23 minutes of Harry Enten running this week's numbers

[0:00] These results tell a pretty serious story in Wisconsin. Big shifts toward the Democratic [0:04] Party. Holy Toledo. Holy smokes. Holy cow. What are we talking about here? I mean, look at these [0:12] shifts. Okay, and I want to put this in terms of historical perspective for you. Dems liberal [0:16] exceeding the previous presidential vote. So in 2025-2026 cycle, we're talking about exceeding [0:22] Kamala Harris. Look at this. We're talking about exceeding Kamala Harris, the liberal [0:25] candidate did, by 21 points. 21 points. And this is part of a pattern. Right in Virginia [0:31] governor, we saw the Democrat there exceeding Kamala Harris by 10, New Jersey governor by [0:36] 8. And this is even better. Even better than what Democrats had back in the 2017-2018 cycles [0:43] where they were exceeding Hillary Clinton's baseline, but by 12, 4, and less than a point. So this [0:49] time around, oh my goodness gracious. Holy cow. Holy smokes. Holy Toledo. And of course, remember, [0:55] Democrats took the House in 2018. And I will note that Wisconsin Supreme Court performance [0:59] last night by Chris Taylor was the best for a liberal candidate in an open seat in at least, [1:04] at least 30 years. So this was the race that we saw last night in Wisconsin. A Wisconsin Supreme [1:09] Court seat, a nine-point swing there. What about Georgia in perspective? That was a special election [1:14] for Marjorie Taylor Greene's House seat. Put that in perspective. Yeah, you think a 21-point [1:18] overperformance versus the Kamala Harris baseline is impressive. That ain't got nothing on what [1:22] happened in Georgia. Look at this. Okay. Again, putting this in perspective, 2025, 2026, [1:28] U.S. House special elections. How much did the Democrats outrun Kamala Harris's baseline from 2024? [1:34] Look at this. In Georgia, 14, 25 percentage points. My goodness gracious. That beat all the [1:41] other Dem overperformances. And they've overperformed in all of them. So we're even getting higher than the [1:46] highest of heights. We're talking 13 in Tennessee, 7, 17 in Arizona, 7, 17 in Virginia, 11, 16 in Florida, [1:53] 6, 23 in Florida, 1. And all of a sudden, we're talking 25 points. The biggest Dem overperformance [1:58] in a special congressional election since 2017, when Doug Jones won that Alabama special Senate [2:05] election. Yeah, and I got to say, some of the county data in Georgia and Wisconsin that we saw [2:08] overnight, even better for Democrats in some key places they're looking for here. Harry, we've talked [2:13] about this before. I don't like to recycle old things, as you know. I like new. But this is super [2:17] important. What do special elections, what do they tell us about outcomes in midterms? Yeah, I've used [2:22] this slide before, but I'm going to recycle it because I'm going to give it extra special energy this [2:27] morning to make it brand new for you. Brand new slide. Okay, special elections and midterm results. [2:31] When a party outperforms in special elections, why are we looking at these specials? It's because five out of [2:36] five times since the 2005-2006 cycle, that party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives. [2:42] And Mr. Berman, I will note the calcium prediction markets really are taking these results and saying, [2:47] oh my goodness gracious, because look at this, chance Democrats win in 2026, both the House and [2:52] Senate. On January 1, it was 29 percent, up like a rocket now. 51 percent that Democrats don't just [2:58] win the House, but win the Senate as well. Yeah, that's the both thing right there. Having a more [3:03] than 50 percent chance to include the Senate also would be big for Democrats. Harry, thank you very much [3:08] for that. Holy smokes, folks. Given the political wins and whatnot, is six points really a big enough [3:13] lead for Democrats? Well, I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is historically [3:18] low for Democrats at this point with the Republican president. Because take a look here, and I'm taking [3:22] a look at the average of all the polls, dem generic congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle [3:28] with the Republican president. On average, their lead's actually slightly less. It's five points. [3:32] That's less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points, and way less than it was during [3:37] the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points. So yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they're