Attacks on southern Lebanon: Israel forces intensify air strikes across Nabatieh

[0:00] Now, live in Tehran, Ramallah and Islamabad. [0:03] First to Osama bin Javed in the Pakistani capital, [0:05] near the venue of those talks. [0:08] Osama, of course, we've been saying this ever since they started. [0:11] So much at stake in Islamabad. [0:14] Talks we now know have officially begun. [0:16] Do we have any idea on the shape, the duration? [0:24] Well, it is a historic day. [0:25] As you mentioned, this is the first time that we're seeing [0:28] the highest level of contact between the United States and Iran [0:33] after the 1979 revolution. [0:36] We believe that the talks lasted for just under two hours. [0:40] It was, according to sources, done in an atmosphere which was positive. [0:46] There have been a number of issues that have been discussed [0:48] and some of them are the sticking points that we all know about. [0:53] But we believe that there has been some headway [0:55] in terms of what is happening in Lebanon. [0:58] Some sources suggest that it is now going to be limited [1:01] to operations in the south [1:03] and there will be no further strikes in Beirut again. [1:06] I mean, this is very early hours [1:08] and we're still waiting for confirmation. [1:10] We're also hearing that there is some movement, [1:12] according to Iranian sources, [1:14] that there is going to be a move towards assets being unfrozen. [1:18] But again, what we know is that [1:21] it is all happening behind closed doors. [1:23] Drip, drip information is coming out, [1:26] but it is very difficult to verify [1:28] and we'll have to wait and see what happens next. [1:30] The two parties are going to meet again over dinner. [1:33] And to discuss all of this with us is Abbas Aslani [1:36] from the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran. [1:39] Thank you very much for taking the time. [1:41] You've been talking to people who were inside. [1:43] What is your sense? [1:45] Are we heading towards a positive direction? [1:49] Because just them meeting at this highest level [1:52] is a positive sign, isn't it? [1:54] Well, we are on day one of these negotiations, [1:57] yet that is significant. [1:59] The progress which is being made is, you know, [2:02] gradual, small, and initial. [2:05] And there have been some discussions generally [2:08] about the framework of any final deal or potential deal. [2:12] But mostly part of those discussions have been focusing on steps, [2:20] which could not be the core demands, [2:22] but, you know, trust-building measures, [2:24] like Iran expecting the United States unfreezing its, you know, [2:30] frozen assets. [2:31] This is considered from Tehran's perspective [2:33] to be a trust-building measures. [2:35] And, but in terms of, you know, Lebanon, [2:39] there have been very little small progress on that issue, [2:44] but I think Iran will yet insist on, you know, [2:48] resolving the issue completely. [2:50] However, you know, [2:52] I think much time is needed to discuss the other aspects [2:58] of the, any potential deal. [3:01] And this is, I think now is a bit early to judge the whole process. [3:06] We have to wait to see that how this round will end [3:10] and whether a, another round is expected [3:12] and the timeline, the timing and the quality [3:16] and the level also will matter. [3:19] I think we'll have to wait and see about the substance. [3:21] We've been speaking to diplomatic sources in Pakistan [3:24] who say that they're ready to provide the requirements [3:28] that are needed for if these talks progress [3:30] to multiple days or a second round. [3:33] Just on the issue of this highest level of negotiations, [3:36] we've heard previously there's been contact [3:38] between foreign ministers, [3:40] but this is the first time that the vice president [3:42] of the United States is meeting the parliament speaker. [3:46] Do you believe that the Iranians' insistence [3:49] on having J.D. Vance is helpful [3:52] to steer it in the right direction [3:53] because there's still so much mistrust [3:56] between the two sides [3:57] and they remain really pulled apart? [3:59] I think the level is very important [4:02] because this has been the first time at this level [4:04] Iranian and American officials are meeting [4:07] since the 1979 revolution in Iran. [4:11] Previously, during the Iran-2015 nuclear deal, [4:15] the discussions were at the ministerial level, [4:18] but this time that's different and higher. [4:21] But in addition to that, [4:22] this stems from Iran's distrust [4:25] toward the previous negotiators [4:27] or top negotiators from the American team. [4:31] And during, you know, two rounds of negotiations back then, [4:37] Iran was attacked militarily, [4:39] but also the approach by J.D. Vance, [4:42] he's been known mostly to be against the war, [4:45] also provides a chance for, let's say, [4:49] for a potential deal between the two sides [4:52] because there were some speculations [4:55] that Trump is not filled with correct information [4:58] on what's going on. [4:59] And this is maybe another chance to see [5:02] if the process was something wrong with the process [5:06] or that was a bigger decision [5:08] in the