BBC sacks radio presenter Scott Mills after allegations over "historic relationship"

[0:00] Hello it's Adam in the newscast studio and we will start with that story that broke just before [0:04] lunchtime on Monday that the BBC had sacked Scott Mills after decades and decades on the nation's [0:11] airwaves. The person who's been covering the story all day is the BBC's culture and media [0:15] editor Katie Razzell who's here. Hi Katie. Hello Adam. Right give us the timeline of how this story [0:20] emerged. Well let's give credit to the Mirror because the Mirror had the scoop if you like [0:26] that Scott Mills had been sacked for personal conduct reasons. Oh yes because they posted their [0:32] story at 11 30 on the dot with the headline exclusive which was roughly the same time as [0:37] the BBC statement went out. Exactly so we don't know the backstory to that we don't know whether [0:42] the Mirror had the story went to the BBC the BBC then investigated or whether the BBC you know [0:48] someone somewhere alerted the Mirror we don't know any of that but what we do know is the Mirror had [0:54] it as an exclusive we got this email [0:56] an internal note to staff wasn't it from Lorna Clarke who's director of music. Shall I read that? [1:02] Yeah or read the most important bits. So it was a shock I mean she says I wanted to personally [1:09] let you know that Scott Mills has left The Breakfast Show and the BBC. I know this news [1:13] will be sudden and unexpected and therefore must come as a shock not least to many of us [1:17] who've worked with Scott over a great many years because obviously you know he has worked across [1:22] not just Radio 2 most recently but Radio 1, Five Live, Radio 2 and of course TV. [1:27] And then she goes on to say of course it will also come as a shock to our audience and loyal [1:32] Breakfast Show listeners too. Yes I mean he took over Zoey Ball's Breakfast Show last year it has [1:37] about 6.5 million listeners so it is the biggest breakfast show in the country and he became the [1:44] face of it obviously although can you say face when it's radio sort of. Everything's visualized. [1:48] Exactly yeah although not it turns out not because there's a key bit to this story which is last [1:54] Tuesday he signed off his show. He signed off his show. He signed off his show. He signed off his show. [1:56] He signed off his show. He signed off his show. And then didn't appear again so it looks like [2:03] they got wind of it and took him off on Wednesday but when I tried to put that in my six o'clock news [2:08] piece earlier it was only the audio so you say everything's visualized it's actually not. [2:12] But going back to Lauren and Clark's email I mean the tone of that is interesting because [2:16] that's sort of that's an email that is caring about the team and the staff and the listeners [2:22] not necessarily breaking the news to the wider world that's not a public-facing email is it? [2:26] No that is an internal email and when we went to the BBC and obviously we've been given [2:31] permission to use that internal email but when we went to the BBC their statement was whilst we while [2:37] we do not comment on matters relating to individuals we can confirm Scott Mills is no [2:42] longer contracted to work with the BBC. Now obviously behind the scenes we were having [2:48] conversations which confirmed that he had been sacked it was for reasons of personal conduct [2:54] but we don't at all know what those. [2:56] Reasons are or what that personal conduct or misbehavior is and you know that's not to say [3:03] that there might not be a story in a newspaper tonight or indeed we might get to the bottom of [3:07] it at some point perhaps tonight um who knows but but but at the moment it's quite murky not murky [3:15] that's the wrong word that makes it unfair it's unclear is there anything that can be read into [3:20] that phrase personal conduct well because that suggests maybe and I'm completely speculating here [3:28] maybe something that's not office related yes so the BBC always chooses its words carefully [3:34] doesn't it although it didn't put personal conduct in any of its emails or statements [3:39] but I think you're right that it seems to me I've reported on quite a lot of BBC crises quite a lot [3:46] of them involving presenters who've done various things including obviously things that have been [3:53] criminal um there is an issue you know in a way you can't account for what people do in their [4:00] personal life. [4:01] As a boss you know you can't be held liable for what people do because some people not just men [4:07] some people behave badly what becomes a problem for the BBC is if it is something that its own [4:14] culture allowed to happen or allowed to fester and indeed then its reaction to it once it emerges [4:21] so in some of the previous cases for example you know and this is criminal this is very different [4:27] from what you know what we know about Scott Mill so I'm not I'm not saying what he's done in the [4:32] BBC is at all comparable but when Hugh Edwards when the Hugh Edwards scandal broke and obviously [4:37] people will remember it was very slow he wasn't named at the beginning then he was then it emerged [4:42] much later that