only ahead by [3:44] five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on minus 20 to minus 30, depending on [3:50] what polls you look at. You'd make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they're just [3:54] only sort of slightly ahead. Now, to be clear, five points might be enough for them to retake the [3:59] House, which is really a narrow margin. Would not take much at all for Democrats to get this. [4:04] Would blow it. The Senate is a different matter. Yeah, the Senate is a different matter. I think [4:08] five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not [4:13] enough if you apply it to the Senate map. Why do I say that? Because let's just take a look. GOP would [4:18] win the Senate with this map. Let's say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater [4:23] than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49. Why? Because what you [4:29] would see is you would see that the Democrats would flip North Carolina. They would flip Maine, [4:34] but Republicans would hold on to Ohio. They'd hold on to Texas, and they'd hold on to Alaska [4:40] because Donald Trump won all of those states by greater than 10 points. And I will note, [4:47] John and I were talking, you have the NCAA tournament going on. This is sort of the chalk [4:50] scenario going on where the most obvious events actually do occur, because take a look. [4:55] During the Trump era, look at this, flip the Senate seat, midterm and presidential years, [4:59] states the other party won by 10-plus points in the last presidential election, [5:03] zero, zero, zero times that a party flipped those states. So we're talking about places like Texas, [5:09] Alaska, Ohio, where Trump won by double digits. Which is why the Democrats might need a bigger [5:14] lead than they have now if the Senate is really in play. What else is going on now for the Democrats [5:20] that maybe should cause them concern? What might cause them concern? Why is that generic [5:24] congressional ballot lead so low? Because just take a look at this. Net favorability. Party ahead [5:29] at this point. Midterm of years with the GOP president. In 2018, Dems were up by 12. In 2006, [5:35] on net favorability, which party you like more? Dems were ahead by 18. Republicans are actually ahead [5:39] on net favorability at this point by five points. So Democrats are just simply put running behind [5:45] their previous benchmarks, and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the [5:49] United States Senate, given that math. How are they doing with Republicans and Republican-leaning [5:54] independents? Yeah, let's start off with Tucker Carlson, who has been in absolute free fall [6:00] with Republicans. I mean, just take a look at this. Look at this trend line. Tucker Carlson's net [6:04] favorable. Back in March of 2024, when he and Donald Trump were very close friends, look at this. He was [6:10] at plus 54 points. Look at where he is today, at only plus seven points among Republicans, and that [6:16] includes GOP-leaning independents. I mean, that is a drop of, what, 47 percentage points. My goodness [6:23] gracious, when you go up against Donald Trump and you want to appeal to the Republican base, [6:28] to quote the movie Goodberger, you go on the grinder, and that is exactly what has happened to [6:32] Tucker Carlson, who has absolutely collapsed among Republicans. So if it is a choice between the [6:38] president and Tucker Carlson among these voters, what do they basically say? Yeah, they choose Donald [6:42] Trump basically every single time. Look at this. Okay, the exact same poll, this UMass Lowell poll. [6:48] Look at this. Net favorables among Republicans. Again, this is Republicans plus Republican-leaning [6:52] independents. You see Carlson on the right side of your screen at plus seven points. Look at where [6:55] Donald Trump is, at plus 61 points. And this is actually a little bit low for Donald Trump. In other [7:00] polls around the same time, he was even higher than this. Again, he is crushing, crushing Tucker Carlson. [7:05] What is this? This is a 54-point advantage for Donald Trump over Tucker Carlson when it comes [7:12] to who is more popular among Republican voters. And of course, this is even just talking about [7:16] the MAGA base, where Donald Trump is running an approval rating somewhere between 97 and 100%. [7:21] Okay, so what does this mean for Tucker Carlson going forward? Say Tucker Carlson wanted to build [7:26] some kind of a platform where he could run for office, say, president. [7:31] Yeah, okay. So you see Donald Trump crushing, crushing Tucker Carlson here. Take a look at [7:37] this. Look at the calcium prediction markets when it comes to his chance, Tucker Carlson's [7:41] chance to be the 2028 GOP nominee for president. It's just five. When you can put it on one hand, [7:46] you know it's low. It's just 5% that Tucker Carlson actually has enough support within the GOP, [7:51] at least those who are putting their money where their mouth is, to actually be the GOP nominee in [7:55] 2028. Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance are running well ahead of him. [7:58] Okay, so again, in this imaginary world, you know, if the prediction markets are wrong, [8:04] Tucker Carlson were to become a candidate, how might he do? [8:07] Okay, why don't we take a look against the most likely Democratic nominee, Gavin Newsom? And this [8:12] is, I think, so important because it's not just that Tucker Carlson struggles now with Republicans. [8:16] He is electoral poison when it comes to general electorate. So Gavin Newsom versus potential GOP [8:21] nominees in the 2028 presidential matchup. Against Tucker Carlson, look at this, Gavin Newsom crushes, [8:26] crushes Tucker Carlson by 11 points. J.D. Vance actually beat, actually beat Gavin Newsom in this [8:32] poll by three. So Tucker Carlson, very much struggling, runs way behind the GOP baseline [8:37] in the general election as well. You pick, you pick Newsom because he's leading in some of these [8:41] early, early polls. He's the most likely Democratic nominee in the prediction markets at this point. [8:45] Interesting. Vance beats him right now, but Tucker Carlson, not so much. [8:49] Not so much. Not well-liked among Republicans and not well-liked, hated among the general electorate. [8:53] Yeah, okay. So you want to talk about a state that Donald Trump has won three times, three times, [8:59] but it looks to me that Roy Cooper, the former governor of the great state of North Carolina, [9:04] has a real shot here. Look at the cash prediction market. Chance Cooper, the Dem, actually wins this [9:09] race. His chances have gone way up. Back on October 7th, it was 63 percent. Of course, [9:14] that was six months ago. Now, look at this, an 86 percent chance to flip a Senate seat in a state [9:21] that Donald Trump won by three points, and he is the clear favorite at this point, the former governor. [9:27] Now, we call it, we call it chance for a Democratic breakthrough, right? Yes. But one thing I do want [9:32] to point out is, is there have been Democrats in the Senate from North Carolina before, fairly recently, [9:37] but maybe I'm dating myself here. I think you're dating yourself a little bit here, Mr. Berman. Why do I [9:42] say that? Because, in fact, the last Democrat to actually win a Senate race in North Carolina [9:48] was back when I was in college. It was Kay Hagan back in 2008. In fact, the only living former [9:54] Democratic senator is John Edwards, who won all the way back. The last midterm win was in 1998. I was [10:02] in elementary school there, grammar school there, really dating myself. That is how long ago. But as [10:09] you pointed out, this 2008 was a wave year. And what you see is when Democrats do well nationally, [10:15] and they are doing well right now, you can, in fact, flip a Senate seat, as right now, [10:20] Roy Cooper is predicted, forecasted to flip in North Carolina. All right. So in a wave year, [10:25] Democrats can do well because maybe the president's dragging the incumbent party down in the state. [10:31] What is the president's approval in North Carolina? Yeah. Okay. So Donald Trump has won North [10:34] Carolina three times. You won it by three points back in 2024. But right now, he is dragging. He [10:41] is dragging Democrats down. Because just take a look here. Look at this. Okay. Trump's net approval [10:46] rating in North Carolina. John's off on the side laughing. Look at this. In spring of 2025, [10:50] Donald Trump was three points underwater overall. Among independents, he was 18 points underwater. [10:55] Look at how low he has fallen now. Among independents, he's 42 points underwater. And overall, [11:01] he's 15 points underwater. Right now, North Carolina is not a pink state. It is much more of a purple, [11:08] dare I say, light blue state with how unpopular Donald Trump is dragging down Republicans. And he [11:14] may, in fact, push Roy Cooper into the Senate. And again, once again, I'll just point out the [11:19] independence here. And that is a staggering. And I was only laughing at your physicality. You