31 minutes of Harry Enten running this week's numbers

[0:00] How can they be up by six but have such a lousy favorability rating? [0:03] Yeah, you see Democrats up by six and only 28% favorability rating. [0:07] How is that possible? [0:08] It is because of the double haters. [0:10] The most important one quarter of the electorate you have ever seen. [0:15] Take a look here. [0:16] Who double haters prefer among the 26% who dislike not just the Democrats but the Republicans as well? [0:22] Look at this. [0:23] Democrats up by a 55% to 24% margin. [0:26] That's a 31-point lead among that key quarter of the electorate who can't stand either party. [0:33] They are, in fact, the Democrats, the lesser of two evils. [0:36] This is the pox on both their houses caucus, basically. [0:39] So what has this group told us in the past? [0:41] What has this group told us in the past? [0:43] This is the biggest movement that we've seen in the electorate versus the 2022 midterms [0:48] when, of course, Republicans took back the House of Representatives. [0:51] Take a look here. [0:52] Okay, we talked about that 31-point lead that Democrats have right now. [0:56] But take a look among the double haters back in 2022. [1:00] Republicans won that group by 17 points. [1:02] And with that, were able to take back the House of Representatives. [1:06] Who wins double haters is the party that goes on to win the election. [1:10] Of course, this all had a genesis back in 2016 when, of course, Donald Trump was able to beat Hillary Clinton on the backs of double haters. [1:18] Republicans repeated that feat in the 2022 midterms. [1:21] And now Democrats look to be in the driver's seat among the voters who dislike both parties. [1:26] Those double haters. [1:27] What are Democrats feeling right now? [1:29] Okay, what are Democrats feeling right now? [1:31] You know, yesterday we did a segment about how even Democrats don't like their own leaders. [1:36] And a lot of Democrats don't even like their own party. [1:39] By the way, the Republicans, the Republican Party put that segment out like in two seconds. [1:42] Two seconds. Two seconds. [1:44] What are we talking about here? [1:46] But this is the key thing. [1:47] What is driving Democrats' votes? [1:50] How voters who are Democrats feel? [1:52] Disapprove of Trump, 99% of them. [1:55] Look at how close. [1:56] This plan to vote Dem in 2026 is 96%. [2:00] This, Donald John Trump, is the key motivating factor at this point for Democrats and who they're going to vote for. [2:09] Despite the fact that only 63% of Democrats view their own party favorably. [2:13] That is not what is driving them. [2:15] What is driving them is Donald John Trump. [2:18] They would go over hot coals. [2:21] They would literally crawl over hot coals to vote against Donald John Trump. [2:26] Even if there are a lot of them who don't like their own party. [2:29] Yeah, they're mad at themselves. [2:30] It doesn't mean that they're not going to go out there and vote for the Democrats. [2:33] They dislike themselves. [2:35] They hate, hate, hate Donald Trump. [2:38] All right, so what might this mean for Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority Leader right now? [2:43] Okay, what might this mean for Hakeem Jeffries? [2:45] How about the chance that Jeffries is the next House Speaker? [2:48] Look at this. [2:48] Three months ago, according to the cash prediction market, it was a 66% chance. [2:52] Now, today, we're talking about a 79% chance. [2:55] You know, look at those. [2:56] Look at those double haters. [2:57] And you know what you get? [2:58] You climb the mountain any way you can. [3:00] And at this point, it looks like Hakeem Jeffries is going to climb that mountain [3:03] and become the House Speaker, the next House Speaker, if the polling data holds, [3:07] on the backs of double haters. [3:09] But you know what? [3:09] Whatever way you can get there, you get there. [3:12] And I think Democrats will take it, even if they don't love it. [3:15] Bad news for Republicans hasn't really been good news for Democrats. [3:18] No, no, not at all, at least when it comes and you isolate Democrats. [3:21] I mean, these numbers are just atrociously awful. [3:25] A double A for the Democrats. [3:26] I mean, just take a look here. [3:28] Congressional Dems have the right priorities. [3:30] Look at this. [3:30] Overall, 74%, nearly three in four, say no. [3:36] Just 25% overall say yes. [3:39] You might say, okay, well, at least Dems like Democrats. [3:42] Uh-uh, not the case. [3:44] Look at this. [3:44] The majority of Democrats are independents who lean Democrats. [3:47] Look at this. [3:48] 55% say no. [3:50] Congressional Democrats do not have the right priorities. [3:53] And then you just see a minority. [3:55] 45% of Democrats say that Congressional Democrats have the right priorities. [4:00] This, to me, just jumps out at the screen [4:01] because it screams primary challenges all over the map. [4:04] And it says that even if Democrats don't like Donald Trump, [4:07] they don't like their own party either when it comes to Congress. [4:10] And