25 minutes of Harry Enten running this week's numbers

[0:00] So where does public opinion stand on the war with Iran? [0:05] How much has it hurt the president? [0:07] With us now, CNN chief data analyst, Harry. [0:10] Hey, I snuck right in here. [0:12] So look, there's this notion, and you see articles about it all the time, [0:16] that the president is leaking because of the war with Iran. [0:21] What evidence is there? [0:22] Yeah, I think this is so important because in the polling, [0:25] you may see the president leaking support. [0:27] But I think for me, the question is, as we head towards midterm elections, [0:31] has there been any real impact on those congressional Republicans [0:34] who are running for re-election this term? [0:37] And you know what? Take a look at the generic ballot. [0:39] The shift in it, zero, zero, zero, zero, zero. [0:43] Democrats had a small lead heading into the war. [0:45] They continue to have a small lead that would likely win them the House, [0:49] but not one that would be consistent with them winning the Senate. [0:53] So despite the war going on for well more than a month now, [0:56] there has been zero, zero, zero shift. [0:59] This is a reality check for those who are saying [1:01] the war has massively changed the political landscape going into the midterm. [1:04] So how much has it moved? [1:05] It's moved zero, zero, zero, zero, zero. [1:09] Okay, so broaden out a little bit if you're talking about maybe [1:12] support for one party or another on foreign policy. [1:15] Yeah, okay. [1:15] So what's one of the reasons why we've seen this zero point shift? [1:18] Just take a look here. [1:19] Okay, party trusted more on foreign policy. [1:22] In late February, it was Dems, but within the margin of error by four points. [1:25] What's actually happened by late March, that number actually shifted by one point, [1:30] which is within the margin of error, but it actually made the Democrats' lead [1:33] on foreign policy trust go down a point to three points. [1:36] So again, what we're seeing here is this war has simply put, [1:39] when it comes to the parties at large, coming to congressional Republicans, [1:43] it just simply put has not changed the political landscape at all. [1:49] How much do voters say they care about the war? [1:51] Yeah, okay. [1:52] So you see this little shift. [1:53] You see the fact that the generic ballot shifted zero, zero, zero, zero, zero. [1:57] You ask yourself, okay, why might that be? [2:00] Well, how about this? [2:01] Say they care a great deal or quite a bit about the Iranian situation. [2:05] In early March, it was 45%. [2:07] Now, gets this. [2:09] Again, it's just a shift of a point. [2:10] It's within the margin of error, but actually shifted down by one point to 44%. [2:14] So the majority of Americans do not, in fact, say they care quite a deal or a great deal [2:21] or quite a bit about the Iranian situation. [2:23] Look, this may be impacting the president somewhat, [2:26] but in terms of congressional Republicans, in terms of changing the landscape, [2:29] heading into the midterm elections, look, Johnny, as I like to say, [2:32] and Jimmy Carver like to say, it's about the economy. [2:35] But when I'm with this guy, it's smarty pants. [2:38] But the interesting thing here, and one way to look at this, [2:40] is that any focus on Iran is not focused on the economy. [2:43] Correct. [2:44] So it may be that these numbers aren't moving, [2:46] but the economic numbers, which really do matter, do perhaps shift on the margins. [2:51] The gas prices, inflation, that's the name of the game. [2:55] Those numbers shift. [2:56] That's bad for Republicans if they go in a southern direction. [2:59] If they go in a northern direction, in terms of people being more satisfied, [3:03] then that, in fact, would be a real game shift. [3:05] Thank you very much. [3:06] Thank you, Johnny. [3:07] With us now, CNN chief data analyst, Harry Enton. [3:10] And one of the places where we can see this most clearly is in Michigan, [3:15] where there is an open Senate seat and a very competitive Democratic primary. [3:21] What are we seeing in that primary right now in terms of the predictions? [3:25] Yeah, OK. [3:25] You know, what we're seeing here right now is that the most anti-Israel Democratic candidate, [3:31] potential nominee, is gaining ground over the last month. [3:34] Just take a look here. [3:35] Chance to be the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee, [3:38] according to the Coucher Prediction Markets. [3:39] If you look right here, McMorrah, who's kind of the Goldilocks