Back from the brink: The Iran ceasefire — The Global Story

[0:00] From the BBC, this is The Global Story, and I'm Tristan Redmond in London. [0:05] As we record this, it's 9 a.m. on Wednesday here in London, 4 a.m. in Washington, D.C. [0:12] Donald Trump made a last-minute announcement last night, [0:17] which means this is something of a breaking news, rough-and-ready episode. [0:21] Thank you, Tristan. [0:56] Share with us. Let's start off with the ceasefire, [1:01] and then we can go back to the events that preceded it. What do we know? [1:04] Well, we were all waiting, weren't we, with bated breath. [1:07] The world was waiting late last night for the 1 a.m. in the U.K., [1:12] 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time deadline that Donald Trump had set. [1:16] And then about an hour, 90 minutes, an hour before we began to get the rumor [1:21] that, you know, there's going to be a ceasefire, and he announced it. [1:25] He announced that there would be, as he called it, a double-sided ceasefire. [1:29] Both sides had agreed to it. [1:30] He hailed it as a great day for peace in the Middle East. [1:35] And at the same time, a little bit later, actually, [1:38] Iran announced that, through the foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, [1:43] that Iran would also agree to a ceasefire if the attacks, [1:47] if the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran are halted. [1:52] And so they went to the brink, as it were, and it really looked very bleak early yesterday evening. [1:59] It didn't look as if there would be a ceasefire. [2:01] And then suddenly, Trump made that announcement. [2:05] What do we know about who the United States is actually negotiating with? [2:09] Because there's been so much information and counter-information over the last few weeks [2:14] about the state of those negotiations. [2:16] What do we know? [2:17] Well, we know that Pakistan is the interlocutor, is the intermediary. [2:22] And we know also that Donald Trump has a good relationship, [2:25] both with the Pakistani prime minister, Shabazz Sharif, [2:29] and also with Field Marshal Munir, Asim Munir, [2:33] who is the head of the armed forces in Pakistan. [2:35] There is a personal relationship, and it's always very important, [2:37] especially with Donald Trump, those personal relationships. [2:40] And so Pakistan offered to try to bring the two sides together, [2:44] not physically in the same room, but to be the intermediary [2:47] and to negotiate in that way. [2:50] And it really didn't look as if it was working. [2:52] The U.S. put forward a 15-point plan. [2:55] Iran put forward a 10-point plan. [2:58] And it seemed as if it wasn't going anywhere. [3:00] The usual people from the U.S. side were rumoured to be involved, [3:03] and some were confirmed. [3:05] Steve Whitcoff, President Trump's envoy, [3:08] his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and also J.D. Vance, [3:12] the vice president, was very important in this. [3:14] So it sort of went dark for a bit. [3:16] And then suddenly we heard that over the weekend, Sunday, [3:20] the talks were intensifying, [3:22] and there was a chance of a deal being done. [3:24] And then those hopes were dashed again. [3:25] But we know, obviously, that Pakistan did somehow manage [3:29] to exchange those 10- and 15-point plans [3:32] and come back with a 10-point plan from Iran, [3:36] which Donald Trump had already been saying [3:38] was there were substantive things in it, [3:41] substantive issues that could result in a deal. [3:45] So I think it seems that Pakistan [3:46] has played a very, very strong and successful hand [3:50] if the ceasefire holds, [3:52] but at least to get us to the point [3:53] when Donald Trump's threats [3:55] as to what was going to happen to Iran [3:57] have at least been pushed now. [3:59] The can's been kicked down the road, if you like. [4:02] What do we know about what's in that 10-point plan? [4:04] Because our colleague Jeremy Bowen this morning, [4:08] early Wednesday, has already been talking about [4:11] how some of the points in that 10-point plan [4:14] may not be entirely to the liking of the United States, [4:19] and yet they seem to be the basis for progress. [4:22] Yes, and I think one of the most important points [4:24] in that 10-point plan, the most, [4:27] and that's the one that Donald Trump was fixed on, [4:29] is what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. [4:32] Will