28 minutes of Harry Enten running this week's numbers

[0:00] So one of the things that Harry loves almost as much as politics is Carvel. [0:04] And Harry and I share that love of Carvel. [0:06] Where is it? Where's that Carvel? [0:07] And so, we decided that... [0:10] How about a little Fudgy the Whip? [0:12] Yes! We found Fudgy. [0:15] This is not sponsored, by the way. [0:16] Hashtag, this is not a bad. [0:18] Fudgy is starting to slip. [0:19] Yay! [0:20] I warn you, Fudgy may be a little... [0:24] Sarah Seidner coming through with the cake. [0:27] Oh my goodness! [0:28] Did you see how high Harry jumped? [0:29] Yes! [0:30] This is a dream come true. [0:32] If there was a pole, and it was this high, you'd be hitting it. [0:36] I am through the roof! [0:38] Watch out, don't drop Fudgy. [0:39] Don't worry. [0:40] How is the president standing right now, March 24th, 2025, with men? [0:45] Is it 2026? [0:46] Oh shoot, it is 2026. [0:47] Time flies when you're having fun here with Harry and Fudgy. [0:49] It's very true, although the older I get, I don't even know, the beard gets greater. [0:53] Look, the bottom line is this, Erica Hill. [0:56] Donald Trump and Republicans won in 2024 because of support [0:59] from Republicans. [1:00] Male voters. [1:01] The only way they can win, given the gender gap in this country, is support from male [1:05] voters, and male voters are abandoning Donald Trump. [1:09] Take a look here. [1:09] This gives the game away. [1:10] Okay, Trump's standing with men. [1:12] In November of 2024, he beat Kamala Harris among them by 13 points. [1:16] By 13 points. [1:17] Look at where he is now on his net approval rating. [1:19] Down he goes. [1:20] It's a 20-point shift away from Donald Trump. [1:23] He is now seven points underwater at this particular point among men. [1:27] I think it is very difficult for Republicans to do well. [1:30] In this midterm cycle, if Donald Trump is underwater with men, as my uncle once wrote, [1:36] where the boys are, where the men are, they are underwater when it comes to Donald Johnson. [1:40] Okay, so that's overall men, but what about young men who were really influential? [1:45] Yes, young men. [1:46] Of course, there was a massive shift to Donald Trump from 2020 to 2024 among young men. [1:53] And look right here. [1:54] Whoa! [1:55] Yikes. [1:56] Yikes, yikes, yikes. [1:57] Men under the age of 25 on Trump. [1:59] He won them in 2024. [2:00] He won them in 2024 by five points. [2:02] Look where he is now. [2:03] The net approval rating way down there. [2:06] Down we go to negative 19 points. [2:09] That's nearly, what is that, nearly a 25-point switcheroo against the president of the United States. [2:15] When it comes to men under the age of 45, those men that had switched their allegiances over to the Republican Party [2:22] are seeing what the president is doing. [2:24] They don't like what the president is doing. [2:25] And they are very much soured on the president of the United States, men under the age of 45. [2:29] What is it specifically? [2:30] What is it specifically that they don't like? [2:31] What issues have caused them to sour on President Trump? [2:34] I think there are a lot of issues that have caused them to sour on President Trump. [2:37] But one in particular, we've spoken about it over and over and over again. [2:42] It's the cost of living. [2:44] It's inflation. [2:45] Look at this. [2:46] Okay, men on Trump and the cost of living. [2:48] In October of 2024, look at this. [2:50] Trump was trusted more than Kamala Harris by 10 points on this issue. [2:54] Now we've got a 40-point switcheroo in the other direction. [2:57] Look at this. [2:58] His net approval rating on the cost of living. [3:00] Among men is underwater by 30 percentage points. [3:05] You see this. [3:06] There is no way in God's green earth that the Republican Party can hold on to the House of Representatives [3:12] if this number holds. [3:13] When you're 30 points underwater with the gender that, of course, [3:16] puts you over the top in the election on the cost of living, the number one issue, [3:20] that means see you later to that Republican House majority and maybe that Senate majority as well. [3:25] Wow. [3:25] All right. [3:25] Well, we'll be watching. [3:26] Thank you, my friend. [3:27] Strong words from an aging man. [3:29] Yeah, it's 26, by the way. [3:30] Thanks. [3:30] It's 26. [3:31] My age. [3:32] When there was