20 minutes of Harry Enten running this week’s numbers

[0:00] President Trump says he will remember U.S. companies that do not seek refunds for the [0:07] tariffs that he put in place. His comments come a day after a refund system for businesses that [0:11] paid tariffs launched. That system was put in place after the Supreme Court struck down the [0:16] president's most sweeping tariffs in February. Here's exactly what the president said. If they [0:23] don't do that, I'll remember them. I will tell you that because I'm looking to make this country [0:27] strong. Supreme Court could have helped us. So he says he'll remember that. That could be seen by [0:34] companies who do ask for the tariff relief as a veiled threat. We'll see what happens, but CNN chief data [0:41] analyst Harry Enten joins us now, and he's got some solid numbers here. Harry, just how pivotal were [0:46] tariffs to Trump's sort of political standing in his second term? Dude, just take the L, man. Just [0:52] take the L. The tariffs were the biggest unforced political error that I can recall in a long period [0:57] of time because if you're looking for just one turning point in terms of when Donald Trump went [1:03] underwater, it was right around Liberation Day. Man, just take a look here. Trump's negative net [1:08] approval rating. Every poll since March 29, 2025, right? Liberation Day was just a few days later. [1:15] That means that Donald Trump, there hasn't been a single poll that meets CNN standards for reporting [1:20] in which he has had anything but a negative net approval rating for 389 days. As I said, dude, [1:27] just take the L. Tariffs are a terrible political thing for you, my man. [1:33] Why were the tariffs really this sort of key to seeing this downturn in the polls? [1:39] Yeah, because, you know, Trump, obviously, he ran on tariffs, right? But the idea was much more [1:44] popular in practice than it actually was, or as an idea than it actually was in practice. Because [1:49] just take a look here. I mean, this just gives you the name of the game. Americans on Trump and [1:54] tariff in the 2024 election versus Kamala Harris. Look at this. Trump was trusted more on tariffs by [1:58] 12 points. But look at his net approval rating down. Look at that. That's an over 40-point shift [2:03] away from the president of the United States. He's 48 points underwater with independence on tariffs. [2:08] This is just a political disaster. And the longer he drags it out, the more and more it can hurt his [2:13] political standing. [2:14] Well, it certainly hurt the economies, not just the people's pockets, businesses' pockets, [2:19] but also the world. Did anyone benefit from this when it comes to, like, global leadership? [2:23] Yeah, the people who stood up against Donald Trump. That's who benefited from it. I mean, [2:27] just take a look here. I mean, Mark Carney, obviously, in Canada. Look at this. His net approval [2:31] rating, plus 24 points. How about the president of Mexico, Claudia Scheinbaum? Look at this. [2:36] Plus 41 points on the net approval rating. So the people who stood up to Trump on tariffs, [2:41] those are the people who benefited. Versus Donald Trump, when he went up against these world leaders, [2:46] well, he just went right straight into the political basement. [2:49] Because you can put money on just about anything these days, you know, when these companies are [2:53] looking at, these prediction markets are looking at this, what do people think about whether or not [2:58] these companies are going to try to get relief? [3:00] Yeah, okay. So the companies at this point are trying to get political relief, Sarah Sider, [3:03] but what about the people themselves, right? What about the chance that you actually get a [3:07] stimulus check, you know, sent out by the end of 2026? The chance has been going down. It's 44%. [3:12] Look at this. It's now 11%. So the American people aren't going to get relief, at least according [3:17] to the prediction markets, on something that they desperately hate very, very much. I said, [3:21] a political disaster for Donald Trump from start to finish. [3:24] Yeah. There was a $2,000 check that people had heard him say. This was sort of around the time [3:28] when he said it. And now they don't think it's going to happen. [3:32] Harry Anton, you know what's happening? You are, buddy. [3:34] I'm happening. We're happening. Long security lines at airports could be coming back. The [3:40] Department of Homeland Security is warning it will run out of money to pay TSA workers by [3:45] early May, just in time for summers, unless Congress reaches an agreement to end the partial [3:50] government shutdown. Yes, that is still ongoing. The stalemate, exactly, on Capitol Hill, [3:56] one of the reasons perhaps that Americans' disapproval of Congress just tied a record high. CNN [4:00] and chief data analyst, Harry Anton, is here. Just how bad is it? [4:05] You know, I just want to say to Congress, stand up and applaud. You're usually hated, [4:09] but usually not this hated. You're reaching, or at least tying record highs in terms of disapproval. [4:15] Hello. 