Bolton reacts to Iran purportedly seizing ships; calls ceasefire ‘incoherent’

[0:00] Iran now says it has collected its first toll in the Strait of Hormuz. It also released new video purportedly showing Iranian soldiers boarding container ships there. The White House says this does not violate the ceasefire because they are not U.S. or Israeli ships. I want to play an exchange or one part of an exchange. I want to read you something else. And this has to do with Iran apparently boarding and seizing taking possession of vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz. This is how the White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt explained it. [0:31] Does the president view that as a violation of the ceasefire? [0:34] No, because these were not U.S. ships. These were not Israeli ships. These were two international vessels. And for the American media, who is sort of blowing this out of proportion to discredit the president's facts that he has completely obliterated Iran's conventional Navy, these two ships were taken by speedy gunboats. [0:55] Iran has gone from having the most lethal Navy in the Middle East to now acting like a bunch of pirates. They don't have control over the Strait. [1:04] So she said, talking about it, is blowing it out of proportion. But it was President Trump in a true social not too long ago who said, [1:11] any Iranian who fires on us or at peaceful vessels will be blown to hell. So is it blowing it out of proportion or is it blown to hell? Which one do you think it is, Ambassador? [1:22] Well, look, I think her comment was utterly incoherent. Not that I expect anything any different. [1:29] I mean, what if those ships were Saudi or what if they were Emirati or Kuwaiti or British or German? [1:34] I mean, who knows really what the ship where the ships were flagged? [1:40] But the real point is, if you're going to have a ceasefire, that is not the kind of conduct we expect from the adversary. [1:49] Now, Trump has also kept our blockade in place and, in fact, I think quite correctly, extended it to a worldwide basis, [1:56] which means the ceasefire itself is incoherent. And I'm afraid that's also a pretty good description at the moment of the direction of U.S. policy. [2:05] I think the president's lost. I don't think he knows what to do next. [2:09] Who has the leverage in negotiations as the president extended this ceasefire now a couple more days? [2:16] Who do you think has the leverage and who do you think Iran thinks has the leverage? [2:22] Well, I think perhaps most importantly, Iran clearly thinks it has the leverage. [2:26] I wouldn't have started the ceasefire. The country that benefits from the ceasefire is Iran. [2:32] They have been getting pounded and now they've had two to three weeks of relief from it and the prospect of more in store if negotiations get started. [2:42] The leverage comes because of U.S. and Israeli military force and stopping the application of that force has really given the Iranians a chance to try and make something out of a very bad situation for them. [2:55] You mentioned the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and the seizure of Iranian vessels and vessels that have been at ports all around the world. [3:02] How much pressure do you think that puts on the Iranians? How long can they hold out against this type of blockade? [3:10] Well, I think it puts enormous pressure on. But I think in addition to that, and it's one reason I wouldn't have had the ceasefire, [3:16] we've got to make the rest of the strait, the rest of the Persian Gulf safe for traffic from oil from the Gulf Arab countries. [3:23] In other words, stop Iran from exporting oil, but let our friends in the Gulf, the Gulf Arab states, export oil to alleviate the global economic effects that the conflict is having. [3:37] I think if we try to get out of this without having demonstrated military dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, [3:44] the Iranian regime is going to use this like a light switch. [3:47] They're going to turn the Strait of Hormuz off and on when it suits them. [3:52] And if we weren't willing to use military force to open the strait now, when are we ever going to be willing to use it? [3:57] When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC releasing video around the seizure of two vessels yesterday. [4:05] And it's pretty dramatic video. I mean, there's a lot of questions around whether this is valid footage. [4:10] It looks more like, you know, some kind of practice around, you know, some naval experts telling us that this might not actually be the seizure. [4:18] But it gives you an idea of how they're doing it because it's asymmetrical. [4:22] You've got these speed boats that are going up towards these vessels. [4:25] I mean, these guys are armed. These speed boats can carry around a dozen IRGC commanders. [4:31] And the analysis also shows us that while these speed boats, you know, are very small and they can't really face up to the U.S. Navy, [4:39] if they come in swarms or even in hundreds, then you're looking at potential significant damage. [4:45] And according to CNN sources, there could be hundreds and even thousands of these speed boats, [4:49] even though the United States maintains that it has been able to annihilate the entire Iranian Navy. [4:55] Joining me right now to talk about this is CNN Global Affairs Analyst Brett McGurk. [4:59] Brett, let's talk first, I guess, about this latest directive from the president who says he's ordered the Navy to shoot and kill any any boat, [5:07] no matter how small they are, apparently, putting mines in the Strait of Hormuz. [5:13] Was that already happening? Isn't that why? [5:16] Didn't they go and already attack some of the Iranian Navy that was allegedly putting mines in the water? [5:25] We did. We've been told we sunk the entire Iranian Navy. [5:29] But, Kate, this is now a story of two blockades and a competition for who can stretch time. [5:35] So let me kind of unpack