this slew of initial polls that came out, [3:34] the Fox News poll was the one initial poll that did not show that the war was unpopular. [3:40] That has changed. [3:40] Trump has lost his one good poll when it comes to the Iran war. [3:43] Because just take a look here. [3:45] Net approval rating of U.S. military action in Iran. [3:47] In early March, it broke even, right? [3:49] Zero points. [3:50] What that essentially means is 50% approved, 50% disapproved. [3:54] But down it goes. [3:55] Look at this now. [3:56] The net approval rating for the U.S. military action in Iran, [3:59] negative 60%. [4:00] 16 points. [4:01] Just 42% of the American public approve of it. [4:04] 58% disapprove. [4:06] So now we're looking at basically every single poll in which the clear plurality or majority of Americans [4:13] disapprove with the U.S. military action in Iran. [4:16] Trump can no longer point to a poll that actually shows that among the general public at large [4:21] that the American public actually approve of this military action. [4:24] So this is the overwhelming for the Iran war. [4:26] When it comes to how President Trump is handling Iran in general, what do we see? [4:30] Yeah. [4:30] You see this negative 16 points. [4:32] You think that's bad. [4:33] But look at Trump's handling of it. [4:34] It's even worse. [4:36] Oh, my. [4:36] Okay. [4:37] Trump's net approval rating of Iran. [4:38] Look at this. [4:39] Overall, 28 points underwater. [4:43] Very, very unpopular. [4:45] Donald Trump's actions are when it comes to Iran. [4:47] And look at those in the Senate or the electorate. [4:49] Look at independents. [4:50] Whoo! [4:51] Negative 58 points. [4:54] 58 points underwater Donald Trump is when it comes to Iran. [4:58] And, of course, this has been dominating. [4:59] Dominating politics over the last month. [5:03] And so what we see here is the U.S. military action in Iran not popular in a poll. [5:07] It used to be actually not so bad. [5:09] And Donald Trump's handling of it even worse. [5:11] And those in the Senate electorate, you can barely find any independents at this point who approve the U.S. military action in Iran. [5:17] So earlier this week, the president's overall approval numbers were not great. [5:21] I think they had you saying, yikes. [5:23] Where do they stand in this Fox News poll? [5:24] You know, we have been talking about in poll after poll after poll. [5:27] Look, you can look at one poll and you see, okay, Donald Trump. [5:30] Hit a new all-time low. [5:31] And you go, okay, maybe an outlier. [5:33] Then you see two. [5:33] Then you see three. [5:34] Then you see four. [5:35] And here, how about number five? [5:36] Okay, Trump's net approval rating. [5:38] In March of 2025, according to Fox News, he was at minus two points. [5:42] Look at where he is now. [5:43] A term too low. [5:45] 18 points underwater, according to Fox News. [5:48] There is simply put no poll you can point to at this point at which Donald Trump is either at or near a record low. [5:55] And this is yet another one. [5:57] And he is just struggling mightily. [5:59] This Iran. [6:00] War is simply put at this point a few weeks in not popular. [6:03] And it is becoming less popular the longer it goes on. [6:07] We have seen the headlines. [6:08] You're feeling them, I'm sure, personally in your wallet. [6:11] Whether it's gas prices or groceries, prices are going up. [6:14] And the conversation around the economy is, frankly, louder than ever. [6:17] So how do Americans really feel about the economy now under President Trump? [6:22] Who better to ask than CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten here to run the numbers for us. [6:26] So where do things stand? [6:28] And I guess how has that standing changed? [6:29] How has that standing changed for President Trump when it comes to the economy? [6:32] You know, if I was a member of the White House, these are the numbers that would make me go, yikes. [6:36] And if I was a Republican member of Congress, I would want to run. [6:40] But there truthfully is no place to hide. [6:41] Because just take a look here. [6:43] OK, Trump will or is making you financially worse off, better off. [6:46] The reason he was reelected to a second term back in October of 2024 is the plurality of set that Trump's policies would make them better off. [6:53] 44% to 38% who say worse off. [6:55] Come up to this side of the screen. [6:57] That