in here, [3:43] in terms of the pro or anti-Israel candidate. [3:46] Stevens mostly being seen as the most pro-Israel candidate. [3:49] She's down there at 20% a month ago. [3:50] McMorrah was at 61%. [3:51] Look what's happened over the last month. [3:53] McMorrah has fallen at 49%. [3:55] Abdul Asayyad, look at this, from 23%, who is seen as the most anti-Israel candidate, [4:00] up to 39%. [4:02] Now, this is a legitimate race here, folks. [4:05] This is a legitimate race. [4:06] And Abdul Asayyad, who I think at the start of this campaign, [4:09] a lot of folks weren't quite sure if he would have the muscle to go all the way, [4:13] at this point is a true competitor. [4:15] With McMorrah ahead, at least according to the Coucher Prediction Markets, [4:18] but below 50%. [4:19] And Asayyad really closing over the last month as this Iran war has worn on. [4:23] As we said, this is a Democratic primary. [4:25] How might this be emblematic of Democratic positions on Israel writ large? [4:30] Okay, so you see Al-Sayed going up, and there's all this discussion. [4:33] Oh, there's this divide on Israel within the Democratic Party. [4:37] I'd make the argument there was a divide four years ago. [4:40] I'm not quite sure there's a divide anymore, because just take a look here. [4:43] Okay, Democrats' net favorability of Israel. [4:45] Not liberal, those who are moderate conservative versus those who are liberal. [4:48] You go back to 2022, those who are not liberal, [4:51] slightly more likely to hold a net favorable view of Israel than not liberals [4:55] were against Israel by that point, minus 26 points. [4:58] Come on over to this side of the screen. [4:59] That divide is simply put, gone. [5:02] There is no divide within the Democratic Party when it comes to views towards Israel. [5:06] The net favorable rating amongst those who are moderate conservative, not liberal. [5:09] Look at this, minus 55 points. [5:12] That's a shift of 58 points in just four years' time. [5:15] Those who are liberal, it's nearly a 50-point shift. [5:18] It's minus 74 points. [5:19] But now moderates and conservatives, as well as liberals, [5:22] those within the Democratic electorate, are united on their views towards Israel. [5:27] It is unfavorable at this point. [5:29] Does age factor into this? [5:30] Does age factor into it? [5:31] Okay, age was another divide that we saw. [5:34] But that age divide is breaking down. [5:35] Look at this, Democrats' net favorability towards Israel. [5:38] Age 50 plus back in 2022 was plus 10 points. [5:41] Those under the age of 50, age 18 of 49, minus 25 points. [5:45] Come over to this side of the screen. [5:46] Again, these are just dramatic, dramatic shifts. [5:50] Look at this. [5:50] Age 50 plus now, minus 54 points. [5:54] That's a shift of what, Johnny B? [5:56] That's a shift of 64 points. [5:57] 64 points. [5:58] 64 points in the negative direction. [6:00] Age, under age 50, it's a shift. [6:03] And normally this would be a huge shift, but it's 45 points as compared to what? [6:06] 64 points. [6:07] But the bottom line is this. [6:08] The age divide that there was on Israel within the Democratic Party, that is gone. [6:13] Again, basically uniformly negative views towards Israel among Democrats. [6:19] And that, in my mind, is playing out in Michigan right now as El Sayed's chances are going up. [6:23] Major, major shifts. [6:24] Harriet, and thank you very much. [6:25] Thank you, my friend. [6:26] There's a lot of breaking news this morning. [6:28] There's a new poll from Quinnipiac that shows the president's approval rating at 38%, which is low. [6:34] And there have been other polls that show this same number, maybe even a little lower. [6:37] But there have been other polls that show his underlying numbers are even worse. [6:41] He's hemorrhaging support among independents, hemorrhaging support on some key issues like taxes and immigration and other things. [6:47] So one question that I've asked our chief data analyst, Harry Enten, is, as bad as this number is, what's keeping it fairly stable at this number? [6:56] Why hasn't it dropped even more? [6:59] Harry? [7:00] I'll answer your question, Mr. Berman. [7:01] And that is because President Trump is more than holding his own amongst a very large portion of the electorate, a very reliable voting bloc. [7:09] And that is senior citizens. [7:11] Take a look here. [7:12] Okay, Trump's approval rating age 65 plus. [7:14] In March of 2025, 46%. [7:17] Look at where it is now. [7:18] It's basically the same. [7:20] Seniors have not moved. [7:22] He's at 44% now. [7:24] And the key