Bolton reacts to Trump's latest Iran threat: ‘I wouldn’t recommend that’

[0:00] This morning oil prices spiking again after President Trump said he wants to take Iran's oil [0:05] and then moments ago he posted this on his true social quote saying if for any reason a deal is [0:11] not shortly reached which it probably will be and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately open for [0:17] business we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of [0:23] their electrical generating plants oil wells and carg island and possibly all desalination plants. [0:32] President also has now pushed off that deadline that he has set another time now saying that he's [0:36] going to hold off until April 6th and targeting Iranian energy sites to allow for these talks [0:42] that he's now writing about this morning. You wrote that continuing to push this off is a sign [0:46] of weakness. Do you think he should hit Iran's energy infrastructure though? Well I think if [0:54] we have the support of the Gulf [0:56] Air Force and the United States and the United States and the United States and the United [0:56] Arab states who risk retaliation from Iran, if we do that, then the answer is yes. Just on this [1:02] point, you know, the mediators said that Iran had not asked for an extension of the deadline. That's [1:09] what Trump said. They asked for it, so I gave it to them. The mediator, not Iran, the mediator said [1:14] they never asked for it. So it's very much in question just exactly what the state of play in [1:19] these negotiations really is. Maybe we'll know more this week, but I don't think any negotiation [1:24] that goes on by passing messengers through the mediators is close to a solution. If we sit down [1:31] with the Iranians and come up with something, that would be different, but I'm not optimistic [1:35] even on that point. Yeah, and the president also this morning, I believe for the first time, [1:40] is now threatening to, as part of the retaliation, part of what would come if Iran doesn't come to [1:46] the table, I believe for the first time he is now threatening to hit desalination plants. That's [1:51] what he wrote today, which are a critical source of fresh water. [1:55] Of course, for the entire Gulf region. Is that something you would like to see? What impact do [2:00] you think that would have on this conflict? No, I wouldn't recommend that again, mostly [2:07] because I'm concerned about retaliation to our Gulf Arab allies, and that's something we need [2:12] their continued support and participation. I think the president's focused on one thing and one thing [2:17] only, and that's the international price of oil. Not thinking about nuclear weapons, ballistic [2:22] missiles, terrorism. He's thinking about the closure of the Karg Strait of the Strait of [2:27] Hormuz, which is why you have this speculation about what the military may be up to. The better [2:33] answer is to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and not let any Iranian oil out. If our Gulf Arab allies [2:40] can't ship oil, then neither should the Iranians, nor should they be able to earn [2:44] the proceeds from that, which in one way or another filter back to their war effort to kill [2:49] American service members. Let me ask you, if the focus, if you think the focus is definitely [2:55] largely, at least, on the price of oil. [2:58] But we now also have reporting from the Wall Street Journal suggesting that Trump's [3:02] weighing U.S. military operation to go in to extract nearly a thousand pounds of uranium [3:07] from Iran. If he would be able to secure the uranium, is it worth sending in ground troops, [3:14] you believe? Well, I think at some point we have to make sure that the enriched uranium, [3:21] the centrifuges, all the sensitive materials and information about the nuclear program don't fall [3:26] into the wrong hands. At the beginning of this, I thought the time for that to happen would be as [3:31] the regime collapses, when the disorder might permit people to get parts of that enriched [3:37] uranium shipped out of the country. I don't think we're there yet. I think as long as we can keep [3:42] attacking the program, that for now, that's sufficient. I would be more inclined to take [3:49] steps to make sure that Iran can't continue to finance its effort. They've blockaded the [3:54] Gulf Arabs, in effect. We should do the same for them. That's how to impose more economic pain. [3:59] Malcolm Davis is a senior analyst. [4:01] On defence strategy and capability with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. He joins [4:06] me now from Canberra, Australia. Thank you so much for being with me, sir. I appreciate it. [4:10] Let's just start by bringing us up to speed on where things stand right now. We are hearing [4:15] such mixed signals from President Donald Trump, talking about progress and holding back on [4:20] strikes, but also speaking so aggressively. How do you read the strategy at this