overall, I mean, my goodness gracious. [4:12] So this is sort of like Democrat on Democrat crime here. [4:14] What's overall approval among Democrats of their leaders? [4:17] Yeah, okay. [4:18] So, you know, you speak about Democrat on Democrat crime. [4:21] And I want to know how unusual what we're seeing right now [4:24] about how Democrats, [4:25] Democrats, Democrats, Democrats, Democrats, Democrats, Democrats, Democrats, Democrats, [4:25] feel about Democrats in Congress. [4:27] Take a look at this. [4:28] This is a trend line going back through the years, [4:31] midterm elections in which there's a GOP president. [4:34] Look at this. [4:34] In 2006, Dems' net approval of Congressional Democratic leaders was plus 28. [4:39] You go back to last midterm, look at that, plus 19. [4:42] Very much on the positive side of the line. [4:44] The bottom has fallen out. [4:46] The bottom has fallen out. [4:47] Minus four points. [4:49] That is Democrats, Democrats' own net approval of their own Congressional leaders. [4:55] Even Democrats. [4:55] And Democrats don't like their own leaders when it comes to Congress. [4:59] And overall, of course, the numbers are just absolutely awful. [5:01] So Democrat on Democrat crime, absolutely. [5:04] This, to me, screams, again, primary challenges across the map. [5:08] And it screams to me, hey, when it comes to those next leadership elections, [5:11] maybe something might be choking. [5:13] It also just means we have to maybe look at these midterms differently [5:15] because this is a different prism. [5:17] We haven't seen this type of thing before. [5:18] We don't know what impact that might have. [5:20] That's exactly right. [5:21] And there are a lot of folks who have been looking at the generic congressional ballot [5:23] and wondering why Democrats don't have a larger, [5:25] and this is a big reason why, I would think. [5:28] Okay, so there's Hakeem Jeffries in the House. [5:31] Chuck Schumer is the Senate minority leader. [5:33] What might this mean for Chuck Schumer? [5:35] What are some of the predictions about whether he can stay as a Democratic leader? [5:38] Chuck Schumer has been the Senate leader for the Democrats for a long period of time, [5:42] before I even came to CNN. [5:44] And I'm not quite sure that he will say it. [5:46] Take a look at where the people who are putting their money where their mouth is. [5:49] Chance Schumer wins the next Dem Senate leader election. [5:52] Back on December 1, look at this. [5:53] It was two and three, according to the couch. [5:55] Prediction market. [5:56] Then drops to 56% in February. [5:59] And then look at where we are right now. [6:00] Just 50%. [6:01] A coin toss. [6:03] A coin toss. [6:04] If I had a coin, I would toss it up in the air. [6:05] A coin toss when it comes to Schumer actually winning the next Dem Senate leader election. [6:10] And we've seen a number of Senate candidates, Democrats, across the map saying, [6:15] we don't want any part of Chuck Schumer to be the next leader. [6:18] And there's a big reason why that is. [6:19] And it's because at this point, look at this. [6:22] This minus four. [6:23] Even Democrats don't approve. [6:25] They approve their own congressional leaders. [6:27] When I say a lot of Republicans have announced their retirement or they're not running again for the House, [6:31] I mean, how many would you say? [6:33] How would you put that in historical perspective? [6:34] You know, I would say that House Republicans are running for the exits faster than kids do on the final day of school. [6:41] I mean, just take a look here. [6:42] Oh, hello. [6:43] Most House retirements since 1930. [6:46] So far this cycle, already 36. [6:49] 36. [6:50] That is the grand record over the last nearly 100 years. [6:54] My goodness gracious. [6:55] That actually beats the former record in total, which was 34 back in the 2018 cycle. [7:00] And that wasn't that long ago. [7:02] And I do recall that was a very, very good year for House Democrats. [7:07] The bottom line is this. [7:08] You don't run for the exits unless you know trouble is brewing. [7:12] And House Republicans so far believe trouble is absolutely brewing. [7:16] Okay. [7:17] How do you know that? [7:18] What does history tell us about these types of exits? [7:20] Okay. [7:21] So, you know, I say it's brewing and sometimes I just like to pontificate. [7:25] But sometimes. [7:25] I actually have facts behind me. [7:27] Let's take a look here. [7:28] Okay. [7:29] Party with the fewer House retirements since 1982 and midterm cycles. [7:34] They went on to win the U.S. House 80% of the time. [7:37] Far fewer Democrats are retiring this cycle than Republicans. [7:41] When one side runs for the exits, right? [7:43] I'm doing my best right here. [7:45] My best Usain Bolt right here. [7:46] When one side runs for the exits, they lose the House of Representatives. [7:50] When one side stays put, it's because they think something good is going to happen. [7:55] And House Democrats clearly think something is good going to happen. [7:59] And House Republicans clearly think something very bad, very