U.S. administration to engage militarily with Iran. [5:11] There are new people in charge now with the IRGC [5:14] on the diplomatic side, [5:16] on the Iranian governance side. [5:18] Does this mean that there is credence [5:20] to what the U.S. president has been saying, [5:23] that this is a new regime, [5:24] this is a regime which is open to new ideas, [5:26] which is going to be more amenable [5:27] to what the United States wants [5:29] because the conventional wisdom was [5:31] that new people in charge need to prove themselves [5:34] on the battlefront [5:35] before they can actually come to the table. [5:38] You know, regime change has a definition [5:40] which includes, you know, changing constitution, [5:44] the whole system or the approach, behavior. [5:47] But we have been seeing is, you know, [5:49] assassinations despite in high levels. [5:52] You know, the person sitting at the top [5:54] of the hierarchy was killed. [5:56] But we have been seeing a kind of, [5:58] let's say, continuity in the policies. [6:01] However, we are seeing new officials, [6:04] you know, assuming and replacing the previous ones. [6:09] This might have some impact on the Iranian policies [6:13] when it comes even to foreign policy, [6:15] however, even relative. [6:18] But we are seeing the negotiating team [6:19] mostly from the foreign ministry [6:22] or those who are in the Supreme National Security Council [6:24] are yet in the same team. [6:28] But this is something I think we can judge [6:32] maybe in the longer term. [6:34] What we so far, we have been witnessing [6:37] and what Tehran is arguing [6:39] is that there has been no change in Iran. [6:42] And that is the U.S.'s changed, you know, position [6:45] as a result of the, you know, consequences [6:48] of the recent war against the country [6:50] like the pressure in terms of the global energy market, [6:54] specifically when it comes to the trade-off hormones, [6:58] as well as the failure in achieving [7:01] the strategic outcomes of the recent war. [7:03] Bas Aslani, thank you very much for that. [7:06] So we're hearing positive tones, [7:09] a historic day, the sides meeting for the first time [7:12] with the interlocutors in the middle. [7:15] But all of this has to be bridged [7:17] on this sea of distrust, [7:19] where both sides, we believe, [7:21] are going to now break into smaller, [7:23] specialised committees. [7:25] And these talks are going to continue. [7:27] We'll have to wait and see on the specific details [7:30] when the mediators and the parties [7:32] come out of the room. [7:33] Thank you, Osama. [7:34] Osama bin Javadin in Islamabad there. [7:36] Also in Islamabad is our White House correspondent, [7:39] Kimberley Halka. [7:39] Good to see you, Kimberley. [7:40] So is the America First delegation there [7:45] for a patient diplomatic breakthrough, do you think? [7:48] How has the groundwork been laid by them [7:52] immediately before these talks and as they begin? [7:59] Well, there's no question that the Vice President, [8:02] J.D. Vance, was careful to lay a groundwork [8:06] that was at least somewhat conciliatory. [8:08] He said right before he arrived here in Islamabad [8:11] that he was willing to negotiate with an open hand [8:16] if Iran negotiates with good faith. [8:19] But the U.S. President is always looming large. [8:23] And even though there was the desire perhaps [8:26] to have the Donald Trump in Washington [8:30] and have that geographic separation, [8:32] social media also makes it possible [8:35] for the U.S. President to be in the palm of everyone's hand, [8:38] including in that room. [8:40] And that is where the U.S. President [8:42] has perhaps injected a bit of tension [8:45] into what otherwise started out [8:47] as a relatively relaxed atmosphere [8:51] given some of the body language [8:52] when the arrivals first occurred at these talks. [8:56] The U.S. President posting on social media, [8:58] railing at the U.S. media [9:00] for saying that Iran is winning and winning big. [9:03] In fact, he says that they're losing and losing big. [9:07] So the U.S. President really hampering the tone [9:11] with his typically bombastic language, [9:14] which is certainly making it more difficult for J.D. Vance, [9:18] who is tasked with trying to end a war [9:21] that he never really wanted to start in the first place. [9:26] Yeah, well, following on from that, Kimberly, [9:27] I mean, how is the delegation managing [9:29] the intense Iranian distrust? [9:31] Is there any attempt to backtrack on Trump's threats [9:35] to erase an entire Iranian civilization? [9:38] That only a few days ago on Tuesday. [9:42] Yeah, that's right. [9:43] And what we know is that just by putting J.D. Vance [9:47] at the helm has been a conscious decision [9:50] on the part of the United States delegation. [9:53] And there are a number of reasons why. [9:54] First of all, you have the fact that the Middle East envoy, [9:58] Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner, [10:01] they're not even seasoned diplomats. [10:03] And these are some of the most important talks [10:05] as we've been highlighting in decades, [10:07] since the 1979 revolution. [10:09] So the fact that this is so delicate [10:12] and