Can China help end the war on Iran? — Inside Story

[0:02] China's diplomatic role in the Middle East under sharp focus as foreign ministers from Beijing and [0:07] Tehran meet. It's calling on the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and for a comprehensive [0:13] ceasefire. So can China help end the war? This is Inside Story. Hello and welcome to the program. [0:36] I'm Mohamed Jamjoum. China is emerging as a major player in global diplomacy, including in the Middle [0:41] East. In 2023, it helped reestablish diplomatic ties between Riyadh and Tehran. While it's not [0:47] officially mediating efforts to win the ongoing war, both the U.S. and Iran are looking to China [0:53] to help de-escalate. So can it propel the two sides towards that goal? And if China makes a direct push [1:00] to stop the fighting, how will its economic cloud affect the course of negotiations? We'll discuss [1:06] these issues with our guests in just a bit. But first, this report by Ferdi Akar. In his first visit [1:14] to Beijing since the war began, Iran's foreign minister Bas Aragji hailed ties with strategic [1:20] partner China. He also applauded its push for peace, including a proposal by President Xi Jinping [1:27] put forward last month. We are aware of the four-point proposal put forward by the Honorable [1:35] President Xi. We believe the four principles he proposed are entirely correct. Based on these [1:40] principles, it is possible to achieve peace and stability in the Gulf region. We have always [1:45] believed, and even more now, that China can play a constructive role in this regard. [1:52] Beijing's four-point plan for Middle East peace asks countries in the region to commit to peaceful [1:58] coexistence, to national sovereignty, the principle of international law, and a balanced approach to [2:04] development and security. The plan aims to establish peace between Iran and Gulf countries that have come [2:12] under attack during the war. It doesn't address U.S.-Iran talks directly, but shows China is willing to be [2:19] a mediator in Middle East affairs, as it did in 2023 when it helped restore diplomatic ties between Saudi [2:26] Arabia and Iran. China has called the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran illegitimate. But it's also been [2:35] critical of Tehran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy transit route. Beijing has called [2:42] for it to be fully reopened. China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security [2:51] and commends Iran's willingness to seek a political settlement through diplomatic channels. Regarding the [2:57] issue of the Hormuz Strait, the international community shares common concerns about restoring [3:02] normal and safe passage across the Strait. With U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled to visit [3:09] Beijing next week, attention has turned to China's potential role in de-escalating the conflict. [3:16] Ahead of the trip, the U.S. asked its rival China to help fully reopen the Strait. [3:22] I would argue and have argued that it is in their interest for that resolution to pass and for [3:27] pressure to be brought on Iran, because it is in their interest not to see international waterways, [3:31] including the Straits of Hormuz, be closed down and cause economic chaos to dozens and dozens of [3:36] countries around the world. While China may welcome the U.S. Navy being tied down in the Gulf rather [3:43] than focused on the Asia-Pacific, the conflict also threatens its economy. China is by far the largest [3:51] buyer of Iranian oil. And while Washington may be unhappy with Beijing's support for Tehran, [3:58] China is facing pressure from both sides to exert its considerable influence to bring the war to an end. [4:05] Freddie Akar, Al Jazeera for Inside Story. All right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests. [4:14] In the Iranian city of Isfahan is Setare Sadeqi, an assistant professor at Tehran University's [4:20] Faculty of World Studies. In Philadelphia is Scott Ulinger, a retired CIA station chief and former U.S. [4:27] Navy officer. And joining us from Beijing is Andy Mock, a senior research fellow at the Center for China [4:32] and Globalization. A warm welcome to you all and thanks for joining us today on Inside Story. Setare, [4:37] let me start with you today. How significant from your vantage point was this visit by Abbas [4:43] Araqji to China? And what message was Iran trying to send by having him go there, you know, not too [4:50] long before U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to be in Beijing to meet with the Chinese President [4:56] Xi Jinping? As you mentioned, the timing is very important and it's intense to signal a very important [5:06] message. I think while Iran respects China's efforts to probably broker a peace deal between the United [5:13] States and Iran, Iran also wants to send a message that it will abide by its commitment to protect its [5:21] national sovereignty and using its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as a means of protecting its [5:31] territorial waters, as well as using it as a bargain chip against U.S. sanctions. [5:39] The