bad is going to happen. [8:03] Again, we said this is basically a record since 1930. [8:06] More than we've seen in 100 years. [8:07] And that's just so far. [8:08] That's just so far. [8:09] This is, I think, what's so clear is this number is likely to climb ever higher. [8:14] Okay. [8:14] So what are they looking at? [8:15] Sam Graves last Thursday. [8:16] And it was a surprise. [8:17] It was a bit of a reversal. [8:18] What might he have been looking at that caused him to retire? [8:21] You know, some elected officials aren't so smart, but many of them are. [8:24] And they're looking at the same numbers we're looking at. [8:27] And what they're looking at is the president of the United States and his approval rating. [8:31] So why don't we just take a look here? [8:32] Why are GOP retiring? [8:34] Okay. [8:34] When the president's approval is less than 50 percent, I went back all the way through [8:38] the record books, all the way back since 1938 and midterm elections. [8:42] When the House, the press party in the House, on average, loses 34 seats, loses 34 seats [8:50] when the president's approval rating is less than 50 percent. [8:52] Donald Trump isn't anywhere close. [8:54] He's at 50 percent. [8:55] He's at 40 percent. [8:56] The average, the House, the House for the president's party, they lose 34 seats. [9:00] The least, the least was just nine. [9:02] That was actually Joe Biden back in 2022. [9:05] But guess what? [9:06] House Democrats only need to pick up of one, two, three in order to gain a majority. [9:11] So the least, even the worst case scenario for Democrats is not anywhere close to what [9:16] Republicans need to hold on to the House of Representatives. [9:19] And one little last historical anecdote as I go over to the blackboard over here. [9:22] The only two times that the president's party did not lose at least three seats was 1998 and 2002. [9:29] You know what the president's approval rating was in those years? [9:31] It was 60 percent plus. [9:35] And Donald Trump at this point is just at a 40 percent approval rate, nowhere near what [9:39] House Republicans need. [9:40] And that is why I said they're running to the exits. [9:44] John laughing over there. [9:45] No, no. [9:45] I mean, you have great form. [9:46] Harry, thank you. [9:47] This number very different than the president's current approval rate. [9:50] 60 is very different from 40. [9:52] Thank you very much. [9:53] Was that good form? [9:55] Because I'm thinking of running a long race. [9:57] Sarah, we're going to run that marathon very much. [10:01] Are we? [10:02] OK, got it. [10:03] You're good. [10:03] Look, our latest CNN SSRS poll took a gauge of Americans about how they feel about the [10:08] war in Iran right now. [10:10] And the only adjective that I can find to describe their feelings towards the war in [10:14] Iran and President Trump's handling of it is awful. [10:18] Awful, awful, awful. [10:19] I mean, just look here. [10:21] Look, the war was not popular to begin with. [10:23] And it has somehow become even less popular. [10:26] Net approval rating of the US military action in Iran at the start of the war. [10:30] Again, minus 18 points. [10:31] That's not good at all. [10:33] But as we have gone in a month, then that number has managed to fall. [10:36] Look at this. [10:37] We're talking about minus 32 points, minus 32 points or 32 points more likely if you're [10:42] in the American public to disapprove than approve of the war in Iran right now. [10:46] And amongst independents, I always like these little notes for myself. [10:50] Look at that in the center of the electorate, the net approval rating among independents on the [10:53] war in Iran minus 48 points. [10:56] Only about one in four independents approve of the war in Iran right now. [11:02] And of course, this has had political ramifications for President Trump. [11:06] One of the reasons why they don't approve of the war in Iran right now is they just [11:09] don't trust Trump when it comes to his role as commander in chief. [11:13] Again, look at this. [11:14] Trump's net approval rating in his role as commander in chief before the war began. [11:18] Americans were not so hot to trot on the president. [11:21] His net approval rating in his role as commander in chief. [11:23] He was only at about 18 points underwater. [11:26] But look at this. [11:27] That number fallen, fallen. [11:29] Look at this now. [11:30] Negative 33 points. [11:32] Only one in three Americans approve of the job that President Trump is doing in his role [11:38] as commander in chief. [11:40] And among independents, again, such a key nugget that I keep harping on. [11:44] It's even worse. [11:45] Just 23 percent of independents, less than one in four, approve of the job that President [11:52] Trump is doing. [11:52] In his role. [11:53] As commander in chief. [11:53] Now, when it comes to the war, more generally speaking, I like to make historical comparisons [11:59] to put how bad these numbers are into context. [12:02] And we can look back at the Iraq war, another war in the Middle East at the beginning of [12:06] this century, going back 23 years ago. [12:09] Is the war worth the cost about this point in the war? [12:12] Look back in 2003 when it came to the Iraq war, about three in five Americans, 59 percent [12:19] said, yes, the war in Iraq back then was, in fact, worth the cost. [12:23] Now, this number would fall, but at the beginning of the war, the Iraq war was actually popular [12:27] and Americans thought that it was worth the cost. [12:29] Look at this now. [12:31] Only about half as many, in fact, slightly less than half as many Americans say that [12:35] the Iran war is worth the cost. [12:38] And that's not so much of a surprise as gas prices climb ever higher. [12:43] Overall, this poll, just an abject disaster for the president of the United States. [12:47] His approval rating, only about one in three, maybe slightly more than that overall. [12:51] When it comes to Iran. [12:52] We're talking about a war that is becoming less popular by the day. [12:56] And Americans, simply put, do not believe that it is worth the cost, which is very much [13:01] a historical anomaly when it comes to wars in their early days. [13:04] This is no April Fool's joke. [13:06] This is a disaster. [13:07] All these numbers are a disaster for President Trump. [13:10] I mean, let's just talk about inflation, which is the name of the game. [13:13] OK, highest disapprovals on this on inflation about this time in a presidency. [13:18] Whenever you have Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter on the board and you're matching them or slightly [13:23] exceeding them when it comes to inflation, you know it's bad. [13:25] Look at this. [13:26] Seventy two percent in our latest CNN poll say they disapprove of the president on inflation. [13:31] Joe Biden, an average of polls at this point in his presidency, 68 percent. [13:35] And Jimmy Carter, whose presidency, just like Joe Biden's, was absolutely wrecked by inflation, [13:40] was at 66 percent about at this point in his presidency back in nineteen hundred and seventy [13:45] eight. [13:46] Donald Trump even worse than they are. [13:49] So you see it here. [13:50] And the one word is or phrase. [13:52] I might say is, oh, my goodness gracious. [13:55] What a disaster. [13:56] It just what's so interesting here is inflation was way, way higher. [14:01] Yes. [14:02] So they just right now voters don't like what the president is doing on it, even if it isn't [14:06] as high as it was at these other times. [14:08] What about gas prices? [14:09] What about gas prices, which, of course, is part of this inflation picture, only making [14:13] this nine number climb ever higher. [14:15] How about disapprove on gas prices? [14:17] OK, disapproval ratings on gas prices, Biden's worst number, his worst number in any poll [14:21] I could find. [14:22] Was seventy two percent disapprove of Joe Biden on gas prices. [14:26] Donald Trump right now in our CNN poll, seventy six percent, seventy six percent, three in [14:32] four Americans disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling gas prices. [14:38] And again, the gas prices were higher during Biden. [14:41] But the increase has been so dramatic. [14:43] Under the last month under Donald Trump, we're talking about an increase of about a dollar. [14:47] It's the highest increase that we've seen since at least nineteen hundred ninety one [14:51] in terms of raw dollars. [14:52] No wonder. [14:52] Under this number is so high he is beating or doing even worse than Joe Biden was on [14:57] gas prices, which, of course, was such a major issue. [15:01] So talk about his disapproval on the economy. [15:04] Put it in historical perspective. [15:05] OK, so you see the gas prices here. [15:07] Disaster. [15:08] You see the inflation here. [15:10] Disaster. [15:11] How about the economy? [15:12] You know, you mentioned it was the worst in terms of the approval rating for Donald Trump [15:16] in any poll conducted. [15:17] How about highest disapprovals on the economy about this point in term two? [15:21] Look at this. [15:22] In our poll, sixty nine percent disapproved of Donald Trump on the economy. [15:26] For George W. Bush, it was fifty seven percent in terms of the average Barack Obama, fifty [15:31] six percent. [15:32] Donald Trump is crushing him on a metric. [15:34] You don't want to be crushing anybody on which is disapproval ratings on the economy. [15:37] He's double digits worse. [15:39] I was looking at some other polling data also above the fifty seven to fifty six percent, [15:42] the worst of all time at this point in term number two. [15:46] It's the economy dragging Trump down, being, of course, accelerated by inflation, being [15:52] so bad. [15:53] And of course, the gas prices just adding up. [15:55] It's like a pancake tower and you're just reaching the top. [15:58] And this is not a tower. [15:59] You want to climb. [16:00] One of the things you deal with when you deal with economic sentiment is how people feel [16:03] things are going to be. [16:04] So what are the prediction markets saying about where they see inflation? [16:07] Yeah. [16:08] Where