Analyst: US pressure on Iran through Hormuz blockade unlikely to succeed

[0:00] Chris Doyle is a commentator on Middle East affairs and the director of the Council for [0:05] Arab-British Understanding. He joins us live from London. Good to have you with us. So let's just [0:13] remind ourselves of the timeline. These talks collapsed on Sunday with a very negative tone [0:20] from the US officials, from the vice president. Very positive tone now, just a few days later. [0:27] How do we explain this turnaround? Has there been some substantial change in positions of either [0:34] side? To say that there's been a ton of progress and to put that, to juxtapose that with what [0:44] vice president Vance said on leaving Islamabad, I mean, it's like two different worlds. There hasn't [0:51] on the outside that we know of been any great progress, but I think it does reveal that the [0:59] Trump administration really does want to get to a deal. It does not want to see a re-emergence of [1:07] a conflict in which it would not have that exit that it so craves. It wants to get this done. [1:16] I think the tension will be between the desire to get the grand deal that J.D. Vance referred to, [1:24] as opposed to, to build on the ceasefire so they can get the Strait of Hormuz open. Do they want to [1:30] wait for the grand deal? Keep that straight closed with all the impact it's having on the global economy, [1:38] on US's allies, as well, of course, as Iran itself. And Iran, the Iranian leadership also has been [1:47] talking consistently about getting a proper deal, one that ensures that it's not going to be bombed [1:53] in a few months' time. It wants to see an end to all of that, as indeed do the Gulf states. So on, [1:59] at that level, there's agreement. It's everything else that will require considerable dynamic, [2:07] creative, disciplined diplomacy, something that has been thus far rather absent. [2:13] Chris, from what we've understood has been reported, one of the major stumbling blocks [2:20] was the issue of uranium enrichment. Do we have any reason to believe? We've seen the Iranians have [2:26] been pretty consistent on demanding that that is their right, that they will not give up. Do we [2:31] have any reason to believe that the Americans are going to be more flexible on that? [2:36] Well, interesting that the rumor has it that the Americans are seeking Iran to have a moratorium [2:43] on enriching uranium for 20 years. So that is at least accepting that Iran has a right to enrich. [2:52] It's not saying you will never be allowed to enrich uranium. So that means it now is a question of [3:00] trying to negotiate between the five years that Iran insists upon and the 20 years that is the [3:06] Trump administration position. Well, can we broker a compromise on that? I think that's conceivable. [3:12] So Chris, I'm sorry to jump in. Why didn't this happen? You know, again, I come back to the idea [3:17] that everything collapsed in flames on a Sunday. Monday, Tuesday, three days later, suddenly [3:24] compromise is possible on this issue. I mean, it leaves you again scratching your head saying, [3:30] why? We've all been scratching our heads pretty much every day of this war. I think that it was [3:39] unlikely, though, that the two sides who aren't used to engaging with each other, certainly not at that [3:46] level, vice president, speaker of the Iranian parliament, were not going to agree at the first [3:53] time of asking. That would have looked too easy. They need to, both sides need to appear as if they're [4:00] being tough. So it may be a question, a question, really, of the psychology of this all, that they [4:06] will need to go through several rounds in order to appear as if this has been thrashed out. But both [4:12] sides have made the necessary concessions. Of course, the longer that the ceasefire continues, [4:20] the pressure still builds because of all the economic issues that prevail, both for Iran, [4:28] US and its allies. So the two sides, the clock is ticking for them. They've got to deliver sooner [4:36] rather than later. One thing that is perhaps different going in is now we have this US blockade [4:45] being imposed around the Straits of Hormuz. Does that, do we know how much of an effective difference [4:53] that makes how, to what extent even that this blockade is really working, given that CENCOM [5:01] haven't defined the maritime boundary for where is the line that the blockade begins and ends, [5:08] right? So how do we even know, just because ships, there are heavy reports of ships going in and out of [5:13] the Strait of Hormuz, how do we know if it's crossing the so-called line of the blockade? [5:19] It's a very good question. There are reports that some ships, certain reports said six had [5:27] turned around and didn't go through. But there are also other reports saying that other ships have [5:32] made it through that strait. So how effective is this American blockade? I think this is all about [5:39] trying to put pressure on Iran. It's all about also President Trump looking tough as if he's not [5:48] caving in. So is this for posturing or is it for real? In theory, the position of the American [5:56] administration is this is to put economic pressure on Iran to demonstrate that they too will be paying [6:02] an economic price, but also to its Asian customers, those who rely so heavily on Iranian energy like [6:11] China, but also other countries. But that is also risking the United States antagonizing some of its [6:18] allies in Southeast Asia. The best thing that can happen is that they get back to that negotiating [6:25] table with revised ideas, creative thinking, because I don't think that history shows that [6:33] pressuring the Iranian regime typically bears a lot of fruit. Okay, we'll leave it there for now. [6:39] Thanks so much for your analysis. That's Chris Doyle, commentator on Middle East affairs and director [6:45] of the Council for Arab British understanding. Joining us from London.