worse off, up like a rocket. [6:58] We're talking. [6:59] 53%. [7:00] Wow, exactly right. [7:01] Wow. [7:02] 53% of Americans now say that Trump's policies make them worse off compared to just 18%. [7:07] Just 18% who say better off. [7:09] So that six-point plurality in favor of better off back in October of 2024 has become a 35-point plurality in terms of worse off. [7:17] Again, these are numbers that would make me go, yikes, if I were in the White House. [7:20] So what about independents? [7:22] Because I know we always like to focus on independents to get a real sense of where they are. [7:25] How do they feel? [7:26] Yeah, OK. [7:26] You think these numbers are bad, Erica Hill? [7:28] Take a look among independents. [7:30] They're even worse. [7:31] Take a look here. [7:32] Hello. [7:32] OK. [7:33] Independents. [7:33] Trump, Willer is making you. [7:35] Yeah. [7:35] Ooh, ooh, ooh. [7:37] October of 2024, the slight plurality, though, within the margin of error, said better off 40%, worse off 38%. [7:42] Now, just 13%, a very unlucky 13, indeed, of independents say that Trump's policies are making you financially better off compared to 63 in five independents who say worse off, worse off. [7:57] That is now a 47%. [7:58] That is now a 47-point majority in favor of worse off compared to a two-point plurality in favor of better off back in October of 2024. [8:05] That is a 50-point, a near 50-point switcheroo to the worse off side among independents who ultimately decide elections in this country. [8:13] And that's why I said if you're a Republican member of Congress, you want to run. [8:16] But there's truthfully no place to hide. [8:17] No place to hide. [8:18] All right. [8:18] You love a little history. [8:19] I love a little history. [8:20] Put this in some historical perspective. [8:24] It's easy for me to say on a Monday morning. [8:26] Harry, you do the talking now. [8:27] I will do all the talking. [8:28] That has never been an issue for me. [8:30] Look, that's exactly right, Sarah Seidner. [8:33] Exactly right. [8:34] My eighth-grade history teacher, Thomas Gatch, loved me in history, although sometimes I was a little too talkative in class. [8:40] Shocking. [8:40] I know. [8:40] Shocking. [8:42] 21st century economic net approval rating at this point in term two independents. [8:46] Trump is historic at this point. [8:47] Look at this. [8:48] 48 points underwater. [8:50] Double as bad as Obama was. [8:51] Double digits worse than George W. Bush was at this point. [8:54] I was even looking back to the 80s. [8:56] He's worse than Ronald Reagan. [8:57] Any president will last. [8:58] 50 years in terms of his economic net approval rating among independents at this point in a second term. [9:03] Again, you can run, but the truth is there's no place to hide if you're a Republican running for re-election. [9:09] Dems flipping seats in special elections 2025, 2026. [9:12] You know, you mentioned down here in Florida, you see the blue here. [9:15] But look at this. [9:15] It's in the Northeast as well, right? [9:17] It's New Hampshire. [9:18] It's Pennsylvania. [9:18] It's in the Midwest. [9:19] It's Iowa. [9:20] You talk about other southern states. [9:22] Georgia. [9:23] Then you go Mississippi. [9:24] Arkansas, which, of course, hasn't been won for Democrats. [9:27] And the president. [9:28] Since 1996, we've seen a seat there. [9:31] And, of course, there was that Texas state Senate district as well. [9:34] We are seeing flips across the board. [9:37] And when you tally it all up, Aaron, what are we talking about? [9:40] We are talking about if, in fact, your last guess is victorious, Democrats have flipped 12, 12 different special elections. [9:48] They have flipped seats. [9:49] And the Republicans have flipped a grand total of zero. [9:54] All right. [9:54] Now, there you go. [9:57] Next time you're on the Baker's Dozen. [9:58] Okay. [9:59] So, what does it mean for Democrats, though, in the midterm elections? [10:02] Okay. [10:02] So, this is not happening in isolation. [10:04] It's not happening in one state. [10:05] It's happening across the map. [10:07] But what are we looking at as well? [10:08] Well, let's take a look at House Democrats polling, okay, versus Kamala Harris in 2024. [10:12] How much are they outperforming her? [10:14] Well, look in the Northeast again. [10:15] In New York, they're outperforming her by eight points. [10:17] How about in