HUGE ELECTION UPDATE on midterms

[0:00] we are just days away from election day in midterms i'm joined now by jacob rubashkin the [0:05] deputy editor of inside elections jacob i'm really glad to have you today i want to talk about some [0:10] ratings changes that you guys at inside elections just made so can you give the latest news in [0:16] terms of where these races stand yeah brian well thanks for having me we made a whole bunch of [0:21] changes this past thursday 64 to be exact 63 of them were in favor of democrats one was in favor [0:28] of republicans so uh just to break it down across all the different chambers because we cover the [0:32] house the senate and governor's races we've made 10 gubernatorial race changes nine of them to [0:38] democrats one to republicans we made nine senate changes all in democrats favor and our current [0:45] projection in the senate now is a democratic gain of between four and six seats remember they [0:50] need four to get to the majority so we see them favored to do that and then in the house we made [0:55] 45 ratings changes um all of them in democrats favor our current projection at this point a [1:03] democratic net gain of between 20 and 30 seats remember democrats need just three to get back [1:09] to the majority so pretty clear favorites in the house as well okay so obviously the big thing that [1:16] everybody's talking about right now is the senate so let's go you know through the senate races [1:21] specifically can can you walk us through what rating what what races in the senate you view as flips [1:27] come election day yeah so at the moment we've got a couple races on the board as flips for democrats [1:35] the first one and the one that we moved earliest in the cycle was north carolina this is an open seat [1:40] republican tom tillis is retiring at the end of his term and former governor roy cooper is the democratic [1:46] nominee there he's led essentially wire to wire against republican mike whatley uh that's been [1:52] democrats best opportunity since governor cooper got in the race so that one is is the first one [1:59] that comes off the board the other two that we just moved into the democratic column are ohio where [2:05] former senator sherrod brown is making his comeback attempt against john housted and probably the biggest [2:11] move that we made uh on thursday texas we now see james tallarico as a slight favorite to beat ken [2:18] paxton and flip that seat to the democratic party for the first time since uh the 1980s okay so keep [2:25] going through this list we've got maine we've got iowa keep uh keep talking to us through this uh the [2:29] senate map yeah so so we've got four races currently rated as toss-ups and essentially where we're at right [2:35] now is democrats need to win one of those four in order to get to their uh senate majority because [2:42] we also see them favored to hold on to their seats in michigan and new hampshire which are the two uh [2:47] big defensive places on the map uh but of those four toss-ups like you said we've got maine we've got [2:52] iowa we've got alaska and we have kansas yes which is the most recent addition to that list uh all these [3:00] races are really close um for different reasons obviously we've got states as democratic as maine [3:06] which voted for hillary clinton in 2016 joe biden in 2020 and kamala harris in 2024 and we've got [3:13] states like kansas which hasn't sent a democrat to the senate since the 1930s so there's a pretty wide [3:18] range of races in the toss-up category it goes to show that senate races you know they the political [3:24] environment matters here but so does candidate quality um republicans have a good candidate in maine [3:30] and incumbent susan collins they've got a pretty weak candidate in kansas in uh senator roger marshall [3:37] and so uh that's how you get to these two kind of toss-up races at the same time but again uh look [3:43] democrats only need one of these four and that's why we see them as favored at this point and what [3:49] we know from the past is that oftentimes these toss-ups don't break evenly they break toward one party [3:55] or the other so um it could be a very good night for democrats they could get upwards of 52 53 seats [4:02] or uh they could get just about that number that they need uh to clinch the majority what about some [4:08] of these independent races there is dan osborne running as an independent candidate in nebraska [4:13] you've got brian bangs uh running in is it south dakota south dakota yeah mistaken and then there's [4:20] also the montana candidate seth bodner and so what about what are those races looking like so i i put [4:27] them in kind of three categories here at the top you've got dan osborne in nebraska uh we see him as [4:36] a slight underdog but very much in the hunt there that's a highly competitive race republicans have [4:41] spent a lot of money to defend against pete ricketts remember osborne got very close to beating [4:47] center deb fisher in 2024 he really snuck up on her she didn't take that race seriously that hasn't [4:53] been the case this year ricketts knew he was coming and he was prepared it's just the environment is so [4:58] much worse for republicans that even with that additional preparation osborne has has kept it very [5:04] close i think he's really the only independent with a really good chance to win you know the second [5:11] person on the list i would say is probably brian bangs in south dakota this is a really republican state [5:17] i don't think he's going to win we have that race rated solid republican but i think he'll get a lot [5:21] closer than the partisanship of the state would suggest you know a typical democrat in south dakota [5:25] is probably only going to get 35 of the vote i think bangs could get 45 i wouldn't be surprised [5:31] if that race is kind of a 55 45 race when all is said and done um the other two independents running [5:37] for the senate seth bodnar in montana and todd achilles in idaho is is also trying this uh gambit of of [5:45] running you know forcing the democrat out of the race and running as an independent i don't think [5:49] either of those guys are going to win in montana the democrats stayed in the race um which i think [5:54] sank any chance of seth bodnar winning uh that race you know the way to win in montana you have to [6:02] have all of the democratic votes and then peel off a bunch of independents if alani bank had the the [6:07] democrat in montana if she had dropped out i think that would be a really close race i think this is [6:12] kind of the one silver lining for republicans at this point in the senate cycle is that they [6:17] didn't have to spend 40 million dollars defending an open senate race in montana um so i think i think [6:25] kurt all me the republican is is going to win there and then idaho is just so republican that like even if [6:32] todd achilles the independent there puts up kind of the best performance for a non-republican in idaho [6:38] in a really long time it's still not going to be enough i mean i see polling out of idaho pretty [6:43] regularly for a state that's so uh so republican and and jim rish the incumbent there he's not winning [6:50] by like a million points he's kind of right around that 50 percent marker um the problem is todd achilles [6:58] is still like 15 20 points behind him and it's not obvious how he makes up that ground in the next [7:04] couple days okay so that's that's a deep dive into the senate map you know obviously the house is [7:09] going to take care of itself and there are a lot of races to be looking at especially since you guys [7:13] have 20 to 30 races projected uh to flip from from red to blue but i want to focus on some of these [7:19] governor's seats um some of these are are again happening in states that i think six months ago you [7:26] would never have thought democrats would have the right to be able uh to compete in including places [7:32] like alaska and iowa so walk us through some of your gubernatorial projections yeah so democrats also [7:39] look like they're going to have a good night when it comes to governors races democrats haven't actually [7:43] had a majority of the states since 2010 that when they when they had that terrible midterm year in [7:50] obama's first administration they lost their majority of governorships and they haven't gotten back [7:55] there since then uh currently republicans of 26 to democrats 24 and i think at this point it's pretty [8:01] clear that democrats are going to finally come back uh to to majority of of the states you mentioned two [8:08] places where democrats are favored iowa they got a really good candidate and state auditor rob sand he's [8:15] led wire to wire essentially in that race as well against zach lane the republican candidate um and that's [8:20] really helpful for dem for democrats because uh not only is there a governor's race in iowa right there's [8:25] that senate race that's highly competitive and there are three house districts that democrats could [8:30] pick up in iowa remember they only need three to win state uh the whole the whole house of representatives [8:36] so uh rob sand could kind of single-handedly you know help democrats take back control of the house [8:41] uh by putting up a big enough margin to to make sure that democrats flip those three iowa seats [8:47] so that race is going to be uh very important um and then you've got that alaska race which is is also [8:54] at this point uh a place where democrats are favored to win uh you know the politics up there in alaska [9:00] are uh kind of uh unorthodox i think is the best way to think about it they have a different electoral [9:07] system with the top four ranked choice voting system but people in alaska just vote a little bit [9:12] differently they're far more willing to cross the aisle vote for independence vote for members of [9:17] the other party uh than than a lot of states in the lower 48 and in this cycle the democrats are [9:23] clearly the beneficiary of that in the in the governor's race and and potentially in the senate [9:28] as well but you know the story doesn't end there for democrats they have a really great opportunity to [9:33] pick up the ohio governorship you know we've watched vivek ramaswamy and his campaign really on a [9:39] sour note quite frankly i mean i i thought that he was probably gonna be the underdog regardless of of [9:46] the last two weeks but the ad that he ran i i really don't think that that helped him uh it's [9:52] certainly not what anywhere anyone else in the state