian capital. [0:07] And Samir Puri is a visiting lecturer in war studies at King's College in London. [0:11] He is in Singapore. [0:12] Gentlemen, thank you very much indeed for being with us on Al Jazeera. [0:16] Samir, I want to ask you first of all, what do you think that the U.S. is trying to achieve [0:22] by blocking these ships in and out of Iranian ports? [0:25] I think what it's trying to achieve can be very simply summarized as coercion of the [0:32] Iranian government. [0:33] That's always been the goal for the U.S. ever since regime change or regime collapse ceased [0:40] being possible. [0:41] But coercion means forcibly changing the Iranian government's behavior and policies on all [0:47] the issues of contention. [0:48] And what that means with the blockade is it means restricting, probably most critically, [0:53] Iran's ability to export oil and receive imports by controlling its ports, which is going to [0:59] hit the jugular of the Iranian economy. [1:02] Now, Mohammed, Iran's revolutionary guard says that Gulf ports should be for everyone [1:08] or no one. [1:09] So if the U.S. does block ships going to and for from Iranian ports, how do you think Iran [1:15] is going to respond? [1:19] First of all, I should say that it is a matter of question. [1:22] If the U.S. army can stop, I mean, can block it, it's a shift up almost in the Persian Gulf [1:29] because it's a vast, very, very big, I mean, I mean, where the big, the BLGCs, the tankers, [1:38] two-per tankers are going, it's a hard operation for the U.S. army. [1:42] However, from the Iranian, it's a challenge for them because they are right now under very, [1:48] very pressure in terms of military and also economic pressures on the President Tuzeshqian [1:54] administration. [1:55] So they don't want the Americans to stop this entrance for food and other things that they [2:01] need while they are under a war by the Israelis and the Americans. [2:07] So they want to send a very strong message to the Americans while they are thinking about, [2:13] most parties are thinking about somehow diplomatic settlements for the crisis. [2:17] But they don't want this rate to be closed. [2:20] And this is a very, very big, I mean, step by both sides. [2:25] Mohamed, if they, in the event that the IRGC decided that it was going to take action against [2:29] ports on the other side of the Gulf, because that is something that it has hinted in its [2:35] latest statement, how much is it prepared to risk the relationships or what remains of the [2:41] relationships that it has with the other Gulf nations? [2:44] Mohamed, I think we should, we should, we should talk about some specific ports. [2:51] If you are speaking about some specific ports in UAE, it was as the consequences of the UAE [3:00] government involvement in the attacks against Iran. [3:04] I think that the Iranian army and the IRGC are, are waiting for a chance to, again, to attack [3:11] the UAE ports in an action against what happened in the last hours before the ceasefire. [3:19] Samir, in terms of the kind of options that are available to the US military when it comes [3:25] to this blockade, one would imagine that in the, and we've seen evidence of this over [3:29] the last two or three weeks, if you fire at a tanker which is laden with oil, the risks [3:33] of an environmental catastrophe are huge. [3:37] So, in your estimation, what actions can the US military take in order to be able to exert [3:42] some sort of control over the shipping in the strait? [3:47] So, these are the sorts of questions that are going to become really vital over the next [3:51] few days and weeks, is how the US actually goes about enforcing this kind of blockade. [3:57] And, of course, we don't know exactly how the US will approach it. [4:00] We do know that they have the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. [4:05] They've got, I believe, eight guided missile cruisers also in the region, which means they [4:13] can defend against Iranian air attacks. [4:15] And the US may try to impose some kind of inspection mechanism of its own, possibly on the entry to [4:22] the Gulf of Oman. [4:23] Who knows exactly where they'll set that physical perimeter? [4:27] But that inspection regime might really be designed to kind of guide and direct the behavior [4:32] and sort of directions of travel of the various supertankers entering and exiting this region. [4:39] And probably to try to identify these so-called shadow fleet vessels that Iran has relied upon [4:45] to export a lot of its oil. [4:48] But I think having those watchful eyes focused on the entry and exit of tankers into this maritime space [4:54] might actually start to achieve something for the US. [4:57] But let's not underestimate how complex this is, because the US military will have to do this [5:01] potentially under fire if Iran is able to retaliate. [5:06] Samir, I also want to ask you about a couple of statements that we've just had in the last [5:10] two or three hours. [5:10] One from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying that the UK is not going to get dragged into [5:15] the Iran war. [5:17] Whatever pressure, it feels that it's being put under. [5:19] But it will be part, or is willing to be part, of any sort of monitoring process if there's [5:25] a ceasefire. [5:26] French President Emmanuel Macron apparently talking about pulling together some sort of [5:30] defensive coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz. [5:33] In your estimation, what would have to be in place for that to work? [5:38] It's really important to remember this is not just happening in a vacuum involving the [5:42] US and Iran. [5:43] Respectively, the British and the French governments have been quite active in the last few weeks, [5:47] conducting some preparatory diplomacy around their possible leadership roles in maritime [5:53] security coalitions. [5:55] But I think the answer to your question is very simple. [5:57] The French Navy and the British Navy probably aren't going to sail into a war zone. [6:02] There would need to be some clear sense that the conflict had entered a post-conflict phase [6:06] where the shooting had stopped, and that maritime security, sea mine clearance, and other [6:14] sort of assurance voyages that British and French and other European warships might undertake [6:20] would not actually invite Iranian retaliatory fire. [6:23] So I think those are the broad preconditions. [6:26] But I think the fact that the European governments you've mentioned are engaged is important. [6:31] Mohamed, this is all, of course, coming off the back of the failure of the talks in Islamabad [6:37] just over the weekend. [6:39] In your estimation, how far away are we from the possibility of those talks restarting or [6:46] in some way being continued compared to where we were prior to the meeting in Islamabad? [6:55] First of all, I should say that it was not a normal negotiation. [6:58] It was a kind of very, very hard conversation under the second census of war between two countries. [7:06] So, by the way, two parties were very, very close to a kind of diplomatic settlement. [7:14] They were very close. [7:15] But however, by the act of the Israelis and sabotaging the deal, again, they have sabotaged [7:21] the deal and they pressured on the American delegation not to accept what they have already accepted [7:29] before the Islamabad negotiations. [7:31] So, right now I think that the Pakistani government, along with some other countries, we can name Saudi Arabia, [7:43] we can name Turkey, and some other European countries, they are trying to survive the peace talks [7:50] between Iran and the United States. [7:52] But the question is about what happened for the U.S. and Iran to think about the sea spur. [7:58] The realities on the ground for both sides were, in a way, to think about the sea spur and thinking [8:06] about the diplomatic settlement. [8:08] I think even after this act of somehow violation by the U.S. administration, the realities remain the same. [8:19] I think it is a possibility for both sides to think more about diplomatic solutions. [8:24] Mohammed Aslami, a Research Fellow in Middle East and North Africa Studies, Tehran University, [8:29] and Samir Puri, Visiting Lecturer in War Studies at King's College London from Singapore. [8:34] Gentlemen, thank you very much indeed for being with us on Al Jazeera.