the Iranians open it fully? [4:35] And the foreign minister said in the statement [4:38] that went with the 10-point plan [4:40] that for a period of two weeks, [4:42] there would be safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. [4:45] But he added it would only take place [4:47] via coordination with Iran's armed forces [4:50] and would do considerations of technical limitations. [4:53] Well, what does that mean? [4:54] Does it mean the Iranian military [4:56] have to allow each and every tanker to pass through? [4:59] And what will that mean for insurance, for example, [5:02] and the willingness of oil containers [5:05] and oil tankers and gas [5:06] to actually pass through the straits? [5:07] So that's one of the things in the 10-point plan. [5:10] It also covers cessation of war totally, [5:13] ending all conflicts in the region, [5:16] compensation for reconstruction, [5:18] and a commitment to lifting sanctions. [5:20] These are the main issues within that 10-point plan, [5:23] but first and foremost is what happens [5:25] in the Strait of Hormuz. [5:27] Which is the big one. [5:28] What are the other unknowns, though, at this stage? [5:31] The other big unknown is what happens in the region. [5:34] Israel has been striking Lebanon hard and furiously [5:38] for weeks now with the aim of degrading [5:42] the ability of Hezbollah to strike at Israel. [5:46] Hezbollah was the first to hit at Israel [5:48] in this recent conflict. [5:50] Hezbollah is a proxy or a friend, an ally of Iran. [5:54] So what isn't clear is that the Pakistanis seem to have said [5:58] when this was agreed that part of the deal [6:00] was that the attacks on Lebanon, [6:03] that Israel would desist from striking Hezbollah, [6:06] and indeed Hezbollah desists from striking Israel. [6:09] But that isn't apparently Israel's view, [6:13] or certainly as we're sitting here speaking, [6:14] obviously things are changing all the time, [6:16] but Netanyahu has made it clear that Lebanon is not included [6:20] or Hezbollah is not included in the agreement for a ceasefire [6:23] and that Israel will obviously keep on with the attacks in Lebanon. [6:27] What is the significance of that, though? [6:29] What's the kind of worst-case scenario? [6:31] If the Hezbollah conflict carries on, [6:34] how could that play into what's going on [6:37] between the United States and Iran? [6:38] Well, I think this brings into play the whole question [6:42] of what was the relationship, what is the relationship, [6:45] and the war aims of Israel and the United States. [6:49] Are they different? [6:50] And if so, what will that mean? [6:52] And they are slightly different, [6:54] because right from the beginning, [6:56] Israel's avowed number one aim is regime change, [6:59] to change the regime that they consider [7:00] to be an existential threat to Israel. [7:03] So for Israel, that's still, I think, a main, main aim, [7:07] as is getting rid of the power of the proxies of Hezbollah. [7:12] But for America, it's been replaced, obviously, [7:14] with the Straits of Hormuz, number one, [7:16] and with the nuclear and the missile capabilities of Iran. [7:20] So we are seeing a bit of a divergence. [7:22] The key thing is I personally feel that Israel [7:25] is the junior partner in this. [7:26] It would be quite hard for Israel to continue, [7:29] certainly against Iran, [7:31] and even potentially against Hezbollah. [7:34] If the senior partner, Donald Trump, [7:37] didn't want that to happen. [7:39] So I think we're going to see that situation develop [7:41] over the next 24 hours. [7:43] Well, what's the significance of that potential daylight [7:45] between Israeli and US aims? [7:48] We're always looking for daylight as journalists in this way. [7:52] But what does it mean if Israel and the United States [7:56] see things slightly differently? [7:58] Well, obviously, well, then the war may continue. [8:01] The ceasefire may not be realistic. [8:04] What would Iran's reaction be if it believes, [8:07] and America believes, [8:08] that a cessation of conflict in Lebanon is part of it [8:12] and Israel continues that conflict? [8:15] Iran will presumably then start, [8:17] could then start to hit Israel. [8:18] So I think they'll have to be in step. [8:21] And I do think that at the end of the day, [8:23] Netanyahu will bow to the will of Donald Trump in this. [8:27] But it may continue for a few days