Pennsylvania, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania? [10:20] Again, by eight points. [10:21] We mentioned Texas, right? [10:22] Howard, House Democrats, the U.S. House outperforming Kamala Harris. [10:26] 14 points. [10:26] And then even in California, which is, of course, [10:29] a deep blue state, even there, they're outperforming Kamala Harris by six points. [10:33] And, of course... [10:33] Deep blue and her state. [10:34] Right. [10:35] Exactly right. [10:36] And they're outperforming her there by six points. [10:38] And, of course, they have that redistricting that is going to be occurring because they [10:41] passed that ballot measure. [10:43] And so, I think that Democrats will really be able to extend their games in deep blue [10:47] states, red states, and a key swing state in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania as well. [10:51] All right. [10:52] So, tell me something else I don't know. [10:53] Okay. [10:53] I will tell you something else you don't know. [10:55] What are some elections that we're looking forward to in the next month? [10:58] Okay. [10:59] How about Wisconsin Supreme Court? [11:01] Liberals there. [11:01] Democrats there hoping to flip a seat there. [11:03] They, of course, have gained control. [11:04] That's oftentimes a telltale sign. [11:06] There's that Georgia 14th District. [11:08] Right. [11:08] That was, of course, Marjorie Taylor Greensee. [11:11] Marjorie Taylor Greensee. [11:11] How close can Democrats come there? [11:13] They outperformed in the primary. [11:14] Can they do so in the general? [11:16] And then in New Jersey 11th, Mikey Sherrill's district. [11:18] A very liberal Democrat won that primary. [11:20] But let's see if she can win there and even extend upon Kamala Harris's advantage in that [11:25] district. [11:26] If they are, that tells you that it doesn't matter. [11:28] Liberal, moderate. [11:28] If they're a conservative, Democrats are looking good towards November. [11:31] How delicious for Democrats this morning. [11:35] My goodness gracious. [11:36] They're waking up. [11:37] Maybe they're going to get brunch at Mar-a-Lago and say, yummy, yummy, because this result [11:42] will make their stomachs feel quite good indeed. [11:45] Florida's 87th House District election margin. [11:48] Sarah is laughing over there. [11:49] Look at this. [11:50] In 2024, Donald Trump won it by 11 points. [11:53] Look at this swing all the way to the left. [11:56] We got Gregory the Democrat winning it by two. [11:59] Two points in this State House special election. [12:01] I will also note that they flipped a state Senate district as well further north in the [12:05] state. [12:06] So double fun for Democrats in a state that they have been struggling with. [12:10] Democrats have lost so much power in Florida over the last decade, and then they're able [12:15] to win in Donald Trump's backyard. [12:19] Democrats are absolutely loving it this morning. [12:22] I'm laughing because you said that they were going to have brunch at Mar-a-Lago. [12:25] Yummy, yummy. [12:26] Really? [12:26] Really? [12:27] Is that what's going to happen? [12:28] Food is always good. [12:28] That's on my mind because I intermittent fast. [12:30] Clearly. [12:31] All right. [12:31] How does this fit what we've seen nationwide so far? [12:34] Yeah, OK. [12:35] And it follows a trend, right? [12:36] Yeah, it absolutely follows a trend. [12:37] Look, what is happening around Mar-a-Lago is not just staying at Mar-a-Lago. [12:43] It's expanding out. [12:44] I mentioned that other district of the state Senate district. [12:46] They flipped last night in Florida, but it's not just there. [12:49] It's nationwide as well. [12:50] Take a look here. [12:51] OK, the average 2025-2026 special election so far. [12:55] Democrats are doing, get this, 12 points. [12:59] Better. [13:00] Up like a rocket versus Kamala Harris's baseline in 2024. [13:04] This 12 points, very similar to this 13-point swing that we saw right in Florida, [13:10] right around Mar-a-Lago in the 87th district. [13:12] And I will note, I was counting it up. [13:14] I believe that is about a dozen different special elections in which we have seen a flip [13:20] from Republican control to Democrat control. [13:23] So what is happening and happened last night in Florida is really emblematic [13:28] of what we have seen nationwide so far, which is Democrats very much [13:32] outrunning