nugget here is for all this talk about young people in the electorate, such as myself, or at least I like to include myself in that bloc, [7:31] it turns out that older voters, senior citizens, vote in far larger numbers. [7:37] So Republicans look at this number and they say, hey, you know what? [7:40] We can actually potentially do some real damage or at least hold our own in the midterms [7:45] because President Trump is holding his own with this very important voting bloc. [7:49] So how does that number 44% compare historically to other presidents? [7:52] Okay, this is where it gets even more interesting. [7:54] It turns out if you look at all the 21st century second term presidents and you look at senior citizens, [8:00] Trump actually has the best approval rating at this point in the second term of all of them. [8:04] Donald Trump at 44%. [8:06] Obama was under 40% at 39%. [8:08] George W. Bush was way down there at 34%. [8:11] So Donald Trump is beating other presidents this century at this point in their second term, beating all of them. [8:18] And therefore, as I said, holding his own amongst a very key voting bloc. [8:22] The President of the United States and the White House should like this number, [8:25] especially compared to Obama, who Trump, of course, always likes to beat. [8:27] And this was George W. Bush after he started talking about reforming Social Security. [8:31] That's a bad idea. [8:32] Among seniors, it certainly is, the so-called third rail of politics. [8:35] All right, talk to me how his number may have moved a little bit, President Trump's, and what that might mean. [8:41] Okay, so, you know, we spoke about the midterm election. [8:43] So, you know, oftentimes I ask myself, okay, you know, the President isn't obviously up for election this November, [8:49] but Republicans in the House are. [8:51] And so I think just making this comparison, right, you know, we've seen a lot of folks saying, [8:55] oh, Republicans doom when it comes to midterm elections. [8:58] But just take a look at this, choice for election among age 65 plus. [9:01] Back in November of 2024, Trump won that group by one point. [9:04] We've seen some movement, but really not that much movement. [9:08] Democrats ahead by three in the race for Congress. [9:10] And as John and I were talking about, this could cost Republicans the House. [9:14] But a number like this suggests to me that Republicans very, very well and are likely to hold the Senate. [9:20] This is what we've seen in the polling data when we look nationally. [9:22] We see that the movement, simply put, isn't there. [9:25] And when you get the most reliable voting bloc, basically Republicans holding their own with maybe some slight movement of Democrats. [9:31] These are the types of numbers that I think Republicans have to be pleased with. [9:34] I will say, though, even this slight movement, probably enough at this stage to think. [9:38] For the House, but not for the Senate. [9:40] All right, we're talking about the Senate here. [9:41] There is a Senate race in a state that I'm told has a fair number of seniors. [9:44] That's Florida. [9:45] Republican Ashley Moody up for reelection there. [9:48] What are the prediction markets saying about our chances? [9:49] Yeah, I think there are a lot of people in New York City who may have some older relatives who live down on the Gold Coast in southeast Florida. [9:55] You think of the villages as well. [9:57] And take a look here. [9:58] Chance that the Republicans wins, that Republicans hold on in the 2026 Florida Senate race. [10:03] Look at this. [10:04] An 83 percent chance. [10:05] So the bottom line is this. [10:07] Florida, a state with a lot of seniors. [10:08] Looks like Republicans are holding their own there. [10:10] Not a big surprise, as we've seen nationally. [10:12] Republicans holding their own with seniors. [10:14] Donald Trump holding his own with seniors. [10:15] And that's a key reason why the bottom hasn't fallen out and Republicans have a fighting chance heading into this midterm election. [10:21] Harold, thank you very much. [10:22] I appreciate it. [10:23] Thank you. [10:24] Tonight, a Republican saying the quiet part out loud. [10:27] Senator Tommy Tuberville, all but admitting that Republicans don't deserve to stay in control of the Senate. [10:34] Everything that goes on up here, Benny, is about, oh, we've got to get reelected. [10:38] We've got to keep the majority. [10:39] Well, hell, we haven't done anything in the majority. [10:40] Why should we keep the majority? [10:45] I mean, he asked the question, why should we keep the