must burn [11:23] thousands of calories during this segment. All right. We're talking about the president's net approval [11:27] there. How about the war? How about the war? This is just another thing that I think is dragging [11:31] down Republicans in the state. Look at this. Net approval of U.S. military action in Iran among [11:35] North Carolinians. Among all voters, 19 points underwater. Again, this independent number. Look [11:41] at this. We're talking 41 points underwater. This war, if it continues on, will continue to drag [11:47] Republican candidates down across the political map. What are you seeing about Melania Trump and how [11:52] her polling is shifting? Yeah, I would say that the American people really don't care for Melania [11:57] Trump. Take a look at this. All right. Let's take a look at Melania Trump's net favorable ratings. [12:02] Look at this. The lowest ever. The lowest ever. We're talking about now 12 points underwater. [12:08] If you go back a little bit more than a year ago, she was three points above water. You go back at this [12:12] point, about this point in term number one for Donald Trump. Look at that. She was 30 points above [12:16] water. So at this point, historic lows for Melania Trump. These numbers are absolutely awful. [12:23] One of the questions is why? Why the shift now? But also, I guess, just look, you need to look at [12:29] this always in the historical context of how does she line up against other first ladies? [12:34] Yeah. Okay. If we look at this historically, the worst ever, the worst ever at this point in term [12:40] number two. Look at this. We got her at 12 points underwater. Look at the rest of these first ladies [12:46] on the board right here. They're all way above water. 42 points above water for Michelle Obama, [12:51] 46 above water for Laura Bush, 25 points above water for Hillary Clinton, who always was not always [12:56] the most popular, and 50 points above water for Nancy Reagan. And I even looked at Joe Biden's [13:03] numbers at this point in that presidency. Of course, that was term one. She was above water as well. [13:07] So this is the worst at this point in a presidency as well. Melania Trump breaking records in the way [13:14] that you don't want to break records. Historically awful she is. The American people really don't [13:19] care for her. And you also, I'm saying you have new numbers or another look at the impact or the [13:24] appeal that she, her appeal after her documentary came out. Yeah. Okay. So you asked in question [13:29] number one, you said, why? What is one of the reasons why? And I think one of the reasons why was [13:33] this documentary. I think a lot of people saw it as political, even if she didn't want it to be. [13:38] And you could just see it here. This is real world data. This is not just the polling data [13:42] that shows the lack of appeal, historic lack of appeal that she has for a first lady. Look at [13:46] the sum of Melania's budget sheet. Look at this. The budget rights and marketing $75 million. That [13:51] was what is estimated to have been spent by Amazon. Compare that to the box office, both domestic and [13:56] international combined. We're talking about 17 million. That makes this a bomb. There was a lot [14:02] of talk when the film came out. Hey, you know, it had a good opening weekend, but then basically it [14:07] stopped making money. So unless Amazon is able to make this up through streaming, this is going to be [14:11] a historic bomb. Amazon spent a ton of money on it. And look at that. Simply put, the money was not [14:18] made back. That coalesces, that combines with the polling data to say that Melania Trump is historically [14:23] unpopular for a first lady. So interesting. Good to see her. Nice to see you. Thank you. John? [14:29] With Artemis up and away, a lot of folks are wondering, when are we finally going to go back to [14:35] the moon? And there's a lot of interest in doing so, in part, thanks to Artemis. Just take a look here. [14:41] Look at these Google searches. Literally up like a rocket. Hello. You know, I had to say it. Look at [14:45] this. Up 669% versus last month. That is the highest ever, the highest ever for a month. We are in it [14:53] right now, higher than at any point since 2004, since we were doing Google searches. And I think [15:00] that the interest level we're seeing right now in Google will translate over to the actual polling data. [15:06] Because if we look at the polling data before Artemis went up in the sky, look at this. Should [15:10] be going to the moon, should going to the moon be a priority? 