visit also comes after China signaled that it wants to build a structure against U.S. sanctions [5:47] and it is going to punish companies that comply by U.S. sanctions and make it difficult for China to [5:55] have normal trades with other countries, including Iran. So I think the two countries are [6:01] sending a message that they will continue to act as sovereign nations and will not allow to be [6:07] bullied by the United States and coerced into taking measures that contradict or jeopardize [6:15] their national interests. Scott, from the outside looking in, it seems as though the U.S. is putting [6:21] a lot of emphasis on China's potential role going forward in this role. Is that an admission that [6:29] American diplomacy has failed thus far? No, I don't think so, Mohammed. I think it's more an admission [6:35] that at this point, Iran is basically a client state of China. The two have our great trading partners. [6:46] China is dependent on Iran's oil. And also importantly, Iran is dependent on things like [6:54] Chinese chemical deliveries that allow them to build up their ballistic missile fleet, as well as arms exports [7:04] to Iran, which allows Iran to basically threaten its neighbors. So the United States is pragmatically [7:10] recognizing that China has a lot of influence over Iran, mostly because of the energy problem. And so I think [7:19] China, in its own interest, is interested in basically resolving this conflict in a way that will best [7:27] benefit China, but might also benefit the United States and the neighbors of Iran in the Middle East. [7:34] Andy, what do you make of all this? What do you make of the timing of the trip, the reason behind [7:39] Arakshi's visit? And also, how was the visit perceived by Chinese leadership? [7:45] Well, Mohammed, I think the timing, as we heard, was very deliberate. And this was seen, I think, [7:52] on Iran's part as an inoculation against any potential move that China might take in its [7:59] discussions with the United States. But I think it's also very important to look at this within the [8:04] broader global context, where I think it's widely recognized in China and perhaps other parts of the [8:11] world that the torch of global leadership is passing from the United States to China. And this has very, [8:19] very profound implications because the U.S. model was based, first of all, on the belief that the [8:26] universal political endpoint was liberal democracies. Free markets were the engine of growth and security [8:34] was provided by the U.S. military. And we can see with China's peace plan regarding the Iranian conflict is [8:41] that the Chinese model is actually very, very different. So first of all, there's an acceptance [8:46] for pluralistic political systems. There's a belief that development is really the basis of security and [8:57] that infrastructure over ideology. And I think, you know, this kind of makes people's brains explode [9:03] sometimes that they can't understand that China doesn't want to replace the U.S., but in fact, [9:09] has a very, very different approach that I think resonates with many countries around the world, [9:15] including Iran. Scott, I can see you reacting to what Andy was saying there. It looked to me like [9:22] you wanted to jump in, so I'm going to give you the opportunity to do so. Right. Well, I think what my [9:30] colleague is stating is perhaps a little overboard. Right now, I think politically, [9:37] I'm going to say Chairman Xi wants to present. Certainly it's in his interests to broker such a deal, [9:44] because for one thing, Xi is relatively embattled right now. He has very declined popularity within [9:52] China. There's been a huge, a huge departure of foreign business out of China as he becomes increasingly [10:00] authoritarian. And not to mention the fact that he's had massive purges within the Chinese military [10:08] and the Chinese Communist Party that is demoralizing a lot of people. So China needs a win right now. [10:15] And so they're definitely going to do to the benefit of the United States in this case and the benefit of [10:21] Iran negotiate or try their best to use their influence on Iran to pressure them to come to an [10:29] agreement. But this is because really at this point, China needs a win because it is losing [10:36] the PR battle in Southeast Asia with a lot of important countries such as the Philippines and [10:43] Japan signing new defense agreements, Indonesia signing a defense agreement with the United States, [10:49] because these countries are alarmed at Chinese expansions. [10:53] Sittare, China remains Tehran's most important economic lifeline. We're talking, [11:00] this is after years of U.S. sanctions that have left Iran deeply dependent on Chinese trade, [11:06] Chinese investment. What does Iran want to see from China going forward? [11:11] I think Iran and China both have been victims of U.S. sanctions, and they're both seeking to develop [11:20] a new structure where they can continue to act as sovereign nations and protect their economies [11:26] against U.S. hostile measures. Iran and China previously worked on establishing workarounds [11:33] in