this was actually criminal and then obviously he was convicted of making child [4:47] abuse images um that there was a suggestion and that is disputed by the BBC but there was a [4:53] suggestion that the culture at the BBC enabled someone like that who's a big famous face who can [4:58] throw his weight around that in enabled him to behave in a way that he was not supposed to behave [5:02] in a way that he was not supposed to behave in a way that he was not supposed to behave in a way [5:02] that if the rest of us had behaved in that way it wouldn't have been overwhelmed now I'm not saying [5:07] that's true but I'm saying that was the suggestion and so so the problem for this problem on the Scott [5:12] Mills front is did any of this happen whatever happened was it on BBC time was it something [5:16] related to the BBC if it wasn't and it was something outside then that's probably a very [5:21] different issue the other thing that strikes me about this is um just the speed at which it [5:25] happened um what what do we think we can glean from that well I think we can glean that the BBC [5:31] held this cultural review [5:32] after what happened with Hugh Edwards and other high-profile scandals it said you know Tim Davies [5:39] Samir Shah the chairman of the board they both uh spoke to MPs at the culture media support committee [5:43] gave evidence where essentially they said no one's irreplaceable at the BBC doesn't matter how famous [5:48] you are if you don't live BBC values you're out the door and Tim Davies very clearly said this is [5:54] a new thing a new way of working it's making that clear so you could look at this and read it as [6:01] well this is the culture review [6:03] working in practice so we've brought in new processes says the BBC we have looked at this [6:09] very swiftly reached a decision a resolution he's out the door now of course you could say that [6:16] perhaps and I don't know the answer to this but one of the reasons why you could do this swiftly [6:21] is if the person in question has said held their hand up and said well actually yes that is correct [6:26] I've no idea whether Scott Mills did that but it's clear that if he did do that then that gives the [6:32] BBC much free [6:33] to say right well he's admitted it so he's out the door and it looks like you've made a you made [6:37] a really Swift decision and indeed you have but you've been helped to do that by the person in the [6:42] center of it whereas you know we know that in other cases people denied for weeks and months [6:48] that they had done anything wrong or were suspended on full pay for quite a long time well exactly [6:53] right um also this is a bit of a sidebar issue but it seems at one point we might have three [6:58] director generals in the building this week well it's true so Matt Britton the new Google executive [7:03] the new director general who's come from Google after a little mini gap year actually a bit longer [7:08] than a year he has been spotted here today he was spotted in the canteen he was I'm told spotted [7:13] leaning over the atrium looking down and he he's definitely been here so he's here starting this [7:19] week the actual person who is going to be acting director general for a bit while Matt Britton gets [7:25] his you know onboarding done and all the meetings he has to do and signs up to all the pro you know [7:29] all the assist computer systems and everything he's called Roger Tavan Davis [7:33] and he's clearly a you know he's so he's acting director general and then Tim Davey until Thursday [7:38] is the actual director general the outgoing director general and I think I'm not sure Tim [7:42] was here today I don't know but I do know that he's here on Wednesday and Thursday and this was [7:46] the fact that we've got three DGs is interesting because it makes you think well who actually made [7:50] the ultimate decision here because the old staff email we got confirming it to everybody it was from [7:56] Roger Talfan Davis who's the acting director general well exactly right and I don't know the [8:01] answer to that but I do think that if you [8:04] are Tim Davey in your last week when you want to be celebrating your triumphs and thinking about [8:09] that and heading out the door do you want to have your name against the latest BBC scandal to break [8:17] on your watch so I don't know the answer but Roger Tavan Davis is the one who sent out a later email [8:23] to staff we haven't heard anything from Tim Davey about this story and actually Tim Davey said one [8:28] of the reasons he announced his departure in the first place was he wasn't really feeling he had [8:32] enough gas in the tank to deal with another scandal [8:34] well he said he'd taken a real toll on him yeah he has it's definitely taken a personal toll on him [8:39] and I don't know there have been some rumors that perhaps he regrets his decision and I think perhaps [8:44] having something like this probably reinforces he you know it's a good time to leave he he you [8:49] know a reminder that actually you don't want to have to preside over these sorts of unfortunate [8:54] situations although I do think and with some justification both here and he and the chairman [8:59] of the board Samir Shah will feel