86%, 86% of Americans disapprove of Congress. That is tied with November of 2013 [4:25] for the all-time high. As I said, Congress usually hated, but usually not this hated. You're actually [4:32] managing to tie records. Just 10%, just 10% of Americans approve of the job that Congress [4:39] is doing. So therefore, as I said, stand up and give yourselves a round of applause. You managed to do [4:46] it. Congratulations. Or walk away in shame. This 10% approval, like, give us some context [4:52] to what all of this means in comparison with other things. Okay. So you see this 10% approval, [4:57] and I just was searching my head. I was like, okay, what else basically has 10% of the population [5:03] by their side? Just take a look here. Okay. Americans who say that the moon landing was faked [5:09] back in 1969. Sarah's side, and they're off on the side laughing. More Americans say that the moon [5:15] landing was faked back in 1969, then actually approve of the job that Congress is doing right [5:21] now at 10%. That 10% is equal to the percentage of Americans that believe that the earth is flat. [5:28] Of course, we did not fake the moon landing. We did land on the moon. And of course, the earth [5:33] is actually a sphere, my dear friends. That's the one that made me laugh. Yes. It's not flat. You [5:43] can't walk off the edge of the earth, but apparently the same percentage believe that Congress is a job [5:49] well done. That is brutal. When you look at this, what does this tell you about sort of where Americans' [5:57] minds are and why they are so annoyed or pissed with Congress? Yeah. Pissed is a great word. [6:04] Perturbed is another one. I like my P's early in the morning. But I would just say this. You see this [6:09] 10% right? You go, how the heck did we end up here? You know, Republicans control the House. [6:14] Republicans control the Senate. But yet, Republicans have actually turned on this Congress. Just take a [6:20] look here. I mean, just look at this. Congress's net approval rating among the GOP. Back in March of 2025, [6:25] it was plus 33%. That was the net approval. That was the net approval. Down it goes to minus 56. What [6:33] is that? That's like an 89-point move over a little bit years' time. No wonder at this point, [6:38] Congress is facing record high disapproval rating because even Republicans and their party [6:42] controls Congress absolutely despises it. Wow. Those numbers are abysmal. I don't know what [6:49] Congress can do to fix them. There's nothing. I mean, maybe they can walk off the edge of the flat [6:53] earth. I was going to say, I got one thing they can do. They could actually give a budget, [6:57] approve a budget. They could actually do something, do something, do something. Then maybe people [7:01] might actually like it. All right, Harold. The president likes to talk about the markets, [7:05] mostly when they're up. Correct. Right? But there's a reason for this. There's a reason why he likes to [7:10] talk about the markets at this stage of his administration. Yeah. It's a success story if [7:14] you're in the White House right now, the stock market is. And you can see it right here. Okay, [7:18] S&P 500 shifts at this point in a presidency. You know, coming into today at the close of [7:23] yesterday, look at this, up 19%. That is higher than the average president since 2001, when it's [7:29] up 15%, and way, way higher than the average presidency since 1961, up 6%. So this stock market [7:37] has been up like a rocket. And no wonder the president of the United States wants to talk [7:41] about it. And you'll also notice, Johnny B, when the stock market is up, perhaps Democrats don't want [7:45] to talk about it nearly as much. All right. So what are people saying about whether or not [7:49] it's actually a good time to be in the market? Yeah. Okay. I think one of the reasons why this [7:53] number is up, this percentage is up, is pretty simple. Just take a look here. Stock owners who [7:58] say that investing $1,000 into the market right now is a good idea. You see the majority of them, [8:03] 52% say it's a good idea. I will even note that even 41% of Democrats or lean Democrats who are in the [8:09] stock market currently say it's a good idea to continue to invest in the stock market. So no wonder the [8:14] market is up at this particular point because those who are in it say, hey, it's a good idea to keep [8:19] investing. And we noted this morning markets are down a little bit, but they had been going up over the [8:24] last two weeks, even though they had gone down, way down for much of the war with Iran. But what do you [8:30] think might