All eyes on Pakistan ahead of US and Iran peace talks — BBC News

[0:04] hello i'm lucy hawkins live in the qatari capital doha it is day 42 of the u.s israel war with iran [0:11] and over the next 25 minutes we're going to bring you up to date with the latest from the region [0:16] and diplomatic efforts to negotiate peace so let's start with some of today's main developments [0:23] six weeks into the war all eyes are on pakistan where iran and the u.s are preparing for crucial [0:28] peace talks iran's parliamentary speaker warns there'll be no negotiations with the u.s until [0:34] there's a ceasefire in lebanon and iranian assets are unfrozen president trump accuses iran of [0:42] extortion over the strait of hormuz saying he won't accept a toll on ships passing through [0:47] the vital waterway this all comes as u.s inflation rises to its highest level in two years with the [0:54] price of oil impacting the wider global economy we'll be live with our correspondents across the [1:04] region and around the world as we analyze the global impact of the u.s israeli war with iran [1:10] but first with the prospect of peace hanging in the balance the world is turning its attention to [1:14] islamabad where teams from iran and the u.s will try to negotiate an end to the war but there are [1:21] many obstacles that stand in the way from a total absence of trust a lack of common ground and the [1:28] fact that israel america's full partner in the war has massively ramped up its military campaign in [1:34] lebanon as we speak u.s vice president jd vance is on his way to pakistan as part of the u.s delegation [1:41] alongside special envoy steve whitkoff and jared kushner let's take you to our correspondent ayony [1:46] wells who is in washington for us i mean what do we know about the approach of the u.s delegation [1:53] going into these talks well i think all the rhetoric suggests it's going to be an incredibly hard line [1:59] approach uh donald trump has done what he has done previously in this conflict today which is ramp up [2:05] the threats and rhetoric towards iran essentially putting pressure on them to make concessions do [2:11] what the u.s would like he has said that the only reason that iranians are alive is to negotiate [2:18] he has also said that u.s warships in the region are being loaded up with some of the world's most [2:23] powerful weapons and that they will essentially use them uh to greater force than previously in [2:29] this conflict if a deal isn't reached he said that we will know within the next 24 hours i think that [2:34] makes it pretty clear what the u.s's approach is going to be which is uh to quote what pete hegseth [2:40] the defense secretary has said previously in this conflict to negotiate with bombs essentially say [2:45] if you don't do as we say we are going to ramp up our military campaign against you uh this all comes [2:51] of course as there is growing frustration from the u.s's perspective about uh two key disagreements [2:56] really in this in these talks uh one is over whether or not this ceasefire applies to lebanon [3:03] the u.s and israel say it doesn't uh iran saying it does and israel as you mentioned has been ramping [3:10] up its its military bombardment of lebanon killing hundreds of people in the country in the last 24 hours [3:16] there is also this ongoing disagreement about the strait of hormuz with donald trump [3:20] getting increasingly frustrated about the fact that uh iran still isn't letting uh all ships go [3:27] through uh there's only a limited amount of traffic as far as we're aware that is passing through the [3:31] strait of hormuz at the moment uh and still tolls being applied we understand as well to some of those [3:37] vessels uh donald trump says that it was the agreement that it would be fully open so these two [3:43] huge sticking points remain and i think uh if those aren't sort of uh thrashed out in the next 24 hours [3:50] there is still a big question mark about whether these talks will even happen given that iran has [3:54] also said it doesn't want to have them while there is still conflict going on in lebanon and uh they [3:59] want also blocked assets of theirs to be released i only thanks so much for that straight to islamabad [4:07] now we can join our pakistan correspondent caroline davies who is there for us where the negotiations [4:12] are due to begin to get uh to get underway on saturday carrie they've been getting ready there i know [4:18] you've been down to the security cordon in the red zone but with these calls now from iran's speaker [4:25] of the parliament for a ceasefire and a release of frozen assets before the talks even take place [4:31] just how much does this really show that there's this huge gulf between the two sides i mean we're [4:39] not even at the point where the talks are starting and we can already see that the huge hurdle of trying [4:43] to get both sides here to the negotiating table to even agree on what they say that they already [4:48] previously agreed in terms of a ceasefire i think that shows that not only how far apart they are [4:53] but also shows that if they do get here how much uh difficulty they may well be or how much of a [4:58] challenge it might be to try and find some common ground and try to find something that feels meaningful [5:04] and can last as you say i'm i've been down to the red zone which is the area in islamabad where [5:11] the main majority of government buildings are as well as foreign embassies and that whole area has [5:16] effectively been closed off with barbed wire police uh army as well as the paramilitary rangers force [5:23] as well here in uh in islamabad and that security cordon has seemed to grow throughout the course of [5:28] the day we were at one point quite close to the red zone uh in an area called ditchuk and we were then [5:34] pushed further and further back down the road um as we were told that delegations would be arriving soon [5:40] we don't know which