that this is definitely a sign of their process is working that [9:04] decision fast that's one of the things we've always criticized them for in the previous [9:08] scandals it takes so long to make a decision oh let's look into it let's find out let's investigate [9:13] a bit more let's check out our processes let's do this let's do that no in this situation make [9:18] the decision and out he goes and then just a word on Scott Mills's career in in this building and [9:25] many other BBC buildings because he was here for a very very long time 1998. yeah so he is somebody [9:32] who has you know really really achieved [9:34] brilliantly right so age 16 he was actually the youngest radio presenter in the UK when he got a [9:42] job on I think it was called power FM in Hampshire so it's like a teen local radio star who then when [9:48] he gets into the BBC it does do you know really really well and at radio one people will remember [9:55] those kind of pranks that he used to do with celebrities he persuaded Jennifer Aniston to [10:01] give his mate a sort of nightmare interview uh he [10:04] played innuendo bingo which he claimed Prince William was a fan of where him and his friend [10:11] Chris Stark and a celebrity guest sort of play out innuendos while trying to keep their mouths [10:16] full of water so he was a sort of popular peasant and and clearly somebody that the BBC rated because [10:22] when the BBC rates somebody they try to give them higher you know more roles and sort of promote [10:28] them so that it's a sort of I don't mean self-defeating do I a self-perpetuating prophecy [10:34] that's the thing where self-fulfilling self-fulfilling sorry maybe I'll get my brain [10:39] working by the end of this conversation but yeah so so he present got to present Eurovision and has [10:44] done for for years he was a competitor on Strictly Come Dancing I think back in 2014. in 2024 he won [10:52] celebrity race across the world with his now husband so he's been you know put out there or [10:58] cross BBC channels and you know on iPlayer and whatever as somebody as a face of the BBC and he [11:03] earned a substantial amount of money [11:04] and he did really well and then you know culminating in getting this breakfast show gig [11:09] from when when Zoe Ball said she was going to step down this Radio 2 breakfast show that you [11:14] know the biggest breakfast show in the country suddenly like that it's over you're on air on [11:19] Tuesday and then Wednesday you're taken off air or you don't appear again and then that's it you're [11:25] sacked by the weekend so the BBC will have to find a new person to front that very very high profile [11:30] slot Gary Davis has been filling in for the last few days [11:34] was also going to be hosting the spin-off podcast of the new series of race across the world well see [11:40] I didn't yes and top info and Eurovision is coming up so a new voice um to present some of the [11:46] Eurovision coverage because he usually does a semi-final doesn't he yeah with Ryland um and [11:51] then I wonder well I suppose it depends if more stuff emerges or whether the guarantees of people's [11:57] privacy that we have in the UK especially when it comes to HR means that actually people can ask a [12:02] lot of questions but there might not be a lot of answers [12:04] yeah I think that's the key thing and for the BBC it's has it contained the scandal is this it [12:11] nothing more emerges he's gone move on that would be I assume how they hope it plays out but if we [12:18] get this sort of drip drip drip of people coming out of the woodwork and saying xyz about him then [12:23] it becomes something that continues to lead the headlines and and make make make the front pages [12:29] potentially and that that that's all a problem and of course Scott Mills when he was at the BBC was [12:35] called license fee payers money as a salary yes according to the last annual report he's the BBC's [12:41] 11th biggest earner on around between 355 000 and 359 999 now that's obviously the public service [12:50] side of things that on the on the studio side they don't uh have to announce how much people [12:54] hope for the commercial arm exactly the commercial arm we don't know really what people earn but but [12:59] on the public service side he is the 11th biggest earner and have have you managed to get in touch [13:05] with Scott Mills as representatives no we've tried I mean I don't know what the latest is [13:09] obviously because we've approached the agent and perhaps while I've been editing for various [13:13] programs we've heard but I don't believe we have and we certainly haven't managed to make contact [13:16] with Scott Mills right Katie thank you very much thanks Adam let's get an update now on the US and [13:22] Israeli war against Iran and is often the way the update comes from Donald Trump posting on [13:27] truth social and the post he put there on Monday morning is kind of in two bits the first bit is [13:36] serious discussions underway with a new and more reasonable regime in Tehran so he obviously feels [13:42] he's achieved something a bit like regime change there but the second part is him ramping up the [13:48] pressure militarily and basically if saying if he doesn't