the baseline from 2024. [13:35] All right. [13:37] How does this look for the midterms? [13:39] Because you can't absolutely predict it, but boy, you're starting to get some real signs. [13:44] We are getting some really big signs. [13:46] Look, part of the reason we look at this is not just because I love elections, [13:50] which I absolutely do. [13:51] I mean, there was a reason why I wrote in my high school paper about elections, [13:54] why I watch old election night videos as well. [13:56] It is because they mean so much. [13:58] They mean so much for power come November. [14:00] Look back through the history books. [14:02] Look back since I was in high school. [14:04] Look, look at the special elections and midterm results. [14:07] When a party outperforms a midterm, special elections in midterm cycles since 2005, [14:12] look at this, five out of five times that same party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives. [14:17] The fact that Democrats are outperforming not just around Mar-a-Lago but nationwide as well [14:22] is a very telling sign for the future. [14:25] Look, sometimes history isn't always prologue, [14:28] but in this particular case, based upon everything we're seeing, [14:30] I'm betting it is what happened last night in Florida probably is emblematic of a larger sign [14:35] that Democrats are very much likely heading towards getting back the U.S. House of Representatives. [14:39] You know what we learned also today is that your dream has come true. [14:43] From high school to now, you're now working elections. [14:45] You're involved. [14:47] Let me just tell you this. [14:48] If you had told me a decade or two decades ago I'd be right here, [14:52] my dear friend Sarah Seidner, I would have taken it every single time. [14:56] Dream catcher. [14:57] Dream catcher. [14:58] Come on, Harry. [14:59] In terms of how the president is doing overall right now, [15:02] according to the public, what does the public say, Harry? [15:04] What is the public saying? [15:06] There is no floor for Donald Trump. [15:09] The floor beneath him keeps collapsing and he falls down to a new record low. [15:14] And we can see it right here. [15:15] Look at this. [15:15] Trump's net approval march. [15:17] All two-term pollster lows. [15:19] Quinnipiac, the best of the bunch, 20 points underwater. [15:22] Yahoo! YouGov, 21 points below underwater. [15:24] Verisite, 23 points below underwater. [15:26] And the new Reuters. [15:28] Those poll, 26 points underwater. [15:32] All of these are term two record lows. [15:35] Donald Trump continues to fall. [15:37] And in the aggregate of polls, he is also at a term two low. [15:43] There is no floor in sight, at least a floor that is stable [15:47] as he keeps collapsing through the floors that we thought he had. [15:51] It's a lot of floors. [15:53] It's a lot of floors. [15:53] All right, so Harry, talk to me about, so this is what we're seeing in March. [15:56] It doesn't look good. [15:56] But what is driving this? [15:59] What is driving this drop? [16:00] Okay, yeah, it don't look good, Erika Hill. [16:02] But what is driving it? [16:04] You spoke about the Iran war in the intro. [16:06] How about foreign policy approval rating trend? [16:08] Look at this. [16:09] Hits a term two low, according to Reuters' Ipsos. [16:11] He was plus two at the beginning of his second term. [16:15] Hello, down he goes. [16:17] He's now at negative 27 points, a 30, near 30-point drop [16:22] when it comes to foreign policy. [16:23] Among independents, just 22% of independents approve of the job [16:28] that Donald Trump is doing. [16:29] That is no bueno, no good. [16:32] How about the economy? [16:33] Look, this is what we've been talking about. [16:35] This is the reason Donald Trump got elected to his second term, [16:38] and he continues to fall. [16:39] Look at this, another term too low. [16:41] He was at plus six points in January of 2025, [16:44] and that approval, nearly a 40-point drop to negative 33 points. [16:49] And on the cost of living, he is now 41 points below water. [16:55] That, simply put, does not work for Donald Trump, [16:57] and we're gonna get to it. [16:59] But in the next slide, who else it might not work for? [17:02] May it perhaps not work for Republicans in the midterms, Harry? [17:04] Yes, if we look at the Kaoshi prediction markets, [17:08] what do we see? [17:09] Look at this, the chance that