majority? [10:47] What the hell have we done with it? [10:48] Well, it comes after the president said this about his party's chances in the midterms. [10:55] When somebody gets elected president, that party always loses the midterms. [11:00] I don't know why. [11:01] I don't know why. [11:01] Nobody could explain it. [11:03] Well, Tommy Tuberville had an explanation in part. [11:07] But, okay, Harry Enten is here to tell us something we don't know. [11:11] So, Harry, you heard Tommy Tuberville. [11:13] That was a very honest assessment. [11:15] That's what he thinks. [11:16] He said, what the heck of hell have we done? [11:18] And so we don't deserve it. [11:21] Okay, if he's going to say that openly, how bad is it? [11:26] I mean, it's bad. [11:27] It's like a nightmare for the Republicans. [11:29] The Democrats just keep gaining and gaining and gaining when it comes to the Senate odds. [11:33] And you can see it really well in the Calci prediction market. [11:35] I mean, just take a look at the chance that Democrats win control. [11:38] You know, at the beginning of the year, it was only a bottom one and three shot. [11:40] But now look at this. [11:41] Democrats haven't just gained on Republicans. [11:43] They actually have the majority chance at 54%. [11:47] And that's fairly close to a toss-up. [11:49] But the bottom line is this. [11:50] We all thought that the House was going to go to the Democrats, but the Senate as well? [11:54] Oh, boy. [11:55] My goodness gracious. [11:56] Yeah. [11:56] I mean, well, at first that was sort of, well, no way. [11:58] No way. [11:59] No way. [11:59] No way. [11:59] No way. [11:59] Now you point out what a shift. [12:02] Okay. [12:02] So because of what? [12:04] What are the key races that have driven that shift from one and three to the majority chance? [12:08] Yeah. [12:08] Take a look at the Cook Political Report, which just came out this week, and they shifted four [12:12] key races closer to Democrats taking them. [12:15] What are we talking about here? [12:16] Well, we can talk about Georgia going from a toss-up to lean Democrat. [12:20] How about North Carolina? [12:21] This would be a Democratic pickup from toss-up to lean Democrat. [12:24] How about Ohio? [12:25] A state that Donald Trump won by double digits from lean GOP to toss-up with the likely Democratic [12:30] nominee Sherrod Brown, the former senator. [12:31] And then Nebraska, Nebraska hasn't elected a Democratic or a non-Republican senator since [12:36] 2006, but it went from solid Republican to likely Republican. [12:40] Democrats are gaining in many different seats across the political map, putting new states [12:44] into play. [12:45] And that's the reason why at this point they actually have a 54% chance of taking over [12:49] the United States Senate. [12:50] Which is fascinating. [12:51] And, you know, I'm thinking about Ohio and what a red state it had become that you're [12:55] now saying that's a toss-up. [12:56] Okay. [12:57] So tell us something else. [13:00] I don't know. [13:00] I'll tell you something else that you don't know. [13:02] You look at Ohio, right? [13:03] You think of the working class, right? [13:05] You think of those who perhaps have incomes less than $50,000. [13:10] Look at how much they have turned against the President of the United States. [13:14] Look at this. [13:15] His approval rating at the beginning of his second term was plus two points. [13:18] Down he goes into the smithereens. [13:20] Now at negative 34 points on his net popularity rate, that's an over 35-point shift and only [13:27] about a year plus a few months' time. [13:29] No wonder all these states are in play. [13:31] And stunning. [13:32] All right. [13:32] Thank you very much. [13:33] Thank you. [13:34] Harry Enten. [13:34] It is April 15th. [13:35] It's tax day. [13:36] If you haven't filed your taxes, I don't know what you're waiting for. [13:40] But look, today is the first tax day where the President's big tax and spending cut bill [13:46] kicks in and people can receive the benefits, theoretically, of them. [13:51] So how do they feel about it? [13:55] With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. [13:58] All kinds of administration officials fanning out, touting the big, beautiful bill as it's [14:04] called today. [14:05] How is it working? [14:06] Ain't working too good because Trump is paying the piper when it comes to taxes and the American [14:11] public. [14:11] Look at this trend. [14:13] I mean, again, what massive trends we're seeing from term one to term two. [14:18] Trump's not approving at this point on taxes. [14:20] And