is with unseasoned diplomats [10:15] is part of the problem. [10:17] And so as a result, that is why J.D. Vance, [10:19] who's seen as being very adept at foreign policy, [10:22] is leading this. [10:23] But also there's the concern [10:25] that Iran can't trust the United States. [10:30] Is this a pause to simply rearm, [10:32] as the U.S. president has suggested [10:34] in some of his public statements [10:36] that if these talks fail, [10:37] that he's ready to launch his armada of ships [10:40] at a moment's notice. [10:42] But also is the concern [10:44] that essentially these two people [10:47] were there when there was a deal [10:50] that was struck to prevent all of this conflict. [10:53] Oman said that it's within a grasp, [10:57] and yet then the strike started. [11:00] So as a result, there is an intense feeling [11:02] that the Middle East envoys can't be trusted, [11:07] and that's why J.D. Vance is on the part [11:09] of the United States leading this delegation, [11:12] which we should point out other U.S. officials [11:13] have said that they hope [11:15] that there is the prospect for breakthrough, [11:18] and if not, they have, quote, backup plans. [11:21] All right. [11:22] Kimberly, thanks for that. [11:22] Kimberly Halka, in Islamabad. [11:25] Let's go to Tehran. [11:26] Speaks here, Ali Hashim. [11:27] So, Ali, what is riding on these talks [11:30] for ordinary Iranians? [11:32] Talk us through perceptions there. [11:38] Well, the ordinary Iranian [11:39] wants this whole episode to come to an end. [11:43] Now, how would this episode come to an end? [11:47] It's really a very long story [11:50] because it doesn't start with this war. [11:52] This war is just a result [11:53] to an accumulation of elements and reasons [11:57] for the past 47 years. [12:00] The main issue for the Iranians [12:01] with respect to the United States [12:03] is to have the sanctions lifted. [12:06] Sanctions have been curbing this country's [12:10] economic hopes and aspirations, [12:14] and also have been suffocating people. [12:17] People's, the reflection of these sanctions [12:21] on people's lives is clear. [12:24] And this is the main issue [12:26] that people would love to see [12:29] something being solved about. [12:31] Now, with respect to war, [12:32] no one wants a war, [12:34] but it's a ceasefire. [12:36] The problem is that [12:36] this, these talks [12:38] for the normal Iranian [12:41] is also built upon a pillar of mistrust. [12:45] In the past, there have been a lot of issues [12:49] with the last two rounds of negotiations. [12:52] They were followed by wars. [12:53] And at the end, [12:55] even when the 2015 deal was struck, [12:59] the Iranians weren't able [13:00] to take the benefit they wanted from. [13:07] Still, despite the fact [13:08] there were a kind of a relative lifting of sanctions, [13:13] but they could not transfer money, [13:15] they could not receive money. [13:16] And investments didn't really pour into the country [13:20] the way they were feeling or imagining. [13:24] And that's what caused a J [13:27] reaction towards the deal. [13:32] And, of course, we saw after that [13:34] the protests in different waves [13:36] till the latest protest a few months ago. [13:40] So, the issue for the Iranians, [13:42] how to solve this issue completely [13:44] because it has a lot of strings hanked to it. [13:48] And they know the war is the last episode [13:51] of a very long series of misfortunes. [13:55] Ali, in the immediate, [13:57] I mean, does the delegation in Islamabad, [14:00] we understand it includes [14:02] around 70 officials in total, [14:04] does it have the authority [14:05] to make concessions and demands in these talks? [14:09] Are they the ones driving things forward? [14:12] Do they have authority? [14:17] Well, the fact that, yes, [14:19] we are seeing people with authority [14:21] that represent the multi-layer institutions [14:25] within the system. [14:27] Now, on the Iranian side, there are 70. [14:30] On the American side, [14:31] I think the number is even bigger than that. [14:34] However, this is not the issue. [14:36] It's not about numbers. [14:37] It's about what are they going to agree on [14:39] and whether there is time for agreement. [14:42] Because what we're hearing is that [14:44] these talks are going to last for one day [14:48] and then no one knows what's going to happen. [14:52] The delegations will get back to their countries. [14:54] In the past, I remember covering the 2015 deal in Vienna [14:58] and the both delegations were based in Vienna [15:03] for around 18 days from the 27th of June [15:06] till the 14th of July 2015 [15:08] in order to reach a deal on the nuclear issue. [15:13] What about the situation now [15:14] when it's not only about the nuclear issue, [15:17] it's about all the issues [15:19] that are between the United States and Iran [15:22] since 47 years, [15:24] the ballistics, the access, [15:26] the regional influence, [15:29] the internal issues, [15:30] the nuclear issue. [15:32] And now, you know, [15:33] we have this new issue that came, [15:37] which is the Strait of Hormuz [15:38] that seems to be overwhelming [15:40] all the other issues. [15:41] So how are they going to solve all