do the where does the calcium prediction market say that we're going on inflation [16:11] chance CPI year over year is above four percent in any month in twenty, twenty six, sixty [16:16] four percent. [16:17] That would be the for the first time since twenty, twenty three. [16:21] So. [16:22] With the power that we're going up, it seems like there are more steps on a stairway, certainly [16:26] not to heaven. [16:27] More like hell. [16:28] If you're the president, United States, I mean, the White House certainly doesn't want [16:31] the predictions to be right about this. [16:32] That's clear. [16:33] What are the prediction markets saying about whether it can be done? [16:35] Yeah, I've never whispered once in my life, John, but look, the voices are getting louder [16:39] and louder and louder. [16:41] They may be, in fact, a Festivus miracle for Democrats, because just take a look at the [16:45] calcium prediction market. [16:46] This is the Dems chances to win twenty, twenty six Senate races. [16:49] And these are all GOP held seats. [16:51] Look at this. [16:52] Minor. [16:53] What are we looking at? [16:54] Roy Cooper, the Democrat nominee. [16:55] They're an eighty four percent chance in Maine. [16:57] Could they knock off Susan Collins? [16:59] That of course, was a state won by Kamala Harris, a seventy one percent chance there. [17:02] Alaska, Alaska, which hasn't in fact elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, a fifty [17:07] six percent chance there. [17:09] And then Sherrod Brown, the very likely Democrat nominee, a fifty four percent chance in Ohio. [17:14] Of course, Sherrod Brown was knocked off back in twenty, twenty four. [17:17] But I will note he was reelected during a Trump midterm back in twenty eighteen. [17:21] Okay. [17:22] So if this were to hold, if the prediction markets were to be right and go four for four [17:26] here, what would that mean for the U.S. Senate? [17:28] If Democrats pulled off the Festivus miracle and went four for four, which the cash prediction [17:32] market says, hey, is a real possibility. [17:34] Look at this. [17:35] They would, in fact, get to fifty one Senate seats. [17:38] You'll win up in Maine, okay? [17:40] You'll win in Ohio. [17:42] You'll win in North Carolina. [17:44] And you'll win the big state of Alaska, which we got all the way back, what, in eighteen [17:48] hundred and sixty seven. [17:50] It's so large. [17:51] It would, in fact, get you to fifty one Senate seats. [17:54] So, you know, it was something that was whispering about, but like me, getting louder and louder [17:58] and louder. [17:59] Okay. [18:00] And one of the reasons is maybe how the president is doing in some of these states. [18:04] Yeah. [18:05] Okay. [18:06] So what are we talking about here? [18:07] Well, let's take a look at Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio. [18:09] Let's take the aggregate totals in all of them. [18:11] Look back in the twenty, twenty four election across those three, Trump won by seven points. [18:16] But look at his net approval rating now. [18:18] His net approval rating way down. [18:20] He's no longer popular in these states. [18:22] He's at ten points underwater. [18:24] So all of a sudden you're thinking yourself, hey, you know what? [18:26] These are Trump won states, but he's no longer popular. [18:29] He has become quite unpopular. [18:31] And the other little nugget I'll note is, you know, we said four for four, but there [18:35] is a fifth possibility because you got a Texas backup, right? [18:38] Choice for Texas Senate, James Tallarico versus John Cornyn. [18:42] Cornyn's only up by a point. [18:43] Kemp Paxton only up by two. [18:45] So maybe you lose in a state like Alaska, but hey, you can sub into Texas and still [18:49] get to fifty one. [18:50] For them. [18:51] So it's not so much of a long shot, at least anymore. [18:53] This was happening even before the Warner on, but it seems to have sped up a little [18:57] bit. [18:58] How low are we talking? [18:59] We are talking as low as Death Valley. [19:01] And this, I think, is so key here, which is, you know, Johnny B was pointing out, you know, [19:06] it is sped up now, but this has been a steady fall into the abyss. [19:11] There is no bottom Death Valley, Death Sea. [19:15] That is how low we are going. [19:16] And look at this. [19:17] I think this really just kind of shows that it is not one event that is. [19:20] Dragging Donald Trump down. [19:21] It's a slew of events that have come together and have continuously dropped his net approval [19:25] rating. [19:26] You know, you go back to last year when he was sworn in for a second term, he was a plus [19:29] six points that minus three points a year ago, minus seven points nine months ago, minus [19:34] ten points in October twenty four twenty twenty five, January twenty twenty six minus thirteen [19:38] points. [19:39] And now all the way down to minus eighteen points, a term too low. [19:45] And what is so key to point out here is let's just say that somehow we got out of the Iran. [19:50] War tomorrow. [19:51] Yeah, it might climb a