term number one in 2018, remember there was that tax cut that was just passed just [14:24] before tax day back in 2018. [14:26] Look at this. [14:27] He was above water at plus two points. [14:28] But down he goes, down he goes. [14:30] Look at this. [14:31] He's at minus 28 points, his net approval rating on taxes, down 30 points from term number one. [14:39] If there are benefits that the American people are liking when it comes to the one big, beautiful [14:43] bill act, they are not, in fact, giving the two thumbs up to Donald Trump when it comes [14:47] to that. [14:48] I'm reading the fine print there. [14:49] Oh, yes. [14:50] The fine print there. [14:51] I leave fine print and John's able to find it. [14:53] Among independents, he is 58 points underwater with independents when it comes to taxes. [14:59] My goodness gracious. [15:00] I'm going to circle it. [15:00] That is stunning. [15:01] Again, he says he cut your taxes and people are 58 points opposed to an independents. [15:07] Yes. [15:07] All right. [15:07] In general, this is an interesting question. [15:09] What do people say about taxes in general, whether they're fair? [15:11] Yeah, I think this may be part of the equation of what is going on here. [15:15] Take a look at this. [15:15] Say their income taxes are not fair or fair. [15:18] Back in 2018, again, at this point in Trump's term number one, 61% of Americans said fair. [15:24] There was a big upswing that said fair coming off of Obama to Trump. [15:27] Trump got that benefit. [15:28] But look right now in term number two. [15:30] Look at this. [15:31] It's a flip-flop. [15:32] Now, the plurality, 49% say the taxes that they pay are not fair. [15:36] That has risen 13 points from this point in Trump's term number one. [15:39] And look at this. [15:40] The fair has plummeted down to 47%. [15:43] That is near an all-time low since 1999, who said that their taxes are fair. [15:49] And John's off there shaking because these numbers are unbelievable. [15:51] Well, because it's after President Trump pushed through this so-called big, beautiful bill, [15:55] which he says, you know, will give people these tax cuts, which they presumably would [15:58] be failing today. [15:59] So how, you know, what's approval overall of that now law? [16:02] OK, we've saved the best for last, or at least saved something good for last. [16:06] And I think this kind of puts a nice big ribbon, a nice big bow on this segment. [16:10] Take a look here. [16:11] Net approval rating of the one big, beautiful bill act. [16:14] Look at this. [16:15] The American people, they don't like it. [16:17] They don't like it. [16:18] Look at this. [16:18] 20 points underwater. [16:21] And look among independents. [16:22] Independents, the name of the game. [16:23] We have seen Trump over and over and over again struggle with independence. [16:27] And you see it right here. [16:29] Look at this. [16:30] 41 points underwater. [16:32] No wonder that Donald Trump is struggling so much when it comes to the American public [16:36] and taxes, because the one big, beautiful bill act, the big, big, beautiful bill, [16:40] everyone was talking about, everyone's talking about. [16:42] The American people, Johnny Berman, simply put, do not like it. [16:46] The signature legislative achievement, as it is now mid-April, heading into the midterm [16:50] elections, this is where it stands. [16:52] Harold Denton, thank you very much for that. [16:54] Thank you, my friend. [16:55] You say, this wall says, a key group of the president's supporters. [17:00] Which key group are we talking about? [17:01] Which key group are we talking about? [17:03] Well, it's the group that helped put him in the White House in 2016, and then again in [17:07] 2024, the group that shifted tremendously from 2012 to 2016 and put him in the White House. [17:13] We are talking about non-college white voters, and he is sliding right into the water. [17:19] This is a rut row moment, to quote the great Scooby-Doo. [17:22] Trump's net approval rating with non-college whites. [17:24] Look at this. [17:25] In February of 2025, it was plus 32 points. [17:28] Down it goes. [17:28] Look at Johnny. [17:29] Johnny is just shocked by this number, and now it is minus two points. [17:33] That is a 34-point shift, and I will note this as an average of polls. [17:37] This is not just one poll. [17:38] I've averaged three different polls here, three big pollsters, and what we see is Donald [17:43] Trump actually underwater with non-college whites who, of course, put him in the White [17:47] House. [17:48] Really