that. [5:38] We have a blockade on Iranian ports and Iran has a blockade on the world. [5:43] So we have a blockade on Iran. Iran has a blockade on the world. [5:46] And right now, nothing is really getting through the Strait unless Iranian ships can squirt through our blockade [5:51] or the U.S. military and CENTCOM wants to eventually create confidence for international shipping to go through the international passageway, [6:01] which Iran has mined and has threatened to attack. [6:03] That's basically where we are. [6:06] And it's a competition for who can outlast the other side. [6:09] The economic pressure will build on Iran, but the economic pressure will build on the global economy [6:14] and particularly countries in Asia, South Korea, Japan, and China. [6:18] That's basically where we are. [6:20] And in the backdrop, you have the Pakistanis still trying to get talks moving again, and we'll see if that happens. [6:24] So I would put the president's new statement here against that backdrop because right now we're kind of stuck. [6:32] The Iranians are making clear with the videos they put out yesterday, Kate, showing their forces fast roping or climbing a ladder onto a ship. [6:42] They've done that before. [6:43] I was the point person in the White House on this issue with Iran. [6:47] They did this three times in the Biden administration. [6:49] They seized a ship after we seized a ship, and they put out a video just like that. [6:54] This is what the Revolutionary Guards have done for some time. [6:56] The fact that they can still do it, though, after six weeks of a very intensive military conflict, I think is concerning. [7:04] So that's the backdrop. [7:06] And I think the president issued this somewhat threatening statement today, which is about that part of the CENTCOM mission to reopen that international passageway, [7:15] which even in the best case, Kate, is going to take a long time. [7:20] These are vast territory. [7:22] Finding mines is very hard. [7:23] We decommissioned a lot of our mine-clearing ships just before this war started, actually. [7:29] So even the assets aren't necessarily in place. [7:33] It's going to take time. [7:35] I mean, I'll give you a choose-your-own-adventure. [7:38] What do you think is the more pressing issue to answer, which is who can outlast whom and who benefits the longer this drags on? [7:46] Or also, when you hear, speaking of timing, this assessment that CNN has reported and others, this assessment that lawmakers were told by Pentagon briefers, [7:55] that it could take up to six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends because of the mines, which is a more pressing issue to figure out how to fix. [8:05] Well, so, you know, we are in the process of finding alternative routes for energy. [8:12] Maybe about half of what used to go through the Strait is now going through other routes, such as through the Red Sea. [8:17] There's a pipeline in Saudi Arabia. [8:19] The UAE is a port called Fujairah, which kind of bypasses the Strait. [8:23] But that's not really enough. [8:24] We're increasing our production. [8:25] But this is going to have an impact on the global economy. [8:29] But as I mentioned, Kate, primarily those countries that are so dependent upon these exports out of the Strait, and that's China, Japan, South Korea. [8:38] And, I mean, if I was in the White House, I'd be calling those capitals to say, hey, you want this problem fixed? [8:42] Get on the phone with Tehran. [8:44] Tell them to do the deal that's on the table. [8:45] That's how we can get out of this. [8:47] Build that international pressure on Iran. [8:50] I don't really see that happening right now, unfortunately. [8:52] But I've said this since I think we were first talking early in this war. [8:57] This is going to be a long-term, protracted campaign, whether you like it or not. [9:02] If you take something on like this, it's not going to be short. [9:05] I don't think that the American people have not been prepared for that. [9:09] And we're now in the sixth or seventh week. [9:11] I think it's going to go on for some time. [9:13] Hopefully not the hot war shooting phase that we've seen. [9:16] But this economic warfare, that's the new normal. [9:20] And it's similar to the old normal, because we've been doing this with Iran for a long time, but kind of to an extreme degree. [9:26] Because now it's the Strait of Hormuz. [9:29] Iran has shut down other passageways, the Red Sea, the Babel Mendeb earlier, years ago, a couple years ago. [9:34] The Strait of Hormuz, a whole different story, affects the entire world. [9:38] And we're all going to be living with it for some time. [9:40] But Iran is also going to come under pressure from our blockade. [9:43] And that's, you know, that's basically where we are. [9:46] Yesterday, Hamid Reza, around this time, we saw Iran fire on at least three ships in around the Strait of Hormuz, [9:56] those critical waterways there, and sees two of them to draw them in towards the Iranian coast. [10:03] Do you expect to see more of this? [10:05] Well, it is sort of a tit-for-tat from the Iranian perspective for not just the naval blockade itself, [10:18] but the way it was implemented lately. [10:22] And I am speaking here about the shooting by the U.S. naval forces towards an Iranian container ship [10:31] and the confiscation of the ship. [10:34] So the way that it is seen in Tehran, it seems that they believe this is some sort of a battle of endurance [10:41] in which the United States wants to kind of reverse the trend that kind of led to Iran having somehow the upper hand [10:53] by controlling the Strait of Hormuz and trying to redraw the equation around the Strait and also in the Persian Gulf. [11:02] So by doing this, they want to send a signal that they are not deterred. [11:07] And actually, they are determined to even double down on their activities at the Strait of Hormuz. [11:13] So this is my reading of the situation. [11:15] So this is my reading of the situation.