these problems in one day? [15:48] This is actually the biggest question facing everyone [15:52] and adding more scepticism to these talks. [15:57] Ali, thank you. [15:58] Ali Hashem in Tehran. [16:01] Israeli forces have escalated their airstrikes [16:04] on southern Lebanon, [16:05] killing at least 10 people. [16:10] Multiple towns and residential areas [16:12] across the Nabatea district have been targeted. [16:14] Health officials say the strikes [16:15] has caused extensive destruction [16:17] to homes, infrastructure and civilian facilities. [16:21] The attacks in the south come [16:22] as Israeli and Lebanese envoys [16:24] are expected to meet in Washington on Tuesday. [16:26] Hezbollah has not been included in the negotiations. [16:30] Let's speak to Nora today. [16:31] She is near Ramallah [16:32] and is following the Israeli government's reaction. [16:35] We know, Nora, [16:36] that an end to hostilities against Lebanon [16:39] was one of Iran's key demands [16:42] going into talks there. [16:43] In terms of the wider context, [16:45] Israel is refusing, we know, [16:47] to negotiate with Hezbollah. [16:49] But do these negotiations [16:50] with the Lebanese government on Tuesday [16:52] in any way look promising? [16:58] Well, not as much as many would hope [17:02] for several reasons. [17:04] Any negotiations with Lebanon [17:06] would have to take Hezbollah into account [17:08] regardless of the red lines [17:10] that Netanyahu has boxed himself into. [17:12] Now, Netanyahu and the Israeli government [17:15] are going to Washington [17:16] almost kicking and screaming [17:18] because this is not what they had wanted. [17:21] But according to Israeli reporting, [17:24] they were instructed by the Trump administration [17:29] to dial down the attacks, [17:31] to stop attacking Beirut [17:33] and to engage with the Lebanese government, [17:36] which had broken a Lebanese taboo [17:39] to offer direct negotiations with Israel, [17:42] not so much just to talk about Hezbollah [17:44] or a ceasefire, [17:46] but to end once and for all [17:47] all these outstanding issues with Israel, [17:50] namely Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory, [17:53] the fact that it doesn't want [17:54] to demarcate borders with Lebanon, [17:57] and the fact that the current government [17:59] is talking about annexing up to 10% of Lebanon. [18:03] So both parties are going there [18:05] with a lot of baggage [18:07] because they weren't given much choice, [18:09] because the Lebanese government [18:10] doesn't want another government [18:12] speaking on its behalf. [18:14] But right now, [18:16] the composition of the delegations, [18:18] what will be the substances, [18:19] all vague, [18:20] and most important, [18:22] Israel continues to bomb Lebanon, [18:24] and that is something [18:26] that will make talks unsustainable [18:28] from a Lebanese perspective. [18:30] Israel knows this very well, [18:32] and that's why there's some chatter in Israel [18:34] about possibly an impending Israeli announcement [18:38] because of American pressure [18:39] of a suspension of airstrikes come Tuesday [18:43] to allow for that meeting, [18:45] that initial meeting [18:46] at the State Department to take place. [18:48] Anur, domestically, [18:50] how is this all playing out [18:51] for Prime Minister Netanyahu? [18:57] It's been nothing short of a nightmare, [19:00] Niv, for the Israeli Prime Minister. [19:02] His numbers are plummeting, [19:05] which is contrary [19:06] to the conventional political wisdom in Israel [19:08] when Prime Ministers usually used to go to war, [19:12] then claim victory, [19:13] crush the adversary, [19:14] and usually that's a smaller, [19:16] non-state actor, [19:18] a militant group of sorts, [19:20] Hamas, Hezbollah, and so on. [19:22] Those numbers go up. [19:24] What Netanyahu has seen, [19:25] especially after the war [19:27] that he picked with Iran, [19:28] is that his numbers are down [19:30] and that his main challenger now [19:32] is not in the conventional opposition [19:35] in the so-called center or left, [19:37] but it's in the Israeli right. [19:39] The former Prime Minister, [19:41] Naftali Bennett, [19:42] is poised to win more seats [19:44] if elections were held today, [19:47] and that puts Netanyahu [19:49] between a rock and a hard place [19:51] because he has been trapped [19:53] by his own declarations of victory [19:56] which contradict reality [19:57] and the assessment of generals [20:00] and former officials [20:01] that Israelis trust a lot more [20:04] than their prime minister, [20:06] according to the polls. [20:07] So he has to, on the one hand, [20:09] keep his coalition together, [20:11] keep the right-wing base [20:12] that he counts on for support, [20:14] engaged and convinced [20:16] that he can deliver something, [20:18] and at the same time [20:20] not upset Donald Trump [20:22] in the United States [20:23] because also without Trump's support, [20:26] Netanyahu would be [20:27] in an even more difficult position [20:29] when it comes to the regional situation [20:31] and all the war fronts [20:32] that Israel has raging [20:34] across the border. [20:37] Understood. [20:38] No order near Amali there. [20:39] Thank you.