yet, [8:29] because as with all ceasefires, [8:31] it takes a while for everybody out on the ground to understand, [8:34] to get the military instructions. [8:36] And we know that in Iran in particular, [8:38] before the war began, [8:39] they were ready for this. [8:41] So they delegated responsibility to field commanders [8:44] in all the provinces. [8:46] And of course, now it's quite difficult to inform them all, [8:49] particularly with the strikes [8:50] and the number of people that have been killed [8:52] in the military apparatus. [8:53] It's quite hard to get the message out [8:55] to all those commanders [8:57] that the time has come to cease operations. [8:59] So I think we're going to see a couple of days [9:01] where things are a little messy, [9:03] and we don't quite know where the ceasefire is going, [9:06] not just with regard to Israel-Lebanon, [9:08] but also with regard to Iran continuing, [9:11] as it has done this morning, [9:13] to fire missiles at its Gulf neighbours. [9:15] It's still early days, as we're talking, [9:17] but how is this deal being framed [9:20] by the different parties in the conflict? [9:23] They're both claiming victory. [9:26] And Donald Trump has said it's a great day for world peace, [9:29] and the Iranians have said the same, [9:31] that they believe that this is a great victory. [9:34] I mean, they brought, the government brought its supporters out yesterday [9:38] when the threat was that the civilisation would die overnight, [9:43] the threat from Trump. [9:43] They brought them out to the bridges, [9:46] which were going to be the focus of the next wave of strikes, [9:50] with flags, chanting. [9:52] So we saw a sort of sense that the Iranian regime [9:55] had already claimed victory, [9:56] had already said to its people, [9:58] you know, we have got something out of this. [10:00] And that's, I think, what those demonstrations showed, [10:02] though it has to be said they were probably the regime supporters [10:06] who are, we know, are in the minority within Iran. [10:09] We're not hearing from the great bulk of the majority of people [10:14] who are, we have to presume, are just staying, [10:16] trying to stay safe indoors. [10:18] And, you know, I think it's interesting [10:20] that Israel has also been, you know, [10:24] trying to sort of push the envelope there. [10:26] We know that Donald Trump was going to attack, [10:31] he said, bridges and he was going to attack power stations. [10:35] And it was very interesting yesterday [10:36] that while the war was still in full swing [10:39] and America hadn't carried out that threat, [10:42] we actually saw Israel hitting a number of bridges within Iran, [10:47] eight in total. [10:48] And we received a briefing on that. [10:51] On Tuesday, this was. [10:51] Yeah, this was on Tuesday [10:52] and they were very widely spread throughout the country. [10:56] It wasn't just Tehran. [10:58] Israel said that these were bridges [11:00] which were enabling the Islamic Revolutionary Guard [11:03] to move weapons, to move men, to move material, [11:07] and therefore they considered them to be a justified target. [11:12] But they took out, as they said, sections of eight bridges. [11:15] Well, of course, they're effectively taking the bridge out [11:17] because they're taking a great chunk out of it. [11:19] And I'm wondering if could that have been the push [11:23] at the last minute [11:24] that sent the Iranians negotiators through Pakistan [11:29] with the 10-point plan [11:31] to sort of try to realise that what could be done [11:35] when those eight bridges were hit by Israel on Tuesday? [11:38] But the suggestion is that those threats [11:41] may have worked in that case. [11:43] Is that what you're saying? [11:44] They may have worked. [11:45] Yeah, they may have worked. [11:46] A sort of two, we don't know, were Trump and Netanyahu [11:50] or their militaries discussing this, you know, [11:54] a threat from the US to destroy bridges [11:58] while the Israeli military is actually destroying bridges. [12:03] They would say IRGC bridges [12:05] or bridges that facilitate the flow of weapons for the IRGC. [12:09] But obviously eight bridges is a lot, isn't it? [12:12] And, you know, obviously nobody, trains stop running. [12:16] People were warned by Israel and Iran not to take trains. [12:19] I think people began to take it very, very seriously. [12:22] And that's step one. [12:23] And step two was going to