the GOP wins under 193 seats [17:13] in the 2026 midterm elections, House seats, [17:16] that chance was 8% five months ago. [17:18] Look at that now, up like a rocket, [17:20] a 42% chance that the GOP gets absolutely blown out, [17:25] and it will be in large part [17:26] because Donald Trump is just so freaking unpopular. [17:29] Yikes. [17:29] But it is still March. [17:31] It's still March. [17:31] Long way to November. [17:32] A long way, each day is long, Erica. [17:35] I know, but it keeps you very busy, [17:36] and it keeps you employed, so that's a win, yeah. [17:38] There are some government shutdowns, [17:40] partial government shutdowns, [17:41] where a lot of folks who are not affected by him directly [17:45] don't really notice him. [17:46] That is not the case in this situation. [17:48] Just take a look at the Google searches for the TSA, [17:51] up 1,000%, up like a rocket from March 1st. [17:55] That is by far an all-time high for the number of folks [17:59] who were searching for the TSA. [18:01] This is a government, partial government shutdown [18:04] that can't hide from the American people. [18:06] They're really noticing it. [18:06] That is a lot. [18:07] And look, it's spring break as well, [18:09] so a lot of people were either looking to travel [18:11] or planning on traveling or were traveling, so there's that. [18:14] How does each party feel about whether their side [18:17] should stick to their guns [18:18] and continue to let this shutdown happen? [18:21] Yeah, I think this is the key political question, right? [18:23] Because you see this up 1,000%, people are noticing. [18:26] And what you see in the polling right now is it was the Democrats [18:29] who said their party should, in fact, stick to their guns, [18:33] say it was worth a shutdown, a partial government shutdown [18:36] over the funding of ICE and the GHS. [18:37] We're talking about 55% here, Dems on congressional debt. [18:40] Just 29% of Republicans said that their side, [18:44] congressional Republicans, [18:45] should, in fact, stick to their guns. [18:46] It was worth the government shutdown. [18:48] So we're dealing with these long lines. [18:49] You see the Democrats saying, you know what, it is worth it, [18:52] but the Republicans saying, you know what, not really, [18:54] and that's why they're coming to the table at this point. [18:56] Yeah, it looks like there could be a deal in place, [18:59] hopefully soon. [19:01] Just how many of Trump's second term [19:03] has had at least one shutdown as far as by president? [19:08] Yeah, okay, and I'm going to do two slides at once here, [19:11] Sarah, so I'm going to switch the script [19:12] because I'm getting the time cues in my ear here. [19:14] Oh, my goodness gracious. [19:15] Okay, look at this. [19:16] Percentage of the term that the government has shut down, [19:18] look at this, 20%, 20% of Trump's second term, [19:23] there has at least been a partial government shutdown. [19:24] That is 40 times the average of all the other presidents, [19:28] just 0.5%. [19:29] There's been so much time wasted [19:31] on these different government shutdowns. [19:34] No wonder Republicans want to get to the table. [19:35] Actually, you know, pass legislation, [19:37] but I will note that there is optimism going on here. [19:40] Chance that this shutdown goes past next Tuesday at 10 a.m., [19:43] according to the couch prediction markets. [19:44] Yesterday, we were near a 90% chance. [19:46] Now, with the news coming out, only about half that. [19:49] Look at that, 49% chance. [19:51] How are working-class Americans feeling [19:54] about the job that Donald Trump is doing? [19:56] We've got our data chief here, Harry. [19:59] Hi, Anton, joining us. [20:01] How are people feeling who are making 50K or under, [20:06] which is considered, you know, from statistics, [20:09] the working class in America? [20:10] You know, the working class, those making 50K or less, [20:13] those making under 50K, were a big swing vote, [20:16] were a big swing vote in the 2024 election. [20:20] Trump was able to win them. [20:21] That was a very important part of his coalition. [20:24] But look at this now. [20:25] Look at the net approval rating that he has [20:28] with those making under 50K. [20:29] Down it goes. Look at that. [20:31] That's a 26-point switcheroo in the latest average of polls. [20:36] Look at that, minus 24 points. [20:38] The working-class