have turned it around? A ceasefire. This is what the people in the market want. They want [8:36] stability. They want a ceasefire. And you see this across the board. Look at this. Approval of Iran's [8:40] ceasefire agreement among all voters, 74%, among Republicans, 84%, 72% of Democrats, 70% of [8:48] independents. The ceasefire is a very good thing in the eyes of those and the minds of those who are [8:53] involved in the stock market. No wonder we have seen the rallying that's going on. If the ceasefire [8:59] continues to exist, I continue to expect stocks to continue to rise up. This may be one reason why [9:04] the president keeps extending the ceasefire even without any obvious. He's keeping his eyes on the [9:08] stock market for sure. All right. What are the prediction markets saying about where the market is [9:12] headed for the rest of this year? Okay. So you see in slide number one, right, that so far in Trump's [9:16] second term, his second presidency, the stock market has been up like a rocket. The people who are putting [9:22] their money where their miles are, those in the cashier prediction market, chance that the S&P 500 will [9:26] finish up for the year. Up for 2026, you see it right here, 64%. So they are not expecting those gains by the end of [9:33] year. Look, each and every day will have its downs, its ups, etc. But over the long term, those who are [9:38] putting their money where their mouth is expect that the S&P 500 will be up for the year. Show me again [9:41] what the market does over the course of the day. All right. That's intraday trading, ladies and [9:45] gentlemen. Harriet, and thank you very much. What's happening inside Iran has very much to do with the [9:50] current state of the United States economy and inflation, which is what voters regularly tell us in all [9:57] kinds of polling they would like to see the president focused on, not necessarily the military [10:03] conflict. With us now is CNN chief data analyst, Harry Enten. So what am I talking about there? [10:09] When it comes to inflation, which is something that every poll tells us that Americans care about, [10:13] how is the president doing? Yeah, okay. Americans say inflation is the number one [10:17] issue facing them right now. And to quote the great Happy Gilmore, according to them, [10:22] the price is wrong when it comes to the president of the United States. Just take a look at these net [10:26] approval ratings when it comes to inflation. The president of the United States is hitting all [10:30] time record lows in all of these polls and all of them. NBC came out yesterday, 36 points underwater. [10:36] CBS came out a few weeks ago, 38 points underwater. Ipsos, Reuters, 43 points underwater. CNN came out [10:42] earlier this month, 45 points underwater. And taking the cake is UMass Amherst, 47 points underwater [10:50] across all of these polls. Trump is in his worst position ever on the issue that the American [10:56] people say over and over and over again is their key number one issue. [11:00] Was it always thus? [11:00] No, it wasn't this always thus, Mr. Berman. And this is what is so amazing to me. I mean, [11:08] these shifts that we're just seeing, my goodness gracious, voters on Trump and inflation in the [11:12] 2024 election. Remember, Trump got reelected to a second term and Joe Biden got pushed to the curb [11:17] in large part because Americans felt he couldn't handle inflation. Trump was more trusted than Kamala [11:22] Harris on inflation by seven points. Look at his net approval right now. You average all those polls [11:27] on the first side of your screen, 42 points underwater. That is a nearly 50 point shift away [11:32] from the president of the United States. A nearly 50 point shift. That's bad. What's worse? Yeah, [11:38] what's worse? You think this is bad, a nearly 50 point shift. How about a 70 point shift? I'm laughing [11:46] because you never see numbers like this. Look at this. Independence on Trump and inflation in the [11:51] 2024 election versus Harris. Trump was favored by 10 points. Down he goes. Down he goes. He's down to [11:58] 60 points underwater on inflation. That is a 70 point shift and a little bit less than two years [12:05] worth of time. John Berman and I are big baseball fans. And I will tell you, I'm going to go to Trump's [12:11] home borough in Queens because to be honest, it's the only comparison I can think of. Donald Trump is in [12:16] worse shape on inflation right now than the New York Metropolitans are and the NLEs. That is how bad [12:21] and what the Mets just lose their 11th straight. A certain point you stopped counting because there's [12:25] so many. There's two things I just want to point out quickly here. The two words that matter so much [12:29] here are, you know, independence and inflation. These are two areas the president did well on in the last [12:36] election. He