order to facilitate the export of Iran's oil to China by establishing and building a railroad [11:42] through Central Asia. And part of Iran's oil passes through that. And they also have been working [11:48] through the Strait of Hormones. Chinese ships can continue passing through the Strait of Hormones. [11:53] And they are also seeking to challenge U.S. dollar and the dominance of U.S. dollar over global [12:00] energy markets. And we're seeing that Iran and China are proposing that ships have to pay or buy [12:08] oil in yuan rather than U.S. dollar. And this is a major attack on U.S. petrodollar, [12:14] which is one of the founding killers of U.S. hegemony and imperialism in the region. This comes as [12:22] perceived as a threat, and that is why the United States is approaching China. I mean, [12:28] that's one of the reasons that the United States is approaching China in order to sort of prevent that [12:35] from happening. But as I said, I think China and Iran both find shared, especially economic, but also [12:43] strategic interest in working together to deter U.S. hegemonic ambitions in the region, which basically [12:54] treats other countries as client states. And they want to, you know, work together as equal partners, [13:03] protecting their own national interests rather than the interest of a hegemon that has practiced [13:10] bullying other countries into surrender. Andy, how much has China been impacted by the disruption of [13:17] energy flowing from the Gulf to Asia? And how important is it to China that Iran is not further [13:25] weakened by this war? Well, Muhammad, I think first of all, you know, there is a misperception, [13:33] I think, in Western reports about China's vulnerability to an energy shock. And, you know, [13:40] I think the truth is the U.S. is far more vulnerable. And here's why. You know, [13:45] we hear about how China is so dependent on Iranian oil, but that really neglects the bigger picture, [13:51] that China's total energy mix is something like 58 percent domestic coal. A significant proportion of it [13:59] is renewables, solar, hydro, nuclear. So there is a portion that is dependent on oil, and that is [14:06] actually a declining percentage as well. And China has an enormous strategic petroleum reserve. But I [14:13] think more importantly, its political system allows it to insulate companies and individuals from any [14:21] significant price increases. However, I think the U.S., despite, you know, being a major, perhaps the [14:28] largest oil producer in the world, has a very direct pain transmission mechanism from the global price of [14:36] oil. So even though the U.S. can produce a lot of oil, it's priced globally, that this is a very direct [14:43] pain transmission mechanism to the gas pump. And with the midterm elections coming up, [14:48] I think this is why we see the increasing anxiety, I would say even desperation from the Trump [14:56] administration to reach some sort of off ramp with Iran. And I think, you know, again, as our [15:02] colleague mentioned, you know, I think Iran, through its exercising control over the Strait of Hormuz, [15:09] which previously was only a theoretical issue, you know, is now shown to be very, very real. And I think [15:14] that puts the United States on a very, very awkward situation. [15:18] Scott, as we mentioned before, Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China and meet with Chinese [15:23] President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14th and May 15th. From your vantage point, what is the [15:29] state of the relationship between the U.S. and China right now? And how much have tensions risen [15:35] between both countries as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz? [15:39] Well, I don't. Generally speaking, relations have been, I'd say, somewhat declining over the past, [15:47] perhaps eight years or so. But that's basically based upon the realism that China is basically [15:55] creating some of the world's problems, whereas before the United States had given China a blank [16:01] check. That said, President Trump, I think, is is diplomatic with his dealings with with Xi. [16:09] However, we the United States is aware of the fact that China is acting in some ways that is [16:16] alarming to its neighbors. And so the United States has been sought out by several Southeast Asian [16:22] countries. As I said, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, even Australia, a number of and Vietnam, [16:30] a number of countries are are alarmed at the rise of China. And so President Trump is basically dealing [16:38] with China as the primary rival of the United States, although he wants to keep, obviously, [16:45] good relations between the two. He wants to ensure that China's expansionist tendencies are [16:52] kept in check by a series of alliances in Southeast Asia and even such things as a recent agreement [17:01] about the states of Malacca with Indonesia. [17:03] Sitar, I was just asking Scott about the nature of the relationship right now between the U.S. and [17:09] China. I want to ask you about the importance of the relationship between Iran and China. How [17:16] influential