be, [12:25] we'll take out all the electric power stations. [12:27] The nation will go dark. [12:28] And they began to see [12:30] how this might actually work in practice [12:32] and the devastating effects it would have on the country. [12:35] Well, and there have been other threats too. [12:38] I mean, it started during the weekend, [12:40] Easter weekend, I should add, [12:42] when Donald Trump posted a number of times on Truth Social. [12:47] He threatened to send Iran back to the Stone Ages. [12:50] There was an expletive-laden message that he posted. [12:53] And then on Tuesday, [12:57] the White House was actually forced to deny [12:59] that it was considering using nuclear weapons in Iran [13:03] when he made this comment about [13:06] the potential end of a civilisation happening overnight. [13:10] What did you make of that particular threat? [13:12] I think it was not unreasonable for people to believe [13:16] that perhaps there was a nuclear threat implicit in that. [13:19] I'm not sure it was ever meant to be that. [13:21] I think it's more of an example of Trump's hyperbole. [13:24] You know, he uses very, quite flowery [13:26] and over-the-top language. [13:28] But it obviously has had the desired effect. [13:31] And, you know, a couple of days ago, [13:33] President Trump was challenged in a press conference [13:35] about, before he made this final end of a civilisation remark, [13:39] he was challenged about why he used, [13:41] as I think the reporter put it, such abusive language. [13:44] And he said, it's to make a point. [13:47] He was very clear about it. [13:48] It's to make a point, that's why I do it. [13:50] And so there's a method to it. [13:54] There would seem to be a method to it, [13:56] at least in the president's mind. [13:58] I mean, the language is kind of apocalyptic, isn't it, [14:01] that we've heard, the ending of a civilisation. [14:03] And I think people were shocked. [14:05] They were shocked earlier at some of the tweets. [14:07] But it's been, he's ramped it up [14:09] and people have actually got to the point of thinking, [14:12] well, where do we go from here? [14:13] Well, the debate as to whether Donald Trump is, [14:17] on the one hand, a master negotiator [14:19] who's used this sort of tightening noose of pressure [14:22] to bring Iran to a deal, on the one hand, [14:26] or, on the other hand, [14:27] has used dangerous rhetoric [14:32] that cannot be put back in the box. [14:34] On the other, [14:35] is a debate that's going to be playing out, [14:37] we can imagine now, for the next few days. [14:39] Having suggested that there is some method [14:42] to this ramping up of rhetoric, [14:44] what's the case on the other side, Jane? [14:47] Well, you talk about, you know, [14:48] is this part of a negotiating tactic? [14:52] Was it a bluff at the end of the day? [14:53] I mean, we went right to the wire, didn't we, [14:56] 90 minutes before. [14:58] Was it a bluff? [14:59] Would he have struck? [15:01] I suppose that's what we don't know, [15:03] particularly because we know that his supporters, [15:06] by and large, [15:06] are not in favour of foreign and forever wars. [15:10] And this is going to be, [15:11] and will be, a problem for him [15:13] as the midterm elections approach in November. [15:16] So there was a bit of a, [15:17] there was definitely a timetable for Trump. [15:20] The timetable of an election in America, [15:22] and, of course, [15:23] the very pressing timetable [15:26] of what was happening in the markets, [15:28] in the price of oil and gas, [15:29] and what was happening to the stock market [15:31] and the bond market. [15:32] Well, I want to come, [15:32] I want to come to the markets question in a second, [15:34] but on the other side of the debate, [15:37] is Trump a master negotiator, [15:39] or was his language dangerous? [15:42] Was what Donald Trump said on Tuesday [15:44] potentially genocidal in nature, [15:47] as was suggested by a number of politicians [15:50] and commentators on Tuesday? [15:53] The jury is out, isn't it? [15:54] Because, yes, he did two things. [15:58] He made the end of a civilisation remark, [16:01] which is, as I've said, apocalyptic. [16:04] And, you know, many experts would say [16:07] that is the mark of a genocide, [16:09] that you get rid of a whole, [16:10] the mark of a genocide, [16:12] or definition, [16:12] is to get rid of a whole people. [16:15] And that's what that seems to