little bit, but we have seen this steady, slow or steady and [19:57] dropping number that just seems no sign of rising. [20:01] What's the comparison with his first term at all? [20:02] Yeah, I think what's so important to point out here is right now we've seen that steady [20:07] drop downward in term one. [20:09] It was anything but that. [20:10] Take a look here. [20:11] The three month change in Trump's net approval rating at this point in the term in term one, [20:15] he was actually rising at this point. [20:17] He was actually going up. [20:18] His three month change was up by five points. [20:19] Yeah. [20:20] Five points. [20:21] Now we're talking about a three month change in which he has fallen to a new term too low [20:26] in which he's at minus eighteen points in term one. [20:28] At this point, he was actually higher. [20:30] Remember, Trump was breaking all those records during term one. [20:33] Right. [20:34] But at this point, term one, he was at minus twelve point is not approval rating. [20:36] He is now six points lower than he was at term two at where he is right now in term [20:41] two at this point. [20:42] And he is just continuously falling while term one he managed to turn it around. [20:45] It was actually rising. [20:47] And there is no sign of any bottom at this point. [20:49] And term number two. [20:50] Yeah. [20:51] A big, big difference there in Republicans who are running for office in a few months [20:54] watching this with a lot of trepidation. [20:56] Let's talk about independents, which has been this group which really has just been eye [20:59] popping the last few months. [21:01] Eye popping indeed. [21:02] This number if if there's one big number from this is that Donald Trump now has the worst [21:08] net approval rating among independents of any president ever at this point in term two. [21:13] He is worse than Richard Nixon, who would be going adios amigos in a few months back [21:18] in nineteen hundred. [21:19] Seventy four and term to look at this minus forty five points worse than George W. Bush [21:24] at this point in term to the Iraq war was waiting him down at minus thirty seven and [21:28] worse than Richard Nixon when, of course, there were all those impeachment hearings [21:31] back in nineteen hundred and seventy four at minus thirty six points. [21:34] He's nearly ten points worse among independents on his net approval rating at this point in [21:38] term two. [21:39] Donald Trump is then Richard Nixon. [21:42] My goodness gracious. [21:44] Hide it watering. [21:45] We're comparing it to here. [21:46] All right. [21:47] Talk about possible collateral damage. [21:48] I mean, the president. [21:49] You can't run again despite musings there. [21:51] But what impact might this be having on, say, others close to him, others close to him, [21:55] the vice president, United States chance that J.D. Vance is a twenty twenty eight Republican [21:59] nominee six months ago. [22:01] He was at a fifty three percent chance down. [22:03] He goes he goes down at thirty seven percent chance, according to the calcium prediction [22:07] market. [22:08] This is tied for his all time low J.D. Vance. [22:12] But you know, you just go back here a slow or steady drop. [22:16] My goodness gracious. [22:17] With no sign of a bottom. [22:18] Death. [22:19] Valley. [22:20] How popular was Pam Bondi, you know, before yesterday, before she got fired? [22:23] Yeah, the American people are saying, thank God, Pam Bondi is gone. [22:27] She wore on them like an in-law who stayed too late past Christmas vacation. [22:30] I mean, just take a look here. [22:32] Net popularity of Pam Bondi in January twenty twenty five. [22:35] You know what? [22:36] She was actually in the positive side of the ledger. [22:38] Look at this at plus one points. [22:40] But look at this. [22:41] Down she goes. [22:42] The more people got to new Pam Bondi, the less they liked her. [22:45] Her net popularity rating by the end. [22:47] Negative nineteen points. [22:49] A twenty. [22:49] Twenty point shift in the wrong direction. [22:52] Of course, one of the key reasons being why was the Epstein case, which, of course, she [22:56] was helping in charge of of that particular in the Trump administration and the American [23:00] people simply put, did not like Pam Bondi. [23:03] How does this compare to other people who've had the job? [23:06] Yeah. [23:07] Okay. [23:08] So, you know, President Trump sees this. [23:09] He sees, oh, my God, he's wearing on my she's wearing on my administration. [23:12] And more than that, he might recall that there was actually a fairly popular attorney general [23:16] at this point in administration. [23:17] Look at this. [23:18] Look at the popularity of attorney attorneys general about this time in the presidency. [23:22] Look, Joe Biden's Merrick Garland was actually on the plus side of ledger at plus six points. [23:27] Look at this. [23:28] Pam Bondi far more unpopular here at minus nineteen points at this point. [23:32] So we're talking about Merrick Garland being more than twenty five points more popular [23:36] in the net