get what he wants threatening to blow up [13:53] electric generating plants oil wells and karg Island which is a crucial bit of Iran's oil [14:03] exporting infrastructure so let's join some of the [14:06] dots and try and unthread some of the threads about what might be going on joining me here in [14:12] the studio returning from his travels is the BBC diplomatic correspondent James Landale hello James [14:17] hello Adam uh how long have you been back from Ukraine well it feels like a month but it's [14:21] actually only a week or so and when you're in Ukraine kind of in the midst of one war are you [14:26] able to keep across another war at the same time how does it work I mean actually the the longer I [14:31] was there the more I realized that these two conflicts were bleeding into one another not [14:36] I mean you know not in a way that um from a sort of clearly the Ukrainians and the Europeans would [14:41] be making a strong argument that they are part of a broader war that actually there are linkages [14:46] between Iran and Russia obviously but actually just it's been fascinating to watch Ukraine and [14:54] the government there responds to this you know mixed opinion you know fearful of being ignored [14:59] you know is Ukraine going to become a forgotten war also trying to be helpful to the rest of the [15:06] world to be helpful and learning to be a strategic actor in their own right offering advice how they [15:11] do that the complications of of dealing with the Gulf forming new relationships which because if [15:17] you think the culture between Ukraine and the Gulf you know that there's an awful lot of cultural [15:20] hurdles to get over there so it's been fascinating to watch that and it was really interesting [15:24] speaking to Stephanie Flanders our old colleague last week on newscast when she was talking about [15:28] the increased level of strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure because of course [15:33] Russia is benefiting from the conflicts [15:36] and as a result Ukraine is now coming under pressure to reduce some of those uh strikes [15:41] because from countries that are worried about the the rising price of oil so yeah it everything flows [15:46] into everything also joining us today defense editor of The Economist Shashank Joshi hello [15:51] Shashank hello good afternoon thank you for having me I I see James's two wars and I raised him three [15:57] I've got I've got Ukraine I've got uh Iran of course and I'm also keeping an eye on the bit [16:02] that no one's talking about which is the Afghanistan Pakistan war taking place [16:06] just to the east of Iran so um we're unfortunately in a time of uh great turmoil do you know what we [16:12] might get a little sidebar from you on that third one a bit later on in this episode but let's zoom [16:16] in on the on the Gulf then uh Shashank I've just been hearing one place name all weekend it's an [16:23] island in the Persian Gulf and it's called Karg Island why is that suddenly become so important [16:28] well it's interesting because Harg Island has always been really important uh it's responsible [16:33] for about 90 percent of Iran's oil exports [16:36] uh as a terminal and a hub for getting them out that's changed a little bit we can go into the [16:41] details but actually it's always been very important to Iran for that reason and so it's [16:44] always been it's almost like one of those places in military history you know like the East bits [16:49] of Eastern Europe that gets crisscrossed with invasions again and again it was um you know [16:53] attacked by Saddam Hussein bombed in the 80s uh Jimmy Carter considered invading and occupying [16:59] it after the Iranian hostage crisis you you'll remember um it was um Ronald Reagan considered [17:06] destroying oil facilities in the 80s over the tanker war when Iran was destroying tankers and [17:11] now Donald Trump has said having already bombed it that he may consider trying to seize it and [17:18] so it's back at the forefront of these Middle Eastern conflicts and James what's our theory [17:22] about why it would be in Donald Trump's interests either to raise the idea of taking Harg Island or [17:28] actually just taking it well I mean it's a really good question because it's not as as obvious as [17:33] you might think um if you look because it doesn't automatically reopen [17:36] the Strait of Hormuz for example no I mean look the overt reason is that um because this island [17:42] is is the source of a substantial amount of revenue for the Iranian government and the IRGC [17:49] the Revolutionary Guard Corps the argument is that by seizing this island you then control and cut off [17:56] this huge source of revenue for the regime and its war machine and you essentially gain a negotiating [18:06] the United States they leverage leverage um to try and say to the Tehran right okay you've got to do a [18:11] deal over over ending the war and you've got to reopen the straight that's the thesis but if you [18:15] I was what struck me from the interview that Donald Trump did with the uh with uh the Financial Times [18:21] over the weekend was actually the way he was talking about that way we can get the oil and [18:27] the the the journalists at the FT