imply. [16:17] And previous to that, [16:18] he'd been very specific [16:19] about what America would attack. [16:21] And those were civilian targets, [16:24] power plants and bridges, [16:26] you know, transport and energy. [16:29] And other scholars have said, [16:30] and I think that with some degree of accuracy, [16:34] that too is classified, [16:36] would be classified as a war crime, [16:38] because you are attacking [16:39] civilian infrastructure. [16:42] Donald Trump does not seem to have [16:44] had a problem with either of those remarks. [16:47] And, you know, as you say, [16:50] the debate will go on for a long time, [16:52] but technically both those remarks [16:54] would indicate, you know, [16:57] attacks on innocent civilians [16:59] and therefore war crimes. [17:01] Let's talk about markets, [17:03] because they've been in turmoil [17:05] for the last few weeks, [17:06] particularly the oil markets. [17:09] What's been the response [17:10] so far on Wednesday? [17:12] Well, immediately the price of oil fell [17:15] by about 15 percent. [17:17] Obviously, perhaps even while we're speaking, [17:18] it's maybe gone down or maybe up. [17:21] Gas by about 20 percent. [17:23] And I think this reflects the reality, [17:25] which is 20 percent of the world's oil and gas [17:28] passes through the Strait of Hormuz. [17:30] So that's we saw the markets adjusting immediately. [17:34] The stock market has yet to open in the States. [17:38] But, you know, this is a two week window. [17:41] We don't know what's going to happen [17:43] at that point. [17:45] So I would imagine that the markets will will will climb. [17:49] But of course, we know that Iran [17:51] is only going to allow shipping through [17:53] with the cooperation of the Iranian military. [17:56] So that's going to be patchy. [17:57] We're not suddenly going to get back to. [17:59] I think the normal flow [18:01] through the Strait of Hormuz [18:02] was 120 ships a day. [18:04] We're not going to get back to that overnight, [18:06] are we, or even within two weeks? [18:08] And we have yet to see what insurers [18:10] and owners of ships, [18:12] what their reaction is. [18:14] We don't know about the mining of the waters of mind. [18:18] We don't know what plans there are for warships [18:21] in the region, American or otherwise, [18:24] to escort vessels through. [18:26] These are all questions as yet unanswered. [18:29] So I think the oil markets have rebounded [18:31] because of the good news of the ceasefire. [18:33] But it's going to be a rocky road [18:35] for the next two weeks at least [18:37] until we know even if there is going to be [18:38] a longer term ceasefire. [18:41] Let's move on to talking about [18:43] what's actually been achieved in this conflict. [18:45] I mean, setting aside the question [18:47] of whether or not it's even over, [18:49] I mean, as we've discussed, [18:50] it could resume again. [18:52] There's been some remarkable reporting [18:56] from The New York Times in the last 24 hours, [18:59] which laid out the circumstances [19:01] in which Benjamin Netanyahu [19:04] traveled to Washington, [19:06] made a case to Donald Trump [19:09] and his administration [19:10] as to why the United States [19:13] should join Israel [19:14] in going to war against Iran. [19:17] And this reporting suggests [19:20] that regime change was a priority, [19:26] that pro-democracy demonstrations [19:29] could break out. [19:32] Now, if we fast forward to yesterday, [19:34] Tuesday, far from being [19:37] pro-democracy demonstrations, [19:39] we actually saw Iranians [19:42] in support of the government [19:43] demonstrating, I suppose, [19:46] on bridges near power plants [19:48] in reaction to the threats [19:50] against those infrastructure installations [19:52] by the Americans. [19:54] How much should we read into that? [19:57] I think that those are [19:59] pro-government demonstrations. [20:01] We've seen them happen [20:02] throughout these five weeks. [20:04] We've seen them on the streets of Tehran. [20:06] We've now seen them on bridges. [20:08] I think that is a minority. [20:10] It is the minority that is allowed to protest, [20:13] that is allowed to go to the streets. [20:14] The vast majority [20:16] would not be allowed to do that. [20:18] There would be a crackdown. [20:20] There have been remarkable pictures [20:22] coming out of Iran in recent days [20:24] of very threatening night-time patrols, [20:29] cars