is China right now when it comes to Iran? How much pressure could China exert on Iran? I mean, [17:23] would China be able to play an oversized role in perhaps getting Iran to accept a deal or a framework [17:32] for a deal with the U.S.? [17:37] Well, I think Iran's message has been very clear before the war started during the war and right now [17:43] during this very fragile so-called ceasefire that it will not capitulate and it will not surrender to [17:51] the United States or to possible pressures from China. I do not think that China is seeking to exert [17:57] pressure on Iran. It will try to broker some sort of a peace deal or an offer, Trump, an off-ramp from [18:06] the quagamire that it fills, I mean, the United States fills stock in. But Iran will continue to [18:12] show that its sovereignty is very important to it. Iran's proposal for negotiations to the United States [18:19] has been very clear that we will consider certain issues including, for example, the nuclear program as [18:26] our sovereign issues and they're not negotiable. And Iran has also made it clear that it will not [18:33] negotiate with the United States for any other countries for that matter at gunpoint. It will [18:38] negotiate as an equal partner. China and Iran have been dealing with each other and trading as equal [18:44] partners rather than one imposing their ambitions and agendas on the other one. And this is something [18:52] that is very difficult to understand for the United States and that's why we're seeing projection, [18:57] propaganda, calling other countries as client states or expansionists, when in fact the expansionist [19:06] country and the one that treats other countries especially the Persian Gulf countries as client states [19:11] is the United States. The United States does not even know how to practice diplomacy because [19:18] you cannot say that you're talking to another nation and then bomb them exactly in the middle of the [19:26] negotiations. What the United States did to Iran two times before when the two countries were talking [19:32] about the nuclear issue. Even when Pakistan tried to broker a peace deal between the two countries and [19:39] Iran agreed to lift the restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, the United States continued its blockade over [19:47] the Iran's territorial water and that is why we're seeing where we are in this illegal aggression on [19:56] Iran. So I think Iran and China will continue to act as sovereign nations. I mean, Iran previously, [20:05] whenever there has been a disagreement with China, they have voiced it and they have talked to it like [20:10] two adults countries and they have tried to reach settlements over points that they maybe they did not [20:22] totally agree on. Whereas the model that the United States is practicing is still an imperialist model [20:29] trying to coerce other nations talking about peace at one point and then saying that they want to [20:38] bomb an entire nation back to Stone Age or back to, you know, or totally just destroy an entire [20:45] civilization. So the rhetoric coming from White House and especially Trump does not signal a willingness [20:52] to practice diplomacy. It's all about coercion and that's exactly what China and Iran are detriments to [21:00] sort of repel. Scott, I'm going to get back to you with a question in just a minute. I want to go to [21:05] Andy first, specifically about some comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He has openly [21:12] and publicly urged China to use its influence with Iran to help deescalate the crisis. From the vantage [21:19] point of Chinese officials, is this an acknowledgement that the U.S., by the U.S., rather, that Beijing [21:26] perhaps has the upper hand here? No, I think it certainly can be seen that way, Mohammed. And I think, [21:34] you know, again, I think we look at the China-U.S. relationship over the last few years, I actually [21:38] think it has turned a corner and really is on a trend of greater improvement for this simple reason. [21:47] We look at what happened on Liberation Day. Every other country succumbed or knuckled under to these [21:56] American tariff threats. And the only country to not do so was China. And I think it even responded [22:04] with, you know, its own trump card, as it were, with rare earth medals. And I think, you know, [22:10] that earned the respect of the United States. And this is, I think, why we can see again, you know, [22:15] this more diplomatic approach, because I think what is very clear is, you know, Trump's approach, [22:22] as our Iranian colleagues said, you know, more of a big stick, threatening countries. And I think [22:28] the question from China is, is this an aberration? Or is this just a continuation or even, you know, [22:35] the culmination of an American framework, worldview style of diplomacy? And I think, you know, we have [22:44] to see. But certainly, you know, I think from the Chinese perspective, you know, it has shown that [22:50] it can't be intimidated. And September 3rd last year, I think, was a very important date with the [22:56] military parade, because what President Xi at