popularity rating. [23:38] And that's the reason why I had to put this former in parentheses right here, because [23:42] Pam Bondi is bye bye Bondi. [23:45] She's still serving for a little while longer. [23:47] She's a fire. [23:48] Yeah. [23:48] You know, the honor of getting to keep the job for a few more days until she loses her [23:52] access to the building. [23:53] You talked about Epstein. [23:55] You know, how does that issue rank among others? [23:58] Yeah. [23:59] How does it rank? [24:00] You know, the idea is, OK, we'll get rid of Pam Bondi and maybe that would somehow make [24:03] you more popular. [24:04] Donald Trump and the Epstein case. [24:05] Look, the Epstein case is going to continue to be a big problem for Donald Trump, because [24:10] just take a look here. [24:12] Take a look at Trump's net approval rating, immigration, foreign policy, the economy, [24:15] trade tariffs. [24:16] The Epstein case. [24:17] Look at this. [24:19] These are the worst issue for Donald Trump of the major issues at negative 40 points. [24:25] Negative 40 points. [24:26] Worse than immigration, worse than foreign policy, worse than the economy, worse than [24:28] trade and tariffs. [24:29] So the bottom line is this. [24:31] The Epstein case is not going away. [24:33] If you're Donald Trump, even a Pam Bondi is going away. [24:37] The Epstein case is going to continue to weigh on the president of the United States. [24:41] But you don't want to be the face of that issue in the administration. [24:43] No. [24:44] OK. [24:45] What are the markets saying about who might be next as attorney general? [24:47] OK. [24:48] So who might be next? [24:49] Our attorney general. [24:50] Let's take a look at the couch prediction market. [24:51] Take a look here. [24:52] Chance to be Trump's next attorney general. [24:54] Lee Zeldin is the favorite at this point, of course. [24:56] Lee Zeldin from the great state of New York, the great island of Long, 60 percent chance. [25:01] Todd Blanchard, a 26 percent chance. [25:03] So at this point, Zeldin is in the driver's seat. [25:06] But I'm not quite sure it's a job you really want. [25:09] President Trump made an historic trip to the Supreme Court, the first ever president, we [25:14] believe, to sit and listen to arguments before the court. [25:17] This was over birthright citizens. [25:19] And his executive order to severely limit birthright citizenship. [25:22] So how did the arguments go? [25:24] How did the president's trip go? [25:26] With us now, CNN chief data analyst, Harriett. [25:30] And so if his goal was to go there and maybe sway the court, you know, to his side, what [25:37] are the prediction markets saying? [25:38] The prediction markets viewed yesterday as an absolute train wreck for the president [25:42] of the United States. [25:43] And that matches what a lot of analysts believe after listening to those arguments yesterday. [25:47] Take a look. [25:49] The birthright order takes effect before August. [25:51] On Tuesday, it wasn't so hot the trot. [25:53] It was 20 percent. [25:54] But somehow it went through the basement. [25:56] Look at this. [25:57] Now just a 7 percent chance, according to the Cal State prediction market, that in fact [26:01] that birthright citizenship order takes effect before August. [26:04] So the people who are putting their money where their mouths are very much agree with [26:07] the analysts who think that what happened yesterday in the Supreme Court was no bueno [26:12] for the president of the United States. [26:13] All right. [26:14] How have Americans' attitudes, how have they changed over time on this specific issue? [26:17] Yeah. [26:18] You see a 7 percent here. [26:19] Very low that the chance that Trump's birthright citizenship order will in fact take effect [26:23] before August. [26:24] And the American people very happy about that because this has been one of the biggest switches [26:28] that we've really seen in politics when it comes to something as important as birthright [26:32] citizenship. [26:33] Take a look here. [26:34] Birthright citizenship. [26:35] Favor opposed. [26:36] Back in August of 2010, in fact, what you saw was the plurality, 50 percent opposed [26:41] it. [26:42] Favor 47 percent. [26:43] But that favor number, way, way up over the last decade and a half. [26:46] Now we're talking about. [26:47] A very nice 69 percent, in fact, of Americans favor birthright citizenship. [26:52] That opposed number has absolutely fallen to just 31 percent. [26:56] This is one of the most popular issues that we see right now in the American public. [27:00] The American public very much in favor of birthright citizenship for children born to [27:06] immigrants here illegally. [27:07] What about shifting views on immigration? [27:08] Yeah. [27:09] Okay. [27:10] So you see this 69 percent, the favor. [27:11] This is part of a larger story in terms of immigration and Americans liking it. [27:16] Take. [27:17] Immigration is good for the U.S. [27:18] Look at this change from 2024 to 2025. [27:21] Seventy nine percent overall of Americans say that, in fact, immigration