through the street. [20:31] You know, the message to the people [20:32] hidden in their houses, [20:33] the vast majority who might be the ones [20:36] that Israel had hoped would stand up [20:38] for regime change, [20:39] the message to them is don't dare. [20:42] And that has, I think, [20:44] been the problem right from the start. [20:45] You know, after the June war last year, [20:48] when Israel and America [20:50] hit the nuclear installations, [20:53] it was, in a sense, an unfinished job. [20:55] And I think that the protests in January, [20:58] where we saw so many Iranians [20:59] come onto the streets, [21:00] we know that between 6,000 and 7,000 [21:02] officially were killed, [21:04] possibly, probably a lot, [21:06] many, many more than that. [21:07] But that was put down [21:08] with extreme brutality. [21:10] That's the reality of life in Iran. [21:13] But those protests were possibly [21:16] what enabled Benjamin Netanyahu [21:18] to say to Donald Trump, [21:20] there is a cohort, [21:22] a strong cohort of pro-democracy, [21:24] angry people who want change, [21:26] young people. [21:27] And those visits that he made, [21:29] several visits in the early part of the year [21:32] to Donald Trump, [21:34] one in Mar-a-Lago, [21:34] one in Washington, [21:35] were obviously the moments [21:37] at which he put that case. [21:39] And in the early hours and days of the war, [21:42] Donald Trump said, [21:43] rise up and take your future [21:45] into your own hands. [21:46] But it became clear very quickly [21:48] that it wasn't going to be [21:50] as the Israelis had foretold [21:52] or had wished. [21:54] There wasn't going to be [21:55] a popular uprising [21:56] that would change the regime. [21:58] And therefore, [21:58] it became the very difficult conflict [22:03] which drew in the Gulf neighbours as well [22:06] and American bases across the region. [22:09] OK, so regime change [22:10] clearly has not been achieved. [22:12] There was a Khamenei in power in Iran [22:15] at the beginning of this conflict [22:16] and there is a Khamenei, [22:18] we believe, [22:19] still in charge now. [22:22] What has been achieved? [22:24] Well, from Iran's point of view, [22:26] what's been achieved [22:27] is an understanding [22:28] of the power that they have [22:29] in controlling the Strait of Hormuz. [22:33] It's ironic, isn't it, [22:34] that before the war, [22:36] everybody believes that Iran's strength [22:40] derived from its acquisition [22:42] and knowledge [22:42] and its ability potentially [22:44] to create at some point [22:46] a nuclear weapon [22:47] and its possession of 400 kilograms [22:49] of high enriched uranium. [22:51] But I think the proof of the reality [22:54] is that actually their real strength [22:58] is their geographical position [23:00] and their control over the Strait of Hormuz. [23:02] And I don't think that's going to go back [23:05] to the way that it was. [23:06] I think Iran will, [23:08] and it's clear from their 10-point plan, [23:10] that they will, you know, [23:11] still want control over the Strait [23:14] in some form or another, [23:15] possibly with Oman, [23:17] which sits on the other side of the Strait. [23:19] So that's a lesson learned [23:21] from Iran's point of view. [23:23] And from America's point of view, [23:25] the lesson that has to be learned, [23:27] and despite the fact that President Trump [23:29] keeps saying that there has been regime change [23:32] because there's a different set of people there, [23:34] the fact is they're potentially more extreme [23:36] and not very different [23:37] from the old set of people that were there, [23:40] I think from his point of view, [23:41] they've learned that regime change [23:43] is not easily achieved. [23:46] And perhaps he's learned that, [23:48] you know, the kind of language he's used [23:50] and the bluff [23:51] is also something that might, [23:54] you know, serve him well. [23:56] He's not had to use it [23:57] in quite that way before. [23:59] He didn't have to use it in Venezuela [24:01] when he unseated Maduro. [24:03] That was a very different operation. [24:05] He didn't use it, of course, [24:07] over the situation with Greenland [24:09] and Denmark and Europe, [24:11] but he's used it in Iran. [24:13] And I think the language [24:14] and the ability to go to the brink, [24:17] which is his trademark, [24:19] if you like, as a dealmaker, [24:20] is something that