moment? [17:49] Yes, really, John. [17:50] Again, I have to ask, really, because this is a 34-point swing among white voters who [17:54] didn't go to college, which again, one of his core groups here. [17:58] Why? [17:58] What issues? [17:59] Why? [18:00] I mean, let's talk about the economy. [18:02] It's the economy, Smarty, when I'm talking with Mr. Berman. [18:05] Just take a look here. [18:06] I mean, again, look at this. [18:07] On the economy, his net approval rating on non-college whites, you go back to February [18:10] 2025, he was 26 points above water. [18:13] Look at this shift. [18:15] Minus 15 points. [18:16] 15 points underwater with non-college whites. [18:20] When it comes to Donald Trump's net approval rating on the economy, that is an over 40-point [18:26] shift away from the president with a key core group of his. [18:31] Ruh-roh. [18:31] What about the war? [18:32] What about the war? [18:33] Well, the war ain't helping him, because just take a look here. [18:36] Non-college whites, net approval rating of U.S. military action against Iran, minus 5 points. [18:40] You think that's low? [18:41] Come over to this side of the screen. [18:43] How about Trump on Iran? [18:43] Minus 13 points, a very unlucky 13 indeed for the president of the United States with [18:49] a key core group of his. [18:51] It turns out he's ailing in a lot of folks with this war, not just the Pope. [18:55] So one of the ways to look at this is where might this have an impact, given that President [18:58] Trump will never be on the ballot again? [19:00] We do have midterm elections, some key Senate races here. [19:03] Let's talk about one state where there may be a lot of voters here. [19:06] Let's talk about a state that Barack Obama won in 2012, and Donald Trump has won easily [19:11] in 2016, 2020, and 2024. [19:14] How about the great Buckeye state, the state of Ohio, where, of course, Sherrod Brown is [19:18] the likely Democratic nominee? [19:20] Take a look here. [19:20] Chance that the Dems win the Ohio Senate race, according to the cash prediction market. [19:24] On John 1, it was a 37% chance. [19:26] Not too bad. [19:27] You come over to this side of the screen, up like a rocket, up to 60% chance that, in [19:32] fact, the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race, which, of course, was a state that Donald [19:36] Trump won by double digits under two years ago. [19:38] Donald Trump's chances are sliding. [19:41] The Ohio Senate race for the Democrats, they are rising. [19:44] The reason we're talking about this is it is absolutely something you hear about. [19:47] Maybe you're not paying attention to it as it passes by, but it's a big deal. [19:51] It is a huge deal. [19:52] Data centers have become a boogeyman. [19:54] And you mentioned Port Washington, Wisconsin. [19:56] That's a place that Donald Trump actually won. [19:58] And to me, data centers represent a rare bipartisan moment here in America, and that is the opposition [20:05] to them, the building opposition. [20:06] Take a look at this. [20:07] All right. [20:07] Opposed building AI data centers in their communities. [20:11] Look at this. [20:11] 65% of all adults. [20:13] Now, we occasionally see something that gets two-thirds support. [20:15] But what's rare here is look at the bipartisan support. [20:18] 78% of Democrats. [20:20] 66% of independents. [20:22] 56% of Republicans. [20:25] This is a rare instance in which you have the majority of Democrats, Republicans, and independents [20:32] actually in unison on something, and it's their opposition to data centers. [20:35] And I think this is going to be something that's not just going to stay in Port Washington, Wisconsin, [20:39] but it's going to expand out throughout the political map. [20:42] And it's going to be very interesting to see if politicians take one side or the other [20:46] side of it and are able to take advantage of what seems to be this clear backlash in [20:50] the polling data. [20:51] And they said there'd be nothing out there that could bring us together. [20:54] It turns out. [20:55] Love will keep us together as well as AI data centers, at least the opposition to them. [20:59] All right. [20:59] What do people think in general right now when they think of AI, whether it's going to help [21:03] or hurt? [21:04] Yeah. [21:04] Okay. [21:04] So you see this opposition of building AI data centers, and I think this is part of a larger, [21:08] a larger picture of this backlash against AI. [21:11] And I should note, I use AI. [21:13] Most Americans use it in some way. [21:15] Yet, despite that, say AI will do more harm than good in