delegations and we don't know how soon we do of course know that jd vance is in the [5:45] air but those questions do still remain about the iranian delegation we did hear uh yesterday from [5:51] the iranian ambassador here uh who had put out a post on social media saying that the iranian delegation [5:57] was going to be traveling last night um and so there was an enormous amount of speculation about this [6:03] that post was then deleted it after after less than an hour and of course we've had no uh official [6:09] confirmation or no announcement uh about any iranian delegation here yet uh in pakistan so still an [6:16] enormous amount of anticipation here if you speak to a lot of the pakistani authorities behind the [6:21] scenes there still seems to be a real positivity that these talks will happen uh everything is still [6:27] continuing to sort of move forward uh in terms of their planning and their security measures but [6:32] the next question is what is going to happen with iran will we hear something further from the iranian [6:37] delegation carrie thanks so much for that well let's delve into what we are hearing from inside [6:45] iran jr goal is our correspondent from bbc persian he joins us now from the london newsroom to [6:51] remind you bbc persian the persian language service of bbc news it's used by 24 million people around the [6:57] world the majority in iran despite being blocked and routinely jammed by the iranian authorities jr we've been [7:04] talking with ioni and with carrie as well about these demands that we've had from iran's parliamentary [7:11] speaker can you explain who he is how influential he is and whether we think he will actually be at [7:16] these talks in islamabad well lucy muhammad bakar kalibav is well known in iran he was he is a one of the [7:25] hardline conservative conservative politician he he is a member of former member of uh revolutionary guard [7:33] he commanded in fact iranian revolutionary guard aerospace he was one of the pioneer of missile [7:40] program in iran and also he was the mayor of capital city of tehran and now speaker of the parliament [7:47] i think today the the deputy head of iran's parliament's national security and foreign policy [7:54] he said he's he has been appointing appointed to lead the negotiation team by supreme leader of iran [8:03] mushtaba khamenei who hasn't been seen since the attack on his father's his the previous leader's [8:10] house so i think he is the one who is trying to going there we haven't heard the the team has left [8:17] iran or arrived in pakistan but i think even the tweet he tweeted just hours ago it seems he's trying [8:25] to project power and say in the same time sending a message to its iran's proxies and allies in the region [8:32] that iran will not abandon them that's why he said under two conditions they will begin negotiation [8:39] they didn't say they don't go to pakistan they said under those conditions they will begin the [8:45] negotiation it seems one as kerry said it is about bringing lebanon into the negotiation and second is [8:53] releasing iranian acid which has been frozen by united states jr thank you so much let's delve into [9:02] that sticking point that all of our correspondence are raising and that is the conflict in lebanon [9:08] where israel says it's fighting the iran-backed hezbollah group which has been launching rockets into [9:13] northern israel israel says it's killed more than 40 hezbollah fighters and destroyed numerous military [9:18] sites since the massive bombardment on wednesday that killed more than 300 people in lebanon a third of [9:26] them women children and the elderly the israeli attacks and evacuation orders have displaced more [9:32] than a million people in lebanon and there are growing concerns about the humanitarian crisis as [9:37] well we've been speaking to some people in beirut there is no substitute for family everything else can [9:44] be replaced for example the house and other things can be replaced but parents children or a wife are the [9:50] most important thing the real problem is the body and the soul may god compensate us for our loss our [9:57] country has done nothing and it has no involvement in this war the loss of people can never be replaced [10:05] you know but as for the stones and buildings god can compensate for that there is no problem there is [10:10] a pharmacy here that has been reduced to rubble and thank god what can we say we have no power over [10:15] this this is how the situation is let's take you to our middle east correspondent hugo bachega who's been [10:20] out and about in beirut today talking to people as well hugo just bring us up to date on the latest [10:26] situation in the lebanese capital yeah lucy so we spent hours today with emergency a team still uh digging [10:36] uh you know searching through the rubble of a collapsed building in central beirut uh searching for two [10:41] people who were still missing and there was very little hope that anyone could be found alive it was [10:48] a day of intense israeli airstrikes today particularly in the south of the country and the lebanese [10:53] authorities are saying that 13 state security personnel were killed in an israeli airstrike in [11:00] in the city of nabatiya this is one of the cities that have been hardest hit by israel in this war and [11:06] uh this is one of the deadliest incidents involving state personnel in this conflict and remember that [11:13] the state here the lebanese government is not party to this conflict this is a war between israel and [11:20] hezbollah and there have been more attacks by hezbollah against israel it's been a particularly violent day [11:26] in terms of hezbollah attacks as well so no ceasefire here no indications of any kind of de-escalation in [11:33] this conflict but obviously as we've been discussing there is the possibility uh of talks between [11:39] israeli and lebanese officials after the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu yesterday that [11:45] announced that he had authorized uh israeli talks with lebanese officials but here in lebanon the [11:53] authorities are saying that no talks are going to happen if there is no ceasefire in this conflict so [11:59] uh a complicated situation uh here and obviously the suffering of the families continues so today [12:05] the authorities urge the relatives of families were still searching for the loved ones uh for people [12:11] who haven't identified some of the dead bodies in hospitals across the country to give dna samples to [12:18] help in this identification process and you can probably hear the loud the very loud sound of israeli [12:25] drones flying over beirut tonight so the conflict continues and for the people of lebanon there's [12:30] no respite hugo thank you so much live to jerusalem now we can speak to the bbc's joel gunter who is [12:39] there joel what's the reaction been from the israeli government about government about all the pressure [12:44] around a ceasefire and their military campaign in lebanon are they sensing that their actions could [12:52] overshadow or even perhaps bring an end to these negotiations in pakistan well israeli officials [13:01] here including the prime minister benjamin netanyahu have made it abundantly clear over the past couple [13:06] of days that they do not see a ceasefire with hezbollah as part of this offer for direct talks [13:14] and as if to underscore that uh israeli strikes are continuing across the south of lebanon as you've heard [13:20] following that tragic day of strikes a couple of days ago it is hard to see israel agreeing at this [13:29] point to forego those strikes to remove its forces from the south of lebanon so there is clearly an [13:35] impasse what prime minister netanyahu essentially is saying is i'm open to direct talks but israel is [13:44] going to continue bombing in the meantime as it sees fit and the lebanese officials understandably don't [13:51] see that as a good foundation for talks and as you've just heard they are saying that without a [13:57] ceasefire they won't go forward there is of course the thorny issue of the fact that uh it is hezbollah [14:04] that israel is fighting with and officials from hezbollah have said that they flatly reject the idea [14:10] of the talks until there is a ceasefire so we have an impasse there that of course does threaten to [14:16] overshadow these talks between the us and iran it has already given the impression that it is uh [14:23] possibly going to derail those talks if an agreement can't be reached there is of course the possibility [14:30] that president trump will put pressure on israel we have the sense that he's already done that [14:35] resulting in this offer yesterday from netanyahu to open these talks and if the situation in lebanon [14:42] continues to overshadow the talks in islamabad and president trump does want a quick exit from this war [14:49] and he does want those talks to succeed we may see an increase we may see yet more pressure from the [14:56] americans on israel for some sort of resolution of the situation in lebanon joel thank you so much [15:05] well let's turn now to the economic fallout of the war president trump accusing iran of extortion by [15:11] effectively closing off the strait of hormuz the slowdown of ships passing through that narrow [15:16] waterway between iran and oman has hit global supplies not just of oil and gas but also jet fuel [15:23] and fertilizer vital raw materials as well for manufacturing the us has made reopening the waterway [15:29] a key condition of the pakistan brokered ceasefire but reports from inside iran suggest its plans to [15:36] actually tighten its grip on the strait deciding who gets to pass through and also charging for the [15:43] privilege only a handful of vessels have passed through the strait since the two-week ceasefire was [15:48] announced as you can see here one reason is the risk of ships being attacked or even hitting a mine [15:54] a global shipping firm has told the bbc it's not prepared to take the risk one of the key question is [16:00] how secure is the passing if it's not 100 secure we wouldn't even ask our captains to switch on [16:07] their engines if there is any danger no insurance company will insure your ship and we wouldn't go [16:14] through the strait without an insurance right and insurance costs have quadrupled or i mean even more [16:21] we pay for an insurance now as much in a week as we pay normally for a year inflation in the us has risen [16:30] to its highest rate in nearly two years as costs of oil and other products has gone up and in europe [16:37] there are warnings that there will be jet fuel shortages in just three weeks if the strait of [16:42] humus does not reopen that's according to the trade body for the continent's airports for more on how [16:47] the war is continuing to shock the global economy here's mark ashton the economic impact of this [16:52] conflict continues to be felt around the world continents like asia and africa so far have been [16:59] hardest hit various countries have imposed all kinds of measures to try and conserve energy and keep a lid [17:05] on fuel prices we've seen rationing of petrol and diesel we've seen fuel price caps in some places [17:13] myanmar for example introduced alternate driving days and many countries are encouraging people to [17:18] either work from home or take an extra day holiday every week now right now the key pinch point remains [17:26] that strait of humus that tiny waterway between oman and iran where 20 percent of the world's oil and gas [17:33] passes through we spoke to one shipping organization today they represent 60 percent of vessels with the [17:40] world's oil tanker fleet they tell us the threat level remains critical so they are advising members [17:45] not to sell through there unless it's absolutely necessary they still believe they could come under [17:50] attack so they are