voters are abandoning Donald Trump. [20:41] Those who helped put him over the top in 2024 are saying, [20:45] you know what, not for me right now. [20:48] Look, the two big issues were the economy and immigration. [20:51] Those poll after poll showed us that you would bring us, [20:54] that that's what people cared about, [20:55] whether they were working-class or not. [20:57] So what is it this time that has really [21:00] made people sour? [21:01] You know, it's, to quote James Carville, [21:03] it's the economy, stupid, or the economy's smarty [21:06] when I'm talking with you, Sarah Sy. [21:07] Nice try, Harry. [21:08] I try. You know, I'm trying to suck at it, you know. [21:11] But look, if you look at those who, again, [21:13] making under 50K, who they trusted more on the economy [21:16] back during the 2024 election, what you see, [21:18] you see that they trusted Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. [21:21] Look at that, by a five-point margin. [21:23] And then they have completely, completely shifted away [21:27] from the president of the United States. [21:30] He is way underwater. [21:31] We're talking well more than a 20-point shift [21:34] away from the president of the United States. [21:36] His net approval rating with them right now [21:38] is absolutely atrocious when it comes to the economy. [21:42] They have seen what has happened. [21:44] They have seen what has happened on tariffs. [21:45] They have seen what has happened with the war. [21:47] They have seen the gas prices go up. [21:49] And you just say to yourself, [21:51] if you're a voter making under 50K, [21:53] you know what, the economy, it is not where we want it to be. [21:56] And therefore, we are turning against Trump on the economy, [21:58] and we are turning against Trump on the economy. [22:00] And therefore, we are turning against Trump on the economy, [22:02] and we are turning against him overall as well. [22:04] He made some promises to get this fixed quickly, [22:06] and people are still very much hurting things, [22:08] still very expensive. [22:10] Give us some sense of how this might impact Congress for 2026, [22:12] which is quickly, the midterms are quickly approaching. [22:14] Okay, so this is what's so important here, right? [22:16] Something could be happening to Donald Trump, [22:18] but it's not necessarily going to impact the race for Congress. [22:20] That's not the case here. [22:22] That is not the case here. [22:24] I mean, just take a look at the choice for Congress [22:26] for those who are making under 50K. [22:28] Look at this. In 2024, they went with the GOP [22:30] on average, and they went for Donald Trump, right? [22:32] A two-point win for Republicans [22:34] amongst those making under 50K. [22:36] But now they are favoring Democrats [22:38] by 12 points on average. [22:40] This, to me, looks a lot more like 2018, [22:42] when Democrats were able to win back [22:44] the U.S. House of Representatives [22:46] than it looks like 2024, [22:48] when, of course, Republicans were able [22:50] to hold onto their House majority [22:52] and win the presidency. [22:54] 2018, the good times may be coming back for Democrats, [22:56] at least with those making under 50K. [22:58] Look, the tariffs certainly have had an impact [23:00] on the U.S. in particular, [23:02] because the less money you have [23:04] and the more expensive things are, [23:06] you know, it makes things tighter and tighter. [23:08] So the question is, is there any chance [23:10] that the Americans suffering through this [23:12] are going to get some kind of stimulus check [23:14] from tariffs? [23:16] That ain't going to happen. [23:18] There was a promise about 2,000 bucks or whatever. [23:20] There was a promise. [23:22] Some Democrats are actually trying to revive it [23:24] in Congress, but at this point, [23:26] you look at the cash prediction market, [23:28] there is just a very low chance [23:30] that that chance has been declining [23:32] over the last few months, obviously, [23:34] as you got that Supreme Court ruling [23:36] coming in on tariffs. [23:38] And so at this point, what you're looking at [23:40] is well less than a 50% chance that they get [23:42] those tariff checks by 2027. [23:44] So, you know, at the end of the day, [23:46] what we're seeing is those working-class voters [23:48] have turned against the president [23:50] of the United States. [23:52] They were