their day-to-day lives. [21:20] Again, look at this. [21:21] This is bipartisan. [21:22] 55% of all adults. [21:23] That's up from 44% a year ago. [21:26] 59% of Democrats. [21:28] 58% of independents. [21:29] And again, 52% of Republicans. [21:32] So again, you're getting this building backlash to AI, despite the fact that most Americans are [21:36] using their lives. [21:37] They're scared of it. [21:38] They're worried about it. [21:39] And again, this is going to be something to see very interesting going forward, whether [21:42] or not politicians say, you know what, we want some restrictions here. [21:46] I'm not sure I can think of another issue where these numbers are quite as similar. [21:49] They're so similar. [21:50] This is just very, very rare. [21:51] What about the people behind AI? [21:52] Yeah. [21:53] Okay. [21:53] So again, the other thing that I think is so notable here is those, the companies, the [21:57] people who are developing AI, people don't necessarily think that they're looking out [22:02] for their best interests. [22:03] Again, it's just 5% of all adults, 5% of Republicans, 4% of independents, 4% of Democrats. [22:10] Again, look at this unison here. [22:12] Now, I will say there's a chunk of don't know, but even here, 47% say they don't represent [22:16] their best interests. [22:17] Again, I think AI is building as an issue. [22:20] It's going to be a big part of campaigns going forward as there is this backlash, despite [22:23] the fact that so many Americans are using it. [22:25] The President, the Pope, from an approval standpoint, who's better positioned right [22:33] now in the United States among American Catholics? [22:35] You know, maybe President Trump is jealous of Pope Leo XIV because it is a blowout. [22:40] It is a blowout. [22:42] And this is just the American public at large, John. [22:44] Look at this. [22:44] It is a blow on the net popularity rating. [22:47] Pope Leo XIV at plus 34. [22:49] Look at where Donald Trump is at minus 12. [22:52] It's not even close. [22:53] It's a nearly 50-point blowout amongst the American public at large. [22:58] Pope Leo XIV absolutely crushing President Trump when it comes to how popular they are, [23:04] at least as of the last month. [23:05] And I will note that Pope Leo was the most popular person tested by NBC News. [23:11] I believe the President is making a humongous mistake going after the most popular guy in [23:15] America, at least well-known guy. [23:17] The question is, why is this man smiling here? [23:19] How about among American Catholics? [23:20] Yeah, that's right. [23:21] There's a reason why the Pope is smiling there. [23:23] How about among American Catholics? [23:25] President Trump is struggling with American Catholics. [23:28] Look at this. [23:29] Maybe this is part of the reason why he's going after the Pope. [23:31] U.S. Catholics on Trump. [23:33] You know, you go back to November of 2024. [23:35] Look at this. [23:35] President Trump crushed Kamala Harris by 20 points. [23:38] But down he goes, down he goes into the Dead Sea. [23:43] Look at this. [23:43] Minus four points. [23:45] That's a nearly 25-point switcheroo in the wrong direction. [23:48] The President has been struggling with Catholics. [23:51] And I must say, in my expert opinion, I'm not quite sure that going after the Pope is the [23:57] way to recover with Catholics. [23:58] And look, we were just listening to that interview with Kate Wright there. [24:01] And the Pope's stance on Iran is exactly what you would expect from a pontiff talking about [24:06] war and peace here. [24:08] What are Catholics in the United States? [24:10] How do they feel about the military action? [24:12] Yeah. [24:12] I mean, I think Pope Leo XIV, an American, is emblematic of Catholics here in America. [24:17] Just take a look here. [24:18] Take a look. [24:19] Net approval rating among U.S. Catholics. [24:21] U.S. military action against Iran. [24:23] Minus 10 points. [24:24] Quite negative. [24:25] You think that's low, though? [24:26] Come over to this side of the screen. [24:28] Trump on Iran. [24:28] Look at this. [24:29] They're even more sour on Trump. [24:31] 20 points underwater. [24:32] So the bottom line is this. [24:34] The Pope is emblematic of Catholics here in the United States. [24:36] The Pope is far more popular with the American public than Trump is here in the United States. [24:40] And Trump has been struggling with Catholics here in the United States, very much so, losing [24:46] a lot of ground, as you see right here, at nearly 25 points were true. [24:50] And this ain't gonna help.