57%, the majority of Americans said [15:16] yes. But look at this. A very sizable portion, 41%, said no. Now, I will note, one of the things [15:23] that is so interesting about going to the moon and basically all of this travel up into space [15:28] is it's bipartisan. It's bipartisan in an era in which we really don't have much bipartisanship. [15:34] So what we see is majorities of Democrats and Republicans actually said that going to the moon [15:40] should in fact be a priority. And I got to admit, that's not so much of a surprise to me necessarily, [15:47] because again, in this era in which we have such deep polarization, my goodness gracious. I mean, [15:52] we talk about it all the time here. You and I talk about it. Look at this. What is the event that [15:58] created the most America pride, the most pride in being an American? CBS News pulled this back [16:05] at the end of the last decade. And you know what? Even 50 years after we went up and we went to the [16:12] moon, Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, the event that was number one was the moon landing. The moon landing [16:18] was still number one 50 years after the fact. And again, I think we need national pride. So much [16:24] levels of pride are so low. Going back to the moon may in fact be just that antidote in order to [16:30] recreate that pride that we had back in 1969. Of course, there is that question of who will actually [16:37] go to the moon. And many Americans, including myself, kind of want to pass the buck a little bit. [16:43] Because take a look here. Do you yourself want to go to the moon? Just 32%, one in three Americans [16:51] say, yes, they are the ones they themselves want to go to the moon compared to look at this two and [16:56] three who say, you know what? Nah, we're good. We'll stay on terra firma. And you know what? I kind of [17:00] feel that as well. I kind of like terra firma. And I'll note that majorities, just as we were looking [17:06] at the majorities of both Republicans and Democrats say it should be a priority to go to the moon. [17:10] Majorities of Democrats and Republicans say, nah, we're good here on terra firma. But look, [17:15] Artemis is creating a lot of national pride. A lot of folks are asking themselves, when are we going [17:19] to the moon next? And I think that is a question that is going to be asked as we continue to watch [17:24] those astronauts be up there way beyond the clouds. One of the most interesting little nuggets from our [17:30] latest CNN SSRS poll is that Democrats have, get this, a six-point advantage on the generic congressional [17:37] ballot. And they are doing so despite the fact that the party has a 28% favorable rating. [17:43] So how the heck are they doing this? How are they almost seeming to pull a [17:47] rabbit right out of the hat like a magician? Well, it all comes down to this key block of voters, [17:53] this key quarter of the electorate. That is among the 26% who dislike not only the Democratic Party, [17:59] but the Republican Party as well. If you look at their choice for Congress, [18:03] look at this. Democrats have a 55% to 24% advantage. So it turns out that the Democrats, [18:09] in the minds of 26% of the electorate, are the lesser of two evils. And that is why they lead [18:15] in the race for Congress right now by six points overall. Now, this 31-point lead that Democrats have [18:22] right now amongst those double haters, that is very, very different from what we saw four years ago [18:29] when Republicans took control of Congress. Take a look here. Okay. Among voters who dislike both [18:34] parties, again, those double haters, the choice for Congress. This time around, we were talking [18:38] about it. Democrats with a 31-point lead. Look at what it was back in 2022. In the exit poll, [18:43] Republicans won those double haters by 17 points. And that is why they were able to take back the U.S. [18:50] House of Representatives, flip control of that chamber four years ago. This time around, [18:55] it looks like Democrats are going to do it again on the backs of double haters. Double haters, [19:00] again, saying, you know what? Democrats are the lesser of two evils. And the idea of being the [19:05] lesser of two evils really gets at what a lot of voters who are Democrats are feeling, Jessica, [19:10] who are Democrats. Take a look here. How Democrats feel. This is how voters who are Democrats feel. [19:15] Look at this. Only 63%, just 63% of Democratic voters actually view the Democratic Party