point? [4:27] Look, I don't think there is a strategy. I think that's the short answer. I think that [4:30] talk of peace and equality is a strategy. I think that's the short answer. I think that [4:33] the negotiations and the war coming to an end are simply not credible. At very best, [4:39] very premature. I think that what you are seeing is a buildup towards probably the deployment [4:45] of ground forces. But before we get to that point, the air campaign by the Americans and [4:51] the Israelis will continue to attack the Iranian missile capabilities and other targets across [4:57] the country. And then at some point, probably in the very near future, I would say within [5:01] a week or so, we'll see what happens. I think that's the short answer. I think that's the [5:02] short answer. I think that's the short answer. You probably will see ground forces being [5:05] introduced into the battle. So there's no way you can say that this is heading towards an off-ramp [5:10] or peace. As you say, we have seen a significant U.S. buildup in the region, thousands of Marines [5:17] and sailors arriving there. What does a deployment of that size tell you about the direction of [5:22] travel right now? Well, I have to say it's a small deployment. If you really wanted to do a massive [5:29] ground invasion of Iran, you'd need much more larger ground force deployments than what we're [5:36] seeing. I think what we are seeing is sufficient ground forces to be able to do limited operations [5:41] of the sort that could be deployed against Karg Island to seize the oil infrastructure there, [5:47] potentially a ground force insertion into Iran itself to secure control of highly enriched [5:56] uranium and extract that from Iran to deny Iran the ability to have nuclear weapons, [6:02] potentially ground force operations to seize other islands. [6:06] In the Persian Gulf and in the approaches to the Straits of Hormuz, but really nothing beyond [6:11] that. The size of forces that we're seeing at the moment being deployed into the region are [6:16] not sufficient, for example, to ride towards Tehran. There is growing focus on the critical [6:25] energy choke points, including the Straits of Hormuz and potentially even sites like Karg Island [6:29] now. How central are those to U.S. and Iranian planning and how risky would any move around them [6:35] be? I think the rationale behind seizing Karg [6:40] Island is that we're not going to be able to do that. We're going to be able to do that. [6:40] We're going to be able to do that. We're going to be able to do that. We're going to be able to do that. [6:40] Our plan is to deny Iran any sort of access to its oil revenue, because Karg is the key location [6:49] through which 90% of Iran's oil goes through. So by seizing Karg, supposedly the Americans could [6:56] control that oil infrastructure and then deny it to the Iranian government and use that as a means [7:01] to coerce the Iranian government into signing a peace agreement. I'm not convinced that it's [7:06] actually going to work out as well as they plan. I think that the Iranians can probably [7:10] sit back and attack the americans on cargo island and casualties will mount up so i'm not convinced [7:17] that cargo is actually going to deliver some sort of peace uh a peaceful conclusion to the war [7:25] in terms of the strait of hormuz that's the critical area uh so long as the strait of [7:29] hormuz remains closed the energy and economic damage at a global level will continue to rise [7:37] and at some point the americans do have to force open the straits of hormuz militarily [7:42] that will demand a multi-week campaign to destroy iranian defenses to destroy iran's ability [7:49] to interdict shipping in the strait of hormuz to clear the strait of any sea mines and to attack [7:55] iranian forces well inland to deny them the ability to attack shipping as it enters the [8:00] strait so that's that's another whole operation even beyond cargo island in my opinion on the [8:07] defensive side [8:08] israel and its allies are still intercepting large volumes of missiles and drones across [8:12] the region is there a real concern about how sustainable that is there is a concern uh for [8:19] the simple reason that both uh the u.s and israel uh are running low on interceptor missiles the [8:26] sort of missiles like patriot and thad uh for the americans and arrow and uh david sling uh for the [8:34] israelis uh as those uh magazines as those uh [8:38] sort of uh [8:39] stockpiles of ammunition get lower and lower it's easier for the iranians to get drones and missiles [8:45] through uh and these missiles like patriot are very expensive to produce they cost about a million [8:51] dollars uh each to produce compare that to the cost of a shahad drone at 20 000 a drone it takes [8:58] a long time to produce these missiles where it's very quick to produce the iranian shaheds so we've [9:02] got a serious issue here in terms of an economic imbalance between