is good for [27:26] the U.S. [27:27] A big jump up from when Joe Biden was president back in 2024. [27:30] Even among Republicans. [27:31] Look at that. [27:32] Thirty nine percent. [27:33] Now, 64 percent, 64 percent of Republicans say that is immigration is good for the U.S. [27:38] And more than that, this 79 percent record high, a record high percentage of Americans [27:43] now say that immigration is good for the United States of America. [27:47] So the American public is it went from a minority issue to a majority. [27:49] That's exactly right. [27:50] This is a huge jump. [27:51] Thirty nine percent to 64 percent. [27:53] Fascinating. [27:54] All right. [27:55] How about the president's approval on the issue of him? [27:57] Okay. [27:58] So you see immigration becoming more popular. [27:59] Trump stances on immigration going the exact opposite way, becoming less popular. [28:03] Look at this. [28:04] Take a look. [28:05] Trump's not approving on immigration. [28:06] January 2025. [28:07] It was plus seven. [28:08] Way down there. [28:09] Look at that. [28:10] A 20 point shift. [28:11] Negative 13 points. [28:12] Independence from plus three. [28:14] They like Trump at the beginning of his term. [28:15] Two thumbs up. [28:17] Independence down through the floor. [28:18] Negative 24 points. [28:19] So the bottom line is immigration becoming more popular. [28:22] Trump stances the exact opposite way, becoming much less popular. [28:25] Twenty seven point shift among independents. [28:27] Huge. [28:28] Outfront's own producer, Emily Bushy, correctly predicted the final four of the men's NCAA [28:33] tournament. [28:35] Yes, she somehow anticipated UConn's stunning upset over Duke in the Elite Eight. [28:39] Congressman Ro Khanna stopped by the show last night. [28:41] He heard about Emily's picks, gave her the props. [28:43] He tweeted, Aaron Burnett Booker picked the correct final four. [28:46] Never met someone who had done that before. [28:48] I mean, picking UConn instead of Duke. [28:51] Harry Anton is out front to tell us something we don't know. [28:54] Harry, OK, this is rare, right? [28:57] What Emily did is rare, but it is more than rare, right? [29:01] It's more than rare. [29:02] I could tell you, you know, I get paid to be a data journalist and I've never done it. [29:06] I mean, I did want UConn to win, but I would never have picked it. [29:09] And I would just say, just take a look at I mean, that was a great victory, by the way. [29:12] Holy smokes. [29:13] Duke going down is an amazing thing for America. [29:15] But either way, pick men's final four. [29:17] Correctly, look at this in terms of the percentage of brackets. [29:20] Just zero point three four percent of all brackets actually picked a perfect final four. [29:27] I went through the statistics and found that there is a less of a chance that you pick [29:31] the final four than actually getting a straight in poker. [29:34] And of course, a straight in poker is very, very difficult, Aaron. [29:39] I mean, OK, it's amazing. [29:40] So it is actually by the way, you look at that point three four percent. [29:45] It was harder to get the final four. [29:47] Bracket this year than it was last year. [29:49] Right. [29:50] I mean, again, let's put rare in context. [29:52] Yeah. [29:53] I mean, let's put into some context here. [29:54] I mean, just take a look here. [29:55] You mentioned that zero point three four percent. [29:58] How about back in twenty twenty five? [30:00] Look at this. [30:01] It was eight percent more than 20 times harder this year than last year. [30:05] You did it last year. [30:06] I'd be like, hey, you know what? [30:08] There are a lot of people who got it right. [30:10] It was basically a chalk bracket, you know, in terms of just picking the top seats. [30:13] But this year it was so much more difficult. [30:16] I mean. [30:17] And as of late on Sunday, when you come was down, you know, what was it by like 19 points? [30:21] The idea? [30:22] No one had it. [30:23] No one had it. [30:24] But Emily Bush, Emily Bush, she had it. [30:27] I mean, yeah. [30:28] And then that moment, I think in my house, actually, the TV turned on, I think probably [30:31] about 30 seconds before the moment my husband started screaming and I'm thinking, what just [30:36] happened here anyway? [30:37] Little did I know Emily Bush, she became a queen. [30:40] OK. [30:41] Yes. [30:42] Tell me something else. [30:43] I don't know here. [30:44] I'll tell you something else. [30:45] You don't know. [30:46] I mean, just take a look at the experts. [30:49] Final four correct teams. [30:50] We have Emily Bush up here with four. [30:52] How about Sir Charles Barkley with just two? [30:55] How about a former president of the United States, a huge fan of basketball, Barack Obama? [31:00] Just two. [31:01] How about famed sportscaster Hannah Storm, who, of course, hosted all of those NBA pregame [31:05] shows, all those NBA finals back in the day, now at ESPN. [31:08] Look at that. [31:09] Just two. [31:10] So Emily Bush crushing that field, doing something historic. [31:13] I say bravo, Emily.