who did that interview said on the BBC that that the impression [18:33] that he got from the president was if uppermost in his mind [18:36] um was the Venezuela operation where clearly there is a sort of energy uh for economic benefit that [18:45] uh the United States can get from that quite how he thinks the US is going to benefit economically [18:50] from this um might give us a little insight into some of the other motivations that he's gone yeah [18:56] because I thought on on first reading of his truth social post I thought yeah it's the it's the [19:00] leverage point it's a threat of if you don't do what I want in a diplomatic process this is the [19:06] way [19:06] the military process will escalate. [19:10] But actually, it does seem that there's more of a kind of mercantile calculation going on in his mind. [19:15] I mean, there are other options as well. [19:16] I mean, you know, Shashank will tell you, sort of, you know, [19:19] surprise is often considered a good thing in military operations. [19:23] And heaven knows there's no sense of surprise involving this particular island. [19:26] So the fact that so much has been talked about this has raised some speculation. [19:31] Is there some, you know, is this just a bluff? [19:34] Is there some deception operation going on here? [19:37] Is this simply nothing more than an attempt to put pressure on the Iranians? [19:40] Say, look, you know, there are potential costs down the line. [19:43] Therefore, it'd be better for you to negotiate now. [19:46] But Shashank, if it is a bluff by Donald Trump, [19:48] he's putting a lot of effort into sustaining the bluff [19:51] because he's sending all these Marines to the region, many of whom have arrived. [19:55] And Marines are the kind of troops you would want if you were going to seize an island. [19:59] Well, yes and no. He's sending these Marine expeditionary units. [20:02] One of them is in the region already from Japan. [20:04] That's the 31st M.E.U. [20:06] There's another one called the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. [20:09] That's on its way from California. [20:10] I think that's still a couple of weeks away. [20:12] And those, of course, are, you know, optimized for one thing, [20:15] which is getting boots on beaches, as they say. [20:18] The only thing is, if you were trying to seize Haag Island [20:21] and I don't want to give unsolicited military advice to Mr. [20:23] Trump, I don't think you'd do it from the beaches. [20:26] I don't think you would want to send in lots of ships [20:28] through the Strait of Hormuz and the other way for very obvious reasons [20:31] that they'd be pummeled with missiles. [20:33] I think if there is an operation, you know, [20:34] operation on Haag Island, you'd be looking at an airborne operation, [20:37] an air assault, because you also have the 82nd Airborne in the region. [20:42] These, of course, are, you know, paratroopers. [20:43] And you can look back at American operations against airfields in Panama, Grenada. [20:48] They could seize the airfield and then bring in more forces by by by by air. [20:53] That still has its own problems. [20:54] The only thing I want to clarify in all this discussion is on taking the oil. [20:58] Let's be very clear. [20:59] Haag is an oil terminal. [21:01] You know, you get oil from the mainland. [21:03] It is sent by [21:04] a pipeline to the island and then exported. [21:07] You seize the island, you control the transit hub. [21:09] You can shut the oil supply off, although there are also three other sites [21:13] further south that you'd also probably have to seize. [21:15] What you don't have is a sort of free flow of oil. [21:18] The Iranians will shut it off and you've then got to get the oil on tankers, [21:21] get it out of Hormuz yourself. [21:22] And why would the Iranians let you do that? [21:24] So America was what I'm trying to say is America can take this island. [21:27] It can halt the flow of oil. [21:29] It really, really cannot do what it did in Venezuela, which is say, by the way, [21:33] now selling Iranian oil on an ongoing basis. [21:37] Shashank, one quick thought. [21:38] If it were an airborne operation, [21:42] would the United States require some kind of forward operating base [21:47] in the present, potentially in a regional ally [21:52] that would have to allow the US to to sort of base a lot of its forces [21:56] that could then be used as a staging post before they get to to Haag Island? [22:00] Yeah, absolutely. [22:02] I think that you would need search and rescue assets in the region. [22:06] You look at the V-22 Osprey, which is this fascinating plane. [22:10] It's sort of used by Marines. [22:11] It's got a pretty long range and it can sort of it's like a heli can fly [22:15] like a helicopter and also fly like a plane. [22:18] It's tilt rotor. It can tilt. [22:19] You may have seen it, you know, in presidential visits to the UK and things like that. [22:23] You would almost certainly need, you know, Persian Gulf bases [22:28] access to those facilities to get an operation in. [22:31] And you'd also want to. [22:32] Supply Haag by ship from the other side of the Gulf, [22:35] even if you don't bring in ships through Hormuz, you'd want to get some across [22:38] from