defense versus offense that does [9:09] need to be corrected in terms of how we defend against the drone threat in particular in future [9:14] wars. Joining us now is Democratic Congressman Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico. Thank you for being [9:19] here. Look, you just heard and probably saw what the president put out on social media saying if [9:25] Iran doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz, he will take out the electric generating plants, [9:30] oil wells, Karg Island, and possibly all desalinization plants. What do you think about [9:35] that? Well, first, I think the president is trying to negotiate the United States out of [9:43] war that he single-handedly started. Look, the attacks on the infrastructure on Iran and these [9:49] empty threats, it seems like, I believe, don't hold a lot of weight considering that the president [9:54] is negotiating a major international conflict by social media. I think the United States needs to [10:01] get serious about putting an end to this conflict and not being litigated by social media. So it's [10:07] very hard for our Americans. [10:09] I understand, one, the intent of the actual war itself, second, how it winds down, and then third [10:14] and the most important is what the role is going to be of American troops playing a potential role [10:20] in a ground invasion because that puts our military, our servicemen, and women at risk, [10:25] which I don't think anybody wants to see. The president has also claimed that there [10:29] is regime change there, that they are now talking with people who want to negotiate in Iran. [10:34] What is your sense of the situation in Iran? Is there regime change in your [10:39] mind? [10:39] Look, I really don't think so. I think the president has found himself in hot water, has found [10:47] himself in a mess with, honestly, very predictable outcomes that were not thought through in a way [10:54] that is deserving of the American power that we wield across the world. And what we're seeing now [11:00] is, of course, we are sort of on an island. We're standing on a ledge by ourselves as the president [11:05] is asking our allies to get involved, and they refuse to. This is a product of both failed [11:10] international diplomacy, failed foreign policy, failed international diplomacy, and failed [11:12] friendships with our allies. And now we are seeing that Iran is actually continuing to benefit from [11:18] some of those sales of oil as those prices reach record levels. We're seeing that Iran is actually [11:24] making more money at this point, and some of their vessels that are being allowed to transfer [11:30] through the Strait of Hormuz is actually benefiting Iran, giving them more money. And I [11:35] believe that as long as that continues to happen, there won't be a regime change until the people [11:41] internally in Iran are able to make more money. And I think that's going to be a big part of the [11:42] solution. So we're seeing that, and I think that's pretty clear. I mean, they may call for that, [11:46] but I don't believe the conditions just yet are ripe for that, as we have seen before, despite the [11:52] numerous killings of their top leaders. Here we're looking at Iran. Itself has hit desalinization [11:57] plants of its neighbors, and human rights officials say, look, these are violations of international [12:01] humanitarian law and possibly war crimes. If President Trump does order troops to carry out [12:06] blowing up electrical capabilities and desalination plants is the U. S. Going to be doing the same? [12:14] Well, look, first and foremost, I think we have to look out for the safety of this country. Yeah. [12:15] of our servicemen and women who are there and the potential ramifications also to the domestic implications as it pertains to starting a prolonged war in which we've seen domestic incidents of terrorism in the past related to these conflicts that puts us domestically here at risk. We cannot escalate this war in a way in which all rules are put off the table. In my opinion, look, there are millions of people that live in Tehran and Iran. These are families. These are folks with with ambitions, with school, with [12:45] you know, schools and dreams and, you know, the prospect of of going through a change in regime that is positive for one of these the largest countries in the Middle East to for that to be stymied by a last second decision by the president in which their infrastructure is completely destroyed is going to lead to more catastrophic consequences. And what worries me right now as well is is the potential use of nuclear weapons in this war as we continue to move forward. We have to get ourselves [13:15] out of a posture of negotiating by bombs and go back to real diplomacy. And again, we haven't seen that the president has been able to have a serious leadership effort when he's tweeting out his negotiating plans. And Iran is essentially saying that those aren't happening.