did well. This is what is happening here. The strengths that Donald Trump once had [12:42] with the electorate, the things that got him elected to a second term, you can wave adios amigos [12:47] goodbye to them. And why that's so important is even though Trump isn't on the ballot come November, [12:52] a lot of Republicans in Congress are on the ballot. And if these numbers hope, you can wave adios amigos [12:57] goodbye. See you later. Certainly that House majority and maybe that Senate majority as well. [13:02] Harold, thank you very much. You've seen the trend. Virginia jumping into redistricting, [13:07] maybe Florida as well very soon. The trend really all began with Texas 10 months ago, [13:12] redrawing state lines to favor Republicans, a very vocal demand of President Trump. Roughly one year [13:18] later, there are some serious concerns among Republicans that those new lines in Texas [13:23] might not work out like the president intended. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is here now with [13:30] me to run the numbers for us. So just how much of the chance that the GOP have to hold on to those [13:35] house seats since this redistricting happened in Texas? Yeah. Talk about one of your all time [13:40] backfires potentially, because just take a look here, the chance that the GOP holds onto the house, [13:46] you go back to the day that Texas redistricted, according to the cash prediction market, [13:50] it was a 33% chance. You come over to this side of the screen. Well, that is way down. Hello, [13:55] down we go. We're talking about just a 14% chance now that the GOP, in fact, holds onto the house of [14:01] representatives. So despite starting the fire back in Texas all those months ago, it feels so long ago [14:08] because the Republican chances of holding onto the house have absolutely declined. Down we go into the [14:14] water. Look, it's not unusual when the Republicans are in power and then the midterm comes. We've seen [14:20] this with Democrats, Republicans throughout the history. But how much has the national environment moved [14:24] toward them? Yeah. Okay. So, you know, at the end of the day, a rising tide lifts all boats if you're [14:29] the case of a Democratic Party. Right. And what we've seen is a massive shift on the national level. [14:34] You can see in the generic congressional ballot. Just take a look here. I mean, this just tells the [14:39] story. Right. Back when the day that Texas redistricted, the Democrats held a lead on the [14:43] generic ballot, but it was just three points. Since that time, that lead has doubled. It has doubled to [14:49] six points. I don't care how much you redistrict. If you have a six point national environment in your [14:53] favor, if you're the Democrats, Republicans can only redistrict so many seats. And at this point, [14:58] they're actually behind when it comes to redistricting. Democrats have actually gained [15:01] more seats. So not only are you seeing that the redistricting has moved against the Republican [15:05] Party, the national environment has moved against them as well. You got a six point lead. If you're [15:10] the Democrats, this is the type of thing you say, yes, yes, yes. We're getting that majority back. [15:15] And that's why one of the reasons why their chances have gone way, way up in the [15:18] Democratic Republican chances have gone way, way down. What about on the individual level, [15:23] individual seats? Yeah. OK, so you take a look at the national environment here. Right. But what [15:27] about seat by seat analyses like those that are done by inside elections or the Cook Political Report? [15:32] You can see it here. OK, party edge and house seat pickup chances. You know, the day that Texas [15:38] redistricted, look at that. Republicans actually had an edge in terms of the potential seat pickup [15:43] opportunities. That is the toss up seats or those that were leaning in their direction. They had a lead of [15:47] eight. But look at where we are today. Democrats actually hold the lead. They have a net pickup [15:52] opportunity of 12 seats. That's a 20 seat shift, a net shift in their direction. That is partially [15:58] because of the redistricting. It is partially because of the national environment. But the [16:01] bottom line is this. If Donald Trump and the Republican Party thought that they could tilt [16:05] the midterms and their elections because of the Texas redistricting, they were sorely, sorely mistaken. [16:12] It is interesting, though, because now there's a battle in Virginia over the redistricting that [16:15] the voters approved. A judge has halted that for now. So we will have to be watching. But I will say [16:20] that if four seats is what ultimately determines the House of Representatives, then Democrats have [16:25] definitely wasted a big opportunity at this point. I think that the majority would be able to withhold [16:29] withstand that. In the UK, Parliament has passed a bill putting a lifelong ban on anyone born after 2008 [16:36] from buying cigarettes expected to become law next week and create what lawmakers there call a smoke-free [16:43] generation. They hope it will end tobacco use altogether over time and break the cycle of [16:48] addiction and health issues caused by smoking. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is here. Okay, [16:55] so you've got this ban. They're trying to see if they can keep an entire generation from smoking and [17:00] to end it altogether. How do people in the US feel about about cigarettes and smoking now? Yeah, [17:06] you know, I think back and I think to myself, I was looking at my aunt and uncle's, you know, [17:10] wedding album and like half the people there were smoking. And then I look at my parents wedding [17:15] album and that happened 20 years later. And there was like no one smoking. And I mean, this is just [17:19] part of the long term trend here. I mean, Americans who smoke a cigarette in the last week, you know, [17:24] back in 1954, we're talking about nearly half the population 45%. By 74, it was still 40%. But then down [17:32] we go 27% by 1994, 2014, 21%. And in the last year, tied for a record low, just 11% of Americans smoked a [17:42] cigarette in the last year. That is one fourth the number essentially that we had back in 1954. [17:49] Smoking is just something that most Americans no longer do, at least smoking a cigarette. And that's [17:55] the next question because in many states, they're legalizing marijuana or they have legalized or they're [17:59] moving towards it. So what's the difference there between smoking marijuana and smoking [18:04] cigarettes? And you're seeing a rise in one and a fall in the other. You know, if you watch, [18:08] you know, the show Freaks and Geeks, which is a great show that was on in like 1999, [18:12] essentially what you saw was all the kids outside, you know, smoking a cigarette. But now, [18:16] if anything, the quote unquote, the quote unquote, cool kids, what are they doing? They're actually [18:21] smoking marijuana. And take a look here. Americans who smoked or smoked a cigarette in the last week, [18:26] it's just 11% of cigarette marijuana. More people actually smoke marijuana at least somewhat regularly [18:33] than smoked a cigarette in the last week, which is just not something you could have possibly [18:37] imagined 40, 50 years ago. But here we are today where marijuana has been rising in terms of its uses, [18:43] while cigarette smoking has absolutely fallen off the cliff. There's another big thing that I do see [18:49] young people using and that's vaping or e-cigarettes. What does that look like in comparison with regular [18:53] cigarettes? Yeah, okay. So let's add e-cigarettes to it, right? The vaping to it. And you still see [18:58] this downward trend, right? Smoked a cigarette in the last week, including e-cigarettes. You know, [19:03] 54, we mentioned 45%, then 27%. Even there, if you include that number, we're still only talking [19:09] about 16% of Americans who either are doing e-cigarettes or smoking a traditional cigarette in the [19:14] last week. No matter what way you count it up, smoking is just way down from where it was, [19:20] say, 70 years ago. And it's also down from where it was a decade ago. Cigarette smoking, simply put, [19:25] has been on the decline. Though I will note that most Americans don't want to ban, [19:29] they just don't want to do it themselves. But you note here that it's up just a tick [19:33] from smoking cigarettes when you add in the vaping. When you add it in, you add essentially about 5% [19:38] to your population. Yeah, it's interesting. I remember when people were smoking and drinking in the [19:42] newsroom. That's how old I am. Harry Enten, I do appreciate it. Oh, sorry. We've got one more. [19:49] What are you doing? Sign there's ruining my gym here, folks. I swear I wasn't smoking anything. [19:55] Look, we're talking about, you know, the fact that marijuana outrunning smoking. I mean, [19:58] just take a look at this. The chance that the U.S. reschedules marijuana before the end of Trump's [20:02] term, it's right now at a 79% chance. It was 89% a few months ago. But the bottom line is this. [20:07] We're seeing potential real movement in federal regulations as well. We might not close smoking, [20:12] but it may be much easier to smoke marijuana or do marijuana, at least nationally. Without worrying [20:17] about the federal government coming after you because some states already made it legal. And [20:20] that's the thing. That's a big thing. It's a big thing. Harry Enten, it is a pleasure. Thank you. [20:24] There's a lot of jokes I could say. A lot of jokes, but we're high on life. That's what we're high on [20:29] right now. That's right, Harry. Good for us.