the Gulf. [22:38] So I think this operation doesn't really work [22:42] unless you have a pretty decent degree of cooperation from Bahrain, [22:46] the Emiratis, others. [22:49] I think you need quite a lot of help in sustaining that air bridge. [22:52] That really is the problem, by the way, because Iran will be firing at your runways. [22:57] It will be firing at your ships coming across. [22:59] So even if you can land paratroopers on the island, [23:02] they then need short range air defenses. [23:04] They need fuel, they need ammunition, and all of that has to be supplied. [23:08] And that supply line is what becomes the vulnerability for the Americans. [23:12] Of course, there's another option that you could use those troops for, [23:15] which would be to land on the beaches in the Persian Gulf on the Iranian mainland. [23:21] If you were trying to take out things that were threatening [23:23] the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. [23:26] You could, though. [23:28] And of course, it helps if you're going after missile launchers that are buried in these nooks [23:33] and crannies of the craggy Persian Gulf coastline, [23:36] you know, hidden in caves, hidden in underground facilities. [23:39] You might want Marines or special forces conducting raids ashore [23:44] to try to root those out and find them, enable them to be bombed. [23:48] And not all of that stuff is easily visible or bombable from the air. [23:52] However, two caveats to that. [23:54] Number one, there is 1500 kilometers of Persian Gulf coastline. [23:59] Look, you know, America is not going to be occupying all of that. [24:02] Secondly, [24:03] a lot of the strikes on shipping are not coming from things hidden on the coast. [24:08] They're coming from Shaheed drones. [24:10] And as you probably know very well by now, Shaheed can fly a long way. [24:14] I think they can fly, you know, 1500 kilometers, more than that. [24:17] You can fire these things from deep inside Iran, [24:20] and nobody is invading a thousand kilometers into Iran to stop that. [24:24] So that's the military track. [24:26] James, what have you managed to gleam about the diplomatic track? [24:28] It's still quite murky, isn't it? [24:31] Well, it is what it is. [24:33] You know, messages are being passed. [24:35] You know, we can have a semantic conversation about whether or not that [24:38] that amounts to a form of negotiation. [24:41] But there is a form of communication largely through the Pakistani government. [24:45] There have been talks there in recent days with some regional foreign ministers, [24:50] you know, the Turks and the Saudis and the Egyptians and others. [24:54] So, you know, conversations are taking place. [24:57] And yes, Donald Trump repeatedly says the talks are going well and progress is being made. [25:03] He uses that phrase talks. [25:05] But both sides are still seemingly fixed into pretty maximalist positions. [25:14] So the gap between both sides is huge. [25:17] And neither side seems to be in that position yet where they feel they've exhausted military options, [25:25] which is when, of course, those kind of conversations take place. [25:28] But, you know, there are factors out there. [25:30] You know, there is obviously the global economic situation. [25:33] there is the political situation in the United States and whether that has an [25:37] impact on American thinking there is also you know again you know that we [25:44] shouldn't ignore this the thinking that's going on in Tehran one of the [25:48] curious aspects of this conflict is just how how hard it is to report what's [25:53] going on think about it all sides are keeping a pretty tight control over what [25:59] messaging is put out there which is why it feels a bit like a computer game [26:02] some days yeah because you know even even you know and even in the Gulf where [26:09] they're receiving quite a lot of fire from the Iranians coverage of that is [26:12] hard because of the rules about oh yeah because filming it on your phone is [26:15] illegal is now is now illegal we're obviously getting you know limited [26:19] access out of Tehran because of the internet shut such shuts down so and you [26:24] know and the Americans at the moment we're largely reliant on a commander in [26:29] chief who who speaks a great deal but of [26:31] occasionally [26:32] you know [26:32] in contradictory sentences could I add a word to that excellent point by James [26:36] which is not only all of that is true but one of the other ways that I and [26:40] other defense correspondents traditionally looked at these conflicts [26:44] was through commercial satellite images of the ground you know that's how we [26:48] know for example that's been American very expensive AWACS radar plane was [26:54] destroyed in Saudi Arabia on Friday but what's happening is the fog of war is [26:59] descending over that as well because American satellite companies are [27:02] saying hang on we don't want to help Iran target its missiles they are [27:06] shutting down supply access to images you know one of the well-known [27:10] company's PLANET animal sure it's always been very very open has put a [27:13] 14-day delay on images coming out and Chinese companies are filling a little [27:18] bit of that vacuum with images of their own so are some European companies but [27:22] if I wanted to call up a picture of you know USAir bases across the Persian Gulf [27:28] near hague Island right now from this morning most American companies would say [27:32] sorry, I'm not giving you that. So that really is making it hard for us to track this conflict in [27:36] the way that we could have done even a few weeks ago. Interesting. And James, as the sort of that [27:41] the map of the conflict expands, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, they've become involved in the last few [27:46] days, having previously sort of stepped back a bit. Yeah, they've been sort of one of the dogs [27:51] that hadn't barked so far in this particular conflict. And, you know, obviously, you know, [27:57] they are players, they are, you know, loosely aligned to Iran, they're not quite as sort of [28:04] directly controlled by Iran as say, you know, Hezbollah or other organisations. But they have [28:11] in recent days, stepped up attacks on Israel, they've threatened to close their own straits [28:19] on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula with the Red Sea. They've yet to do it in this immediate [28:26] context. But obviously, they've done it. [28:27] They've done it a great deal in recent years until a peace deal. But at the moment, so that threat [28:33] sort of hangs over another key choke point through which a substantial chunk of the world's oil, [28:41] I think about 10% of the world's oil passes through that. There's the substantial amount, [28:45] obviously, from Saudi Arabia that passes through. And yet, it's one of those, I think sometimes when [28:52] you have a conflict like this, you become very focused on the here and now and you forget [28:56] sometimes that [28:57] there are there is a huge capacity for escalation, you know, so for example, the Houthis have not gone [29:03] hard in yet. There has been some activity by pro Iranian militias in Iraq, but there's there's [29:10] greater capacity for them to become more active players. There is the possibility of Gulf countries [29:17] actually fighting back against Iran. At the moment, they're just defending [29:22] Although that possibility has been discussed for quite a few days now. And it hasn't happened yet. [29:26] But but it's your point. [29:27] It's your point about unpredictability. People have different triggers, and we never quite know [29:31] where the trigger point might be. [29:32] And we and we always think that an unlikely thing is unlikely until it happens. And then suddenly, [29:37] it becomes Oh, that's happened, has it? And I think the capacity for this to escalate is always there. [29:45] Shashank, my latest obsession is this idea that after this is done, whatever this is, and whatever [29:50] done is, we end up with a situation where effectively, there's an Iranian controlled toll [29:55] booth on the Strait of Hormuz. [29:57] And whoever the regime is in Iran chooses which ships go through it at what volume, and how much [30:04] they have to pay to get through. Now, that then becomes a global issue of freedom of navigation of [30:10] the seas because your country is not really allowed to do that. That's what you can do in medieval [30:14] Times, you can't, you can't do it now, then that would become Oh, Kirstarmer problem, maybe. [30:18] Well, this is extraordinary. I mean, two weeks ago, US official messaged me and said, [30:23] don't forget the toll booth risk exactly as you say and they said they gave me two interesting examples. These are the numbers and the costs of being on board. [30:24] But is this going to get much worse? [30:25] And I'm not saying we're going to have to pay too much to get to that point. But it's going to get much better. [30:25] you say. And they said, they gave me two interesting examples. One of them was the Bosphorus, which [30:29] of course, you know, sort of in Turkey's influence. And the other one is Suez, Suez Canal and the [30:37] way that's controlled waterway. And this is a huge problem. Freedom of navigation has [30:41] been at the core of the international system for hundreds of years. You know, it goes back [30:45] to Hugo Grotius, the Dutch jurist. It's such a fundamental idea. But the really worrying [30:50] bit is not just that Iran's in control. It's that America doesn't care. You know, today [30:54] we heard the view that Trump's saying we could end this by bombing everything in Iran [30:58] and leaving. No suggestion he would leave by opening Hormuz. And worse than that, actually, [31:03] about a week ago, and I know he throws spaghetti to the wall and sees what sticks, but it was [31:07] still very troubling to me. He said, I might jointly control Hormuz with the Ayatollah. [31:12] And by the way, this provoked one of the great memes. And I no way am endorsing Iranian state [31:17] media or Iran's government. But the meme that Iran's embassy in South Africa published was [31:21] a picture of a car, the caption saying, [31:23] I will jointly control Hormuz with the Ayatollah. And then a picture of a little children's steering [31:29] wheel stuck to the passenger side. So they're mocking this. But more seriously, for Europeans, [31:34] we are seeing