that time said that was not widely reported in Western [23:01] media is that China is a peaceful nation, but it is not afraid of violence. And I think that coupled with [23:09] its economic and trade response, I think, sent a very, very clear message to the United States. [23:15] Scott, I know you wanted to jump in. Before you do, I just want to want to ask you a question, [23:19] because you heard Satara there talk about the mixed messaging that has come from the U.S., [23:25] you know, in the past month. You've had some days where it's coercion. You've had some days where it's [23:30] a more diplomatic approach. There have been so many different messages coming from the U.S., [23:36] from President Trump, from other U.S. officials. From your perspective, is the Trump administration [23:43] actually genuinely seeking an off-ramp from escalation? And to what links at this stage [23:48] will it go to to end the war? I mean, Trump is under a lot of pressure internally, you know, [23:55] domestic politics in the U.S., midterm elections, unpopularity of the war. Does Trump actually want [24:01] to end this? Well, I think I think he certainly does. And I might disagree with some of your [24:09] statements about the unpopularity of the war. I think Americans understand that basically Iran has [24:16] been at war with the United States since 1979, as well as the rest of the world. If you ask any [24:21] of the nine countries surrounding Iran that were attacked by Iran in the past two months, including the [24:28] UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, even Azerbaijan, they agree that this present Iranian regime is a threat, [24:37] not only to its neighbors, but also to the people of Iran. Let's not forget to mention the 40,000 [24:44] Iranian demonstrators that were eliminated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard in the last three months. [24:51] Okay, so this this regime does not speak for the Iranian people. It is a regime that has been [24:58] dedicated to terrorism since it was born in 1979. Scott, let me ask you very quickly as well, [25:05] because we are starting to run out of time. Is there any concern in Washington right now that Iran [25:09] and China could be brought closer together because of all of this pressure? I don't I don't think that [25:16] that is a primary concern. I think the United States, like I said, welcomes the idea of Chinese [25:22] pressure on Iran to come to some sort of a settlement. But at the same time, the United [25:27] States will be aware that China also has an agenda here. But perhaps there may be a solution that is [25:34] palatable to all sides. Satari, we only have about a minute and a half left. It looked like you wanted [25:39] to jump in. I'll let you go ahead. But I also just wanted to ask you, how important is it now for Tehran [25:44] to get clarity over how far China is willing to support Iran if it agrees to ease tensions in the [25:52] strait-of-horn moves? Well, I think for our colleague in the U.S. who has worked for CIA, [26:00] it's amazing to hear that he thinks that the aggression between the United States and Iran [26:07] started by the United States, if he should remember that in 1953, it was the CIA that overthrown [26:15] the democratically elected government of Mossad. The CIA and Mossad worked during the Bush administration [26:22] in Nevada to arm and train MEK terrorists in order to assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists. [26:31] And the United States has also killed Iranians through sanctions. The United States is currently [26:36] killing more than half a million people across the world with its sanctions. And the war on Iran, [26:43] the illegal war on Iran, started by killing 170 little girls while they were in school, [26:49] in session. And you were talking about inflated numbers totally made up by fashion bloggers and [26:55] people who have never been in Iran and accusing Iran of fake numbers of killed so-called protesters. [27:05] When your government bragged about having armed them, having supported these so-called protesters who [27:12] have actually killed a lot of security forces. And you did so because you wanted to justify [27:20] this illegal war on Iranians. I think Iran will work with China in order to protect its sovereignty, [27:27] but Iran will not rely on any foreign nations, including China, in order to protect its sovereignty. [27:34] And they have made it clear that it will continue independently to protect its border, [27:39] and they have done so very successfully. All right. We're going to have to leave it there [27:43] as we have run out of time. Thanks so much to all of our guests, Satara Siddiqui, [27:47] Scott Ulinger, and Andy Mock. And thank you, too, for watching. You can see the program again [27:52] anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. And for further discussion, go to our Facebook page. [27:57] That's facebook.com forward slash AJ inside story. You can also join the conversation on X. [28:02] our handle is at AJ inside story. For now, that's it for me, Mohamed Jamjoum and the team here. [28:07] Al Jazeera's coverage continues in just a moment. Stay tuned.