favorably. [19:24] We're talking about only about two in three. In fact, a little bit less than two in three, [19:28] though within the margin of error than two in three. But look at this. Democrats who plan to vote for [19:33] the Democratic candidate for Congress in 2026, 96%, 96% near 100, near that unanimity, right? Why? [19:47] Because Donald John Trump is the motivating factor for Democrats. Amongst Democrats, 99% of them [19:56] disapprove of Trump. This 99% looks a whole heck of a lot like this 96%, very much unlike the 63%. So the [20:04] bottom line is this, Jessica Dean, as we sit, I don't know, what is it, six months until the midterms? [20:10] Let's see. April, May, June, July, August, September. A little bit more than half a year away, okay? [20:16] A little bit more than half a year away. What we're dealing with here is really simple, [20:20] which is Democrats are leading in the race for Congress by six points despite the fact that they [20:28] have a favorable rating of just 28% because they had a lesser two evils, especially among Democrats. [20:34] To me, it looks like there's a real chance that Viktor Orban goes down to defeat. Just take a look here. [20:39] This is the Caltech prediction market. Look, Chance Orban is Hungary's prime minister [20:42] after the 2026 election. You go back to the beginning of the year, it was basically an even [20:46] split. 48% chance that in fact he would be the prime minister after the election. Down it goes, [20:51] down it goes. We're looking now at just a 31% chance, about a one in three shot. And I was also [20:57] looking at the numbers pre and post J.D. Vance visit. If anything, they might have gone down slightly, [21:03] but there really has been no impact. J.D. Vance not helping out an ally of his [21:08] abroad. Kate was talking to Congressman Don Bacon from Nebraska yesterday who said it's really [21:12] unusual for overt political activity from a president or vice president campaigning for [21:18] a foreign leader there. Is this the type of thing you think based on the polls that Americans want [21:23] to see? No, I was already shaking my head when you were asking the question because the American [21:27] people want the focus to be here, here domestically, not abroad. Just take a look at this. Take a look here. [21:32] Look at this. Trump admin is focusing too much on foreign matters. 58%, 58% of Americans believe [21:39] that the Trump administration is too focused on things abroad. What they believe also is there's [21:43] been too little focus on domestic matters. Look at this. 60% of Americans believe there's been too [21:49] little focus on domestic matters. Now, of course, the Iran war is part of this, right? But this is just [21:54] part of a larger picture. The belief that the presidency and the administration of Donald Trump in his [21:59] second term, they have taken their eye off the ball. They are looking abroad when Americans want them [22:05] looking at home. And of course, J.D. Vance going and campaigning for the prime minister of another [22:10] country that is pretty far away from here is just part of a larger picture that the American people [22:14] dislike. So vice president Vance, how's he doing? How popular? Yeah, J.D. Vance is not doing too hot to [22:20] trot at this point. Look at this. Okay, J.D. Vance's net popularity should actually be a plus. There we go. [22:27] Plus three points. Then we go to minus 18 points at this point. That is a 21-point swing in the wrong [22:36] direction. J.D. Vance started off his vice presidency in plus territory, and now he is in [22:42] negative territory. Down he goes. J.D. Vance getting dragged down along with the president of the United [22:47] States. Where does he run? Maybe along with, maybe because of. We don't know that. But where does he [22:53] rank among other vice presidents? Yeah, you look at other vice presidents, look at this. At this point [22:57] in their vice presidency, historically the worst, worst at this point in a vice presidency. Kamala [23:02] Harris was at minus 13. Mike Pence was at minus 7. Joe Biden was at plus 4. Dick Cheney was at plus [23:08] 37. This might be part of a longer trend of vice presidents becoming unpopular, but we can say J.D. [23:13] Vance is historically the least popular vice president at this point in their vice presidency. [23:17] Yeah, that is notable. It may just be a thing where Americans over time, we just hate everything. [23:21] Yeah, that's true. Increasingly. But I love you. Thank you. I appreciate that. Even though [23:25] a lot less than you did in 2002.