America has learned [24:22] on one hand, [24:24] but on the other hand, [24:25] they've learned that wars [24:27] are much more difficult to stop [24:29] than they are to start. [24:31] And of course, [24:32] that you don't have control [24:33] over the markets and the economy. [24:35] And that's the real shock [24:36] that's going to be felt. [24:38] The fallout will be on the world economy. [24:40] What should we be looking out for [24:42] in the next two weeks? [24:43] Because as we're talking, [24:45] this is just a two-week ceasefire. [24:47] I think we obviously have to watch [24:49] what Israel does. [24:51] Will Israel stop, [24:52] and will Hezbollah, on the other hand, [24:54] will they stop trading missiles [24:57] and combative situation in Lebanon? [25:02] We have to presume that Hezbollah, [25:04] it will probably be more [25:06] under the influence of Iran [25:08] in stopping and abiding [25:10] by the 10-point plan. [25:12] Will Netanyahu be in the same position [25:14] vis-a-vis Trump? [25:16] Will he accede to America's desire [25:19] to calm it and cool it [25:21] for the next two weeks? [25:22] That's what we should be looking out for. [25:23] And I think how quickly [25:25] ships begin to be allowed [25:27] to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [25:29] will also be a big indicator. [25:31] Because I think that Trump will, [25:33] if that doesn't happen, [25:34] you know, Trump will, [25:35] we may be hearing the threats [25:36] and the bluff again. [25:37] One of the things [25:38] that strikes me, Jane, [25:39] as we're talking, [25:40] is that there are things [25:42] that cannot be unsaid [25:44] and things that cannot be undone. [25:46] And there are two big ones [25:48] here on Wednesday morning. [25:51] Iran has learnt [25:53] that it has great power, [25:55] as you mentioned. [25:56] It can close the Strait of Hormuz [25:58] and use that as leverage, [25:59] which is incredibly powerful. [26:02] Donald Trump has potentially learnt [26:04] in the last 24 hours [26:06] that he can say certain things, [26:08] potentially genocidal things, [26:09] as has been suggested [26:10] by some of his critics. [26:12] And those can have great leverage [26:15] in a negotiation. [26:16] What do you make of those two facts? [26:21] Well, you can't unsay [26:22] the things you've said, [26:23] as you so rightfully say. [26:25] And I don't know where you would go [26:27] from a remark about ending [26:29] a civilisation tonight. [26:31] How much further could you go [26:33] down that line? [26:34] I think we've sort of reached [26:36] a point where it's also unknowable. [26:40] People tend to say this with Trump. [26:41] What could he do next? [26:42] He's kind of pushed the envelope [26:44] as far as he can, [26:45] and then he pushes it even further. [26:46] But I really think [26:47] this end of a civilisation remark [26:49] was quite extraordinary. [26:51] And also it begs the question, [26:53] where will we be in two weeks' time? [26:55] Will he reiterate that? [26:57] Will he say, well, [26:58] this is where we were [26:58] on the eve of potential escalation? [27:02] And, you know, Iran, [27:03] you haven't abided by the ten points [27:05] and we haven't been able [27:06] to reach agreement. [27:07] Do we then, [27:08] are we just delaying [27:09] a repetition of an end [27:12] of the end of civilisation remark? [27:15] Who knows? [27:16] I mean, it's all so open [27:18] and so unpredictable, [27:20] as has been so much [27:22] in the Trump presidency too, [27:24] which, let's face it, [27:25] isn't much more than a year old, [27:27] just over a year now. [27:29] Well, mercifully, [27:30] the temperature [27:30] has been turned down for now. [27:32] Thank you so much [27:32] for taking the time [27:34] to talk all this through with us, Jane. [27:35] We're so grateful [27:36] for your expertise. [27:37] Thank you, Tristan. [27:39] I wish I had a crystal ball. [27:41] I don't think anybody does, [27:43] perhaps not even Donald Trump. [27:44] Well, please come back [27:45] and see us again soon. [27:46] Thank you, Jane. [27:47] Thank you. [27:47] That was Jane Corbyn [27:49] from the BBC's Panorama programme. [27:52] And that's it for today's episode. [27:54] The Global Story [27:55] is also an audio podcast [27:56] or available every weekday [27:58] on bbc.com [27:59] or wherever you listen. [28:01] Thanks for tuning in. [28:02] We'll see you next time. [28:03] Cheerio.