hoping for that lasting ceasefire in which case operations can get back to normal [17:57] this turmoil of course continuing to affect the price of oil it's become an obsession over the past [18:04] month or so brent crude that benchmark futures oil in effect is trading at around 95 dollars a barrel [18:10] right now remember it was about 60 dollars a barrel before this conflict began but of more significance [18:16] and not very widely reported is the spot price for oil if you want oil overnight immediate deliveries [18:22] that price is trading at about 147 dollars a barrel we've not seen a spike like that since the 2008 [18:28] financial crash and it underlines the impact it's having that means refineries in asia and europe are [18:34] having to pay that to get over right now and the worry is that's going to feed through to inflation [18:39] the costs we all pay for food and household goods we've had the u.s inflation figures out just today in [18:45] the past few hours that's jumped from 2.4 percent year on year in february to 3.3 percent in march so [18:52] you're seeing the impact there of this conflict and that could mean higher prices of household fuel [18:58] fuel at the pumps food and everyday household goods too so the longer this conflict rumbles on [19:03] without a lasting part a peace deal the higher the cost on households across the world so let's turn [19:12] back now to the bigger picture around the peace talks in pakistan because with rising petrol prices in [19:17] the u.s the looming midterm elections in november of course president trump will be looking for a way to [19:23] end the war in iran the regime has its own reasons to end the war iran suffering massive damage with a [19:30] painful human impact many cities have come to an economic standstill but the declared positions of [19:36] the two sides are as far apart as it is possible to be so let's speak live now to our diplomatic [19:42] correspondent caroline hawley who joins us caroline just take us through the main obstacles to a [19:48] diplomatic path out of this wall well i think the first big hurdle is actually getting two delegations [19:56] into the pakistani capital islamabad to talk in some form directly or indirectly so the american vice [20:03] president jd vance is in the air at the moment we don't know what's happened with the iranian delegation [20:09] it is uh expected that it will be led by the parliamentary speaker muhammad bakar kalimaf but [20:15] we've not heard that for sure we don't know where he is at the moment we don't know how the iranian [20:22] delegation is going to arrive in islamabad there have been some reports some suggestions that the [20:29] pakistanis may go and and fetch them because they don't have planes to to get to the pakistani capital [20:37] and then the parliamentary speaker has said that there are preconditions for the talks he said they [20:42] can't sit down and negotiate before there is a ceasefire in lebanon and also he said that assets [20:51] iranian assets that have been blocked should be unfrozen i think those are the worth billions of [20:57] dollars um so this has been thrown in at the last minute um so i think the first hurdle will actually [21:03] be getting the two sides to talk in some form and then there are myriad issues to discuss i mean first [21:10] and foremost i suppose the nuclear issue that is uh at the root of the conflict between um iran and [21:16] israel and the west the iranians want to continue enriching uranium there's the question of the 400 [21:22] kilograms of uh uranium that it has already enriched to close to weapons grade and uh where is that now [21:31] it's believed to lie under the rubble um and there have been suggestions i think donald trump suggested [21:35] that the americans could help unearth it but so the the fate of iran's nuclear program then what about [21:43] its missile production israel and the us have always said that they don't want iran to have any [21:48] long-range missiles they have hit hard at the missile production facilities and storage facilities [21:55] but iran is still able to fire both missiles and drones and then crucially uh the strait of hormuz [22:02] what will happen with that and i think that on on what happens there will lie the the success or [22:09] otherwise of the talks if they go ahead at all and i think at this stage we have to say if i think that [22:15] there are high stakes for everyone involved and certainly the americans are very very keen to [22:21] to have the talks and as i said jd vance in the air at the moment but with these conditions that the [22:27] iranians have set who knows and and the pakistanis are remaining very tight-lipped about what's going [22:32] to happen where the talks are taking place and what's happened to the iranian delegation yeah it's [22:38] good that you injected that cautionary note there caroline and outlined the massive stakes here because [22:44] what are the risks briefly if they can't reach a deal and the war drags on well it's a risk to life [22:51] and limb isn't it you spoke about the the human cost um the many dead and injured in iran the massive [22:57] destruction to uh to iranian infrastructure including civilian infrastructure then if iran carries on [23:05] firing at the gulf damage to the gulf economies and then it with iran if it still holds this strangle [23:12] hold on the strait of hormuz that has implications for the entire global economy so everyone will be [23:18] watching very very closely what happens in pakistan over the hours ahead we will be indeed and we have [23:26] a big team in islamabad covering every development in pakistan for our viewers over the next couple [23:33] of days as well caroline hawley our diplomatic correspondent thank you so much for joining us [23:37] so much at stake as caroline said whether you're joining us on youtube tick tock sounds radio or tv [23:44] thanks for your time we'll be back at the same time tomorrow with the iran war today