a key swing vote in 2024, [23:54] and at this point, that swing vote [23:56] is swinging towards the Democrats, [23:58] and it may swing them back into a majority [24:00] and maybe the Senate as well. [24:02] A lot of warning signs there, Harry Enten. [24:04] Thank you so much. [24:06] To get to know Mark Zuckerberg, [24:08] if you're the American public, [24:10] is to get to hate him. [24:12] What are we talking about here? [24:14] I mean, just take a look here. [24:16] Mark Zuckerberg's net favorability. [24:18] In 2016, he was positively viewed, [24:20] two thumbs up, plus 17 points. [24:22] Down he goes. [24:24] Look at this in 2025, negative 42 points, [24:26] a nearly 60-point shift [24:28] against Mark Zuckerberg [24:30] and more and more part [24:32] of the American mainstream. [24:34] Americans have very much turned [24:36] against the guy from Harvard. [24:38] Yeah, I mean, when you start talking about [24:40] mainstream media, people say, [24:42] oh, I have mainstream media. [24:44] This is it. This is now part of it. [24:46] Social media is now part of it. [24:48] What about parties? [24:50] How do the parties see him, [24:52] and does that differ between Democrats, [24:54] Republicans, and dependents? [24:56] It does differ, but I will point out [24:58] things that Republicans like, Democrats dislike. [25:00] But on Mark Zuckerberg, [25:02] he has brought the people together, [25:04] united against him. [25:06] Take a look. Okay. [25:08] Net favorability by party. [25:10] With Democrats, he's 59 points underwater. [25:12] Absolutely hated. [25:14] But even among Republicans, [25:16] he's 26 points underwater. [25:18] Very rarely do you get Democrats and Republicans [25:20] coming together on something, [25:22] but they have absolutely come against [25:24] the tech CEO, which might be why [25:26] he looks kind of sad here. [25:28] He has done absolutely nothing [25:30] to regulate social media. [25:32] So they can be mad, but they're not doing anything about it. [25:34] What about Americans? [25:36] How do they think about social media [25:38] when it comes to their children? [25:40] Yeah, okay, so part of this, right, [25:42] is the impact that social media has had [25:44] on the young people. [25:46] What they want, the American people want, [25:48] is a ban. Take a look here. [25:50] Okay, one under age 16 social media ban. [25:52] Among all voters, it's 61%. [25:54] But again, look at this unification [25:56] that we have across the political aisle. [25:58] Of Republicans, Independents, [26:00] and Democrats to agree. [26:02] 65% of Republicans, two thirds there. [26:04] 62% of Independents. [26:06] You get three and five there, [26:08] and you get about three and five Democrats [26:10] over here, 58%. [26:12] Very rarely do you see such small splits here, [26:14] Sarah Seidner. This is huge. [26:16] This is very clear that Democrats, [26:18] Republicans, Independents, [26:20] all the American public want to ensure [26:22] that kids are safe on social media, [26:24] and that's why they want [26:26] a social media ban on social media. [26:28] So what are the chances [26:30] that this might happen? [26:32] Because again, you can distrust [26:34] and be upset and say we want this, [26:36] but Congress has to do something and listen. [26:38] Yeah, okay, so you see all these numbers. [26:40] You see this unification [26:42] across the political aisle. [26:44] But look at the calcium prediction market. [26:46] The chance that we actually get a social media ban [26:48] for kids in 2026? [26:50] Just 8%. Just 8%. [26:52] So what we're talking about at this point [26:54] is a public that's unified, and a Congress [26:56] will see if they change their minds [26:58] looking at the numbers. [27:00] We'll see if there are a lot of angry parents, [27:02] angry Americans who call up their people in Congress [27:04] because at this point it doesn't seem likely [27:06] despite very clear numbers across the aisle [27:08] in which folks want a social media ban [27:10] and very much are united against tech CEOs. [27:12] Mark Zuckerberg's not the only one [27:14] who has very unpopular ratings [27:16] of those who run a social media company. [27:18] Okay, I've got your next segment [27:20] because I want to know what kids 16 and under [27:22] think about a ban. I would like to know what they think. [27:24] If I know kids at all, [27:26] I'll get one. We like to rebel a little bit.