America, the country that opened up global sea lanes, kept them open for world [31:38] commerce, essentially abandoned the concept of freedom of navigation, and indeed, perhaps [31:43] collude in efforts to completely overturn it. And I think that the likes of China in [31:47] the South China Sea and others will be looking at this really delighted. [31:51] And James, I know you've got to go, which you'll be gutted about, [31:53] because we're just about to get into a conversation about Hugo Grotius, and why he was such an [31:57] important figure when he was alive from 1583 to 1645. [32:01] It does allow me to escape without having to tell you about how I once swam the Bosporus. [32:07] So I'm quite aware of that particular pinch point. [32:12] And also coming back to the Dutch in ancient history, I mean, Haarge Island, where we started [32:17] off was a Dutch possession, wasn't it? In the 18th century? [32:22] I didn't even know that. You've told me that. [32:23] I've gone further back. [32:24] Straight away. I didn't know that. [32:26] I've gone further back on the internet than you have today, Shashank. [32:29] Yeah, you've lost me. Sorry. [32:30] James, I'm gonna let you go. But thank you very much. Good to see you back. [32:33] Thank you so much. [32:34] And Shashank, just picking up on that point you were raising about the other conflicts [32:37] that people aren't talking about so much, just give a very quick rundown of why we should [32:41] care about Pakistan and Afghanistan being in conflict. [32:45] I mean, sure, look, this is a full fledged war, really, because Pakistan accuses the [32:51] Afghan government, the Taliban, of sheltering a group of people in Afghanistan. And it's [32:52] not just the Taliban, it's the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, [32:53] the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the [32:54] Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the Taliban, the [32:55] Taliban, the Taliban We're seeing a group known as the Pakistani [32:57] Taliban or the TTP, and they've conducted a suicide bombing, very nasty one a few weeks [33:01] ago. Pakistan then attacked Afghanistan. And we're seeing air strikes inside Afghanistan. [33:06] We're seeing the Taliban send drones back towards Pakistani cities. And now we're seeing [33:12] Pakistani shelling of eastern Afghan cities. So this has humanitarian consequences. We [33:18] saw a really nasty Pakistani airstrike just a week ago that killed hundreds of people [33:23] when they seem to have hit the wrong spots. [33:24] target and of course there's refugee implications you know massive displaced populations here lots [33:30] of afghans in pakistan who are now displaced again so this is the sort of thing adam that [33:35] would have been front page news two years ago three years ago but in our crazy times [33:40] gets completely lost and it might have less kind of like direct political or economic consequences [33:45] here in the uk but back to james's point about conflict breeds instability and unpredictability [33:50] which can get worse well i'll give you an example of how these things are weirdly connected right i [33:55] mean so um normally you think this is quite separate to iran and the iran war but pakistan [34:01] of course under the new military leader uh field marshal asim munir is very close to donald trump [34:07] and trump indeed has been calling him and talking to him about mediating iran talks as james will [34:11] know very well um and so america is looking very favorably upon pakistan right now and has backed [34:19] the pakistanis in their campaign [34:20] you [34:20] in afghanistan again that wouldn't have happened 10 years ago when the americans were quite [34:24] irritated with pakistan for their support for the afghan taliban weirdly enough and things have [34:29] changed and so the these conflicts become intertwined in some quite curious and strange [34:34] ways and shashank just to go back to the gulf as we end the conversation is there a particular [34:39] aspect to this or place or thing or potential event that you've got your eye on that maybe is [34:46] a bit under the radar for everyone else i would just watch the build-up let's see what the [34:50] battle of the gulf looks like [34:52] it's a pretty small force right now you know the marines i talked about there's several [34:57] thousand marines but there's only really a battalion's worth you know 800 900 worth [35:01] of actual combat-capable forces there's only a handful of f-35s on this unit so they can't [35:07] do all that much so we need to see how big does that airborne component get how many [35:13] cargo planes are coming into the region where are they going where are they staging that [35:17] will tell us something about the scope of what they're doing in terms of the capability [35:19] of the Elder Brisbane Air Force and in particular how they're gonna get the most out of that [35:20] and that'll be the great question if you don't take them away before you get on the plane and [35:20] then they're gonna get a new job so it's going to be a really big challenge in terms of having a space [35:20] what Donald Trump is going to be in a position to do. [35:23] Shashank, thank you very much. [35:25] Thank you so much.