wanted to be talking about with just two [9:57] weeks left to go so you've got that one you've got you know real democratic opportunities um elsewhere [10:03] in in the country ranging from the you know classic swing state places like georgia where i think keisha [10:11] lance bottoms is going to surprise a lot of people on tuesday night in that race uh to more republican [10:18] areas like texas which is holding a surprisingly competitive race and even uh you know a state [10:24] like nebraska which has kind of a weird race going on as well so there's there's a lot going on on the [10:29] governor's side it doesn't get as much attention as the house and the senate because it's not you know [10:34] control of dc um but i think it's really important right i think that like the power that governors [10:40] have as it relates to the lives of everyday americans is so much greater than anything that [10:48] any one individual member of congress ever will will wield over over your daily life and yet they [10:53] don't get the attention that that frankly i think they deserve yeah a hundred percent and and there are [10:58] also implications you know in terms of these governors races and the state houses for the national [11:03] popular vote interstate compact which is something that i've been focused on but but you know there [11:08] are i i believe about 207 uh electoral votes that are already signatories to this compact once they [11:15] get to 270 then obviously it'll kick into effect but that only happens when democrats are able to [11:22] continue winning some of these either state houses or or governor's races that they otherwise didn't hold [11:28] um it's worth asking here though all of these ratings are happening on the backdrop of the existing [11:34] polling that we have right now and yet i feel like cycle after cycle there's always such a big story [11:40] about how the polling is you know inaccurate or or over over estimates one party over the other and so [11:48] how how are you taking into account previous um over or underestimations with polling that then lends itself [11:58] to those ratings that you're making it's a good question i think you know we try and treat polling [12:04] with the appropriate skepticism uh unfortunately it's still the best tool that we have to understand how [12:10] you know big groups of people like an electorate are are thinking about the decisions that they're [12:15] going to make but it's absolutely true that polling has had some some trials and tribulations there [12:20] are a couple things that i try and keep in mind the first is the polls seem to do better when [12:25] donald trump isn't on the ballot and i know he likes to say you know pretend i'm on the ballot but [12:30] he isn't and and that is kind of a a certain comfort to me because in 2018 and in 2022 the polls [12:37] actually performed pretty well it was 2016 2020 and 2024 when they clearly undershot republican support [12:45] and i think that has a big thing to do with trump's ability to turn out voters who are just less likely to [12:50] take polls uh there's this thing called partisan non-response bias and essentially the argument is [12:55] that uh people who don't take polls are more republican leaning uh across every category than [13:02] people who do take polls and so even if you wait for the proper demographics and and try and get as [13:08] representative a sample as possible you're simply not reaching enough republicans because they're not [13:13] willing enough to to take your polls um i think that's a greater issue in presidential years than [13:21] in midterm years uh the other thing that i think is happening is that pollsters know this right they [13:27] know that they've gotten burned now three presidential cycles in a row they know that their industry [13:32] is kind of on a precipice and if they get another really high profile cycle incorrect it could be [13:38] really catastrophic on an on a on an industry-wide level kind of reputationally and so the incentives [13:46] if anything are actually to undershoot democratic support uh when it comes to polling this cycle i [13:53] talk to a lot of pollsters we don't do our own polling but i talk to pollsters every day and and what [13:58] they say whether they're democratic or republican uh is is if they're going to miss they would rather [14:04] miss by being too conservative right than by being too friendly to democrats um and and so uh there's [14:11] a school of thought out there that um perhaps the polls are uh the assumptions are being made about [14:18] the electorate that are too conservative uh for reality and that's pulling the polls actually in a [14:24] republican-friendly direction um and so it's possible that polls might undershoot democrats this cycle [14:31] the unfortunate and the fortunate thing is that you know we don't have the answers now but we'll [14:36] have all of the answers after tuesday because we'll we'll get results and the last thing i'll say is [14:41] like look you got to be discerning when you look at polling i mean we both spend a lot of time on twitter [14:48] we we see a lot of polls there's a lot of junk out there these days there's more junk than ever frankly [14:55] and not just kind of polling that's that's bad data but polling that's fake polling that's [15:00] fraudulent we've seen kind of pop up more and more over the last couple of months and so you really just [15:06] have to be careful you got to know who's doing the survey you can't be talking about the gold standard [15:11] of polling wedgwood can you exactly exactly no i mean it's it's it's um it's kind of crazy to me to [15:18] see that like a pollster with no reputation with no names on their website can pop up and all of a [15:25] sudden their polls are being not only aggregated by the people who aggregate polls which is one thing [15:30] but you know cited by major news outlets uh hyped up by campaigns themselves i was getting press releases [15:37] from campaigns talking about wedgewood surveys um and and you know i'm happy to say we never cited them [15:45] in our newsletter at all because from the beginning something smelled a little fishy and and so i think [15:51] it's important to kind of trust your gut trust your instincts if it's a pollster you've never heard of [15:56] if the data is too good to be true which is another thing that like people don't like saying out loud [16:01] but i think it's it's a good rule of thumb if if the polling is just too good uh for for you or too [16:07] bad for you to to uh be believable there's probably something wrong right like there's some polls [16:14] that have come out of idaho this cycle for instance that have like the democrats and the [16:18] independents winning um and like beating the republican incumbents in the house districts [16:23] and in the governor's race and things like that like those polls aren't real i'm sorry like uh the the [16:31] using your head can get you out of a lot of like tricky um polling quandaries uh and so that's that's [16:37] what i try and do last question here as we talk about election day the first polls are going to [16:43] close at 7 p.m i believe on the east coast and so what are the first races that you're looking at [16:50] that will inform whether what we're seeing is a blue puddle a blue wave or a blue tsunami [16:58] i love this question i think about it all the time i i think the the best example is is probably you can [17:05] probably find it in in the state of virginia uh because virginia polls close early on election [17:11] night out on the east coast and you've got three districts there that line up pretty nicely with [17:17] those three categories so you've got the second district which is congresswoman jen kiggins [17:22] she is facing elaine luria the former congresswoman this is a district we have rated tilt democratic so it's [17:28] one that democrats should be picking up if if they're if there's a halfway decent midterm environment for [17:34] them this is one of the first ones that comes off the top then you've got the first district which [17:38] is held by rob whitman he's been the republican representative there for almost two decades democrats [17:45] have never really tried to challenge him before but he's got a real race on his hands this time [17:50] if he loses then i think we're in like decent night blue wave territory for democrats um in the house [17:57] and then you've got virginia five which is this central va district that includes both the university [18:04] of virginia but also lynchburg and liberty university and this is like a trump plus 15 seat congressman john [18:10] mcguire is the incumbent there if democrats are winning that seat um you know hold on to your seats because [18:18] uh this is going to be this is going to be a tsunami environment so i think virginia is a really good [18:24] example here i would also give a shout out to florida just because they count their votes so [18:28] dang fast we're gonna know a lot about the results in florida very very quickly if democrats are highly [18:36] competitive in those statewide races that's a good sign for them if they are flipping any of their kind [18:42] of reach targets in florida uh like the 13th district um or the 27th district those are also really [18:50] good signs for them conversely if they're like losing those redistricted seats like florida 14 [18:57] florida 22 florida 25 early on that's maybe a sign that things aren't going as well as as they had hoped [19:04] for okay uh jacob for folks who want to follow along with your work especially on election day where can they [19:09] go yeah so uh on election day i will be manning the big board on c-span uh watching all these results [19:16] come in live uh breaking down county by county everything that we're seeing come in so be sure [19:21] to tune in then that's very exciting and otherwise you can find me on twitter at jacob rubashkin [19:27] and of course inside elections.com we've got all our ratings all our analysis everything you need [19:32] to know as a political junkie for every single race in america at the federal level it's all there [19:37] on the website so be sure to check that out too awesome well thank you for the work that that you're [19:42] doing looking forward to following along on tuesday and uh good luck these uh these next few days hope [19:48] you're hope you've got a lot of coffee and uh and soda and whatever else you need to keep you awake but [19:54] i appreciate you taking the time today yeah we'll sleep over when we're dead that's right that's it [19:58] thanks jacob thank you